-
Posts
849 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Posts posted by Nyali
-
-
Mistwraiths vote on Mistwraiths all the time, especially early on, to establish innocence later by pointing at their earlier votes. I don't see how the first person to vote on a known Mistwraith is at all cleared by said vote. Is that the only point you have in defense of Rae? You don't find anything she said yesterday to be at all suspicious?
0 -
10 minutes ago, Jondesu said:
Nyali, you're saying you shouldn't be suspicious because you were defended by a known Elim, but also that Rae is suspicious...because she defended an Elim? Can't really buy into that logic.
On mobile at the doctor, so no RP right now, sorry.
Umm, no, I'm saying Rae is suspicious because she wanted us to not kill Dalinar to the point where she said the village will lose of we lynched him. That's a little different in my eyes and spoke more of desperation to me. Also, in addition to saying that, she said that a coinshot should kill him at night, despite most of us expecting the Mistwraiths to have a lurcher. She keeps suggesting tactics that really help the Mistwraiths. That's what I'm suspicious of.
0 -
2 hours ago, Madagascar said:
So after lookin' at the recordsh o' thoshe accushin' them, I don't share the shushpishionsh of Rae an Hemalurgic. I think it'sh more likely Dalinar wash tryin' to help Nyali out after she got caught tryin' to kill Rae on shaky groundsh, an' jusht ushed Rae ash a cover to look fair an' highminded.
A few things here - first of all, I wasn't trying to kill Rae cycle 1. I was trying to get her to explain herself a little better, because what it sounded like she was saying was really suspicious to me. She was suggesting tactics that I felt would only help the Mistwraiths kill us all. (I will say though that though I didn't think she was a Mistwraith then, I'm thinking she's since been replaced, because what she said last cycle in defense of Dalinar was extremely worrying.)
Also, whenever I've been an eliminator here, the first rule has always been "never defend another eliminator." I don't know if all eliminator teams do it that way, but I hardly think a known Mistwraith defending me on the first day means I must be a Mistwraith too. Especially since the "suspicion" I was being defended against was unfounded and based on people completely ignoring everything I posted and just looking at who I voted for. I'm actually still annoyed about that.
I'm actually going to put a vote on Rae now, and this time, the reason isn't so I can get more information from her. While I am a bit suspicious about her completely ignoring me cycle 1 when I asked for elaboration, I'm very suspicious of her fervent defense of Dalinar yesterday.
0 -
Hmm. I went back and looked at yesterday to see who exactly advocated for us to not kill Dalinar and instead let the coinshot kill him. All I really found was Rae advocating for it rather strongly, and Wilson mentioning it once. (Elenion argued that we should kill the person he suspects is a spiked lurcher instead of Dalinar, but only so our coinshot could kill Dalinar in the night, so that doesn't count.) Wilson, I'm biased about. The first time we played a game together (LG20, which was also my first game), she tricked me for like the whole game, so I'm always worried about her. But, she was advocating discussion of people who were not Dalinar more than making a tactical suggestion.
Rae, on the other hand, specifically said "Don't waste another lynch on Dalinar if you want the village to win." That statement makes no sense to me. A lot of what Rae's said this game has made little sense to me, starting with the Day 1 role suggestions she posted. This all puts her as my top suspect for now.
I don't know how I feel about Lopen. I don't know the role distribution in this game, but if Wilson's attack was not a WGG, that makes me suspect Lopen. He insists he didn't protect her night one, and I doubt there are two village lurchers and a Mistwraith lurcher. But, I guess there could be? Or there could be a village Mistborn who could have rolled Iron? I really don't know how Meta does role distributions.
I'll try to say more about other players later - work and home have just been really busy.
Nyah tentatively approached the "Free Cat Bar." She was rather hungry and hadn't had cat in ages. She heard the price was all of her money, which made her laugh. What orphan has money? It must be a way that the generous soul who was offering the cats could keep out those who weren't beggars or orphans.
