Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

D2 re-read here we goo - 

Leaving out all the Beagle stuff because my thoughts are the same as the conclusions drawn from Penguin above and I agree with her so I'd just be repeating her thoughts.

Quote below here is from Hyena's post about Albatross' survival - 

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TL;DR I'm not too suspicious of Albatross, but I am looking warily at the Coinshot who attacked them. In the event the Coinshot is an elim, I worry that it could be a distraction, and that anyone who pushes for their lynch (Chartreuse?) is using their survival to justify not looking at yesterday's counter wagons (Saffron, Turquoise, and to a lesser extent, myself, which I can personally rule out).

Here, he implies anyone pushing on Alb is creating a distraction and makes Penguin look bad, I get the feeling like he's setting Penguin up for suspicious later and there are hints of his TMI knowledge that Alb might be village because that's how Penguin would look suspicious of creating a distraction. As in, only way for Penguin to look bad is if Alb flips v.

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Honestly, I’m not sure. I didn’t have too many big reads at the moment, but… maybe Albatross? I remember I was gut reading them kind of weird at that point in the game. In fact, I find this recent survival has only strengthened my opinions against them, since it seems vastly more likely if they were an elim. They could be a vil!Thug, or could have struck a deal with a Lurcher in PM’s, but they could also be an elim!Thug, or could have been protected by an elim!Lurcher. The former is about equally likely for both elim!Albatross and vil!Albatross, but the latter is much more likely to be elim!Albatross. So… Albatross.

Above the third vote on Albatross and the post doesn't feel distancey in any way. In fact it looks like Gorilla is trying to find any kind of reasoning to vote on Albatross, so very not E/E vibe from this, Albatross feels more and more likely to be village. 

Cham's read list in D2 - 

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Village: Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Mild Village: Amber Vulture, Charcoal Hyena, Onyx Flamingo, Scarlet Octopus 
Null:  Coral Swan (almost to mild village, however), Fuschia Ostrich, Melon Dingo, Mint Heron, Oxblood Beagle, Plum Rhinoceros, Sapphire Elephant, Sunburst Toucan
Mild Elim: Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon, Ivory Dragonfly, Quartz Zebra, Turquoise Gorilla, Violet Axolotl
Elim: Saffron Iguana

Pattern dictates at least one elim in the group of [Melon Dingo, Mint Heron, Oxblood Beagle, Plum Rhinoceros, Sapphire Elephant] (pattern being placing at least one elim in each tier except the extreme tiers)

I'm also inclined to deduce another one in the mild elim tier. After leaving out my trusted reads from the tier, I'm left with the group of [Mouse, Dragonfly]. 

I did find something on Beagle that Penguin missed out and I think it's pretty big - 

Particularly - 

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However, in the interest of not having a 4-way tie in the votes, and getting some answers about the last day turn, Iguana (Octo/Ostrich since I didn't green out my first vote).

 

 They had initially voted for me but did not recall exactly whom they voted for so they retracted both Octo/Ostrich. Guess who mentioned killing Octopus was an accident due to confusion between Octo/Ostrich and that they intended to kill me? That's right, it was Hyena. This similarity of confusion between Octopus and Ostrich for both Hyena AND Beagle is the biggest indication so Beagle's evil alignment to me. [Rhinoceros]

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I cannot even remember much of how Flamingo has voted, besides, I believe, an odd vote for Axolotl at one point, yes? That does not feel like enough, for myself at least, to condemn someone over. And I have seen your posts about Albatross. I have also went and read back over their initial reaction to seeing which kill had hit them and which had hit Lion. That initial reaction especially feels very forced to me, having reread it. Though I might be looking for shadows where there are none. I also think that Iguana is a much safer choice for an exe, as I have not liked their reads and tone for most of the game so far. Plus their heckling without consistent voting to back it up is an easy thing to hide behind.

Bah, some Flamingo defence here by Cham. Flamingo is the most unsure village read I have of now. I really want to trust Flamingo because everything including and post-D3 is beautifully village but everything before is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Bah.

Also, some Alb sus here, which, again, keeps increasing Alb vil points. 

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I'm going to have to agree with Hyena wrt Iguana. So far, that's my strongest elim read, and considering the thread is so conflicted about them it might just be worth it to exe them and get our answers. That probably sounds aggressive lol. The somewhat panicking at the end of a cycle is the big tip off for me.

