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Sunburst Toucan

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  1. Sunburst Toucan
    I'm voting on Mouse. I've been considering between Axolotl and mouse, but Axolotl's breakdown in the earlier days is not the kind I'd expect from someone that had a group of trusted allies to talk to and discuss with. I've said before that I'm seeing Mouse as being in a similar situation to Weasel, and that's still true. However, we need to get to the bottom of what happened yesterday, or that's something that will continue being a distraction.
  2. Sunburst Toucan
    "Some good points have been made against Scorpion, but there's one thing that stands against it, and suggests that he is either innocent, or a co-conspirator of Nolan. Remember that yesterday there where three people up for the lynch. If we assume that only the mouse vote was a soothing done by the muyrderers, and that Scorpion is a murderer, then they, as far as they knew, effectively increased the chance of scorpion getting lynched by removing mouse from the vote, and that doesn't make sense to me. The only situation in which it would make sense is if they knew that Nolan would be using his powers t remove a vote from Scorpion." "No, if there was a murderer among those up for the lynch yesterday, it has got to be mouse. Using a power to frame a villager is all well and good, but using it to save a team-mate is better. Of course, there's also the possibility of Nolan and Scorpion being co-conspirators, but int hat case we're probably done for anyway, as the murderers likely have enough vote manipulation to end us today."
  3. Sunburst Toucan
    "Well, I can share my opinions. Zebra is relatively easy, as he hasn't spoken at all since the last time I looked at him in detail. A lot of the effort he's put into this game made me fairly certain that he is village. The summaries he provided at the end of the third day in particular seem like the kind of effort a villager intend on solving the situation would go to, and I don't think a murderer trying to appear innocent would even realize the possibility of going to such extreme lengths to provide everyone with information and get people voting." "I'm less certain about Axolotl. I've said before that his voting system looked like a smoke-screen for him to hide behind to me, but at the same time it seems like this would be way too obvious an action for a murderer to take. Then again, that might be what he wanted us to think in the first place. I'd prefer it if he where to come out and lay out the inner workings of the system soon, because otherwise I'll vote for him today( @Violet Axolotl). There's also his suggestion that the windrunner protect you, Nolan. The suggestion makes sense, but he might have been trying to get the windrunner to protect someone specific so that the murderers wouldn't have to worry about that." "Crocodile hasn't said all that much, considering the length of time this has been going on. He hasn't provided any reads yet on people that he wasn't voting on at the time, and I don't think he's ever initiated a lynch attempt, successful or otherwise. His response to your accusation of him from yesterday felt genuine though. As far as I'm considered, he's in the same boat as weasel was, being someone that hasn't done much to prove his innocence, but hasn't really done anything to appear guilty either." "Now, I would like to mention that I haven't taken an in-depth look at the votes yet, and those might hold further clues. If I remember correctly part of your argument of crocodile was that he was one of the people who voted on Flamingo a while back that hasn't been cleared yet, which might be somewhat indicative. As I said before though, I don't think the murderers are trying to hide among the quiet villagers, because if they are, the targets they've picked don't make too much sense to me."
  4. Sunburst Toucan
    "I'm not asking you to reveal the identity of the elsecaller unless you actively suspect them. However, I did want to make sure you'd checked them again, as you seem to be the only person to know who it is, so it would fall to you to use that information to keep an eye on them."
  5. Sunburst Toucan
    "As I've said before, the victims the murderers have been picking suggest that very few of them are actually laying low. If they were hiding among the more quieter villagers it should make sense for them to focus on the more active villagers, instead of thinning out the category of players they are hiding in. Unfortunately, I haven't seen anything to suspect the more active villagers, but with the death of Falcon I also have very few suspicions left among the less talkative." Vanna sighed. She could see pattern pointing one way, but that didn't help anyone much of she couldn't give reasons to suspect the people the pattern pointed at. "Nolan(@Ivory Dragonfly), I'm almost tempted to take you up on the offer of lynching you, as I have trouble understanding why you're still alive. The less villagers left, the more important a bondsmith becomes. There was the risk of you having been protected, of course, but I have seen no signs of a village windrunner, so it seemed like it would have been a worthwhile gamble to me. Did you do anything when we could still send messages around that would make the murderers more inclined to believe you actually had protection?" Vanna shrugged apologetically. "I don't actually have any other reason to suspect you, and untill I do I won't vote against you, but I'm running out of ideas here." She was just about to turn away when an errant thought struck her. "Back during the lynch of weasel you revealed that someone had claimed to be an elsecaller to you. You'd also said that if weasel proved to be village, you'd take another look at this person. Have you done so by now? Am I also correct in assuming that the elsecaller is the mysterious person whose role you weren't planning on revealing?"
