Salmon Meerkat Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: your post was in response to mine, so I made that conclusion. sorry Ah, sorry. Your post was a helpful springboard, but it wasn't you you - it's about the general Rhino reasons offered. I think one could say the same of Heron, as I'm very much pressuring him on, because that seems more odd to me. I apologise for the distress caused.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 I consider myself fairly chastised. I hadn't intended my vote to appear like an attempted role-exe. It's a gut read, but Meerkat is right. Even if Rhino is elim, we won't learn much from it. And this sudden pile is uncomfortable. Heron
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 so for the the current vote tally heron has a total of three votes from axolotl meerkat beagle albatross has no votes presently and previously had votes from beagle rhino has a total of two votes from zebra heron and previously had votes from ostrich flamingo beagle beagle has a total of two votes from penguin ostrich been trying to look at various people like some of the other low actives like mouse elephant and rhino in addition to beagle and heron given theyve been the main suggests this turn ill try look at other later but ive limited energy for this so theyll do for the mo not immediately sus of mouse based on the voting stuff i talked about in my previous post rhino has contributed nothing but a single post where they vote falcon over gorilla or beagle suppose theyve managed to avoid the filter but possibly more someone id wonder about asking the coinshot to kill or if beagle ends up flipping elim then look at rhino again rhino is an improvement on elephant though one would think an elim would be less blatantly filter dodging but suppose ive seen that strat before seems like the main argument for beagle is the penguin post while the key thing for heron is possibly this cycles post at least its this cycles post that stands out as a little weird to me though some of it could be from being low active and so not paying attention and trying to post analysis without having spent sufficient time or something think at the moment im inclined to put a vote on beagle as penguins post seems fairly reasonable and at the very least a beagle flip i think could inform somewhat on rhino will try have more of a look to see if theres more info that could be gotten from either a beagle or heron flip
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) Think my general view is I enter the game presuming players won't sheep me - this is likely a bit of holdover from my brain being stuck in LG20 days where my life expectancy terminated at N3 but nevertheless: A. I'm just one player, I make mistakes. I Village-read Cham D1 and voted for Iguana over Gorilla D2. By not sheeping me, we check each other's reasoning. This is the best way we keep each other honest and ensure our highest chance of finding Spiked. B. You guys still don't know my alignment. If I am the game's biggest ever deepwolf, then by sheeping me, you guarantee a Village loss C. If I'm wrong, which I often am, Elim players can slip by by claiming they're sheeping me because then they don't have to justify their responsibility for a bad lynch. In general, there are many reasons I don't like sheeping. These are some of the reasons why. It also places a significant amount of pressure on me to get things right because I'm aware the Village relies on me and that's not fair to the Village because it deserves a better anchor, and that's not fair to me either because I will give everything I absolutely have or can to try to get things right but it usually won't be enough and all we get is an exercise in mutual self-destruction. It's lose/lose for the Village and me. Game shouldn't depend on one player. Everyone is expendable, and so am I. I like discussing suspicions with players because I think it's a good way for me to refine things I overlooked, and hopefully we both benefit from the exercise. Talking to some players made me realise I was cutting Beagle too much slack just because I assumed I knew her player meta. But that's not the way to go. The KGB is a circle of accountability. Spoiler For what it's worth, I like that you [Edit= Flamingo] brought the Alb issue up again, because at least I can read this as a consistent player tendency - it's one thing if you always want to go after Alb anyway for the survival and then Rhino came along. It's another thing if a player doesn't at all care about Alb's survival and then suddenly strongly dislikes Rhino's survival and votes on Rhino. The lack of 'convenience voting' looks a bit more Village to me, which is helpful. Ultimately, it looks like this cycle, I'm going to be forced to choose between <Heron, Beagle, and Rhino.