Rosharan Power Scaling and balance of power.

[Guest Edonidd]

I could be wrong, but I've kind of come away with the impression from what we've read so far that #1 we're in the start of what they call a desolation.  And #2 at what ends up being the end of each of the desolations in the past there is one last big battle with all the good guys vs all the bad guys.  So I just kinda cant stop thinking about what those looked like in the past.  What it might end up looking like in the future, and a brief consideration of what it would or would have looked like at the end of each book.

 

First I want to look at each army, and what they're made up of, so kinda want to spend some time on power scaling between combatants.

1.  Women, old men, and young children armed with kitchen knives, rakes, shovels, the ever popular pitchforks, and Dalinars famous poker.

2.  Untrained fighting age men, with stone age weaponry.  Probably each is twice as strong as the above.

3.  Untrained fighting age men fully equipped with "modern" weapons and armor.  Probably again 2x1 to above.

4.  Untrained listeners/singers/parshendi/parshmen in war form.  I'm thinking slightly above humans.

5.  fully trained, fully armed and armored veterans as on the shattered plains. 

6.  Fully trained Singers in war form.

7.  Single share holders.  Either plate or blade.  I'm thinking 50 fully trained veterans with nets and ropes etc wouldn't have a chance, but 100 would probably be pretty close to a guarantee.  In my head a single average shard holder is worth about 75 or so elite veterans.  With the caveat that some like Adolin or Dalinar would be tougher.

8.  Full shard bearers with (dead) blade and plate.  At least 3 to 1 of above, if not more.  At least several hundred elite veteran soldiers.

9.  Radiant squires or radiants ot the 1st ot 2nd ideal.  Maybe not head to head with a full shardbearer (although I would expect that from bridge 4 windrunner squires) but I think squires or proto-radiants have the same net worth on the battle field.

10.  Fused.  From what we've seen so far, the fused seem to be well above a full shard bearer or any squire with stormlight.  Although we saw them send 4 to take on Moash and Graves who weren't wearing their plate. 

11.  Radiants without plate.  Since that's all we've seen so far.  Kaladin could easily destroy a fused 1x1 but couldn't quite focus one down and even the odds when fighting several at once.  Shallan doesn't have quite as much concentrated power, but her surges multiply the strength of the army with her.  Big picture wise she might have been worth more than any 1 other Radiant.  Jesnah was a 1 woman wrecking crew out there when we saw her.  And then Dalinar... damnation.

12.  Human with an honor blade.  From what we have seen this might be weaker than a radiant with his blade, but I think that was just due to the user.  As the series progresses I expect honor blades to prove to be significantly stronger than what we've seen.

13.  Thunderclasts.  Probably not possible for a normal human or singer to kill.  Requires surges, shards, honor blades, or radiants to kill.

14.  Unmade.  Hard to quantify just how high on the list to put them.  Amaram, midnight mother, etc. They seem to be all across the board.  While Shallan scared one away by understanding it or whatever, midnight essence copies are way more powerful than her illusions in a large scale fight.  And I already admitted her illusions might have been the most help at Thaylen city.

15-20. I could probably already put full radiants on the list, because I think we have a good idea of what plate adds to the equation.  But we haven't actually seen it.  Heralds with their blades are supposed to be considerably above even full radiants.  In fact I believe it was Ishar who threatened to personally destroy each and every radiant if they didn't agree to be bound by laws of some sort.  We have no idea what Heralds can do, but at least one seems to have died in every desolation. The Aimians.  We've seen a single dysian Aimian have 0 trouble with a couple of skybreaker squires.  We've also seen that in the past they fought on the good guys side, and its implied they were able to be killed in one of the visions.  No actual idea what either species of Aimian can do.  Rysn's Larkin.  We've been hunted at by Brandon that killing off great shells would have a bigger impact.  Maybe they would have been on our side?  Maybe this Larkin grows up to be the flying chasmfiend slash dragon that eats investiture and maybe it doesn't.  But already sucking the voidlight from some fused so Rysn could kill it was pretty bad chull.

