Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Just now, Mint Heron said: What's your take on both Seekers scanning Zebra as V? Like I think what I struggle with is the weirdness of Meerkat's claim but our theory is that Meerkat was trying to save E!Zebra and that becomes way weirder with Dingo also claiming a V scan on Zebra. I guess Meerkat was counting on no other Seeker existing, so it's possible they said Zebra, so that if Meerkat is caught, then we look towards Zebra and that's a potential misexe there. In which case, this would help their other teammate go a bit under the radar
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 ...Do we see a three Elim remaining world? I'm asking because I think if we don't, then Zebra is fairly cross-validated as Village regardless. Then no matter what, just don't exe Zebra. I'm trying to imagine the optimal route forward and IDK anymore. I don't love the pragmatic argument but kind of get it. The alternative is to just do Meerkat as the weak link in that chain. Quote Sunburst Toucan (1): Melon Dingo Scarlet Octopus (6): Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Quartz Zebra, Onyx Flamingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Quartz Zebra (1): Violet Axolotl Plum Rhinoceros (2): Sunburst Toucan, Magenta Albatross Salmon Meerkat (2): Mint Heron, Oxblood Beagle In fairness the Ocho train doesn't really need either of us, they're very much killing Ocho regardless, it's got a major monopoly at this juncture though I guess some of it depends on how the others feel when they wake up in the morning.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: ...Do we see a three Elim remaining world? I'm asking because I think if we don't, then Zebra is fairly cross-validated as Village regardless. Then no matter what, just don't exe Zebra. I'm trying to imagine the optimal route forward and IDK anymore. I don't love the pragmatic argument but kind of get it. The alternative is to just do Meerkat as the weak link in that chain. In fairness the Ocho train doesn't really need either of us, they're very much killing Ocho regardless, it's got a major monopoly at this juncture though I guess some of it depends on how the others feel when they wake up in the morning. Not entirely impossible to have a 3 elim remaining world if we take into account that there's multiple Lurchers and so, the elims have a more difficult time actually getting in kills, but I also doubt it since that's way too many starting elims and that they also have a Rioter to boot Also, Octo train has a bunch of people that are likely to be there before rollover, so I think it's something that can still be deliberated on
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Just now, Oxblood Beagle said: Not entirely impossible to have a 3 elim remaining world if we take into account that there's multiple Lurchers and so, the elims have a more difficult time actually getting in kills, but I also doubt it since that's way too many starting elims and that they also have a Rioter to boot Fair. If so... At this point I feel like the Zebra and Alb scans are probably the most secure of the scans we have. I would probably put Toucan next - still fairly secure but kinda weak. Gecko is a weird case because Gecko was scanned but Gecko also we have independent reason to think V. So... Quote Scanned Village: Zebra, Alb, Toucan, Gecko Looks Village: Dragonfly, Beagle, Weasel, Dingo, Flamingo, Axl Frick Knows: Lion, Cham ???: Rhino, Ocho, Meerkat I accept RE: your Rhino arguments, but that points to Ocho and Meerkat being the two weak links in there. I think there's an argument for almost anyone else. Lion and Cham we need to resolve at some point too because they were probably inert last Night when stuff was happening. Very coarse-grained because I don't got the energy to tier this, sorry. Oh. Cripes. @Indigo Weasel You are aware that there is a claimed V!Coinshot scan on Toucan, yeah? Presume that pushes you to E!Ocho as well? Edited to add: 5 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Also, Octo train has a bunch of people that are likely to be there before rollover, so I think it's something that can still be deliberated on Yeah fair. I really did not expect this cycle to get this happening. Icl I actually am thrilled and smiling because I did not believe a game could surprise me anymore, so it's like getting a special Christmas present or something. This is a genuinely wtf distro and I think that's kinda cool because I thought I'd seen most Tyrian distros. ...It's just also less funny when I'm dealing with it
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: Fair. If so... At this point I feel like the Zebra and Alb scans are probably the most secure of the scans we have. I would probably put Toucan next - still fairly secure but kinda weak. Gecko is a weird case because Gecko was scanned but Gecko also we have independent reason to think V. So... I accept RE: your Rhino arguments, but that points to Ocho and Meerkat being the two weak links in there. I think there's an argument for almost anyone else. Lion and Cham we need to resolve at some point too because they were probably inert last Night when stuff was happening. Very coarse-grained because I don't got the energy to tier this, sorry. Oh. Cripes. @Indigo Weasel You are aware that there is a claimed V!Coinshot scan on Toucan, yeah? Presume that pushes you to E!Ocho as well? Agree with this, I think for me basically, if Meerkat flips e!, then I'm more inclined to look at Lion and Cham first since everyone else, I feel like I have some level of trust either socially, mechanically, or both. That might also explain the perceived elim complacency, since if it's Lion/Cham, they're basically already 1 down from the go and didn't have as much leeway to actually sway things.