> I don't know that this is an appealing choice but it is the way it is. I don't deny Rhino could be Evil but we've had rampant inactivity (meaning they're probably not putting in kills if they are Evil), and also, that Falcon vote. Which I'd really like to know more about since Cham apparently solicited both Alb and Mouse to make Iguana votes on different days - is Cham also soliciting votes in Rhino's case or not? Unfortunately, Rhino is inactive so there's nothing I can do on that front. Rhino would not be my first choice because Rhino's flip isn't very helpful except in terms of working out the Coinshot. (And even then, maybe.) Being an inactive has that problem. Heron. I don't know if my player ID read of Heron is confounding the issue or if I just tend to read any player with weird reasoning as being Sart (sorry Sart, QF46 though.) Heron feels a bit like Vegemite - which is to say you almost have to read how out of the loop they are and how they consistently fail to read the gamestate as being very Village or very Evil. I'm currently leaning light Village but their refusal to vote for one of their stronger suspicions raises my hackles. But suppose this is an indicator of Evil. Suppose Heron went for Rhino because Beagle and Heron are Evil teammates. The problem is this doesn't explain why Heron diluted the vote onto Beagle D5. Sure, they were all fresh trains, but this means we had three Elims under threat (Heron, Beagle, Cham) before the Cham train took off. I don't know how plausible that seems to me. Maybe moderately so but the last extreme bussing scenario that comes to mind involved an Elim team with a Smoked Rioter, i.e. the capacity to control the vote with up to a 4 vote voteswing. I don't think we have reason to see that in this game. If we did, then Gorilla should never have died. Which means, by process of Elimination, I'm left with Beagle. The problems with Beagle are multiple, in my view. I agree with Penguin that the Beagle-sized blindspot in Hyena's and Cham's analysis is concerning. And then there's the vote movements: Quote Salmon Meerkat (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly Emerald Falcon (3): Salmon Meerkat, Amethyst Scorpion, Pearl Chameleon Turquoise Gorilla (2): Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon Cham's vote tracker is wrong, by the way. This comes at just close to four hours to rollover. From the mood in thread, Cham must have worked out that I was not likely to be lynched, though I suppose he had a slight preference towards Lurcher!Falcon being lynched. But what's really interesting is that we know Gorilla has attracted attention, and Cham chooses to go for Falcon over the Gorilla or Beagle trains. He also lightly defends Beagle in the process: Quote I do not understand the suspicion of Beagle. It seems, to me, to be a reaction to them being cautious of the Tineye message, correct? Personally, I do not think their reaction was unwarranted, especially since it turns out that Meerkat was simply playing us all along. I believe that we all got up in the confusion of what was happening, that no one thought to question where this intel from a Tineye was coming from. Beagle then remains off his lynch list. The next vote comes from Rhino, which is why I wonder about vote solicitation from Cham. Was this an attempt to kill Falcon or to save Gorilla? Or both? It's done with a lot of hedging but ultimately decided Falcon is weirdest of Beagle/Falcon/Gorilla. That vote safely turns the Falcon train to a four-vote train: Quote Salmon Meerkat (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly Emerald Falcon (4): Salmon Meerkat, Amethyst Scorpion, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhino Turquoise Gorilla (2): Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon Not much movement for a while after that and some squabbling. But then: Quote Salmon Meerkat (2): Melon Dingo Emerald Falcon (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhino Turquoise Gorilla (5): Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Salmon Meerkat, Fuchsia Ostrich, Quartz Zebra Oxblood Beagle (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron Arise Riders of Theoden! The King of the Side-Train has come! And after an exchange with Ostrich and Heron in thread, I join in Gorilla Delenda Est mode. Suddenly a Elim is in danger and tied with Falcon. Ostrich and Zebra go onto the Gorilla train soon after. And then Beagle votes Falcon. This is apparently based off a reads list that has been in the works for a while, which means this could plausibly come before Ostrich and Zebra or somewhere between them, but temporally the vote goes on after, and the Falcon CW chases the Gorilla CW. I feel much better about Zebra from this, by the way. Quote Salmon Meerkat (2): Melon Dingo Emerald Falcon (4): Amethyst Scorpion, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhino, Oxblood Beagle Turquoise Gorilla (5): Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Salmon Meerkat, Fuchsia Ostrich, Quartz Zebra Oxblood Beagle (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron Scorpion goes off eventually onto Gorilla after a detour through Flamingo, and Vulture goes onto Falcon but with the understanding that he's ready to swap to Gorilla because he agrees with the Gorilla arguments and the Rioter isn't willing to go for Falcon (sorry Swan lol.) To me, the resistance to Gorilla indicates that Falcon had to be the CW. This automatically means we should look at everyone on that CW. We've found that Cham was Evil, and the biggest question marks accrue to Rhino and to Beagle. Beagle was also very, very resistant to voting Gorilla via PMs, even at a time where PM groups were worried the Elims had a Rioter (Vulture's Falcon theory) and that they could marshall up to a four vote voteswing. I think it's okay for Villagers to stick to their guns, but it's also understandable