Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[queensteph she/her]

Hooray! Great job mistborn. I'm glad we didn't have any loyals die this cycle.

It seems strange that the eliminators wouldn't kill anyone though? Unless it would've given away information leading to them.

What are some reasons that eliminators wouldn't kill someone when they had the chance? (asking for better knowledge of SE and it might be helpful in finding the eliminators to look at it from several angles!)

[Clanky he/him]

They could not kill someone because they wanted us to focus on inactives when they are indeed active. Someone also could've just forgotten to place the kill action. However what is most likely in this game is that the eliminators targeted a Voidbringer. Hence no kill and no mention of Elantrian protection in the write-up.

[Alvron]

I'm back.  I'm a little sleep deprived but I can finally spare time to offer my opinions once again.

 

Was Alvron ever scanned? To have survived this long warrants some scepticism as to his alignment... 

I think he might have been supposed to be scanned last cycle, but we didn't hear from Alvron so who knows what actually happened.

I haven't heard anything about Alvrons scan results so maybe the kandra decided on someone else instead or just hasn't revealed the results. If he hasn't been scanned then I will put my vote on him.

I can tell you the results if you want but I don't think I should be the one as no matter which side I'm on the answer is the same: I'm loyal.

 

Was anyone roleblocked last night?  The traitors had a habit of roleblocking who they were going to kill so if no one was roleblocked then it's possible that their BioChromancer was inactive during the day round or at least the end of it.

Edited November 29, 2015 by spɹɐʍʞɔɐq ǝɥʇ ɐןʞoo

[Amanuensis he/him]

Well my guess on Cow was right too. Him being Uninvested makes me slightly less suspicious of the others, but I'm still certain that one more is evil, likely Lopen, though I've got a theory that he's the Traitor BioChromancer.

The Kandra should have scanned him last night so once he posts the code to confirm I'll let everyone know. I'm also leaning towards the traitors being inactive, hence the lack of a kill. I'm pretty sure there's only one Voidbringer left and I've already confirmed him. He's not a player the traitors would go for because his role was revealed in a group PM that Cow was in. Pretty sure he's not the only traitor there either.

Anyway, Kipper and Hellscythe. You two began group PMs with Cow in them. Why? What made you think he was good enough time be included? I never once saw him do anything that seemed loyal.

Can someone make a list of the players who didn't post last turn and another for those who didn't post the second day of it? Probably a traitor or two among them, especially if they've been consistently active before then.

Oh and Araris, FYI, you're approaching the top of my maybe evil list more and more

[Hellscythe he/him]

I'm ok with Cow being a traitor. Kinda sad he was in our PM's but you losers wouldn't talk about anything important anyways. Also he was afk alot.

I'm also ok with there being no skaa kill woot woot! 

Lastly I'm ok with Clanky being innocent.

 

If you're a roleblocked voidbringer tell us and we'll get you some Elantrian Tech Support ASAP!

[Guest]

I made a PM with him originally because I just wanted to, and then I made a group PM that included him because he seemed pretty sharp. Kinda forgot about that as he became less and less active.

[Arraenae]

I agree that the eliminators are probably inactive, but I was looking through the MR9 skaa doc and it turned out that the skaa didn't kill anybody for a night or two because they forgot to submit the kill order on time. Maybe something similar happened.

 

Do mistborn kills come before or after traitor kills? In MR9 the skaa didn't kill anybody when Ripple, who was supposed to send the order, was lynched.

 

EDIT: Is Captain Wurum Heron in any way related to Wyrn Wulfed the Fourth? I was reading Elantris again and I kept on reading "Wyrn" as "Wyrm".

Edited November 29, 2015 by Arraenae

[Araris Valerian he/him]

That's how these things tend to go with me, I'm afraid. I rarely get taken out by the eliminators, I just survive till fairly late in the game and then get targeted all of a sudden. I wish everyone else was as vocal as you are in saying who they suspect, though. Are you suspicious of me since I haven't roleclaimed to anyone?

