Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

People I've scanned:

N1: Wilson- bad

N2: kas- good

N3: Adavantos- good

N4: orlok- good

N5: no one - role blocked

N6: Lopen- good

N7: Steph- good

N8; Elkanah- good

[phattemer]

Ok, so the only live ones are Lopen, Steph, and Elkanah. And Orlok. We'll know more postmortem, but we have a long day now so let's use it. That should give everyone a chance to get on and discuss.

Oh and Lopen: in re to the reveal with the biochromancer: once people reveal, we'll know who they are, at the very least between 2 people assuming they will lie.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Ookla the Fat

[Clanky he/him]

Honestly I believe that Burnt Kandra is good and that by killing her we just waste time giving the traitors another turn to kill a loyal player while we also lynch a loyal player. I would rather we kill a guaranteed Traitor this cycle i.e., Biggoron and then if we still want to kill the kandra we can coinshot her tonight. 

[queensteph she/her]

Lopen's plan sounds like a good idea and I'm going to go with him, thank you for your sacrifice Burnt Spaghetti.

Clanky, if you'd rather have someone else die then why not vote?

[Elbereth she/her]

In regards to them targeting a more important role than I: I, along with the Elantrian(s), am the most important role. We're the only people they have to gain control of the lynch to kill. We haven't heard from Burnt Spaghetti in a while, and at this point we can't afford to have inactives. Confusing ookla names are confusing. We have, but they didn't say much. Role, Ookla the Overdone?

I hadn't thought about it that way. I suppose that's true. It doesn't mean the Mistborn couldn't target you, but only if you're not roleblocked.

Honestly I believe that Burnt Kandra is good and that by killing her we just waste time giving the traitors another turn to kill a loyal player while we also lynch a loyal player. I would rather we kill a guaranteed Traitor this cycle i.e., Biggoron and then if we still want to kill the kandra we can coinshot her tonight.

Why do you think Biggoron is a guaranteed traitor? I really haven't seen any evidence either way. And I think that as long as the Kandra is loyal, the idea is that although we're killing someone loyal, we have 4 players who are without question loyal, and therefore if anyone tries to lynch them that person is immediately lynched. At that point it comes down to whether the eliminators can kill faster than the combined lynch and Mistborn.

Also, I'm perfectly fine with Lopen's plan, so Burnt Spaghetti it is.

[Clanky he/him]

Lopen's plan sounds like a good idea and I'm going to go with him, thank you for your sacrifice Burnt Spaghetti.

Clanky, if you'd rather have someone else die then why not vote?

I did vote if you look earlier in the cycle.

 

Why do you think Biggoron is a guaranteed traitor? I really haven't seen any evidence either way. And I think that as long as the Kandra is loyal, the idea is that although we're killing someone loyal, we have 4 players who are without question loyal, and therefore if anyone tries to lynch them that person is immediately lynched. At that point it comes down to whether the eliminators can kill faster than the combined lynch and Mistborn.

Also, I'm perfectly fine with Lopen's plan, so Burnt Spaghetti it is.

Well he lied about his role, hasn't been scanned and was protected by an elantrian who hasn't shown up until now. Plus he has been lurking all game until he gets voted for.

 

I said killing the Kandra is fine but I would prefer to do it with the mistborn. We can't use the mistborn to kill traitor voidbringers or Elantrians so I would prefer to use the lynch for that instead of having our mistborn likely get blocked tonight.

[phattemer]

Completely unbiased, but I don't think there are any more traitor Voidbringera or Elantrians. They had a bulletproof Wilson, for Harmony's sake.

[Clanky he/him]

Completely unbiased, but I don't think there are any more traitor Voidbringera or Elantrians. They had a bulletproof Wilson, for Harmony's sake.

Unfortunately I don't think that is correct. It would be nice though. 

[Elbereth she/her]

Well he lied about his role, hasn't been scanned and was protected by an elantrian who hasn't shown up until now. Plus he has been lurking all game until he gets voted for.

 

I said killing the Kandra is fine but I would prefer to do it with the mistborn. We can't use the mistborn to kill traitor voidbringers or Elantrians so I would prefer to use the lynch for that instead of having our mistborn likely get blocked tonight.

How do we know he lied about his role? You said he claimed Voidbringer, right? I don't see why he couldn't be. Unless the order of actions puts Elantrian after Voidbringer? I don't remember.

