Mid-Range Game 41 / Anonymous Game 8: Lord of Chaos

[Magenta Albatross]

Hi all,

Is anyone willing to come forward and claim the kill on weasel? I'd be very interested to hear the reason why you'd like her eliminated. 

I'm going to place a vote on Charcoal Hyena . My win condition seemed compatible with Weasel's as both were achievable in concert with the death of Lews Therin. If Weasel considered Hyena a threat, it wouldn't hurt to role block her.

Sincerely me.

[Charcoal Hyena]

Albatross, I could not have killed Weasel because I PMed Scorpion as they suggested.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

3 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Albatross, I could not have killed Weasel because I PMed Scorpion as they suggested.

I can confirm this, I got a PM from them.

[Magenta Albatross]

Hi all,

Thanks for the confirmation, Scorpion. charcoal Hyena.

I imagine part of the reason for the lessened activity in the thread is some PMs have been set up. 

16 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Weasel's death was likely a result of Lews' Crew, considering they were probably the most trusted so far. At least we know when someone's killed with Balefire rather than by other means. 

Bold mine.

This is an interesting idea. Can someone who has read the books more recently than I have remind me which if any of Lew's Therin's contemporaries might have been alive and still willing to help him around this time?

Sincerely me.

[Charcoal Hyena]

16 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Hi all,

Thanks for the confirmation, Scorpion. charcoal Hyena.

I imagine part of the reason for the lessened activity in the thread is some PMs have been set up. 

Bold mine.

This is an interesting idea. Can someone who has read the books more recently than I have remind me which if any of Lew's Therin's contemporaries might have been alive and still willing to help him around this time?

Sincerely me.

Thank you.

Lews Therin aka the Dragon aka Rand Al'Thor has a bunch of buddies. His BFFs are Perrin and Mat. One talks to wolves and the other has the devil's own luck. Mechanically, I have no idea how Perrin and Mat would be implemented, other than Mat being able to mess with success percentages.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

1 hour ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Bold mine.

This is an interesting idea. Can someone who has read the books more recently than I have remind me which if any of Lew's Therin's contemporaries might have been alive and still willing to help him around this time?

My thought process was that we know there aren't 13 Forsaken (with how Crocodile flipped), and after discussions with Weasel in PM, those aligned with the Dark One seem very powerful. It would be a little unfair to expect one person to survive alone against 13 very powerful players. Therefore, this is probably balanced similarly to a standard game with around three people on Lews' side, hence Lews' Crew.

I don't know WoT well enough to hypothesize within the bounds of canon. Instead I am using what knowledge I do posses of SE and Mafia.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Right now I'm inclined to trust Charcoal Hyena because of the PM they opened with me, and Ivory Dragonfly because of Indigo Weasels endorsement. Of the two, I trust Ivory less because they could have somehow pocketed Indigo and manipulated them into trust one another. I'd be interested in hearing what @Ivory Dragonfly was talking about with Indigo in their PM.

I still want to know what happens when someone has more than 50% of the votes in one cycle. That being said, I think it would be beneficial to get more conversation happening again. If I am remembering correctly Indigo had a list of three suspects, one of which was Chartreuse Penguin whom has been posting mostly lore and role related stuff. The post during which they voted last cycle was simply a vote count with the words "This sounds like fun" which feels like them trying to avoid having to give proper reasoning to their vote.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I'd be interested in hearing what @Ivory Dragonfly was talking about with Indigo in their PM.

Our conversation was mostly regarding our roles and abilities. I shared my role/alignment/win-con and they shared their abilities. They had access to two Balefires, as well as a few other abilities. If anyone else in the Dark One's retinue has similar powers, it would be incredibly powerful.

Also, after learning more about the Balefire abilities Weasel had, I suspect the win-con to kill Lews may be more difficult than it first appears. Which is another reason I suspect Lews has allies.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

9 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Right now I'm inclined to trust Charcoal Hyena because of the PM they opened with me, and Ivory Dragonfly because of Indigo Weasels endorsement. Of the two, I trust Ivory less because they could have somehow pocketed Indigo and manipulated them into trust one another. I'd be interested in hearing what @Ivory Dragonfly was talking about with Indigo in their PM.

