Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[STINK he/him]

Death, that still doesn't really explain it.

 

'She acted the same as she did last game! So I voted to kill her.'

 

EDIT: Can't be bothered to make PMs anymore, so if you want to PM me you'll have to make it. I generally have this rule but dismissed it for the first 24 hours of the Night. (it has been 24 hours right?)

Edited November 6, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Elbereth she/her]

This is not an option Alvron. There is no virus. I have cleaned my systems. Twice.

Towards the Shallan lynch. She essentially said(What I read from her post), "I'm contributing now. But I'm not contributing and I'm not going to vote. But I promise I'll contribute later."

That's what she did last game. "I think it's Joe! But I'm not going to vote to cement his lynch."

To me the similarities in plays made her seem like a Traitor and at that point in time was a better lynch than Adavantos. Bridge Boy I had no opinion on.

So between the ____GOOD Adavantos-- AVERAGE Bridge Boy-- SLIGHTLY BAD Shallan_____

I chose Shallan. My fault. I had no idea she would be kandra.

If forgers would like to message me I have some No-Roles that would love to be Kandra. If not that's fine. It's your decision and you'll be more likely to choose a Loyalist if you randomly choose anyways. However you're more likely to choose someone who already has a role. Feel free to turn yourself into Kandra as well.

END OF LINE.

Why are no-roles messaging DeathClutch? Haven't we talked about this? We are not interested in making the HI a hub of information, because he has a good chance of becoming evil. If at that point he has a list of people with no roles, the eliminators know who they don't need to kill. It may keep you alive in the short term, but it could very well result in a game loss because the eliminators woudl only be killing people with roles, every single night. Just... yeah. I was not very pleased to read this.

Also, I don't think it's a good idea for any Forger to turn themselves into a kandra. If the eliminators have a Forger and we only have one, then they have dibs on all powers in the next two cycles. This does not seem like a good idea. I know that turning yourself into a Forger would guarantee the kandra's loyalty, but still.

/end paranoia

Edited for relevancy.

Edited November 6, 2015 by Elbereth (Limelleth)

[Biggoron he/him]

@wilson
I just read over the last few pages of the day turn, and you really did not seem to care at all about everyone piling onto Shallan after you voted. What's up with that? It seems like, if you were a nice little wilson, you would've done more to dissuade the others from blindly following your non-reason to murder someone.


And I'm totally with you on this one, Elbereth. What the plop, no-roles?? Bad! It totally just tells the HI who to ignore if/when
he turns!!

EDITED FOR THE NO-ROLES BIT

Edited November 6, 2015 by Biggoron

[little wilson she/her]

@wilson

I just read over the last few pages of the day turn, and you really did not seem to care at all about everyone piling onto Shallan after you voted. What's up with that? It seems like, if you were a nice little wilson, you would've done more to dissuade the others from blindly following your non-reason to murder someone.

 

Three reasons:

 

One, I was at work, and while I could refresh the page and see what was happening, I couldn't really stop what I was doing at the time to post, at least not anymore than a couple lines that wouldn't really have done anything to dissuade anyone.

 

Two, calling for dissuasion could get an eliminator who would've voted to not vote. If I said anything, it would stop those votes, and we'd have less information than we would've otherwise.

 

Three, it looked like it was going to be a tie, which I was fine with.

[Biggoron he/him]

Hmm..right...the tie vote...
But then Creccio retracted theirs or something?
I was pretty sure it was already pretty lopsided towards Shallan though...
Back to re-reading, I suppose!

Also I feel like Lopen's been suspisciously inactive. Ok so, we're bros irl, so I know that whenever he'd be playing one of these he'd always be telling me everything that'd been going on. And I got the impression that he's been a pretty active player. But I'm hardly seeing anything from him in this game. Does anyone remember how active he actually was in previous games when he was a Loyalist or good or whatever??

EDITED TO ADD THE BIT ABOUT MY BRUH

Edited November 6, 2015 by Biggoron

[queensteph she/her]

@biggoron The fact that Lopen has been a bit inactive could be because 1. I'm using the same computer as him now so he doesn't have as much time to post. 2. It takes him a flippin long time to figure out what he wants to post. Also, whenever he would talk about his ongoing games to us IRL before, it seemed like he wasn't the one posting a lot, but rather just explaining to us what others had said and his thoughts on it. So you can't really base this on real life since now he can't talk to us about this game OR about whats going on in his PMs. I'm not saying he hasn't been inactive, I'm just stating legitimate reasons as to why he's been that way. And of course there's the obvious possibility that he's an eliminator. (ALSO I think he's posted more of his thoughts than you have...)

 

Edit: For any of you that may not have known, I'm Lopen's and Biggoron's sister IRL)

Edited November 7, 2015 by queensteph

[queensteph she/her]

This is not an option Alvron. There is no virus. I have cleaned my systems. Twice.