  6. Sunburst Toucan
    Vanna had started paining again. She knew it was a waste of water, but she no longer cared. She had enough water for about another week, but she didn't expect to live that long. Some villagers predicted that it would end tomorrow. The next highstorm was two days from now, and that would be the only good opportunity she'd get to sneak through enemy lines. Even then, a highstorm could kill her as easily as a voidbringer, so she wasn't planning more than three days ahead. Before she left, she wanted to finish the painting. It scared her, but the thought of leaving if unfinished bothered her even more. So she painted, and the blank area of the canvas was slowly covered in red and black, as shadow slowly consumed the area that could have held the light of hope.
  7. Sunburst Toucan
    vote tally, for those who lost track: Vulture(3): Dragonfly, scorpion, kangaroo Scoprion(4): toucan, vulture, elephant, mouse mouse(4): ostrich, falcon, axolotl, heron toucan(2): pearl, alabross kharsis, what in Storms name are you babbling about? Wilson's herald? Kas' Disciples? Can you please explain this to me?
  8. Sunburst Toucan
    Since he accidentally revealed himself, I can say that it is indeed somewhat typical, and not particularly alignment indicative. "Hmmm, I think someone mentioned a while ago that mouse had a lot of village reads, and provided a couple of reasons for why that might be suspicious. 'Vanna shrugged. "I don't know who said that, though, so take this with a pinch of salt."
  9. Sunburst Toucan
    "And this new strategy would be to turn of our minds and just follow your lead?" Vanna manged to keep her voice down, but only just. "I'm sorry, but if you had a strategy that relied on us being willing to gamble on trusting you, you should have tried it a couple of days ago."
  10. Sunburst Toucan
    Vanna had gotten her notes out again after answering the questions. She felt reasonably certain about her accusation of Scorpion, but there was no reason not to look over Mouse and Vulture. Vulture Hermux Tantamoq (Mouse)
  11. Sunburst Toucan
    "I am still suspicious of Albatross, but Nolan did make a good point about me focusing on him to the exclusion of everyone else." That had been a bit of a wake-up call for Vanna. She'd tried to give everyone an objective examination, but it seemed she hadn't been nearly as objective with Albatross as she should have been. "There was one thing stood out in his most recent accusation of me that makes me less suspicious of Albatross, and that is that it seemed to have been conceived from the conviction that Albatross was innocent. I don't think a murderer is capable of coming up with the theory that I was part of a multi-turn conspiracy to accuse and lynch him, as that requires you to constantly be reasoning from the point of innocence. Maybe Albatross is a murderer who is really good in immersing himself in the persona of an innocent villager, but I'm not sure." Edit: "Maybe I didn't explain well enough, but what I thought was odd was that his one stated reason for voting on Vulture was that Onyx thought they couldn't both be murderers, and that he hoped voting on Vulture would clear him. However, Onyx never said they couldn't both be innocent, and by Scorpion's own reasoning an innocent vulture would incriminate Scorpion. So it seemed odd to me that he was willing to gamble on that if had no other reasons to suspect Vulture, unless he didn't expect to suffer from any fallout brought on by vulture flipping village."