Flamingo, c'mon -.-

Focusing on reads from this Hyena post -  

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• Firm Village Reads
  • Salmon Meerkat: Insane amount of effort, lots of content consistency + mindmelds, amicable PMs. My player ID of them is probably a large factor in how I feel, since if I'm right, being village would explain how much passion they are putting into solving this particular puzzle. I don't foresee myself doubting this slot's intentions unless a bunch of green flips force me to reevaluate them.
• Mild Village Reads
  • Chartreuse Penguin:  
  • Mint Heron: 
  •  
• Neutral+ Reads
  • Coral Swan: Has made 16 posts this turn (yay activity). Of them, I found their reaction to the Opal's death pretty standard (Though I'm never happy about a villager death, I understand feeling relieved that a slot no longer needs to be analyzed). They are a strong advocate of Village!Albatross and Elim!Gorilla, which tbh, fair. I feel similarly about Albatross and I understand why Gorilla's vote today would push Village!Coral back on that wagon considering prior suspicion. Our conversation regarding an E!Coinshot felt reasonable enough, even if I disagree with their "full stop no" mindset. I have no problems with their reads list like some others, and find their stated conclusions mostly sound / aligned with my own, except for a handful of "Do Not Kill" reads (Beagle, Scorpion, Axlotl, Elephant). I'm curious if @Coral Swan's opinion of Mint Heron has changed after Mint's most recent post, since it moved them up in my estimation and they had Mint as "will help kill" at the start of the day. Also, for the four people I named in the parenthesis above, can you explain their placements? Sorry if I missed your thoughts on them, but they're in my neutral zone and would like your insight, which in turn could help me figure you out better.
    • Emerald Falcon: I don't really get their vote against Coral earlier this day (w/ tunneling comment) and quick retraction, in which they call Coral one of their top village reads before switching to Iguana. I like their reasoning for reading Chartreuse as Village (which I'm leaning towards as well), which is quickly followed up by another rebound on Coral (wants to suspect them), acknowledging that it could be paranoia-based. The bit about the Coinshot claiming to them and reading the Coinshot village is... interesting. I really don't know how I feel about that yet, so will mull over it for now. I also agree with their response to Mint Heron's post, which is again followed by thinking Coral is village again. Looking at the constant flip-flopping now, it feels pretty genuine that they're having trouble figuring Coral out and actively trying to fix that.
  • Amber Vulture: Closer to true neutral than neutral+, though willing to put them here for now due to amicable PMs. They're clearly putting a lot of work into this game (NAI) which means I want to see where that work leads before I can figure out this slot better.
• Neutral- Reads
  • Azure Mouse: As Salmon has pointed out, Azure's been caught lurking several times and not participated much (only posted once and it was NAI). @Azure Mouse, you're not sleeping with your phone browser open, are you? We'd love to hear your thoughts, since it appears that you're around.
    • Turquoise Gorilla: I've said a lot about Turquoise already, but my general consensus is they're not an analysis-heavy player. I don't love any of the D1 votes levied against them, although today's seemingly forced vote on Albatross is a new factor. Their logic behind the vote is definitely faulty, and I do agree with Coral that not stating their apparent-prior suspicion of Albatross until then is a potential excuse for an opportunistic vote. At this point, I'd really love to see a reads list from Turquoise even if it's not incredibly detailed, because I don't know where they stand for most people and thus am having a difficult time seeing the game through their eyes. @Turquoise Gorilla, I don't want to pressure or rush you, but I will say that if you value your life, this could go a long way in helping us figure you out better.
• Mild Eliminator Reads
  • Saffron Iguana: While I liked their light-hearted tone early D1 and believed their initial 'hecklings' to be a sign of effort to solve the game, their later posts + prolonging of their vote left something to be desired. I've said enough about them already, so peep my last post if you missed it for more thoughts.
• Firm Eliminator Reads
  • Too early in the game and not enough info to say.

Makes me very much want to read elim on Azure Mouse due to pattern on neutral reads here [pattern being all neutral+ being village which could imply all neutral- being evil]

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I just don't see Gorilla as evil, really and honestly. A lot of the D1 reasoning was unhelpful rp (which I don't think warrants a vote) and the opportunistic/self-pres vote, which is a valid thing to do to stay alive. (Okay I just got ninja'd by Gorilla and I gotta say not liking the vibe of that post so they might be lowering on my reads. Haha oops).

Sigh, I'd reallly love to know how Flamingo turned 180 on Gorilla.

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Okay, that greatly raises my suspicions on gorilla now, thanks to the vote manip from D1. Also eases my sus level on Swan. I'll probably analyze the votes tomorrow.

The 180 from a few posts before the end of D2 to a few posts after the beginning of N2. 

Annd I'm at the end of N2 and I almost accidentally clicked on the bookmarks at the top of the browser so I'll take it as a sign to hit send and continue from D3 later. 

[Salmon Meerkat]

Just now, Violet Axolotl said:

Yeah, there should probably be some caveats to that statement. For instance, there appears to be no village Seeker, so two Lurchers actually finding and trusting each other like that isn’t super likely (as seen with Falcon’s death). And yeah, several elim Mistborn would also work as a counterbalance. Unfortunately, we don’t have evidence of that yet. And even having the potential of a mechanically unwinnable game for the elims seems... worrying. I’m still not really interested in a role vote right now, but maybe people should reveal once we clear out all the quiet folks, which is likely in 2-3 cycles.

I do feel like, depending on who’s left on the elim team, they might go for some pretty risky plays here. But that might just be my inner elim talking. Giving up a kill hurts, but a soft-clear can be pretty powerful at this stage when we’ve started poking in the corners for the remaining elims.

