Magenta Albatross

Okay, uhm, wow? Hopefully I'll have time over the weekend to take a good look at how this lynch played out. That having been said, I think the name 'hidden garden' is interesting for Odium's faction. It suggests to me that Cultivation might be in that faction as well, and the group potentially having a cultivation-leaning win-con. That might be reading a bit too much in a faction-name, of course, but it feels meaningful to me.

There's one major benefit to lynching a suspected shard-holder once their status has been so explicitly shared. You deny Odium the chance to shatter them. So this is nothing personally aimed at you, Axolotl, but just me contributing to the 'keep shards intact' pool.

Tessa had had a very bad night. her information about the Next shard's movements had been a complete bust. Worse still was the paranoia about some assassins stalking her from the shadows. She knew that the prediction from the previous day could have meant any number of things, but it still bothered her a lot. The Divinatory technique, if it worked at all, was always vague and imprecise on details. So why then did she feel so certain about this one detail? Sleep had been slow to come and fitful, with dreams of armed shadows and misshapen assailants chasing her. The sound of her alarm came as a relief. The night hadn't been as bloody as the previous one,though one death was still one too many. Vahal had also once again included a request for a prediction, though this time he hadn't specified a particular topic. "I might as well get rid of the damnation Paranoia and make a prediction about myself. It'll just come up with a nice and prosperous future, and I can stop worrying." She put down the wheel of fortune card, and started shuffling the deck. "First card is the empress. Action, initiative, long days spend doing clandestine work. Yep, that sounds like my current life. It's followed by three of cups. That's good, Apparently the only things slowing me down will be an excess of success, maybe even a promotion." "Next up is the six of staves. Yeah, overall victory is what I'm aiming for, of course. So far so good. And it's followed by the Hanged man." As usual she almost added. The Hanged came up regularly in this position when she was divining about herself. It represented prophecy and divination as her gifts to achieve her goal with. "In the past is The Tower. It represents things like misery and distress. It could be referring to the time of Autonomy's reign, or my recent worries about that killer. Probably the second one, as this card also represents deception." "Next is the Demon. Extraordinary effort and violence are in my immediate future. Could represent my fate as well." She shrugged. Though that card could eb taken as a bad Omen, it didn't say anything bad would happen to her, and violence in the future was to be expected with the war going on. "Alright, the final four. First is queen of cups to represents my stance towards the future. Honesty, wisdom, intelligence. It might be an admonishment to keep my head on right for what is to come. Next is the world, singifiying a life of constant travel and success. I've traveled most of the cosmere, and things have been going well, so that works. The third is the ten of pentacles. Wealth, more wealth and family. Not what's going to come, but what I am hoping for. Last one is five of staves. Competition and struggle int he search for success. Could also indicate.." She stopped herself there. Communication with Vahal was supposedly secure, but this card spelled out the finer details of The Plan. "Let's leave it at that. No big predictions about dramatic events. Just struggles and the hope for success." She turned off the recording and stashed away the cards. She felt better. The closes thing to a warning of oncoming troubles was the Demon card, and if the divination wanted to warn her of her oncoming death, there was a far less ambiguous card for that. As she prepared to leave for the night's business, she noticed something sticking out from under her bed. It was a single card from her deck. it'd probably fallen there while she was shuffling it. It was lying face down so she couldn't see which card it was. She felt a surge of apprehension, but quickly suppressed it as she picked up the card and put ti with the rest, without checking which card it was.

By that logic, wouldn't it be better to threathen someone else with the lynch that hasn't told us stuff yet? (I'm not really in favor of using the lynch like that, btw). There's no way Weasel can corroborate those claims unless the shards claim, and that's unlikely to happen.

Because he had the poor form of not dying to the lynch D2, and probably his team hasn't lost anyone yet.