She was surprised when she sat down and was handed a live cat. Perhaps this was one of those places where you had to kill and cook the food yourself? She didn't notice any knives. She took hers out of her belt and put it to the cat's throat. The cat looked at her and purred. She dropped the knife, startled by adorable feline eyes. No, this was not what she had expected at all. She just couldn't do it, so she pushed the cat off of her, snatched her knife from the ground, and ran.
She would go hungry tonight, she reckoned, but at least that cat would be okay.
2 -
43 minutes ago, Arraenae said:
Honestly, I’m a little suspicious of the people voting on Dalinar. We’ve already spent 2 lynches and 1 Coinshot attack on him. Better to let the coinshot kill him at their own time (so the elims are less likely to have him protected that Night.) Regardless of his alignment, we're not getting much information out of trying to kill him again via the lynch.
If Dalinar was telling the truth, and it now looks like he was, he's the Mistwraith Mistborn. Every day that he survives is another chance for the Mistwraiths to gain access to Coinshot capabilities. There is literally no way he can survive being lynched this time (and I've managed to scrounge up some acid (don't ask), which should help). If we let him live, we'll just have to contend with this every night until he dies. He openly admits that he's a rioter this turn, so we need the lynch to be winning by a fair amount or he'll get away.
I'm still trying to figure out why the village coinshot killed Straw. It just doesn't make any sense to me. I guess they figured Dalinar would be protected again and went for someone else, but the choice just seems random. I am a believer in coinshotting someone every night, but you're supposed to go for the suspicious people first, not roll a die.
Regardless of whether or not the Mistwraith Council performed a WGG on Wilson, I highly doubt the Mistwraith Council would perform two WGGs, so to me, Jondesu is pretty much cleared.
I don't really have many suspicions to share right now - I need to go back and reread the days I missed. My brain is pretty fried from puzzling though, making analyzing this game difficult. x.x
Oh, and Doc, the comment about you being hard-cleared was a joke of sorts - I'm convinced the eliminators are Mistwraiths, and they're immune to emotional allomancy. You were rioted. Ergo, you cannot be a Mistwraith.
EDIT: When people vote for Joe, could you please specify which Joe you're voting for? I keep thinking people are voting for the player named Joe when they might be voting for HH and it's confusing.
2 -
6 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:
I checked the online times of the no-voters to see if I could narrow down who was around when all of the voting craziness happened(about, the last hour of the lynch or so) and I my top suspects based on that are Nyali, Wonko, Hero, and Joe(with Wonko as my biggest suspect probably, because he was last online just a few minutes after the votes switched to Ecthelion and then he went offline I believe, which means he may not have been around to cancel his Rioting order once the tie was in place).
How do you know that the rioting was done during the last minute vote changing shenanigans? As I pointed out yesterday, it could just as easily have been planned and done well in advance. Anytime in the last ~15 hours, I believe, as that was when Doc voted on Dalinar. There were a bunch of people with two votes on them, and the Mistwraith Council could easily have decided to deflect the vote from Dalinar to Ecth well before things started changing at the last minute. It was Dalinar's vote that selected who the secondary vote target would be, as his put it from a tie with a few others at 2 to 3. Unless I'm totally mistaken, the last minute changes just added a couple more votes to Dalinar and Ecth, they didn't change whether rioting would save Dalinar or not.
Also, I should point out that the first day mess hard-clears Doc, doesn't it? Emotional Allomancy doesn't work on Mistwraiths, right?
Have we decided to go for Dalinar the Mistwraith this turn? Or are we tired of hanging Mistwraiths only to find out that they don't need to breathe? Might I suggest we try acid this time?
0 -
Ugh, guess he was telling the truth. Stupid Mistwraiths are waaay too durable. No lynch means no new 100% confirmed information, and the voting patterns aren't helpful because most of us are sure Dalinar is a Mistwraith, but some didn't vote for him because they thought it would waste the lynch (which it wound up doing)...
