Taupe Gecko Posted January 10 Posted January 10 28 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Why wouldn't I know who Toucan is if I v!read them? edit: wait you mean i know the person behind the anon acount? Yes, I mean the latter
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 11 Posted January 11 50 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Yes, I mean the latter Then, Yes.
Melon Dingo Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Hi everyone. Slowly reading the thread Rhino had most votes @Scarlet Octopusyout implied youd hit the most voted. Why didnt you?
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Still piecing through things in my head, but I had something I wanted to clarify more from both Zebra and Rhino @Quartz Zebra Spoiler The Defective Pile Chiji: This "Coinshot" claim is leakier than a screen-door submarine. They shouted it out just as the mob was gatherin’ with pitchforks. In my experience, if a part screams "I’m essential!" right before you toss it in the scrap, it’s usually lyin’. Johnson: Johnson, you’re spendin’ all your time polishin’ the hull while the engine’s on fire. Superficial analysis and "fluff" questions don’t catch Saboteurs. You’re actin’ like a distraction designed to keep us from lookin’ at the real leaks. Ophelia: Claimin' "Vanilla" as a strategy to stay quiet? That’s just called "hidin'." You’ve been switchin’ votes like a loose transmission, and I don’t trust a gear that won’t lock into place. Spoiler SUBJECT: RE-CALIBRATIN’ THE GEARS Finch wipes a streak of grease across her forehead, lookin’ up from the schematic with a look of intense concentration. Well, paint me copper and call me a conductor! I turn my back for one minute to tighten a manifold, and suddenly we got "ghosts" huddlin’ in the maintenance vents? Chiji, if there's really a "coordinated train" movin' through the PMs, then my Grumble-Gauge just hit the red-line. I ain't gonna be the heavy wrench that helps a "coordinated train" smash a crewmate into the scrap-heap—not until I see the math in the public thread. That’s just sloppy engineerin’. I’m reconsidering Chiji and switchin' back to Ophellia. Ophellia still actin’ like a clogged pipe, and I’d rather put pressure on a quiet leak than be a pawn in some PM-gambit. Consider this a system reboot while I wait for the air to clear on these "secret huddles." Stay safe and don't touch my doodads! -Finch Both Iguana and Toucan were on your elim reads. What made you switch over to Toucan over Iguana? @Plum Rhinoceros Spoiler Toucan -> Toucan's response to suspicion on them seems to be weird. They seem to think that we suspect them for voting on Axo, which is not the entire picture. They seem to think the question is "why did you vote on Axo?", but the question we are posing is "why did you vote on Axo in the night?", emphasis on the night part. I feel like a Saboteur here would be hyper-aware of what they actually did, so this actually makes me want to give minor village points? Ig -> Yeah, it's that damning move off Roo onto Octo. It's just that, I can't find anything else. I don't know guys, can I interest you in some Tross? I suspect them more than either of these guys. The post here suggests that you think there's something that's suspicious with both Toucan and Iguana. However, between the two, you had a slight reason to v!lean Toucan. So, my question is, what made you choose to not move off Toucan?
Quartz Zebra Posted January 11 Posted January 11 15 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Both Iguana and Toucan were on your elim reads. What made you switch over to Toucan over Iguana? SUBJECT: RE: PRIORITIES Listen, I know that Johnson looked like a burst steam pipe to everyone with eyes. It’s obvious, it’s loud, and it’s sprayin’ soot everywhere. But that’s the point—an obvious leak is easy to fix when the time comes. I shifted to Ophelia because she's is the kind of deep rust that survives the initial inspection and sinks the whole durn ship during a deep-space jump. If everyone already knows Johnson is a Saboteur, then he is a solved problem. But if we let a quiet threat like Ophelia slide into the later days just because they weren't the loudest rattle in the room, we’re as good as scrapped. I wanted to make sure the crew didn't forget that just because someone's "likely to make it later" doesn't mean they're Clean. In my engine room, we don't just fix the loudest clank; we fix the part that’s gonna fail when we're under the most pressure. Johnson wasn't goin' nowhere. But Ophelia? Ophelia tryin' to blend into the bulkheads. I’m keepin’ my wrench where it’s needed most for the long haul. Stay safe, and don't touch my doodads -Finch
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted January 11 Author Posted January 11 11 hours ago, Mint Heron said: @A Jo in the Bush / @The Unknown Medallion What's happening to Lion and Cham btw? Are they getting filter-killed or replaced? PAFO 8 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said: Hmm interesting Idk if it matters, but it says A saboteur. Not saboteurS, while it did when beagle was attacked. Does this matter? Does this mean there is only one elim left? The spreadsheet is broken and I had to do that bit of the writeup by hand. I'm not commenting on whether there is 1 or more Saboteurs left, only on the fact that I didn't have the copy/paste functionality working this morning.
