Mid-Range Game 30/Anonymous Game 2: - Scadrian Black Ops

[Amber Vulture]

--RP--

Vacuous arguments were about the only noise in the ship, still slowly but surely making its way to the Scadrial orbit. Liseran found a quiet and secluded corner to practice away from prying eyes. She sat on the hard metal floor, facing pipes that ran from floor to ceiling.

Valves jutted out from a few of them. They were emergency cut-offs for different gasses and liquids being sent to and from all the chambers of the ship. She would need to avoid those ones, if she could.

Virtually any chances to practice on this metal trap had been overcome with other needs and questions. Liseran took a deep breath and closed her eyes. It had been a while since she had practiced, so she would need to focus, meditate first. She felt at the soft cloth around her arms, and imagined being back home, learning for the first time.

Verdant fields spread out before her, sprinkled with spots of the brightly colored wild flowers. He stood beside her, a sweet smile on his lips as he demonstrated how to properly instruct the cloth. His hand brushed hers as he showed her how motion could carry a command. Liseran's eyes shot open again.

Violent anger rose inside her as she thought of him. No, those thoughts would not help her focus. She closed her eyes again and brought her mind to more pleasant thoughts. Ones that didn't involve him.

Very quietly, she stood again and tugged once at the end of the cloth on her right hand. She felt it loosen, just slightly. With a flash of movement, she threw the cloth at a pipe, keeping hold of one end. She had sent with it an order to grab, nothing else. The cloth hit... and fell limply to the ground.

Vain hopes crashed down inside her. It really had been too long. But she would not give up. She would need to get it to work if she wanted to defeat him. Liseran spent what felt like hours throwing the cloth at the pipe until finally...

Victorious.

[Azure Mouse]

7 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Azure Mouse

• For a very active player, Mouse's play has been remarkably safe and under the radar.
• Especially in the Falcon/Vulture lynch last cycle, they were totally active, but careful not to be too closely associated with either lynch.  Because, I imagine both were going to result in village deaths.  I should ask, if you had genuine misgivings about both lynches, why would you not bring up a third candidate?
• You eventually backed the Falcon lynch.  Obviously I voted for Falcon too, but I am starting to think that voters on Falcon are pretty suspect.  Because I am betting that if the Fleeing Informant role was anything at all special to the eliminators, that they put the pieces together.  They would realize what Falcon was, and ensured that Falcon would be lynched last cycle, to save them a kill.  (this theory is also supported slightly by the vote manipulation reinforcing the lynch on Falcon)
• Mouse is definitely the most active player in a swiftly shrinking pool of suspects.  I would rather put off lynching them because of that.  Also though, balance would strongly suggest that the eliminator team should have a significantly active member, and Mouse is practically the only person that fits the bill.

Hey, what's up Ivory? Sorry for the lateish reply, I was kind of sleeping. But anyway, let me respond to these things first, and then I'll go over the other stuff. Cool.

• I mean, I guess you could classify that as an elim move, but I'm not totally convinced I was under the radar, especially in the Albatross lynch. In fact, I think I recall being one of the people who were most adamant on getting Albatross lynch, which was a wrong lynch anyway, but apart from that, I can see what you're saying. I just don't know if being safe and under the radar is really that much evidence. Of all the votes I've put, I've justified it with enough evidence.
• About that lynch, I wasn't on the team that immediately classified Emerald as a threat and voted on him, nor was I on the counter-lynch team. I just wanted there to be a way Falcon could help the village without getting himself killed, hence my questions. Melon has already talked to me regarding the questions. Anyway, it seems that when you combed my posts, you read them with the assumption that I was an elim. You ask why I didn't start a third vote, and the truth is, I was stuck then as much as I am now, so I didn't know who to vote for. Besides, starting a completely different lynch when most people where either on side A or B didn't seem like a wise choice to me. You ask me this because you think that since I was an elim I would have my teammates to back me up, but the frank truth is that even if I made a separate lynch, I wouldn't have any teammates to vote for that same person, which was why I didn't vote. And thus, being the only vote on a person didn't seem like a good I choice, especially when I didn't know who was elim or not.
• As said before, each vote I gave had evidence and reasoning attached to it. Falcon was voted on by me for a completely separate reason than what your painting, and I'm surprised you didn't link the original post so that people could see for themselves. I voted Falcon because he wasn't answering my questions and was therefore not helping the village, which pointed him to an anti-village role for me. Plus, although I don't know what the elims know, I don't see how anyone could 'put the pieces together' when it came to Falcon, who was sorta jumping all over the place with claims. Also, solely accusing me or Amethyst (since I don't think Tuatara voted Falcon) of being vote manips seems like your cherry picking. Anyone who voted on Falcon could be the vote manipulator, heck, we don't even know how it works so it might not even work like that. Solely pointing at me and Amethyst seems like you had all your other arguments and decided to throw that in there last minute.
• Ha, the funny thing is, I've sort of surprised myself with my activity. Though who you are in real life is not supposed to be judgement factor, the size and amounts of analysis and RP are highly unusual for me. Take that as you will, but all I'm saying is you wouldn't expect me to be a super active player if you were adding me to a game, though I guess that sort of changes after this one.