0 -
I'm back from the Mystery Hunt! It was fun. I'll try to catch up here...
At this point, there's almost no chance of anyone but Dalinar being lynched, but in light of what he's said, is that the right thing to do? I am pretty sure Dalinar is an elim. His posts really scream "elim trying to survive for just one more turn" to me. We could be wrong, but I really don't think so. So, the question is, do we lynch Dalinar this turn or next turn?
If Dalinar is telling the truth, this lynch will be wasted on him. But, at the same time, if he's lying, that's a great claim to try to get out of a lynch. I think it's clear he's an elim, but maybe we should just lynch him tomorrow when it's far more likely to work? If he's a Mistborn, then chances are high (100%?) he won't have Pewter tomorrow regardless of what he has today. If he's actually a Thug, well, he WAS attacked last turn. Do we know he was even lurched? Couldn't he have been protected by thugginess? It just seems that he would have no reason to lie if he WAS a Mistborn with Pewter this turn. I feel like it's unlikely that him surviving one more turn will be bad for us, unless he WAS a mistborn, in which case there's a chance he'll roll Steel next turn, which would be rather bad. Or if he really was a Mistborn and rolled Pewter NEXT turn... You can't get the same metal twice, right? So, if he rolled something besides Steel turn one, and rolled Pewter this turn, he has a 1/6 chance to roll Steel next turn? Is that how it works?
Okay, I think I've convinced myself that it IS worth it to vote for Dalinar, especially since the elims seem to have vote manip powers so the lynch really needs to be solidified.
0 -
5 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:
I've gone back through the no-voters online times and here are the players who I'm pretty sure were online during that 30 minute period: Joe(although he initially voted on Dalinar, so I'm inclined to think he isn't the Rioter), Nyali(pretty sure she was online, but not 100% positive because she was online after the Day ended as well, so the timestamp of when she was last on doesn't help much), Herowannabe(same as Nyali I think), Silverblade(same as Nyali and Hero), Lopen(I'm not the Rioter. Not exactly proof, but I did help the lynch on Dalinar, though I eventually removed my vote. >>), and Wonko(he was last online just a few minutes after Dalinar switched his vote to Ecthelion).
So my top suspects for the Rioter are Nyali, Hero, Silverblade, and Wonko. I think Nyali would be my first guess
Yes, I was online at rollover, and I didn't vote because I find last minute voting to be extremely suspicious.
Your line of logic here is a bit dangerous and misleading. If we're assuming that Dalinar is an elim and the elims rioted to save him, why do you think the person had to be online at the last second to do it? The elims would have known that Dalinar was going to vote for Ecth ahead of time, and the rioting order could have been put in place well before rollover. In fact, at rollover, it looked like Dalinar would be fine due to the tie, so an elim rioter might have retracted their rioting order at the last minute if they were watching at rollover.
EDIT: I am not going to be around for the first chunk of this cycle due to the MIT Mystery Hunt, which starts at noonEST today and runs until some time on Sunday. I might be able to get on at some point during the Hunt, but it's unlikely. I should be back before Day 2 ends, and I'll try to catch up and post then. If anyone else here is doing the Hunt this year - good luck!
1 -
10 hours ago, little wilson said:
Um. Hm. I know you did alignment of one of the voters. I thought it was first voter. I know it was in a game where Nyali had mentioned that 90% of the time, the first (or second, whichever it was) voter is an eliminator, and since you were bored in the doc, and we were both curious, you checked with all the games and found it was the opposite here. But I can't remember what game doc it was in. Pretty sure it was after LG 20 though. Possibly LG 25. Maybe. I don't know. Sorry. >>
It was actually the first or second time someone posted a second vote on someone in an attempt to start a train on that person. Where I used to play Mafia, that person who cast the second vote was most likely an elim. Here, it turns out to not be true at all, in fact the opposite is true. Elims here seem to be much more cautious with their votes in general. But that's not really something you can rely on to identify or clear people, since it's not as useful a statistic as the opposite case is.
