Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Current village reads (8): Meerkat, Ostrich, Axolotl, Scorp, Zebra, Alb, Heron, Dingo. In that order. 

By PoE, I am left with (6): Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle, Plum Rhinoceros, Sapphire Elephant 

Given that we’ve caught three elims, there’s likely three or four left. Leaning four, considering that both Cham and Gorilla were vanilla. Three if they’ve got like, secret mistborn in hiding. Inactives maybe. 

Edited January 18, 2022 by Chartreuse Penguin
fixed typo: ‘of’ to ‘if’

[Onyx Flamingo]

6 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I think Cham defended you more than anyone still alive, saying more than once that they don't understand/agree with the suspicions of you.

Yeah, I’m aware of that. I had a PM with them from D1 where we talked mostly OOG stuff. I’m gonna go through it later today (first day of classes today). 

I see that I’m gathering suspicion. I can’t say I see why. Following Ig’s flip to village, I switched to voting on gorilla. I also argued with hyena until their open wolfing, and I voted on Cham. Hyena was also the main proponent of my exe. I can promise I’m not elim all I want, but in the end I need practical evidence, so that’s mine lol. 

7 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Flamingo

SMH kel I thot we were friends </3

Edited January 18, 2022 by Onyx Flamingo

[Salmon Meerkat]

10 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I think Cham defended you more than anyone still alive, saying more than once that they don't understand/agree with the suspicions of you.

Hesitate to say this but feel that Cham's defense of Flamingo would be NAI.

All my information has been passed to the Village Thug scan.

§

things fall apart the centre cannot hold and he sits on Dyring’s porch and rests his head against his knees and tries to sleep tries to close his eyes against the dusk that is like the drawing down of the funeral pall if only they had not taken so long, if only someone had stopped his father, if only someone had stopped Var and in that moment, Kellehrt grieves intensely

with every part of his being, because it was not enough, because it had been too late, because they had found Var and two of his brethren but more lurked out there among them in Tyrian Falls, and it was strange to think of the cobbled streets and worn pavingstones and neighbours who he’d skipped stones with as a boy and the baker and the blacksmith and the carpenter and to imagine the foul taint of evil slicking those smiles

if only his father’s evil, his father’s corruption had been so easy to find and Kellehrt finds himself studying every feature of his father’s face in his dreams, wondering, when did you turn, when did you fall, as though there’s an answer to be found the way the answer pops out when you reckon numbers on the account books, he’d kept a ledger back in the shop in Luthadel, back when he still ran his own forge

now the ledger is different; he measures the rich gold of ripening grain in the bloody light of the morning sun and tallies numbers so he can set them against the dead, so he can say

we found three of them, we lost eight of ours

as though this perverse mathematics is somehow justified, proof that God still continues to will that they be stopped, continues to work through him

you did something, Warmmha tells him, but Warmmha doesn’t tell him it’s not his fault, because it is, because it took a whole village to damn Tyrian Falls and the wounds his father carved that day with the blade of his axe clove through the bodies of villagers and through the beating heart of Tyrian Falls itself

now riven through with doubt and suspicion and even then he rests his weary head at the inn because Dyring suggested he get some rest, because Dyring put a hand on his shoulder and stopped him when Kellehrt was about to leave

it’s getting dark, Dyring says, as though it isn’t getting dark all the time, as though each body they find with a spike driven through it isn’t a blot against the light, the weight of two boxings against their eyelids, you better be careful, things happen out there in the dark, maybe you should rest a while

maybe he will

the instinct is to crave the light, the instinct is to preserve

but Kellehrt looks out into the dark or maybe the dark reaches into him with the intimation of spikes driven into its eyes and it sees him and it knows him

no, says Warmmha, firmly

you are mine

always

he grinds the heels of his hands against his eyes, feels the weariness and the strain on his shoulders, more weight than a mere farmer from Tyrian Falls should ever expect to feel thrust upon him, the dead laid against his soul like Wark’s neat charcoaled marks on the ledger, each mark indicating what was owed, what still remains to be paid

iron prices blood prices guilt and shame and inheritance

father, why did you

(the father is merciful)

Kellehrt looks out into the dark and the dark looks back into him and he breathes in the pain and the guilt and the shame and the strain

and he bows his head and slips out to meet the end of his road in the dusk

if this be Your will

Edited January 18, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Quartz Zebra]

15 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I think semi actives are a good take too.