I think the other issue for me with this is the more I think about it, the more I'm not really sold immortal Lurchers are the biggest threat here:

• AG Tyrian Lurchers have always been immortal, with no targeting restrictions. This feature carried over into LG74 as well. This is the first game which prevents them from Lurching consecutively. So I'm not sure about the extent to which immortality is a major deterrent in this ruleset.
   
• Elims' wincon isn't to kill everyone. It's to outnumber. There are a number of ways to handle immortal Lurchers, including lynching them, or misleading/pocketing them, or simply killing everyone around them. I would agree this could be a problem if certain specific players are immortal but as a GM, I'd be happy to nuke any distro which, for instance, featured immortal Lurchers Vulture and Hyena. Just no >> I feel like you could have a potentially mechanically unwinnable game scenario but that requires edge cases where the Lurchers and few Elims are left at lylo and I feel those are edge enough that they may not weigh unduly on the distro process. At least, my process has always been to rule out edge cases I deem extremely unlikely to happen.
   
• As you pointed out, distrust issues. No knowing if a claimed Seeker is Village. And we still have no sight of who sent the Tineye message D1, and if Hyena did or did not rand Pewter N3. I agree with you we don't have full sight of the distro now - I just think that I am okay with - for the moment - softclearing the player who Lurched me, though maybe I'm biased since this lets me break my longest survival record in a Tyrian AG by two (2) whole cycles  

Agreed about Elim risk tolerance being a question, certainly. For me, I'm happy to bracket it currently while poking around to try to get more out of our lurkers and semi-actives.

Noting that Rhino's last log-in time was on Monday at 0807hrs, GMT+8, which means that Rhino last logged in an hour before D5 rollover and then absconded and never showed up again for the entire Night. As Fifth and El have stated in a clarification that they do not accept doc orders, the only way Rhino could have survived is if they were a Thug or they were Lurched. Both raise ever more questions.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

25 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Particularly - 

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However, in the interest of not having a 4-way tie in the votes, and getting some answers about the last day turn, Iguana (Octo/Ostrich since I didn't green out my first vote).

 

 They had initially voted for me but did not recall exactly whom they voted for so they retracted both Octo/Ostrich. Guess who mentioned killing Octopus was an accident due to confusion between Octo/Ostrich and that they intended to kill me? That's right, it was Hyena. This similarity of confusion between Octopus and Ostrich for both Hyena AND Beagle is the biggest indication so Beagle's evil alignment to me. [Rhinoceros]

That- I never even noticed this what-

That is an extremely good catch Ostrich

I agree with your assessment of Flamingo - all their posts/reads/votes before D3 seem suspicious to me but everything apart from that is very village, so I've decided to give them the benefit of the doubt for now so, leaning vill.

[Onyx Flamingo]

43 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Sigh, I'd reallly love to know how Flamingo turned 180 on Gorilla.

Because of Ig’s village flip and the likelihood that D1 wasnt v/v/v

14 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

agree with your assessment of Flamingo - all their posts/reads/votes before D3 seem suspicious to me but everything apart from that is very village, so I've decided to give them the benefit of the doubt for now so, leaning vill.

Yeah I played a bad D1-D2 village game and I’m mad at myself for it. I’ve been trying to make up for it since then

[Salmon Meerkat]

21 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I agree with your assessment of Flamingo - all their posts/reads/votes before D3 seem suspicious to me but everything apart from that is very village, so I've decided to give them the benefit of the doubt for now so, leaning vill.

I'll be honest I don't agree with you on Beagle and I think you're tunnelling a bit :/

I'd...I hesitate to say more strongly because you read very V to me, and of course, since I should officially confirm this now beyond a shred of doubt for everyone, Swan scanned you Village Thug N3 so I know, logically, you have to be Village, but this feels like a paranoia spiral too far and a distraction from when we should be applying pressure to Mint Heron and the semi-actives.

I think Beagle's D3 response read to me more V than E, and I feel like I'm currently more inclined to read Hyena's and Cham's defense of Beagle as precisely what you claim they should have done - setting up a convenient fall Villager for when/if they did flip. Falcon was the explicit target whom Hyena tied himself to, and Beagle the secondary.

I'm glad we both agree though on Flamingo. Still leaning Village for her, especially for D4 and the attempted D3 CW.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

4 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Village Thug N3

oops

4 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

we should be applying pressure to Mint Heron and the semi-actives

I dont disagree - it's just that we don't gain nearly as much info from lynching an inactive/semi-active as we would from lynching beagle

[Salmon Meerkat]

5 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I dont disagree - it's just that we don't gain nearly as much info from lynching an inactive/semi-active as we would from lynching beagle

I'm not against infolynches in a suspect pool. But you don't just up and infolynch someone who wasn't in your pool in the first place.

I'm the Last Son of House Urbain. I get paranoia. I am very paranoid, as Falcon and Hyena discovered. But we have people lower in the pool who need to be pressed. This is not the time to go back to the higher tiers to infolynch.

Clear the lower, then go higher.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Just now, Salmon Meerkat said:

who wasn't in your pool in the first place.

See my D3 vote smh 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

1 minute ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Clear the lower, then go higher.

Iguana would be like "Are you a police force in an action movie?"

