Predictions for the Political Future of Scadrial

[ElectrumSavant he/him]

(Note: Contains worldbuilding spoilers for all Mistborn novels)

Esteemed faculty of the Elendel University Political Science Department,

With the variety of world-shaking changes and discoveries that have occurred over the last decade (the widespread adoption of electricity, the discovery of the Malwish Consortium, the Bilming Affair, etc.), many scholars and public figures have asked the question "what is next?". This analysis will attempt to make predictions for future political developments over the next few decades, based on our current knowledge of political science.

Colonization

The Basin's population has been booming over the last decade in spite of setbacks like the 342 famine. This population growth can be attributed to declining infant mortality rates, innovations in medicine, and improving quality of life as well as the influence of Survivorist tenets. The increase in population can be seen in changing demographic patterns, with most residents of the Basin now living outside of Elendel proper and increasingly developed settlements in the Northern Roughs. The discovery of the Malwish to the south is likely to encourage a race for resources and land claims. Attached is a map of likely settlement locations in Northern Scadrial, as well the most likely dividing line I anticipate will be established between Skaa and Malwish claims. Skaa priorities will include significant historical/religious locations in the former Final Empire (particularly in Old Terris and the Central Dominance), as well as significant resource extraction sites (such as the historical locations of the Lord Ruler's resource caches), and locations relevant for future trade with the Malwish and/or Maskless. I anticipate the Southern Isles and the former Central Dominance will be the first new locations to be settled.

Colonization will likely reveal some unexpected surprises--the existence of the Malwish suggests that not all survivors of the Catacendre were gathered by Harmony to Elendel, and several as-now unknown groups might have been inhabiting lands in the former Final Empire continuously since the Catacendre. I consider existing settlements in Farmost, the Northern Crescent, and the Southern Crescent particularly likely, with the Shrouded Isles most likely of all. I would also expect some small communities of Basin settlers in the Roughs or beyond to exist that have been forgotten by the Basin.

Domestic Politics

Since the Bilming Affair, Basin politicians have been deliberating about major political reforms to enfranchise Skaa outside of Elendel. The most notable proposal to date was sponsored by Lord Waxilium Ladrian and included, among other things, calls for a National Assembly. I anticipate this proposal or one like it to be adopted. I expect that the National Assembly would start off with a system of indirect representation, with each city government responsible for determining who would fill the seats allocated to the city in the Assembly, and over time for this to morph into directly elected Assemblymen. If Nobles have formal influence in the Assembly, as in the Elendel Senate, I expect they would gradually lose power as magnates gain political power, with the seats reserved for Nobles eventually devolving into a regulatory Upper House. Elendel would likely push for a system of apportioning National Assembly seats that favors population, while Outer Cities and the Roughs would initially prefer set numbers of representatives based on geography. As the population outside of Elendel booms, these preferences will switch. Since Elendel is in the bargaining position, I would expect some kind of compromise to be decided on that still is mostly based on population. Elendel and the Skaa in general have a history of indirectly elected chief executives, so I expect a parliamentary system with a Prime Minister would be more likely than a presidential system. It is possible there would be an indirectly elected president at first but that this later becomes a subject of the popular vote.

In the past there has been an inchoate or nonexistent party system in Elendel, likely because of a high degree of personalism in Elendel politics. But I would expect the National Assembly to prompt formal parties to organize in order to compete for seats on a national level. Elendel currently uses a single-member district plurality system, which if adopted on a national level would encourage stabilization around a two-party system. The informal Supremacy and Independence factions that exist presently would likely evolve into formal parties, maybe retaining the old symbols (Lions and Tortoises). The names of these parties are very likely to change, as they were based on the now-moot issue of national political reform, but I will refer to them by these current names. One potential map of electoral districts is included below, with likely Supremacist districts in Green and Independents in Red).

The Supremacy Party, originating in the industrialized Elendel, would encourage political centralism, industrialization, and urbanization. The outsized influence of urban workers would encourage policies of business regulation, labor unions, tariffs on Malwish imports, and bigger government supported by higher taxes on the rich. Since Elendel is more culturally homogenous than the rest of the Basin and is most directly exposed to Malwish trade, I expect more explicitly Survivorist confessionalism as well as anti-Malwish nationalism. With the Supremacy Party becoming the party of urban workers I would expect it to eventually spread to the Outer Cities as they continue to urbanize.

The Independence Party, originating in the more rural Outer Cities, would encourage political federalism, agriculture, mining, and active colonization of the Roughs. With labor less likely to unionize in the Outer Cities I would anticipate policies of laissez-faire economics, smaller government with lower taxes, and lower tariffs. The greater religious diversity outside of Elendel suggests a policy of secularism. As settlers move into land traditionally inhabited by Koloss tribes I might expect a culture of anti-Koloss racism to develop among Independents, with Koloss being widely disenfranchised through literacy tests, poll taxes, or similar methods. (Although not recorded in history books, it seems very likely that Koloss survived the Catacendre within the Elendel Basin and were violently forced out to the Roughs by settlers).

Foreign Policy

As previously mentioned, I anticipate a rapid race to expand and claim territory between the Skaa and Malwish. An arms and technology race is assured, but I don't anticipate the Malwish to be the aggressors in the first war between our peoples. The Malwish seem very worried about "The Maskless" to the extreme south and are unlikely to initiate a northern war that leaves them vulnerable to the Maskless. Whatever their conflict with the Malwish, it will be vital to our foreign policy to open up a correspondence with the Maskless so that we can play the two nations off each other, a tactic similar to the one used by the Counselor of Gods during the Siege of Luthadel. Malwish possession of the Bands of Mourning will likewise prevent the Basin from initiating war with the Malwish, meaning that until the situation changes a long-term Cold War seems the most likely scenario.

 

I appreciate your consideration and am as ever your obedient servant,

Porthos Duhame