Macen
-
Posts
475 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by Macen
-
10 minutes and we need 1 vote switched.
-
We need one vote switcfhed from Leift to Hero. please
-
I changed it in my edit above.
-
I can't send you a PM. I used both of my charges scanning Renegade and Hero. Even if I DID have a ch arge, you wouldn't get it until the end of the night. *EDIT* End of the day.
-
It's ok Renegade. It looks like one of our two radiants is going to die still
-
Vote Hero please. Renegade would not have risked himself with that kill if he was a Radiant.
-
Twei, since you keep pointing out I must have other evidence and I keep telling you to look back at my earlier posts. Maybe you should look at who I voted for. I'm almost 100% sure Hero and Renegade put it together already and are going to kill me if you guys don't. I"m our Lightweaver. I have scanned both Renegade and Hero. Both are Diagramists. There you go. You could have just pieced together the only other reason I would have been pushing so hard and maybe thought about voting for Renegade? But no. everyone decided to overlook everything I've said and the only person I've voted for. So now we are going to lose TWO radiants because the Diagramists know who two are. At least they will lose two of theirs as well. If you would have just waited until tomorrow to push this I was going to make you my squire. But, now they will kill me before I can. *EDIT* Also, I would like to change my vote to Hero, since I'm pretty sure they wouldn't risk their Radiant on this ploy. That increases the chance that Hero is one of their radiants, not Renegade.
-
I wasn't arguing. A cycle is 1 day and night. The pm ended the night Bort died.
-
After only 1 cycle it's true.... *edit* Also, go back and reread my posts from the beginning of the cycle please.
-
First off. What information gain would there be? The PM's last ONE CYCLE. The information gain was gone. Also, he hadn't used his squire yet and if they kill him on the same night he uses it, he doesn't get it off. Also, please tell me how he could trust anyone on day one. Trusting someone the first cycle in this game is the easiest way to get yourself killed. What do you think the reason we didn't lynch anyone the first two days was? I would argue if you think you can trust someone you probably SHOULDN'T. Because it probably means they are doing their job well. I would 100% say I'm being lynched currently based on the fact that I have posted twice as much as anyone else. So, when you think "I need to lynch someone! Who should I pick!?" you think of me. Take the whole picture of what I said, not one little comment here or there. I learned my lesson about trying to contribute too much. *EDIT* Also, I have yet to post "LYNCH SOMEONE" I've been presenting the numbers and telling you all that one of the 4 is PROBABLY a Diagramist. If i was trying to lynch someone I would be switching my vote at every opportunity.
-
Your math is right on with what I did. I took the lowest possible numbers (5 elminiators) so no one could say I was trying to skew the results. More realistic would be that it's 6 or 7, and I would take 1 person out of each subsequent roll of the dice. Let's pretend it's 6: 19/25 = .76 18/24 = .75 17/23 = .7391 16/22 = .7272 .76*.75*.7391*.7272 = .3064 = 30.64% = 69.26% chance of one being bad. If we want to go as high as 7 Diagramists: 17/24 = .7083 16/23 = .6956 15/22 = .6818 .72*.7083*.6956*.6818 = .2419 = 24.19% = 75.81% chance of one being bad.These numbers are based on 27 people minus one for Bort, becuase he couldn't communicate with himself. And minus one for yourself (since you know you're good and he didn't communicate with you). If someone wants to do the odds including yourself (26), be my guest. That being said, between a 59.04% and 75.81% chance of one of them being bad. Combine that with the fact that he died quickly afterwards (trying to kill him before he got a squire off?) I think the probability is much higher. The odds are above 50% no matter how you break it down, do I really need to argue more than that? *EDIT* To touch on your last paragraph, got ahead of myself -sorry. In a situation like this you don't take a lot of random samples. You take the laws of probability. If you roll a 5 sided dice 4 times (which is essentially what happened) you have a 59.04% chance of getting a 5 at least once. But EVEN if we take all the math out of it... do you really think they just happened to kill the guy who communicated with 4 people right after he communicated with 4 people? Really? */EDIT* *EDIT2* I would like to throw a Caviat in backing up Araris in the fact that there is a lot more that goes into making this equation perfect. You can go to a lot of math sites and get equations that get it a lot finer than this. That being said, this is a pretty commonly accept short hand for these probabilities. It's not perfect, but it's close enough.