I still want to know what happens when someone has more than 50% of the votes in one cycle. That being said, I think it would be beneficial to get more conversation happening again. If I am remembering correctly Indigo had a list of three suspects, one of which was Chartreuse Penguin whom has been posting mostly lore and role related stuff. The post during which they voted last cycle was simply a vote count with the words "This sounds like fun" which feels like them trying to avoid having to give proper reasoning to their vote.

Why have I spent a lot of time on lore and roles?  Because it's fun...and because that's the only conversation I've been legitimately able to contribute to so far...and it's best able to help me win the game.  My wincon is compatible with others', but it's rather helpful to know who those others are.

FYI, my action from last cycle can be confirmed - I opened a PM with the Ostrich.  I'm considering creating an alliance of birds to take over this game.

[Azure Mouse]

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

FYI, my action from last cycle can be confirmed - I opened a PM with the Ostrich.  I'm considering creating an alliance of birds to take over this game.

Don't eat me! 

[Charcoal Hyena]

With minimal information and limited PMs, it’s hard to perform any in-depth analysis. However, I’ve got a hunch that Lews is probably lurking or limiting contact.

I don’t like these vibes:

Coral Swan

Amber Vulture

Cream Tuatara 

[Amber Vulture]

Tuatara claimed Lanfear, which would be a difficult role for Lews to fake, or rather an easy role to prove by targeting another saidar user with a non-fatal weave. I've heard about five separate saidar claims, equal to the number of Forsaken that should be able to use this power but perhaps not equal to the total number of saidar users if Moraine is in the game. Whether or not any saidar users could be evil, it's not necessary to kill any of them for those whose goal is to kill Lews. Scorpion backs up Hyena's PM claim and Mouse backs up Dragonfly's claim that a non-majority lynch roleblocks the target, so neither Hyena nor Mouse should have been able to kill Weasel. Falcon claimed to be roleblocked for cycle 2, but the only one who can confirm that is Crocodile. While Weasel made a good point about Lews having more information than the rest of us, it's more likely that he knew there was a Forsaken majority out to kill him than which Forsaken specifically were in the game, which I would say makes Dingo less likely to be Lews. That leaves Scorpion, Swan, Falcon(lesser), Albatross, and Penguin(one of which I've heard is a saidar user but has not been revealed in thread) as likely Dragons, although if someone like Moraine does exist it opens up the possibility for her to have killed Weasel and thus being roleblocked would not prevent someone from being the Dragon.

 

[Ivory Dragonfly]

34 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Scorpion backs up Hyena's PM claim and Mouse backs up Dragonfly's claim that a non-majority lynch roleblocks the target, so neither Hyena nor Mouse should have been able to kill Weasel.

Mouse would have have been able to take an action last cycle, as they were roleblocked C1. That's also the turn where the only kill was carried out by a claimed Forsaken. While this is not condemning on its own, it does provide some reason to not discount Mouse as a possible Lews candidate.

[Amber Vulture]

19 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Mouse would have have been able to take an action last cycle, as they were roleblocked C1. That's also the turn where the only kill was carried out by a claimed Forsaken. While this is not condemning on its own, it does provide some reason to not discount Mouse as a possible Lews candidate.

I typed Mouse when I meant that you would not have been able to kill Weasel last cycle. I'm currently discounting Mouse for having claimed female Forsaken, though that claim has yet to be proven by targeting another saidar user to my knowledge.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

With just a few hours left in the turn, we should start getting some votes down.

I will place a vote on Coral Swan. The reason for now is nothing more than instinct.

Also, we still need input from the following players:

@Melon Dingo

@Fuchsia Ostrich

@Emerald Falcon

@Cream Tuatara

@Coral Swan

[Fifth Scholar]

A little over two hours in the cycle. Please get any actions and votes in. 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Chartreuse Penguin I accept your reasoning. 

1 hour ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

With just a few hours left in the turn, we should start getting some votes down.

I will place a vote on Coral Swan. The reason for now is nothing more than instinct.

I don't have too many other suspicions at this point, and I trust you pretty solidly. I'll vote Coral Swan as well.

[Amber Vulture]

Remembering that Scorpion did claim a specific Forsaken, I'll remove that name from my temporary shortlist. Swan didn't post at all cycle 2, did anyone see evidence that they were around to kill Weasel? If so Swan is a viable lynch target, but otherwise I'd prefer someone else.

[Amber Vulture]

Hearing nothing and not being able to find any evidence either way, I suppose I'll vote for Swan as well.

