Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Magenta Albatross]

So we didn't get a tie and and two votes were soothed, one claimed by Ivory and another unknown. Mouse has offered an explanation but it could be said by both an elim or village. I do think there's a chance that elims try to frame mouse but I will put my vote here for now. Mouse.

I should be back on later and look a bit more in depth at all this. Currently trusting only Ivory and heron. Elephant and kangaroo to some extent. I'm open to lynches outside of these but I suggest Toucan. Don't know how to feel about scorpion at this point.

[Mint Heron]

If this was early or mid game I'd want a Mouse lynch just to get all of the information it would provide, but it's too late in the game to risk it now >>

After looking over Scorpion's posts, I get the feeling that he's not very engaged in the game -- perhaps because he already knows everybody's alignments? He hasn't said very much of use to the game, and his reasoning has generally been weak. Scorpion.

I know that's not a very thorough analysis, but I have a paper to finish that I've spent far too long putting off in favour of SE. I'll check back inthread later, but don't expect too much from me.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

9 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

If this was early or mid game I'd want a Mouse lynch just to get all of the information it would provide, but it's too late in the game to risk it now >>

After looking over Scorpion's posts, I get the feeling that he's not very engaged in the game -- perhaps because he already knows everybody's alignments? He hasn't said very much of use to the game, and his reasoning has generally been weak. Scorpion.

I know that's not a very thorough analysis, but I have a paper to finish that I've spent far too long putting off in favour of SE. I'll check back inthread later, but don't expect too much from me.

Gee thanks.

[Mauve Crocodile]

Ah! I've been really busy!

Scanning throguh the thread, and collecting my thoughts, my most dangerous read has to be Axotal they had a voting system that was quite wrong, and we still haven't learned about, and haven't said anything to defend themself, as of yet. 

If we get a decent amount of info on Axotal then I'll be willing to switch, but as it stands I'll be keeping my vote here. I should be able to check in 2 times before the cycle ends, and give my responses then.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

(Yes, I know that this post is a whole lot longer than you're used to from me, but this is what happens when I actually get a decent chunk of free time.)

I think this recent vote surge on Axolotl could be an elim plot: there's not really any meat behind it--even less than the reasoning I gave--just that Axolotl isn't sharing secrets and they've been wrong. Well, if you're really looking to lynch someone for being wrong, look no further than Dragonfly, so I'm suspicious of those using that reasoning and then voting Axolotl. @Mauve Crocodile @Amethyst Scorpion I urge you to reconsider your votes, or at least explain why it is better to vote Axolotl than Dragonfly if they've both been equally wrong.

Right now I'm reading heavily village on Mint Heron. They're obviously putting in the time to give us the best chance possible, and their large post today in particular is telling that they're invested in the game and interested in getting analysis out there. Later on I'm even going to vote along with Heron.

I'm seeing a lot of discussion about Zebra but I can't even recall a single post of theirs, so I must not have found them too notable.

Now we get to Mouse. I've very conflicted here: all of the evidence that I need is there for a lynch on them, but at the same time why would the elims be so blatantly obvious with the manipulation? (I say the elims because I think a village manipulator would have claimed by now.) If I were an elim, I wouldn't drop manipulation like that unless I was sure that there wouldn't be another opportunity to lynch my teammate. I'm not seeing any signs of a team voting as a block--other than maybe this Axolotl lynch--so that's one point in favor of the "Mouse was framed" theory. I believe it was LG25 that the elims got access to a bunch of vote manipulation, and used it to save villagers from the lynch in order to frame them. It worked then, so why not now? That's what's making me hesitant to lynch Mouse. Another point in Mouse's favor is that the elim kill tells us that Falcon was a villager, and I doubt an elim would support a kill that made them less credible. I hate to flip-flop on Mouse this late in the game, but I think he was framed, both by the vote manipulation and then by the elim kill. It's just too convenient of a case against him.

I'm going to go along with Heron and vote on Scorpion for a few reasons:

1. Lynches slide off of Scorpion like he's covered in grease. Yes, I know I've been guilty for some of it, voting on him for his playstyle and then changing my vote to more logical suspicions, but maybe it's time that I follow this gut read through.