 

Ok, so imagining past desolations... I dont see how they were so bad.  There's obviously more to come out about Odiums side.  Because 10 Heralds with 10 honor blades, Aimians on our side, hundreds of full radiants, plus way more squires.  From what we've seen, this seems like a cake walk.

Present desolations - well after book 1 it would have been us vs  no one.  After book 2 it  was  storm form and an everstorm vs 2-3 alethi high princes.  After book 3 it's what 5-6 alethi high princes, some Thaylens, and possibly some Azir with maybe 10 radiants vs all the fused, a herald, all but 1 skybreaker plus 1 alethi high prince and possibly Kharbranth and Jah Keved too.  Our odds are certainly getting worse.

[Naurock]

7 hours ago, Edonidd said:

2.  Untrained fighting age men, with stone age weaponry.  Probably each is twice as strong as the above.

3.  Untrained fighting age men fully equipped with "modern" weapons and armor.  Probably again 2x1 to above.

Minor quibbles here. I wouldn't double it here. Untrained people given better weapons isn't a huge step up. I think most of the men in Amaram's army wore leather. Thick leather will help pad you, but a direct blow with anything sharp will cut through.

7 hours ago, Edonidd said:

7.  Single share holders.  Either plate or blade.  I'm thinking 50 fully trained veterans with nets and ropes etc wouldn't have a chance, but 100 would probably be pretty close to a guarantee.  In my head a single average shard holder is worth about 75 or so elite veterans.

I'd separate shard holders here into two steps. A Shardblade is useful, but a squad of archers could drop them. Shardplate alone requires constant heavy damage to break.

7 hours ago, Edonidd said:

Ok, so imagining past desolations... I dont see how they were so bad.  There's obviously more to come out about Odiums side.

The second sentence is key. We don't know what the other Unmade do, and supposedly the best fighters in Odium's army have yet to awaken. Also, as it's been brought up before. It used to be a Fused died and they went back to Braize. Now they die and just reinhabit a new Singer body during the Everstorm. The function limiting their army is broken. So if following your scale it allows members of their army to jump from 4 to 10 at will.

7 hours ago, Edonidd said:

12.  Human with an honor blade.

I don't think any Heralds during a desolation would ever hand their weapon to some random person and said "Hey, go try it out." And when they die their blade goes with them to Braize.

The first desolation was probably one of the worst, because Spren didn't bond humans until later. They also never had dead shards during the previous desolations. Spren saw and mimicked the Honorblade bond. We haven't seen the abilities of a Full Radiant yet. We haven't seen the full abilities of a Herald, either. But if you're familiar with Mistborn Era 1:

Quote

Questioner

Does Odium actually present a real threat to Harmony, because he-- *interrupted*

Brandon Sanderson

So Harmony is vastly more powerful than Odium.

Questioner

Yeah. 

Brandon Sanderson

Elend was vastly more powerful than Vin. Who would win in a fight?

Questioner

Vin.

Brandon Sanderson

Okay, there's your answer.

source

The Heralds, if they choose to fight, understand what their enemies abilities, and have a tons of battle experience on their side. The Kaladin vs Fused fight was him constantly getting blindsided by abilities. Roshar needs more Radiants fast. They need to be coordinated. They're also currently being undermined.

Think of the conversation between Taravangian and Dalinar. Taravangian is willing to do anything with full conviction as long as he believes it will provide the outcome he desires. Dalinar is trying to inspire, despite decades of a poor track record, and rumors attempting to ruin his reputation. 

[Guest Edonidd]

1 hour ago, Naurock said:

Minor quibbles here. I wouldn't double it here. Untrained people given better weapons isn't a huge step up. I think most of the men in Amaram's army wore leather. Thick leather will help pad you, but a direct blow with anything sharp will cut through.