Ok, let me see if I understand you correctly, because I think I'm missing something. You think we should lynch Biggoron today (because he's lied about his role), and have the Mistborn kill the kandra tonight. If so, by the end of the night two loyals (if burnt spaghetti is loyal) will be dead (and hopefully an eliminator if Biggoron is a traitor), and we'll know if we can trust the four (probably three at that point) confirmed loyals.

If we lynch the kandra now, the eliminators kill a confirmed loyal at night (though if they target one of the confirmed loyals (and the kandra is loyal, of course), there's a 25% chance they'll miss if the Elantrian is good), and the Mistborn has a good chance of killing an eliminator. The difference is that the Elantrian could protect them, and that we know 48 hours earlier that the Kandra was good (or not).

Also, at the end of your post you make reference to the Mistborn likely getting blocked. If you think the Mistborn's going to get roleblocked, why should we wait to kill the kandra with the Mistborn? Sorry, that didn't make sense to me.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Ookla the Star-Goddess

[Clanky he/him]

How do we know he lied about his role? You said he claimed Voidbringer, right? I don't see why he couldn't be. Unless the order of actions puts Elantrian after Voidbringer? I don't remember.

Ok, let me see if I understand you correctly, because I think I'm missing something. You think we should lynch Biggoron today (because he's lied about his role), and have the Mistborn kill the kandra tonight. If so, by the end of the night two loyals (if burnt spaghetti is loyal) will be dead (and hopefully an eliminator if Biggoron is a traitor), and we'll know if we can trust the four (probably three at that point) confirmed loyals.

If we lynch the kandra now, the eliminators kill a confirmed loyal at night (though if they target one of the confirmed loyals (and the kandra is loyal, of course), there's a 25% chance they'll miss if the Elantrian is good), and the Mistborn has a good chance of killing an eliminator. The difference is that the Elantrian could protect them, and that we know 48 hours earlier that the Kandra was good (or not).

Also, at the end of your post you make reference to the Mistborn likely getting blocked. If you think the Mistborn's going to get roleblocked, why should we wait to kill the kandra with the Mistborn? Sorry, that didn't make sense to me.

A voidbringer automatically cancels any kill attempt on them. So the kill never happens and they therefore can't ever be attacked at all. At least that is how I read the rules.

 

The elantrian has the possibility of saving someone whether we kill Burnt now or later so I'm not sure why you say the traitors can't be blocked in my scenario.

 

Sorry I didn't mean the Mistborn getting roleblocked I meant the attack being stopped via elantrian/voidbringer. 

[Elbereth she/her]

A voidbringer automatically cancels any kill attempt on them. So the kill never happens and they therefore can't ever be attacked at all. At least that is how I read the rules.

 

The elantrian has the possibility of saving someone whether we kill Burnt now or later so I'm not sure why you say the traitors can't be blocked in my scenario.

 

Sorry I didn't mean the Mistborn getting roleblocked I meant the attack being stopped via elantrian/voidbringer.

Oh. I just reread the rules, and your interpretation makes more sense, I think. Got it.

Sorry, that wasn't worded correctly. Assuming the Elantrian is loyal (which I don't necessarily think is true), then before the Kandra is dead they don't really know who to protect because we don't know whether to trust the scanned loyals yet. Thus the Elantrian could protect one of those, but also has a good chance of protecting him/herself. But if the Kandra is loyal, as I see it there's a higher likelihood of the Elantrian protecting one of those four (because that's who it's likely the eliminators will target). As I'm writing this, I realize that it depends a lot on the Elantrian's personal thoughts about the game, and in your scenario there could be a similar chance depending on the Elantrian.

That makes more sense. Though if they don't target Phatt (or Biggoron?) and they don't target one of the confirmed Loyals (who the Elantrian is hopefully protecting), then they'll only be blocked if they happen to hit the Elantrian who happens to be targeting himself or a fellow traitor. Right?

I'm not sure how much sense I just made. Finals tend to impede my logical reasoning. Sorry.

[Clanky he/him]

Oh. I just reread the rules, and your interpretation makes more sense, I think. Got it.