2. As Heron pointed out, Scorpion doesn't look very involved in the game. I know that's an elim tell for some players, because it came up in LG36 (I think?? It was a Mistborn game where the last 2 elims were Meta and Sart). Elims sometimes lose interest in the game because they already know the game state, feel little pressure to contribute, and have a team that'll keep working towards their win con without them.

3. That vote on Axolotl. As I said above, reasons for an Axolotl lynch are tenuous at best with Dragonfly still alive.

4. Scorpion's self-preservation votes have a strange habit of falling on villagers. Now that's a good cover for an elim who's aroused suspicion: just announce "I know I'm village but I don't know about them" and all of a sudden you have free license to vote on basically anybody. Then again, a lot of votes are falling on nobody but villagers...

5. IIRC Scorpion made an accusation of Dragonfly that was unpopular, but they ended up getting a few trust reads out of it because an elim couldn't have been that risky, could they? Thing is, Scorpion is looking more and more like an aggressive player like I am. I know I've been taken by that fallacy in the past, assuming that an elim wouldn't accuse a trusted villager. It's bitten me in the butt in at least one past game.

Tomorrow I'm up early and off to uni with a big test in two days, so don't expect too much more out of me. Good luck, ladies and gents!

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Update on vote count: 

3- Mouse: Dragonfly, Albatross, Elephant

2- Axolotl: Crocodile, Scorpion

2- Scorpion: Heron, Ostrich 

Okay, Ostrich raises some interesting points. She says the vote on Axolotl looks like an effort to save Scorpion. This is very true, and I don’t like the players on that side of the lynch. However, the Scorpion lynch also has the potential to swing us away from Mouse. Just something to keep in mind. 

Village read on Heron. Fairly NAI at this point unless Heron flips elim. 

Brings up a bunch of evidence to indicate Mouse was framed. While the evidence is good, why are you so seemingly desperate to prove to the village that he was framed? Plus, I still have a feeling that we’re not going deep enough with our IKYK. The Elims knew the vote would draw suspicion on Mouse. They also know we’re not analyzing anything past the first level or so. I think they’re banking on the fact that we’ll go the first level and convince ourselves that Mouse was framed, but go no further and not see that the Elims could be framing elim!Mouse, ironically, to draw suspicion away from him. 

Points against Scorpion:

1) lynch-bouncing: I’ve been responsible for some of this, especially the soothed vote last round. I obviously wish I hadn’t, but it’s a bit late to go back and fix it. 

2) I’d say Scorpion is more involved in the game than half of the people in it. His playstyle just isn’t one for deep analysis. 

3) Agreed.

4) I’d say this is NAI. Every vote cast to lynch a player has fallen on a villager. Including mine. 

5) Agree, and this is why I kind of re-suspect Scorpion. We aren’t going enough levels of IKYK, and it’s costing us. I still think it’s costing us with Mouse, too.

While the Scorpion lynch isn’t a terrible one, I still think we’re being played something good here by the Elims on Mouse. I may be paranoid. But if this is a framing, it’s also a bit obvious. It’s too easy to assume Mouse was framed. 

I am publicly announcing that I am soothing a vote off either Scorpion or Axolotl. I’m not saying which one, as I’d like to keep it so that the Elims are unsure about the vote tally. I have to go to school now, and will be back post-rollover. Lynch the right person, please. Or this game is over.

Oh, something that just occurred to me: Don’t trust Chameleon if Scorpion flips elim, because he’s been PMing me asking me to take votes off him, and defending him in general. So if Scorpion is lynched, and is elim, Chameleon should be next in line for the noose. 

[Sunburst Toucan]

"Some good points have been made against Scorpion, but there's one thing that stands against it, and suggests that he is either innocent, or a co-conspirator of Nolan. Remember that  yesterday there where three people up for the lynch. If we assume that only the mouse vote was a soothing done by the muyrderers, and that Scorpion is a murderer, then they, as far as they knew, effectively increased the chance of scorpion getting lynched by removing mouse from the vote, and that doesn't make sense to me. The only situation in which it would make sense is if they knew that Nolan would be using his powers t remove a vote from Scorpion."