I'd separate shard holders here into two steps. A Shardblade is useful, but a squad of archers could drop them. Shardplate alone requires constant heavy damage to break.

The second sentence is key. We don't know what the other Unmade do, and supposedly the best fighters in Odium's army have yet to awaken. Also, as it's been brought up before. It used to be a Fused died and they went back to Braize. Now they die and just reinhabit a new Singer body during the Everstorm. The function limiting their army is broken. So if following your scale it allows members of their army to jump from 4 to 10 at will.

I don't think any Heralds during a desolation would ever hand their weapon to some random person and said "Hey, go try it out." And when they die their blade goes with them to Braize.

The first desolation was probably one of the worst, because Spren didn't bond humans until later. They also never had dead shards during the previous desolations. Spren saw and mimicked the Honorblade bond. We haven't seen the abilities of a Full Radiant yet. We haven't seen the full abilities of a Herald, either. But if you're familiar with Mistborn Era 1:

The Heralds, if they choose to fight, understand what their enemies abilities, and have a tons of battle experience on their side. The Kaladin vs Fused fight was him constantly getting blindsided by abilities. Roshar needs more Radiants fast. They need to be coordinated. They're also currently being undermined.

Think of the conversation between Taravangian and Dalinar. Taravangian is willing to do anything with full conviction as long as he believes it will provide the outcome he desires. Dalinar is trying to inspire, despite decades of a poor track record, and rumors attempting to ruin his reputation. 

I can agree with your first point that maybe not 2 for 1.  But it's at least 1.5.  I think you'd be surprised how much leather armor helps compared to the wild men with stone weapons in one of Dalinars visions.

I agree that plate protects you better than a blade.  But a blade kills faster and better than plate.  I see them as kind of separate but equal.

That was a point I meant to make.  In those past desolations not only were there 10 heralds and a full radiant order (at least after the first couple) but the fused also couldn't come back.  Obviously a desolation  was always a serious thing, and also obviously a last battle type scenario is also going to be a big deal.  But from what we've seen so far of the power scaling that I roughly etched out, it just doesn't feel like the good guys were ever in danger of losing. 

No.  Honor blades in human hands is definitely a new thing.  But it just feels like something Sanderson will explore further.  Especially since the Blackthorn has been told by the Stormfather that he wont be one a blade and Dalinar isn't allowed to hold a dead blade.  So obviously he either ends up with an Honor blade or....

I should have included Nightblood on that list somewhere.  Like "dead" shards and humans holding honor blades this is something new to this desolation.  I'm not sure if I like him in Dalinars hands more or less than an honor blade.  And I'm not even sure if he brings more or less to the table than one of those.  But an investiture eating permanent fused killer has got to affect the balance of power somewhat.

 

 

Even with so many things going against them currently though, it feels like if Kaladin just had the full bridge 4 with him it would have been an almost easy fight.  I just wanted to get other people opinion about how they felt the powers scaled up, and if people disagreed with my assessment of how easy things seemed with our current knowledge?

[Naurock]

@Edonidd I am pretty aware of how well leather works. I ride a motorcycle and went down once going about 15 mph (idiot in front of me hit their brakes for no reason and my front brake locked up). My leg was torn up, but my leather jacket still works great and my arm, ribs and shoulder were fine, not even a bruise. It will protect from some cuts but a direct stab won't be stopped. I can't imagine it would do so well being clubbed with a carapace weapon wielded by a Fused.

If I had the option of Shardplate or a Blade I'd personally take the Shardplate. Especially if fighting a Fused. 

4 hours ago, Edonidd said:

Obviously a desolation  was always a serious thing, and also obviously a last battle type scenario is also going to be a big deal.  But from what we've seen so far of the power scaling that I roughly etched out, it just doesn't feel like the good guys were ever in danger of losing. 

