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Long Game 109: The Lords of Luthadel


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Posted
59 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Hoid

I see three possibilities

1) Penguin is an elim and Sart is village

2) Sart is lying and penguin is village while Sart is elim. Then, I'd suspect that Aki is also evil

3) Penguin and Sart are both evil, and this is distancing. They'd need a way to be sure that neither of them is exed by this, though, so highly unlikely.

Posted

Lord Markus was still deep in the liquor as noon rolled around. The door to his chambers suddenly cracked open, and he groaned reflexively as a sharp ray of light pierced into his eye. A servant stepped into the rooms, took one look at him, hesitated, and shut the doors again. Five minutes later, the room was swarmed with people, lifting the drapes and cleaning up the bottles strewn around the entire space. Still dizzy, Markus pushed himself to sit with the help of Turion. Good Turion. What would he do without him? As soon as he was settled, Turion turned to Markus with a worried expression.

"Sir - the other Lords await your words. They need a leader, a voice of reason, and expect you to fill that role. But instead of sharing, you have been engaging in..." he glanced at the bottles with distaste, "other activities. They await your return."

Markus sighed. Why did they expect so much? Being a Lord was not supposed to be so serious. It was supposed to be a game of wits and rumors - ballrooms and weddings he could handle. Not dark plots and funeraries. But so was the state they now found themselves in, and Markus found himself sinking into a pit of shame at the thought of his failure. Turion was right, as he always was.

That didn't make it any easier.

"I'll try to make an appearance later," Markus sighed. He didn't miss the sight of Turion wrinkling his nose at the stench of his breath, and he averted his gaze. "For now, I'll say this. I'll need to revise my view of the Lord Kelion. With all the sudden pressure against him, I cannot help but feel we may be putting too much weight on flimsy foundations. I need more information. Try to get into contact with an informer. Perhaps Hoid?"

"He is nowhere to be found, sire." Of course. Anyone intelligent had long since fled this forsaken city.

"Kéamen Wither?"

Once again, Turio hung his head. "Rumor is he's gone to Blackkeep, on the shores of the Black Lake." Markus nodded. He hadn't expected much success.

"Well, find someone. And find me somewhere to work. It is time I gave this another look."

No real post coming tonight. I will try to go back over the events of last night with some new assumptions, particularly since I fear we are blowing my reads about Ruler into something much bigger than they actually are and that is a rabbit hole I do not want to go down. If I remember correctly, much of the reason I suspected him was simply some weird activity, and it was the same with TOW. I don't like how everyone piled up on him, either.

Sart... I don't know. That claim about Penguin is really interesting, because if we kill Penguin today and he doesn't flip evil then Sart is next on the chopping block. So I really see no reason for Sart to lie here, other than maybe to protect Ruler, but why if this is just going to make sure they both end up dead? It feels too easy, and I need to think more on it to see if I'm missing something.

'Night, folks.

Posted (edited)

Akimi is suspicious and is Penguin, I think Penguin is elim. I believe that Akimi is working with them, other then Akimi the other suspicious people are me, Sart and Markus. I would pair Akimi and Markus together in case that Penguin is innocent, but incase these 3 are not innocent you have to vote me and see who joins the train, as other than Sart these were the major voters against me. And someone who has been under the radar is Ksauce.

Edited by ruler of the mists
Posted
9 hours ago, ruler of the mists said:

Akimi is suspicious and is Penguin, I think Penguin is elim. I believe that Akimi is working with them, other then Akimi the other suspicious people are me, Sart and Markus. I would pair Akimi and Markus together in case that Penguin is innocent, but incase these 3 are not innocent you have to vote me and see who joins the train, as other than Sart these were the major voters against me. And someone who has been under the radar is Ksauce.

You also have been under the radar. You pop in and contribute nothing.

Posted

Alright

*rubs hands together*

Here's what I got

Day 1 Timeline (copy pasted from my Night analysis):

Spoiler

Day 1 Timeline: Significant Events (Spoilered for length)

I pop in, post my essay

Penguin pokes Newt

I poke dp

CD pops in, RPs

KSauce pops in, RPs

TOW says he doesn’t like me cause PMs

dp says he wants reads before doing stuff (hey dp - got those reads yet?)