"No, if there was a murderer among those up for the lynch yesterday, it has got to be mouse. Using a power to frame a villager is all well and good, but using it to save a team-mate is better. Of course, there's also the possibility of Nolan and Scorpion being co-conspirators, but int hat case we're probably done for anyway, as the murderers likely have enough vote manipulation to end us today."

[Amethyst Scorpion]

6 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

1. Lynches slide off of Scorpion like he's covered in grease. Yes, I know I've been guilty for some of it, voting on him for his playstyle and then changing my vote to more logical suspicions, but maybe it's time that I follow this gut read through.

2. As Heron pointed out, Scorpion doesn't look very involved in the game. I know that's an elim tell for some players, because it came up in LG36 (I think?? It was a Mistborn game where the last 2 elims were Meta and Sart). Elims sometimes lose interest in the game because they already know the game state, feel little pressure to contribute, and have a team that'll keep working towards their win con without them.

3. That vote on Axolotl. As I said above, reasons for an Axolotl lynch are tenuous at best with Dragonfly still alive.

4. Scorpion's self-preservation votes have a strange habit of falling on villagers. Now that's a good cover for an elim who's aroused suspicion: just announce "I know I'm village but I don't know about them" and all of a sudden you have free license to vote on basically anybody. Then again, a lot of votes are falling on nobody but villagers...

5. IIRC Scorpion made an accusation of Dragonfly that was unpopular, but they ended up getting a few trust reads out of it because an elim couldn't have been that risky, could they? Thing is, Scorpion is looking more and more like an aggressive player like I am. I know I've been taken by that fallacy in the past, assuming that an elim wouldn't accuse a trusted villager. It's bitten me in the butt in at least one past game.

Huh, so, I have some time and I feel like actually responding, so here goes.

1. Yeah, I'm rather relieved none of the lynches have stuck, though remember that I was tied for the lynch last time around, so it's not like I'm just completely being ignored either. I think the problem is that no one has any more than a gut read on me, or dislike of my play style.  

2. As Dragonfly said, I'm involved in the game, I'm just not sitting here analyzing play styles and posts heavily, and I don't really care to be told I'm playing badly for it (you can like or dislike my results, but let me play the game the way I think is fun). (Thanks, Dragonfly, though as noted, I still worry about you.  I'd rather go for someone else now who I think we can get a lynch on, though, since so many people act like they trust you.)

3. I think it's clear why I went for Axolotl instead of Dragonfly…

4. Everyone's votes have been having a strange habit of falling on villagers.  It's almost like, I don't know, there are more villagers than Elims?  Yeah, that's a ridiculous argument and you know it.

5. I am an aggressive player, at least some of the time.  Were I an Elim, I wouldn't hesitate to lynch a teammate to gain trust, though only if it truly made sense.  When I've been an Elim, I usually post in the thread before I even look at the Elim doc so my posts don't repeat any points made there, and I seem just like any other villager.  That said, I obviously don't really have that much trust built up either, despite that, so either it was a failed move or it was genuine, right?  It was genuine, and the fact I keep bringing it up should make that clear.

[Azure Mouse]

Bah. Worst time to have a busy two days. And now it's late. Unless Dragonfly is an elim, which I don't think they are, or for some reason they were hoping for someone to counter claim him about soothing a vote off Scorpion (which seems incredibly unlikely), I feel like that lynch, with Vulture being a villager, was way too close for Scorpion to have be an eliminator, meaning I feel less inclined to lynch Scorpion. I will opt for Axolotl, based on the weirdness of possibly trying for a late RNG lynch... Seems off, though I'm tired, so I may change it if I'm any more awake before end of cycle.

[Mint Heron]

Vote Tally:

Mouse (4): Nolan (Dragonfly) <1>, Elephant <1>, Albatross <1>, Kharsis <2>
Axolotl (3): Scorpion <1>, Crocodile <1>, Axolotl <1>
Scorpion (2): Kharsis (Heron) <1>, Ostrich <1>, Mouse <1>

Scorpion, Mouse. I wanted to see if any other lynches would rise in response to the Mouse one. At this point in the game the village:Sympathiser ratio is so low that I assume that any major lynch movement will lean that the Sympathisers are behind it in some way, while any lynch stagnation was because the Sympathisers were happy with where the votes were. That's actually why I parked my vote on Scorpion, to see if diversifying the lynch options would provoke a response. While the Axolotl and Scorpion lynches might be village-driven, this is all happening in the back end of the cycle, so I'm warier of it. As the Mouse Soother hasn't claimed yet, I'm inclined to think that they're evil, and as Vanna (Toucan) said above, an evil Soother matches more with a Sympathiser Mouse situation than a Sympathiser Scorpion one.