"i fer onne sthink thatt the smmmiactivs are 10000% vil. shpesificaly one semmmiactive  en partikular"

Quote

cham sent me a PM early on

like n2 i think

only like 2 messages, but they were def fishing for info. not role info, but they asked for my reads.
i only replied with infoless-RP and they didn't continue asking.

not sure if that means anything, but might offer some insight into e-team tactics?

 

[Salmon Meerkat]

2 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

"i fer onne sthink thatt the smmmiactivs are 10000% vil. shpesificaly one semmmiactive  en partikular"

 

reads like cham was trying to pm spider

which i suppose is on me for not realising since he'd said he'd sent a pm to each player in the game

probably their network then

[Salmon Meerkat]

@Ivory Dragonfly @Sapphire Elephant @Plum Rhinoceros @Melon Dingo @Azure Mouse

Two of you are on death row, and probably blatantly filter-dodging. At this point, I'm not terribly invested in keeping you alive. Who do you think should be Coinshot tonight, and why?

[Melon Dingo]

No drink, then. That was fine. Dyring was right; he hadn't done anything, and that didn't look like it would change. But Scimon Tlag still felt a twinge of sadness hearing the brief toast from the inn, the joy at finding another saboteur. Both emotions soon faded; the inn to its meloncholy for the general dead, and Tlag to his... he didn't know what it was.

Apathy. Kellehrt had said that. It fit him decently. 

Tlag walked a block or two over, then took out a small flask. Foilleaf tea wasn't alcohol, but it did help calm his nerves. It usually sold well. Buying the recipe of that Terriswoman had cost an arm and a leg, but it had paid off quickly. Sharpened the brain, she'd said. It certainly seemed to. Tlag figured it was at least mildly addictive, but what wasn't. He took a few sips.

At some point Kellehrt stumbled out of the Inn, sitting down on the porch, staring into the dark at something only he could see. Tlag didn't meet his gaze. He was one of the ones who didn't seem... didn't seem... erh. He took another sip. Didn't seem so gone. Or so gone from the events of the past few days. Whatever had broken that one had happened before the news of the koloss had come. Before Riggs had died, before mayors were attacked in the dead of night.

Kellehrt went off. But not before Tlag heard him call his name, a name. For him, for others, those who hadn't been around enough to celebrate in the victory feast. And for the Coinshot.

Did Tyrian Falls have any need for Scimon Tlag?

They hadn't wanted to buy from his shop. Everyone who'd seemed vaguely connected to him had died. They'd be really gone by now, except maybe Su. Who knew what a full Mistborn was capable of. Who knew what the Ja was capable of. Tlag sure didn't. He took another stuff. Erh. He should have added a little pep to it. 

Tlag knew a few of those names. Hadn't met any of them, so not much he could say there. Tlag hadn't advocated for the death of anyone who hadn't wanted to die themselves. He didn't see a point of changing that tonight.

Tomorrow...

Tomorrow is another day. Perhaps then you'll have something to say.

Scimon Tlag paused, then downed the last of his foilleaf. It helped, a little. But he needed more than a mild stimulant to decipher that. He needed to get his mind off things. It was putting off a problem that was getting increasingly close, but Tlag couldn't deal with it right now. If Tyrian Falls needed him tomorrow, then maybe he could be there. If it was his last chance... well, perhaps Su would be there to talk to.

And he needed to find a drunken Quartz.

"Praise the Ja."

[Onyx Flamingo]

Some thoughts:

I don't think I've seen Ivory Dragonfly post at all in the past two go arounds?

Azure Mouse was only just pinch hit on N4 right? I wanna give them the benefit of the doubt though the previous mouse was pretty inactive too and that begs the question, is it due to an elim alignment? Gah

I like your rp @Melon Dingo, can you give us some thoughts though?

Elephant and Rhino... gah I don't know anything. I need to go back and find their posts, but I have 0 thoughts and 0 reads and no idea. I feel like one of these two HAS to be elim on that basis alone. Is that dumb? Might be dumb.

[Salmon Meerkat]

11 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I don't think I've seen Ivory Dragonfly post at all in the past two go arounds?