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Agree with this, I think for me basically, if Meerkat flips e!, then I'm more inclined to look at Lion and Cham first since everyone else, I feel like I have some level of trust either socially, mechanically, or both. That might also explain the perceived elim complacency, since if it's Lion/Cham, they're basically already 1 down from the go and didn't have as much leeway to actually sway things. If Ocho flips E where do you go? 'Cause the other issue here is if Meerkat flips E, even looking at Lion and Cham, we are still in a landscape with 4 putative V!Lurchers, 4 putative V!Mistborn, 2 putative V!Coinshots and 1 putative V!Seeker (on the start). That's still too much firepower and I don't know what Lion or Cham could flip that quite justifies this.
Indigo Weasel Posted January 12 Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Fair. If so... At this point I feel like the Zebra and Alb scans are probably the most secure of the scans we have. I would probably put Toucan next - still fairly secure but kinda weak. Gecko is a weird case because Gecko was scanned but Gecko also we have independent reason to think V. So... I accept RE: your Rhino arguments, but that points to Ocho and Meerkat being the two weak links in there. I think there's an argument for almost anyone else. Lion and Cham we need to resolve at some point too because they were probably inert last Night when stuff was happening. Very coarse-grained because I don't got the energy to tier this, sorry. Oh. Cripes. @Indigo Weasel You are aware that there is a claimed V!Coinshot scan on Toucan, yeah? Presume that pushes you to E!Ocho as well? Edited to add: Yeah fair. I really did not expect this cycle to get this happening. Icl I actually am thrilled and smiling because I did not believe a game could surprise me anymore, so it's like getting a special Christmas present or something. This is a genuinely wtf distro and I think that's kinda cool because I thought I'd seen most Tyrian distros. ...It's just also less funny when I'm dealing with it No, I was not, my reasoning for Octopus was not that, though that does make me feel more justified in doing so
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: If Ocho flips E where do you go? 'Cause the other issue here is if Meerkat flips E, even looking at Lion and Cham, we are still in a landscape with 4 putative V!Lurchers, 4 putative V!Mistborn, 2 putative V!Coinshots and 1 putative V!Seeker (on the start). That's still too much firepower and I don't know what Lion or Cham could flip that quite justifies this. If Ocho flips E, I probably am going to relook at Rhino, though I guess it is a bit more confusing to me if Ocho is E. Iguana and Rhino both kind of showed suspicion toward Ocho D1 and then did a heel-turn D2 and defended them. I don't know if two elims wanted to do the exact same thing on both days. I don't know about the distro, I think I'll probably think more on it, since I feel like my initial prediction on it ended up being quite a lot farther than what it actually is turning out to be
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: did a heel-turn D2 Bruv, you just simultaneously popped and confused me. And now I'm gonna keep reading. Edited to add: 9 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said: No, I was not, my reasoning for Octopus was not that, though that does make me feel more justified in doing so Ok then for reference: Flam claimed to have scanned Toucan as v!Coinshot, and Ocho confirmed that Toucan claimed Coinshot to them in a PM last cycle/Night. Edited January 12 by Mint Heron
Melon Dingo Posted January 12 Posted January 12 30 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: So they do have a Smoker Why Zebra and not me since you were pretty sure I was E? Well as I said in thread I realized I was tunneling and decided just to ignore you. I didnt want to pick someone who died again and wanted to pick someone in POE. Rhino had most votes. I voted on Elephant, that left Zebra or Axolotl. Everyone else thought Axolotl village so Zebra. 