if people suspect you for it, when that makes you a voter on a Villager-CW as opposed to the main Elim train. Finally - though I think this isn't watertight, three players apart from myself knew I would be Lurched last Night. The thread specifically was told that the Lurcher had Lurched no one N4, leaving open the possibility I would be Lurched last Night. Beagle was the only player told the Lurcher was going to be Lurching a high-value target and I was going to be exposed. I don't think this is watertight because both Axl and Scorp seemed to nevertheless anticipate I would be killed N5. But it is what it is. I'm divided because I really don't want to think Beagle is Evil and I'd really rather not but I have a stronger case for Beagle as compared to Heron so I guess that's where I'm led to for now. Don't know if I'll be back much as I need rest and I have caught a bad bug and the meds make me tired. Edited January 20, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) Vote count: Mint Heron (2): Violet Axolotl, Oxblood Beagle Plum Rhinoceros (2): Quartz Zebra, Mint Heron Oxblood Beagle (4): Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Ivory Dragonfly, Salmon Meerkat Edited January 20, 2022 by Chartreuse Penguin fixed vc
Quartz Zebra Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) shoot i def dont like that sudden rhino train i mean, its mostly gone now, but still that was....ugh Rhino. I was just trying to pressure them to roleclaim or give us something to go off of. I'm not sure i like this sudden switch to beagle either. then again, i trust meerkat quite a bit. then again again, they are only human and could simply be wrong. then again again again they certainly have a better read of this situation than I do due to them being more active. then again again again again that might mean they have some bias or investment in this rn. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm How much vote manip do we think the elims have rn? i think i'll go with...Heron? yeah sure. Heron, and let's smack a ghost vote on Beagle. Edited January 20, 2022 by Quartz Zebra
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said: How much vote manip do we think the elims have rn? Unclear, but if they did, Gorilla shouldn't have died. Smoked Rioter = 4 vote voteswing. Very likely they have a Smoker due to Seeker potential (unless we have just one Mistborn so GMs decided to let them take the L, in which case I'm gonna say they may have a Rioter.)
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 I'm my defense, my vote is not sheeping. I have my own reasons to suspect Heron, and my first votes this turn should have held to what I'd been saying in PMs. I don't know why they weren't, honestly. Not my best game. My reasons for not voting Cham and Gorilla we're due to my lack of attention D1. I had been following the thread, but most of the talking happened while I was asleep and I was on mobile only, so I skimmed. From what I caught, it seemed the suspicion mostly came from disagreements on distro and style. After that, the suspicion mostly relied on reverting to D1 arguments. Once I read through it for analysis this turn, I finally see what the suspicion was all about, and am disappointed for not having pursued it sooner. As for the "high value target" thing, who else would I consider to fill that role from your perspective? Certainly not me, and not your other trustee for role reasons. You didn't trust anyone else. I assumed you were being misleading for opsec. Just in case I was wrong, I said my farewells, because it was obvious elims would at least try.
Quartz Zebra Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 Heron Beagle didn't like that last post at all
Violet Axolotl Posted January 20, 2022 Posted January 20, 2022 A stillness hung in the common room of Dyring's Inn, contrasting the tumult blanketing Tyrian Falls. Dyring himself sat behind the bar, distractedly rubbing at a stain in the counter. The emptiness was his fault, of course. Everyone was either out hunting for evidence of Spiked, or not allowed in because of their unwillingness to do so. Even Vincero was out helping Loenthal with whatever that fellow was up to. Dyring wondered if his inn would ever be the same, even if he lived to see this mess through. Wondered if he could live in a town where he'd helped kill off a third of the inhabitants, and threatened violence against many of the others. He doubted any other survivors would fault him for his actions, but Dyring knew that he was his own worst enemy in that regard. Elly's death, and that of Dyring's own brother, both haunted him well past what should have been normal. Beyond those, Kellerht's near-death the previous night made it seem likely there would be others close to him that died as they hunted the Spiked. The stillness grew oppressive, but still Dyring didn't get up. He didn't have anything new worth saying, and for now, it was just easier to be swallowed up in his own emotions. 1
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Ugh I forgot rollover was at 7 again. Done some thinking, going to place a vote on Beagle. Good points have been made regarding information gained from exeing beagle vs rhino, and I'd want to look more into the alb/rhino role thingy thug stuff before I exe either of them. Am cooking dinner currently who wants some?