You are almost correct there

When I said they were on death row, I did not mean it as a threat (since the Coinshot does their own thing) but as a statement of fact. Dragonfly and Elephant have not posted in 3 turns, or 1.5 cycles. Failure to post by the end of D6 will likely result in their death (by the inactivity filter) as I understand the GMs have run short of foolhardy volunteers willing to throw themselves into the meatgrinder to save Tyrian Fal- ah, apologies, I meant pinch-hitters. They're short of pinch-hitters now. We've been too profligate

I strongly suspect they are filter-dodging as they have fairly decent login times, but there's only so much the Village can do to beg them to help us read them.

And @Melon Dingo has cleverly added some thoughts via RP, which is a playstyle I approve of, though I've been too bogged down by guilt these days to stick to it. I feel like I'm channelling my inner Falcon when I say this: it's this easy to upgrade your read, people  Just post!

[Onyx Flamingo]

2 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

And @Melon Dingo has cleverly added some thoughts via RP, which is a playstyle I approve of, though I've been too bogged down by guilt these days to stick to it.

ye I noticed a few things i just want MOAR

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

ye I noticed a few things i just want MOAR

Spoiler

Edited to add: Will dedicate this one to Burnt, if ye be playin.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Elbereth she/her]

Day Six: I Desire Mercy

Kellehrt was up later that night than usual, wandering the streets of the town after taking leave of Dyring’s porch and nailing up his message a few yards away. The farmer was in a subdued mood. Another Spiked was bled and paid for, but how many more were out now, under cover of darkness, seeking his blood? Too many for him to fend off, to be sure. He had made his last speech before, of course, always a final declamation, always a last exhortation to the men he trusted, and those he did not trust, the last will and testament never seeming to be quite as final. Would this one be? He shrugged, deciding it did not matter. He had done what he could either way. Warrmha was merciful. He began the familiar litany in his head again, echoing it over and over, closing his eyes and letting the words flow soundlessly from his lips as his feet, knowing the path, traced their way home from Dyring’s Inn. Begging forgiveness, begging Him to end what was surely a horrific joke, a distorted calculus of numbers that left his friends dead and his neighbours fearful and his enemies…they were dead too, but how many justly, how many had been forced or threatened or simply clueless? Only Warrmha knew. He did not control His people the way devils like Ruin did. He simply commanded, or rather taught, and once you saw you obeyed. You would be a brainless idiot not to. And yet you still were, no brains and no sense, equipped with nothing but the words given you and told to go and rescue a village from itself. He turned the corner by rote, mumbling the last words again, “if this be Your will,” and collapsed onto his bed. He was sound asleep. 

Elsewhere, the work of Warrmha went on. A town guard, seeing the farmer pass in complete obliviousness, chased off an individual who was tailing him, one hand suspiciously far down his cloak. The man grumbled, but fled into the night. Still in another place, a shower of coins which should have torn a man to shreds caught a group of starlings in flight, which appeared seemingly out of nowhere. Man slept, and the work of Warrmha went on, and the sun rose on a small, sleepy town in which, for the first time, everyone seemed to still be alive.

---

Salmon Meerkat was attacked (by the Spiked) but survived!
Plum Rhinoceros was attacked (by a Coinshot) but survived!
No one died. Day 6 has started, you know the drill.

Player List
1. Amber Vulture Vanilla Villager
2. Amethyst Scorpion - Sidor, newly resigned Hazekiller (Guardsman)
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Spiked Mistborn
5. Chartreuse Penguin - Aethex (Jester)
6. Coral Swan - Su (Jaist) Village Mistborn
7. Emerald Falcon Village Lurcher
8. Fuchsia Ostrich - Freddie (Glutton)
9. Ivory Dragonfly (Unlucky) (Replaced)
10. Magenta Albatross (Past Lives)
11. Mauve Crocodile (Gambler) Vanilla Villager
12. Melon Dingo - Scimon Tlag (Merchant)
13. Mint Heron - Tivend Elons (Casanova)
14. Onyx Flamingo (Gossip/Casanova)
15. Opal Lion Vanilla Villager
16. Oxblood Beagle
17. Pearl Chameleon - Var (Two-Faced) Spiked
18. Plum Rhinoceros (Prophet-ish)
19. Quartz Zebra (Drunk/Jaist)
20. Saffron Iguana (Helpful Heckler) Village Soother
21. Salmon Meerkat - Kellehrt, local farmer and possible madman
22. Sapphire Elephant
23. Scarlet Octopus (Neat, Extremist Priest) Village Tineye
24. Sunburst Toucan Village Thug
25. Turquoise Gorilla (Game Show Host) Spiked
26. Violet Axolotl - Dyring (Neat Innkeeper)