My vote on Rae was an attempt to get her to answer my question. I was planning to remove it when she actually did answer, but she still hasn't done so... I guess I'll remove it anyway - I don't really think Rae is that suspicious.
0 -
7 minutes ago, Elenion said:
Nyali's only suspicious because she called Rae on it, so I don't find her suspicious.
That's not even close to what I said. I said I'm voting for her because she seems to want to know how many of each role there are in the town, and that seemed suspicious to me. The typo was just a typo - my opinion on Lurchers still stands, it just happens to be the same as what Rae thought now.
0 -
To be clear, I just want Rae to answer my question. I didn't vote for her because I disagree with her tactical suggestions, I voted on her because I want to know why she thinks learning the number of villagers in each role is helpful to the village rather than the eliminators. That's the part I found suspicious.
Sorry if I contradicted myself in my post, but I don't see it that way, Ari. I said I didn't think we should be trying to determine exactly how many of each role there are, not that we should all hide our roles completely. I wasn't recommending vote manipulation, I was saying that vote manipulators should feel free to manipulate the vote if they think the lynch target is innocent (and there's someone close enough in votes for it to matter). I don't see how those are contradictory. I said that I think it's silly to say that vote manipulators shouldn't use their powers because it takes away information. Instead, it gives more information, in my view.
0 -
5 minutes ago, STINK said:
Also, why hath George been getting no PMs from all you lovely people? I'm only a Seeker, can't open any PMs like one of those Tineye's.
I thought anyone could open PMs with anyone else as long as a Tineye was alive?
0 -
I'm not sure I agree with all of those, Rae, though I do like some of them. Here are my thoughts, which I'd like to share before the mistwraiths come for me -
9 hours ago, Arraenae said:Some tips for the various roles we have:
Stay alive and be more active. The elims can't kill you as easily, so you have every reason to speak up more. An active villager that needs two hits to kill is a fantastic villager.
Agreed.
If we have a tineye in here, please send a message to the GM so we know how many of you there are. Try to include something that you can later use to identify yourself with later. One thing you can use is a vignere cipher. You would put in something like "IAMRAE" repeated over and over again, cutting off at a random letter. You'd use a key to change it to ciphertext. Then, if you ever need to confirm your role to someone, you can just PM them the ciphertext.
I strongly disagree with this. What's the point? Why do we need to know how many tineyes there are? The power of tineyes is that they allow us to talk amongst ourselves without the elims necessarily being privy to that information. The elims don't need tineyes to do that. The only reason to learn the number of village tineyes out there is so the elims know how many they need to take out to stop the town from communicating in private. Also, as stated by another, your cipher idea would create a cipher that's relatively easy to crack.
Unless you have good reason to suspect that there is rampant emotional allomancy, it's probably not a good idea to Smoke people. This can interfere with scans, something that benefits the eliminators a lot. If you do think that there is elim emotional allomancy, you should prioritize those who are voting for people at a tie or near a tie. The elims will probably care most about close votes, either because a teammate is on the line or because they just want to mess with the village. You have a better shot at blocking vote manipulation if you Smoke the people the elims will want to target.
I agree here, but I just wanted to state that just because a seeking failed on someone, it doesn't automatically mean they are an eliminator. They very probably are, but they could also be a villager that an eliminator smoker decided to smoke to confuse the village. But still, if the vote isn't close, Smoking will just mess with the super powerful role of Seeker.
Seeker. If you exist, you have a very, very powerful role. Thus, it's in your best interests to stay alive for as long as possible. Only roleclaim to people you have scanned as village. Find a way to announce your scans publicly. Whoever acts as your spokesperson will probably be targetted by the elims, unless they get protection. If you can find a Tineye and work with them, that would be great. Unfortunately, if you ever out yourself as a seeker, I'll want to kill you near the end of the game to confirm that you aren't an elim. Sorry.
