ecohansen Posted June 12, 2015 Posted June 12, 2015 I also agree that a 1% growth rate is too low. You used the world population growth rate, but remember that most of the world was not industrial in the late 1700s. Here, the population was expanding into new lands freshly prepared by a benevelolent god, well-stocked with the Lord Ruler's canned goods, and having the collected wisdom of the ages in the transcripts of Sazeds metalminds. Those are certainly more ideal conditions than were present in colonial America. After adjusting for immigration, colonial america had a natural growth rate (that is, a growth rate from boinkin' rather than immigratin') of about 2.9%. I really can't imagine the Scadrial rate being lower than that. So, if they did have that 2.9% growth rate, the initial population couldn't have been higher than 2,498 people.
Oudeis he/him Posted June 12, 2015 Posted June 12, 2015 Can we assume that after the first century or so, once the Basin was pretty well filled, the population explosion tapered off? Or that for the first decade or so, various factors meant people weren't reproducing quite as quickly as we thought? Are there any factors we haven't considered which could make for a higher mortality rate? (People wouldn't be used, for example, to things like sunstroke.)
Arook he/him Posted June 12, 2015 Posted June 12, 2015 I wonder what the population on the Southern hemisphere was like after.
kaellok he/him Posted June 12, 2015 Posted June 12, 2015 You used the world population growth rate, but remember that most of the world was not industrial in the late 1700s. Here, the population was expanding into new lands freshly prepared by a benevelolent god, well-stocked with the Lord Ruler's canned goods, and having the collected wisdom of the ages in the transcripts of Sazeds metalminds. Those are certainly more ideal conditions than were present in colonial America. After adjusting for immigration, colonial america had a natural growth rate (that is, a growth rate from boinkin' rather than immigratin') of about 2.9%. I really can't imagine the Scadrial rate being lower than that. So, if they did have that 2.9% growth rate, the initial population couldn't have been higher than 2,498 people. Canned food does not equal infrastructure. Even tho the Americas didn't have much when first colonized, there was still significant impact from European nations coming across. No infrastructure support means no large growth rate trends. Too, so many of the people in colonial US were already skilled at what was necessary. You didn't have skilled thieves turning to farming, you had well to do and successful farmers turning to farming in a new and more hospitable land. All the knowledge in the world cannot compensate for actual skill (Look no further than Elend for proof of this even in world.) Tl;dr /disagree
ecohansen Posted June 12, 2015 Posted June 12, 2015 (edited) A large proportion of the survivors would have been Terrismen, who had been supporting themselves by herding for a number of years. Moreover, agriculture had become Elend's chief domestic/economic preoccupation by the time of WoA: even city skaa had probably taken a turn in the fields. Further, the storehouses didn't just have canned goods: lumber and other items were listed as well. I would certainly think this would be comparable to the inflow of manufacuted goods from wooden sailing ships. Finally, given Sazed's benevolence, and that half of his Investiture is from Preservation, I can certainly see some ruins of the old civilisation having been preserved, providing things like metal plows. It'd be a garden of eden. Edited June 12, 2015 by ecohansen
Oudeis he/him Posted June 13, 2015 Posted June 13, 2015 Hrm... according to Wax, roughly 1/5th of the Originators were the Terrismen, so presumably decent herdsman. However, recall that Vin is sixteen at the start of the first book, and 18 by the end. However many city skaa went to work fields, they have less than two years experience by the World Reborn. Just observations. Frankly, in three hundred years, a lot of things could happen that might have curtailed the population more than we might expect. These are great points to wonder about, and they might be worth a question to Mr. Sanderson. While I don't feel I personally have much more to add to this conversation, I've enjoyed thinking about this topic and what I've learned from the rest of you, and if you've got more to add I look forward to reading it.
ecohansen Posted June 13, 2015 Posted June 13, 2015 I'd forgotten the 1/5 number! Now we have a way to work from the opposite direction. When Elend met the Terris refugees near the end of WoA, their group had "almost a thousand" members. Unfortunately, there wasn't a number attached when Sazed visited the refugees at the Pits of Hathsin in Hero of Ages. So, if most of the refugees survived the journey to the pits, and if only negligible numbers of other surviving Terrismen trickled in later (either assumption could be challenged), then there were a thousand Terrismen survivors, so there were a total of 5000 originators.
Oudeis he/him Posted June 13, 2015 Posted June 13, 2015 Per my post on the previous page, there were at one point 40k Terrismen at the enclave. That many, or some amount less, survived Rebirth, giving us an approximate upper bound of two hundred thousand.
ecohansen Posted June 13, 2015 Posted June 13, 2015 (edited) Derp. I'm an idiot. Ignore everything I said on this thread. Edited June 13, 2015 by ecohansen
Argent he/him Posted June 15, 2015 Author Posted June 15, 2015 However, recall that Vin is sixteen at the start of the first book, and 18 by the end. However many city skaa went to work fields, they have less than two years experience by the World Reborn. She ends up being 21 or 22, actually. I've been going through The Hero of Ages lately and just before they get to Fadrex City she remarks that she is 21.
Recommended Posts