33 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Fair yeah your claim had no context so I was a bit... "is he joking again or not" about it. Well, I was hoping it'd be subtle enough to raise questions and impact votes but still make people think I may not be a seeker. Idk maybe i missed that line maybe that line wasnt possible 35 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I think Weasel is kind of partly asking also because that's flak it's surprising a V!Seeker might be willing to draw, given the significance of the role. Oh... well... my bad... I thought everyone knew who I was at this point lol. but regardless I didnt really think itd draw that much attention as it was a joke. And then after I thought it'd deter attacks as I was an advocate for self protects. 37 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: We go back to the "probably one CS is not actually V?" Wait Are there 2 coinshots?? That doesnt line up with kills last night i dont think Im super out of it and gonna sleep soon. If people cant help me vote i may just roll a die Im definitely not on for rollover
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: Wait Are there 2 coinshots?? That doesnt line up with kills last night i dont think I'm willing to catch you up on what you need - same with Weasel because I kinda am a bit at a loss given the claims flying around. I would say don't roll a die, if you are RNGing, cointoss between Meerkat and Ocho because those are the two main candidates and unless someone makes a weird claim, that's where the decisions will go subsequently. Flam claimed to be a Village Kandra who ate Kanga. I can't confirm it, all I can confirm is that someone beat me to eating Kanga. Flam's N2 scan was Toucan, a Village Coinshot. Toucan has not been online to confirm it but Ocho claims Toucan PMed them to claim Coinshot to them, so we do have two players corroborating the claim, and it fits Toucan's behaviour. It doesn't line up with kills, so either Toucan took a shot at Ele and just assumed they both hit the same target (in this world, Ocho is Spiked and put in the kill so could not shoot due to actions economy and lied and claimed the Coinshot kill), or Toucan has been holstering the kill all along (IIRC Toucan did not claim the N1 Axl shot.) Edited to add: Fundamentally Weasel thinks the vote should be on Ocho, and Beagle thinks it should be on Meerkat. I can't help you make it two people because I can't decide myself, having been very confused by all the claims. EDITED TO ADD 2: YO TOUCAN WHO YOU SHOOT N1/N2 DID YOU CLAIM TO OCHO OCHO SAYS YOU DID HELP US TOUCAN UR OUR ONLY HOPE @Sunburst Toucan Edited January 12 by Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I'm willing to catch you up on what you need - same with Weasel because I kinda am a bit at a loss given the claims flying around. I would say don't roll a die, if you are RNGing, cointoss between Meerkat and Ocho because those are the two main candidates and unless someone makes a weird claim, that's where the decisions will go subsequently. Flam claimed to be a Village Kandra who ate Kanga. I can't confirm it, all I can confirm is that someone beat me to eating Kanga. Flam's N2 scan was Toucan, a Village Coinshot. Toucan has not been online to confirm it but Ocho claims Toucan PMed them to claim Coinshot to them, so we do have two players corroborating the claim, and it fits Toucan's behaviour. It doesn't line up with kills, so either Toucan took a shot at Ele and just assumed they both hit the same target (in this world, Ocho is Spiked and put in the kill so could not shoot due to actions economy and lied and claimed the Coinshot kill), or Toucan has been holstering the kill all along (IIRC Toucan did not claim the N1 Axl shot.) Edited to add: Fundamentally Weasel thinks the vote should be on Ocho, and Beagle thinks it should be on Meerkat. I can't help you make it two people because I can't decide myself, having been very confused by all the claims. Also, partially why I lean Meerkat more over Ocho is that I can believe in the possibility of 2 V!Coinshot, but not 2 V!Seeker. Unless it's a world where the elims have a lot of Smoking power, it feels very unlikely it would be designed in a manner where if the village is careful, the 2 V!Seekers can solve the game fully mechanically
Melon Dingo Posted January 12 Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Flam claimed to be a Village Kandra who ate Kang I thought they claimed and then said they lied? Did they lie about the lie or are we assuming based on other claims?