Hmm, only one kill this cycle. Either some people got lucky with their defenses,or not all kill-capable factions have a win-con requiring indiscriminate killing. There's 3 shards that generate targeted kills, being Ruin, Odium and Dominion (through creating Dakhor monks). In the previous cycle there was an attack by Odium, and at least one of the other two. However, Tuatara claimed in the Scadrial doc to have been attacked and defended, so it that's true all 3 kill-capable shards attacked. This cycle, only one person has been attacked, suggesting that (unless some groups have been very lucky with their defenses) only one shard got a blow in. That suggests that at most one of these Shards has a win-con involving indiscriminate killing. At a guess, I'd say it's Dominion. Odium got one pinpoint strike in against a Shard, though that might have been luck, and showed restraint during N1, so at a guess I'd say they're only after shards. Dominion needed proxies to do the killing, which might have left them out of position N1. Ruin, if weasel is to be believed, is in the same faction as Devotion, and weasels actions so far haven't really suggested that he's in a faction that'd like to see lots of people die.

Hmmm, another charge added to a planet. I wonder if someone out there has a planet-creation goal. It'd make sense to not add more than 2 charges to Yolen, given that it needs 4 shards to contribute, and suggest that there's currently only one shard making stuff.

I considered that, but if the types of wincons we had was any indication, no group would have a wincon that was purely dependent on the abilities of one of their shards. If the above was their wincon, it'd be impossible to win the moment Devotion died. Then again, their win-con could be something along the lines of 'protect X people from dying', in which case they've got at least 1 down, and if I'm right they're already on 2. In that case giving them an easy third would be a bad idea. Indigo weasel.

@Emerald Falcon, am I right that we can conclude you're on the same team as one of the two that died? Anyway, I'm going to vote Indigo. I've got a little theory going that, if correct, pretty much guarantees that he's been protected by Devotion again. Knowing for sure would be nice and I'm not in as much of a hurry to get people killed that I'm not willing to risk another dud lynch to figure out if my guess for Devotion's identity is correct.

Ivory actually mentioned the possibility of vulture specifically being Autonomy in passing, but it wasn't really discussed in-depth (he was going over the movement of people, and stating that Vulture left, unless they where Autonomy, who'd just left an aspect). I'm still a bit behind on everything that happens, but I'd be a bit cautious about trying to lynch weasel again. I give it about 50/50 odds that he got protected twice in a row, as he'd be an obvious target for a relynching, but also an obvious target for an attack. He was also on scadrial, however, so if Devotion was there weasel could have protected them. I agree that Falcon's suggestion for the lynch makes some sense, but I disagree about the lack of elims. One of the options for our faction's win-con involved a lot of killing (we didn't pick that one, as we hare hoping/aiming for a happy ending to the last shard game), so I can't rule out the existence of a faction that, for all intents and purposes, would be functioning as an elimination faction. I'll place a vote later today, but I'm not feeling a weasel lynch right now. *** Tessa woke up late in the afternoon as a bundle of sunlight fell on her face through the curtains before the window in her hotel room. Her whole body hurt. She reached out for the big unsealed goldmind she'd bought, but then thought better of it. She'd already used a big chunk of its charge last night for just staying alive, and though her muscles ached, it was nothing life-threatening. "Well, at least it didn't outright say 'no' after it failed to spread my constituent atoms over a couple of square kilometers of city." She muttered to herself. She'd had some success tracking down one of the Shards, but it seemed her conversational skills still needed some work. The seed of doubt had been planted though, so it was a start at least. With a groan she sat up, and opened her communicator. What she saw made the small victory from the previous day seem altogether insignificant. The war had started properly, and one Shard had already been rendered broken. That that shard was Autonomy did little to lift her mood. The other victim wasn't completely unknown to her either. Vahal had flagged that piece of news with a small message. "You got pretty close yesterday. How about you give predicting something slightly more specific a go this time?" She sighed. Vahal wasn't wrong. Her 'prediction', if that was what it was, seemed to match up fairly well with the result from weasel's antics. After stretching once more she got the deck of cards out of her pack and started shuffling, after fishing out the star to represent the dead steelrunner. "So, the first card. Seven of swords. Yeah, his plans failed alright. On the other hand, the one that did him in might not get away with it either because he left some clue, or killing the steelrunner wasn't his intent, but instead the result of a quarrel. Let's focus on the killing and killer here." She pulled out the next card. "The hermit. Treason, corruption, all that stuff. Was the killer some the steelrunner trusted, or does the killer need to fear those on his own side the most?" "Next is the five of wands. Was this a contract-killing, with the killer expecting payment? Or maybe they hope to profit from it in some other way. Maybe the Steelrunner was in direct competition for the same treasure." "Next is the king of swords. The killer is or represents some kind of lawful authority. Or alternatively they're just plain evil. Pretty specific in one reading, pretty enteric in the other one. Ugh, couldn't those dragons have come up with something that didn't rely so much on interpretation?" "Next is the four of wands. Apparently the killer used to live a peaceful and prosperous life. One of Autonomy's, maybe? Or just any random person that didn't chafe under their commandments and made the best of life. Wonder what brought them into this war." She turned up the next card. "The wheel of fortune. Luck will play a big role in the killer's coming days. Hmmm, I hope that isn't indicative of them coming into conflict with me." She laid out the final four in quick succession. "Page of swords. The killer is part of some kind of secret service or other spy organisation, or is at least versed in spycraft and using it for their goals. Next is the two of cups. The killer is surrounded by friends or close family, maybe even a loved one. Ace of Cups. They're working towards their own happiness and joy, and probably that of those close to them. They're unlikely to be swayed from their path. And finally, six of pentacles." She picked up the last card. "That makes no sense. There's gifts and rewards in the killer's future? She thought back to the musty tomes and manuals she'd read and studied the card. It showed a figure, a merchant of some sort giving alms to the poor. However, it showed some other things as well, one of which being a set of scales. "Right, apparently this card also indicates vigilance and seizing the moment. Seems the stars are aligning for the killer, as long as they keep their guard up." She stopped drawing on her luck, and stopped the recording she was making and sent it to Vahal. She didn't immediately put the cards away though. The presence of the Wheel of Fortune card as indicative of the killer's immediate future circumstances unnerved her, as she'd always used that card to signify herself. After several minutes of contemplating the cards she tossed them back into her bag with a disgusted shake of her had. It was all chance and useless interpretation anyway, there was no way this method could actually predict the future. She packed up her bags and checked out to move to a different hotel. Just to be certain, and not make things too easy for any would-be assassins.