From what we've seen so far, I thought this for a moment. But we haven't seen Ba-Ado-Mishram and her "General like" abilities, or seen what Chemoarish or Dai-Gonarthis does. A small group of Skybreakers, which know division, is bad news for the Humans. In previous desolations when it was a known enemy and tactics, I agree with you. But at that time also, Odium was perfectly happy wearing down the Heralds, thinning the number of humans and playing the long game.

[Juanaton he/him]

15 hours ago, Naurock said:

If I had the option of Shardplate or a Blade I'd personally take the Shardplate. 

Dalinar agrees with you, so that's probably a point in your favor here. Admittedly, this is his opinion during the fight in which he won his blade so he didn't have one yet, but he literally points out that one solid hit from him ends the fight in his favor, while it will take the blade repeated solid hits to cause him problems...it's still not an easy fight thanks to the reach of the blade, and he might not be the best "average shard plate user" to use as a baseline, but he rates plate as the more useful of the two.

[Naurock]

5 minutes ago, Juanaton said:

Dalinar agrees with you, so that's probably a point in your favor here.

This is mostly what has formed my thought process.

But here's more from my thought process: I can attempt to learn many stances to swing a gigantic, clunky sword, that will mostly be useless fighting flying, frictionless, and regrowing monsters. OR I can put on a suit that turns me into the Hulk that resists being lashed. One lucky punch to the chest may crush their gemheart. I could stand away from them hucking basketball sized rocks at over MLB pitcher speeds. I would easily take Shardplate.

[Ripheus23]

On 9/2/2018 at 0:02 PM, Edonidd said:

That was a point I meant to make.  In those past desolations not only were there 10 heralds and a full radiant order (at least after the first couple) but the fused also couldn't come back.  Obviously a desolation  was always a serious thing, and also obviously a last battle type scenario is also going to be a big deal.  But from what we've seen so far of the power scaling that I roughly etched out, it just doesn't feel like the good guys were ever in danger of losing. 

In Miyazaki's Nausicaa graphic novels, at one point a horde of the insects go on a crusade and "accidentally" devastate the world. I feel like Odium might be gunning to do something to provoke a "greatshell stampede," like maybe one of the Unmade causes a Thrill-like effect on gemhearted animals, or they can be incited to mass violence elsewise, or whatever.

[Thurin he/him]

On 3-9-2018 at 5:46 PM, Naurock said:

But here's more from my thought process: I can attempt to learn many stances to swing a gigantic, clunky sword, that will mostly be useless fighting flying, frictionless, and regrowing monsters. OR I can put on a suit that turns me into the Hulk that resists being lashed. One lucky punch to the chest may crush their gemheart. I could stand away from them hucking basketball sized rocks at over MLB pitcher speeds. I would easily take Shardplate.

Perhaps that is the reason why shardblade is acquired 'already' at the third ideal but shardplate requires the fourth ideal/is acquired later

Edited September 6, 2018 by Thurin

[Nymeros]

On 9/2/2018 at 3:02 PM, Edonidd said:

That was a point I meant to make.  In those past desolations not only were there 10 heralds and a full radiant order (at least after the first couple) but the fused also couldn't come back. 

A quibble: it likely took more than a couple of Desolations for the Radiants to form. We needed time for the Heralds to form and fight, then time for spren to grasp and copy the Honorblades, then we have a period lasting for hundreds of years when rogue surgebinders caused trouble, and when they did form and fight it was during the period when humanity had less and less time to recover when they would be more sorely needed.

Quote

Even with so many things going against them currently though, it feels like if Kaladin just had the full bridge 4 with him it would have been an almost easy fight.  I just wanted to get other people opinion about how they felt the powers scaled up, and if people disagreed with my assessment of how easy things seemed with our current knowledge?

People definitely agree with you. Its hard to see how Desolations were near extinction level events or how Herald consistently fell in battle......Im eager to see what forces Odium can bring to bear: Odiums "best fighters," voidbinding, the full force of the Unmade and whatever else he has hiding.