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 11 Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Melon Dingo said: Hi everyone. Slowly reading the thread Rhino had most votes @Scarlet Octopusyout implied youd hit the most voted. Why didnt you? The vote system didn't work like i wanted, and I was to tired to count (like, I fell asleep after choosing someone i thought was going to be a safe kill) in retrospect, there was a better kill.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 11 Posted January 11 10 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said: D1 VC: Hide contents Violet Axolotl (4); Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1); Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1); Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5); Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1); Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2); Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1); Sage Kangaroo D2 VC: Reveal hidden contents Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (4): Scarlet Octopus, Saffron Iguana, Quartz Zebra, Plum Rhinoceros Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Saffron Iguana (6): Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Magenta Albatross, Ivory Dragonfly now if we make some assumptions (ie v/Beagle, v/dragonfly v/Weasel, v/octopus (for igs isolated vote), similar reasoning for zebra uhh looking at this im missing something axolotl I know nothing abt them and its a whole in my anaylsis I'm willing to see an elim among Axolotl or Rhinoceros based on D2 Axolotl for now I'm hesitant to give Zebra a v!read based on being the isolated vote on Crocodile. While Crocodile did cop some early votes, I don't think they were ever in serious contention for being the exe on D1. Between the three elims we know of (Crocodile, Iguana, Kangaroo), if there was a teammate to distance from, Crocodile would be the safest. 44 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said: SUBJECT: RE: PRIORITIES Listen, I know that Johnson looked like a burst steam pipe to everyone with eyes. It’s obvious, it’s loud, and it’s sprayin’ soot everywhere. But that’s the point—an obvious leak is easy to fix when the time comes. I shifted to Ophelia because she's is the kind of deep rust that survives the initial inspection and sinks the whole durn ship during a deep-space jump. If everyone already knows Johnson is a Saboteur, then he is a solved problem. But if we let a quiet threat like Ophelia slide into the later days just because they weren't the loudest rattle in the room, we’re as good as scrapped. I wanted to make sure the crew didn't forget that just because someone's "likely to make it later" doesn't mean they're Clean. In my engine room, we don't just fix the loudest clank; we fix the part that’s gonna fail when we're under the most pressure. Johnson wasn't goin' nowhere. But Ophelia? Ophelia tryin' to blend into the bulkheads. I’m keepin’ my wrench where it’s needed most for the long haul. Stay safe, and don't touch my doodads -Finch I see, and Iguana being revealed as a Saboteur doesn't make Toucan look better?
Violet Axolotl Posted January 11 Posted January 11 1 hour ago, A Jo in the Bush said: The spreadsheet is broken and I had to do that bit of the writeup by hand. I'm not commenting on whether there is 1 or more Saboteurs left, only on the fact that I didn't have the copy/paste functionality working this morning. Alrighty
Melon Dingo Posted January 11 Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Scarlet Octopus said: The vote system didn't work like i wanted, and I was to tired to count (like, I fell asleep after choosing someone i thought was going to be a safe kill) in retrospect, there was a better kill. I voted, @ ed you, and give a vote count. You didnt have to count.
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 11 Posted January 11 48 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: I voted, @ ed you, and give a vote count. You didnt have to count. Yeah, and the majority vote was of a mistborn who claimed in PMs MB thug, and beijg a reasonableperson, thought it was a good idea, to consider that they were telling the truth. So I went with the second option.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 11 Posted January 11 6 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Then, Yes. I'm glad you do because I have no idea who anyone else is, but thanks anyway!
Melon Dingo Posted January 11 Posted January 11 14 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I said that but I still tried my best to give you one? Croc: Okay Ig, just hide on a side-train, we do not 2 e!trains nor we do want too many to be on DF because DF is going to flip. My vote on Axo won't count because I'm going to Riot and it's going it cancel. Croc couldn't come back on and/or Riot for some reason. 2 hours ago, Scarlet Octopus said: Yeah, and the majority vote was of a mistborn who claimed in PMs MB thug, and beijg a reasonableperson, thought it was a good idea, to consider that they were telling the truth. So I went with the second option. How did you know? It seems you shouldnt have known until today? Lots of votes on Rhino. Toucan seems only to pop up to defend themselves when voted on Toucan
Mint Heron Posted January 11 Posted January 11 (edited) 9 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said: PAFO I'd genuinely like an answer by end of C3 because I think it affects how we should be playing the game, depending on whether the refusal to do anything about those two players suggests they are actually not inactives and are (somehow) lurking and sending in orders without filter pressure or not. Lion last logged in on 4th Jan so I'm guessing that Lion is a genuine inactive but Pearl Chameleon has a 7th Jan 1159hrs login which makes me feel that there might be something going on there. I'm not interested in diverting to these guys; I think if anything we can talk about resolving by Coinshot at some point. Like, if the last Elim standing* ends up being Lion, and we kill half the game trying to find them because they're doing nothing, then what? *Note that we are not entertaining either Lion or Cham at this point because there was a kill, which requires someone to have sent in an order. 