[Chartreuse Penguin]

4 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

See my D3 vote smh 

And also they’ve been under ‘elim’ in literally all my reads lists since then  

[Salmon Meerkat]

7 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

See my D3 vote smh 

I'm just going to have to argue I think your pool is mistaken, frankly  I'm aware of the factors surrounding your later suspicions/votes, just considering whether it's really worth brawling about that in thread.

5 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Iguana would be like "Are you a police force in an action movie?"

I mean.

I'm kel, but I'm aware that the player I'm impersonating may or may not have certain opinions on that >>

1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I'm also inclined to deduce another one in the mild elim tier. After leaving out my trusted reads from the tier, I'm left with the group of [Mouse, Dragonfly]. 

I do want to talk about this though, because it dovetails with my Mouse and Dragonfly worries.

I'm glad Dragonfly is speaking more because before that, I was worried they were in their lurker Elim meta (which I have maaaaybe seen once or twice forever ago but Dragonfly doesn't do inactive play, thank goodness.) I agree with Dragonfly's assessment of D5 Mouse but I still think D2 Mouse feels like a newer player following more experienced teammates onto a train.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

And also they’ve been under ‘elim’ in literally all my reads lists since then  

Again, it's not as though there's no response for this - it's that the thread is not a suitable place for this at the moment  After all, she was in my lowest suspicion tier as well last Night.

I basically just think that Beagle is Falcon #2 here, and that Cham and Hyena were tipping her for a secondary exe. Her response D3 to my scan was on balance a bit too blatant in slow-walking and obstruction to be Elim - Hyena just bit without blinking but that's to be expected from Hyena, she didn't engage with me in PMs on it, which I think doesn't fit with how Hyena's entire team seems to have been instructed to talk to me about it, and her responses just read like genuine confusion rather than Cham's MO of being an Elim trying to sow doubt about the poisoned train but not stick out from the crowd.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Quartz Zebra]

"seeeems like dat der religus lookin fellow has sm splainin todo" @Plum Rhinoceros Plum Rhino

[Oxblood Beagle]

3 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

They had initially voted for me but did not recall exactly whom they voted for so they retracted both Octo/Ostrich. Guess who mentioned killing Octopus was an accident due to confusion between Octo/Ostrich and that they intended to kill me? That's right, it was Hyena. This similarity of confusion between Octopus and Ostrich for both Hyena AND Beagle is the biggest indication so Beagle's evil alignment to me

That wasn't greening out a single vote as a result of not being sure which I voted on, but greening out two previous votes. I've never been confused between the two. I had voted Ostrich first, then Octo without officially retracting the first. I couldn't remember how the GMs counted, so I retracted both, just in case.

4 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

and they instead voted on Ostrich in the same post, whom they had never before mentioned in their post at all. This entire post reads very odd to me/

This was very early in the turn, and Ostrich hadn't been very active. Simply put, this was a poke vote. I thought that was clear on the post itself.

As for defending Cham, I'm not the only one who pointed out that particular argument. Clearly I was wrong, but just as good=/=right, wrong=/=elim.

[Sapphire Elephant]

I don't know why I keep saying that I'll go back over the previous cycles and analyze them, because I keep putting it off. I don't think there's much I could help with in the way of analysis anyway, but it shouldn't hurt to try at some point. (And to start posting for reasons other than to dodge the inactivity filter; that is also a noble goal which I seek to accomplish)

 

Here's a vote count for your troubles:

Heron (2): Albatross, Meerkat

Albatross (1): Beagle

Rhinoceros (1): Ostrich, Zebra

Beagle: Penguin, Ostrich

[Oxblood Beagle]

Alright, let's start with an ISO of the elims we know and see who they mentioned, shall we? Of the elims we've captured, Cham was one of the most prolific in content and interactions, so I start there.

Cycle One: Chameleon Posts

Spoiler

This is the cycle they were under quick pressure, and so were put on the defensive almost immediately.

First post is only a vote on Iguana, guess on distro and comment on Coinshot not going the wanton murder route.

The next post was a response to Iguana and Octopus both being suspicious of their suggested distro. Responded to Octo's question that they thought a Coinshot and Mistborn were both likely, said they thought an elim Coinshot would be fun, but didn't know if it was likely.

They then responded to Meerkat's vote on them. Said any early vote in D1 is going to be a stretch (accurate) 1`222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222a (I'm leaving that in. It's a message from my dog, who is particularly in need of attention today).

Another response to Octo and Meerkat which didn't say much.

Then they posted a vote count and voted on Swan alongside me, not liking the Gorilla train, and saying they'll self-pres if necessary. Swan responds asking where their actual suspicion is, to which Cham repeats my reasoning. Swan responds again, and Cham argues back, and asks Penguin the reason for their vote.

Their next post is a response to Iguana, in which with hindsight, it's clear they were avoiding voting on Gorilla. It also responds to Penguin saying they were voting to gauge a reaction.

After that, they further justify their vote on Swan.

They respond to Axolotl's post regarding justification of votes, saying they wouldn't agree with just killing randomly.