Sorry, that wasn't worded correctly. Assuming the Elantrian is loyal (which I don't necessarily think is true), then before the Kandra is dead they don't really know who to protect because we don't know whether to trust the scanned loyals yet. Thus the Elantrian could protect one of those, but also has a good chance of protecting him/herself. But if the Kandra is loyal, as I see it there's a higher likelihood of the Elantrian protecting one of those four (because that's who it's likely the eliminators will target). As I'm writing this, I realize that it depends a lot on the Elantrian's personal thoughts about the game, and in your scenario there could be a similar chance depending on the Elantrian.

That makes more sense. Though if they don't target Phatt (or Biggoron?) and they don't target one of the confirmed Loyals (who the Elantrian is hopefully protecting), then they'll only be blocked if they happen to hit the Elantrian who happens to be targeting himself or a fellow traitor. Right?

I'm not sure how much sense I just made. Finals tend to impede my logical reasoning. Sorry.

 

I understand about finals messing with your head. I've got one in about five hours that I really should be focusing on instead of this. 

 

So can someone without a final-muddled brain weigh in on this? I personally would prefer to get rid of Biggoron in case he is a traitor Elantrian so that we don't need to worry about him protecting from our mistborn tonight.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

For clarification's sake:

• Alvron was killed by a Mistborn, personified in this case as the Captain's pistol (something something you're more than a weapon...)
• The Turn will still end tomorrow. The Night just won't start immediately. I won't be able to get online to say it, but Wilson's (or someone's) been very proactive about locking these threads at the right time without me asking, so the thread will probably/hopefully lock then.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Hellscythe he/him]

I would vote for burnt spaghetti but it'll be such a better "I told you so" if there is 4 traitors and we lose the second we lynch an innocent.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Hellscythe

[phattemer]

Or because you're evil now and you want to get someone else lynched. Just sayin'.

[Hellscythe he/him]

If I was evil I would have already voted for Burnt Spaghetti.

If she's evil she's already dead and that's just one more point in my favor.

If she's good that's one, two, or three less Kandra scan the innocents don't get and another important innocent role down.

 

Seeing as you fake hemalurgist claimed to me I hope you're not offended that I don't trust your word on anything.

[Biggoron he/him]

So, I guess it's pretty obvious that I'm an Elantrian.
But, Clanky, I'll protect anyone the confirmed Loyals tell me to protect.
Would that do it for ya?
Also, Lopen's reasoning makes a whole lotta gosh darn sense, so sorry about this Spaghetti.

[Clanky he/him]

So, I guess it's pretty obvious that I'm an Elantrian.

But, Clanky, I'll protect anyone the confirmed Loyals tell me to protect.

Would that do it for ya?

Also, Lopen's reasoning makes a whole lotta gosh darn sense, so sorry about this Spaghetti.

No it wouldn't do it for me. Why did you claim Voidbringer? What have you been doing with your role? Just protecting yourself? Did you ever reach out to anyone to set up a line to protect anyone else?

[Biggoron he/him]

I protected a few people. They were just never attacked while I protected them. I was about to tell Adavantos, but then he died. I only ever protected myself after I got the heads up that I might be Mistborned. Ofcourse I know now that I should've made more connections, but you learn through failure. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edit: I claimed Voibringer because I was heavily suspicious of Lopen, so I thought it'd have the same effect if I were to be attacked. (clearly misunderstood the roles, but that was my naive train of thought)

Edited December 8, 2015 by Biggoron

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay, here's the explanation. I hope no one minds that I'm going to reveal their role, but at this point, I think it needs to happen to make sure we are all on the same page. So here it is:

 

Burnt(Kandra)

Lopen(Uninvested)

Steph(Feruchemist)

Orlok(Surgebinder)

Elkanah(Hemalurgist)

Elbereth(Mistborn)

Phattemer(Voidbringer)

Hellscythe(Loyal HI)

 

Clanky(Elantrian)- Traitor

Biggoron(BioChromancer)- Traitor

 

