Theory on the Survivor's Plan (Ghostbloods + Beyond)

[Cade Strauss]

Kelsier is a schemer. A planner. Everything we’ve seen him do is him putting one foot in front of another in the direction of one goal:

Discord.

Now, this isn’t surprising. We know Kelsier wants power. We know he wants control and secrets and worshipping. However, his methods of achieving said Vesselship is apparent if you look at everything he’s been doing for the last 300+ years. 

1st Piece of Evidence: Pre-Death Years

Kelsier’s exploits pre-death all point towards the character of Discord. He does not know Shards, Vessels, and the like exist at this point, but his character arc is still geared towards Discord. Before forming the team, Kelsier roamed around the countryside, murdering nobles like Tresting and causing chaos that forced skaa to unite and flee to the rebellion. His plan with the team was to start a house war, causing chaos within Luthadel so it burns itself from the inside. Even his methods of bolstering the courage of Demoux and the skaa in the caves involved tipping the scales so the unexpected would happen. Everything he did before the Lord Ruler killed him caused chaos and calamity to further his goal.

2nd Piece of Evidence: Cognitive Years

This is where Kelsier’s plan begins to unfold. He realizes shards exist. He wants power. However, he has no clue that they can be combined, so he satisfies himself with claiming Preservation. He isn’t actively motivated towards Discord, as he doesn’t know it’s possible, but his character still creates chaos. He has the unique characteristics of creating so much chaos that it he can survive, making him a candidate for both Discord and Preservation. Once he leaves the Well of Ascencion, he travels to the Iri’s fortress, taking the Purified Dor in a chaotic encounter and uses it to try to help Preservation. Then he gets his goal. He gets Preservation. This is the one point in time where he doesn’t actively Pursue chaos. He gives it up. He gives it to Vin. Perhaps he wasn’t satisfied with its limitations and weakness, perhaps it was out of a good heart. I think it was a bit of both. 

3rd Piece of Evidence: Post-Harmony Years

Kelsier’s plan kicks into a higher gear than ever before. Harmony is possible? He’s cognitive. He knows his friends. He knows Sazed. Harmony is not final. I’m going to theorize here and provide my idea of what I think Kelsier’s plan is to take Discord. It’s simple: Create Chaos.

How does one create enough worldwide chaos that the Intent of the godlike being who presides over it becomes so opposed to the literal events occurring in the world that the Shard’s power flips to align with the world? In addition, the power has to reject the current Vessel in favor of yourself? Not easy. If I were Kelsier, I’d start making weapons. Powerful weapons. Weapons that can shake the world. Weapons like…People. Kelsier has planted seeds in the far corners of the world that have begun to sprout. I think we’ve only seen up to the beginning of their growth by the end of The Lost Metal, but they will flourish soon, especially in Ghostbloods. 

1. His first seed is a people. The Malwish were forgotten. Left for dead by Harmony when the world was reshaped, they stood no chance against the bitter cold that came upon them. Until the Sovereign arrived. Kelsier came in and gave them strange and powerful tools. He gave them weapons that outmatched the abilities of the Northern Scadrians, who grew powerful under Harmony’s coddling hand. The Malwish grew strong under Kelsier. However, two powerful nations doesn’t necessarily mean conflict. Therefore, Kelsier needed a second seed. A far more volatile one…
2. The Bands of Mourning. Their creation doesn’t make total sense. Why would an overpowered hemalurgic mastermind spend centuries plugging power into an artifact that anyone could use? Why would Kelsier store his power in a device that is not keyed to his Identity? Because he doesn’t want to be the one to use it. He wanted Wax (or someone else) to take them. He wanted them to be stolen (or recovered, depending on your view of British colonization) by the Northern Scadrians so that instant conflict would arise. And once the two countries begin to unite around them? They become mysteriously drained. How could that happen?
3. The third seed is a person. Someone Kelsier has actually been training and controlling since day one. A man named Spook. A man who went from the least of the thieving crew to the last living Mistborn on the planet. He spent an undisclosed amount of time experimenting with Kelsier. He’s been in hiding for over 200 years (at least that’s what I believe. If he lived to 100, why not longer?) When Spook arrives in Ghostbloods as I believe he will, he may be of some use. But I think Spook is a time bomb. He will upset things. He will cause chaos. He will be the last straw that breaks Scadrial into a thousands pieces during the climax of the Cold War. 

Kelsier is playing a dangerous game. He is trying to create the perfect Cold War. He is trying to cause dissent, hate, anger, and chaos, but equally. He’s equipping both sides for a high stakes game that he wants neither side to win…or lose. Kelsier doesn’t want the Malwish to win. He doesn’t care who wins. He just wants to build to as much tensions as possible. As the world is crumbling and Sazed, the peaceful man, crumbles with it, he will be there, the perfect candidate for Discord. I don’t think this plan will work out perfectly. There have already been hitches. Autonomy’s influence in The Lost Metal was  unfortunate for his plan. It’s hard to have a war when a bunch of aliens use a nuclear bomb to wipe out one side. I don’t know if his plan will succeed. However, I think it is in motion and at the least will come very close to success. Nothing in Isles of Emberdark confirm the identity of the “Scadrian Shard.” Only that the Vessel is worshipped. And what, if anything, does Kelsier love?

Thoughts, discussion, and ideas are welcome.

Edited August 7, 2025 by Cade Strauss