Tineye Messages

Quote

PMs are open.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Elbereth

[Onyx Flamingo]

wh

huh

okay

lets vote out some inactives

[Elbereth she/her]

Whoops. Failed attacks are in fact supposed to be in the writeup! Added. EDIT: also who attacked them >>

Edited January 19, 2022 by Elbereth
im so tired sorry yall

[Onyx Flamingo]

1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

Whoops. Failed attacks are in fact supposed to be in the writeup! Added.

this changes some things i believe

Edited January 19, 2022 by Onyx Flamingo

[Violet Axolotl]

I guess I want to go after Heron. We’ve still only found 3 elims that voted D1, and two of those were directly opposing Gorilla. Either the elims are so inactive that we’ve basically already won the game, or there were more of them that voted D1. Or their team is really small and the Coinshot is elim. But a small elim team seems a little odd given the two vanillas we’ve already found, even with remaining players having strong roles.

It’s also worth noting that the alignment of the Coinshot now seems like it should be related to those of Rhino and Alb, since whichever team doesn’t have a bonus kill presumably would have extra protection to compensate. And I doubt 2 village Lurchers exist in the game, because if the elims had a Coinshot that they lost before killing either Lurcher, the Lurchers could trade protection and be invincible. So that means either an elim Lurcher, and probably either Rhino/Alb is elim, or a couple of Thugs, probably one of which is v/e with the Coinshot. Of course, Hyena could have been responsible for Alb surviving as well. And Rhino is so inactive that an elim Coinshot might have attacked him as a sort of bus, although that is weird unless there are no other inactive elims.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

21 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

It’s also worth noting that the alignment of the Coinshot now seems like it should be related to those of Rhino and Alb, since whichever team doesn’t have a bonus kill presumably would have extra protection to compensate. And I doubt 2 village Lurchers exist in the game, because if the elims had a Coinshot that they lost before killing either Lurcher, the Lurchers could trade protection and be invincible. So that means either an elim Lurcher, and probably either Rhino/Alb is elim, or a couple of Thugs, probably one of which is v/e with the Coinshot. Of course, Hyena could have been responsible for Alb surviving as well. And Rhino is so inactive that an elim Coinshot might have attacked him as a sort of bus, although that is weird unless there are no other inactive elims.

Meerkat had to have been saved by a Lurcher since he's not a Thug. I don't see why a village Lurcher would have protected Rhino so they're either a Thug/pewter Mistborn or were saved by an elim Lurcher/Iron Mistborn. Hyena being responsible for saving Alb would mean there's an elim who Seeked Falcon N1 and an elim who sent in a Tineye message N1 who are unaccounted for.

[Oxblood Beagle]

4 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Meerkat had to have been saved by a Lurcher since he's not a Thug. I don't see why a village Lurcher would have protected Rhino so they're either a Thug/pewter Mistborn or were saved by an elim Lurcher/Iron Mistborn. Hyena being responsible for saving Alb would mean there's an elim who Seeked Falcon N1 and an elim who sent in a Tineye message N1 who are unaccounted for.

I suspect the Tineye has either gone mostly inactive, or is a hidden Mistborn. There's a good chance the elims had a second Mistborn, if not the Coinshot, with the survival roles, but I'm more likely to start suspecting all of those who keep surviving.

For that reason, Albatross. It's not just your survival, but some of your voting record and interactions with Cham.

[Magenta Albatross]

18 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I suspect the Tineye has either gone mostly inactive, or is a hidden Mistborn. There's a good chance the elims had a second Mistborn, if not the Coinshot, with the survival roles, but I'm more likely to start suspecting all of those who keep surviving.

For that reason, Albatross. It's not just your survival, but some of your voting record and interactions with Cham.

What interactions with Cham make me suspicious to you? On day 5 when Penguin was PMing looking for info on Cham I gladly let them know what had happened in our pm D1, this was(I believe) before any votes had even been put on Cham that day. So what reason would I have for making a teammate look bad? I don't recall anything prior to that, though I could be misremembering, that connected me to Cham. Meerkat even said in one of the their last reads lists before D5 ended that if either Cham or I was elim the other was likely village.