 

Towards the Shallan lynch. She essentially said(What I read from her post), "I'm contributing now. But I'm not contributing and I'm not going to vote. But I promise I'll contribute later."

That's what she did last game. "I think it's Joe! But I'm not going to vote to cement his lynch."

 

To me the similarities in plays made her seem like a Traitor and at that point in time was a better lynch than Adavantos. Bridge Boy I had no opinion on.

 

So between the ____GOOD Adavantos-- AVERAGE Bridge Boy-- SLIGHTLY BAD Shallan_____

 

I chose Shallan. My fault. I had no idea she would be kandra.

If forgers would like to message me I have some No-Roles that would love to be Kandra. If not that's fine. It's your decision and you'll be more likely to choose a Loyalist if you randomly choose anyways. However you're more likely to choose someone who already has a role. Feel free to turn yourself into Kandra as well.

 

END OF LINE.

 

Emphasis mine, OK GUYS I HAVE BIG WARNING BELLS going off in my head.

Ok so maybe the roleless did go to the HI, or maybe this is just a plot to draw those with roles out by them saying "WHAT THE HECK ROLELESS WHY DID YOU GO TO THE HI???"   and therefore revealing that they were not the ones who went to the HI, which will be showing that they are not the roleless that went to the HI. I mean, if there is a smart roleless person they could come out and say "WHAT, why did you roleless go to the HI????" To draw the eliminators to them and away from those with abilities, but I have little faith in people and wanted to put this out there before our security was booted to outer space (or i guess away from space since we are already in space)

 

This may not be true at all, and I know I might be targeted for this post, but this is a plan that came to my mind while reading Deathclutch's post and I do not want the eliminators to know every single loyalist that has a role.

 

Edit: I know I double posted, sorry about that.

Edited November 7, 2015 by queensteph

[Elithanathile he/him]

I would just like to say that I was in a PM with the HI, and he mentioned that very same idea to me, that the eliminators could use that to gain a list of people to not target. So I think he has a plan for it.

[Biggoron he/him]

(ALSO I think he's posted more of his thoughts than you have...)

 

Oh yeah, no, I've been super inactive. I'm not denying that fact. But I'm not used to this kinda game at all, and he is. I've just been dipping my lil toesies in the water up til now. Therefore it follows that he would be bunches more active than me. And he's only been slighty more, so it feels off to me.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Well I'm not a super active thread poster. There are a few reasons I haven't posted much though. 1. It's still early in the game so I haven't formed a lot of opinions on others that I want to act on yet. 2. I like talking in PM's more(if anyone wants to PM me with any questions or anything feel free). 3. If I do have something to say, it's usually been said by the time I'm gonna post. I don't want to just echo what others already said. (Just look at how that worked out for Shallan)

[Guest]

I feel like this would be an excellent time to have a sibling rap battle, or some other smackdown that is equally nice for spectators. Guys, this is really getting tense.

[Biggoron he/him]

But...

Edited November 7, 2015 by Biggoron

[Metacognition he/him]

Also I feel like Lopen's been suspisciously inactive. Ok so, we're bros irl, so I know that whenever he'd be playing one of these he'd always be telling me everything that'd been going on. And I got the impression that he's been a pretty active player. But I'm hardly seeing anything from him in this game. Does anyone remember how active he actually was in previous games when he was a Loyalist or good or whatever??

 

• You can't use your forum or real life friendship to guarantee to someone that you are speaking the truth. The lack of information, the bluffing, the lies are part of the game.

 

Just want to point this out, guys. Please remember that the Fair Play Rules prohibit using RL relationships to try to establish guilt or innocence (Granted, it's worded in a manner to suggest only innocence, but it's implied and either way, we'll get that fixed to make it more clear ). 

I'm sure you didn't mean to use it in such a way, but this also gives us a chance to remind all of our players, new and old, of this. So, in a way, thanks!

[Biggoron he/him]

Oh, whoops! Alrighty then!!

[Kasimir he/him]

I've been getting a number of requests in PMs to share my suspicions with people. While I think that's okay, if a little odd, I would like to repeat that suspicions should be put in the thread. Not just in PMs. What happens if you die? Your suspicions, your way of voicing them, is lost. (Don't forget C&P from PMs is disallowed (unless Wyrm rules otherwise; this is a general SE rule, but can be overriden by the GM.))
 