I move poke to Newt to apply more pressure

Sart lurk-votes Akimiko

Akimiko votes Newt for lack of reaction

Sart moves vote to Ruler after Akimiko shows up

Newt makes analysis, votes Akimiko for weird vote

TOW votes Penguin for long posts and vibes

CD lurk-votes Ruler

Ruler shows up to say literally nothing, pokes Penguin

I remove Newt vote, vote TOW for weird posts

Penguin makes analysis, votes Ruler for weird poke

Akimiko votes Ruler for same thing

Sart votes TOW

Penguin votes TOW in self-pres

Newt votes TOW for same as everyone else

Day 1 Timeline: Broken Down

The game begins with a couple votes; Penguin pokes Newt, and I poke dp.

CD and KSauce both pop in to do a little RP, but neglect to make any votes.

Eventually, after almost a full day where like nothing happens, I move my vote Newt in the hopes of applying pressure and shifting the tide. And while I said yesterday that I was disappointed in the ripples my vote had - I take that back. Because, as it turns out, a LOT happened in the next 24 hours. Let's take a look:

VC as of 4:00 PM Wednesday, CST, 29 hours before rollover:

        Newt (2): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure)

Two hours later, Sart makes his first appearance to poke Akimiko for her lurking.

Within ten minutes, Akimiko shows up, and votes Renalis for vague reasons.

VC as of 6:00 PM Wednesday, CST, 27 hours before rollover:

        Newt (3): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure), Akimiko (lack of response)

        Akimiko (1): Sart (lurking)

We can observe clear changes following my attack on Newt. The question is whether there's a relationship; I have no reason to particularly believe there is, but it is interesting.

Following Akimiko's arrival, Sart changes his vote to Ruler, again for inactivity. I actually quite like the strategy he is taking here, and it's important to note this reduces odds of him being elim together with Newt as an elim is unlikely to give up so easily on a counter-train when a partner is in danger.

Two more hours later, Newt shows up, makes some analysis, and decides to vote Akimiko for the weird vote. This is quite understandable, and likely has an element of self-pres - although it's important to note Newt isn't scrambling.

Iced acts unusually normal /s ALTHOUGH he does at one point make a somewhat weird comment telling people to wait for C3 for him to cook

VC at the end of Wednesday, CST, 21 hours before rollover:

        Newt (3): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure), Akimiko (lack of response)

        Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote)

        Ruler (1): Sart (inactivity)

The following morning, TOW popped in and didn't like Penguin's vibes, voting him.

CD shows up, and backs up Sart on Ruler, also for inactivity.

Ruler shows up within the hour, popping in to say literally nothing about the game and eventually settles on a "poke" on Penguin. Something I want to note: the time discrepancy between Ruler's first appearance and poke is more than half an hour, and it's giving me vibes that the latter could have been directed from the elim doc - something like Ruler got told to vote Penguin, but wasn't given reasoning, and so Ruler improvised it into a poke.

VC as of 10:00 AM on Thursday, CST, 11 hours before rollover:

        Newt (3): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure), Akimiko (lack of response)

        Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote)

        Ruler (2): Sart (inactivity), CD (inactivity)

        Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler

There's a lot more to read into here. We're seeing a slight pattern of trains forming. Both CD's and Ruler's backups strike me as somewhat sus, although it's worth noting that Ruler's backup was on a train started by a villager. Could be elims exploring options to save Newt, could be elims just causing chaos, could be villas flailing around, could be a mix of all.

After getting home on Thursday - 19 hours ago according to the Shard, roughly 4:00 PM CST - I withdraw my vote on Newt, and decide to rashly vote TOW instead based off two weird posts (oh, how naive D1 posts are in retrospect).

18 hours ago, Penguin moves vote from Newt to Ruler.

And within the hour, Akimiko moves THEIR vote from Newt to Ruler as well.

VC as of roughly 5:00 PM on Thursday, CST, 4 hours before rollover:

        Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote)

        Ruler (4): Sart (inactivity), CD (inactivity), Penguin (late poke), Akimiko (lack of substance)

        Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler

        TOW (1): Hoid (weird vibes)

THAT is interesting. We see Ruler replace Newt as the main train in one fell swoop. If that was elim intended, it was executed quite smoothly. Things, however, get even crazier as rollover approaches:

First, Sart decides to remove the vote on Ruler, disliking the pileup, and shifts his vote to TOW for some retrospectively very vague reasoning.