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Just now, Melon Dingo said: I thought they claimed and then said they lied? Did they lie about the lie or are we assuming based on other claims? They didn't say they lied, they stuck with it.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 12 Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I'm willing to catch you up on what you need - same with Weasel because I kinda am a bit at a loss given the claims flying around. I would say don't roll a die, if you are RNGing, cointoss between Meerkat and Ocho because those are the two main candidates and unless someone makes a weird claim, that's where the decisions will go subsequently. Flam claimed to be a Village Kandra who ate Kanga. I can't confirm it, all I can confirm is that someone beat me to eating Kanga. Flam's N2 scan was Toucan, a Village Coinshot. Toucan has not been online to confirm it but Ocho claims Toucan PMed them to claim Coinshot to them, so we do have two players corroborating the claim, and it fits Toucan's behaviour. It doesn't line up with kills, so either Toucan took a shot at Ele and just assumed they both hit the same target (in this world, Ocho is Spiked and put in the kill so could not shoot due to actions economy and lied and claimed the Coinshot kill), or Toucan has been holstering the kill all along (IIRC Toucan did not claim the N1 Axl shot.) Edited to add: Fundamentally Weasel thinks the vote should be on Ocho, and Beagle thinks it should be on Meerkat. I can't help you make it two people because I can't decide myself, having been very confused by all the claims. EDITED TO ADD 2: YO TOUCAN WHO YOU SHOOT N1/N2 DID YOU CLAIM TO OCHO OCHO SAYS YOU DID HELP US TOUCAN UR OUR ONLY HOPE @Sunburst Toucan Yes! I claimed to Octo; they're telling the truth. I was originally suspicious of them because of their coinshot claim; I wasn't sure if that was possible given the distro. I then claimed to them because I had no idea what else to do. I targetted Axo N1 (which was a bad idea, along with everything else I did in relation to them) and submitted no kill on Night 2 (which is why I was pushing the two-coinshots-one-no-kill theory earlier today). I am indeed a loyalist coinshot; Flamingo is right about that. I will not be online again until rollover; if I get voted out, thank you for the game, everyone. It's been fun, even if I've made a load of stupid errors. On the plus side, my death will probably be bad for the elims - not because I am one, but because I've been doing such a great job at drawing suspicion onto myself instead. tl;dr I'm a coinshot; I'm probably getting exed; and thanks, everyone (Also, I'm still curious as to how Dragonfly apparently knows who I am)
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Melon Dingo said: I thought they claimed and then said they lied? Did they lie about the lie or are we assuming based on other claims? They lied about knowing who the person is behind the Sunburst Toucan account to serve as a cover that they had an actual green check on them
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Just now, Oxblood Beagle said: They lied about knowing who the person is behind the Sunburst Toucan account to serve as a cover that they had an actual green check on them oh, thanks!
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Also, partially why I lean Meerkat more over Ocho is that I can believe in the possibility of 2 V!Coinshot, but not 2 V!Seeker. Unless it's a world where the elims have a lot of Smoking power, it feels very unlikely it would be designed in a manner where if the village is careful, the 2 V!Seekers can solve the game fully mechanically Elims almost guaranteed to need a Lurcher in this landscape as well, but it might not be in the four who claimed. Who do we not have claims for atm? (Yes, I know, people can be lying too.) I think it's just <Lion, Dragonfly>, with potential fakeclaims in <Meerkat, Rhino>? Because if Dingo is telling the truth, then someone had to have Smoked Croc N1. 6 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: I thought they claimed and then said they lied? Did they lie about the lie or are we assuming based on other claims? 