  12. Sunburst Toucan
    "Scorpion, you don't sound too convinced of Amber's guilt. I assume you realize that Flamingo's reasoning also works in reverse? If Amber proves innocent, that would put even more suspicion on you, so if the only reason to vote Amber is for you to clear yourself, and you don't actually suspect her, you might want to rethink that plan. Unless, of course, you aren't particularly worried about what might happen tomorrow. Maybe because you've got a large group of friends that'll protect you if a couple more people are 'dealt with'." Vanna knew she was being too aggressive, but the entire situation had worn her nerves and patience down. She'd spent quite a bit of time looking into the people the murderers had killed, and she'd thought she'd found a pattern. And the murderers had casually broken it this night. Vanna thought she'd heard someone mention Crocodile while she made her suspicion of Scorpion known. A quick look around revealed that that was Nolan. She didn't really remember crocodile, but it might be worth looking into, if only to check whether Nolan was being sincere in hiss suspicion. You are not a Mayor. Anyone who accuses you of being one should look up the actual definition of a mayor, and you're very much not it. I wouldn't be so certain of that. If the GM's where making a particularly trollish division, they could give the village both a lot of lightweavers and a skybreaker, just to make the skybreaker's job more difficult.
  13. Sunburst Toucan
    15 portraits now. Vanna was putting the finishing touches to the portrait of Lion, but drawing did little to reduce her anxiety. She forced herself to concentrate, and to finish it without rushing. However, as soon as she was done she rushed to her desk and resumed with looking over her notes. The secret to solving all this was probably somewhere in there, if only she had the wits necessary to find it. She'd looked over the past couple of days several times now, but she'd yet to find a piece of clear evidence. The events of the last day might have changed that though. 'Well, it's a start, I guess." Vanna said to no one in particular. She placed the notebook back in a small hollow hidden behind her bed. If the murderers did go after her, she hoped that at least the notebook would survive, and someone else would be able to make use of it.
  14. Sunburst Toucan
    "Hmmm, so weasel was the one to start the lynch against Swan back during the second day? Most of the other evidence seems to be just people having bad gut-reads, and axolotl's as-of-yet unproven system, but that is something that might actually be a clue." Vanna thought back to what Weasel had been doing and saying back then. "Okay, so he seemed to be misinterpreting, or maybe purposefully misrepresenting, Swan's vote on flamingo back then. That same post was also used by beagle as a reason for voting on Swan. Hmmm, Nolan ( @Ivory Dragonfly) was there anyone in particular who provided that as important evidence for lynching Swan in the Oxblood group? It's probably nothing, but if Weasel does prove to be evil, then this might be something to look into." Vanna forced her thoughts back to the present. It wouldn't do to start planning for a case which weasel was guilty as long as that hand't been proven yet.
  15. Sunburst Toucan
    Vanna had left the central square shortly after noon. the decision to lynch weasel had been made, and though she didn't really agree with it, she saw no good reason to fight it either. Some people would no doubt see her leaving as an attempt to distance herself from what would happen when night fell. maybe they where right. She'd never really seen god reasons to think weasel guilty, but she hadn't seen anything to believe him innocent either. Now, with the way people had worked themselves up over it, it was simply necessary to know whether he was guilty or not. If he was then some people at least could be considered innocent because of their role in taking weasel down. If he was innocent, then a look could be taken at those that pushed for a relynch today while pretending to have actual arguments. She'd tried to get a better explanation from the lynch out of Ostrich, but he'd remained stubbornly silent, so if weasel was innocent, that would be a good person to look into more. Vanna's wanderings had one again led her to a ledge overlooking the outside world. It was pretty much the same as it had been that morning. Maybe there where a couple of smoke plumes closer to the village, but nothing else had changed. For as long as she'd lived in the village, coming out here had brought the urge to draw or paint out. When the Desolation had begun the vista still had inspired awe within her, even as the signs of destruction spread and multiplied. But now, she felt no urge to draw. The expanse before her looked boring and overly familiar, like the wall of a cell that she'd spent too many days studying in detail.