There's a bit of back-and-forth between Axolotl, Swan, Penguin, Meerkat, and Cham (not going to link every post here) about the same themes. Here is where they start to back off their Swan vote.

Cham soon bounces to Iguana after a short discussion with Crocodile.

Their final post D1 was a response to Croc's question if they'd vote Zebra, to which Cham said no because they hadn't posted much.

Cham only posted once N1, near the end of it. They commented on the vote manip, didn't like Croc's death, not sure where Gorilla suspicion is from, still suspicious of Iguana and Swan.

Of all the people mentioned in Cham's posts C1, these players are the ones we don't have confirmed alignments: Meerkat, Penguin*, Axolotl, Zebra. *Per Meerkat's reveal, their alignment is pretty much confirmed, just not via death.

Cycle One: Gorilla Posts

Spoiler

Their first post is mostly RP in their CR. In it they ask about distro possibilities. Their next post answers the question, suggesting 6-7 depending on roles (note, this is a few higher than Pearl's number), and suggests there's probably one kill role (we know now there was a Mistborn).

They go back to RP and analyzing the responses to their question. Jokingly said they like their own guess best, debates a bit about Iguana's distro.

The next two posts are "hehe" to Torquoise, and asking for a VC.

Gorilla then joins the Swan train to avoid the Cham, Croc, and Hyena trains. Swan responds, prompting Gorilla's next post which is saying he voted Swan because he didn't want to start a train late in the day.

Their final two posts were a vote count and a swap to vote on Iguana to save himself and Croc.

In the night turn, they posted RP about Croc's death, a statement about vote manip, and a question to Falcon, who questioned him about Cham's involvement in D1.

Seriously uncomfortable with the fact two elims joined my vote on Swan. But that's also an argument in my favor here. In the case I were elim, that would mean three elims jumped on the same train D1 when they could have joined the Iguana, Croc, Octopus, or Axolotl** or Scorpion** trains, several of which had more backing and less debate. **Alignments are undetermined, but they were players with votes at the time Gorilla voted Swan.

Cycle One: Hyena Posts

Spoiler

Their first post of the game was a reads post. They placed both Cham and Gorilla in the middle category, and Scorpion in the red category for saying "the elim team will be weaker." Albatross is in their village category for "new player vibes" and questions that don't seem forced. Meerkat is there for their vote. Other players in the middle category (who are still alive) include Penguin*, Ostrich (with a light village lean), Dingo, and myself. Most of the reasons for all of these is lack of content.

They respond to Penguin's vote with an explanation of their read list and how they separate it by color. Responds to Swan, Iguana, Octo, and Crocodile (all of which are dead, so I'm not looking too closely here). The only thing I want to note is that Hyena stated their decision to put Scorpion on the red list was to put them on the defensive. He finishes by responding to Scorpion. Not a lot there.

Third post is a vote count.

In the night turn, they posted an apology for not getting on again during the day. Then they posted a response to a bit of the Cham issue, and finally pointed out Penguin's vote for simply having a read list D1. That was most of their content for the next post as well (and the one after that in a back-and-forth with Meerkat, and the one after that in response to Penguin).

Hyena then posted a breakdown of Iguana regarding the Gorilla/Iguana thing.

Not a whole lot to be learned from Hyena D1. It seemed mostly focused around people who are already dead and Penguin, who I'm certain is village. Scorpion is of note here. The post could have been distancing, but I'd need to look more into Scorpion to say for sure. 

And this is where I lost my focus. I'll try later tonight to look at more recent cycles. Both Axolotl and Scorpion were recurring themes (of players I haven't developed a solid village read on), so I want to take a closer look at them.

I'll end with a brief read list, no reasoning given because I can't be bothered (sorry, lack of focus again).

Village

• Salmon Meerkat
• Chartreuse Penguin

Mild Village

• Violet Axolotl
• Fuchsia Ostrich
• Onyx Flamingo

Null (needs further analysis) 

• Amethyst Scorpion
• Quartz Zebra

Null (low activity)

• Azure Mouse
• Ivory Dragonfly
• Melon Dingo
• Sapphire Elephant

Mild Elim

• Magenta Albatross
• Mint Heron

Elim

• Plum Rhinoceros

[Azure Mouse]

I have tried to post this 3 times and I keep losing it. I am annoyed.

My phone no longer will load the shard without crashing, I will only be able to post while I am at home. 

Mouse 1.0 D2 Voting:

Mouse had a PM with Chameleon starting on January 5th, and on the 8th Chameleon gave some reasons for Mouse 1.0 to vote on Iguana, and they agreed. My read was that they were a newer player/an uncertain player who didn't know what to do and went with the first option provided them.

12 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

D2, Azure Mouse shows up for no reason to vote Iguana and follows Hyena and Cham. From my read of how Azure Mouse was engaging with the game, this looks like a more inexperienced Elim following teammates onto a train, and would be happy to pursue that line of questioning further. I recognise it's unfair to Mouse 2.0 to expect them to be able to account for the actions of their predecessor, but I have to say that's my current view of that vote.