So, imagine if you're unlucky and you just expressed your suspicions to a Traitor. Perfect. They don't ever have to share your suspicions with the thread, much less to properly represent them. And the Crew as a whole loses the benefit of your voice, and your perspective. Now, let's think of a better scenario; you're talking to a Crew member. But they don't quite understand some of what you're saying, and they don't really convey it well. And this has happened. Recall what happened in LG12 when the Elantrians' opinions were misconveyed by a Good-aligned Messenger (Seon Holder was the name of the role; Elantrians could not post in the thread and their words had to be carried by PM.) We ended up completely going down a wrong hole and lynching an innocent instead of the Cultist (Eliminator) who was up for lynching.
 
And that's exactly my point: why leave your suspicions up to the vicissitudes of fate and the verbal skill of your interlocuter? Why not just put it in the thread so everyone can hear it directly from you? Why resort to a game of Chinese Whispers?
 
So, let me tell you a story, guys. It's a great story; one of friendship and broness. Oh, and betrayals. It's a good story, a bit funny, just a bit sad. There was this guy called Kasimir, though on Roshar, his name was Kasimar. He was a cool guy, as far as I know. Had a great sense of humour. As it turned out, he was a Seeker (could discover factions; in the game, referred to as a Voidbringer). He cracked a lot of jokes with his bro Wyrm and all was well.
 
One day, a whole bunch of people killed him. But it was okay. Because Kasimar was a Voidbringer, which meant he was too rusting stubborn to die and had 1337 PM powers while he was dying. With one more day left to live, he called out to his bro Wyrm with his dying breath and told him all his suspicions and findings.
 
And then he died. Only to discover that his bro Wyrm was, in fact, a traitor: had, in fact, pushed for his death, and now, all that information was in the hands of a traitor who was planning to bring down Kasimar's faction.
 
THE END.
 
And this, kids, is how I met my forum-bro Wyrm why I will never feel comfortable with the idea of confiding suspicions just in PMs.
 
And I am in fact going to refine my suspicions now, post 'em, add an extra thought on the Kandra, then get back to what I'm being paid to do.
 
Edit: Spelled 'thought' as 'through'.
 
Edit 2:
 
Kas's New Thoughts On The Kandra:

There are two questions here, and they are partly-related:

1. Is the person who contacted you actually a kandra at all?

If someone contacts you and claims to be a kandra who scanned you and has discovered you are Crew, there are several options:

A. They are indeed a kandra and Crew-aligned.
B. They are a Traitor (since they know by elimination everyone else's allegiances.)
C. They are Crew and got lucky.

On this grounds, I would say the only strong evidence for kandra-ness is based on being able to tell you your role, since the odds of them getting that correct by luck are fairly low. (Of course, if you've been dropping hints that indicate your role, then its value as a source of information drops rapidly.)

But you are correct; the alignment of the Kandra-Claimant is also an issue, and I think it can actually help us attempt to resolve the issue in a way that does not require us to ask the kandra to scan for role. To do so, I move on to the second, related question:

2. Is the person who contacted you Crew or Traitor?

As you may notice, this option overlaps with B. in 1. It therefore seems to me that if we can eliminate the option by which the Kandra-Claimant is a Traitor, then by necessity, the remaining options are simply that the claimant is Crew. And that's good for us. Allegiance, therefore, is a useful proxy for determining if the person is lying. (I do not claim, however, that it remains necessarily a perfect proxy.)

So the question boils down to how we can get the Kandra-Claimant's allegiances correct. Now, here, we see that asking the Kandra-Claimant [henceforth 'K-C' for short] to identify a role is unhelpful as it tells us nothing about allegiance.

Suggested ways:

A. Treat them as we would any other Seeker-Claimant in a standard Elimination game: trust, but verify. Do not ever trust 100%, but gradually accord them more trust as they accrue successes, particularly when they succeed in discovering a Traitor and getting them lynched. In other words; this requires caution and continuously being critical--in a reserved way--about the K-C.

B. Your suggestion of the Two Kandra Solution. I would agree that it is a possible solution, and actually rather clever, but it strikes me as one of those things that boil down to players' preference/temperament. (On one hand, it does require that we don't have two Eliminators trying to pull the wool over our eyes...) I do agree that the worry is that we might end up losing a kandra, because if you ask the Team Traitor kandra to scan, they'd probably scan for role, since they already know the other K-C's loyalties. Of course, if they immediately took out the other K-C, it might look really suspicious, so I'm not too sure about that.

My personal preference, I admit, is to have both K-Cs scanning other people and not each other: that way, we can cover more ground. (In fact, if one K-C was a Forged kandra, then all the better: they get to go public with their results after they stop being a kandra. Be hard to verify that in any way except through allegiance verification, IMO.) This would, however, require us to default to A. as a means of identifying if they are or aren't genuine. Since we're on a time limit w.r.t. the HI, and I don't even want to treat it as a given that the HI is unreservedly on our side, the way an ordinary Crew player is, I would prefer that slightly more chancy play.