[Oxblood Beagle]

45 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

What interactions with Cham make me suspicious to you? On day 5 when Penguin was PMing looking for info on Cham I gladly let them know what had happened in our pm D1, this was(I believe) before any votes had even been put on Cham that day. So what reason would I have for making a teammate look bad? I don't recall anything prior to that, though I could be misremembering, that connected me to Cham. Meerkat even said in one of the their last reads lists before D5 ended that if either Cham or I was elim the other was likely village.

Didn't you have some defense posts for Cham? Maybe that was someone else.

Sorry if I'm wrong. I'm recovering from feeling like crem yesterday and being incredibly tired today.

Tomorrow should give me enough time to verify and pin down my read list, but I'm comfortable with the vote where it is for now.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Okay I'm sort of confused as to whom to go next , there's 15 players left so -  

Village - Ostrich, Meerkat, Penguin, Axolotl, Zebra, Scorpion, Flamingo
Remaining - Heron, Beagle, Elephant, Dingo, Rhino, Albatross, Dragonfly, Mouse

Arguments for V in Remaining pile - 

1. Heron - Insistence on E!Meerkat even after the gambit reveal
2. Beagle - NULL
3. Elephant - Way too inactive to be an elim/NULL
4. Dingo - Non-Intervention when elim teammates in danger
5. Rhino - NULL
6. Albatross - Very quick vote on Meerkat on seeing the Tineye message, Gorilla's votes on them during danger
7. Dragonfly - NULL
8. Mouse - NULL

Arguments for E in the Remaining pile - 

1. Heron - Only voting in side trains, avoiding main train discussion
2. Beagle - Voting pattern
3. Elephant - Asking for PMs to appear to be involved and not follow through
4. Dingo - Non-Intervention [yes same reason to both V and E argument ]
5. Rhino - Survived a kill, voted for Falcon when Gorilla train was coming up
6. Albatross - Survived a kill, voting pattern
7. Dragonfly - Sort of meta out of game reason being the GMs replaced Dragonfly and Mouse, ahead of Toucan
8. Mouse - Same as above ^

From this, Albatross and Rhino are the standouts for me, but there's a stronger case for v!Albatross than v!Rhino [which is nothing]. I do feel like it's time we get to know the alignment for the 'attacked but survived' players because we have 2 Lurchers and 1 Thug basically confirmed village [Falcon and the Lurcher in Meerkat claims to be in contact with because they clearly saved him, Thug being Toucan], so Plum Rhinoceros

Edit: To get some clarity, @Plum Rhinoceros, what are you? Thug who survived due to double life? Lurcher self-protecting?

Edited January 19, 2022 by Fuchsia Ostrich

[Ivory Dragonfly]

urgh sorry guys been real low energy the last week

been mostly keeping up with thread but emotion high threads and runaway trains werent super motivational

dont probs have a lot to add but initial thoughts would be looking at rhino given they were a target but imma gonna wait for them to turn up first if possible

looking over day five id reckon penguin is safe given they directed the vote to chameleon with a big wall of text

suppose its never a guarantee but imma not gonna stress over that for the moment

scorp did have a vote on chameleon already but dunno if id immediately rule them out as spiked though that sorta post feels like youd want to have a buddy post soon after to direct the vote elsewhere

anyways think meerkats relatively safe too from previous threads but now seems a dangerous time to attack your own team with the night kill and use your protection when theres still a coinshot on the loose

mouse pushed the train to a third carriage and that feels something a spiked def wouldnt risk

zebras explaination lite vote isnt too early to be a spiked jumping onna train though and after that not sure much more can be read into further voting

inclined to think albatross spiked is unlikely with chameleons go to vote target being them

so tldr on reads

alb mouse meerkat penguin seem good

scorp and zebra dont have enough to put them in the other group based just on the voting of day 5

rhino being saved from coinshot is not enough info by itself

and imma gonna need to actually read stuff on the rest being ostrich dingo heron flamingo beagle elephant and axolotl

[Salmon Meerkat]

7 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

And I doubt 2 village Lurchers exist in the game, because if the elims had a Coinshot that they lost before killing either Lurcher, the Lurchers could trade protection and be invincible.