17 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I said that but I still tried my best to give you one? I think my concern is primarily that it looks like an argumentative strategy to create complex explanations for things (notably for which we have no evidence beyond the fact it might have happened) in order to disregard direct evidence. In which case my question is: why even bother doing vote analysis (like you were trying to do earlier this cycle?) And when do you decide something needs a 'just so' explanation for which we have zero evidence beyond plausibility and when not? I don't really care about method arguments if we're finding Elims and I think they're boring in big 2026. My concern and the reason I've latched on to this is it reads like you're trying to FUD-lite in a game for a particular push, and the FUDing is the red flag to me. 9 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Still piecing through things in my head, but I had something I wanted to clarify more from both Zebra and Rhino @Quartz Zebra Reveal hidden contents The Defective Pile Chiji: This "Coinshot" claim is leakier than a screen-door submarine. They shouted it out just as the mob was gatherin’ with pitchforks. In my experience, if a part screams "I’m essential!" right before you toss it in the scrap, it’s usually lyin’. Johnson: Johnson, you’re spendin’ all your time polishin’ the hull while the engine’s on fire. Superficial analysis and "fluff" questions don’t catch Saboteurs. You’re actin’ like a distraction designed to keep us from lookin’ at the real leaks. Ophelia: Claimin' "Vanilla" as a strategy to stay quiet? That’s just called "hidin'." You’ve been switchin’ votes like a loose transmission, and I don’t trust a gear that won’t lock into place. Reveal hidden contents SUBJECT: RE-CALIBRATIN’ THE GEARS Finch wipes a streak of grease across her forehead, lookin’ up from the schematic with a look of intense concentration. Well, paint me copper and call me a conductor! I turn my back for one minute to tighten a manifold, and suddenly we got "ghosts" huddlin’ in the maintenance vents? Chiji, if there's really a "coordinated train" movin' through the PMs, then my Grumble-Gauge just hit the red-line. I ain't gonna be the heavy wrench that helps a "coordinated train" smash a crewmate into the scrap-heap—not until I see the math in the public thread. That’s just sloppy engineerin’. I’m reconsidering Chiji and switchin' back to Ophellia. Ophellia still actin’ like a clogged pipe, and I’d rather put pressure on a quiet leak than be a pawn in some PM-gambit. Consider this a system reboot while I wait for the air to clear on these "secret huddles." Stay safe and don't touch my doodads! -Finch Both Iguana and Toucan were on your elim reads. What made you switch over to Toucan over Iguana? @Plum Rhinoceros Reveal hidden contents Toucan -> Toucan's response to suspicion on them seems to be weird. They seem to think that we suspect them for voting on Axo, which is not the entire picture. They seem to think the question is "why did you vote on Axo?", but the question we are posing is "why did you vote on Axo in the night?", emphasis on the night part. I feel like a Saboteur here would be hyper-aware of what they actually did, so this actually makes me want to give minor village points? Ig -> Yeah, it's that damning move off Roo onto Octo. It's just that, I can't find anything else. I don't know guys, can I interest you in some Tross? I suspect them more than either of these guys. The post here suggests that you think there's something that's suspicious with both Toucan and Iguana. However, between the two, you had a slight reason to v!lean Toucan. So, my question is, what made you choose to not move off Toucan? I want answers to these two posts before making up my mind, btw. I think both these posts look incredibly problematic given both players' stances D2 and early game credit on Zebra can only last so long. I can see a world we are overly-crutching on Elim opportunism on Ocho btw. It is just as possible they decided to let the Village kill itself without interference. To open things up more: Zebra 8 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: I'm hesitant to give Zebra a v!read based on being the isolated vote on Crocodile. While Crocodile did cop some early votes, I don't think they were ever in serious contention for being the exe on D1. Between the three elims we know of (Crocodile, Iguana, Kangaroo), if there was a teammate to distance from, Crocodile would be the safest. My main issue is that it was one directional. But I also think that I cannot say I believe in Zebra's later game enough that the early game credit should be sacred. 3 hours ago, Melon Dingo said: Lots of votes on Rhino. Toucan seems only to pop up to defend themselves when voted on I will note going forward that in most worlds we are in a two Elims world left, one Elim in some distros but I don't really believe one. Unless we're in a three Elims world, we're not going to see train size be as indicative anymore, depending. They just don't have the numbers left to split votes too hard. I agree I prefer a non-unanimous votestate, but this is functionally the cleaning up stage of a game if we don't misplay. People need to not overcrutch on expecting a split vote at this point. Edited to add: @Onyx Flamingo Could you say a bit more about your Toucan read? I'm not comfortable basing my entire read of Toucan off your vouch which is in itself based on Toucan's identity at this stage in the game. Edited January 11 by Mint Heron code error
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 11 Posted January 11 22 hours ago, Mint Heron said: Rhino to start. Acknowledge Beagle's points, this is strictly vote-based. I realized I don't think I had explained my v!read on Rhino in thread, so I'm going to explain it again here and there were also some additional points that I had thought about earlier - On D1, your perspective was that Rhino is an elim that froze during a very chaotic EoD. My perspective is that Rhino is a villager who was trying to spend the last hour or so catching up and wanted to at least share some thoughts before the day is over. In a world where Rhino is elim, Rhino would not be spending that time writing both RP and some analysis. Instead, when they see there's posts popping up, they would be looking at it and then going over to the elim doc to try and figure out with their teammates if they could/should do something. So, in a way, I see Rhino's post there being their alibi that they weren't off in the elim doc (probably panicking) during that period. - On D2, we know that Iguana is Kandra and also was one of the detractors against the Octo wagon. Iguana (and the elims) would have wanted to nab the Coinshot. Iguana defended Octo because Octo flipping v! would raise alarm bells on the people who voted for it and they wouldn't want that if Iguana were to inherit it. So Iguana did defend Octo, but he never did it that strongly. Compared to Iguana's defense, Rhino also defended Octo, but in a more thorough manner, actively looking into Octo's prior behavior and actions to serve as evidence that leans toward Octo being v! If they are elims together, I don't see both of them fighting hard against Octo's exe, since Octo getting exe'd would be an ideal outcome (especially after having lost 2 of their own already)