4 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: TL;DR I lied about knowing Toucan (trying to cover up seeker) decided it was too sus and wasn't working well, claimed Seeker, Toucan is Loyalist CS, I think Octo is elim. Edited to add: 4 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said: tl;dr I'm a coinshot; I'm probably getting exed; and thanks, everyone Bro you aren't remotely dying, at this point the only people dying are gonna be Ocho or Meerkat depending on who everyone settles on. Would advise you vote on one of them as Zebra was scanned Village by Meerkat and Dingo and even if Meerkat is lying, we kinda think convergence between Meerkat and Dingo suggests Zebra is probably just Village. Edited to add 2: 3 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I think it's just <Lion, Dragonfly>, with potential fakeclaims in <Meerkat, Rhino>? Because if Dingo is telling the truth, then someone had to have Smoked Croc N1. SORRY I'M TIRED I MEAN LION CHAM SORRY DF ILU CARRY ON Edited January 12 by Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Elims almost guaranteed to need a Lurcher in this landscape as well, but it might not be in the four who claimed. Yeah, agree with this, so basically if Dingo is telling the truth about his Seeker claim, it means the last two roles in a 5 elim team is Lurcher and Smoker, which does make sense given the other village roles. And yeah, it's quite possible for the elims to see that there's already 2 Lurcher claims (and 1 joke claim, which I didn't expect people took seriously) before today, and then go with a different role claim since people might be honing in on the Lurcher claims
Melon Dingo Posted January 12 Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: They lied about knowing who the person is behind the Sunburst Toucan account to serve as a cover that they had an actual green check on them Oh thank you I was about to quote the things that confused me but ok Also thanks Heron was about to quote that myself WHAT? ok so confirmed second CS claim im going to have a heart attack. 7 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I think it's just <Lion, Dragonfly>, with potential fakeclaims in <Meerkat, Rhino>? Because if Dingo is telling the truth, then someone had to have Smoked Croc N1. Wait, i dont think DF can be evil. I had a very nice PM with them and I want to PM them again! I wanted to RP but that doesnt seem to be happening:sob: @Oxblood Beagle who are you voting on?
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Just now, Melon Dingo said: Oh thank you I was about to quote the things that confused me but ok Also thanks Heron was about to quote that myself WHAT? ok so confirmed second CS claim im going to have a heart attack. Wait, i dont think DF can be evil. I had a very nice PM with them and I want to PM them again! I wanted to RP but that doesnt seem to be happening:sob: @Oxblood Beagle who are you voting on? I'm currently voting Meerkat and most likely not changing unless chaos erupts again or something haha
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Just now, Melon Dingo said: Wait, i dont think DF can be evil. I had a very nice PM with them and I want to PM them again! I had one hour of sleep man I meant Cham not DF we have the Lurcher claim from DF it's fine. I'm trying to look for the theoretical space the Elims can be if we're assuming they have one Lurcher and one Smoker. 1 minute ago, Melon Dingo said: WHAT? ok so confirmed second CS claim im going to have a heart attack. Yes that's kind of the problem. Two ostensibly v!CS and apparently two starting v!Seeker claims. 2 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: And yeah, it's quite possible for the elims to see that there's already 2 Lurcher claims (and 1 joke claim, which I didn't expect people took seriously) before today, and then go with a different role claim since people might be honing in on the Lurcher claims The weak link there is theoretically in the unknowns or the Mistborn claims. Technically my kandra claim too, or one of the Seekers. Maybe Lurchers, but thinking aloud: I think cross-validation on Zebra means remove Zebra from contention, we haven't had a validation on Weasel but Weasel had a good D1, DF is solid, and Axl was protected N1 and claimed the protect on me against Zebra and IDK if E!Axl runs that play. Edited to add: I frickin' hate these kind of role puzzles man It feels like playing extra spicy minesweeper.
Melon Dingo Posted January 12 Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I had one hour of sleep man I meant Cham not DF we have the Lurcher claim from DF it's fine. Im with you brother. Im on 3 hours last night and I think also the night before. Ok not fully with you. But ya know? 20 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: SORRY I'M TIRED I MEAN LION CHAM SORRY DF ILU CARRY ON Oh phew ok. Although I do really like both Lion and Cham RP. 6 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: I'm currently voting Meerkat and most likely not changing unless chaos erupts again or something haha Are you on at rollover? Meerkat
Mint Heron Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Melon Dingo said: Im with you brother. Im on 3 hours last night and I think also the night before. Yeah similar vicinity bruv. Did not expect work to heat up over the last few days.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: Are you on at rollover? Meerkat Yup, going to be on around rollover Edited January 12 by Oxblood Beagle
Recommended Posts