CD shows up, and removes his vote from Ruler after Ruler shows up.

VC as of roughly 7:00 PM on Thursday, CST, 2 hours before rollover:

        Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote)

        Ruler (2): Penguin (late poke), Akimiko (lack of substance)

        Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler

        TOW (2): Hoid (weird vibes), Sart (vibes?)

Penguin switches vote to TOW in self-pres.

Newt shows up, decides to cut Akimiko some slack, and votes TOW.

Final VC:

        Ruler (1): Akimiko (lack of substance)

        Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler

        TOW (4): Hoid (weird vibes), Sart (vibes?), Penguin (self-pres), Newt (weird posts)

Day 2 Timeline (that I made right now) (forgive the weird formatting it's copy pasted from a google doc):

I vote Ruler of the Mists for sus vibes

Sart votes Penguin for very weak reasoning - revenge against CD?

Penguin votes Sart, explores some worlds I don’t really understand. I don’t know why he thought Ruler and Sart were of the same alignment, or why me and Newt are likely the same alignment. I do like his thought process that Sart/Newt didn’t die because there’s an elim hiding there - the Theory of Unnatural Survival (TAS) striking again - but honestly, I wouldn’t read too deep into it; it likely boils down to elims just killing someone that won’t give any information to the village, and CD accomplished that.

KSauce votes Ruler for not explaining actions.

Ruler votes me. Not sure why.

Penguin shifts vote to Ruler using reasoning I proposed (no contribution, potential elim guiding hand).

Akimiko votes Ruler for… vibes? RP didn’t make it very clear.

VC as of roughly 1:00 PM on Saturday, CST, 32 hours before rollover:

       Ruler (4): Hoid (sus behavior), KSauce (not explaining actions), Penguin (no contribution), Akimiko (vibes)

        Penguin (1): Sart (revenge against CD)

        Hoid (1): Ruler (???)

Akimiko claims to have found out who was targeting Penguin.

Ruler suspects Akimiko and Penguin, but doesn’t give reasoning. Changes his vote to Penguin.

Ruler says lots of confusing things I don’t really understand, and at one point says a certain behavior should prove him innocent.

Penguin claims Newt targeted me - he had already told me that via PM.

KSauce pops in to RP a little. Doesn’t seem very committed to solving.

Book does lots of analysis (on that note, why would I mind that you steal my format? I’m glad you found it useful 😋), votes Sart cause she doesn’t like the Ruler pileup

Sart shows up, suddenly claims Penguin targeted two people last night. I really see no reason for Sart to lie about this. If he’s elim, and Penguin isn’t, then Sart is going to die next cycle. More on this later. (Also, Sart votes Penguin again, seemingly having forgotten he already did that)

VC as of roughly 1:00 PM on Saturday, CST, 32 hours before rollover:

       Ruler (4): Hoid (sus behavior), KSauce (not explaining actions), Penguin (no contribution), Akimiko (vibes)

        Penguin (1): Sart (targeting two players), Ruler (???)

        Sart (1): Book (dislikes Ruler pileup)

KSauce agrees with Sart, moves vote to Penguin. Makes up some possibilities.

After all that, nothing much happens until now.

What I got from all this chaos:

Well, there really ain't that much chaos.

I think we can all agree that Sart ≠ Penguin. In fact, I really don't think there is much to debate here, but let's go over the worlds anyways:

If e!Sart/v!Penguin:

For some reason, e!Sart thought it would be a good idea to out himself. The only possible reason I see for this is perhaps in a world where e!Ruler is also true, and this is some weird gambit to defend Ruler.

This could ALSO be a very elaborate, yet honestly kinda genius, move to ensure village loss if Ruler is villa. Allow me to explain:

This cycle we exe Penguin. Penguin flips village.

Next cycle, we have four villagers and three elims. We hit ly/lo (lynch or lose). But it's okay, cause we exe Sart, and he flips elim.

The following cycle, we have three villagers and two elims. Once again, we are at ly/lo (once you hit it, it's really hard to get out). This is where things get interesting.