  16. Sunburst Toucan
    Vanna was standing atop a cliff, looking at the pillars of smoke down below. They seemed to have gotten closer. It had been several days since last she'd come here, but she'd needed a bit of time alone. Very few villagers came here, so she had plenty of time to gather her wits and work out her frustrations. The pillars of smoke rising around the village reminded Vanna of the bars of a prison, and she felt a shiver coursing over her spine. She hated this feeling of being trapped, of having her freedom taken away from her. For a moment, she felt certain. she'd grab the bag she'd been preparing and leave the village behind. She'd go and look for survivors elsewhere, away from the suspicions and murders. Her resolve didn't last for more than three steps away from the cliff, and instead of heading home she move towards the village square for today's discussion and hanging. *** She could hear several voices raised in accusation of weasel as she walked onto the square. That was to be expected, after the failed lynch against him yesterday. Vanna didn't suspect him overly much, but he hadn't done anything to inspire confidence either, so it surprised her when @Fuchsia Ostrich claimed that there was a lot of evidence against weasel. "Ostrich, could you do me a favor and explain this evidence to me? I probably haven't been paying enough attention to weasel, so if you could explain what makes him suspicious, I'd appreciate it." Vanna made sure that the question didn't sound like an accusation. she knew well enough that she wasn't as informed as she'd have liked to be. "And there's something else I'd like to discuss regarding the murders. Has anyone else noticed that they seem to be targeting those among us that are relatively quiet? The only person that really broke that pattern was Gecko as far as I know, but everyone else fits." Vanna tried to remember who'd first suggested that the murderers where laying low, but couldn't remember. " Someone suggested earlier on that the murderers where probably laying low, but with every murder they committed there are less villagers that match that description. I might be wrong, but I don't think it would make sense to reduce the numbers of the group you're trying to hide in. If I was in such a position, i'd be focusing on the loudest villagers, trying to stifle discussion and removing the most perceptive people first. It worries me that the murderers don't think this is necessary." "Of course, it might be that they are trying to get us to make the conclusion I've come to. After all, there would probably still be enough people for them to hide among right now, and it could be a way to cast suspicion on those that should be trusted the most. It could also be that they pick their targets to decrease the risk of attacking someone that was being guarded, but that's assuming there even is someone watching out for us, and I've seen no proof of that as of yet." Vanna realized she'd started rambling agian, adn quickly cut her speech short. "I'm not sure if this means anything, but I'd like to hear other opinions than just my own on it. As for me, I think several murderers are hiding amongst those most in the spotlight. I'm not sure who they are, and I'm not accusing anyone until I've got some actual proof, but I think it's something that needs to be evaluated." OC: In the last AG the elim team had three mistborn (link to AG3 elim doc, see page 2 for roles), which is basically equivalent to the worldhopper in this game, so I'm not sure how many conclusions we can make on the amount of worldhoppers and their alignment. Are you certain those claimed to you have the roles they claimed, and are not just worldhoppers that used the opportunity of a certain power to convince you they had that one?
  17. Sunburst Toucan
    "No one has managed to lead a lynch on an elim yet, unless Weasel is one." Vanna sighed. there where still way too many uncertainty's around. "As for why people trust him? I suppose Nolan sounds incredibly innocent, and he hasn't really done anything that makes people suspect him. That doesn't actually prove anything, at least as far as I'm concerned, but he hasn't given me a reason to suspect him either. If you do have a reason, then I'd very much like to hear it."
  18. Sunburst Toucan
    @Orlok Tsubodai, if Weasel had been a worldhopper that just happened to be an elsecaller today, would the indications being made here be different? He's currently marked as an elsecaller, and I'm wondering if that guarantees that he's an elsecaller, or whether he could be a worldhopper as well.
  19. Sunburst Toucan
    Vanna was sketching with Charcoal. With the village's water-supply contaminated all the water needed to be saved for drinking and cooking, and couldn't be wasted on other things, like painting. It was a compromise, but she didn't think those she was sketching would mind. She was working on the fifth out of thirteen right now. She worried about her lack of relief that it weren't fourteen right now. Weasel had survived, but that didn't prove anything. Chances where that he'd just be lynched again tomorrow, and the murderers where still free to act. All in all, it would have been better if weasel had just died tonight. 'Why am I thinking like this? I shouldn't be thinking that! I'm not here to get people killed!' Before resuming work on the portraits, Vanna had added bit of detail to her painting. She couldn't progress without using paint, which was secretly a relief, but she'd added some details in charcoal. Those details didn't make the painting any less disturbing to her. Red and black encroaching on a bright.. thing... int he middle. But did this thing shine the bright light of hope, or something harsher altogether? She didn't know, and it scared her.
  20. Sunburst Toucan
    "Then how about you fill in the missing detail, Scorpion? I doubt we'll learn much if you're village, but if you've got a good reason for your suspicion of Nolan then it's important you share it with us." Vanna sighed at the other's seeming stubbornness. "It's not like we want to kill you. Well, most of us don't want that anyway, but if you're unwilling or incapable of defending yourself you don't exactly make things easier for us."