I had other things to post, but I'm honestly just quite annoyed that I've already typed it up two times and it's gotten deleted so I'll just post this for now. 

[Mint Heron]

Color coded vote counts are generally helpful for analyzing situations.

Spoiler

 

Day 1:
Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron

Day 2:
Saffron Iguana (5): Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Scarlet Octopus (4): Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Oxblood Beagle, Saffron Iguana
Onyx Flamingo (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Turquoise Gorilla
Magenta Albatross (1): Amber Vulture
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Amethyst Scorpion

Day 3:
Turquoise Gorilla (9): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat
Emerald Falcon (2): Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros
Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle (1): Chartreuse Penguin
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Quartz Zebra (1): Charcoal Hyena

Day 4:
Charcoal Hyena (13): Amethyst Scorpion, Charcoal Hyena, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Fuchsia Ostrich, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat, Violet Axolotl

Day 5:
Pearl Chameleon (8): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Violet Axolotl
Magenta Albatross (2): Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron

Day 3 practically cleared most of the people voting for Turquoise Gorilla, except for maybe Magenta Albatross. In addition, Violet Axolotl has voted evil players every round so they are obviously Village as well. That's already six players easily cleared.

In the less cleared, but still probably village category, I would put two names. Chartreuse Penguin had a great Day 1 vote on Hyena, which makes them likely a villager. Even though I don't like the tone of Magenta Albatross's Day 3 vote, Chameleon still tried to kill him. In addition, I highly doubt three Elims would all converge on the same train Day 1. Albatross, in my mind at least, is village.

In terms of suspicions, the obvious candidates are the voters on Emerald Falcon. Of the two, Plum Rhinoceros, is clearly the most suspicious right now. We can reasonably assume that the Elim team has some form of Night protection, since Hyena survived a Night kill. In addition, they've only vote once, and did it to defend Gorilla. I want Beagle to be an Elim, so I could at least say I identified one Elim, but if Rhino is evil, that again means three Elims on the same train. Admittedly, it would be in defense of a teammate, but it's a stretch. I'm still suspicious of Beagle, but Rhino takes priority.

The other category is players that didn't vote in the first three rounds. That makes it really difficult to analyze them. And, if Rhino and Beagle aren't on a team together, we've probably got an Elim among them. Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, and Sapphire Elephant are the four players in that category. I'm guessing that Elephant is village, because I'm guessing they are the Village Rioter. Mouse's vote on the Chameleon train feels too evil to be evil. It's so obviously joining on a train that it warps back around to being Village. That leaves Ivory Dragonfly, and they did try to protect Rhino in their post, but I'm not confident they are evil. I don't want it to be Dingo, because I like that they're still RPing, but my gut is not agreeing with me. If it's not Rhino, then I'd say it's a team of Beagle and Dingo.

Finally, there's me. Look, my gut is a Dark Friend. If Beagle is not an Elim, I haven't voted for a single Evil person all game. I'm not the greatest village player, but this is a new low, even for me. I completely understand where the votes on me are coming from. Honestly, if my positions were reversed, I would probably vote on me. The only argument I have is a role distribution one, but that's tenuous at best. However, I might as well claim at this point, since I'm likely to die sooner or later. I'm a Village Smoker. My guess for distribution is that the Village has one of every power role, but that there are some additional Mistborn sprinkled around, including one or potentially two on the Elim team. I have no way to prove my role, because I frankly haven't been using it. I've been on so many small trains that it didn't make sense to protect my vote, and I didn't want to block any Seekers as I became increasingly suspicious. The only time I used it was Day 1. I smoked myself and Onyx Flamingo. I was going to make a flirtatious PM Day 1, since we're the two Casanovas in town, but I never got around to it.

So, TLDR:

Spoiler

Absolutely Village (6):

• Amethyst Scorpion
• Violet Axolotl
• Onyx Flamingo
• Salmon Meerkat
• Fuchsia Ostrich
• Quartz Zebra

Probably Village (2):

• Chartreuse Penguin
• Magenta Albatross

Maybes (4):

• Sapphire Elephant
• Azure Mouse
• Ivory Dragonfly
• Melon Dingo

One or Both of Them are Elims (2):

• Oxblood Beagle
• Plum Rhinoceros

 

[Salmon Meerkat]

2 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Color coded vote counts are generally helpful for analyzing situations.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Day 1:
Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron

Day 2:
Saffron Iguana (5): Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Scarlet Octopus (4): Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Oxblood Beagle, Saffron Iguana
Onyx Flamingo (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Turquoise Gorilla
Magenta Albatross (1): Amber Vulture
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Amethyst Scorpion

Day 3:
Turquoise Gorilla (9): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat
Emerald Falcon (2): Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros
Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle (1): Chartreuse Penguin
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Quartz Zebra (1): Charcoal Hyena

Day 4:
Charcoal Hyena (13): Amethyst Scorpion, Charcoal Hyena, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Fuchsia Ostrich, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat, Violet Axolotl

Day 5:
Pearl Chameleon (8): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Violet Axolotl
Magenta Albatross (2): Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron

Day 3 practically cleared most of the people voting for Turquoise Gorilla, except for maybe Magenta Albatross. In addition, Violet Axolotl has voted evil players every round so they are obviously Village as well. That's already six players easily cleared.