This is good advice. With open PMs, you can create a slowly growing network of known villagers by contacting the people you seek. Once the trust network gets big enough, the we are pretty much guaranteed a win. Open PMs + village Seekers is a very, very, very powerful combo.
Try not to kill people unless you have a strong suspicion that they're an elim. If not, it's probably not a good idea to randomly kill people. If by the third cycle you have nobody to kill, then you can go for inactives who have been silent or near silent without giving an explanation. Obviously, don't attack people if they've said that they're going to be inactive because of RL circumstances.
I consider vigilantes to be an extremely powerful role for a villager (and overpowered for an elim). We clearly don't have an elim coinshot or else there would have been two kill attempts on Night 1 instead of one. Any village coinshot out there, in my opinion, should use their power on the person they suspect the most each night. It's just like the lynch - attempting to kill someone who has a chance at being an elim is how the village wins. It is essentially a second lynch. Use it.
In the early cycles, the people who contribute a lot tend to be offed most often. Active villagers are more useful than inactive villagers, so you probably shouldn't bother protecting them. Later on, protect the people you trust.
I'm confused by what you mean here. Don't bother protecting active villagers? Those are exactly the people to protect. I recommend protecting the most active villager OR protecting yourself. The nice thing about protecting yourself is that you are guaranteed to be protecting a villager. You should definitely protect someone every night. While it's possible you could protect an eliminator from a village coinshot, chances are much higher that you will protect a villager from an elim kill OR a villager from a errant coinshot attack.
Soother, please try not to meddle with the vote in the early cycles unless you know that this person is an elim or that person is a villager. Votes are very useful for analysis, but if they've been messed around by a Soother, it's harder to analyze them. Village and elim soothes look the same on a vote tally comparison. If possible, please try to soothe an unimportant vote (such as a lone poke vote) so we know you exist.
I don't understand this one - don't use your powers to manipulate the vote because votes are how we get information? But isn't the soothing/rioting a way of gaining extra information about the lynch? It's not like we can't look up what the votes were before they were manipulated. Also, showing off that you are a soother or rioter only helps the elims by telling them how many village soother/rioters there are so they know by what margin they need on lynches. In my opinion, soothers and rioters should use their powers to protect people they think are innocent (such as themselves) but the rest of the village is trying to kill.
Same as the soother, please try not to meddle with the vote in early cycles. You don't have to change an unimportant vote to let us know you're there, because that'll cancel out your own vote, which is a very powerful tool.
Same as above - what's the harm in meddling? It gives more information and doesn't take any away. But at the same time, don't meddle just for the sake of meddling - meddle to protect people you are pretty confident are villagers, such as yourselves.
Also, one last comment regarding Mistborn - because there are likely Mistborn out there, remember that any role you see could be a Mistborn. The Lurcher who protected Wilson might not be able to do so next cycle, for instance, since they could have been a Mistborn who rolled Iron. You seem interested in learning the exact village role spread (which is something I personally find rather suspicious), but the existence of Mistborn make that an almost impossible task. Just something to keep in mind.
That's pretty much all I've got right now, though I do want to say that the kill attempt on Wilson is interesting. It's either the first WGG I've actually seen around here, or it's yet another attempt to eliminate a known strong player before she gets going. Given how often Wilson dies early on, it's completely plausible that someone would protect her (or she could have protected herself).
The later is far more likely, but the former is still theoretically possible. When was the last WGG around here? For now, I personally tentatively trust Wilson, though that's burned me pretty hard in the past (LG20 anyone?).
For now, I think I'll put a vote on Rae. Rae, why are you so interested in knowing the role distribution among the villagers?
Nyah cautiously entered the manor. She was a little worried by all the people here - she never felt comfortable around so many, especially not noblemen. She didn't know how the lord of this manor took the Lord Ruler's death and the subsequent liberation of the skaa. Would she be killed for joining the rest?