Woah, long post again. Sorry for the people who are asleep and have to wake up to all my rebuttals. Still, it doesn't seem we're done here.

8 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Selecting Penguin from the pool of "suspicious people" does not seem like a coincidence.  Mouse is conspicuously not mentioning that Penguin already had a vote on them, when I find it very difficult to believe that this is not playing a role in their decision to vote for Penguin.  The accusation itself also does't feel all that convicted.  And while that's totally fine (I believe villagers should always share their opinions, whether or not they feel sure about them), it also opens the door pretty wide for there being motives that aren't being said.

To me, it sounds a lot like Mouse is protecting somebody.

Quote

Lynch me if I'm wrong. Heck, if I'm wrong this time I'll put the vote on myself.

As defenses go, this feels like a really strong overreaction, especially because nobody has actually accused Mouse yet.  It really feels like they already know the lynch they just contributed to is destined to fizzle, and they want to cover themselves when it does.

 

So who is Mouse protecting with that vote?  The obvious choices are either Tuatara or Dingo.  Both of them are listed as suspects by multiple people.  Both of them have votes today.  One of those two was probably going to get my vote.

But, Tuatara or Dingo being in danger seems kind of familiar.  Recall cycle 1.  Tuatara was rapidly gaining votes.  Multiple people had bad gut reads on Dingo.

If my theory holds much water, it should hold for cycle 1, as well.

In the first cycle, Mouse kept their vote on Albatross.  This was after Albatross delivered what imo was a pretty villager-y defense that precipitated the Tuatara votes, and Mouse was certainly present in-thread if they had wanted to change it.  Obviously, that isn't damning evidence in itself.  But this interaction definitely lines up, if Mouse was on the same team as either Tuatara or Dingo.  Mouse is not openly defending either of them, but I really wouldn't expect a direct defense on the first day for an eliminator, especially when Mouse already had their vote on the best counter-lynch available and didn't need to do anything.

Okay, I didn't explicitly mention Penguin already had a vote on them, but I did say at the end that if you compared my evidence with others you'd also be suspicious of Penguin, which I meant to imply that others have also been suspicious of him. As for conviction, what can I say? I'm stuck, and I'm getting more and more aprehensive to voting, based on the past two mislynches, which I feel sort of responsible for (especially the Albatross lynch). Anyway, your right, I'm not sure about Penguin. These elims are good, but I figured Penguin was suspicious among them. You say it seems I'm protecting somebody, but backing a vote with my own (reaosnably sound) evidence doesn't seem lie, protecting, but I guess others can make that call.

About that overreaction thing, honestly, people have been suspicious of me, albeit less. Your second post this cycle is using POE to single out a group of people who you think are suspicious, me included. It wasn't a direct accusation, but compare that with some other things that've been said, and Magenta's vote on me (who we discovered was village) and it really seems to me the next time I give my arguments and it ends in a mislynch is the day people finally turn on me. As for knowing the lynch is going to fizzle, it's not that I know the lynch is going to fail, I just worry that'll it end up in a mislynch, as I'm increasingly uncertain of who's bad or good.

Your reasoning now says that I kept my vote on Magenta, which means I didn't vote for Tuatara, which lines up with your assumption. If I'm going to be honest, starting the counter-lying against Tuatara stregthened my vote, not because Tuatara was supposedly my partner, but because starting a counter-lynch against an inactive with NAI posts seemed like such an elim thing to do. The fact that Tuatara was inactive just meant that he wouldn't be able to defend himself, and starting a counter-lynch with your seemingly elim buddies on a guy who can't defend himself and isn't suspious kinda solidified my reasoning. Obviously, Magenta was innocent, but still.

But wait! There's more.

8 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

 

Apart from Scorpion's behavior, there are some other reasons I think Mouse was specifically protecting Tuatara:

• Tuatara is the one that was actually in danger on D1, not Dingo.
• Dingo is fairly active but if anything has less incriminating evidence then Tuatara despite that fact.  I don't see much of a connection between Dingo and Mouse/Scorpion, beyond the possibility of being defended.
• Tuatara is the one voting on Penguin this cycle, which I regard as suspect.  Granted, elims don't generally vote one after another like Tuatara and Mouse are doing, but considering that Mouse has not been accused at all before now, and that Tuatara could claim self-defense, and that they aren't that far from winning in a game of this size, I could definitely see it.
• In light of the Falcon business, I'm definitely not going to suspect Dingo for the color-coding thing, so that's one of the few solid evidences against Dingo that now no longer applies.

 

Also, it might just be me, but I don't get the feeling Scorpion and Mouse have interacted with each other very much at all in this game.  Which is kind of weird, considering that they are both pretty active and have interacted with a lot of players.  Might be distancing.