If they've got Odium, I'd guess their goal is to keep people from dying for a certain amount of time (explaining Weasels big show, and Odium would be the tool they need to shut down Ruin and similar kill-granting shards). Alternatively, if instead they need to save a certain number of people I'd expect them to not have a killing Shard,a s that'd make things way too easy for them to complete that win-con. That's my initial thoughts for now. Unfortunately, I've been very busy today, and will be very busy tomorrow, so I won't be super active for the rest of this cycle or the first half of the next day-cycle.

Hmmm, I really liked Lion's theory about Weasel's behavior. The big light show he's putting up definitely suggest that he's either angling to get lynched, or somehow gets something from all this attention. What I don't think is the case is that weasel has a win-con that'll immediately trigger on his being lynched, as that'be too easy for him to achieve, and too hard for everyone else to avoid, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's in a faction with Ambition or Endowment. Alternatively, he's not trying to get lynched at all, but is instead just racing around setting off fireworks to see how people react. He's certainly turned himself into a point of discussion. Either way, I'd actually love to see what happens if he does get lynched, but I'm going to refrain from moving my vote to him until I'm singing off for the cycle in 1-2 hours at least, to see how things look then. As for who you should vote for? I'd say Scarlet, but I suspect he's one of the <10 players that are part of your faction. Next would be flamingo, for more flimsy reasoning behind their vote than most, but if I'd had to guess I'd say they where part of your faction as well and the actual reason for their vote was 'Albatross is voting on a faction-mate of mine'. Honestly, At this point I think the most interesting result to see would be Indigo weasel. He's attracting a lot of attention, and seeing how that works out might tell us a thing or two about what he was up to in the first place (for example, him immediately being returned or shadified would be indicative of both what shard is in his faction, and what their goal might be).

Regarding Axolotl, I'd say it could quite possibly be that he has some kind of world-hop scan related to the shards, because he explicitly mentioned that Odium and Devotion hadn't world-hopped. If he does, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that he's a Neutral with a special role and a win-con that's in some way related to doing things with or to the Shards.

So you still believe Toucan was lying? Anyway, I really don't get why people are so hung up on Toucan maybe lying about being Neutral tot he point that they consider it immediately lynchworthy, so could you explain what about Toucan's claim, if it had been a lie marks him as the enemy, because I really don't get it?

