Melon Dingo

Same. Both for the until rollover part and the not the kill part xD Also I'm going to be very busy both days in D3 so I'll be as active as I can but it'll likely just be some short thoughts/reactions here and there.

Double post since it's been a long time Reads After going through all of that, I'm ok with the CS targeting Rhino, Zebra, Elephant, or Axolotl However since I think the votes are currently just Rhino (2): Dragonfly, Heron I'll vote Sapphire Elephant Rhino (2): Dragonfly, Heron Elephant (1): Dingo @Scarlet Octopus if you see this edit: whoops not a double post anymore xD

I dont have anything to say about Weasels assumptions but I just generally want to say in these games I think its better to assume experience than to assume inexperience. Where I may differ from Weasel is I dont think experience = playing optimally or even well. (Look at me i almost never play well (though I have had some good games in the past) xD). Also want to throw out there that there are many people, even staples of the community, who just dont find optimal play as fun as suboptimal play. And then people differ on what optimal play is... and when talking about or making AI decisions based on this kind of meta stuff its important to remember all of this. To be clear I am not prescribing any conclusions or saying that any votes or analysis this game was bad/wrong just we need to think about this stuff. Especially in AN games where players may also be trying to mask who they are so its harder to know if a certain kind of play is AI for them or not. Edit: Even if I dont always do it, I know i should

Because im color blind? Lol Hmm someone who GMs games perhaps

Ok so im colorblind, but i think thats purple? I think Drsgonfly is saying let's use a non-blue color as thats against SE rules. Ninjad Edit: Ill be honest though I cant meaningfully tell the difference between that color and blue Dragonfly do you need us to post a player list? Maybe you cant echo the writeup? Violet Axolotl: Fletcher (Past Lives) Taupe Gecko: H.E.A.R.T.H. (Past Lives) Sunburst Toucan: Ophelia Desci (Forgetful) Scarlet Octopus: Chiji Kaido (Silverist) Sapphire Elephant: Klin (Merchant) Salmon Meerkat: Dugh Thomas (Arrogant) Sage Kangaroo: Saboteur kandra meal Saffron Iguana: Saboteur Kandra Quartz Zebra: Finch (Tinkerer) Plum Rhinoceros: Art (Stowaway) Pearl Chameleon: Neugier (Past Lives) Oxblood Beagle: Levin (Past Lives) Opal Lion: Dusk (Sleepy Old Man) Onyx Flamingo: Frisk (Past Lives) Mint Heron: Zense (Ship's Musician) Melon Dingo: Stormseeker the Wise (Returned) Mauve Crocodile: Saboteur Rioter Magenta Albatross: Rane Cauthon (Gambler) Ivory Dragonfly: Echo (Echo) Indigo Weasel: Third of the Tide (Liar)

LOL ok wow. Has this happened in SE before? 3 elims to 0 villagers dead? Ok so, skimming last night I think I agree that makes Flamingo look good as well. I think thats the main thing that does for reads but ill have to go back and actually read it later. As for the shot, im more pro using it largely just because it'd be pretty funny if we can kill all the elims before anyone dies. Idk if that's possible as it depends a bit on luck but its more likely to happen if we use the coinshot lol As for the team we're in a 20 person game and we know they had rioter so id guess theres 1-2 elims left. 3 left for 6 total is possible but I dont think it likely in a game with an e!rioter.

Ok so about to go to bed and don't think I should break the tie at the moment. Between the trains led by Beagle and Ivory, both Iguana and Flamingo really went under the radar for me where I thought they had fewer posts than they did. That was more exaggerated with Flamingo. However, some of flamingo's posts reads as earnest to me and Iguana talked a lot about mechanics today. As it's going on 1am so that's the quality of thoughts we are going to get. Heron Iguana

