Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[Illwei]

Okay, I'm going to give you about 30 seconds to go back and check that those are the right numbers that you mean.

[Condensation she/her]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Okay, I'm going to give you about 30 seconds to go back and check that those are the right numbers that you mean.

Shoot. Was I wrong? Light green, blue, and red! H2, H4, and H5.

Whoops, no light green. Never mind on the H2, but otherwise I was right.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Condensation

[Illwei]

Just now, Condensation said:

Shoot. Was I wrong? Light green, blue, and red! H2, H4, and H5.

And those are the people who have been active after Devotary's death? 

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

And those are the people who have been active after Devotary's death? 

Just edited. My bad, didn't see that.

[dannnex male]

So do we think that Aman used his kill already? That might be relevant somehow to the mystery of why the Elims killed him and not someone else. 

[Coffeecat she/her]

Well...

 

8 people dead and only one of them is elim

 

this is not good

 

what can i contribute?

not much, i am very busy with school

[+Whysper she/her]

12 hours ago, Straw said:

Amanuensis has died! He was a Loyal Mistborn.

11 hours ago, Illwei said:

So what was the point of Killing Aman? It was basically accepted that he was village, and he had assumedly already used his kill. He wasn't terribly active either.

Yes, exactly. The Aman kill is very odd assuming that he was the one who killed Turtle, which is highly likely. I'm starting to think Elk might have been right when he theorized after the Gears kill that we might be dealing with mostly new Elims. Other Elims who aren't quite as new might not be involved and paying attention as much. I think Ashbringer isn't new, but then he was lynched D4 and didn't have part in the decision for the N4 NK. So the remaining Elims might be inexperienced since the Aman kill was probably one of the worst choices. He had already used his one kill (again assumed, but highly likely). He wasn't universally read as Villager, so keeping him in the PoE would have been ideal. He was posting less and would get suspicion for that.

7 hours ago, Danex said:

So do we think that Aman used his kill already? That might be relevant somehow to the mystery of why the Elims killed him and not someone else.

We don't know for certain since he never claimed the kill, but it's highly likely. There were 2 kills N3 and Turtle was one of them. She was under high suspicion. Even though she apparently claimed Hema, Aman might have missed that because I did also. Or Aman felt she was still suspicious enough to be Elim and wanted to clear the slot.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Whysper

[dannnex male]

Well, here are my reads as they currently stand.

Experience- Very Mild Elim? Being very quiet...

Illwei- Honestly not sure. Giving off pretty high Village vibes, but would also fit HI pretty well. (They’re asking for role claims a lot, they survived an attack, etc.)

Condensation- Strong Elim, but ig it’s a bad idea to lynch Hem claims? Sounds like something an Elim would claim then, just to not be voted out.

Elkanah- None. Don’t know what’s up with them. 

Mist- Also none, but weren’t people suspicious of her at the beginning? What happened with that?

Araris Valerian- Mild Elim. Some of their logic last round doesn’t hold up against a ton of scrutiny, like saying that Village needs to be careful about what they say so that the Elims don’t figure out who the Hems are. The Elims have instant and constant communication, and they have more people and thus more brainpower. I think it makes more sense to just assume that the Elims will have already guessed anything we might guess. Stoping the flow of information between Villagers is one of the best things an Elim can do, and this might be an attempt to do that? 
EDIT: Seems like I got Araris confused with someone else, so read changed to Mild Village for the moment. 

Lord_Silberfarben- Mild Elim. Also excessively quiet, and aren’t they an older player? I can justify newbies being suspiciously quiet a lot more than I could for an older player. 

Whysper- Probably Village. Hasn’t done anything excessively suspicious as far as I’ve seen. 

Lotus- None. Pretty quiet I guess, but I can’t keep justifying Elim reads by just saying they’re quiet. Unless all the Elims are actually being really really quiet =P. 

Vapor- Not sure, but probably the opposite of whatever Connie is, they seem strongly suspicious of each other.

The Windrunner Supreme- No idea, but also being very very quiet.

Flyingbooks42- Very Mild Elim. Yet another very quiet person, but they also had some bandwagony votes. Less suspicious after the Ash lynch, but they could both be Elim.

