Oxblood Beagle

@Mint Heron Us: Spiraling into whether or not Dingo makes the most sense as Elim Meanwhile: He might just straight up be getting shot (was Octo's latest post)

@Mint Heron Ahh, I thought you meant Dingo ever alluding to the presence of a Smoker after having checked Crocodile and they came up Smoked. I tried to look into it and there actually wasn't much to see, since they hardly made any assumptions/guesses regarding the distro. Only thing I found was some minor D3 stuff: - In the first quote, there's a soft allusion to an E!Coinshot or E!Lurcher, but never a mention of an E!Smoker (or E!Mistborn). This was before the claim - In the second quote, there's a recap of what exists plus their scan on Zebra, but not a mention of the possibility of E!Smoker or E!Mistborn In this same post, they also have a v!read on Kangaroo for odd reasons

https://imgflip.com/i/ah89qt I am also not so brave haha. By not mentioning them, do you mean during D2?

It's just been that addictive anyways, I feel like I don't have any new ideas anymore for tonight, so I might just check the thread again after rollover (lie)

Lmaooo that's why you shouldn't be dying tonight need someone around who's just a tad little obsessed with this game and has a hard time putting it off

It's possible they are actually e!Lurcher, then saw that there's way too many Lurcher claims and chose to fakeclaim Seeker. Then again, in this world, it's either Zebra isn't elim or for some reason, they have 2 Lurchers

Last time they posted was to self-pres to Octo back when it was still between Zebra/Octo/Toucan

And then Dingo quoted Meerkat's post and backed it up. I did find it a little odd that Dingo just willingly accepted that there can be 2 V!Seekers, like is that more common an occurrence than I am thinking of? At least in the other AG games I had looked at, a few of them didn't even have a single V!Seeker and usually, balance-wise, you never really put 2 alignment checkers on the village team (that's even with consideration of a Smoker, who can only cover so much)

At least from Meerkat's perspective, he did suggest that Lurcher is the easiest to fakeclaim

Neither Axolotl nor Zebra can protect Heron due to double targeting rules, so it's basically @Indigo Weasel to ask for this. I can also redirect to protecting him if we don't get confirmation from Weasel

True, if they die as villagers, then they both resolve themselves and also the person that they are vouching for Fair point. On there being 2 Seekers, it does make me feel like it's a 6 elim team with another Kandra and a Lurcher. I feel like 2 Seekers is a bit much for just 1 Kandra and Seeker is an elim role that I feel diminishes in value the longer the game goes (since there will come a point where people will just outright reveal their roles; ex: D3). Lurcher makes the most sense in a 2 V!Coinshot world and 4 V!Mistborn where very lucky rolls could lead to all of them being Coinshot early on Agreed, hence why I'm also not trying to think through it deeply until the next day begins because the results of this night should be quite informative that it would be a lot easier to make the best decision for tomorrow

I think it might have gone unnoticed, but I did say earlier that I rolled Lurcher this cycle, so I think Axolotl can protect someone else

True, and I think what we know of the elim team is that they were to some extent being risk-averse by trying to prevent both Kangaroo and Meerkat to be viable counterwagons, so I feel that this would be inconsistent with their prior behavior Acknowledged, but if I'm remembering correctly, at this point only Axolotl, Toucan, Zebra, Lion, and Chameleon have not ended a day voting a flipped elim. Toucan and Zebra only have a chance of being elims if the person vouching them is also elim, and I can't see how Axolotl is elim based on the elim's behavior at that point. So I guess if it's not any of the three lower in my PoE, then there has to be a weaker point somewhere. Then again, I have to agree that he was one of the main people who helped the push on Meerkat take off. And also, thinking of D2, I think it might only make sense that he's elim if Octo is also elim

I guess I always like to fall back on D1 since that has been quite an informative day. Albatross is my green check, so that's 100% never to be exe'd (unless we have some weird hidden Godfather role or something) Knowing that Kangaroo is Seeker, I wouldn't be initially looking at Gecko, Dragonfly, Weasel, and you. I think the only world that that makes sense is where it really counts on Crocodile being able to Riot before rollover, and that's such a risky move to make when losing Kangaroo would lead to the village potentially gaining the advantage (since the elims do not have any certainty of their Kandra being the higher generation) I don't think Axolotl makes sense to be elim because there's a contradiction in that Croc was pushing them while neither Iguana nor Kangaroo committed to taking them out. I don't think Iguana really would have started a counterwagon on a fellow elim after moving off Kangaroo since Elephant was another option right there to vote. Flamingo and Dingo are both center pieces here. Flamingo is vouching for Toucan while Dingo is vouching for Zebra. Both Toucan and Zebra didn't have strong D1s, so they're only ever elim in a world where the person vouching them is also elim. Between Flamingo and Dingo, if someone has to be an elim, I think it'd make more sense for it behavior-wise to be Dingo Rhinoceros also had a not very strong D1, but has been better at least in the following days. So, I guess that leaves me at the same PoE of <Rhinoceros, Dingo, Chameleon, and Lion>. That's probably in the order of how I would approach it, where Lion is the person I want to look at most @Onyx Flamingo What was your generation number as kandra again?

True, that is certainly a world. It would require some insane-level of acting from Flamingo and I think their actions, at least in end of D2 plus how they went about approaching their strong read on Toucan, makes me think that they are village

I mean, it would be better if the coinshots also didn't end up shooting village, which I think might happen since I don't think we have super a consensus on who among who's left is elim

It'd be fun if we ended this game with as few villagers dead probably something that I haven't really seen before

Leaning towards No Kill

Supporting this. Even if Dingo is smoked, that in itself would be informative

True, it makes sense he moved both Kanga and Meerkat up as both have the roles that are the most dangerous to be stolen by v!Kandras. Yeah, interesting that Gecko is on there twice and agree, Dingo did make Iguana a viable third counterwagon by the end of D2, so that does give me pause I guess if there has to be an e!CS, I'm probably leaning towards it being Cham/Lion and the elims just got unlucky that the one who got it didn't show up for the first 2 cycles

@Mint Heron Every time, I like going back to Croc's reads list post and see how the flip offers a new puzzle piece that makes their actions make sense. And now, I guess it makes sense that Croc would move off Meerkat here because like Kangaroo, it's the same Seeker role that they didn't want to lose to Village Kandras. It does make me feel more inclined to think Axolotl is village because Croc wasn't bussing either teammate D1 (Meerkat/Kangaroo) and we also know that Elephant is town, so that could have perfectly been a different wagon to pivot to if he had wanted to protect Axolotl as well

A bit random, but @Plum Rhinoceros poke-distancing strikes again, with 3/4 elims voting an elim on their first vote (this time, Croc voting Meerkat added)

Yup. Also, I'm Lurcher this cycle, so I can protect one of those

Maybe it's just the paranoia speaking, but I feel like it's not entirely unlikely if the play is for both Meerkat and Dingo to fakeclaim Seeker, so that we're inclined to think that there has to be a v!Seeker I still kind of find it unlikely Axo is e! because Iguana just didn't vote Axo and instead started a CW without really making a strong push for it. But maybe they were counting on Crocodile to Riot it away

True, I guess it is weird though that it isn't either Smoker or Lurcher, since if it's a 5-elim team, that means they don't have counterplay for the Coinshots or counterplay for Seekers