In the less cleared, but still probably village category, I would put two names. Chartreuse Penguin had a great Day 1 vote on Hyena, which makes them likely a villager. Even though I don't like the tone of Magenta Albatross's Day 3 vote, Chameleon still tried to kill him. In addition, I highly doubt three Elims would all converge on the same train Day 1. Albatross, in my mind at least, is village.

In terms of suspicions, the obvious candidates are the voters on Emerald Falcon. Of the two, Plum Rhinoceros, is clearly the most suspicious right now. We can reasonably assume that the Elim team has some form of Night protection, since Hyena survived a Night kill. In addition, they've only vote once, and did it to defend Gorilla. I want Beagle to be an Elim, so I could at least say I identified one Elim, but if Rhino is evil, that again means three Elims on the same train. Admittedly, it would be in defense of a teammate, but it's a stretch. I'm still suspicious of Beagle, but Rhino takes priority.

The other category is players that didn't vote in the first three rounds. That makes it really difficult to analyze them. And, if Rhino and Beagle aren't on a team together, we've probably got an Elim among them. Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, and Sapphire Elephant are the four players in that category. I'm guessing that Elephant is village, because I'm guessing they are the Village Rioter. Mouse's vote on the Chameleon train feels too evil to be evil. It's so obviously joining on a train that it warps back around to being Village. That leaves Ivory Dragonfly, and they did try to protect Rhino in their post, but I'm not confident they are evil. I don't want it to be Dingo, because I like that they're still RPing, but my gut is not agreeing with me. If it's not Rhino, then I'd say it's a team of Beagle and Dingo.

Finally, there's me. Look, my gut is a Dark Friend. If Beagle is not an Elim, I haven't voted for a single Evil person all game. I'm not the greatest village player, but this is a new low, even for me. I completely understand where the votes on me are coming from. Honestly, if my positions were reversed, I would probably vote on me. The only argument I have is a role distribution one, but that's tenuous at best. However, I might as well claim at this point, since I'm likely to die sooner or later. I'm a Village Smoker. My guess for distribution is that the Village has one of every power role, but that there are some additional Mistborn sprinkled around, including one or potentially two on the Elim team. I have no way to prove my role, because I frankly haven't been using it. I've been on so many small trains that it didn't make sense to protect my vote, and I didn't want to block any Seekers as I became increasingly suspicious. The only time I used it was Day 1. I smoked myself and Onyx Flamingo. I was going to make a flirtatious PM Day 1, since we're the two Casanovas in town, but I never got around to it.

So, TLDR:

  Reveal hidden contents

Absolutely Village (6):

• Amethyst Scorpion
• Violet Axolotl
• Onyx Flamingo
• Salmon Meerkat
• Fuchsia Ostrich
• Quartz Zebra

Probably Village (2):

• Chartreuse Penguin
• Magenta Albatross

Maybes (4):

• Sapphire Elephant
• Azure Mouse
• Ivory Dragonfly
• Melon Dingo

One or Both of Them are Elims (2):

• Oxblood Beagle
• Plum Rhinoceros

 

what in the name of athena did i just read

edited to add: you think beagle is more suspicious and have devoted energy to getting her lynched but suddenly swing onto rhino? 

sorry friend

reads evil to me 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Onyx Flamingo]

Rhino's survival of the coinshot + their high level of inactivity makes me highly sus of them. It's been a Minute since they've been online. D5 looks like. I don't feel solid enough on heron or beagle to give a vote on either of them, but of the two I think I'm more sus of beagle.

For that, Plum Rhino.

Anyway, classes started yesterday so I've been unable to really get into the nitty gritty of the game.

[Salmon Meerkat]

4 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Rhino's survival of the coinshot + their high level of inactivity makes me highly sus of them. It's been a Minute since they've been online. D5 looks like. I don't feel solid enough on heron or beagle to give a vote on either of them, but of the two I think I'm more sus of beagle.

For that, Plum Rhino.

Anyway, classes started yesterday so I've been unable to really get into the nitty gritty of the game.

If Rhino is inactive, who is sending in kills or orders? 

[Onyx Flamingo]

Just now, Salmon Meerkat said:

If Rhino is inactive, who is sending in kills or orders? 

Another elim. There's definitely more than one elim left, but I don't have a confident enough idea of who else it could be, so I go with my better choice. Weren't you the one discussing voting out some inactives?

[Salmon Meerkat]

26 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Another elim. There's definitely more than one elim left, but I don't have a confident enough idea of who else it could be, so I go with my better choice. Weren't you the one discussing voting out some inactives?

I'll be honest here.

Yes, but I think there's a decent case made for Beagle and a decent case made for Heron, and I find it suspicious that all of a sudden, the Rhino train takes off - it looks to me like an Elim-led swing to try to save either Beagle or Heron, and it doesn't look good on most people on that train.

I gaslit the Beagle arguments out of existence.

This should never have flown in a game, and this is the closest to Elim kel people have seen in a while.