 

I think I've explained why I wasn't defending, but I decided to add this so people reading my Defense could see whether it works for them.

Amethyst and I haven't really argued on anything, because none of us have really had conflicting opinions. As I write this I realise how elim that sounds , but it's kind of true. I haven't really seen I reason why I would need to argue with Amethyst, and it might be the same on their end. Plus, Amethyst hasn't RPd, so I couldn't really interact with them on that end. Anyway, it's a shirt point, and you get a short Defense.

Okay, that's all for now.

[Amber Vulture]

Alright, we're 3 hours from the end of cycle, with the vote count as follows:

Melon Dingo (1) - Amber Vultuer
Cream Tuatara (3) - Amethyst Scorpion, Indigo Weasel, Ivory Dragonfly
Chartreuse Penguin (3) - Azure Mouse, Cream Tuatara, Melon Dingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1) - Chartreuse Penguin
Indigo Weasel (1) - Coral Swan

The only one who has not cast a vote this cycle is @Mauve Crocodile. Would you like to weigh in?

Partially because I'm curious to see what happens if there's a tie, and partially because I'm curious to see which way vote manipulation swings (if it can be used again), I'm going to leave my vote where it is.

[Mauve Crocodile]

Sorry, I'm here. I've had power and Internet issues all day. I probably don't have time to give anything unique on either of the two up for lynch, but I'll give my thoughts on what has already been said.

 

Cream Tuatara

On 7/15/2018 at 1:36 PM, Indigo Weasel said:

Remember, this cycle, I'll be less analysis oriented. I'm in the mountains. But I'll start off the voting discussion, which is important every cycle by putting a vote down for cream tuatara who I voted for on the first cycle, and after he tied with albatross, there was a counter against albatross again. 

I agree, this doesn't look especially good. But Albatross must have been set up, and since the information level was so low in C1 and votes were put on people for not great reasons, there's a reasonable chance that both sides of that lynch were being set up. I don't believe that there was much of a reason to vote on Tuatara in C1, and the defence against them was likely people defending someone who wasn't guilty of anything. I wouldn't say that it was a counter.

 

13 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Cream Tuatara

• Narrowly survived being lynched early in the game. A truly surpising number of players in this position turn out to be eliminators.
• Did not arrive on scene for the last cycle's vote, so I am attaching more significance to their vote for this cycle.
• Not very active, so I wouldn't expect much evidence either for or against them.  But of the small amount of information I do have, all of it is either NAI or suspicious.
• If Tuatara is innocent, but I'm right about the other two, then I'd wager Dingo is the actual third elim.

• As I've said above, I don't believe that it says all that much. Especially considering how the vote on Tuatara started, which was Magenta suggesting it out of the blue and having several people jump on it. It would be random chance (unless Informants know something more) if Tuatara was an Elim, which makes that occurrence NAI.
• Agreed, I've seen Elims in the past offer little reasoning for their votes and only show up to lynch Villagers. I suppose that they hope that it protects them in the long run.
• Yes, perhaps trying to hide in plain sight and avoid suspicion. By this point I'd expect some contributions.
• I haven't liked Dingo's behaviour so far in this game, but that's not really relevant at the moment because they're not up for lynch.

 

10 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Also, in the interest of consolidating votes against a lynchwagon I am pretty suspicious of, Tuatara.

Not enough to sway me.

 

9 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Cream Tuatara.

A grand total of six posts. 

First one says I'm here

Second one agrees with Azure and conveniently hops on the Albatross bandwagon

Third one talks about Falcon lynch, but takes no stand. Also self contradiction.

Fourth one indicates they believe elims had part in Falcon lynch

Fifth votes on Penguin because Ivory and I suspect them

Sixth points out that no one from Ivory's suspected elim team voted to save them

Of all the posts above, the only opinion Tautara actually gives is the elims partaking  in the Falcon lynch. Which is quite a safe thing to say, considering there were eight votes on Falcon, one of them being due to a vote manip.

Post count is hard to get alignment out of, as much as I dislike low contributions. The telling point is when an Elim gets lynched and you can see that not only has a person not contributed, but their only votes have been to lynch Villagers. But that hasn't happened yet, so I don't think that much can be drawn from it. So instead of suspecting Tuatara for this, I'm just not very impressed.

1. Can't say much about this.
2. Following bandwagons and not contributing much either looks like a low-activity player following the crowd, or it looks like an Elim trying to push favourable lynches for them. Can't read much from that.
3. Again, that post could be explained by low activity or a new player being unsure.
4. Not surprising.
5. At this point, I would sort of expect them to have some of their own opinions, but I'll give that a pass because I'm not giving any new opinions in this very post.
6. A reasonable thing to say.

Is this really a reason to vote on them? Is it because they're not being helpful? I think that the point to lynch such people is at the start, or once things quieten down and the real suspects have all been lynched. Not now, when we have other suspicions and incriminating behaviour.