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 11 Posted January 11 14 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I'm voting Rhino because I v!read Toucan. What do you think about their night vote on Axo? And what do you think about Zebra and Axo themselves. Hm, I do think I'm leaning more on Toucan than Axo. 2 v!Lurchers would make sense if e!Coinshot, and Gecko is right, if there's a 4-person team (or a 5-person team with the 5th person Lion or Cham), e!CS has to submit the Saboteur kill. Toucan and Axo cannot be evil together because of Toucan's night vote on Axo. 10 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: The post here suggests that you think there's something that's suspicious with both Toucan and Iguana. However, between the two, you had a slight reason to v!lean Toucan. So, my question is, what made you choose to not move off Toucan? It was very close between Toucan and Ig in my head. I just made a snap judgement (in this post) in deciding that the night vote on Axo looks so incredibly directed from the Saboteur's doc, when you compare with Ig moving off Roo when Axo was ahead by 2 votes. 9 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: I'm hesitant to give Zebra a v!read based on being the isolated vote on Crocodile. While Crocodile did cop some early votes, I don't think they were ever in serious contention for being the exe on D1. Between the three elims we know of (Crocodile, Iguana, Kangaroo), if there was a teammate to distance from, Crocodile would be the safest. Also, if you observe, quite a few initial poke votes from the Saboteurs' were on Saboteurs. This is the vote sequence for D1 in which Column 1 is the voter - D1 Gecko Croc DF Weasel Roo DF Zebra Oct Toucan Weasel Axo Roo Oct Meerkat DF Toucan El Roo Croc DF Weasel Weasel DF Roo Dingo Ig Axo Ig Roo Oct Axo Roo DF Tross Meerkat Zebra Croc Meerkat DF Roo Croc Meerkat Axo El Meerkat Bea Axo El Axo Heron Dingo Axo Flami Axo Roo voted on Croc, Ig voted on Roo - it might be a pattern of poke-distancing. Noted that Croc's initial vote was on Meerkat. 4 hours ago, Melon Dingo said: How did you know? It seems you shouldnt have known until today? I claimed to them in PMs, letting them know that I'd survive if they chose me as a target. 1 hour ago, Mint Heron said: I think my concern is primarily that it looks like an argumentative strategy to create complex explanations for things (notably for which we have no evidence beyond the fact it might have happened) in order to disregard direct evidence. In which case my question is: why even bother doing vote analysis (like you were trying to do earlier this cycle?) And when do you decide something needs a 'just so' explanation for which we have zero evidence beyond plausibility and when not? I don't really care about method arguments if we're finding Elims and I think they're boring in big 2026. My concern and the reason I've latched on to this is it reads like you're trying to FUD-lite in a game for a particular push, and the FUDing is the red flag to me. Sorry, just to clarify, what is the direct evidence that I am disregarding? I don't get the FUD angle either...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 11 Posted January 11 3 hours ago, Mint Heron said: I can see a world we are overly-crutching on Elim opportunism on Ocho btw. It is just as possible they decided to let the Village kill itself without interference. To open things up more: Zebra My main issue is that it was one directional. But I also think that I cannot say I believe in Zebra's later game enough that the early game credit should be sacred. Fair point. It's possible that they felt that Octopus had looked suspicious enough from their claim that they thought they didn't need to participate in that and count on the village to do it for them Can you explain more on why it being one-directional means that it's less suspicious? 22 hours ago, Mint Heron said: Tbh I am not sure Ele shot Axl given how behind Ele was and how vascillatory they tended to be, which is why I ask because my concern is: E!Seeker, E!Rioter, E!Kandra 4 x V!MB, 2 x V!Lurcher, 1 x V!CS? This is absolutely not correct and unacceptable with what we have of the Elim side of the distro. Something is very wrong here. IDK I would role-exe but the Village roster is, comparatively, bonkers stacked on roles. Reveal hidden contents I don't think it's entirely out of the possibility that all of the Mistborn are village Currently, we're working with the assumption that the Village roster is stacked, so the Elim roster should also match that for the purpose of balancing. In my current distro solve, I think two among E!Kandra, E!Smoker, and E!Lurcher makes the most sense. I find that having a Mistborn in the team, given what we already know, would be quite underpowered since it's a role that heavily relies on chance and what the elim rolls has a higher chance of not being helpful in that cycle. I think a 4 Kandra distro is possible (2 on each side) and it's basically a high skill level distro where each side has to work hard to protect its more important PRs, and for the elims also, to find the best people to target. The Mistborns serve as interference since they're not as high-power roles due to their variability (and to spice things up a little instead of just having so many vanilla) 44 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: It was very close between Toucan and Ig in my head. I just made a snap judgement (in this post) in deciding that the night vote on Axo looks so incredibly directed from the Saboteur's doc, when you compare with Ig moving off Roo when Axo was ahead by 2 votes. Also, if you observe, quite a few initial poke votes from the Saboteurs' were on Saboteurs. This is the vote sequence for D1 in which Column 1 is the voter - D1 Gecko Croc DF Weasel Roo DF Zebra Oct Toucan Weasel Axo Roo Oct Meerkat DF Toucan El Roo Croc DF Weasel Weasel DF Roo Dingo Ig Axo Ig Roo Oct Axo Roo DF Tross Meerkat Zebra Croc Meerkat DF Roo Croc Meerkat Axo El Meerkat Bea Axo El Axo Heron Dingo Axo Flami Axo Roo voted on Croc, Ig voted on Roo - it might be a pattern of poke-distancing. Noted that Croc's initial vote was on Meerkat. Can you explain more on what the intention of the elims would be in directing Toucan to vote Axo during the night? I caught that too initially (elims poke-voting each other in Kangaroo and Iguana), and thought it just happened to be a coincidence, but perhaps there might be more intention behind it
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 11 Posted January 11 25 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: I think a 4 Kandra distro is possible (2 on each side) and it's basically a high skill level distro where each side has to work hard to protect its more important PRs, and for the elims also, to find the best people to target. The Mistborns serve as interference since they're not as high-power roles due to their variability (and to spice things up a little instead of just having so many vanilla) I didn't consider earlier that mistborn are considered less powerful than coinshots when I made my post about thinking there are 2 coinshots not 2 mistborn (I really should've but oh well), although it still could be that the other coinshot chose not to kill anyone. 25 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Can you explain more on what the intention of the elims would be in directing Toucan to vote Axo during the night? Ditto, especially as I've said it was a stupid mistake, and it's almost gotten me voted out. That's not a great under-the-radar elim strategy, if I was one (I'm not, if me just saying that is of any persuasion to anyone).
