Valtak Posted January 25, 2017 Posted January 25, 2017 I have been reading some discussions about stormwardens, and I wanted to make a new thread so we could discuss what it is they actually do. We know that they are basically the mathematicians of Roshar. In the olden days here on earth, a common pursuit among mathematicians was mathematically modeling the heavens - figuring out planets orbits and the like. The stormwardens were founded to predict highstorms. Where do these two things connect? As I assume many of you here did, I grew up reading a lot of fantasy. Among my favorite stories were Anne McCaffrey's dragonriders of Pern novels. In these books, an important theme is that there was a "red star" (another planet in the system) that, when getting close enough to the planet, rained a spore-like lifeform on the planet that upon reaching the more life-friendly climate of Pern, transformed into a devastating thread-like substance that devoured all organic matter. There was always a couple hundred years between the occurences of these attacks, as they only happened when the two planets were close together (and the red star had a highly eliptical orbit that took it through the system Oort cloud, and as a result wasn't in the inner system very often). Why am I talking about this? Well, originally, before I learned more about desolations, I had assigned them a possible astronomical significance. They happened like clockwork, on a kind of cycle, with hundreds of years between. This reminded me the plight of the people of Pern - their menace also happened on a cyclical basis, with hundreds of years in between. However, in the modern day on Roshar, there hasn't been a desolation in ages. This ALSO reminded me of Pern, since the Pern books take place in a time where there hasn't been a threadfall in a very, very long time. The people have basically forgotten about it. This is because of the way the orbits worked, the red star hadn't passed close to the planet in its last couple trips through the inner system. I thought that perhaps the desolations worked the same way, and the reason there hadn't been one for a while was that the planets hadn't "aligned correctly". When I learned that Odium was trapped (supposedly on Braize), this made me believe this theory even more strongly. He could only exert his influence when Braize's orbit aligned with Roshar's. I now know that this is likely not the case. However, Brandon has said that the gas giants in the system have an effect on Roshar. What if the effect has to do with the highstorms? The highstorms seem to happen on a cyclical, yet complex, basis. The stormwardens have been trying to predict them. The complex system of when highstorms happen could easily be the result of the complex (to an uninformed observer) orbital mechanics that would come about from the relative positions of 10 different gas giants and Roshar, all of which are orbiting with a different period. The orbits would be complex, but predictable. The stormwardens, in their efforts to predict the coming of the highstorms, may have unwittingly been developing the mathematics of orbital mechanics. Basically, I am thinking that there is some sort of tidal system that the other planets exert. The actual tides caused by gravitation would be miniscule, but if the planets are invested in some way (which makes sense if they are actually part of the cage keeping Odium in the system), perhaps there is an investiture based analogue of tides that trigger the highstorms on Roshar. I would welcome any comments on this idea, as well as what you all think the Stormwardens are doing when they are creating their model to predict highstorms. 3
Spoolofwhool Posted January 25, 2017 Posted January 25, 2017 My thoughts: The Desolations appear to be tied to the appearance of Heralds on Roshar. While the idea of orbitals is good, there is a WoB that contraddicts it rather strongly. The WoB states that if the Heralds remain on Roshar following the end of a Desolation, another one would start up immediately. Therefore, it seems unlikely the orbital mechanisms are a factor as the actions of the Heralds are a significant determinant as well. Regarding the Highstorms and gas giants. Based on the essay in AU, my thoughts are that the gas giants can't actually be seen from Roshar. Khriss observes that they have little cognitive presence and are in fact hard to observe anywhere. Additionally, I believe it was stated by Kaladin that predicting Highstorms isn't that hard to do mathematically; his father did it as a hobby and was right fairly often. This, to me, puts into doubt the need for complex mathematical knowledge and keen astrological skills unless Kaladin was severely underselling the concept.
Valtak Posted January 25, 2017 Author Posted January 25, 2017 I wasn't meaning to imply that the math involved is complicated, merely that it leads to complicated outcomes. Anyone with a working knowledge of geometry could craft a model of relative distances of points orbiting inscribed circles (note: I am saying this from the point of view of someone for whom higher mathematics is an integral part of my daily life, so I may be suffering from delusions as to how simple the problem is). It isn't actually hard, it just seems so to the uninformed. Liren seems to be an educated man, I have no doubt he could do the requisite calculations. Also, note that the planets wouldn't need to be visible with the naked eye in order to exert influence on Roshar. Planetary bodies exert influence on one another from great distances, and if we are assuming this is a celestial form of investiture based tides, visible presence would not matter. Good points on the desolations though, I had discarded the theory already and had only included it as explanation for why I was thinking about orbital mechanics. I didn't have all of the information you provided, though, and it is super interesting.
