106 replies to this topic

[Chaos]

I, for one, have always believed Hoid to be the one who wrote the letter (the epigraphs in Part Two of Way of Kings). Happyman, over at TWG, rigorously described his rationale on the subject, so I thought I'd share it with you to analyze.

It was made as response to this comment, from Munin:

But the author could be any other Shardholder, really. Or anyone else with the ability to travel between worlds.

Oh, I'm firmly of the belief that the person writing the letter is Hoid.  That interlude is the best evidence around, although there is plenty more.  You're overstating your case, Munin.

The person writing the letter has the following attributes:

(1) Knew the Shardbearers personally before they bore the shards.  This is supported by the references to Ati and Rayse.

(2) Has observed the events on multiple worlds.  References to Sel and Ati make this clear.

(3) Has a quest of some sort, some goal he is trying to reach, which involves personal motivations against Rayse and Bavadin.

(4) Is being chased by the 17th shard, but has successfully laid down a false trail for them.

(5) Seriously needs help.

(6) Is directly involved in the events of the war that is presumably coming.

Hoid satisfies all of these conditions easily.  This is more rigid than you might think; Sazed, for instance, is ruled out by condition (1).  Most entities who would satisfy conditions 1-3 and 5-6 would have to be somebody new, somebody we have never yet seen.  This isn't impossible, but we just don't know enough to propose anything.  Condition (5) does suggest that the author is not uberpowerful, but given what Odium has done this probably doesn't mean much.

By contrast, condition 4 is ridiculously specific, and exactly what we see in the interlude under discussion, where the searchers look for Hoid by name.  This point alone suggests Hoid as the author, barring really strong evidence otherwise.

Also, Hoid has been seen to directly interfere on Shardworlds, whereas we have no canonical evidence of other interference, so condition 6 suggests Hoid much more strongly than it does any other entity.  Condition 3 would go a long way to explaining Hoid's behavior in other books.

In addition, just how many planethoppers are there floating around?  All we've seen is Hoid and the 17th shard.  The reference pool really is quite small here.

Thoughts? I think the logic is fairly sound.

[Silus - Shard of Flame]

I'm having a hard time trying to decide whether Brandon put these in there to throw a bone to the theorizers or as a red herring for us.  A lot can change between now and the end of the series to change everything we think about this first book.

[Chaos]

Indeed. And, analyzing the writing style, I don't know if it sounds Hoid enough. Remember how important writing style was to discovering who the Hero of Ages was? Brandon sure pays attention to it. This doesn't scream like it was written by Hoid to me.

But, I still think it's written by Hoid, since the logic makes sense too much. If I'm in a rationalizing mood (like most days), I'd say that he simply sounds dire because he's in dire straights. That rationalization does sound a little weak, however.

[leinton]

One reason I don't think it's a Shardholder is because I have a hard time thinking of a god writing a letter. It just seems kind of silly to me. Shouldn't a god have better ways to communicate than writing? For this reason and many others, I support the Hoid theory.

[Chaos]

LOL. That's a very valid point.

The argument continues on TWG, which now I'm just blatantly copying. I'm citing sources, that makes that okay, right? By the way, the link is http://www.timewaste...p?topic=7788.60

Maybe I'm missing something about Hoid, but how do we know that he fulfills conditions 1 , 3, 5, and 6? So far, he hasn't seemed like he was seeking help. As far as I'm aware, he hasn't expressed personal knowledge of any of the shardholders. He hasn't mentioned any motivations involving Rayse or Bavadin. And we don't know for sure if the people looking for him were from the 17th shard.

And it's unclear if he's even directly involved. At best, he's been an observer so far. A sarcastic observer, true, but that's basically it.

Happyman's awesome response:

Hmmm.  My support for #1 and #3 are from Brandon's statements about Hoid, not from the text of the books.  Apparently, Brandon said Hoid was there when Adonalsium shattered, which makes him a very good fit for #1.  He also said that Hoid had his own goals and motivations that he was pursuing in the background of the other shard-world stories.  Basically, Hoid is not a passive character.  He just never ran into the main characters before except in passing.  That's why #3 is a good fit.