TJ Shade- Elim. Started the vote against Books after it seemed like Ash was going to be lynched. Very suspicious.

A Windrunner- Yet another no idea. 
 

 

I think it might be a good idea to try a Books lynch again? TJ could’ve started a bandwagon against one of their less active and less helpful Elims as a smart bussing strat. It would’ve saved Ash and made TJ less suspicious, while barely losing anything, as it seems Books has been pretty inactive. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Danex

[Araris Valerian he/him]

15 minutes ago, Danex said:

Araris Valerian- Mild Elim. Some of their logic last round doesn’t hold up against a ton of scrutiny, like saying that Village needs to be careful about what they say so that the Elims don’t figure out who the Hems are. The Elims have instant and constant communication, and they have more people and thus more brainpower. I think it makes more sense to just assume that the Elims will have already guessed anything we might guess. Stoping the flow of information between Villagers is one of the best things an Elim can do, and this might be an attempt to do that?

I'm working on a large post, but I wanted to respond to this. Could you quote the post you are referring to? I just looked through last cycle and didn't see anywhere that I said (or meant to say) anything along these lines. The exception is role claiming. I think there has been a lot of unncessary role claiming this game, and I'll stand by that (which I've done just about every game I've played). Like you say, the elims have better communication and brainpower than we do. Therefore, they can make more efficient use of role information in most cases than a single villager can. Additionally, the elims make plans, while villagers mostly muddle around. Tidbits of information are much more helpful for plans than for muddling. There are exceptions of course, but I get the feeling that a lot of people this game roleclaimed because they felt like they couldn't contribute to the thread much, and that it was something concrete they could do. This is basically exactly not what to do. Regardless, that is kind of all behind us, since said role claims already happened. This is more of a helpful tip from a longtime SE veteran for future games.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[dannnex male]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Could you quote the post you are referring to?

I just looked through everything and I actually couldn’t find it either. =P  I remember thinking this though...maybe I was confusing you with someone else? 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, so we lynched an elim yesterday, and that makes me want to look at all the players who didn't participate. When we had a v/v lynch between Turtle and Reading, 14 players placed votes. When we have a e/? lynch between Ash and Books, only 8 votes are placed. That makes me want to look at everyone who didn't vote.

First on the list is Experience. During the Turtle lynch, Experience voted on Turtle over Reading, which is what Ash (the only know elim) did as well. Experience didn't vote during D1, despite being poked by Supreme. The main content we have from Experience is a giant reads post linked here for reference. We have elim reads on Mist, Turtle, Elkanah, and sort of on Illwei. I guess the vote on Turtle is consistent with this post and comes from reads prior to the hemalurgist claim. For now I'll give Experience a slight village read, but @Experience, I'd like to hear more from you. The post following the lynch seems a little off to me, considering that Exp didn't actually participate.

Next up is Condensation. Similar behavior to Experience during the Turtle lynch. Escaped the lynch last cycle by claiming hemalurgist, which I think Illwei confirmed? I'm having a hard time keeping all the roleclaims straight. I was suspicious of Condensation during C4. However, the Hemalurgist claim seems like it would pretty clearly lead to pressure on Ash, so I'm not sure that elim!Condensation would do that. It would depend on how much she was communicating in the elim doc, but this doesn't seem like a super wise play. So I'll hesitantly give Condensation a village read as well, although again, @Condensation I'd like to hear more, particularly thoughts on the lynch last cycle.

Then we have Elkanah. lkanah nearly died D1, saved by a Feruchemist, who Whysper thinks is village. Elandera tried to revisit the lynch D2, and was lynched instead. I'm going to give him a lot of slack for the QF. Still, that's over now, so I'd like to hear more. For now I'll stick with my village read.

Mist also didn't vote last cycle. However, Mist could reasonably have died C1. The initial opposing lynch on Elkanah was lead by myself, Aman, Whypser, and for a little while, Illwei, all players I read as village (plus Aman). I'd expect at least one elim vote on a counter-wagon to an elim train during D1. So that makes me think that Mist is village, at least initially. Mist also didn't vote in the Turtle lynch, so not voting last cycle isn't as remarkable. I also agree with Mist's most recent post, which reads Condensation as village and voices some suspicion of inactives. Yet again, @Mist, please post more! We just killed our first elim, and you weren't along for the ride.