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted January 11 Author Posted January 11 4 hours ago, Mint Heron said: I'd genuinely like an answer by end of C3 because I think it affects how we should be playing the game, depending on whether the refusal to do anything about those two players suggests they are actually not inactives and are (somehow) lurking and sending in orders without filter pressure or not. That's fair. Current Vote Count: Sunburst Toucan (4): Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Quartz Zebra, Melon Dingo Quartz Zebra (2): Oxblood Beagle, Mint Heron Plum Rhinoceros (4): Sunburst Toucan, Onyx Flamingo, Magenta Albatross, Ivory Dragonfly Turquoise Gorilla the Tiebreaker is carefully watching.
Melon Dingo Posted January 11 Posted January 11 I dont think its Zebra. Can someone link Ivory Drsgonfly's roleclaim? I think maybe we should revisit an e!Axolotl discussion.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 11 Posted January 11 (edited) 7 hours ago, Mint Heron said: I'd genuinely like an answer by end of C3 because I think it affects how we should be playing the game, depending on whether the refusal to do anything about those two players suggests they are actually not inactives and are (somehow) lurking and sending in orders without filter pressure or not. Lion last logged in on 4th Jan so I'm guessing that Lion is a genuine inactive but Pearl Chameleon has a 7th Jan 1159hrs login which makes me feel that there might be something going on there. I'm not interested in diverting to these guys; I think if anything we can talk about resolving by Coinshot at some point. Like, if the last Elim standing* ends up being Lion, and we kill half the game trying to find them because they're doing nothing, then what? *Note that we are not entertaining either Lion or Cham at this point because there was a kill, which requires someone to have sent in an order. I think my concern is primarily that it looks like an argumentative strategy to create complex explanations for things (notably for which we have no evidence beyond the fact it might have happened) in order to disregard direct evidence. In which case my question is: why even bother doing vote analysis (like you were trying to do earlier this cycle?) And when do you decide something needs a 'just so' explanation for which we have zero evidence beyond plausibility and when not? I don't really care about method arguments if we're finding Elims and I think they're boring in big 2026. My concern and the reason I've latched on to this is it reads like you're trying to FUD-lite in a game for a particular push, and the FUDing is the red flag to me. I want answers to these two posts before making up my mind, btw. I think both these posts look incredibly problematic given both players' stances D2 and early game credit on Zebra can only last so long. I can see a world we are overly-crutching on Elim opportunism on Ocho btw. It is just as possible they decided to let the Village kill itself without interference. To open things up more: Zebra My main issue is that it was one directional. But I also think that I cannot say I believe in Zebra's later game enough that the early game credit should be sacred. I will note going forward that in most worlds we are in a two Elims world left, one Elim in some distros but I don't really believe one. Unless we're in a three Elims world, we're not going to see train size be as indicative anymore, depending. They just don't have the numbers left to split votes too hard. I agree I prefer a non-unanimous votestate, but this is functionally the cleaning up stage of a game if we don't misplay. People need to not overcrutch on expecting a split vote at this point. Edited to add: @Onyx Flamingo Could you say a bit more about your Toucan read? I'm not comfortable basing my entire read of Toucan off your vouch which is in itself based on Toucan's identity at this stage in the game. After what I realized during the Night, and looking through all of Toucan's posts in C2, I found that all of their posts line up perfectly with what I know about them, and I am very confident that they are a Loyalist. 4 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: What do you think about their night vote on Axo? And what do you think about Zebra and Axo themselves. Hm, I do think I'm leaning more on Toucan than Axo. 2 v!Lurchers would make sense if e!Coinshot, and Gecko is right, if there's a 4-person team (or a 5-person team with the 5th person Lion or Cham), e!CS has to submit the Saboteur kill. Toucan and Axo cannot be evil together because of Toucan's night vote on Axo. It was very close between Toucan and Ig in my head. I just made a snap judgement (in this post) in deciding that the night vote on Axo looks so incredibly directed from the Saboteur's doc, when you compare with Ig moving off Roo when Axo was ahead by 2 votes. Also, if you observe, quite a few initial poke votes from the Saboteurs' were on Saboteurs. This is the vote sequence for D1 in which Column 1 is the voter - D1 Gecko Croc DF Weasel Roo DF Zebra Oct Toucan Weasel Axo Roo Oct Meerkat DF Toucan El Roo Croc DF Weasel Weasel DF Roo Dingo Ig Axo Ig Roo Oct Axo Roo DF Tross Meerkat Zebra Croc Meerkat DF Roo Croc Meerkat Axo El Meerkat Bea Axo El Axo Heron Dingo Axo Flami Axo Roo voted on Croc, Ig voted on Roo - it might be a pattern of poke-distancing. Noted that Croc's initial vote was on Meerkat. I claimed to them in PMs, letting them know that I'd survive if they chose me as a target. Sorry, just to clarify, what is the direct evidence that I am disregarding? I don't get the FUD angle either... 2 hours ago, Sunburst Toucan said: I didn't consider earlier that mistborn are considered less powerful than coinshots when I made my post about thinking there are 2 coinshots not 2 mistborn (I really should've but oh well), although it still could be that the other coinshot chose not to kill anyone. Ditto, especially as I've said it was a stupid mistake, and it's almost gotten me voted out. That's not a great under-the-radar elim strategy, if I was one (I'm not, if me just saying that is of any persuasion to anyone). I would like to echo what Toucan said above, too me, it looks like a stupid mistake, sure, a very confusing one, but not one that is e!indicative. I am currently most confident in Toucan being a Loyalist. Edited January 11 by Onyx Flamingo Clarification