 

Chartreuse Penguin

On 7/15/2018 at 5:04 PM, Cream Tuatara said:

I’m going to vote on Penguin, since they voted for Falcon and show up on both Dragonfly and Scoprion’s suspect lists.

I would prefer some more detailed thoughts on this. I think that it's relevant, since Dragonfly is one of the more helpful and prolific players here, but I'd prefer that people don't just follow a leader, given that a Villager wouldn't know whom to trust.

 

On 7/15/2018 at 5:10 PM, Azure Mouse said:

Okay, wow, not many people talking today. Anyway, I've come up with my vote, and I might not vote again if I get it wrong this time too. *super deep sigh* Chartreuse Penguin, my vote is on you. You're one of the people that's coming up quite frequently in our suspicion lists. People are uncertain about you, but I personally think that might be because of your inactivity and lack of material to analyze than your posts themselves. However, I still think that you're at least a bit more suspicious than the others. Lynch me if I'm wrong. Heck, if I'm wrong this time I'll put the vote on myself.

1. Your first post is you checking in, saying hello, and stating that your original assumption about account-swapping was that the roles and wincons switched too, and that you changed your mind about this pretty abruptly. This makes me wonder if your initial assumption was before the game started, and since you were put in an elim team your assumptions changed, because there weren't many in-thread things that could have changed your mind, so that makes me think a doc-chat might have changed it. Perhaps with a Kandra partner in your elim doc?

2. Okay, your second post explains and answers my first point, since you were confronted by Amethyst for an answer as to why the sudden thought change. You said that you thought about it a bit more and it seemed unbalanced to have a wincon switch. Though you 'thinking about it more' could be a reason, it seems...like a cop out? No offense. Also, how would having a role and wincon switch be unbalanced exactly? I don't see it.

3. Your third post is a defense of Magenta and an apology for being inactive. You say that Magenta's posts seem NAI because its a normal play for Pyro, though when Magenta himself defended himself with this claim, I debunked it, so nothing really new there. Yeah, I know I was wrong anyway with regards to Magenta, but still. No comment on the inactive thing. Things happen.

4. Your fourth post is a defense of Emerald, asking him to reveal his role. Now, it starts coming off a bit suspicious how you knew both of them were villagers and defended them both. Since elims know fellow elims and know that everyone else is a villager, it sort of makes sense how you'd be able to know both of them would be villagers, and defended them both despite high lynches against them. You knew that they would die anyway, and so you defended them in hopes of getting 'nice points' as well as them dying. If this was one case I wouldn't be too suspicious, but this was on two different players who were both getting hit by high lynches, and you knew both of them were villagers and defended them both, despite your inactivity? Sounds like you were capitalizing on their lynches by defending them and ending up right, as well as them being dead. Additionally, the fact that your defending Emerald but also asking him to reveal his role is pretty suspicious, its like you're an elim judging whether to use your kill on him or not.

5. Your fifth post is going directly against your fourth and is attacking Emerald, saying how he's suspicious and how he might be detrimental to the village and pretty much the opposite of your last post, and that if you were an elim you'd kill him, which is an odd phrase I haven't heard anyone use. But I guess you didn't need to use your kill on him, because the lynch got him anyway. Again, this is a direct contrast to the last post. Hypocrisy? NOTE: This is the same post that Emerald responded to 'What I would do if I was in your place'. It definitely seems like he knows something here, and we don't know what powers an Informant has, so it might be a subtle clue, as Amber picked up on. It all points to you.

Your sixth and final post is saying your scared of a jester role? But what reason would you have to be scared?

Woah, that was a long post, and it's my hope I'm correct in my hypothesis. Anyway, I thought I'll leave this for people to take action on, because things definitely seem too odd for comfort. All you need to do is add this to the other pieces that people have said on Chartreuse to get a full picture on his alignment. Thanks for getting this far, though.

1. I think that changing their mind quickly is pretty NAI. Everyone would be confused by the lack of rules, and some thought into it could change their mind quickly without having to state that they've changed their mind in the thread. Perhaps they just realised that they were wrong, and wanted to gloss over the fact because no one likes being wrong. While it is explainable by them being in a doc, it's also explainable without that.
2. See point 1. This does sort of feel like you're reaching for a conclusion here.
3. Nothing more to say here.
4. Yeah, I can see that. Pocketing someone who is about to die is an effective way of guaranteeing favour. The saying "fool me once" is relevant here. I agree with Azure in that Penguin is coming in after being inactive, and instead of offering some more neutral analysis is already defending two players, is pretty weird. I'm looking for people who know more than they should, which should be particularly obvious in this game due to the blackout format, and this seems like Penguin had a grasp of the situation particularly well after just arriving. That would imply a team or a doc to catch them up, and anyone who seems too sure is instantly suspicious in my eyes.
5. Flip-flopping also looks bad for Penguin. There's not much progression of thought, and while you could say that they went away and thought about it, that starts to seem like an excuse for suspicious behaviour. It seems like Penguin is trying to solidify the lynch on Emerald at the cost of the 'nice points' as Azure says that he could have earned by pocketing him.