The natural move here is to exe Ruler, because why else would e!Sart make this gambit? And so we exe Ruler. If Ruler is elim, we go into the next cycle with two villagers and one elim, prepared for the final showdown. But if Ruler is village... then the elims win. Then this insane elim play somehow worked. Lowkey, if that happened, it would be absolutely insane. The ultimate sacrifice for an ensured victory. But that world is unlikely.

If v!Sart/e!Penguin:

Sart is telling the truth.

This cycle, we exe Penguin. Penguin flips elim.

Next cycle, we have five villagers and two elims. Sart is almost 100% cleared. Game continues as normal.

In this world, I have only one question for Sart. One nagging thought. Why didn't he reveal what he knew earlier? Why wait so long?

Other Conclusions and Cross-References:

For now, I'm willing to exe Penguin and see what happens. Sorry, bro, but I'm finding it hard to buy you right now. If you have anything else to say, now is the time to say it.

Let's plug v!Coder into yesterday's timeline (not gonna physically do it):

This seems like an important step to take. Here's what stands out to me:

Coder backed up Sart's vote on Ruler for inactivity on Thursday, 11 hours before rollover.

Aaaaaand Coder didn't do anything else. Yup. Safe kill by elims.

With that done, now, we can also start solving for what happens past this cycle. Let's assume an e!Penguin, v!Sart world. Who are Penguin's teammates?

Let's plug v!Sart and e!Penguin into yesterday's timeline (not gonna physically do it):

What stands out:

TOW (notably village) starts a train on Penguin that is joined by Ruler as a weird poke. Ruler here is most likely either village or very confused elim - leaning more towards village.

As the train on Newt dissolves, Penguin moves his vote to Ruler. What this does in the context of the situation is it pushes the train on Ruler over the train on Penguin. So... basically, it's just self-pres with some reasoning attached. But it does tell us that he's very unlikely to be with Ruler, otherwise he'd look for a third option (both Akimiko and TOW were on the table).

Akimiko joins the train on Ruler after Penguin for a lack of substance - could be helping ensure Penguin doesn't get exed.

Sart shifts his vote to TOW for some quite vague reasons. TOW train is now equal to Penguin train. CD removes his vote. Now TOW, Penguin, and Ruler are all equal.

Penguin switches his vote to TOW in very understandable self-pres.

What I got from all this is:

e!Ruler ≠ e!Penguin

I already had that in my analysis from yesterday, but I'm almost certain of it now.

And, more interestingly, e!Penguin ≈ e!Akimiko

That's also supported by their behavior voting Ruler in succession today

So uhh all this really doesn't tell us anything new

Assuming Penguin and Akimiko are elim together, who could be their third? I'm really not sure, but I'm looking at potentially KSauce cause I don't like his behavior - although his vote on Penguin recently is very weird with that

Assuming Sart and Ruler are elim, there I could see KSauce as an elim third much more easily.

For now, I'm gonna take a break, but:

Ruler

Penguin

Let's see where this takes us

Essay on it's way cause I DO want that Political Power 😋

Posted

It’s a fascinating study, the way fear permeates every council chamber and aristocratic hall. The very dust motes suspended in the weak, artificial light tell a story of shock, outrage, when the news arrived that Your Mistakes had paid the ultimate price was delivered not all that long ago. In fact it was only this morning that he was found dead, his body ravaged with metal.

But the gears of power rarely turn with such simple elegance. His swift removal was a strategic precursor, a calculated loosening of the very foundations of this precarious structure of governance. It was never an ending; it was merely the first, necessary step in a much longer, more intricate gambit.

And King Elend Venture—bless his naive, academic heart—appears entirely blind to the true nature of the events unfolding around him. He is a man who sees conspiracies and elaborate plots, yes, but his mind is still steeped in the grand, dramatic narratives of the historical tomes he loves so dearly. He is looking for a stage play with clear villains and heroes. He is not attuned to the subtle, quiet, and precise machinations that truly dictate the flow of power. He overlooks the small, precise manipulation of emotions, the way a tiny, almost imperceptible movement in one corner of the board can ultimately lead to the downfall of the king in the other.