Taupe Gecko Posted January 11 Posted January 11 It was nearing evening as H.E.A.R.T.H put down the Way of Kings and finally returned to solving. The text captivated him - so abstract, so anecdotal, it was almost like a handbook of humanity. But H.E.A.R.T.H could not spend the rest of his existence reading. There was work to be done. There were lives to fight for. And so H.E.A.R.T.H set down the book, and opened the ship videofeeds to review yet once again the events of the previous day. In all the chaos, of the following he felt confident: there was a monster among the voters of Octopus. The question was which one. 2 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Can you explain more on what the intention of the elims would be in directing Toucan to vote Axo during the night? First, H.E.A.R.T.H proposed an answer to this question. It was possible that the direction was submitted during the day - but Toucan only saw it in the night, and instinctively took action. Now, for the events of the day (paying attention as well to Zebra, who appeared to be a common suspicion): Zebra's first appearance came before the Octopus train, and said nothing. Toucan implies being vanilla. Toucan, considering current circumstances, willing to solidify a roleclaim? Iguana votes Toucan after a train forms on them (distancing?) with the night vote reasoning. Zebra RPs (quite an active player for one who contributes so little, H.E.A.R.T.H notes). Weasel comes to Toucan's defense, votes Octopus. However, H.E.A.R.T.H was inclined to trust Weasel for now considering anti-Kanga behavior the first day - although that perspective could change. For reference, on the first day, Weasel added a third accusation to Kanga while there was a two-way tie with four accusation each between Dragonfly and Axolotl. If Toucan were to flip evil, however, H.E.A.R.T.H would find Weasel highly suspicious for their activity on the second day. Toucan also votes Octopus, using Weasel's reasoning. Noteworthy they did not vote Iguana, the other main candidate. @Sunburst Toucan was there a particular reason you found Octopus more suspicious than Iguana? Beagle brings down pressure on Iguana. Ele votes Octopus - but we know Ele is clear (thanks Octo). Octopus votes Toucan. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (3): Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (2): Sunburst Toucan, Indigo Weasel Saffron Iguana (1): Mint Heron Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly If Toucan is indeed evil, this was where things should get interesting. H.E.A.R.T.H retracted his vote to accuse Weasel. Zebra gives reads - dislikes Ig, dislikes Toucan, dislikes Octopus, votes Octopus. This would be a reasonable move to protect Ig. Toucan train somewhat falls apart. Toucan says they had no reasoning to vote Axolotl. Axolotl votes Octo. Flamingo voted Octo. Heron voted Octo. Hmmmmmmmmmm Ele votes Octo again. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (1): Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (6): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Quartz Zebra, Mint Heron, Indigo Weasel Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly Mint Heron (2): Melon Dingo, Magenta Albatross Melon Dingo (1): Taupe Gecko Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Flamingo retracts Octo vote. Ig switches to Rhino. No matter what they say, looks like self-pres to me. Zebra switches from Octo to Toucan. Dragonfly revives Ig train. H.E.A.R.T.H followed. Dragonfly left it again. Ig train begins to rise again. Ig follows my behest to vote Toucan. Heron votes Toucan as well. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Mint Heron (1): Melon Dingo Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Sunburst Toucan (4): Quartz Zebra, Taupe Gecko, Saffron Iguana, Mint Heron Onyx Flamingo (1): Oxblood Beagle Sapphire Elephant (1): Magenta Albatross Saffron Iguana (1): Ivory Dragonfly Dingo votes Iguana. Rhino votes Toucan. Says ambivalent between them and Ig, just wants to break tie with Octo. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Sunburst Toucan (5) : Quartz Zebra, Saffron Iguana, Mint Heron, Plum Rhinoceros, Taupe Gecko Saffron Iguana (2): Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo Sapphire Elephant (1): Magenta Albatross Beagle votes Iguana. 4/5/3 Albatross votes Ig. 4/5/4 H.E.A.R.T.H removed his vote from Toucan. 4/4/4 Octo votes Toucan in self-pres. 4/5/4 Flamingo votes Iguana to preserve tie. Not evil. 4/5/5 Heron votes Iguana. 4/4/6 ... So that was crazy. Anyways If H.E.A.R.T.H wanted to stand by his stance on the Octo train, that meant a monster among Weasel/Toucan/Zebra/Axolotl/Flamingo. He was willing to soft-clear Weasel, Flamingo, and Axolotl, Flam for their end of day madness, Axolotl for staying as the leading train far too long day 1 and Weasel for day 1 anti-Kanga behavior. That left Toucan and Zebra. H.E.A.R.T.H was willing to kill either. But he was nearly sure there was a monster among the pair. Just thought of something @Quartz Zebra were you online during rollover D2?