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 7 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said: i think i'll go with...Heron? yeah sure. Heron, and let's smack a ghost vote on Beagle. 5 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said: Heron Beagle didn't like that last post at all @Elbereth curious how you count this sorta thing because ive seen some gms rule this as being a vote on heron still and others would call it a beagle vote
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Am cooking dinner currently who wants some? What are you cooking?
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Oxblood Beagle said: What are you cooking? chorizo and potato hash
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Onyx Flamingo said: chorizo and potato hash I don't think I've ever had chorizo before. Count me in.
Melon Dingo Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Scimon Tlag rubbed his head. He'd wanted to do something. Erh. Maybe he'd put something in that tea after all. He had wanted to help. That was it. Well, that didn't seem like it was happening. Not today. Maybe tomorrow. Tomorrow. The day that never came. Tlag hadn't found a way to sell more time yet. "Praaaise the Ja,"
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Looks like a decision's been made about Oxblood Beagle. It would be nice to have Rhino show up and talk, but Meerkat is right that the act of surviving a Coinshot kill is no more suspicious for Rhino than for Albatross.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 All these carefully constructed plans, tumbling down around me, like house of cards in a highstorm. They didn't have those here in this land of ash and fire, but that didn't matter. I'd found my new home here. A home to serve something greater than myself. Yet I failed. "I am sorry," I whisper to the voice in my mind. I swear I can see her. A shadow in the mists that gather in the dying light. "I have failed you." "That is yet to be determined," she says. Her voice begins to shift. It becomes deeper. The shadow changes. "I am Ruin, and you have brought many to destruction." Yes. I served my purpose. I burn steel once more, delighting in the blue lines that sprout from my chest. Even in death, I can be a tool for Ruin. 6
Fifth Scholar he/him Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Night Six: A Comrade Fallen Their group of villagers had been meeting for four days and nights now. Its membership had varied. The Jaist and the analyst were gone, and now only Beagle and Kellehrt remained, with more people, newer faces entering. Beagle frowned. She had worked with Kellehrt for days now, and the man seemed to trust her with everything, but lately he’d been more guarded, keeping things closer to his chest. It was his right as leader, of course. But other things were bothering her, and as the brief meeting adjourned, she called after the farmer. “Kellehrt!” “Yes?” he said impassively, turning to face her. She paused, flustered slightly. “My business partner, Chameleon, was arrested yesterday when I wasn’t around. I wondered if you could tell me why?” Kellehrt appeared unfazed. “I’m not exactly sure what you’re talking about.” Beagle clenched her fist. Not the way this conversation was supposed to be going. “He was arrested by one of your social groups—you are, as is well known, the progenitor of most of said groups in this town.” Kellehrt smiled. “I am. That’s why I don’t have to bother with arresting people—they keep an eye on things for me, and they found after examining him that he was Spiked. It’s since been removed, and he appears to be recovering, even if he’s still as…unstable as ever. I’m glad for your concern for your associate, though. Good day.” He began to walk away, but Beagle raised her voice in response again. “But you are bothering with having me followed. At night.” Freddie hovered anxiously. “I think Kellehrt might be busy, Beagle—” “No, no, it’s perfectly understandable,” broke in Kellehrt, taking Beagle’s shoulder and steering her away from the rest. He lowered his voice. “Look, Steelpusher. I know you’ve heard the stories about us, this village of Tyrian Falls, its foolishness. When I hear them, even I am shocked. But we are not what people say. Yes, villagers are following you. Villagers are following those villagers. You see them?” He gestured back to the group and lowered his voice. “They follow me. Tyrian Falls is a circle of accountability, nothing more.” She spluttered. “You know the work I’m doing here, for you. Eliminating suspects at night. You really don’t trust me?” The farmer raised his eyebrows. “Of course I do. But you know the old saying? ‘Confirmed good does not equal confirmed right’?” He shook his head, wincing. “No, that’s not it. Ah yes. ‘Trust, but verify.’” The smile crept back on