First half of your post is 100% why I'm reading you as evil. You are showing yourself very charitably, which makes sense... But even like where you say Heron isn't sure how to read Kanga. Heron continues to express mixed opinions of Kanga. These posts are exactly why I think you're sus. You're saying these are you being negative about Kangaroo but... you just literally aren't. Associating Kangaroo with being helpful? Even if you say don't clear them you are still calling them helpful. Not sure about Kangaroo's opening but bolded is good is you saying you weren't sure before but now you're leaning more good than you were before. That is a positive statement. And great hedging. The funny thing is you're saying this about a post where Kangaroo is also hedging. I still need to finish my reads of your posts as, like I said, I lost my progress halfway through. But just looking at the first post you gave late in the cycle, you're asking Weasel who is already on Kangaroo if he'd be interested in a Kangaroo or Axolotl wagon... which seems to me like you're testing the waters on them moving to axolotl. Not to mention people keep bringing up that Octopus may have been fishing for a Coinshot claim but you're the person to actually encourage a coinshot to step forward and claim. Anyways, I do need to finish that read through and it looks like no one else is interested in this which means my vote is pointless here. I'll look for a place to move it before I go to sleep Edit: actually I think I need to take a step back. i've been doing this too long today and I I've already made up my mind Heron is evil and I don't think I'm open to reevaluating that rn. I'll take a break and look at other people and Heron again later

There were also 3 attacks. Also we shouldnt kill someone on D2 for purely distro reasons in a Tyrian game (or any game for that matter its not fun) Im sus on Octo, but so many people being so willing to vote on them is weird. Also Heron is more sus and I think Herons flip will tell us about Octopus. There has also been no counter wagon attempt at all which does make me think more likely village.

Guys I've been working on an analysis post for no joke 4.5 hours and I just lost it all minus this ALL BECAUSE I CONTROL Zed WHEN I ACIDENTALLY COPPIED A LINK TWICE In short I V!read Beagle, Dragonfly, and Gecko hard. I don't think we should look to exe them until lylo or late game if they are still alive and there is particularly weird things happening with them Octopus: Lean Elim I also elim read Heron. Since I lost it all I need a break and to come back and I'll redo my heron stuff But in short their analysis posts explicitly defend Kangaroo for reasons that don't make sense and v!read Zebra's while telling us not to listen to them when Zebra was sus on Croc which is a clever way to defend Croc without defending Croc. Lastly, the EOD D1 feels weird to me. Heron was asking people to explain and elaborate stuff in the last 10 minutes when people were talking about moving to Kangaroo. I think they were trying to slow down the thread to make it less likely that switch happened. I had a whole RP thing planned out to do for this post but I'm so frustrated with losing that work I don't feel up for RP. I was also ninjad a thousand gazzilion times so I just need to get this out Mint Heron Edit: While I'm elim reading both Heron and Octopus, both being elims would be a bit weird... not impossible but I would currently assume otherwise and I'm more sus on Heron

I... how else do you play as an elim? Lol Like not saying there aren't other ways to play... but idk when elim thats the only strategy I remember using. Maybe I need to look back on my old games but maybe that explains why Im often the last elim dead... xD No but seriously the alternative to playing like village is to play like evil right? And that just gets you exed? Maybe I'm misunderstanding. I always saw deepwolfing as a strategy that involves heavy distancing/bussing other the elims so that you look super good and carries you into late game... which is still playing evil as you are still playing with that extra knowledge

Whaaaat? Obviously we should all role claim all at once. 3 2 1 LURCHER! Woah we have 3 lurchers this game? Wait why did no one else join me? Oh I do think if there is a trusted player soothers/rioters might benefit from claiming in PMs but also since role != alignment thats more of a personal choice than necessarily a good/bad one. That being said, an elim team with 2 vote manip is super strong and if thats the case I'd guess theres 3-4 of them. So while vote manip is definitely not AI it could help with possible worlds. It varies. Depends on how Jo/TUM wanted to run it but it seems very reasonable that there be some in a 20 player game. With 10 roles for no one to be vanilla there would need to be an average of 2 of every role in the game which seems very challenging to balance to me. Not that it couldnt be done or wouldnt be attempted Ninjad by some people Edit: @Scarlet Octopus elims could have an coinshot or a MB that rolls coinshot. There really is nothing they *cant* have. if elims have 2 guarenteed kills/night, i would expect a lot of village protection via lurcher/thug/seeker to compensate.

Forum jokes are hard. I was both treating it as that and a real criticism at the same time Thanks for quoting i didnt see that. Just thinking about it a role madness game where all the elims are Kandra would be pretty cool though obviously thats not this game. Hopefully village got it cause thats a really powerful role. And with PMs open now (and hopefully one more time this game? might be able to form trust circles And Plum Rhino right? Or maybe they had one post i dont remember.