 

Also, yeah, I'm not really sure what I have done to earn suspicion except for giving honest opinions that occasionally disagree with everyone else. But we'll see what everyone else has to say. Cranky seemed to have some suspicion of me as well.

 

I think that the writeup would distinguish between a voidbringer's protection and no kill getting sent in at all.

 

To consider what happened with the kill last night, there are really 4 options:

1) The eliminators were inactive and forgot to kill

2) The eliminators were active and forgot to kill

3) The eliminators were inactive and didn't want to kill

4) The eliminators were active and didn't want to kill

 

I would say that 2 is really unlikely. So that means that the eliminators either intentionally sent in no kill, or that they were inactive.

 

I mentioned one reason to send in no kill; to draw suspicion onto inactive players. The problem with this is that while it might redirect the lynch for a single turn, it doesn't really accomplish much because the eliminators kind of have to kill people to win, so when the next kill comes through it shows who was really inactive and who was just ploying.

 

Off the top of my head I can only think of a couple other things: Maybe only a single eliminator was active but he got roleblocked. I would have to check and see if Ada said anything about good team Biochromancers, but we might want to know who got blocked if there are any

 

The last thing doesn't really make sense, but it is possible that all of the people that the traitors wanted to kill were in some way connected to someone on their own team, so they didn't use the kill to avoid passing suspicion to one of their teammates. But I think that this is pretty unlikely, since there are lots of people left in this game still.

 

Edit: Cow has not been online since November 11, so he couldn't have sent in the kill orders as far as I know, unless there is a way to do that through email or something. But that was a good point to bring up, Arraenae.

Edited November 29, 2015 by Ookla the Bother

[Guest]

They could have hit a Voidbringer.

[Amanuensis he/him]

It's a combination of things, really. You not role claiming is a small factor but I try not to use that as a reason since that mindset is Mayorish. Maybe I'm just over thinking it, but with your D1 vote on Bridge Boy and your call for Cow's death I've got this head cannon where you're intentionally trying to get yourself cleared by voting for your mates. Cow being inactive would be a great scape goat to that means, and if you are a traitor that means you would have been aware of Wilson's plan to steer the vote away from BB. Also to me it seems your activity levels spiked after the last two talkative-ish traitors died. And there's just generally a lot of things you say that make me question your intentions, and I would fully expect a traitor to piggy back off of some of the ideas I've brought up to try and gain similar amounts of trust and influence. I just really get the too good to be true vibe, but I could be wrong in my reading of you.

EDIT: Also the fact that phatt is following the thread but remaining inactive makes me think he's a traitor trying to watch the thread through emails while participating through the doc.

Edited November 29, 2015 by Ookla the Advantageous

[Hellscythe he/him]

I'm glad no more Hemalurgists died. I feel like you'd all lose faith in any of my posts and my words would be meaningless. But since the faith remains real and I'm still good here's my top 3 suspicions!

 

1. Steph (QueenSteph)

2. Arandar (Araris Valerian)

3. Rae Nova (Arraenae)

I'd like it if we could get everyone's top3 list. (If you have one of course) to shed light on who is against who and such on and so forth and yeah. I encourage you all to voice your suspicions no matter how baseless.

 

On another topic guys do you think it's more likely that we have 2 innocent Kandra (Shallan and Alvron's) or more likely that we have 1 innocent Kandra (Shallan) and 1 evil Kandra (Alvron's)

 

edit: lol thx steph

haha. she was number one!

Edited November 30, 2015 by Hellscythe

[queensteph she/her]

Hellscythe...PK is dead... (I'll post more later but I'm busy atm)

Edit: np I just wanted to be #1

Edited November 30, 2015 by queensteph

[Arraenae]

I'm glad no more Hemalurgists died. I feel like you'd all lose faith in any of my posts and my words would be meaningless. But since the faith remains real and I'm still good here's my top 3 suspicions!