Once Burnt is killed and revealed Loyal, this is how I know Biggoron is the BioChromancer and therefore Clanky is a Traitor Elantrian for protecting him. Lopen, Orlok, Steph, and Elkanah will be confirmed Loyal and by Elkanah's loyalty, the HI will be Loyal as well. Elbereth killed 3 Traitors and I think attacked Biggoron last Night, so she's as confirmed as she's going to be. Phattemer and Clanky were both scanned by the HI, so once we know the HI is Loyal, we will know for sure that those are their roles. That leaves one player who hasn't been scanned by the Kandra or the HI. My bro, Biggoron. The Traitor BioChromancer. It will be certain that he is the BioChromancer, so he can't have saved himself. He was saved by an Elantrian, and the only one in the game is Clanky. Everyone else will be confirmed as what they claim, or in Phatt's case, by the HI's scan. Elbereth is the Mistborn since that is the only role unaccounted for and she claimed(well, not exactly, since Arraenae told me first, but......) to be the Mistborn and no one has counter-claimed that role. Oh right, and just in case you guys are wondering about Phatt, I believe he is Loyal because of his role mostly, because I really really don't think the Traitors would get 2 Voidbringers and an Elantrian. That's just too much. If that's not enough proof, look to Night 6 to prove his loyalty. There was no Traitor kill, and there was active Traitors which means that it wasn't because of inactives. It was because Phatt had claimed Hemalurgist to a few people and the HI outed him in the thread, so the Traitors attacked him, but nothing showed up because he is a Voidbringer.

 

Now all we have to do is ( Loyals: Traitors: HI )

1. lynch Burnt, = 6:2:1

2. attack someone with our Mistborn(but will probably be blocked), eliminator kill, = 5:2:1

3. lynch either Biggoron or Clanky, = 5:1:1

4. attack whoever's left at Night(if possible), eliminator kill, = 4:1:1

5. lynch the remaining Traitor. = 4:0:1 VICTORY!!!

 

Again, this is only if Burnt is Loyal, so I'm adamant that we lynch her to make completely sure I am right. I don't like taking chances, especially after I killed Alfa like I did.

 

Edit: Any questions? I think I covered everything, but just in case I didn't, ask away and I'll answer as fast as possible.

 

Edit 2: Changed red color just to make sure my vote is clear.

Edited December 9, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[phattemer]

Clanky, Biggoron, if Lopen isn't right this would be the time to say so. Lopen, what if Burnt is a traitor?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Let's see, if Burnt is a Traitor, then things would get a little more complicated I think. I haven't completely thought through everything in that scenario, but we would know that there would still be a Traitor BioChromancer running around, and we wouldn't have a lot of choices at that point. Orlok is pretty much confirmed to be the Surgebinder because the Alvron message, which he did because he had a hunch that Alv was a Traitor. The HI was Loyal when he scanned you and Clanky, so we know that you are what you say you are and it's fairly certain that Steph is a Feruchemist, so that leaves me, Elkanah, Biggoron and Elbereth. We are claiming Uninvested, Hemalurgist, Elantrian, and Mistborn. I would say that Elbereth's claim of Mistborn is the most trustworthy one since no one has challenged her on that in which case it comes down to me, Elkanah and Biggoron. Biggoron lied about his role, and I know I'm not a BioChromancer or a Traitor, so I would still be suspicious of him. Elkanah would be the only other available player if Biggoron wasn't it, but his claim of Hemalurgist and the things he's said and the things the HI has said lead me to believe he's telling the truth about things. So as you can see, I still think Clanky(because Biggoron was protected) and Biggoron are the Traitors pretty much no matter what, but the only way to be completely sure we win is to lynch Burnt first.

 

Really, I'm not just basing this completely off of roles. I've been suspicious of both Clanky and Biggoron for quite some time. Lately I had begun to think differently because of some things I thought might point to them being Loyal, but I have since written those things off as them being smart people and not just doing blatant eliminator things. One thing I thought I could point out that would point to Clanky being a Traitor is how he interacts with Araris. Firstly, he bases his suspicion of Araris off of another players alignment. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but if you think through it, it makes sense for an eliminator to do what he did. 1. Base suspicion of your eliminator friend based off of another's alignment (Clanky says that if Kipper is a Traitor, then he is going to look closer at Araris.) 2. Try to kill the player in question(in this case Kipper, which happens while he's saving Araris from the lynch). 3. By killing Kipper, he can then say, "Oh, Kipper was Loyal, well, I guess Araris isn't that suspicious anymore." And by saying that, may alleviate suspicion from his friend. or this could happen 4. Araris is killed and he can say, "It's nice to be right about someone being a Traitor!"(which happened in his first post after Araris was Mistborn killed by Elbereth) which will get him some village trust, without him really risking anything.