Silber has been just barely skating past the inactivity filter this whole game. He hasn't really contributed anything helpful at all. Definitely an elim read, since this is what he did when we were elims together in LG 68. I could be convinced otherwise, and Silber isn't a high priority lynch, since he's not voting, but probably wouldn't be a bad Mistborn target. Could be the HI.

Danex hasn't voted in any lynches. I disagree with most of the stuff Danex said last cycle, but can also sort of see where it came from. While you fit the new player profile a lot better than Silber does, you could also be taking advantage of it to skate by. I've got you as slight elim, but really just want to see some lynch participation.

Vapor sort of doesn't belong in this list. She actually has only voted during C4, but her vote was on Condensation, and it doesn't seem like she was around to see the shift onto Books/Ash. The lack of participation and votes makes me read village (not scheming and not really paying attention to the game), but that really isn't very helpful, since we probably can't count on Vapor to vote in a LyLo situation. Could also be the HI.

Supreme has been on my elim list for a while, although Illwei trusts him due to a roleclaim. It doesn't take much thinking from there to guess what that role is, which makes me suspicious that he hasn't been night killed yet. He voted for Turtle during C3, and technically voted during the first two cycles, but wasn't really participating in those lynches. I want to be suspicious for the lack of participation last cycle, but he said it was due to IRL stuff. Still on my elim list.

Last on this list is Wind, who I give the same read as Vapor. He didn't vote last cycle, but otherwise the profile is essentially the same. Basically a village player that probably won't contribute toward win conditions. Could also be the HI.

Next up is thoughts on the Ash lynch itself. If all my above reads are correct, then there should probably be one elim and maybe the HI unaccounted for. Books, Lotus, and TJ are the ones I'm least confident in. If Books is elim, then TJ is probably village. No reason to wagon on Books when Danex was available. However, Lotus voted a bit later, and could have just voted as a bus if both candidates were elim anyway. Also the numbers add up nicely with my other reads. If Books is village, then I'd prioritize Lotus over TJ, since TJ has been more active. But Books has been pretty high on my suspicions list. That doesn't really fit with Danex as elim though.

The only players I haven't really mentioned are Illwei and Whysper, but I think there is a reasonable consensus that they are both village. So my current elim team proposal is:

Silber, Lotus, Supreme, Books, Ash. I think this group could fit the profile of killing Aman last night, especially with Ash missing. Voting for Lotus since I think regardless of the Books flip, Lotus doesn't look super great from the lynch last cycle. I'll also note that if the Feruchemist is elim, we've probably already lost, and if they are village and die, we also are at a serious risk of losing. The two village inactives really aren't helping here.

[+Lotus she/her]

I... I don't have many thoughts.

Illewi PMd me the last night cycle to ask why they should trust me, to which I don't really have a response. I know I haven't contributed much this game, I'm sorry I've been really mentally taxed.

I'm a little suspicious of Experience ad Whysper, but I don't have solid reasons for either of those. The only people I feel like are decently village is Elkanah and Mist, but we haven't seen a whole lot from either of them.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Danex said:

Condensation- Strong Elim, but ig it’s a bad idea to lynch Hem claims? Sounds like something an Elim would claim then, just to not be voted out.

Meant to reply to your earlier post which said "Earlier suspicions have not been allayed" but what were the earlier suspicions? This:

Quote

Mmmmmmm this is tricky, but I think I’m most suspicious of Condensation right now. Too many small things that don’t make sense.

and this:

Quote

Quote

Connie, you're confusing me. You claim village, say you're not mistborn, but you said stuff in PMs and so have others that make me think you're lying. I'd blame that on the fact that you're new, but you seem pretty good at analyzing and have helped me with other games so I don't think you're that bad. I... don't know.

Basically this ^

Your "strong elim" read is based on "too many small things" and based on PMs you weren't in? 