Spoolofwhool Posted January 25, 2017 Posted January 25, 2017 They wouldn't need to be visible to exert an influence, sure, but they would probsbly need to be visible in order to be observed and used for the calculation. I'm not sure there would be enough influence of the movement of other celestial bodies to indicate their existence otherwise.
Valtak Posted January 25, 2017 Author Posted January 25, 2017 Oh, I see the miscommunication. I don't think the storm wardens know they are modeling orbital mechanics. It has been a theme in science that people observe the effects of something, and make a model that predicts outcomes while having no knowledge of the actual cause of the phenomenon. Then, some super smart person comes along later with a theory as to why the phenomenon happens, it lines up with existing models, and everyone says "hey! This person is like Einstein or something!" (in at least one case, literally). They probably see highstorm prediction as completely separate from orbital mechanics, but, unknown to them, the mathematics they are developing also predict the location of planets they do not even know exist.
Yezrien Posted January 25, 2017 Posted January 25, 2017 Interesting theory. I've always wondered how the Stormwardens make their predictions, and I always thought "mathematics" was a euphemism for something more intereting. Considering how many secret societies and hidden agendas there are on Roshar, I wouldn't be surprised if the Stormwardens know more than they let on. They've revealed that there's just one Highstorm, circling the world over and over again, but I think there's more to it than that. But I think it's more realmatic than astronomical. I think the prevailing theory is that the Highstorm is a vaporized shardpool -- a mobile perpendicularity, which might explain how so many Rosharans (both human and spren) commonly travel to and from Shadesmar. And if that's the case, I bet the Stormwardens track the Highstorm by observing it in Shadesmar, or by monitoring some kind of captive spren that reacts to its proximity.
Valtak Posted January 25, 2017 Author Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) If there is just one highstorm, couldn't it be in the same relative position with respect to the celestial coordinates (pointing towards braize, or towards some other celestial body), while Roshar rotates "underneath" it? This would give the impression of it travelling quickly around the world from the Rosharan frame of reference, and some sort of axial wobble on behalf of Roshar could explain why there isn't a highstorm every day, it traces a spiral pattern from north to south pole, only passing over the parts of Roshar where our PoV characters reside every now and again. Kind of like the great red spot situation o Jupiter, a permanent storm. Oh, I just thought of something neat. Brandon had said that the highstorm existed before Honor, but that its nature has changed now. Maybe before they hit the PoV lands, they pass over Honors shardpool and suck up some extra magical oomph. By the time they reach shinovar, they are back to being normal storms. Edited January 25, 2017 by Valtak 1
Valtak Posted January 25, 2017 Author Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) Though, this theory doesn't really mesh well with the Stormfather apparently choosing to conjure up a highstorm on a whim to collide with the everstorm. Edited January 25, 2017 by Valtak
Spoolofwhool Posted January 25, 2017 Posted January 25, 2017 I forgot about that, but true. Also, there's the fact that the Listeners were able to create an Everstorm which appears to be basically a new highstorm in reverse. Also, I think there was an interesting theory that the highstorm might actually have a center somewhere far north which is stationary, and the storms felt on the continent are just long sweeping arms extending from this origin. @Belzedar If that's the case then learning how to access Shadesmar mustnt be that tricky since Kaladin's father was able to predict highstorms.
Yezrien Posted January 25, 2017 Posted January 25, 2017 Right. I forgot about that. I guess if the patterns are regular enough, laypeople can do some basic calculations. I just like to think the Stormwardens are hiding something.
Spoolofwhool Posted January 25, 2017 Posted January 25, 2017 41 minutes ago, Belzedar said: Right. I forgot about that. I guess if the patterns are regular enough, laypeople can do some basic calculations. I just like to think the Stormwardens are hiding something. They're hiding that they're turning glyphs into a language, but other than that I don't think anything major has been indicated.
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