Ok, here's a scenario, similar in form to the scenario in the initial post:
Let's say you have a safe locked behind a passcode. You commit to doing something different from what your electrum shadow shows unless it shows you inputting the correct code and opening the safe.
There are three possibilities for what could happen:
(1) You see one possibility where you open the safe. This one is disproven by WoB.
(2) You see multiple possibilities, all of which have you opening the safe.
(3) You see multiple possibilities, including ones in which you don't open the safe. If this is how allomantic electrum works, it wouldn't be any easier to open the safe compared to just brute forcing it.
I think it's probably (3). To see why I think this, you can analogize atium/electrum shadows to time travel. (1) would be like time travel where you can't change the past and everything is predetermined. (3) would be something like Primer, where things play out the same when you travel back in time unless you intervene. I don't know what (2) would be.
A fight between an allomancer burning atium and someone who isn't would be like receiving a message from the future telling you what your opponent did, which would allow you to account for and circumvent it.
A fight between two allomancers burning atium would be like a battle between two time travelers constantly trying to account for and circumvent the other's actions, which would generate many many timelines.
In the locked safe scenario, it would be like receiving a message from the future that you tried a passcode and whether it did or didn't work which would generate a thousand timelines, in only one of which you actually open the safe.
In the second scenario from the initial post, it would be like you getting a message from the future describing what you would've done. Since each timeline is slightly different from the last, it would accumulate and eventually you'd reach a timeline in which you didn't receive anything or decided to take back your commitment and that would be about what you would see your electrum shadow doing.
I think (3) has the advantage of more easily describing why atium shadows split compared to (1) or (2), in which splitting seems more like an extra case that has to be manually accounted for. Analogizing with time travel once again, this is because if you have consistent timelines, it's physically impossible to not do something you saw you did.