As she approached, she noticed that there were other skaa in attendance, so she thought it would be okay. But then a thought came to mind, and she looked around nervously. The Mistwraiths are out there, somewhere. Unless.... Mistwraiths could take human forms. Did she know any of the other guests in the manor? Any of them could be a Mistwraith just waiting to eat her, body and soul, like they ate her parents! Did the Mistwraiths around here know about that? Were they the ones who did it? Nyah shivered despite the warmth and huddled into a corner where she tried to remain small, close enough to the rest to hear their conversation, but hopefully far enough away that she wouldn't be noticed by too many. It was going to be a long day.
0 -
Nyah stared at the body in the alleyway. It's happening, she thought. Just like my brother always said. Mistwraiths have come to kill us all, eat our bodies, and take our places. This man's warning... it didn't mention the mistwraiths at all. He must have been one of them, come to confuse us with this Koloss and Ruin and metal spikes nonsense! She took a step back - everyone knew that mistwraiths could appear to be dead if they wanted to be. Apprehensively, she carefully approached the body, then leaned down and gently poked the corpse. Hmm, feels just like flesh. Maybe if I poked him harder... She poked him again. So lifelike...
Nyah suddenly looked up, a growing realization striking her. She was alone with the body, everyone else having left for some lord's manor. She squeaked and jumped to her feet, then ran from the feigning mistwraith. I need to know what's going on, she thought. Guess I'll have to sneak into that manor now, though it's likely one or more of the people inside are mistwraiths too... She shivered as she began to make her way toward the manor house. This was going to be a long and frightening night.
I don't have many non-RP thoughts right now. I'm not very good at early game strategy - I'm much better when there's a lot of information to work from. Hopefully this starting at night thing will give us at least some info for Day 1.
2 -
7 minutes ago, Elbereth said:
For anyone who doesn't bother to read the evil doc, the reason we didn't kill JUQ was partly that we had so many already-trusted members and partly that I was a scan-hiding role.
Yeah, Arinian also had a scan-hiding Seal, which he successfully used at the right time... but it didn't do what we (or at least I) thought it would. I thought it would work like El's ability and make him show up as Innocent. Instead, it just made the scan fail, which didn't help since who would smoke someone who wasn't an eliminator? Ah well.
0 -
1 hour ago, Metacognition said:
It has nothing whatsoever to do with me possibly being a Mistwraith; no matter what anyone tells you.

I KNEW IT!!! And they called me crazy. HA!
0 -
What time does this game start, by the way? I can't find it in the OP. Is it at midnight EST? If so, that makes sense - mistwraiths only come out at night, after all.
0 -
Yeah, we were in a terrible position near the end. Two openly confirmed villagers, one who could protect and one who could vote manip, and neither of us left had useful powers. There wasn't much we could have done at that point. We couldn't get either lynched, and we had a 50% chance of failing to kill one of them at night. Even if the game went on, we had no chance.
0 -
2 minutes ago, Elbereth said:
Apologies to my teammates for causing our loss.
We would have lost anyway. You were the intended lynch target on the next day turn.
0 -
35 minutes ago, Elbereth said:
Crap.
Did you fail to send in a kill order on time? =\
0 -
4 hours ago, Seonid said:
Nyali. I think you're evil. Prove me wrong, or I'll use my brand-spanking new role abilities to add a vote to you and lynch you. I've stockpiled enough metals to do this for more than a few cycles, so if you're not Nyali, get on and participate or you're next.
Clearly, there’s an active eliminator. There’s been a kill or kill attempt every cycle all game (unless I missed something? I’m not paying much attention to this game). The only really active players left are you and Araris, as far as I can tell. Unless the elims decided to do a WGG on night ten, I think it’s clear that Araris is not the eliminator. That really just leaves you, in my estimation.
Plus, don’t we know that one of Wilson’s confidants leaked her role to the elims? Aren’t you the only one of those who is still alive and active?