  21. Sunburst Toucan
    The village square had become far quieter than it had been before. On previous days it had been a hub of activity and discussion, but now it was becoming quieter. It wasn't just the missing villagers either. 'Heh, missing... Is it really so hard to think of them as... Yeah, I suppose it is.' Those that where still around seemed to be becoming quieter too. Hopefully discussion will liven up again if we can find one of the murderers. Until then, Vanna'd just have to do her best to contribute her part to keep discussion going. "I... I think I agree with Ostrich about Scorpion. I didn't really see him doing anything suspicious until he made that accusation of Dragonfly. There might be some truth to it, but the way he worded it seemed purely intended to cause distrust, rather than prove anything. That, to me, suggests that he doesn't think there actually is any proof, as otherwise he'd have mentioned that he would try to prove his point later, rather than just telling us to distrust him." Vanna took a deep breath. Next came the bit that would be difficult. She hated getting into confrontations with people, but that seemed to be necessary right now. 'Just be like one of those experienced city-watchmen, or a heroic Radiant, or something else that's not you, and you'll be fine.' "That having been said, I'm not yet done with Albatross(@Magenta Albatross)." Vanna turned to the villager in question as she said the name. "First of all, I wanted to make sure I understand something correctly. Your vote on Meerkat was made because you wanted to vote, and he had a lot of votes on him already, correct? That seems to be what you're saying, but I want to make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here." "Then, there's your suspicion of me. Your core argument seems to be my behavior during the second day, right? Your other argument seems to be that I lack firm conclusions on a number of villagers, but as I pointed out before, most of the villagers I am unsure about are villagers you haven't even given opinions on when you where going through the more involved villagers. I don't think it's a particularly odd that I can't form solid opinions on those staying at the fringes. Apart from these two things you mention a number of things you've seen that could have been done by either an innocent or a murderer, as well as several things that makes you consider it more likely that I'm innocent. But your conclusion int eh end is that you think it's extremely likely I'm one of the murderers." She paused for a second to move a stray lock of hair out of her face. "I really don't see how you concluded it was so likely that I was one of the murderers. I guess I can see where your initial suspicion was coming from. It took me awhile to get a solid idea of who was doing what, and until I did, i was mostly just reacting to what happened directly around me. Yet I don't think you've marked anything I've done as directly suspicious, apart form my vote on you, since the third or fourth day, yet it seems you're suspicion has grown, not diminished in that time, based on your conclusion." Vanna raised a hand to forestall a response. "There's one argument that I'm ignoring, of course, and that's the idea that I've been planning to make an attempt to lynch you for a while now as part of a plan hatched by the murderers. That's an accusation you can't expect me to defend myself against, as there's no proof for it either way. Peng has died. I voted on you. Those are facts. Your interpretation that it is part of some grand scheme is just an interpretation though, and one that is more far-fetched than some of the simpler suggestions, such as the idea that I'm just somewhat suspicious of you. I'd also like to note that I've never brought up Peng as proof of your guilt, which is something I would have likely done if killing him had been part of a master-plan, right? The one thing I do take away from that argument is that you believe very strongly in your own innocence. If you didn't, I don't think you would have brought up a complot as part of your argument. That's a point in your favor, I suppose." Vanna presented a hard face and a sure voice, but it took a lot of effort to do so. For all she knew, Albatross was one of the murderers, and getting called out like this could make him snap into violence. Or maybe she was wrong, and currently gravely insulting an innocent. Still, without the facade she was currently throwing up, she likely wouldn't have been able to confront the accusation at all.