Note especially his discussion with Kaladin, where he said he came "there" (presumably, Roshar) in order to find an old friend, but now he spends all his time avoiding him.  (This is compatible with him avoiding Odium, or even the person the letter was to.)  Hoid is doing something.  He's not just an observer.  Or do you think he name-drops Adonalsium just for kicks?  (Incidentally, that negates your argument about him not knowing anything about the shards.  Anyone who knows that name is involved.)  No, regardless of what else you think, Hoid is an active character.

#5 is compatible with Hoid.  It doesn't rule him out.  I was just trying to carefully distill the contents of the epigraphs.

#6 is also compatible with Hoid, especially the way he showed up in the right place and the right time to greet the last Herald as he returned.  Again, it doesn't rule him out.  His actions, when interpreted in the context of #6, make sense.  Yes, he could have been there for some other reason (do you really believe that?)  I mean, his whole conversation in the epilogue is headed towards the ending of the book---he was waiting for the Herald to show up, and seemed dismayed at the trouble he was bringing with him.  No, Hoid is up to his ears in the War, even if you don't accept that he's the author of the epigraphs.

As for the people searching not being the 17th shard, give me a break.  Get real.  I've seen this kind of argument before on the internet, and I don't intend to get stuck in it because it doesn't go anywhere.  Can't prove a negative, that kind of thing.  You can't prove to me that I'm not a hallucinating turnip, either.  Seriously pointless.  I grant you the technicality:  Brandon didn't come and say outright that the searchers were from the 17th shard; he just implied it heavily.  So what?  That doesn't change the fact that that's who they are and Hoid is who they're are chasing.  As I said, #4 is the real kicker for showing who the sender is, and this is why.

This is a classic case of Occam's razor.  Assuming that the author is Hoid doesn't answer all the mysteries, but all the pieces we do have, fit.  Assuming it is someone else leaves pieces dangling all over the place, to absolutely no purpose, narrative or in-world logic.  Rather than having two sets of planet-hoppers (Hoid, 17th shard), we would have three (Hoid, 17th shard, whoever the searchers in pure lake were).  Rather than having one set of planet-hopping searchers lost, we would have two lost groups of searchers, in almost identical situations, just with different targets.  (One would be hunting for Hoid, and the other for the mysterious author.)  Hoid would be on Roshar trying to stop Odium (assuming Hoid is doing anything esle seems... unlikely), and so would this unknown author.  We create double sets of extremely distinctive traits simply for the sake of not making assumptions... not bloody likely.

[Ryan]

FYI, I've copied the epigraphs to the Wiki, complete with a link to this topic. Feel free to contribute to that page.

[FirstSelector]

While I believe that Hoid did in fact write the letter, I'm not sure that the lake searchers are from the 17th shard.  From what  I read, Brandon was pretty clear (for him) that they were Raoden and the Dula (sans books and I can't remember the names correctly).  There was a fairly conclusive thread about this on timewasters.

While it sure doesn't fit Occam's Razor to have two people searching for Hoid at the same time, unless someone can find the Elantris cameo in WoK that Brandon mentioned, I conclude that there are in fact more than one group of people searching for Hoid.

[Munin]

While I believe that Hoid did in fact write the letter, I'm not sure that the lake searchers are from the 17th shard.  From what  I read, Brandon was pretty clear (for him) that they were Raoden and the Dula (sans books and I can't remember the names correctly).  There was a fairly conclusive thread about this on timewasters.

He also basically admitted that the people in the interlude were members of the 17th Shard.

Well, he said that a Dula could be a member of the group, which to me is heavily indicative.

Is it an absolute certainty? No. But I'd say it's very, very likely.

While it sure doesn't fit Occam's Razor to have two people searching for Hoid at the same time, unless someone can find the Elantris cameo in WoK that Brandon mentioned, I conclude that there are in fact more than one group of people searching for Hoid.

It's the first interlude. Around page 164, I believe.

[Shivertongue]

While I believe that Hoid did in fact write the letter, I'm not sure that the lake searchers are from the 17th shard.  From what  I read, Brandon was pretty clear (for him) that they were Raoden and the Dula (sans books and I can't remember the names correctly).  There was a fairly conclusive thread about this on timewasters.

While it sure doesn't fit Occam's Razor to have two people searching for Hoid at the same time, unless someone can find the Elantris cameo in WoK that Brandon mentioned, I conclude that there are in fact more than one group of people searching for Hoid.