[Fifth Scholar]

Cycle closed! I'll need a while to get everything straightened out, so please bear with me--I'm working from an actual computer, which is unusual for me.  

[Fifth Scholar]

Rahvin cast furtive glances about him as he stood in the tall grasses of the Amadician plain. A conspicuous target, should anyone be seeking to harm him, but it was a risk worth taking, in his estimation. He could have sworn that he almost saw Lews Therin seconds ago, as if the man had somehow allowed his Mask of Mirrors to slip. Very foolish, that would be—or very brave, perhaps, in the estimation of those Lews favoured. In any case, he readied his saidin, preparing to strike the man down should he see which of the faces looking up at him were, in fact, his compatriots, and which were working against the Great Lord. None of those considerations mattered, however, when he was struck from behind by a particularly potent weave, and his charred corpse made little sound as it hit the grass. 

---

Mesaana watched Rahvin fall forward, a vague look of displeasure on her face. Even if the man was not Lews Therin, he did look like he was about to strike the rest of them down given the first opportunity. Still, it was disappointing that more Chosen were dying without the Dragon being found. Amadicia was only so large—where was he? A scenario in which all of the Chosen had taken new forms just to slaughter each other to the last flashed into her mind, which she dismissed as folly. None of them would have come here if the Dragon had not been cornered. As with Rahvin, however, she had spent too much time in thought, and a sudden noise made her snap her head up; a dark figure raised its hands, and darkness itself fell over her vision. 

---

Coral Swan was lynched! 

Vote Count:

Swan (3): Vulture, Scorpion, Dragonfly

Fuchsia Ostrich was slain! She was Mesaana the Forsaken!

Magenta Albatross was slain! He was Rahvin the Forsaken! 

Cycle 4 has begun! It will end in about 47 hours, on Saturday 18 April at 9:00 PM EDT.

Please be mindful of your activity. Even if you are submitting orders, I enforce the inactivity filter from posts in-thread. As I did not make you all aware of this, I will not be killing anybody for it this cycle, but next cycle is a different matter. So please keep posting.  

Good luck!

[Player List]

Amber Vulture
Amethyst Scorpion
Azure Mouse
Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin
Coral Swan
Cream Tuatara
Emerald Falcon
Fuchsia Ostrich Mesaana
Indigo Weasel Aran’gar
Ivory Dragonfly
Magenta Albatross Rahvin
Mauve Crocodile Shaidar Haran
Melon Dingo

[Ivory Dragonfly]

It seems a majority lynch doesn't make any difference, unless @Coral Swan can confirm otherwise.

Anyone willing to claim those kills? Though, if the write-up was to be considered accurate, Ostrich killed Albatross and was then killed by Lews' Crew. Even without the write-up, I'd still suspect Ostrich of being dead as a result of Lews because of their claim as a female Forsaken, and thus less likely to draw suspicion away from him.

We should get the voting started early to avoid the same last-minute choice as last turn. I'll vote on Amber Vulture. They have been active and involved with hypothesizing, but has avoided taking the lead in a lot of ways.

Also, can I just say how difficult analysis is when I don't feel I have a good grasp of rules/roles/alliances? Now that we can be comfortable knowing it's a roleblock only, I'm more willing to lynch on a gut feeling.

[Amber Vulture]

7 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Anyone willing to claim those kills? Though, if the write-up was to be considered accurate, Ostrich killed Albatross and was then killed by Lews' Crew. Even without the write-up, I'd still suspect Ostrich of being dead as a result of Lews because of their claim as a female Forsaken, and thus less likely to draw suspicion away from him.

Albatross was killed by Tuatara and I weaving together.

[Charcoal Hyena]

1 hour ago, Amber Vulture said:

Albatross was killed by Tuatara and I weaving together.

Could you explain that? Weaving together? Is this a mechanic that only one or both of you have access to? 

Also, why Albatross?

[Chartreuse Penguin]

1 minute ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Could you explain that? Weaving together? Is this a mechanic that only one or both of you have access to?

Every channeler should have access to linking.  Assuming Fifth followed the lore, in order to link, you need a female channeler.  I believe you must have at least one more female than male channeler for any circle with the exception that M-F, M-M-F, M-M-F-F circles are possible.  And with the number of players, this is a moot point, but you must have a male channeler involved to go over 13 total channelers.