This is pretty damning on its own, and I agree with most of it.

 

11 hours ago, Melon Dingo said:

Since I would rather not leave myself open to possible vote manipulation, I'm going to place a vote on Chartreuse Penguin.

Vote-manipulation is a thing in this game, so this seems reasonable.

 

The Verdict

I think that both Penguin (no, I'm not going to learn how to consistently spell Chartreuse) and Tuatara are suspicious. However, Tuatara's crimes seem to mostly be quietness and not being very helpful. Penguin has pocketed a doomed Villager and flip-flopped to solidify the vote. The Village is down four players (assuming that Informants are even Village-aligned), and so lynching an unhelpful inactive is, in and of itself, unhelpful.

For those reasons, and with apologies for my inactivity and a promise to be more active from now on, Chartreuse Penguin.

I will state that I am aware that voting this late and tipping the balance, especially if Penguin flips Village, will probably doom me. I'm willing to take that risk for the Village. Lynch me if you must.

[Seonid]

Cycle is over!

[Seonid]

MR30: Cycle 4: A Stew Long-simmering

After a night fraught with fear and paranoia, the occupants of the Pride of Terris were relieved to see their shipmates all alive as they began to each wake up. Bailey was slower to rise, having spent half the night with one eye half open, fighting sleep to watch for any intruders. Groggily, she finally got up, nodding thankfully to V as he passed out rations of bread. Fortunately, their food supply would last them until they reached Scadrial, if they were frugal. Unfortunately, the reason for this—four fewer occupants on board the ship, and no closer to finding any killers—was not looking close to being solved anytime soon.

That didn’t mean the refugees wouldn’t try. In what had become a sickening custom, they all met in the commons area once again, and began once more discussion on who among them was a killer.

Accusations were particularly strong against a Penguin, whose coloration was an odd shade of yellow-green. V was one of the first to present evidence. “After looking through the papers of the man in emerald, it looks like he was carrying valuable information. And yesterday, you said, and I quote, that ‘I find the risks of leaving you alive too great’ when you accused him. That looks mightily suspicious in light of what we found Falcon really was.”

Penguin bit his lip, wobbling slightly from side to side. “That’s...fair, but how was I supposed to know Falcon was working for the cops? As I recall, you were one of the more vocal supporters of us chucking him out the airlock, and you took part in it, too!”

Bailey took his side. “Yeah, V. You have been mighty helpful in letting me fetch ingredients, but how do I know you’re not just using that as a ploy to gain my trust? You could well be a killer, along with people like Scorpion. However, I’m more suspicious of that lizard over there.” He pointed an accusing finger at an albino Tuatara, which merely shrugged. “I’d rather kill Penguin, personally,” it said flatly.

More debating ensued, but eventually, for whatever reason, the group eventually adjudicated that Penguin was more guilty. Some had cited the desire to never have to say the word chartreuse ever again, but most acted in self-preservation, or a desperate sense of hope, that this time the killing would work out. The Penguin attempted to squawk out a final plea, but one of the crew cuffed him in the mouth with a well-thrown punch. More ensued, and Bailey averted her eyes as Penguin was buried under a flurry of vicious hits. She turned around, revolted, and had left the room before a shuddering cough, and then silence, announced that Penguin had drawn his final breath.

Disgusted with her fellows aboard the transport, she stalked towards the stewpot and began to mix ingredients. Venting her frustration, she poured and boiled water with a vigor and restrained fury that she had never felt before. Adding the necessary ingredients, she stirred the stew violently, causing some of the hot broth to splash on her forearm. Cursing softly, she spun around, springing away from the stewpot.

And straight into the knife of her killer.

A short time later in the commons area, the crew had found no evidence of Penguin’s guilt anywhere on him. In addition, several had begun to grow nervous, not having seen Bailey in a while. Was she really still mixing stew? It should have been ready an hour ago. Eventually Liseran stood up. “I’ll see what Bailey’s doing,” she said, moving into the other room. She returned soon after, looking pale. The others didn’t need to question her to figure out what happened. Bailey was dead.

In the corner, a pink swan preened its feathers, trying to not appear concerned. A flightless bird dead, and a flying insect. With the rest of his fellow birds lying dead, that didn’t bode well for him.

 

---------------------------------------------------

Vote Count:

Amethyst Scorpion (1): Chartreuse Penguin,

Chartreuse Penguin (5): Azure Mouse, Cream Tuatara, Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo,

Cream Tuatara (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Indigo Weasel, Ivory Dragonfly,

Indigo Weasel (1): Coral Swan,

Melon Dingo (1): Amber Vulture,

 

Ivory Dragonfly has been killed! They were a Refugee!

Chartreuse Penguin was lynched! They were a Refugee!

Cycle 4 has started! It will end in roughly 48 hours.