Also, are you claiming to have the exact ability that was used to save Arinian?
Everything I see points straight to Seonid being an eliminator.
0 -
A few questions now that I've read the rules more carefully:
1. Does the Thug's once per game protection from death work on the lynch?
2. When a Rioter cancels their own vote by using their power, is their vote removed from the official tally? It seems like yes, but that seems like it would be really easy to figure out who is a Rioter.
3. If a Rioter both votes and riots a Smoker (or the one protected by the Smoker), is the Rioter's vote canceled even though they are unable to change the Smoker's vote? Or does the Smoker's vote count since they were essentially roleblocked?
4. When a Seeker attempts to use their power on a Spiked Smoker, are they told the Smoker is innocent, or are they told that their attempt to Seek someone was prevented by a Smoker?
5. Do eliminators get a night kill? I assume so, but I don't see it explicitly stated above.
6. Is there an eliminator kill on Night 0?
7. Can a Coinshot use their vig kill on Night 0?
8. Were my parents really eaten by Mistwraiths?
0 -
I'm signing up as Nyah, an orphan living on the streets. My parents left my brother and I one day, and I never knew why. Maybe they couldn't afford to feed my brother and I anymore, or maybe they just went for a short trip. All I know is that whenever I asked him, my brother always said that Mistwraiths ate my parents. Who knows, maybe they did? At the least, I know Mistwraiths are behind the recent troubles. Perhaps the Lord Ruler was eaten by one too? At the very least, they must be stopped, whatever the cost.
2

Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss
in Sanderson Elimination
Posted
Sorry for not posting, I was busy all weekend and didn't really have time to put toward SE.
I'm not sure what to say. I said things that people found suspicious, and I doubt anything I say will change their minds. If the Coinshot is a villager, I doubt they attacked Mad. Mad has been giving rather solid insight, even if the premise of her arguments is incorrect. I think the attack on Mad was the Mistwraith Council, since it would both implicate me further and remove a vocal person others are listening to. That would mean the hit on Doc was the Coinshot. Well, unless the coinshot was a Mistwraith too... I'm actually starting to think there IS no Coinshot, just a bunch of Mistborn. If the Mistwraiths had a Coinshot, they would have used the Coinshot every turn, and there was only one kill attempt Night 0. Also, Dalinar was attacked at least once by the Coinshot when everyone thought he was a Mistwraith. Some of the later Coinshot kills have made little sense unless the attacker was a Mistwraith. If this is the case, then unless a villager had a reason to hit Doc that I missed, that kill was likely from a second Mistwraith Mistborn. (well, if the Mistwraiths did both kills, then it doesn't matter which of the two was a Mistborn and which was the Mistwraith's nighttime victim, but you know what I mean.) I dunno. Maybe there is a coinshot, and they are a villager, and their choice of targets is just very different from what I would choose.
Regarding Rae, there's a huge difference, to me, between how Dalinar defended me early on and how Rae defended him when most other people thought he was an Mistwraith. Others, like Mad, don't see it that way. I doubt anything I say will change Mad's opinion on the matter. I still think Rae is likely an Mistwraith, especially since someone soothed a vote on her. The Mistwraiths used emotional allomancy to aid Dalinar several times, and a village rioter and soother have both been killed so it's less likely a villager did it. Though, if there ARE a bunch of Mistborn (see above), then I guess it could have been a village Mistborn? I still have no idea what the role distributions are...
Also, I'm pretty convinced that Jondesu and Mad are villagers at this point. They are at the top of my trust list, even if Mad is trying to kill me. Neither attack had the feel of a WGG. Wilson, I'm less sure of, but I'm very biased because of LG20 (where she fooled me repeatedly and for the entire game), so I'm refraining from saying anything further about her.
I'll try to look back through the turns I only had time to skim later and share more thoughts, but work has been really busy lately so it may not be possible for a while.