-
Again, I think you need to go re-read how the illumination ability works. It's only for that night.
-
The reason they would kill him is because PM's only last for 1 night, they use up a charge, and he hadn't made his Squire yet. Also, why did you contradict yourself? First you say they wouldn't want to kill the KR so they could get free info (who is saying he would have opened a PM up with that Diagramist again?). Then you say they would want to stop communication between their enemies. If I was a Diagramist and the person who was communicated with out of my faction wasn't one of our Radiants, I would 100% kill Bort. That leaves a 50/50 chance they will be suspicious of the group (obviously people are saying that we shouldn't be) and if people ARE suspicious of the group, there is only a 25% that our Diagramist is going to the one who gets lynched first. They kill 1 of our Illusionists, and they possibly kill him before he can get a squire out. All I've been doing is breaking down game rules and presenting numbers to back up my theory. I still THINK we should lynch one of the 4. In my opinion there is at least a 25% chance we get a Diagramist (there is about a 20% chance he messaged 2 Diagramist; this could made it a 50% chance hit a Diagramist). If we don't get a Diagramist then there is a 35% chance they are one of our Radiants. All of that being said, I'm going to stop breaking this stuff down for everyone because it appears it's just making me seem suspicious. You can do it yourself or use your gut instinct. *EDIT* Added Votes: Macen (2) : Twei, Arasis, Paranoid King Ren (1) : Macen Paranoid (3) : Hero, Maill, Twei, Araris, Leiftinspace, Leift (4) : Emerald, Orlok. Alvron, Clanky Phatt (1): Ren, Eramit
-
Macen (0) : Twei Ren (1) : Macen Paranoid (3) : Hero, Maill, Twei, Araris, Leiftinspace, Leift (4) : Emerald, Orlok. Alvron, Clanky Phatt (1): Ren, Eramit *EDIT* I Meant to edit this into my last post, and forgot to do that - sorry for the double post. *EDIT2* FIxed what Leift said.
-
I am pretty sure you are all about to lynch a Refugee. I just hope it's not one of our Radiants. I do personally think that one of the 4 is a Diagramist. If there are only 5 diagramists, that means bort had a ~20% chance of getting a Diagramist with each person he contacted. There is about a 60% chance that a diagramist was contacted (This is a lowball chance). Combining that with the fact that he died the next night, I find it VERY unlikely that one of the four isn't a diagramist. All odds point to a diagramist being part of the group. I can't put numbers on that, but I would guess it's very high. For all of you stating that the experienced players would not kill him the same night - you aren't taking into account Squiring. If I was a diagramist I would want to kill a Radiant before he could get his squire off, that takes away one more Refugee with an ability. Rewards outweigh the risk for them. Based on this: Based on those numbers I'm guessing we are close to 10 Radiants. If 1/5 of our players are Diagramists that means they have 2, we have 8. If there are only 10 - I'm guessing 1 of each role (possible 2 of certain roles and 0 of others?) Back to what I was saying before. I feel that (at least) 1 of the 4 in that group was a Diagramist. After doing this post I'm now pretty convinced that they are not one of their radiants (that risk would not have outweighed the reward). So you guys need to decide if it's worth the risk to lynch one of them consider the diagramist in the group (if there is one) is probably not a radiant. But, the refugees in the group have a 7/20 (-1 for Bort, 2 for the diagramist, based on 10 total) chance of being a radiant [35%]... P.S. I did most of the math on the fly here, if you see something wrong, please point it out - also... this completely changed the way I feel about the votes we are doing. I do know that the flow of this post goes from me thinking we should lynch one of the 4, to being more hesitant. I could have re-written it, but I want you guys to be able to see the logic I followed. Please do not take my math / logic as fact. Take it with a grain of salt and do the numbers yourself.
-
By Kevin Wilson, eh? Wilson, any relation?