Omg this game is wild 3 kills on night 1 and 2 protects? Lurchers are probably better off not saying if the lack of deaths was them or not. And 2 elims dead by C2 is going to be really nice... for when I get a chance to do analysis lol Im pretty busy today but @Mint Heronim not offended im struggling a bit this game just giving you a bad time @Onyx Flamingoi know the meta has changed over time but I definitely prescribe to the "defending yourself is more of an elim trait" philosophyl @Taupe Geckoyour votes are wrong? Ill go back and check. I Dingo (meant to say appologize but my phone wants me to say "I Dingo"lol. ) I went through a lot of posts. Also "gimmick" referred to people voting on Dragonfly for the way they were posting

Hmm interesting. Sorry for double post on mobile (maybe itll auto merge like PMs?) i mean personally i dont dare to make predictions about AG distributions... or well, my prediction is each year its going to get more and more kayana until EITHER we have an all vanilla game or an all coinshot game and people will flip out xD Anyways, I definitely agree someone is probably lying especially with how powerful lurchers are this game... and i dont know if its smart to say this or not... but I definitely think its at least a good idea for Thugs to claim Lurcher, possibly some other roles as well. For thugs at least, when the attack doesnt go through elims almost certainly wont attack again if thats the claim. As they may assume the lurcher is just going to keep self protecting. Lastly I think we'll learn more about the distribution after tonight. We dont know if there are any coinshots yet and an elim coinshot raises the likelihood of lurchers/thugs imo as well. Edit: Elephant coming to the rescue! Thanks for stopping the double post! Lol Edit again: I forgot to add lurcher is also a very convenient lie to give to just get off the block. Im not sus atm of Dragonfly who this more applies to. But its worth mentioning as well

I feel disproportionately called out here I will say, I basically only looked for vote posts and then looked for reasoning in the post. Sadly, this thread seems allergic to organizing their thoughts in ways easy to analyze Gotta say, your TLDR needs a TLDR i cant make it through ok i did make it through im just playing into your cant read acusations. (Wait, I just realized theres a bunch of posts above Heron's I didnt realize existed... really not beating the cant read accusation xD) I mean, my last post was right before the 11 minute warning so I wouldnt really consider it lurking but dont worry elim!me would probably say it too The point is to be *too defensive*? -------- again just for a little RP. Stormseeker, this time with no scarf, went down to the engine room. There was usually a store of investiture there he could use. So far, no one had caught him or reported it missing. He went down there and found the usual stash and grabbed another 50 BEU. Immediately an alarm went off. Someone this time had clearly noticed someone was doing this. He fled back towards the bridge, not looking back.

Ok so I was initially planning on doing this plus some RP and then a second post tonight with some analysis looking at what everyone said about Kangaroo D1... but I've been doing this for I think 3 hours now so I'm going to not do that lol. Probably part of this was my own fault for working on setting up a sheet I eventually discarded for being unweildy. Might try again tomorrow Anyways... Post count with retractions and reasonings: Order in which votes happened. I think I got all of them but I'm not double checking. There is occasionally some notes about how the vote affected the Dragonfly/Axolotl/Kangroo trains. Reasonings also there though sometimes slightly different language. All in all based on what I'm seeing here I'm most suspicious right now of Mauve Crocodile and Mint Heron. ----------------------------- ok short rp (ok not really rp but /shurg) Stormseeker the Wise looked around, everyone was whispering about how Isabel turned out to be a saboteur. He always knew she was trouble. Too bad no one listened to him back when he made his analysis post where he said she... well... he definitely said she was evil yup. Anyone who said otherwise was lying of course. This does explain her selfishness though. He sensed investiture and she wouldn't give him any when he asked (off camera). He then realized wait, I've been talking like a Scadrian this whole time! Octopus this, Mouse that. The horror! He needed to get back to his roots as a Nalthian and start calling people by their colors instead.

Ok I lied I couldnt sleep this close to rollover lol. That was a pretty insane play xD Basically soft clears Beagel, Drsgonfly, ans Weasel. Ok *now* I sleep bye ya'll

Im pretty happy with the Axolotl exe especially with the hard push it seems Heron and Gecko are doing to lift it. We'll see where we are after the flip Im going back to bed Ninjad If we are scared of a tie when the vote is 6 to 3, we are saying we think there might be a rioter not on either train AND a soother attempt to save Axolotl or a hammer with some vote manip. If that happened it'd be super obvious and most like would tell us a lot.

Ok wow idk how i missed that i feel dumb now. Anyways yeah pretty clear claim.

