Hint toward space age population of Cosmere

[A Simple Pilgrim]

I've always been interested in demographics and populations, and have tried (often fruitlessly) to calculate the population of worlds in the Cosmere, how they are distributed, and the economies associated with that. 

For a while, I've been wondering what sort of scale of space opera the Cosmere would develop into. It could have been very small, like that of the The Expanse with 2 major planets in a Cold War, and a dozen or so minor worlds struggling to find their place between or away from them. Or it could be a very large scale like Star Wars, 40k, Dune, or Foundation. 

Now, the fact that the events of the Cosmere would be so influenced by a few significant planets and their empires implies a size smaller than some of the listed settings, but the exact scale remained unclear. Now we have a pretty good guess. 

In the first chapter of Sunlit Man, Nomad reflects on his inability to prevent deaths as 'millions, or maybe billions, die every day'. That number actually says a lot, as currently on Earth we have a population of 8 billion, yet only suffer 150,000 deaths per day. With this we can do simple calculations for population based on some variables we can manipulate. If the total number of deaths were 10 million for instance, and the Cosmere was twice as deadly as Earth today, that would give us a Cosmere with about 270 billion people in it. Personally I'm inclined to a higher number, as I don't think Nomad would be off by 2 orders of magnitude, after having been to tens of different worlds. 200 million deaths a day would imply a population between 5-10 trillion for example. 

As it seems unlikely we will get planets with 100s of billions of people, the ease of travel off world would probably prevent that level of density, that implies that the Cosmere probably has a number of inhabited worlds in the thousands, perhaps a bit over 10,000. That would give you a setting of about equal size to the first Dune novel, or Star Trek. The question we will have to see in more future books is how many of these worlds have fallen into one of the factions, and just what scale of galactic war could the Rosharans and Scadrians unleash?

[Werewolff Studios]

27 minutes ago, A Simple Pilgrim said:

I've always been interested in demographics and populations, and have tried (often fruitlessly) to calculate the population of worlds in the Cosmere, how they are distributed, and the economies associated with that. 

For a while, I've been wondering what sort of scale of space opera the Cosmere would develop into. It could have been very small, like that of the The Expanse with 2 major planets in a Cold War, and a dozen or so minor worlds struggling to find their place between or away from them. Or it could be a very large scale like Star Wars, 40k, Dune, or Foundation. 

Now, the fact that the events of the Cosmere would be so influenced by a few significant planets and their empires implies a size smaller than some of the listed settings, but the exact scale remained unclear. Now we have a pretty good guess. 

In the first chapter of Sunlit Man, Nomad reflects on his inability to prevent deaths as 'millions, or maybe billions, die every day'. That number actually says a lot, as currently on Earth we have a population of 8 billion, yet only suffer 150,000 deaths per day. With this we can do simple calculations for population based on some variables we can manipulate. If the total number of deaths were 10 million for instance, and the Cosmere was twice as deadly as Earth today, that would give us a Cosmere with about 270 billion people in it. Personally I'm inclined to a higher number, as I don't think Nomad would be off by 2 orders of magnitude, after having been to tens of different worlds. 200 million deaths a day would imply a population between 5-10 trillion for example. 

As it seems unlikely we will get planets with 100s of billions of people, the ease of travel off world would probably prevent that level of density, that implies that the Cosmere probably has a number of inhabited worlds in the thousands, perhaps a bit over 10,000. That would give you a setting of about equal size to the first Dune novel, or Star Trek. The question we will have to see in more future books is how many of these worlds have fallen into one of the factions, and just what scale of galactic war could the Rosharans and Scadrians unleash?

It's an interesting question for sure, one I think (and hope) we'll see explored as more of the world maps' get revealed. 

However, regarding Siggy's perspective on deaths in the cosmere, Brandon did have this to say last year:

Quote

VeryNiceName16

Sigzil mentions that perhaps billions of people die every day in the Cosmere. This would require about 6000 modern earths. Was this a mistake, or has the scale dramatically increased from the 50-100 stars you mentioned?

Brandon Sanderson

Nah, it's Sigzil exaggerating. He's Hoid's apprentice, he has dramatic license and hyperbole as a tool that he can use at will. He has no idea how many people actually die, he's not gonna run the- well, he could run the math, he's that type of person, but he has not run that math.

Secret Project #4 Reveal and Livestream (March 29, 2022)

Edit: I also found the WOB where he mentions the rough size of the cosmere. See below:

Quote

Questioner

Is there a center to the cosmere?

Brandon Sanderson

There isn't a center in the cosmere... I keep calling it a dwarf galaxy but I think they decided it's a cluster, instead of a dwarf galaxy.

Overlord Jebus

Even a dwarf galaxy is still really big.

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah, still too big. So we had to call it a cluster. Because we only wanted like what, we came up with 50 or 100 stars? So it's a cluster. Or a really dwarf galaxy.

Emerald City Comic Con 2018 (March 1, 2018)

 

Edited October 15 by Werewolff Studios
Added context

[A Simple Pilgrim]

39 minutes ago, Werewolff Studios said:

It's an interesting question for sure, one I think (and hope) we'll see explored as more of the world maps' get revealed. 

However, regarding Siggy's perspective on deaths in the cosmere, Brandon did have this to say last year:

Edit: I also found the WOB where he mentions the rough size of the cosmere. See below:

 

I was aware of the WOB where he says the Cosmere is quite small, but had assumed that meant the pre-space age size. I hadn't seen that reveal stream however, as I was avoiding spoilers at the time.

 

If the total Cosmere only has 50-100 stars, and Khriss is right that Drominad system has the most settled planets around a single star at 3, then that means that Sizgil has probably skipped to the majority of all the inhabited worlds of the Cosmere!

 

 

[Werewolff Studios]

45 minutes ago, A Simple Pilgrim said:

If the total Cosmere only has 50-100 stars, and Khriss is right that Drominad system has the most settled planets around a single star at 3, then that means that Sizgil has probably skipped to the majority of all the inhabited worlds of the Cosmere!

Hmm, good point! I wonder if he's actually Skipped to the same planets multiple times, but different regions with more unique forms of Investiture (eg ChayShan vs the Aons on Sel). Would be hard for him to confirm, since his Linguistic Connection would likely link him only to the region if the planet was sufficiently large.