 

What I think Clanky is trying to do right now is get his fellow killed, which will give him some more trust, at which point he will have to accuse someone of being an Elantrian(who protected Biggoron), which means he will have to accuse the Kandra of being a Traitor, since anyone he could accuse would be scanned by her, or cleared with the ways I am saying. Since the HI would be cleared with Burnt's loyalty, that means we would know that Clanky is the only Elantrian, so he would have no choice but to try to bring her into question.

[Elbereth she/her]

Lopen, you do realize you've practically signed my death warrant, right? And also totally negated my role's use? (unless I tried to claim that I was only in contact with the Mistborn, who is someone else, but obviously that would never work.) There are no protective good roles left, and there's no reason not to kill me unless they were going to try for Phatt and double-tap him. Maybe. Or for one of the confirmed loyals, actually, if the kandra is good. That could actually make sense, particularly if they were to target Lopen.

...I guess you've only half signed my death warrant?

If the kandra was evil, we're back to the beginning, except with one less eliminator, which isn't so bad. Though everyone's roles are revealed now, which isn't so good.

Edited because emoticons are not my strength.

Edited December 9, 2015 by Ookla the Star-Goddess

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm really sorry Elbereth. I didn't want to have to reveal your role, but your loyalty is a major factor as to why I believe Clanky and Biggoron are Traitors and I couldn't very well just say I trust you for no reason. I think it is in the Loyal's best interest that everyone knows what's going on, as I believe that regardless of who is a Traitor, they know pretty much everything, and what they didn't know, they could guess very easily. I don't think they would have known as much as they do, but last Night I stupidly made a PM for "Loyals" and included Clanky in it. I hadn't thought through everything completely when I did that, but since I did do that, Clanky knows everything now, so there was no use trying to hide your role. This is who was in the PM: Burnt, Lopen, Orlok, Steph, Arraenae(she knew everything that Ada knew because she was the Mistborn in contact with him) and Clanky(because he protected Burnt on N4 I think it was, so I thought that pointed to him being Loyal). Just for complete honesty, this was the plan: Arraenae-kill Phatt to confirm him as a Voidbringer, Mistborn 2(Elby)- kill Biggoron to confirm his claim of Voidbringer, Burnt- scan Elkanah(because I thought he was the Traitor BioChromancer, and that the HI had turned). For some reason Alvron was hit instead of Phatt. Elbereth, did you tell Arraenae to kill Biggoron and you would kill Alvron? Because the only other explanation would be that Clanky went behind everyone's back and convinced Arraenae to kill Alvron, and then offed her so she couldn't explain herself. Either way, it doesn't really matter(unless Alv is upset, but I didn't kill him, so I'm not worried about his wrath   ) since killing Alvron just proved to me that he wasn't the Traitor BioChromancer, as him and Biggoron were the only other suspects I had for that role. I'm just curious how that deviation happened.

 

Yeah, you might be killed, but I wouldn't say you're necessarily target #1. They can either roleblock you or just block your kill with Clanky's ability, so you aren't exactly a threat to them at the moment. But anyway, a lot of other players have said this before and I agree with them. Surviving doesn't really matter in the end. You play to win, not survive. At least, that's how I feel.

 

If Clanky and Biggoron are the only remaining Traitors, they could be nice and give themselves up so some more people could survive, but that seems like a weird thing to ask of Traitors, so I'm just playing like we're going to play through all this until all the Traitors are dead.

 

If Burnt is a Traitor, then she would know practically everything as well since she was in the PM and is a confirmed Kandra, so I think she would know everyone's roles.

[Elbereth she/her]

Arrenae just got a little bit paranoid. She told me she was going to kill Alvron. That's why we kind of discussed it, and after we were done I PM'd her with what I thought. Either she didn't get on in time or she stuck with Alvron. She asked me not to say, so I didn't, but that's what happened.

I'm not a threat tonight, for sure. None of the eliminators will die tonight by my hand. But if we kill Clanky, then I'm around to mop up Biggoron if I survive to that Night, whereas if I'm alive we have to wait another day.

Also, I'm guessing that PM is why Arrenae died? Given that as far as I know she didn't tell anyone else her role, and assuming Burnt isn't a traitor.