And you seem to sculpt the scenario to paint Connie in the bad light by telling she might be an elim fake claiming when it's be confirmed by Illwei, and any fake info generated to appear as Hemalurgist can easily be disproved and that would be a surefire way of getting caught as an elim. 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

TJ Shade- Elim. Started the vote against Books after it seemed like Ash was going to be lynched. Very suspicious.

This would be a very stupid idea for me to do as an elim. If I was an elim, why would I make myself look bad when Ash had like 3 votes on him? It would be very foolish of me to attempt to save him as he was almost certainly going to be lynched. My vote of Books was supposed to be temporary till all the people answered the questions I had asked, as without the answers Books was my main suspicion. Then I fell asleep and wasn't on because rollover is at 3:30am here (could be confirmed be people who were on at or close to rollover). 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

I think it might be a good idea to try a Books lynch again? TJ could’ve started a bandwagon against one of their less active and less helpful Elims as a smart bussing strat. It would’ve saved Ash and made TJ less suspicious, while barely losing anything, as it seems Books has been pretty inactive. 

You then go one to theorize elim!me would vote on elim!Books, which honestly doesn't make sense. Like why would I start a e/e train when I could have started it on a villager. Feels like an attempt to throw shade on both me and Books. And you just said elim!me would bus Books over Ash for activity reasons. For one, bussing Ash would have given me village cred and not at all involved a supposed elim!Books For two, Ash wasn't all that active as well. And three, wow how ruthless do you think I am? Bussing a new player in their first game because they are "less active" and "less helpful"? I guarantee you we do not treat new players like that. You're just throwing suspicions all over the place. 

3 hours ago, Danex said:

Lotus- None. Pretty quiet I guess, but I can’t keep justifying Elim reads by just saying they’re quiet. Unless all the Elims are actually being really really quiet =P. 

And you're not at all suspicious of the player who actually MADE the attempt to save Ash? Like none? I may have voted first, but I didn't start a "bandwagon" nor did I compel anyone anyone to vote for Books to attempt to save Ash. Lotus was the one who made the lynch into a bandwagon. And you've got nothing on her. Danex-Lotus team up suspected. 

3 hours ago, Danex said:

Flyingbooks42- Very Mild Elim. Yet another very quiet person, but they also had some bandwagony votes.

Literally the same reason I was suspicious about Books. 

Above all:

Quote

Alright, so I guess I’ll do Condensation. If she’s village then the Elims will have to kill her next night, and if they don’t we know she’s Elim for sure. I can wait. 

You're actually more suspicious for voting for Connie, retracting it after the claim and not voting at all. Did not get involved with Ashbringer lynch at all. Pushing a mislynch on Connie ahead of a cycle. Elim!you would know by not killing Condensation, she'd become a mislynch candidate. You also seem pretty annoyed when I asked the Elantrian to protect Connie, as that would give us a reason to tell why Connie survived, so you couldn't push your "she survived, she must be elim" narrative. And also about the fact the suggesting RNG for deciding whom to protect? Weird. Danex

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Then we have Elkanah. lkanah nearly died D1, saved by a Feruchemist, who Whysper thinks is village. Elandera tried to revisit the lynch D2, and was lynched instead. I'm going to give him a lot of slack for the QF. Still, that's over now, so I'd like to hear more. For now I'll stick with my village read.

Elkanah wasn't saved by the Feruchemist. The Feruchemist and Devotary's vote manipulation failed due to some sort of cancellation.

Quote

AnonFeru told me that on D1 when the vote was Ventyl 4-4 Elkanah, they attempted to cancel Ventyl's vote on Elkanah. They weren't convinced by the reasoning to lynch Elkanah and preferred that the lynch be Ventyl. The host feedback said that the vote manipulation failed due to vote manipulation by another Feru.

So it was 4-4, and Ventyl was killed on coin-toss. 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'll also note that if the Feruchemist is elim, we've probably already lost, and if they are village and die, we also are at a serious risk of losing.

If the Feruchemist is an elim, they would have saved Ash last cycle. So I doubt that. 

