The Cycle of Desolations

[dendrophobe he/him]

I was just reading over a Q&A transcript from a signing, and came across this:

 

Q: Roshar has three moons that orbit it, and I notice that these orbits somewhat collide. I was wondering if the moons have anything to do with...

A: The moons are a little bit of a hint, but it’s not about what you’re thinking. They are not in a stable orbit on astronomical terms. They’ll last tens of thousands of years before they degrade. But it is a little bit of a hint of things. The fact that Roshar has three moons in a very specific orbit is a hint about things.

 

This seems like something of a confirmation to me that Desolations probably occur at a certain alignment of the moons.  Especially given that Braize is where the Heralds hang out (or get tortured. Semantics) between Desolations, and is where Odium is trapped.

Thoughts? Has this been considered or confirmed somewhere I haven't seen it?

 

Edit: I now see a thread with the same quote, referring to interaction with Highstorms. That's probably more likely, as the orbits of moons are probably too short to make such an alignment a once-in-four-thousand-years occurrence.

Edited May 5, 2017 by dendrophobe

[Yata he/him]

So do you think a Desolation start at the first "right alignment" after one of the Heralds broke under torture ?

It's a bit too complex, but I can't think to some counterproof.

Maybe I have to check if Taln's return or the Everstorm's summon happens while the moons were in peculiar positions

[CaptainRyan he/him]

Hmm, the moons are linked to the Desolations? It is possible I imagine but I am not sure what other evidence exists.

My interpretation of that particular WoB is that the three moons, in decaying orbits, was a hint about the Shards and how they have been influencing/changing/meddling in the Roshar system. Those orbits are, most likely, artificial and therefore are a hint that an outside power is doing something. Just my guess on it. 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

2 hours ago, dendrophobe said:

That's probably more likely, as the orbits of moons are probably too short to make such an alignment a once-in-four-thousand-years occurrence.

Earlier Desolations were far less than 4,000 years apart. The prelude in WoK(Final Desolation of the old story) took place 6000 years after the Shattering [2], and Odium had to kill off D&D and Ambition before getting trapped on Roshar. Even if there were only 2 Desolations, they couldn't be more than 1500 years apart.

While this makes the moons theory more viable as the orbits don't have to be as long as the 4k number, it makes that one all the more nebulous for the idea

[Spoolofwhool]

I agree that the cycle of Desolations is not tied to the cycle of the moons for the reasons stated above. There's also another reason I'd like to add.

Another Desolation would start immediately if the Heralds didn't leave Roshar. Unless this somehow modified the phases of the moon to cause another alignment, it seems fairly likely that's not the case.

Quote

QUESTION ()

What caused a Desolation to end? Was it just the defeat of Odium's forces? Because the Desolations start when the Heralds break under torture.

BRANDON SANDERSON

Because the Heralds can no longer be in existence. There is a certain period of time that they can be there, and after that, if they're there, they will start a new one. So the Heralds do need to leave for a Desolation to end.

QUESTION

Oh. So they've got a time limit.

BRANDON SANDERSON

They do. Otherwise the Desolation will start again. What they discovered is not all of them have to. As long as one remains, the Desolation will not start again.

QUESTION

So, by the nine leaving, did that actually break the Oathpact for them? Did it change the cycle of Desolations?

BRANDON SANDERSON

They have not completely broken the Oathpact, despite what they may think.

[Source]