I did it to test for reactions and those I've found just aren't very inspiring.

Heron's responses are so out of touch with the game he either needs a phonebook, or he's Evil, because we have GM confirmation that two Thugs exist and are Village. His one power role hypothesis fails. He keeps insisting Beagle is Evil and then when given a choice between Beagle and Rhino, chooses Rhino. When he himself has argued that Beagle has more suspicious votes, Rhino's mere survival itself becomes suspicious! And this in a game where we don't have full sight of the distro, as I keep hammering home! Is the Coinshot Evil? Who the hell knows! If the Coinshot is Evil, this becomes immediately more explicable! If he's committed to a craptonne of hidden Mistborn (which he is), then more Thugs is also reasonable!

Lynches on an inactive are by nature low-info. If we get the Village up in arms to state their position, I suppose it works, but there is no interaction to analyse, no ISO to go back on, nothing but a single isolated Falcon vote. I can't help but read this as an Elim train, and then my question is: why now? Why for Rhino and not for Cham?

Except we did see that, didn't we, @Mint Heron? Convenient that your vote appears on Beagle when Cham is under threat. Convenient that this sudden change of mind happens based off a single Thug survival in a game where we don't have full sight of the distro and your thoughts on the distro are demonstrably wrong.

If you feel a single suspicious vote and survival is enough to lynch Rhino today, you should be committed to lynching Alb as well.

Why does Alb get a pass but not Rhino?

This reads to me straightforwardly as an attempt to deflect the trains and I'm side-eying everyone on it right now but...especially Heron.

Edited to add: I started this game yelling about CC. I would think people would find it odd if I just immediately bought that we should go for the inactives because that is the best way to take pressure off active Elims. I largely agree with Axl - there are likely some inactive Elims but I don't see the reason to go low info now when we haven't even cleared all the semi-actives yet!

Edited January 20, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat
misspelled village

[Onyx Flamingo]

I mean Penguin can attest to this but like the first thing I pm'd them when this cycle began was "I am very suspicious of Rhino" so

18 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I gaslit the Beagle arguments out of existence.

Yeah and I trust you so I was like, huh, maybe Meerkat is right and the arguments for beagle aren't all that great. Let me Reconsider and vote for someone I'm definitely suspicious of based on the coinshot kill. Am I suddenly suspicious for reading your post about how Beagle isn't sus, then going maybe they're not, I'll reconsider, then voting? That's not fair.

20 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Why does Alb get a pass but not Rhino?

They don't. I've been sus of Alb from the get go and it was you who convinced me to not vote on them because, iirc, you told me that it wasn't a good idea to exe on roles alone. But I've consistently been suspicious of Alb. In our PM too.

How is it fair that I've brought up all these things before, or thought of them, you convinced me to not do them, and then you're upset that I listened to you?

Rhino

I'll vote tomorrow when my head is clear.

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Am I suddenly suspicious for reading your post about how Beagle isn't sus, then going maybe they're not, I'll reconsider, then voting? That's not fair.

I'm going to put it this way: if Vulture were alive, I'd never be allowed to live for that slip. Is everyone Vulture? Obviously no. Is it expected that some Villagers would take that sort of post and run with it? Yes. But this also provide excellent cover for Elims, meaning people who do use this as a reason to jump off are back in the suspect pool. This is an interaction I'd be happy to have more scrutiny on.

3 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

They don't. I've been sus of Alb from the get go and it was you who convinced me to not vote on them because, iirc, you told me that it wasn't a good idea to exe on roles alone. But I've consistently been suspicious of Alb. In our PM too.

Yes. I continue to maintain rolelynching especially without a full sight of the distro is a bad idea - my point is that there's an asymmetry so when players choose to act on one suspicion but not the other, this is something we immediately have to question. Do they come by this honestly? Or is this an Elim trying to use this as a reason to get a lynch? This is why the inconsistency matters. It's not that Alb is Evil. It's that if you think Alb is Evil - or say you do - but don't vote Alb, and then vote Rhino in a cycle where there's pressure on Heron and Beagle, this looks odd.

Consider everyone who kept arguing that Gorilla was innocent but Iguana was suspicious because of the D1 vote manipulation. You did. So did Cham.

Cham was Evil. The point is not that no Villager will say this. The point is that Elims will take this as cover, so we have to question it.

7 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

How is it fair that I've brought up all these things before, or thought of them, you convinced me to not do them, and then you're upset that I listened to you?

Friend, if you think I'm attacking you in particular, I'm sorry.

At this point, from fog-of-war, all I see are interactions that look like a concerted attempt to save either Beagle or Heron by specifically going onto Rhino. This includes Heron, and there's a reason I'm not voting on you right now, though I have to admit this raises questions for me within my lower suspicion tiers again. It's not impossible that these are Village interactions, but as a living Villager, it is my job to call attention to vote movements that look suspicious or that don't seem to make sense within the context of the cycle.

[Onyx Flamingo]

1 minute ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Friend, if you think I'm attacking you in particular, I'm sorry.

your post was in response to mine, so I made that conclusion. sorry