I'm reading Araris as village. Although there are a couple of things nagging me. Initially I thought there's no way an elim team with Araris would have gone for the Aman kill. But then I remembered him killing Elbereth in a very similar situation (active player gone inactive with the chances of coming back) in LG67. I seriously doubt that's the case this time, with the Hemalurgic mechanism, but just a thing that felt eerily similar to me. Another thing is the Devotary's death, which I mentioned earlier. I'm of the opinion that only Araris, out of everyone alive could have identified Devotary as the Hemalurgist but again, he doesn't fit the elim team. So, what if Devotary was actually Aman's kill? That would make Turtle as the elim kill which makes sense as they wanted a claimed Hemalurgist dead without trusting the next day's lynch (I think by the time Illwei was already advocating for us not to lynch claimed Hemalurgists?). 

Quote

Any reasoning why you voted on Turtle? You didn't mention it when you voted.

@Lotus, I don't think you answered this question.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Elkanah wasn't saved by the Feruchemist. The Feruchemist and Devotary's vote manipulation failed due to some sort of cancellation.

You're right, I was mixing up some things. Elkanah was the coinflip lynch. But my point that Elkanah has been busy stands.

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

If the Feruchemist is an elim, they would have saved Ash last cycle. So I doubt that. 

Not necessarily. If the lynch last cycle was e/e, then an elim!Feruchemist couldn't have saved anyone.

I'd be willing to switch onto Danex depending on how other votes turn out. He doesn't fit quite as well with my other suspicions, but I would guess that one of Danex/Books is elim, and the Lotus+Danex team is definitely a possibility.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[+Lotus she/her]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

 

Quote

Any reasoning why you voted on Turtle? You didn't mention it when you voted.

@Lotus, I don't think you answered this question.

Missed it. Uhh.... what round was that?

[Illwei]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Supreme has been on my elim list for a while, although Illwei trusts him due to a roleclaim.

I don't necessarily trust him, but I don't want to kill him right now. 

Have I voted yet? no?

Danex

Sorry for not being more active right now. Irl things have me exhausted right now. I'm going to try and do some stuff later, I swear. 

--

Hey, if you're the Elantrian that saved me, you should upvote this post ;). I want to know who you are. 

EDIT: I really have no clue why you haven't claimed to me? like- you have to obviously trust me??? I was attacked??? you saved me???

Edited November 4, 2020 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian he/him]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hey, if you're the Elantrian that saved me, you should upvote this post ;). I want to know who you are.

I'm pretty sure this is against the rules.

Also, the cycle is halfway over and we currently have a whopping 3 votes, out of 15 players. You'd think being in the middle of election season would spark the democratic spirit around here, but I guess not.

[dannnex male]

Well I guess I’m going TJ Shade for the reasons in my read post. 

[Straw he/him]

46 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hey, if you're the Elantrian that saved me, you should upvote this post ;). I want to know who you are. 

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm pretty sure this is against the rules.

Yeah please don't try to use stuff like that as a communication method.

[Condensation she/her]

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Next up is Condensation. Similar behavior to Experience during the Turtle lynch. Escaped the lynch last cycle by claiming hemalurgist, which I think Illwei confirmed? I'm having a hard time keeping all the roleclaims straight. I was suspicious of Condensation during C4. However, the Hemalurgist claim seems like it would pretty clearly lead to pressure on Ash, so I'm not sure that elim!Condensation would do that. It would depend on how much she was communicating in the elim doc, but this doesn't seem like a super wise play. So I'll hesitantly give Condensation a village read as well, although again, @Condensation I'd like to hear more, particularly thoughts on the lynch last cycle.

Yes, Illwei confirmed. Thoughts... Mist can confirm that when I heard about us lynching an elim at school, I was excited. I think it's only a matter of time before we get down to the endgame, and I'm feeling fairly confident in us. I really don't want to be pocketed again, Mat pocketed me in QF and I did not catch it at all. At times I was suspicious, but... nope. Nothing. So I'm feeling cautious right now, but I think I'll join the vote on Danex. I agree with the below reasoning(Good job, TJ. You found more than I would have cared to), and I know that I trust TJ Shade pretty well.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Meant to reply to your earlier post which said "Earlier suspicions have not been allayed" but what were the earlier suspicions? This:

and this:

Your "strong elim" read is based on "too many small things" and based on PMs you weren't in? 