You are allowed to say who you think someone is iirc, they just can't confirm it, but I'd check with the GM's just to be sure (@Seonid/ @A Joe in the Bush)

It obviously doesn't seem odd to me. I don't think Octopus has really explained themselves in a way I thought was satisfactory (Saying any more than the absolute minimum to get my way is wasted tipping space doesn't really fly in SE, I think). As I've brought up before, he seemed to be pushing really hard for a lynch on Toucan for the crime of maybe lying, even while waiting on an explanation from the DM's.* At least some of the others suspicious of Toucan where providing reasoning why something fishy was going on, beyond 'the rules say this', even though "there's always another secret" was rather prominent as a thread-tag, and this game already has plenty of hidden stuff. I'm starting to become more suspicious of weasel though, with the way they're hopping around it feels like they're going for some sort of safety-in-confusion/chaos play? I'll chip in my question, at any rate. @Indigo Weasel, does your win-con require the death of characters in this game? edit: *and in particular, they where stating that in a way that tied to make it obvious that lynching them was a good plan, without really going into in-depth arguments. For example: He immediately goes from 'he might be lying about being Neutral' to 'therefore they can't be worked with and must be lynched', which seems like a pretty big stretch to me.

That seems more like drumming up support for a quick and 'safe' lynch, than trying to get people to discuss the possibility of Toucan possibly being Neutral. That's also the reason I voted for you, instead of for example Quartz Zebra, who was actually going into details on why Toucan might or might not actually be a Neutral.

Hmmm, I expressed that theory in the Scadrial Doc, but I would note that Odium has apparently refrained from killing this cycle, which seems to run counter to a win-con that requires a lot of killing. One cycle hardly makes a pattern, but it's something to keep in mind. And I might as well put in a vote of my own to get discussions started. For starters, I propose we lynch Scarlet Octopus for the way they pushed for the lynch on Sunburst Toucan when they claimed Neutral. Irrespective of the claim being believable or not, it struck me as very noteworthy that he immediately tried to drum up support for a lynch because of what was at worst a lie. This makes me suspect that he's directly interested in the elimination of either lots of players, or something along the line of 'wipe out X unique factions' or 'have X players from unique factions among the dead'.

Tessa returned to her hotel room, after having spend most of the night scouting out the city, determining which worldhoppers of note and other powers where among the new arrival and generally attracting lots of bad luck. She'd have another busy night ahead of her, but for now she'd be getting some well-deserved rest. The moment she closed here eyes, her communicator started beeping. "Ugh, yeah, who's this? she mumbled groggily." "Hey Tessa, I hope I didn't wake you up." Vahal's voice sounded cheery as ever. "Do you remember that experiment we did a couple of years back? If possible, I'd like to do a rerun over the coming couple of days." Tessa sat up again. "What experi.. oh, that one."There was really only one experiment he'd be calling her for. "Didn't we conclude that the theory was bogus and that this was not a valid way of predicting the future, even with manipulation of Fortune?" "To be precise, we determined that we couldn't tell for certain if it was possible to predict the future, but those experiments happened under strictly controlled circumstances. I'm curious as to the results of a field test during these turbulent times. Humour me for today at least, please?" "Ugh, alright. I assume you made sure a deck was added to my pack before I left?" Tessa rifled through her gear and found a palm-sized box at the bottom of her pack. "Alright, I've got it. Anything in particular you want me to try to divine?" "How about the general opening stages of the shardic conflict, so just the coming day or two. Is that precise enough?" "Maybe? Who knows." She started going through the deck of Cards. "Chariot represents war and conflict, So that'd be a good starting place." She shuffled the rest of teh deck, and started tapping into fortune. "Well, that's an unsurprising start." The first card had been the two of Swords. "There'll be several different allied groups. Not really a big new revelation. The next card was the five of swords. "Seems there's going to be some betrayal and backstabbing, or at least some dishonourable acts." She turned over the next two cards. The page and five of cups. "Apparently we're moving towards a time of meditation and reflection, but all we've got right now is the left -overs of previous events. I don't know about peace ore reflection, but this is all coming from the previous wars, so I suppose that fits." "Now, these next two make no sense whatsoever. Six of cups and king of pentacles. Some kind of declaration or confession in the past, and a single valorous and/or intelligent person of influence being of direct influence in the coming conflict maybe? "Okay, I'm down to the final four. Page of swords first, suggesting that this conflict will be fought in the shadows, rather than openly. Suits me fine, I suppose. Next is Knight of pentacles. Suggests that there's competent people involved in this stuff, I suppose. Next is the seven of pentacles. Another conflict card, though it usually denotes economical conflict." She picked up the last card. Supposedly that one was the most important, containing the actual future predictions. "Last one is page of wands. Based on the rest of this I'd say we're going to get a fairly major revelation, but probably late in the day after a period of conflict. The revelation will be made in contradiction to some earlier agreements, and it'll spark a period of relative peace as people mull over the implications." She stopped tapping luck. "I'm pretty sure I could read these cards in a couple of dozen different, more non-sensical ways as well. I doubt that this will prove of any use." "We'll see, won't we?" Vahal spoke. "This method has been discussed and detailed in some fairly old documents, though we can't replicate their exact method for reaching out to Fortune. Anyway, I thank you for your time and effort. Have a good day's sleep, Agent DeLoren." *** For those curious, I do own a tarot deck and actually did lay down the spread I talked about above. Let's see if this stuff works, shall we?