 

Spoiler

Reminder: Rules for Anonymous Accounts:

At the start of the game, you will be issued an anonymous account. There are a number of rules associated with the use of an Anonymous Account. Please follow them carefully. Given the potential for abuse of Anonymous Accounts, any rule breaking using the accounts will be dealt with harshly.
1) Do not change the password of the anonymous account you are issued. Orlok, Fifth and I will have access to all anonymous accounts for the duration of the game.
2) Do not use the anonymous accounts to PM any non-anonymous account, other than the accounts of the GMs. Please do not use your normal accounts to PM anonymous accounts.
3) Do not change anything cosmetic about the accounts, including member title, username, signature, and avatar.

4) Do no reveal your own identity or explicitly claim to be another player

 

Edited July 18, 2018 by Seonid

[Mauve Crocodile]

The remaining players, for everyone's convenience:

• Amber Vulture
• Amethyst Scorpion
• Azure Mouse
• Coral Swan
• Cream Tuatara
• Indigo Weasel
• Mauve Crocodile
• Melon Dingo

I'll also start the Cycle off by saying "Whoops", "[expletive deleted]", "[expletive deleted]", and that if people now suspect me for tipping the balance onto a Villager, I fully understand.

[Amber Vulture]

Another vote manipulation. That's not a good sign.

There are two (three?) possible reasons for the extra vote on Penguin:

1. Tuatara is an elim, and they were attempting to save their member by throwing down a vote on the other one up for lynch
2. The eliminators want to make it seem like the above was taking place, solidifying a lynch on them for today.
3. ? As possible with the vote on Falcon, it could be inherent vote weight. (After a review of this option, the only two people who voted on both Falcon and Penguin were Mouse and Croc. Both of them voted C1 on Albatross with no extra vote in the count, so this isn't really a valid option).

The options, however, present one of the classic IKYK situations. I will be looking a little closer at Tuatara, but for now, I'm thinking 2 is the more likely option. Throwing down vote manipulation to save a team member when you haven't lost anyone yet is a risky move. It will cause pretty much everyone to think they are suspicious the next cycle. But it's a really good way to get another villager lynched.

Also, regarding the Ivory kill, my guess is they were getting close to the truth on something. I'll be reviewing their posts this cycle, too, to see what they've shared. The previous two lynches were placed on people making little to no contribution. Kills that don't give us a lot of clues. This one, however, was on one of the more active players left making analysis.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Another vote manip. 

Considering that and Mauve's last minute vote on Penguin, one could say it's unlikely that Mauve is an elim. At the time, with their vote manip, the elims already had it in the bag. It was 4-3. So why would elim!Mauve place their vote on Penguin right before rollover? It's too much of a risk for an elim to take. But then again, IKYK. 

Dingo, Mauve, Tuatara, Mouse. (And maybe Vulture?) <-- the elims are somewhere in there 

Tuatara, Dingo, Mauve, and Mouse. That's the people I'm suspicious of, in that order.

Tuatara please stop surviving lynches.

I remember somembody saying early on that they think this game might be role-madness. Does anybody recall who that was? 

Also, the lack of evidence for any kinda account swaps at this stage is worrying.

[Azure Mouse]

I'm going to thump on the head whoever's playing Itiah when I figure that out.

Anyway, it seems that after the elims have gotten (maybe) all of the Informants, they're now looking for active players helping the village to kill next, which probably means me, unfortunately.

Azure Mouse, because I honestly feel really guilty for causing so many mislynches. I might just die by the elims anyway, but if you want to vote on me, the option's there.

[Seonid]

Writeup has been edited in. Thanks again to Fifth!

[Amber Vulture]

--RP--

When Liseran returned from finding Bailey's body, she found her secluded corner once again. Not to practice, but to calm her nerves. And hopefully avoid retching. Death was never a pleasant sight. In all of her work, she tried to leave people alive.

While that wasn't always an option, it made her feel better about what she did. At least only the people who deserved it would die. Usually. Her instincts had steered her wrong this time, and she'd helped kill an innocent. Now, more innocents were dying because she couldn't do more.

"Who? Who is doing this?" Liseran thought to herself as she leaned back against the cool metal wall. "With so few of us left, can I really trust anyone?"

----

Alright, I'm going back to my vote from yesterday. Dingo has felt off to me all game.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Azure Mouse we can't really afford mislynches now and that means we have to stay ahead of the vote manip. It would be nice if you put your vote on somebody you suspect.

Though if this is elim!Azure trying to display pathos, I'll smack you.:P 

[Amber Vulture]

As promised, a review of Ivory's posts from last cycle to see if there was something they may have said to incite the elim team's wrath.

C4 (sounds explodey )

• States we should take Falcon's "speculations" on the informant role seriously; worried about sudden death win-con; lists top suspects as:
  • Azure Mouse
  • Chartreuse Penguin
  • Cream Tuatara
  • Mauve Crocodile
  • Melon Dingo
• Second posts puts Azure Mouse, Amethyst Scorpion, and Cream Tuatara as a possible elim team. Votes on Scorpion.
• Gets into discussion with Scorpion and Tuatara.
• Votes on Tuatara to counter the lynch against Penguin.