And you seem to sculpt the scenario to paint Connie in the bad light by telling she might be an elim fake claiming when it's be confirmed by Illwei, and any fake info generated to appear as Hemalurgist can easily be disproved and that would be a surefire way of getting caught as an elim. 

You then go one to theorize elim!me would vote on elim!Books, which honestly doesn't make sense. Like why would I start a e/e train when I could have started it on a villager. Feels like an attempt to throw shade on both me and Books. And you just said elim!me would bus Books over Ash for activity reasons. For one, bussing Ash would have given me village cred and not at all involved a supposed elim!Books For two, Ash wasn't all that active as well. And three, wow how ruthless do you think I am? Bussing a new player in their first game because they are "less active" and "less helpful"? I guarantee you we do not treat new players like that. You're just throwing suspicions all over the place. 

And you're not at all suspicious of the player who actually MADE the attempt to save Ash? Like none? I may have voted first, but I didn't start a "bandwagon" nor did I compel anyone anyone to vote for Books to attempt to save Ash. Lotus was the one who made the lynch into a bandwagon. And you've got nothing on her. Danex-Lotus team up suspected. 

Literally the same reason I was suspicious about Books. 

Above all:

You're actually more suspicious for voting for Connie, retracting it after the claim and not voting at all. Did not get involved with Ashbringer lynch at all. Pushing a mislynch on Connie ahead of a cycle. Elim!you would know by not killing Condensation, she'd become a mislynch candidate. You also seem pretty annoyed when I asked the Elantrian to protect Connie, as that would give us a reason to tell why Connie survived, so you couldn't push your "she survived, she must be elim" narrative. And also about the fact the suggesting RNG for deciding whom to protect? Weird. Danex

I especially like the part about "sculpt the scenario to paint [me] in the bad light by telling might be an elim fake claiming...", it would make a lot of sense. I also agree with people's reads about Vapor, her continued insistence that I am an elim when she has no proof(she admitted that she thought I was PMing that one time when I had a blanket over the computer). It would make sense if she were the HI, but I don't know. I think maybe it makes too much sense? Does that make sense to you?

Edited November 4, 2020 by Condensation

[dannnex male]

Ok well, since it seems like I’m about to die, and I have nothing left to really say or prove, I’m just going to hard role-claim. 

I am a Loyal Mistborn. I have not used my kill. 

When you find out I’m telling the truth, do me a favor and vote out TJ. 

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Danex said:

Ok well, since it seems like I’m about to die, and I have nothing left to really say or prove, I’m just going to hard role-claim. 

I am a Loyal Mistborn. I have not used my kill. 

When you find out I’m telling the truth, do me a favor and vote out TJ. 

Well...

There's still about 12 hours in the cycle...no? y

[The Windrunner Supreme he/him]

9 hours ago, Danex said:

The Windrunner Supreme- No idea, but also being very very quiet.

Sorry about that. Ive had a lot of stuff to do lately. Im going to vote TJ Shade for the above reasoning

Edited November 5, 2020 by The Windrunner Supreme

[dannnex male]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Well...

There's still about 12 hours in the cycle...no? y

Yeah but I’m not gonna be online for most of it. Figured I’d get my closing remarks in before I forgot. 

[|TJ| he/him]

6 hours ago, Lotus said:

Missed it. Uhh.... what round was that?

Last round. I asked about your "I don't do this normally" and you replied telling you don't vote in the first round. This was my follow up question. 

I wasn't entirely sure about Danex, but they've said they don't have anything to prove, haven't defended themselves, have chosen not to reply to my suspicions. This part only increase my suspicions:

4 hours ago, Danex said:

I am a Loyal Mistborn. I have not used my kill. 

Why didn't you kill me last night? The way you're talking, you're 100% convinced that I'm an elim, and you're not even open to considering the possibility that I'm a villager. So if you're so sure about it, why didn't you kill me last night?