It comes with risks though. Sure, you could go to Yolen to get a particular power you could get elsewhere, but that'd place you on the same world as people picking up the voidbringer role. Personally, I'd not go there unless there was some kind of benefit I really needed that I could only get there.

Hmmm, I'd really thought I'd picked a more original destination to hop to. Ah well. *** Tessa took a deep breath of the Scadrian air. It tasted different to any other world she'd ever visited, with just he barest hint of wood-smoke wafting on the breeze. It'd been a while since she'd been home. She hadn't really been feeling homesick, as she'd been doing important work all around the Cosmere. But it still felt right to be here now, especially during the endgame. Vahal had come up with an extremely ambitious plan, but it could end these conflicts forever. Maybe 'end' was too strong a word. 'Limit in scope and reach so that casualties are kept negligible and innocent civilians are not caught in the crossfire' was how he'd put it. And the most beautiful thing was that it didn't require them to beat anyone. They didn't need to remove any pieces from the board, merely prove their capabilities to restrict the actions of the key pieces. Containment had been tried and failed before, of course, but this time would be different. Nos ticking shards in containers, just convincing them to start playing by mortal rules. "Well then, time to go say 'no' to a Shard." she muttered to herself as she passed from empty fields into Scadrials largest city.

"...and finally, we've passed on our findings to SilverPoly. The ball's firmly in their court now regarding how much technology'll be opened up to everyone." Vahal's voice echoed through the room as he finished the debriefing. "You've all done well, but the resurgence of at least four and potentially more shards, including the ever-dangerous Ruin, means we can't rest and reap the rewards just yet. You'll all receive our updated mission statement and your personal instructions before the day is done. Are there any questions?" "Um.. We've all been very focused on Autonomy, but they where helped into power by Survival. Shouldn't we be looking into them as well?" Michael, another Agent sitting to Tessa's left spoke up. "An excellent question." Vahal nodded. "However, Survival has always proven to prioritize its own well-being over all other concerns. This led to his initial alliance with Autonomy. since we've confirmed that most of Autonomy's aspects have in fact been killed, it stands to reason that Survival has retreated out of whatever arrangement they had to protect itself from those hunting autonomy. Certainly, we've seen little sign of interference by Survival, though recent rumors suggest that it might have passed to a new vessel. We'll of coure be following up on those and try to bring them on board with our own endeavors if possible." Vahal left a moment of silence for more questions. "If that's all, then we're done for the day. I'll be briefing all of you in the morning on our upcoming projects, barring any major disasters." *** So, there's something that I'm curious about. My faction has been given the choice of several possible win-cons. Is this something unique to us, or is this an option available to most/all factions?