1. Steph (QueenSteph)

2. Arandar (Araris Valerian)

3. Rae Nova (Arraenae)

Why am I on your list? 

 

My suspicions, in no particular order:

 

1. Kipper. Something feels off about him, and on D2 he and Wilson jumped on STINK very quickly. This is just mostly a gut reaction, so I wouldn't put too much weight into this.

2. Elkanah. Seems inactive.

3. Elby. Enough time to help GM QF11 but not enough time to post in LG15?

4. Phatt. Adavantos pointed out that Phatt is following this topic but not posting, which is suspicious. I agree with him.

 

Edited because I mixed up Elkanah and Elby.

Edited November 30, 2015 by Arraenae

[Clanky he/him]

I'm ok with Cow being a traitor. Kinda sad he was in our PM's but you losers wouldn't talk about anything important anyways. Also he was afk alot.

I'm also ok with there being no skaa kill woot woot! 

Lastly I'm ok with Clanky being innocent.

 

If you're a roleblocked voidbringer tell us and we'll get you some Elantrian Tech Support ASAP!

Firstly I don't think the traitors will keep attacking who they roleblock. They will probably still do it occasionally but we can't be sure they won't just role-block someone so that they can be sure that their real target is unprotected.

 

Also just wondering where your statement about my innocence came from. It seems kinda out of the blue.

 

That's how these things tend to go with me, I'm afraid. I rarely get taken out by the eliminators, I just survive till fairly late in the game and then get targeted all of a sudden. I wish everyone else was as vocal as you are in saying who they suspect, though. Are you suspicious of me since I haven't roleclaimed to anyone?

 

Also, yeah, I'm not really sure what I have done to earn suspicion except for giving honest opinions that occasionally disagree with everyone else. But we'll see what everyone else has to say. Cranky seemed to have some suspicion of me as well.

 

 

Yes I will confirm that I am suspicious of you. Your actions so far in this cycle have added to it also. My suspicion of you involves kipper also being a traitor so it isn't like it is set in stone. 

 

Other than Kipper and Araris I am also suspicious of Biggoron. I will admit it is a very newfound suspicion as the person who brought him up in our PM surely knows  but I am fairly confident in it. He has posted enough not to be on a list of inactives but he definitely isn't contributing much. Also despite his lack of activity he sure was quick to respond after his name got coloured in the thread last cycle.

 

EDIT: Vote Colour

Edited December 1, 2015 by Clanky

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I have been calling for the Mistborn to kill inactives the whole game, so you can take that however you want. Actually, Wyrm was an eliminator when he started the Contribution Crusade, and he was upset by the end of that game at having an inactive teammate. But his idea struck a lot of people, me included, as just making the game more fun. Not to mention, when you kill an inactive then some person, traitor or village, has the opportunity to give everyone more information.

 

I guess, but at least one thing I would like to mention is that I don't agree with all of your ideas. I mentioned that I don't think the role distribution you gave really fits what I am used to, and I made a strong case for why I didn't see the Kandra vote between you and BB the same way as you did.

 

And I started the lynch on PK (Feels weird to use this as a defense)

 

Dangit, I had something I wanted to say that was important, but my doormmates distracted me and I forgot. Maybe it will come back later

[Hellscythe he/him]

Oh Clanky I scanned you last night. I know your role.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

 

2. Elkanah. Enough time to help GM QF11 but not enough time to post in LG15?

 

Heh, I'm pretty sure it's Elbereth who's co-Gm'ing QF11, not Elkanah. Close but not quite the right person

 

 

I'm mainly suspicious of Araris, for reasons I've previously specified but I don't have anything on him apart from the kandra voting on BB or Adavantos discussion (but I do have a gut feeling he's evil). Though I am finding him more suspicious now after him leading the lynch on PK.