I have already begun to identify the type of Allomancer likely employed in that chaotic, clumsy affair. The attack was clearly intended to be fatal, yet it missed its mark in such a peculiar fashion. Curious, that. It suggests the involvement of a highly capable individual—a Mistborn, perhaps, with far more to gain from a wounded, destabilized king than a dead one. Or perhaps just a Misting with a single, highly specialized and deadly purpose. The specifics of the Allomancy point to a mind capable of planning several steps ahead.

One thing is certain: they will try again. And they will learn from the messy affair that was the first attempt. The next strike will not involve a convenient, easily identifiable scapegoat like Your Mistakes. It will be clean. Precise. And it will be final.

I see the pattern now, clearer than the morning mists over Luthadel. The way every piece fits together, the way the key players are being subtly maneuvered into position. The end of this fragile, hopeful era is fast approaching, and Elend Venture is destined to be the final move in someone else’s complex game. The board has been cleared of distractions, the path of the final assault has been paved. All that remains is for the king to fall. The game is almost over.

The less chaos, the better for everyone simply trying to survive in this new world. The public's fear is a weapon, not an accident. Rumors of ancient prophecies and the Lord Ruler's return are being deliberately seeded to create a smokescreen, drawing attention away from the real plotters. These are not mystical figures, but quiet manipulators with very real, very mundane goals. They are using the populace's own panic to destabilize the very society Elend is trying to build. This is a masterful strategy: turn the people into the king’s greatest threat.

 

Posted

Markus felt the stares rest upon him as he walked out of the council building, past the rows and lines of fretful nobles and restless Skaa. His head remained far from clear, but his gaze was precise, the path his feet trodded leaving no uncertainty. This was a man headed to see the King.

The gears of power never turned with elegance. He understood that now. For there was nothing elegant, nothing beautiful, in blood and fear. Calculated chaos was the ultimate knife to those too blinded by their sophistication to glimpse worlds beyond it. Those who saw only worlds of strategy and intrigue, and believed everyone would play by their rules. The Lord Ruler… Straff Venture… they had all fallen the same way. Failing to see the truth. Elegance was a lie. It was passion that held the reins.

And King Elend Venture - bless his foolish, scholarly heart - didn’t live entirely in any world. He was not new to these plots, but had never payed them much attention. He was too trapped in his villains and heroes, he failed to realize neither existed. And yet, he had passion. Passion many of the old rusts in the court could do well to taste more of. And so he presented an opportunity. A man who could be molded, so as to live in both worlds. A man who was not yet ready - but with the potential to become the Emperor they needed.

Markus didn’t truly care what type of Allomancer was used to kill Your Mistakes. He didn’t care about the knife, the pawn or the lever. And yet he sought to live out his days in his wine and gold, not having to worry about such threats and deceit. So, with every beat of his weary heart, he was forced to care. Because he was left no choice.

One thing was certain: this was far from over. These games, these gears would continue to turn, and the blood and fear would never stop flowing until change was achieved. Every day, the conspirers plotted. And their plots evolved. Until their next strike would hit right where they were weakest. Final.

The pattern was clear, clearer than the mists beneath the beating sun of the noon heat. This cycle was unending, but it was not inevitable. Victory… change… for so long it had seemed unreachable. But it was no longer so. Every day, the Final Empire died a little more. Many whispered it would rise again. And so it would, if they did not act now. If they did not choose now. If they did not stop it now.

There was no end to chaos. But there could be a death to this ruined façade of elegance, to these plots of passion. The mist could be - had to be - pulled away. Revealing not mythical figures and prophecied events, but men. Men that could fall. Or rise, to unimaginable heights. The people were only the king’s greatest threat so long as he did not see them. Did not heed them. Did not pull back their veils. This was the solution.

Markus felt the stares fall away behind him as he rose up the elaborate steps of Keep Venture, walked it’s halls stained with legacies of pain, and knelt before his King.

Posted

Well there goes my Sart / Penguin elims-playing-each-other-off theory, unless both of them are playing a REALLY deep game combined with sacrificing one elim or smth.

Going to redact my vote on Sart bc most of my reasons for voting Sart have been redacted for now. Certainly explains why Sart's was "trying too hard to vote Penguin". Or, you know, does the opposite entirely, and introduces a whole group of new questions about if e!Sart what e!Sart hopes to achieve. 