[Mauve Crocodile]

7 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I think this recent vote surge on Axolotl could be an elim plot: there's not really any meat behind it--even less than the reasoning I gave--just that Axolotl isn't sharing secrets and they've been wrong. Well, if you're really looking to lynch someone for being wrong, look no further than Dragonfly, so I'm suspicious of those using that reasoning and then voting Axolotl. @Mauve Crocodile @Amethyst Scorpion I urge you to reconsider your votes, or at least explain why it is better to vote Axolotl than Dragonfly if they've both been equally wrong.

Dragonfly is actively participating, and seems to be much more useful. Without actual explanation for how the voting system worked, it could have been a play to convince the village that they had real reasoning for voting on people, without actually having it. As soon as we get an actual explanation I will be willing to take the vote off, but I feel like Axolotl is currently just hiding, hoping that suspicion will fall off.

Updated votes:

[Redacted. Storming Heron!]

 

We could have someone vote Scorpion and then just leave it up to RNG/vote manip. It would be fun, at the very least... 
In reality, please no one do that. It would not end well for us, as it would leave the lynch in the hands of Dragonfly and whoever has the other vote manip(s).

We still have 5 players who have yet to vote today, and we need all of the votes that we can get!

 

And Heron changed it...

[Mint Heron]

44 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Updated votes:

[Redacted. Storming Heron!]

Sorry not sorry  If it helps, my vote tally is accurate up to my vote?

[Sunburst Toucan]

I'm voting on Mouse. I've been considering between Axolotl and mouse, but Axolotl's breakdown in the earlier days is not the kind I'd expect from someone that had a group of trusted allies to talk to and discuss with. I've said before that I'm seeing Mouse as being in a similar situation to Weasel, and that's still true. However, we need to get to the bottom of what happened yesterday, or that's something that will continue being a distraction.

[Mint Heron]

Friendly reminder that there's a possibility of a last-minute hammer. If we have five Sympathisers, they could contest the Mouse lynch by creating a tie. If we have six Sympathisers, they could potentially lynch anyone of their choice, and that's not even taking into account their vote manipulation. I hope that Nolan's Soothe and the Sympathiser Soothe will cancel each other out, but as Titus Maccius Plautus says, "Things which you do not hope happen more frequently than things which you do hope."

If possible I'd like everyone to be online around rollover, to be able to counter any possible last-minute swings. The last thing we want is to be about to lynch a Sympathiser but have the lynch forcibly redirected at the last moment >>

[Violet Axolotl]

My apologizes, I meant to post much earlier but got caught up in things.

Seeing how everyone wants to know of my system and since it didn't work, I might as well make the reveal.

Profiles!  Yep, I used profiles.  And the reason I couldn't reveal this was because it would reveal me as ... Alv.  Yes, the Axo you love to be suspicious of is none other than the great Alv.  And yes, I know last cycle I said I wasn't Vron and that is true.  I am Alv.  Only Aonar called me Vron and he hasn't done it in a while. (I do miss that by the way Aonar.  It was unique to you and made you stand out.)

Now then, on to the system.  What I did is go through my profiles and collect every LG Elim stat.  How often they would post, if they voted on a fellow Elim, how many votes they made per cycle, their post to vote ratio, everything.  I then took the average number of each to create a typical LG Elim profile template.  Then I took all the stats for players this game and compared them to the template.  Weasel was the closest match.  A 87% match in fact.  As such, I felt he was the best bet for Elimness.

I do still think Mouse is evil even if my profile template isn't as accurate as I would like.

[Magenta Albatross]

Okay are we staying on mouse? The lack of a competing wagon is making me a bit wary now.