Okay, but if I got Lurched by an Elim Lurcher, you're saying that a team who has lost three members was willing to forgo the kill to do a WGG variant on me to softclear the Lurcher? I feel like if you believe that the lack of resistance to Cham's lynch was due to lack of resources on the Spiked team's part rather than lack of willingness, you should also be lightly committed to the notion that willingly giving up a kill this cycle is hard for them.

Because I'm the Tineye who's been sending beautiful art each Turn  The only way I could plausibly survive is if I got Lurched.

And what if the Elim team had, for instance, two or three Mistborn as well? Would that change your calculus?

6 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Meerkat even said in one of the their last reads lists before D5 ended that if either Cham or I was elim the other was likely village.

N5 actually. D5 I was hoping someone would bite on your CW so I could get more info  

But in short, there's a certain amount of vote count disorganisation that reads V/E to me at the end of D2. Could you guys have been putting on that show? I suppose; it's not implausible. But I lean V/E for the moment which means a light commitment to V!Alb rather than E!Alb for now.

Mint Heron - I lean V on Heron in reads but I feel like the cycle is young and Heron can take some pressure because I'm less fond of Heron's side-train dominance and voting patterns. If we think there was some form of Elim action D5, then the question is whether Heron was indulging in splinter train tactics or not to take the pressure off Cham.

I also dislike Azure Mouse's votes: D5 is okay, nothing extraordinary, but it comes in a cycle where I feel we are mildly committed to the notion Cham was bussed. This requires me to believe at least one of <Zebra, Mouse, Albatross> is Evil, due to my current credences, though we can throw Flamingo inside as an outsider possibility if we want to, I guess. Of the three of them, @Azure Mouse is the one I have most ??? about.

Quote

Pearl Chameleon (8): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Violet Axolotl
Magenta Albatross (2): Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron

D2, Azure Mouse shows up for no reason to vote Iguana and follows Hyena and Cham. From my read of how Azure Mouse was engaging with the game, this looks like a more inexperienced Elim following teammates onto a train, and would be happy to pursue that line of questioning further. I recognise it's unfair to Mouse 2.0 to expect them to be able to account for the actions of their predecessor, but I have to say that's my current view of that vote.

@Ivory Dragonfly oh hello there

[Chartreuse Penguin]

No flips is disappointing as I very much would've liked to see Rhino flip without wasting a day turn on it. Am not going to entertain WGG on Meerkat ideas, because I reckon the elims just wanna kill as many villagers as possible right now.:P 

I would like to believe Alb is village, as I find it hard to believe they'd bus Cham after losing two teammates already. I'm not softclearing Alb on this basis, but I lean slight village nonetheless. 

There seem to be a couple of votes on Heron - I do agree that their secluded voting style throughout the game has been odd, and the only reason I'm village-reading them is for that one time when they voted on Meerkat after he revealed his tineye scan gambit, which just seemed too much for an elim to do:

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/?app=core&module=system&controller=content&do=find&content_class=forums_Topic&content_id=104196&content_commentid=1293022

But moving on, let's talk about Oxblood Beagle today. As evidenced by my D3 vote, I have been suspecting them a little bit for a while. But it wasn't until both the Hyena and Cham flips that I felt the need to bring them up again.

During Night 1, Beagle posted their opinions on Gorilla, Iguana, and Cham (bc D1 CWs). What first stands out is Beagle defending Cham:

Quote

I'm inclined to trust Chameleon a little more because of the lack of response to their exe for the first day and a half. It wasn't until votes started shifting towards the other two that people started getting more involved (though whether that's from the late hour or one of them being elim is unclear).

And then, towards the end of the post they conclude that:

Quote

With the voting patterns, I am more suspicious of Gorilla than Iguana or Chameleon. This means I also want to look more closely at those on the Crocodile and Iguana trains a little more closely, since those were the main ones that attempted to save Gorilla.

This statement in and of itself is not that suspicious given that Gorilla was indeed an elim, however Beagle neglected to cast an actual vote on Gorilla because:

Quote

The one thing that bothers me, though, is how close all of the votes were left, even with the last-minute frantic scramble for self-presing. If either of the three were elims, we should have seen a little more distance in those late votes to protect one or the other.

and they instead voted on Ostrich in the same post, whom they had never before mentioned in their post at all. This entire post reads very odd to me/

Then, on D3, we have this post from Cham where they give their thoughts on the current exe situation and vote on Falcon. Cham also subtly defends Beagle against the two votes on them:

Quote

I can understand the suspicion on Gorilla a bit, though I am still struggling to get a grip on how I feel about them. I do not understand the suspicion of Beagle. It seems, to me, to be a reaction to them being cautious of the Tineye message, correct? Personally, I do not think their reaction was unwarranted, especially since it turns out that Meerkat was simply playing us all along [….] I would be fine with exing any of Emerald Falcon, Magenta Albatross (who I have had a growing suspicion of for awhile as well), or Turquoise Gorilla. My preference for exing those players today is in that order.