Really groggy rn so hopefully this makes sense (idk why im awake rn) Wait I'm confused about where the lurcher claim Is coming from. I read the post and it said "Echo Metal" Not iron.

Ok got a bit of extra time tonight so going to see how far I get continuing my thoughts on players from this post Hmm I should start documenting my notes in sheets like I used to... that'd be helpful. Especially with keeping track of names xD https://www.17thshard.com/forums/topic/201696-ag12an16-day-one-the-regards-of-the-raiders-of-ruin/page/4/#findComment-2019586 Violet Axolotl (5): Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile, Ivory Dragonfly Sapphire Elephant (2): Sunburst Toucan, Oxblood Beagle Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (2): Salmon Meerkat, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (4): Violet Axolotl, Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo Scarlet Octopus (1): Saffron Iguana on mobile so I cant change the formatting sorry. Also ive stayed up way too late. I'll finish this later. -------- (just to have some RP) After Stormseeker finished signing the paperwork and now happily has his 1 needed Breath for this week, he realized... wait... Scraf must also be hungry! After all, the more breaths he was "fed" the stronger and more capable he became. So Stormseeker offered that breath to Scraf. Well luckily he saw someone ahead who seemed to have a glow of investiture. Let's see if they could help! Hello good sir! Good to see you again! Stormseeker said to this mystery person with their back turned. "You wouldnt happen to have a Breath I could borrow wou-" He cut off as he all of a sudden needed to sneeze. Ah ah AHCHHOOO he sneezed right over @Saffron Iguana fur ejecting in all directions... which was weird as he is... or at least was human. Oh uhh my bad! Stormseeker says and quickly moves to speedwalk away (thats what you get for complaining about my dog hairs )

Stormseeker the Responsible brightened. "Ah yes that would be perfect!" He said as he whipped out a scroll and pen and wrote a contract for the terms. As he was about to sign, he looked at Klin, "wait a minute. I currently have an outstanding debt Im paying off for my previous spaceship..." Stormseeker paused for a second and frowned, "Luckily I crashed it, as otherwise I wouldnt be here... but that does mean I currently am paying off an outstanding debt of about 350 million boxings... That won't be a problem will it?" I interpreted this as Dragonfly saying they wanted to vote on you but its pointless as no one else has voted on you

Stormseeker the Wise looks down at the small orb. "I've never seen breath that looks quite like this before. It seems to more closely resemble other world magics" he thinks "Wow this must truly be Adonalsium if he is able to store breath in an invested sphere, most impressive". As he reaches out and grabs his salvation, he mutters the words, "your breath to mine" and... nothing happens. Looking closer, he realizes the gem is filled just with Stormlight. So much in fact that he thought there's no way the entire glow was coming just from inside the gemstone. "Colors!" Stormseeker shouts, "I need breath, Adonalsium. How hard can that be?" As he said this he threw the gem down to the table where it shattered and the misty light from inside started slowly spreading out across the room around everyone's knees. "Oh thank goodness, someone understands" Stormseeker the Wise responded. Looking in his vest for 5 boxings... Wait a minute... looking in his coin pocket he notices a hole where the coins should be. "My coins disappeared! Is there something else I can give you? perhaps... the honor of being my first follower on this ship?"

"Umm hmm... well good sir it seems I have made a mistake with pointing my finger at you" Stormseeker says, his vest turning a slightly lighter shade. "Why of all colors would security let that object onto this ship" he continues under his breath and turns slowly in the opposite direction to look directly at Adonalsium Storming Reborn "Ah Mr Adonalsium Reborn. My apologies" Stormseeker says, trying to regain his composure, "as much as I would love to get off this table my efforts here are unfortunately quite necessary. However, and I dont know if you've heard, but short of myself no one on this ship, except me of course, actually believes you are Adonalsium! Can you believe that? But I have a plan!" Stormseeker looks around conspiritorily and leans in "you could prove you are Adonalsium to everyone in here if you just do one thing. Send me over a Breath or 2 or 40 thousand and everyone will know! What do you say?" Stormseeker snapped out of trying to convince Adonalsium. "Wait! I didnt hear! Only 5 boxings? Do you have more? How did I miss it? NOOOOOO" ------------- As much as I love in character analysis, I lost progress on this post twice already and it takes so much energy to do so might try again later or might just stick to separate RP and analysis stuff Im not done but im getting pretty tired and have been doing this for a while now. Will continue tomorrow. Right now im most suspicious of Axolotl Violet Axolotl