Tessa DeLoren hurried through the dark streets, Darkside's crowds parting around her without noticing the slight woman. "We just got word from Scadrial. Autonomy's aspect there has gone missing as well. Any news on your end yet?" the voice in her ear asked. "Nothing yet, but the Sand Lord's is remarkably reclusive. I've got a pretty good lead on his current name identity and home though. Shouldn't take more than half an hour." she responded. Autonomy's aspects had ruled from the shadows for the past centuries. Maybe 'ruled' was too strong a word. They let the various governments do as they wanted, as long as inter-world cooperation was never considered, and power on any given Shardworld was never consolidated in the hands of too few. Yet when their edicts where crossed, Autonomy's aspect's reaction was strong, and though they always gave the illusion of choice, none dared oppose the shard after the other Shards had retreated before their power. All that had changed two years ago, or maybe far longer ago, they weren't really sure. One despot had risen on Roshar, and crossed Autonomy's arbitrary line with impunity. And nothing happened. Her group had started investigating soon after, and confirmed that Roshar's Aspect had disappeared. They'd started looking elsewhere after that. Nalthis, New Silverlight, Autonomy's grip on had been loosened everywhere. Or thorn away. Tessa arrived at the unassuming home that her contact had claimed was currently occupied by the Sand Lord. The crowds had thinned, which suited her just fine. she ducked in an alleyway, and once she was out of sight she quickly hooped over the fence surrounding the house's garden. She landed in a garden filled with Darkside's peculiar bioluminescent plants and held still, scanning her surroundings. All was quiet in the small garden, and the only movement was a cat strolling lazily through the garden. After several minutes of watching her surroundings, Tessa stalked towards the house's door. She took a set of lock-picks out of her pocket and set to work on the old and rusty lock. She quickly gave up her attempts to pick it, as the thing was rusted entirely shut, and no amount of finesse would open it. She had several toys with her that could open a lock like that, but all of those where quite.s. foreign, and the aspects disapproved of taking tech like this to worlds that couldn't match it. She looked over the door again and noted that it looked quite old and worn in its entirety. That was unusual for this neighborhood, but maybe an immortal aspect didn't care that much for maintaining their home. She braced her shoulder against the door, and gave it a careful shove. To her surprise, the door immediately gave in, and with a groan of splintering wood and crash of breaking glass collapsed to the ground. Tessa froze like a deer caught in the headlights of an oncoming vehicle, but all was silent again, and no sign came from the house that anyone was there to notice, so after a moment to gather her composure she headed in. The smell of mold hit her the moment she crossed the threshold. The house was in an extreme state of disrepair, with pain basically falling from the walls, and mold growing on patches on anything that could feed it. 'This isn't right...' she muttered. Her information was reliable, and the Sand Lord hadn't been living here long enough to allow the place to fall into this kind of disrepair. She quickly checked the small home, but saw nothing, and the only sound she heard was the crunch of her boots on the ash on the ground. Curious, she took a closer look, and saw that it was not ash, but black sand. Her thoughts where interrupted before she could process this find by a loud crash, as one of the roofs supporting beams collapsed in on itself, followed shortly by a large section of roof. The entire house was collapsing around her! She quickly grabbed a small crystal from her belt, and threw it on the ground, shattering it. She felt the shock of released investiture, and willed herself through. In a fraction of a second, she'd transferred to the cognitive realm, saved from the collapsing building. Not safe though, as the ghostly version of the house she was now standing in was covered in black, tar-like investiture. She didn't need to ask whose investiture it was, and didn't stick around to find out, rushing out of the house as fast as her legs could carry her. To her relief, the stain of Ruin stretched no further than the one house. The planet was safe, for now. "Vahal." she spoke in her earpiece which had been cleverly disguised as a piece of Darkside Jewelry. "The Sand Lord is gone. And it seems that Ruin, at the very least, is back on the board." *** edit: @Seonid, I noticed that there's no rules for what happens when a vessel that did not invest and is the last person in their faction dies. What would happen in that case?

@Orlok Tsubodai, is there a voting minimum? If not, Jasnah's point about self-preservation is quite valid, and Venli's unexplained vote has the potential to ostracize me. So, it seems entirely fair to return the favor. Furthermore, by process of elimination, the Parshendi or Navani/Dalinar are the only remaining possible groups to have tried to murder me. And I am reasonably sure that Navani and I have win conditions that coexist well for the time being. So, I see little reason not to vote for Venli.

Ah. Understandable. This game is really complicated. Jasnah I have to go now but I will follow this up morelater.