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 11 Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: It was nearing evening as H.E.A.R.T.H put down the Way of Kings and finally returned to solving. The text captivated him - so abstract, so anecdotal, it was almost like a handbook of humanity. But H.E.A.R.T.H could not spend the rest of his existence reading. There was work to be done. There were lives to fight for. And so H.E.A.R.T.H set down the book, and opened the ship videofeeds to review yet once again the events of the previous day. In all the chaos, of the following he felt confident: there was a monster among the voters of Octopus. The question was which one. First, H.E.A.R.T.H proposed an answer to this question. It was possible that the direction was submitted during the day - but Toucan only saw it in the night, and instinctively took action. Now, for the events of the day (paying attention as well to Zebra, who appeared to be a common suspicion): Zebra's first appearance came before the Octopus train, and said nothing. Toucan implies being vanilla. Toucan, considering current circumstances, willing to solidify a roleclaim? Iguana votes Toucan after a train forms on them (distancing?) with the night vote reasoning. Zebra RPs (quite an active player for one who contributes so little, H.E.A.R.T.H notes). Weasel comes to Toucan's defense, votes Octopus. However, H.E.A.R.T.H was inclined to trust Weasel for now considering anti-Kanga behavior the first day - although that perspective could change. For reference, on the first day, Weasel added a third accusation to Kanga while there was a two-way tie with four accusation each between Dragonfly and Axolotl. If Toucan were to flip evil, however, H.E.A.R.T.H would find Weasel highly suspicious for their activity on the second day. Toucan also votes Octopus, using Weasel's reasoning. Noteworthy they did not vote Iguana, the other main candidate. @Sunburst Toucan was there a particular reason you found Octopus more suspicious than Iguana? Beagle brings down pressure on Iguana. Ele votes Octopus - but we know Ele is clear (thanks Octo). Octopus votes Toucan. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (3): Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (2): Sunburst Toucan, Indigo Weasel Saffron Iguana (1): Mint Heron Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly If Toucan is indeed evil, this was where things should get interesting. H.E.A.R.T.H retracted his vote to accuse Weasel. Zebra gives reads - dislikes Ig, dislikes Toucan, dislikes Octopus, votes Octopus. This would be a reasonable move to protect Ig. Toucan train somewhat falls apart. Toucan says they had no reasoning to vote Axolotl. Axolotl votes Octo. Flamingo voted Octo. Heron voted Octo. Hmmmmmmmmmm Ele votes Octo again. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (1): Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (6): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Quartz Zebra, Mint Heron, Indigo Weasel Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly Mint Heron (2): Melon Dingo, Magenta Albatross Melon Dingo (1): Taupe Gecko Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Flamingo retracts Octo vote. Ig switches to Rhino. No matter what they say, looks like self-pres to me. Zebra switches from Octo to Toucan. Dragonfly revives Ig train. H.E.A.R.T.H followed. Dragonfly left it again. Ig train begins to rise again. Ig follows my behest to vote Toucan. Heron votes Toucan as well. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Mint Heron (1): Melon Dingo Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Sunburst Toucan (4): Quartz Zebra, Taupe Gecko, Saffron Iguana, Mint Heron Onyx Flamingo (1): Oxblood Beagle Sapphire Elephant (1): Magenta Albatross Saffron Iguana (1): Ivory Dragonfly Dingo votes Iguana. Rhino votes Toucan. Says ambivalent between them and Ig, just wants to break tie with Octo. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Sunburst Toucan (5) : Quartz Zebra, Saffron Iguana, Mint Heron, Plum Rhinoceros, Taupe Gecko Saffron Iguana (2): Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo Sapphire Elephant (1): Magenta Albatross Beagle votes Iguana. 4/5/3 Albatross votes Ig. 4/5/4 H.E.A.R.T.H removed his vote from Toucan. 4/4/4 Octo votes Toucan in self-pres. 4/5/4 Flamingo votes Iguana to preserve tie. Not evil. 4/5/5 Heron votes Iguana. 4/4/6 ... So that was crazy. Anyways If H.E.A.R.T.H wanted to stand by his stance on the Octo train, that meant a monster among Weasel/Toucan/Zebra/Axolotl/Flamingo. He was willing to soft-clear Weasel, Flamingo, and Axolotl, Flam for their end of day madness, Axolotl for staying as the leading train far too long day 1 and Weasel for day 1 anti-Kanga behavior. That left Toucan and Zebra. H.E.A.R.T.H was willing to kill either. But he was nearly sure there was a monster among the pair. Just thought of something @Quartz Zebra were you online during rollover D2? @Sunburst Toucan I would highly suggest roleclaiming. And further explaining your octo votes
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Was there a monster among the voters of Octopus? Quote Ig switches to Rhino. No matter what they say, looks like self-pres to me. Iguana votes Rhino after a train forms on them. Distancing. Iguana train somewhat falls apart. But Iguana: Quote My prediction is everyone gets cold feet about Octo at the last minute and switches to me. * 2 hours ago, Melon Dingo said: Can someone link Ivory Drsgonfly's roleclaim? I think maybe we should revisit an e!Axolotl discussion. Quote Oxblood Beagle (Levin) attacked by Saboteurs, but survived. ^ Ivory Dragonfly Quote Mint Heron was attacked by a Saboteur! They survived! ^ Violet Axolotl