 

Also, just a heads up, I am going away for a short time so I will not be online (or at least, not able to post) for the second half of this cycle, and will not be back until near the very end of the night cycle. So if there's anything you want to ask me, do so soon and not later.

 

I'll try and post something else before I go (or at least, a vote), but I do have a reasonable amount of stuff to get organised before I leave so no guarantees.

 

Quicklinks:

Pregame

Day 1

Night 1

Day 2

Night 2

Day 3

Night 3

Day 4

Night 4

Day 5

Night 5

Day 6

Night 6

[Clanky he/him]

Oh Clanky I scanned you last night. I know your role.

Ok good to know. Well I guess I can't hide it anymore so I will tell the world! I am a [Redacted]!

[Alvron]

Can someone make a list of the players who didn't post last turn and another for those who didn't post the second day of it? Probably a traitor or two among them, especially if they've been consistently active before then.

Ask and ye shall receive.

 

Day Six posters:

First Half:

Arraenae 4

Clanky 7

Adavantos 6

Kipper 2

Biggoron 1

Elbereth 2

Hellscythe 1

Araris 2

Phatt 1

Steph 1

Alv 1

Lopen 1

 

Second Half:

Kipper 2

PK 1

Araris 1

Arraenae 2

Hellscythe 1

Burnt 1

Clanky 1

 

Night Six:

First Half:

Kipper 3

Hellscythe 1

Clanky 1

Steph 1

Araris 1

Arraenae 2

Lopen 1

Orlok 1

 

Second Half:

Hellscythe 1

Arraenae 2

Kipper 1

Araris 3

Orlok 2

Clanky 2

Steph 1

Biggoron 1

 

Didn't post at all:

Alfa

Elkanah

 

Feel free to double check.  I think I got everything but another pair of eyes doesn't hurt.

Edited November 30, 2015 by spɹɐʍʞɔɐq ǝɥʇ ɐןʞoo

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm also ok with there being no skaa kill woot woot! 

 

Well, technically the Mistborn could be Skaa. You never know....

 

I was gonna post earlier, but I accidentally took a nap instead.   I'm gonna be back in about an hour or so and try to type up a summary for Orlok as well as review and then post my suspicions.

 

I will say this right now though, my first thought about the no-Traitor kill this Cycle was that they hit a Voidbringer. Even with The Cow being inactive, I really doubt that none of them would send in a kill. Of course, like someone said earlier about MR9, they could have just forgotten to send it in.

[Biggoron he/him]

Other than Kipper and Araris I am also suspicious of Biggoron. I will admit it is a very newfound suspicion as the person who brought him up in our PM surely knows  but I am fairly confident in it. He has posted enough not to be on a list of inactives but he definitely isn't contributing much. Also despite his lack of activity he sure was quick to respond after his name got coloured in the thread last cycle.

Pfff, yup. I thought the turn was ending a day later than it did, so when Lopen told me when it was ending I was pretty shook up. So there I went, rushing over here, only to find that I'd been called out! Gasp!!!!1!!2 

But dang, considering the lack of content I've put forth, I'm surprised you're, apparently, "fairly confident" in said suspicion of me?? :0

Also I apologize for my incredible lack of worthwhile contribution. I'm afraid I'm not the best at contributing...regardless of the situation. ;P

And hopefully I'll be getting my top 3 suspicious up later today after I get some sleep + time to look over "everything" a bit more!!

EDITED TO CHANGE "GAME" TO "TURN"

Edited November 30, 2015 by Biggoron

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

To answer Hellscythe's question about 2 Loyal Kandra, or just 1 good one and 1 evil one, I'd say I'm leaning towards 2 good ones. Reasons: Mostly based on the fact that we may have only started with 1 loyal Forger, so if we only had 1 loyal Kandra and they died really early(which one did by the way), it would really put us in a bind. Having 2 Loyal ones would make sense, since if our Forger died early, and 1 of our Kandra died early, we would still have 1 more rather than being without an alignment scanner and without an ability to Forge a new one.