  22. Sunburst Toucan
    "Nolan, can you explain this more?" Vanna shook her head in confusion. "I can see the point about Peng being murdered with the goal of incriminating Albatross, but what other evidence do you see that could be 'carefully arranged'? And regarding Peng's murder, the idea that it was made especially to incriminate albatross seems to have been the first suspicion of a lot of people, so I'm not really sure if we can draw a valid conclusion about that. After all, the murderers could have predicted the conclusion about it being made to frame albatross, so they did it to protect one of their own. That's not really a line of thought I want to take to its logical conclusion though." Vanna got a head-ache just from thinking about thinking about that. "As for the case against Weasel, I don't really see a good case for lynching him. I don't see a case against lynching him either as he hasn't said or done anything that makes me trust him. However, if 'hasn't done anything to look trustworthy' is the best reason we can come up with for a lynch, I suspect we're in a lot of trouble. It's a fine argument for keepin an eye on someone, of course, but it's not something to hang them for." "As for scorpion..." Vanna's voice trailed of as she realized she didn't actually have much to say about him. "Ehm,. I'll have to review what he's said and done again. For now my concerns about Albatross haven't been lifted. In fact, it seems like a number of people are using the Peng murder as proof that albatross's being framed, ignoring other things, like hiscomment on the Meerkat lynch. This worries me, especially because people are calling the lynch on albatross 'easy' when it's a three-way tie. In hindsight the Meerkat lynch was easy, but nothing seems to be indicating that for Albatross right now."
  23. Sunburst Toucan
    Now the murderers had taken down the shardbearer. It seemed like they where getting bolder after almost a week had passed without any of them being caught. Vanna feared that things couldn't continue going like this for much longer. If the murderers wouldn't finish the job first, then a lack of water would do them in. Vanna had started stockpiling food, water, gems and other essentials. She still didn't want to run, but if the choice was between staying and dying or leaving, she'd leave. Several villagers had been asking her about her conclusions about who was likely innocent, and who wasn't. She supposed this was fair enough as she'd spent the last few days making notes. "There's only one that I trust without serious reservations right now, and that would be Zebra. He seems to be focused not just on his own investigation, but in helping others do theirs, which isn't something I expect a murderer to do. My instincts are telling me that Nolan (dragonfly) is innocent too, but I don't trust my instincts in this regard, and the fact that I haven't been able to find why I feel that way worries me. There are others I'm not really suspecting right now, but I wouldn't say I trust them either." "Now, regarding my direct suspicions. I'm wary of Albatross right now. His small contribution during the meerkat lynch just looked strange, as he claimed suspicion of three people, and then voted on someone else entirely, saying that this was important for gathering information. Given that at that point the lynch of Meerkat seemed all but guaranteed, i don't see what kind of information could be gained from anyone else adding their votes." "I'm also still waiting for @Sage Kangaroo to answer my question about his vote retractions during the early days. That could have had a very innocent reason, but until he shares his reasons I'm suspicious of him as well." "Lastly, there's Axolotl with his new voting system. If that system gets results then I might trust him more, but right now it seems like he's just throwing up a smoke-screen to hide behind."
  24. Sunburst Toucan
    Just wanted to quickly mention I'll be rather busy today. I will try to have a post up within the first half of this day-cycle, but I can't guarantee it.
  25. Sunburst Toucan
    "Really, Squawk. Do you have any idea how late it currently is?" Vanna muttered to herself after Squawk's shouting had disturbed her rest. She walked over to the town square where the chicken was shouting after making sure she was dressed decently. "Can you keep it down? Normal people are trying to sleep right now." She admonished the loud bird. "I'll answer your questions fully tomorrow, as right now I've got neither the time nor the wakefullness to do so."She started to turn away, but then remembered something. "Though there is one thing I'd like to make note of, just in case. Albatross voted on Meerkat, after expressing suspicion of me. Yet I'd already voted against Meerkat before that. I find it odd that Albatross'd follow along with someone she'd expressed suspicion of, especially when she expressed no such suspicion of Meerkat." With that, Vanna turned away from the square and returned home fro some rest. She got little enough sleep as it was without people suddenly starting shouting in the middle of the night. OC(as I can't find a way to talk about a meta topic IC (I understand the usefulness of cats now)): I've been an elim in past games, and though it can be somewhat stressful, I've never actually found being up for the lynch problematic. In fact, in the cases where I was up for the lynch with people bringing up legitimate arguments, I've always found that to relieve most of the pressure involved with being an elim, rather than add to it. If anything, being up for the lynch as a villager puts more pressure on me than being up as an elim. That might just be me though. (edit: in case it needs to be said, I'm not actually angry at you, Flamingo, but your ping came relatively late in the evening for me, and this seems like a perfect way for Vanna to react)
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