Quartz Zebra Posted January 11 Posted January 11 (edited) 2 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said: It was nearing evening as H.E.A.R.T.H put down the Way of Kings and finally returned to solving. The text captivated him - so abstract, so anecdotal, it was almost like a handbook of humanity. But H.E.A.R.T.H could not spend the rest of his existence reading. There was work to be done. There were lives to fight for. And so H.E.A.R.T.H set down the book, and opened the ship videofeeds to review yet once again the events of the previous day. In all the chaos, of the following he felt confident: there was a monster among the voters of Octopus. The question was which one. First, H.E.A.R.T.H proposed an answer to this question. It was possible that the direction was submitted during the day - but Toucan only saw it in the night, and instinctively took action. Now, for the events of the day (paying attention as well to Zebra, who appeared to be a common suspicion): Zebra's first appearance came before the Octopus train, and said nothing. Toucan implies being vanilla. Toucan, considering current circumstances, willing to solidify a roleclaim? Iguana votes Toucan after a train forms on them (distancing?) with the night vote reasoning. Zebra RPs (quite an active player for one who contributes so little, H.E.A.R.T.H notes). Weasel comes to Toucan's defense, votes Octopus. However, H.E.A.R.T.H was inclined to trust Weasel for now considering anti-Kanga behavior the first day - although that perspective could change. For reference, on the first day, Weasel added a third accusation to Kanga while there was a two-way tie with four accusation each between Dragonfly and Axolotl. If Toucan were to flip evil, however, H.E.A.R.T.H would find Weasel highly suspicious for their activity on the second day. Toucan also votes Octopus, using Weasel's reasoning. Noteworthy they did not vote Iguana, the other main candidate. @Sunburst Toucan was there a particular reason you found Octopus more suspicious than Iguana? Beagle brings down pressure on Iguana. Ele votes Octopus - but we know Ele is clear (thanks Octo). Octopus votes Toucan. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (3): Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (2): Sunburst Toucan, Indigo Weasel Saffron Iguana (1): Mint Heron Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly If Toucan is indeed evil, this was where things should get interesting. H.E.A.R.T.H retracted his vote to accuse Weasel. Zebra gives reads - dislikes Ig, dislikes Toucan, dislikes Octopus, votes Octopus. This would be a reasonable move to protect Ig. Toucan train somewhat falls apart. Toucan says they had no reasoning to vote Axolotl. Axolotl votes Octo. Flamingo voted Octo. Heron voted Octo. Hmmmmmmmmmm Ele votes Octo again. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (1): Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (6): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Quartz Zebra, Mint Heron, Indigo Weasel Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly Mint Heron (2): Melon Dingo, Magenta Albatross Melon Dingo (1): Taupe Gecko Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Flamingo retracts Octo vote. Ig switches to Rhino. No matter what they say, looks like self-pres to me. Zebra switches from Octo to Toucan. Dragonfly revives Ig train. H.E.A.R.T.H followed. Dragonfly left it again. Ig train begins to rise again. Ig follows my behest to vote Toucan. Heron votes Toucan as well. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Mint Heron (1): Melon Dingo Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Sunburst Toucan (4): Quartz Zebra, Taupe Gecko, Saffron Iguana, Mint Heron Onyx Flamingo (1): Oxblood Beagle Sapphire Elephant (1): Magenta Albatross Saffron Iguana (1): Ivory Dragonfly Dingo votes Iguana. Rhino votes Toucan. Says ambivalent between them and Ig, just wants to break tie with Octo. Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Sunburst Toucan (5) : Quartz Zebra, Saffron Iguana, Mint Heron, Plum Rhinoceros, Taupe Gecko Saffron Iguana (2): Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo Sapphire Elephant (1): Magenta Albatross Beagle votes Iguana. 4/5/3 Albatross votes Ig. 4/5/4 H.E.A.R.T.H removed his vote from Toucan. 4/4/4 Octo votes Toucan in self-pres. 4/5/4 Flamingo votes Iguana to preserve tie. Not evil. 4/5/5 Heron votes Iguana. 4/4/6 ... So that was crazy. Anyways If H.E.A.R.T.H wanted to stand by his stance on the Octo train, that meant a monster among Weasel/Toucan/Zebra/Axolotl/Flamingo. He was willing to soft-clear Weasel, Flamingo, and Axolotl, Flam for their end of day madness, Axolotl for staying as the leading train far too long day 1 and Weasel for day 1 anti-Kanga behavior. That left Toucan and Zebra. H.E.A.R.T.H was willing to kill either. But he was nearly sure there was a monster among the pair. Just thought of something @Quartz Zebra were you online during rollover D2? SUBJECT: Y'all are accusin' me?? H.E.A.R.T.H., you’ve got a real knack for reading the metadata, don’t ya? Looking at the ship’s logs like they’re a holy text. Was I online during the Day 2 rollover? No, that's been the one time I've gotten to sleep on this godforsaken ship! But here’s the thing about being an engineer: I don't go kickin' every pipe that rattles. I was on the Chiji train because the math seemed to lead there, and when I saw the Ophelia-clog starting to form, I shifted my wrench. I didn't jump into the "end-of-day madness" because when three different valves are bursting at once, the worst thing you can do is start turning handles at random. I stayed steady on my read. You call me "active but contributing little"? That’s 'cause I’m busy making sure the Lurcher-lines don't cross and blow us all to the Spiritual Realm! And also, what do you mean Echo? I'm the darned lurcher who saved Zense! If you’re lookin' for a monster, look for the ones who were changing their minds every five minutes to keep the tie alive. I picked my pipe and I stuck to it. Stay safe, and don't touch my doodads -Finch Edited January 11 by Quartz Zebra
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