 

 

Summary of the game from Orlok's last post when he was still kind active(so, the end of N4) from the viewpoint of: TheMightyLopen

I'm just going to include the posts I think are relevant, so it may not be all-inclusive.

 

Day 5: Post by Post (Blue text is some comments by me, and green text means that player is confirmed good. Or at least, confirmed by the Kandra.)

 

The kills from Night 4 were RippleGylf(Traitor kill) and Zed(Mistborn kill because of inactivity). Both of them were Uninvested Loyals.

-Arraenae asks who killed Ripple, and Wyrm explains she was murdered by the Traitors.

-Lopen posts that Ripple told him she was role-blocked and he thinks it was a Traitor BioChromancer. Also stated that it's possible she was killed because of something said in PM's about her. STINK votes on Alfa.

-Arraenae votes on STINK because of his vote on a "hemalurgist"(Alfa), and tries to reason out why Ripple was killed. Arraenae states that she doubts Alfa is a Traitor though(because of his claiming Hema), so maybe they killed her because they thought she had a good role?

-STINK counters that by saying that Alfa could still be a Traitor even if he is a hemalurgist.

-PK votes on Alfa, but says that he will remove his vote if he posts.

-Araris supports suspicion on Alfa, but doesn't vote because he doesn't want to kill a Loyal Hema. Also states that he wanted to vote for STINK, but agreed with everything he'd posted that cycle so he didn't.

-STINK gets questioned about him being Forged by BB.

-Alvron gives counter-points for Alfa from PK's accusations.

-The HI votes on Phatt for claiming Hema to someone that wasn't him.

-Burnt Spaghetti(Ookla the Overdone) summarizes Ripple's relevant posts for the game.

-Bort votes on Kipper, based on reasoning he posted the Turn before.

-Ada posts that Alv's Kandra is indeed a Kandra because the HI scanned him. Also votes on and asks Alfa for an explanation about being supposedly Forged into a Kandra.

-Kipper votes on Alfa because of the Forging stuff.

-Phatt responds to the HI's vote on him by saying he will explain why he claimed hema once it's Night. (Apparently it worked, as Hellscythe now says he thinks Phatt is Loyal)

-The HI removes vote on Phatt and puts it on Alfa.

-STINK removes vote on Alfa.

-PK removes vote on Alfa. (Note: Both PK and STINK are dead now and were Loyal.)

-The HI explains why Alfa is suspicious, but removes vote on Alfa, stating he wants discussion. Votes on Bort, without reason.

-Arraenae also votes on Bort, under reasoning that he voted for Shallan, Creccio, and Kipper.

-Araris posts that he's worried about how many votes are being thrown around without much discussion.

-Elbereth warns of the HI possibly having turned. Also some questions for clarification about some things.

-Alvron again questions STINK about being Forged.

-QueenSteph posts confusion as to why Alfa is under so much suspicion. States suspicion of Bort because of Shallan lynch train, but doesn't vote. Also states uneasiness of Lopen( totally unjustified, imo.  )
-after a few clarifications about some things, QueenSteph again posts about not understanding the votes on Alfa. Says she will post more later about Bort.

-STINK explains vote on Alfa. Says it was to make everyone aware that Alfa could be bad, in light of the fact that he claimed Hema.

-Bort defends himself from Arraenae, and the HI.

-Elkanah votes on Bort, thinking his vote breaks a tie between Bort and Alfa. (his vote tally was wrong, but he did break the tie to make it 3 to 2 against Bort.)

-Kipper explains that it is now tied between Alfa and Bort.

-Adavantos explains STINK removed his vote from Alfa, and he also removed his vote from Alfa, making it 3:1 against Bort.

-Elkanah again misreads the votes and states that he'll leave his vote on Bort to make a tie to save the Hema(Alfa).