I suspect there is at least one eliminator among those she named. I'm leaving my vote on Dingo for now, with the hopes more may show up and offer their opinions.

However, I'm likely to switch it to Tuatara if the voting comes down to them and someone else I feel is village.

Also, due to the scarcity of other people's posts, I feel like I'm posting entirely too much. Someone else say something! RP some more.... don't let me talk to myself. It gets weird.

[Indigo Weasel]

Hey guys! Still here! vacation 1 over. Vacation 2 starting in a couple days it's late for me, so I will look more into stuff in about 8 hours. My plan is to look into vote counts and see if I can find any apparent teamwork that's below the surface!

[Melon Dingo]

On 7/16/2018 at 10:38 AM, Azure Mouse said:

I'm going to thump on the head whoever's playing Itiah when I figure that out.

Anyway, it seems that after the elims have gotten (maybe) all of the Informants, they're now looking for active players helping the village to kill next, which probably means me, unfortunately.

Azure Mouse, because I honestly feel really guilty for causing so many mislynches. I might just die by the elims anyway, but if you want to vote on me, the option's there.

If only activity was an indicator of alignment. Azure Mouse. I don't like how you have been a driving force in every lynch so far, and they have all been innocents.

Also, I think your claims of feeling guilty sound like you are trying to avoid sounding like an elim. Instead of going for TWTBAW, it's not wolfy enough to be a wolf, and your self vote ploy is just that. A ploy to make us all think you are innocent.

Edit: Also, you are appearing on a lot of people's suspicions lists, but have managed to avoid accruing votes yourself.

2nd Edit: @Amber Vulture I think I have a way of proving I am a refugee, I'm just waiting to hear from Seonid to see if it's allowed or not. I'm hoping it will be.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Melon Dingo

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Okay, having reread the entire game I think I've come to the conclusion that these fleeing informants were indeed fleeing from something that wanted them dead. This something has probably already reached its wincon or is very close to. The fleeing informants probably got told in their gm pms that they're being hunted by a specific group/person. This would explain Falcon's posts. Also, I think this was why Fuchsia Ostrich was killed C2. They had clearly stated in-thread that the role fleeing informants might mean that they're on the run from something other than the rest of us, and then Ostrich got killed. The killer(s) was obviously hoping Ostrich had the informant role...they got Falcon lynched for them tho the same cycle so I imagine they didn't count C2 as a complete failure. 

I'm thinking this mysterious faction is the "elim team", considering that we've only been seeing one kill per cycle apart form the lynch. There's likely one or two more informants left. bla.

Their speculation of this might have been why Ivory was killed, eh elims? *wink wink?

I will point out that there was no vote manip C1. Even though that was the cycle where it would have been most helpful for the elims, I should think, seeing as how close the vote was. Unless both the candidates were village. Cream Tuatara. Yeah. Okay. Now. A new lynch target. hmmm

The player list 

Amber Vulture - iffy

Amethyst Scorpion - obviously vill

Azure Mouse - idek

Coral Swan - willing to bet he's village

Cream Tuatara - I'll let you off the hook for now

Indigo Weasel - tone is village. also I'm pretty sure I know who it is behind your account

Mauve Crocodile - the stunt you pulled last cycle certainly isn't something an elim would imo

Melon Dingo - I'm okay with lynching you

[Melon Dingo]

Why me? I've seen a few people say they think my posts are "off," but I have yet to see any good reasons for it.

If Vulture is, in your eyes, 'iffy,' why not a vote for him? Same with Tuatara. Why let him 'off the hook' to vote for someone you're not even providing suspicions about?

Also, see my edit above. I can prove I am village, I'm just waiting to hear if my proof is allowed or not. If someone is about to confirm themselves village, why would you place a vote on them?

Edit: Also, what is "idek"?

Edit 2: Azure Mouse. Amethyst Scorpion. I don't like how I'm being targeted with nothing except "I feel like it." It stinks of him being worried about my potential proof, since if I can prove my innocence, then others may be able to as well. An elim would be worried about this.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Melon Dingo

[Amethyst Scorpion]

11 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

Why me? I've seen a few people say they think my posts are "off," but I have yet to see any good reasons for it.

Well, there's no one big reason, I'll admit. Just small bits added together. You've been kinda tunneling on Vulture since C1 (also vice versa). And then there's your vote patterns. And uh that green colour indicating village thing. Sigh okay that last one's a dumb reason.

11 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

If Vulture is, in your eyes, 'iffy,' why not a vote for him?

I might

11 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

Same with Tuatara. Why let him 'off the hook' to vote for someone you're not even providing suspicions about?

I think I sorta explained why:

16 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I will point out that there was no vote manip C1. Even though that was the cycle where it would have been most helpful for the elims, I should think, seeing as how close the vote was. Unless both the candidates were village. Cream Tuatara. Yeah. Okay.