I can't really think of a reason Raoden and Kula would be searching for Hoid, unless they were associated with Seventeenth Shard in some way. Hoid's cameo in Elantris was very small, and if I recall correctly, the only major character he interacted with was Sarene.

[zas678]

I think that Galladon might be looking for Hoid because of whatever happens in book 2.  I, unfortunately, don't think that it's Raoden with him, but Kiin's son, Kaise, grown up. Why not Raoden? Because he's a king and an Elantrian, and he wouldn't leave his people (or Sarene) unless he absolutely had to. And while searching for a meddling planet hopper may be intriging, I don't think Raoden would find that he has to.

Why Kaise? Elantris will revolve around Kiin's twin children, two, because Kaise's not as good at picking up languages as his sister Daorn is (Thinker speaks the language poorly), and because he seems like the kind of person to be Thinker.

Why Galladon? Who else is a grumpy Dula?

[Earendil]

I've been wondering about this ever since I finished the book.  Honestly, I think there's only two valid options - the letter is either written by Hoid, or addressed to Hoid.  The mention of the 17th shard makes it seem more likely that it is Hoid writing the letter, but the general tone (trying to convince someone who has been basically observing to take a proactive role) makes sense when you consider it addressed to Hoid.  After all, every other time we've seen Hoid, he's been a cameo player, surrounding himself with the action without really getting involved, which has changed dramatically in the stormlight archive.  Also, the 'friend' addressed in the letter has 'essentially immortal'.

Of course, the dry, witty tone of the epigraphs should probably be enough to convince me that they are written by Hoid.  Which begs the question, who is he trying to get involved?  Whichever of the shards organized the 17th shard (though that does seem beneath them)?  There's obviously still a lot going on that we don't understand. ;D

[Andrew the Great]

A slight correction needs to be made here  - Every other time we've seen Hoid, he's been not doing something particularly important. However, we've seen through the eyes of the people who are probably most significant on that planet at that time, so Hoid apparently has an uncanny knack for finding the right people. Also, we have absolutely no idea what he's been doing. If I recall correctly, in the first draft of Well of Ascension, it was his footprints that led Vin to the Well. The point is, we don't see him doing anything important because the characters don't see him doing anything important. There's nothing to say that Hoid's problems are strictly related to the characters at the time. He could be doing something universe-altering and we'd never know.

Just the fact that Hoid appears in every book is a big point against saying he has a nonintervention policy in my book. Wow, that's a terrible pun, and I didn't even mean it to be....

I still vote for the letter being written by Hoid.

[Chaos]

I like to believe that Raoden is Thinker, but he certainly doesn't have to be.

While I believe that Hoid did in fact write the letter, I'm not sure that the lake searchers are from the 17th shard.  From what  I read, Brandon was pretty clear (for him) that they were Raoden and the Dula (sans books and I can't remember the names correctly).  There was a fairly conclusive thread about this on timewasters.

While it sure doesn't fit Occam's Razor to have two people searching for Hoid at the same time, unless someone can find the Elantris cameo in WoK that Brandon mentioned, I conclude that there are in fact more than one group of people searching for Hoid.

I can't really think of a reason Raoden and Kula would be searching for Hoid, unless they were associated with Seventeenth Shard in some way. Hoid's cameo in Elantris was very small, and if I recall correctly, the only major character he interacted with was Sarene.

Perhaps King Raoden eventually discovered evidence of Odium's involvement on Sel, which worried him. Then, he encountered either the letter writer or the addressee, which gave him more information on this whole Shard business, and eventually created the Seventeenth Shard.

If the Seventeenth Shard is a separate entity, this fits. I'd think that the Elantrians on Roshar here need not be tied down with the same nonintervention policy that the letter's addressee is apparently bound by. Very clearly they are intervening in the process of searching for Hoid.

"But why would the letter addressee give Raoden/Elantrians this sort of information? Wouldn't that imply intervening, and thus imply Hoid being the addressee giving them the knowledge?"

Well, they probably wouldn't be searching for Hoid if he's the letter's addressee. I think it's fairly easy to assume that Hoid is either the writer or the addressee. In this case, it makes more sense for Hoid to be writing the letter.