[Mint Heron]

9 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Okay are we staying on mouse? The lack of a competing wagon is making me a bit wary now.

Same :S But we need to have a lynch that has at least six votes on it, otherwise we leave the lynch open for the Sumpathisers to potentially pull a hammer on any villager they want, and it's unlikely that we could have do that this close to rollover. The way I see it we can either lynch someone who might be a Sympathiser or be forced to lynch someone who for sure is not a Sympathiser. It's not ideal, but what in SE ever is?

30 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

My apologizes, I meant to post much earlier but got caught up in things.

Seeing how everyone wants to know of my system and since it didn't work, I might as well make the reveal.

Profiles!  Yep, I used profiles.  And the reason I couldn't reveal this was because it would reveal me as ... Alv.  Yes, the Axo you love to be suspicious of is none other than the great Alv.  And yes, I know last cycle I said I wasn't Vron and that is true.  I am Alv.  Only Aonar called me Vron and he hasn't done it in a while. (I do miss that by the way Aonar.  It was unique to you and made you stand out.)

Hi Sarge

[Magenta Albatross]

15 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Same :S But we need to have a lynch that has at least six votes on it, otherwise we leave the lynch open for the Sumpathisers to potentially pull a hammer on any villager they want, and it's unlikely that we could have do that this close to rollover. The way I see it we can either lynch someone who might be a Sympathiser or be forced to lynch someone who for sure is not a Sympathiser. It's not ideal, but what in SE ever is?

Hi Sarge

Phew made it back.

I wanted to say that the toucan vote has been giving me really really bad pings. Toucan. Any chance of this happening?

@Mint Heron @Ivory Dragonfly

Edited February 5, 2018 by Magenta Albatross

[Violet Axolotl]

4 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I wanted to say that the toucan vote has been giving me really really bad pings. Toucan. Any chance of this happening?

Given there is 19 minutes left, I highly doubt it for this cycle.

[Magenta Albatross]

2 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Given there is 19 minutes left, I highly doubt it for this cycle.

Okay It's rather close now. I guess we stay on Mouse then.

[Sunburst Toucan]

Tension permeated the air. Villagers where looking at eachother suspiciously. It seemed like everyone was waiting for something to happen. Vanna wasn't sure what she feared more, the sudden rush of the murderers trying to break mouse free, or the lack of such an attempt.

[Sage Kangaroo]

51 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

My apologizes, I meant to post much earlier but got caught up in things.

Seeing how everyone wants to know of my system and since it didn't work, I might as well make the reveal.

Profiles!  Yep, I used profiles.  And the reason I couldn't reveal this was because it would reveal me as ... Alv.  Yes, the Axo you love to be suspicious of is none other than the great Alv.  And yes, I know last cycle I said I wasn't Vron and that is true.  I am Alv.  Only Aonar called me Vron and he hasn't done it in a while. (I do miss that by the way Aonar.  It was unique to you and made you stand out.)

Now then, on to the system.  What I did is go through my profiles and collect every LG Elim stat.  How often they would post, if they voted on a fellow Elim, how many votes they made per cycle, their post to vote ratio, everything.  I then took the average number of each to create a typical LG Elim profile template.  Then I took all the stats for players this game and compared them to the template.  Weasel was the closest match.  A 87% match in fact.  As such, I felt he was the best bet for Elimness.

I do still think Mouse is evil even if my profile template isn't as accurate as I would like.

Uh.  Wow.  Ok then.  That's pretty impressive.  I wish I had that much time or commitment to actually getting something done.  I really don't.  I'm not exactly sure how accurate that would be, though, given all the variables.  I mean, clearly it's a bit off.  I do wonder, though, what it would look like compared to the Village statistic.  

Hello Alv.  With any luck, I'll be at least two for two now.  

Violet Axolotl.

[Sapphire Elephant]

4 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Okay It's rather close now. I guess we stay on Mouse then.

Heh - that's touching. You really are trying, aren't you?

Mouse

Axolotl

Can't have algorithms and systems fouling things up at this late stage

[Mint Heron]

Boody hell. This is the last minute hammer, isn't it?

Edited February 5, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Magenta Albatross]

wait what?