his face. “And the villagers think Varda dreamed that up. Honestly.” “I need to do my work at night,” Beagle said. “Alone.” The eyebrows soared higher. “So you’ll be accountable for your kills? You alone?” Kellehrt asked. She nodded. He tilted his head. “Then it’s done. I’ll inform the others. Good day.” He walked off, and engaged in conversation with another one of his groups. Beagle sighed, and turned to her knitting. It looked to be a long day, and a less eventful one. Hours later, as she was nearly finished with her scarf, she saw Kellehrt and the others walking over. She smiled. “Well? What’s been decided?” They didn’t answer—instead, their ranks parted, and three hazekillers came out from behind them, ripping off her belt of metals and coins. Too late, she realised the betrayal. Kellehrt spoke again. “Accountability is indeed important. I think you’ve been working with too many Spiked recently to ignore that fact, even if you can burn steel.” The hazekillers’ clubs were raised, and indeed, in a haze, Beagle could hear the comforting voice, talking to her in her head. She grinned wryly, burning what was left in her stomach and spitting out the two coins in her mouth, which she always kept in case of emergency. The people were all well shielded, but each coin flew through a window of Dyring’s Inn, shattering the glass panes. “Ruin will win!” she shouted triumphantly, and then the scarf she had woven tightened around her neck, the clubs descended, and after the blows had left her a bloodied mess, two small steel spikes were taken out of her heel. Oxblood Beagle was killed! She was a Spiked Coinshot! Vote Count Oxblood Beagle (7): Amethyst Scorpion, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Ivory Dragonfly, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat Mint Heron (1): Oxblood Beagle, Violet Axolotl Plum Rhinoceros (1): Mint Heron Night 6 has begun! It will end in just over 22 hours at 8:00 PM EST on Friday 21 January. PMs are open. Good luck! Praise the Ja! Praise Warmmha! Player List 1. Amber Vulture Vanilla Villager 2. Amethyst Scorpion - Sidor, newly resigned Hazekiller (Guardsman) 3. Azure Mouse 4. Charcoal Hyena Spiked Mistborn 5. Chartreuse Penguin - Aethex (Jester) 6. Coral Swan - Su (Jaist) Village Mistborn 7. Emerald Falcon Village Lurcher 8. Fuchsia Ostrich - Freddie (Glutton) 9. Ivory Dragonfly (Unlucky) (Replaced) 10. Magenta Albatross (Past Lives) 11. Mauve Crocodile (Gambler) Vanilla Villager 12. Melon Dingo - Scimon Tlag (Merchant) 13. Mint Heron - Tivend Elons (Casanova) 14. Onyx Flamingo (Gossip/Casanova) 15. Opal Lion Vanilla Villager 16. Oxblood Beagle Spiked Coinshot 17. Pearl Chameleon - Var (Two-Faced) Spiked 18. Plum Rhinoceros (Prophet-ish) 19. Quartz Zebra (Drunk/Jaist) 20. Saffron Iguana (Helpful Heckler) Village Soother 21. Salmon Meerkat - Kellehrt, local farmer and possible madman 22. Sapphire Elephant 23. Scarlet Octopus (Neat, Extremist Priest) Village Tineye 24. Sunburst Toucan Village Thug 25. Turquoise Gorilla (Game Show Host) Spiked 26. Violet Axolotl - Dyring (Neat Innkeeper) 4
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Y'ALL Y'ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL I thought the madlads wouldn't do it but there's a spiked coinshot!! that's why we had so many thugs!! oooo the pieces ofthe puzzle pieces are fitting together
Magenta Albatross Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 Four in a row guys. We're on a roll! Also I totally missed the deadline to vote cause I went to pick up something from my friend's house and got talking and lost track of time. Thankfully it wasn't needed. Also someone either Soothed Beagle or Axolotl, or Axolotl Rioted a Smoked player.
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 @Salmon Meerkat did Beagle know anything that's not public knowledge?
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 AWESOME. 13 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: @Salmon Meerkat did Beagle know anything that's not public knowledge? Yes…So I guess the entire elim team knows rip
Violet Axolotl Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 (edited) Yeah I Rioted Heron's vote onto Beagle, which means that Heron is a Smoker or was smoked by one. Edit: Dyring stared, aghast, at the broken windows facing the approach to his home and business. Edited January 21, 2022 by Violet Axolotl
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 21, 2022 Posted January 21, 2022 so i feel inclined to read alb and rhino as village in light of a spiked coinshot cant seem them wasting a kill this far in on an mostly inactive rhino for the sake of a wgg and if you were setting up a wgg on alb then id have thunk youd use the spiked kill not the coinshot who at the time could well have been village
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