Cham's vote on Falcon doesn't look great on Beagle either, because at this stage the vote count was:

Salmon Meerkat (4): Magenta Albatross, Fuchsia Ostrich, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly,
Emerald Falcon (2): Salmon Meerkat, Amethyst Scorpion
Turquoise Gorilla (2): Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, 
Oxblood Beagle (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon

Cham chose to vote on Falcon over Gorilla and Beagle. Granted, it's possible that Cham was simply indifferent with regards to where his vote went as long as it didnt facilitate the Gorilla lynch. But the choice of having picked Falcon over Beagle is still a fact. If we are looking at v!Beagle, Cham could've chosen to write them off as a secondary suspect to Falcon, just in case the Falcon exe doesn't take off and they need to switch their vote to the Beagle train later in order to save Gorilla. However, Cham did the opposite and defended Beagle instead - didn't even include them in the exe preferences at all. 

Furthermore, there's this post of Beagle's, also from D3. Nothing so weird about the post overall, except that Beagle's read on Cham seems to change without explanation in different places within the same post. Initially, they say:

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Chameleon votes Falcon for similar reasons to why I'm considering that vote as well. Nothing in particular stands out about this post. Falcon and Cham are not likely e/e, and I'm feeling worse about Falcon atm. So, Cham bumps to null here, depending on a Falcon flip.

(bolded mine)

And further down in the same post:

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Pearl Chameleon -/+ Light village for now. Their reaction was odd, but not in a way that felt overtly elim

Contradictory reads, as they had been null earlier.

Hyena also posted that turn, giving his thoughts on the current exe candidates:

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Oxblood is a comparatively meh option for the aforementioned mindmeld / Salmon read (though now that I was ninja'd by a big post that ends with a fourth Emerald vote, I'm starting to consider if I'd prefer it over Turquoise).

Initially sus because Hyena is subtly defending Beagle. And I can also see this being a mild form of distancing if e!Beagle because while Hyena does say he might vote on them, he never actually does and in fact afaik he barely even mentioned beagle after this.

Furthermore Cham posted a reads list on D3 as well, with Beagle as:

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Oxblood Beagle: I think this player is genuinely trying to solve the game. Their reads list, while a bit minimalist, are definitely helpful at seeing what they are seeing in other players. Could their voting be a little more robust? Yes, perhaps. But overall, I am leaning village on this player for their level of effort. To me, they seem like they are genuine, even if I may not agree with all of their reads.

Again, red flags. Blatant defence. 

Anyway yea idk

[Violet Axolotl]

3 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Okay, but if I got Lurched by an Elim Lurcher, you're saying that a team who has lost three members was willing to forgo the kill to do a WGG variant on me to softclear the Lurcher? I feel like if you believe that the lack of resistance to Cham's lynch was due to lack of resources on the Spiked team's part rather than lack of willingness, you should also be lightly committed to the notion that willingly giving up a kill this cycle is hard for them.

Because I'm the Tineye who's been sending beautiful art each Turn  The only way I could plausibly survive is if I got Lurched.

And what if the Elim team had, for instance, two or three Mistborn as well? Would that change your calculus?

Yeah, there should probably be some caveats to that statement. For instance, there appears to be no village Seeker, so two Lurchers actually finding and trusting each other like that isn’t super likely (as seen with Falcon’s death). And yeah, several elim Mistborn would also work as a counterbalance. Unfortunately, we don’t have evidence of that yet. And even having the potential of a mechanically unwinnable game for the elims seems... worrying. I’m still not really interested in a role vote right now, but maybe people should reveal once we clear out all the quiet folks, which is likely in 2-3 cycles.

I do feel like, depending on who’s left on the elim team, they might go for some pretty risky plays here. But that might just be my inner elim talking. Giving up a kill hurts, but a soft-clear can be pretty powerful at this stage when we’ve started poking in the corners for the remaining elims.