-
Just an update on the votes: Macen (1): twelthrootoftwo Renegade (1): Macen Paranoid King (2): Herowannabe, Maillew73 Leiftinspace (1): Emerald101 Phattemer (1): Renegade
-
My reasons were already more or less brought up by Ren. I had been targeted for making points about things that went against the Diagramists (with the exception of me missing the Use of Gravitation with the Diagramist kill ability). I still think it's odd that he took everything I had said as points to help our Radiants and singled out the one oversight I had, but he stated that he was more or less doing it due to lack of information on any other front. I just had a feeling I was going to die and wanted to make sure the person I thought was the most suspicious was out there. Him being part of the Bort PM ring does back up my suspicions though. Due to this I am going to vote Renegade. I do think Bort went a little wrong on reaching out to more than 2 people though. with each additional person you reach out to you are increasing the chance of speaking to a Diagramist, letting them know you're a radiant. I don't think it was a bad idea reaching out, but with 4 possible options now we only have a 25% chance of figuring out who the diagramist was (hoping there was only 1). On a side note, I am glad that they got our Truthwatcher and not our Lightweaver. Losing a protection is bad, but losing the scan would have been worse. You will be missed my bearded friend.
-
I get where you're going with this thought emerald and I back it up - except for the fact that Peng tied the vote to prevent himself from dying. If anyone else had done it I would be curious as to why They had tied it away from Peng being lynched. You can make the argument that he should have fallen on his dagger for the team though.
-
I suppose I can accept your reasoning. I might just be biased in the fact that you voted for me for because I didn't realize how much of an impact gravitation would have (especially for the Diagramists). I can get that looking fishy though especially considering how short on information we are at the moment.
-
I am also suspicious of Renegade. I have my reasons, but I don't have enough evidence at the moment. I'm just pretty sure I'm going to die tonight. *EDIT* Added blue.
-
This was my bad overlooking it. smoker didn't really do that though... It was more of a scan preventer (unless it's been modified since the early games).
-
I'm going to back up hero here. Blindly using charges that have a 23% (assuming there are 6) chance of hitting a diagramist and probably a 60% chance of hitting a non radiant is worse than dying and not using them at all. The chance of dying (if we just used a RNG) is 3.8%. As far as what we should do, I've been analyzing the skills and their uses for us and it appears to me that there is no "safe" way for any of the radians to have communicated with anyone until night 2. What I mean by safe is: Assuming whoever has transformation scanned someone and got a refugee. Then tonight they can squire them (creating a private chat). All of our radians who don't have transformation are stuck In a rough spot until someone scans them or communicates with them via illumination. As far as Borts plan goes we have issues with the regular diagramist coming forward and getting free powers. Also, this gives them one of our radiants... I see more use in blind shooting than a group effort. If we had someone who knew who each radiant made a squire, that would be a different story... One radiant for 1 diagramist would make us win... (I think?) This game is very unique in the fact that as refugees we are stuck until night 2/3 unless our radiants take big risks. Let me know if you see any holes in my thought pattern here. I'm on my phone only until late tonight.
-
No specific reason. Other than gut feeling and experience from previous games for the numbers.As far as skills, I just think those are the 4 powers I am very confident are in the game. I think some of the other roles could have possibly been left out. *EDIT2* I changed the wording from certain to very confident because I realized how that could be misinterpreted. :/ Let me know if you have any other questions! P.S. I'm out of town for the weekend, so I'm only on my phone. *EDIT* fixed color.
-
This has been a rather uneventful first cycle. Hopefully our Radiants have been doing some work. *EDIT* Adding in some thoughts. I've had some time to think about the Squiring and how our Radiants should squire. The Diagramist Radiant(s) is probably going to squire tonight, but they will get no advantage out of it other than if we happen to kill their radiant, they will have the squire already created. Aonar, I'm assuming a squire does not lose their abilities when the Radiant who made them die. Is this correct? There are two scenarios our Radiants are sitting in now. They have a 74% chance of blind hitting a good guy (assuming that 7/20 are diagramists, may be higher if it's only 5 or 6) and you still have a chance that they are already a Radiants, which is a wasted try (but, from what I gather you don't lose your radiant charge?). The second option is waiting, and have the chance of getting off'd before you can use your Squire. Ultimately only two Radiant types have the ability to verify who they squire before they squire them. So. it's up to you guys if you want to shoot blind, or wait until you have more information (if you're a Lightweaver or Elsecaller I strongly recommend scanning someone tonight and squiring them tomorrow night). Slow Friday afternoon at work.