END OF DAY 5

 

That took forever. I'm just gonna post the votes and results from the Turns you missed after that, since I'm too tired to do the rest. Sorry. If you would still like me to do the rest, I will, but that's all for now.

 

Day 5 votes:

Bort(4): HI, Arraenae, Elkanah, (Feruchemist vote)

Kipper(1): Bort

Alfa(0): Kipper(Feru changed this vote to Bort I think?)

 

Bort was an Uninvested Loyalist

 

Night 5:

Burnt Spaghetti was attacked by the Traitors, but was saved by an Elantrian. (Note: she was also role-blocked for that Night)

STINK was Mistborn killed. He was a Loyal Hemalurgist.

 

Day 6:

PK(3): Araris, Kipper, (Kipper moved a vote from himself onto PK)

Kipper(2): Arraenae, Clanky, Steph

 

Araris' reasons for PK: 1. PK was the second person to vote on Alfa, who is soft-confirmed good. (He is? I don't know about that, and would like to hear how he came to that conclusion.) 2. PK voted for BB to be scanned, which Araris thinks is suspicous because he says he thinks the eliminators would have pushed for his scan since BB's death was quickly approaching, in his opinion. 3. PK hadn't posted much and had only voted 3 times. One of which broke the tie between Creccio and Wilson. That was a little suspicious, sure. 4. Mentions PK's activity levels are different than last game. 5. PK showed up on Ada's "could be evil" list. 

 

 

I still haven't gotten to my suspicions yet, and I really feel like I need to look over things some more before I post them because of certain things I've learned recently. Do we have any kind of confirmation or anything about Alfa? Like, HI scan or something? He hasn't posted in a while.

 

Numbers for Loyalists:Traitors:HI:  11:4:1 or 12:3:1. Could be different numbers than that, but I doubt it. Worst case scenario: 10:5:1 But I think the first two scenarios are much more likely.

Edited November 30, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[Arraenae]

We don't have a lot of votes so far, and I'm pretty sure that not voting is good for the traitors. So here's a poke vote on Elkanah

 

EDITED FOR COLOR

Edited December 1, 2015 by Arraenae

[Elbereth she/her]

Why am I on your list? 

 

My suspicions, in no particular order:

 

1. Kipper. Something feels off about him, and on D2 he and Wilson jumped on STINK very quickly. This is just mostly a gut reaction, so I wouldn't put too much weight into this.

2. Elkanah. Enough time to help GM QF11 but not enough time to post in LG15?

3. Elby. Seems inactive.

4. Phatt. Adavantos pointed out that Phatt is following this topic but not posting, which is suspicious. I agree with him.

I'm here! Although, as Ookla the Overdone said, you did mix me up with Elkanah.

The main reason I've been gone is that I've been away with family. I considered QF11 to be a responsibility, so I made time for it. I didn't consider LG15 as such, and so I chose to spend time with my family rather than work on this. It's also the last few days of November, so I've been working frantically on my novel, which has eaten up a lot of the other time. The secondary reason is that I was worried I might mix up the two games, and have alignment associations for the players in both games, so I decided to try and keep them as separate as possible.

With that said, I'm done helping (not that I did all that much-- Hael did most of it, because he'd already done that sort of thing), and I've read through the thread.

I'm getting the same gut suspcions of Araris, but I'm not putting much credence to them, as I don't have anything at all to back them up. Other than that, I'm basically free of suspicions, which is irritating. Everyone is so good that they fool me completely!

One thing that I noticed is that I have less suspicion of Kipper right now, because he added Cow to a group PM. I don't really see a need for that to have happened if Kipper was also in that same group. I can kind of see him adding Cow in case he died, but I think it's less likely. So there's that.

[Arraenae]

I'm here! Although, as Ookla the Overdone said, you did mix me up with Elkanah.

Whoops. I'll edit my post to fix that.

Too many Ooklas...