 

11 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

If someone is about to confirm themselves village, why would you place a vote on them?

That edit didn't appear on my screen until I reloaded the page after I submited my post. I'm curious to know what it is you're willing to reveal.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Amethyst Scorpion

[Melon Dingo]

My vote patterns? I voted twice for Amber Vulture, and once to survive. What's so dodgy about that? I had suspicions about Amber, I still do, but I now have other suspicions that are a little more pressing. Like how Azure  Mouse has been seemingly directing the vote. Maybe directing is too severe a word, and influencing is better, but under his influence, only innocents have died. Plus we have all seen how effective a "trusted" elim can be.

Fair enough on Tuatara. It makes more sense now, but I would have phrased it differently in my first post.

As for my proof, there will be a reveal once Seonid has replied to my question. This reveal will be either the proof I'm offering, or a description of what I was thinking of doing, along with confirmation that Seonid said I couldn't. I can guarantee though, that if it comes to it, every other refugee on the ship can use it to confirm I am also a refugee. 

Edit: While we're at it... @Amber Vulture You also say things like "his posts are off," but offer little in the way of evidence. What about my posts are off?

Edited July 17, 2018 by Melon Dingo

[Indigo Weasel]

I've noticed a few votes on Azure Mouse, because he's been a driving force behind every lynch so far. I personally don't agree with that thought process. If I was an elim, I would be trying to avoid attention. I already have an Elim kill, and as long as a teammate isn't  getting lynched, then I would just play stupid.

The vote on Melon Dingo seems to only be based off of "Doesn't feel right" And I don't think this argument is very fair in Anonymous games, because we can't compare the posts to the original owner very easily. that being said. Something does feel off there. But before I put a lynch, I'm going to try to find something incriminating

the vote on Scorpion also doesn't seem to be well founded. It's just a retaliation vote. So I can't jump on that lynch either.

 

Looking at vote counts. If the vote manipulation is intrinsic, then D2, and D3, it narrows it down to Azure mouse, and Mauve Crocodile. Because those are the only 2 that voted on both candidates from both days that had vote manipulation. But then D1 counters that, because they also voted together that day, and there is no evident vote manipulation that day. That leads me to believe that the vote manipulation has got to be an action that someone submits. Or something that can be turned off by using an action.

At this point, I honestly have a mild elim read on everyone except myself, so I don't know where to go. I will try to do a bit of analysis on everyone, and see what I come up with. For now, I will put my vote on Mauve Crocodile Because he has also voted for everyone that Azure has voted for, and it seems more likely that an Elim would quietly follow than try to lead, and while Mauve hasn't exactly been quiet, they, up until now, have flown below my radar. I will also tag you @Mauve Crocodile so you have a chance to respond, and hopefully I have a chance to consider your response.

[Melon Dingo]

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I've noticed a few votes on Azure Mouse, because he's been a driving force behind every lynch so far. I personally don't agree with that thought process. If I was an elim, I would be trying to avoid attention. I already have an Elim kill, and as long as a teammate isn't  getting lynched, then I would just play stupid.

I do see your point here, but Mr Doctor proved in one of our more recent games that an active elim, trying to build up trust, can be a very effective tool. Given it's recent success, I could easily see a cocky elim trying to pull it off. I suppose this would be an easier call if we knew who was behind the mouse mask.

[Indigo Weasel]

1 minute ago, Melon Dingo said:

I do see your point here, but Mr Doctor proved in one of our more recent games that an active elim, trying to build up trust, can be a very effective tool. Given it's recent success, I could easily see a cocky elim trying to pull it off. I suppose this would be an easier call if we knew who was behind the mouse mask.

I'm pretty sure I do actually. What are rules about discussing who we think people are in thread? I would love to go into that, but not until I know the GM's answer, or if you know it then that works as well.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

4 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

I do see your point here, but Mr Doctor proved in one of our more recent games that an active elim, trying to build up trust, can be a very effective tool. Given it's recent success, I could easily see a cocky elim trying to pull it off. I suppose this would be an easier call if we knew who was behind the mouse mask.

Ha! It's amusing that you bring that up. I was just going over the possibility of Azure being Mr Doctor

Alright, Melon Dingo.

I'm starting to have this bad feeling that the elims already have everything figured out. Is this the last cycle? @Azure Mouse @Amber Vulture @Mauve Crocodile It's awfully quiet today. Azure, you were online not two hours ago. What's with the vote on yourself?  Are you trolling or smt?

Edited July 17, 2018 by Amethyst Scorpion

[Melon Dingo]

11 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I'm pretty sure I do actually. What are rules about discussing who we think people are in thread? I would love to go into that, but not until I know the GM's answer, or if you know it then that works as well.

I think it's ok, so long as we don't reveal ourselves, but honestly, not knowing is half of the fun, so I'd prefer it if you didn't tell us