Giving knowledge away isn't inherently intervening. It's using that knowledge which is. The Seventeenth Shard Elantrians are probably not bound strictly as the addressee is, but the addressee has them convinced that Hoid is doing something wrong. Thus, they need to find Hoid.

Meanwhile, Hoid is laughing at them for being oh so far ahead of their efforts.

[leinton]

I bet the 17th Shard has been around for a while. I think it more likely that if indeed Raoden is Thinker, then he just joined it when he got the info. It would be like him to do something like that. Kayana.

[KChan]

Also, keep in mind that Elantrians are effectively immortal (at least, compared to normal humans). Sarene could be long dead and their child, or grandchild, or great-grandchild, etc., could be ruling Arelon by this point, allowing Raoden to join the searchers and pursue Hoid.

As for comparison, the voice and tone used in the letter strike me as very similar to those used by Hoid. Maybe not so much when he's being Wit in public - though some of the, well, wit is similar - but take a look at his conversation with Kaladin out on the plateau, or the exchange with the guards at the end of the book. Just looking at the linguistic patterns makes me think those words could easily have been uttered/written by the same person.

[happyman]

Also, keep in mind that Elantrians are effectively immortal (at least, compared to normal humans). Sarene could be long dead and their child, or grandchild, or great-grandchild, etc., could be ruling Arelon by this point, allowing Raoden to join the searchers and pursue Hoid.

As for comparison, the voice and tone used in the letter strike me as very similar to those used by Hoid. Maybe not so much when he's being Wit in public - though some of the, well, wit is similar - but take a look at his conversation with Kaladin out on the plateau, or the exchange with the guards at the end of the book. Just looking at the linguistic patterns makes me think those words could easily have been uttered/written by the same person.

One thing about tone is that it does tend to shift depending on context.  There is a lot of history between the letter writer and its addressee.  We've never seen Hoid before when he was talking to somebody who could reasonably be considered an equal or who he wasn't trying to subtly manipulate.

I would add at this point that I don't think Elantrian's are as immortal as people have been thinking.  They live a long time, yes, but even twice as long as a normal person, with health for most of that time, would be impressive in my book.  We know they remain mortal in the strict sense of the term---Galladon's father died of a heart attack.

[Andrew the Great]

And they can be injured and/or killed. They may or may not ever die of old age, though, so if they kept themselves in good health, it's theoretically possible that they could live forever.

And following that same logic that leads us to declare the Elantrians aren't immortal, neither are the Shards..... after all, it appears they can be killed. Though again, that appears to be a HUGE difference from Elantrians.

Come to think of it, if Elantrians do hold Splinters of Shards, as I'm now beginning to think, then it would actually make a lot of sense for their "immortality" to work the same way as that of Shards, just on a smaller scale. Hmmmm.....

[Django Je]

I agree that Elantians would have to hold splinters of shards. I mean, after all Aona was destroyed just like the Almighty and the Almighty splintered and his power went to swords and armor. Why couldn't it go into people to?

[happyman]

And they can be injured and/or killed. They may or may not ever die of old age, though, so if they kept themselves in good health, it's theoretically possible that they could live forever.

And following that same logic that leads us to declare the Elantrians aren't immortal, neither are the Shards..... after all, it appears they can be killed. Though again, that appears to be a HUGE difference from Elantrians.

Come to think of it, if Elantrians do hold Splinters of Shards, as I'm now beginning to think, then it would actually make a lot of sense for their "immortality" to work the same way as that of Shards, just on a smaller scale. Hmmmm.....

My suspicion is that Elantrian's are long-lived but not as immortal as the Shards, or even as immortal as the Returned.  This is partly because otherwise they would have overrun the entire world of Sel by now if they were truly immortal, even functionally like the Shards.  It is also because we see that they were much more human close-up than they seemed at first.  They had funerals and heart attacks and a religion of some sort, not to mention children and families.  They're powerful when the magic functions, yes, but the impression I got was that they were still pretty human and limited compared to Shards or even Hoid.

I would note that the Returned are functionally immortal with enough Breath to sustain them, but that Breath requirement stops them from overrunning the world.  Different magic, different constraints.

Also, the Shardholders are immortal until they are killed.  I suspect the Elantrians are more mortal than that, for the reasons given above.

[zas678]

One thing to remember is that all the Elantrians were wiped out ten years ago.