And going to vote for Penguin, although for some reason something feels off. I don't know what, it just feels too easy if that makes any sense. But whenever I try to think through why Sart would try to get us to vote out v!Penguin, I end up with conspiracy theory level rabbit holes. Still though, something feels off with Sart. It might be connected to the Ruler train, but why would elims sacrifice one elim for another? But yeah there's definitely 1, probably 2 elims somewhere in there, I just can't figure out where

Posted
4 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

Well there goes my Sart / Penguin elims-playing-each-other-off theory, unless both of them are playing a REALLY deep game combined with sacrificing one elim or smth.

Going to redact my vote on Sart bc most of my reasons for voting Sart have been redacted for now. Certainly explains why Sart's was "trying too hard to vote Penguin". Or, you know, does the opposite entirely, and introduces a whole group of new questions about if e!Sart what e!Sart hopes to achieve. 

And going to vote for Penguin, although for some reason something feels off. I don't know what, it just feels too easy if that makes any sense. But whenever I try to think through why Sart would try to get us to vote out v!Penguin, I end up with conspiracy theory level rabbit holes. Still though, something feels off with Sart. It might be connected to the Ruler train, but why would elims sacrifice one elim for another? But yeah there's definitely 1, probably 2 elims somewhere in there, I just can't figure out where

It feels too easy to me too

But no matter how you slice it, I see no physical way for Sart and Penguin to both be villa, and so we can leave any solving past that to later days

I think there’s a good chance we just got lucky with Sart’s investigation into Penguin

Posted
12 minutes ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

VC:

Ruler (2): Penguin, Aki

Penguin (5): Sart, Ruler, KSauce, Hoid, Newt

So ya'll know, I'm going to school soon.

Alright

See ya

Posted
2 minutes ago, Akimikoisthecutest said:

No guys I really think it's ruler. He shows up and says confusing stuff and then leaves with no explanation of why he voted that way. 

And what do you have to say about the Sart/Penguin situation?

Posted
1 minute ago, Akimikoisthecutest said:

Penguin told me in a Pm that we could figure it out together.

Okayyyy

And what could you figure out?

Posted
6 minutes ago, Akimikoisthecutest said:

He told me that Ruler was an eliminator.

Was he playing with me?

Almost definitely

He told you you could figure it out together and then proceeded to bring up something that had nothing to do with it?

Regardless of whether or not Ruler is an elim, I doubt you can deny that neither of Penguin nor Sart are elim, and there is little to no reason for e!Sart to make this move

Posted

Alright, this exchange is getting more and more funky

Akimiko (do you prefer Aki?), I'm finding it really hard right now to believe you're not an elim flailing around trying to find any excuse to not vote Penguin. If you're truly being genuine, then

47 minutes ago, Akimikoisthecutest said:

@IcedOutPenguin you should know better than to take advantage of new players!

you've accepted that Penguin isn't holding up his end of your bargain, so why not vote him? As I've explained in previous posts, if we exe Penguin today, we for sure catch an elim either this cycle or the next one. It's, I would say, a better than 50% chance that he's elim, and it would give us more information than we would get from any other kill.

Posted

Let's do a reads list.

  • Penguin: Obviously evil. I don't need to really go into more detail here.
  • dplost: Almost totally inactive. I saw that they have logged on two hours ago, so hopefully we get more out of them. Leaning evil, just because I want activity.
  • Akmiko: Either she's been totally pocketed by Penguin, or she is on Penguin's team. Either way it doesn't look good for her. Leaning evil.
  • Booknewt: On the one hand, he was poke vote from Penguin on Day 1. However, I'm not sure that's very alignment indictative. Also voted on me, which is tainting my perception a little. Neutral read.
  • KSauce: They haven't been the most active player, and feel like they are going a bit under the radar. Something feels a little off, but I'm not sure what. Neutral read.
  • Hoid Slayer: My paranoia is getting to me. While I certainly appreciate their contributions, I'm worried they are deep wolfing. Neutral read.
  • RulerOfTheMists: I don't see any world where they are evil in an evil Penguin world. Is there logic sometimes questionable? Yes, but that doesn't make them evil. Village Read.
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