Kas's Current Suspicions/Questions:

1. Alfa.

Granted, at the time he was posting in defense of Shallan, Creccio had tied the votes up, so perhaps he felt there was no reason to be worried, but all the same, why just defend Shallan verbally? This close to the rollover, why not just slam a vote on someone else to ensure the lynch goes away from Shallan? It's somewhat noncommittal as a defense of Shallan, and as last-minute as it is, it kind of reads very half-hearted, but could be a way of gaining participation cred for having quasi-defended an innocent.

2. Phat

Hard to know; I'm instinctively wary of how he (1) supports lynching on Day 1, (2) claims to be against the Contribution Crusade, and then (3) drops a vote on Shallan and goes off and does goodness knows whatever. On the other hand, I'm not sure Team Traitor would've let him get away with that, but then, it's his normal behaviour.

(1) and (2) are just barely consistent; (2) and (3) are not.

3. Elbereth/PK

I'm not fond of her endorsement of PK's plan because suspicions should really be shared, and with hopefully more people than the HI! The HI is a very bad locus to leave suspicions with. By extension, I'd like to ask PK the same question. [This might also potentially reflect on Bridge Boy, as while we cannot appeal to RL relationships, it certainly is a driver behind kills or attempted ones at times, e.g. Cessie going after Wilson in LG2. Granted, PK did not go after Bridge Boy in MR7, but they had no kill ability (initially) and past that point, it stopped mattering.]

4. STINK

I find he's posting a lot, but not exactly contributing. Just one-liners, and I can't see the logic behind putting up a good player for the lynch on the grounds they haven't been posting much. Sure, we want them talking, that's true, but to actually say we should lynch them? It's a big gamble, because if you're not sure and have no real information to go on, then why risk losing having them on Team Crew if you're lynching blindly, just based on your perception of their threat level? And asking people if they wanted to countervote was really passive and strange to me: why other people? Why not you? What is your position?

While I am unhappy about the way the votes were slamming down late (I tend to get a bit twitchy when lots of vote changes happen last minute--seriously, guys, are we all uni students here? Actually, no, please don't answer that...), I want to make several observations: it's clear that no matter what, thanks to that late switch, Creccio was not vote-jacked. That narrows it down to Adavantos, Maili, Araris, and STINK. The Feruchemist, then, had to be active some point between the initial vote and STINK's vote (at least according to the sequence I've done up, he seems to have been the last guy to do so.) This does not rule out the possibility that any of the three of them was the Feruchemist who did a vote-switch, and if the HI isn't otherwise preoccupied, it might be worthwhile to take a look at STINK or Araris, at the very least, to see if we can rule that possibility out. My inclination would be to suggest that this Feruchemist is probably not on Team Crew.

In the implicated list of Wilson, Kipper, Bort, Creccio, I am less confident about implicating any of them. Due to Wilson's ah, notoriety, I am not confident in my ability to read her, so I will dismiss her for the time being, with neither extra suspicion, nor any less. I am willing to give Creccio the benefit of the doubt for now, and believe I have reason to do so. As Creccio's motives have not been put in the thread as of yet, and I do not deem what I believe to be significant enough to be left in the thread, I will play that close to hand for now. If there were, therefore, any raised eyebrows at the lynch, I would have to be wary of Bort and/or Kipper.
 
It's not uncommon for Eliminators to sit back and allow the Crew to cut its own throat. Barring further information (probably forthcoming tomorrow), while I would be suspicious of Bort and Kipper for the role they played in that bandwagon, I'm hardly going to assume that there must have been a Traitor in that gang.
 
There is one last minor consideration in terms of my suspicion of Bort, and that is just that Eliminator!Bort seems to have a tendency to comment overly on the number of guests in the thread...

Edited November 7, 2015 by Kasimir

[Wyrmhero he/him]

So, let me tell you a story, guys. It's a great story; one of friendship and broness. Oh, and betrayals. It's a good story, a bit funny, just a bit sad.

 

 

In all seriousness, I mostly popped on to say that there are just under 11 hours left in this Turn.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Oh wow, such a great movie!   This is just so hilarious and perfect! 

[Kasimir he/him]

 

In all seriousness, I mostly popped on to say that there are just under 11 hours left in this Turn.

Cap, a gentleman doesn't kiss and tell

Sorry guys, I was gonna post a Spartacus meme until Cap here kind of stole my thunder

[Bort he/him]

So, Lopen and I have been chatting via PM and while coming up with tonight's lotto numbers, we've also come up with a great idea to identify the traitors. Basically, we ask really nicely.

 

So, would any traitors amongst the crew please identify yourselves? If you do so, I can offer you a tasty beardnut as a reward.

 

Both Lopen and I have used this very scientific method to confirm that neither of us are traitors, but are in fact loyal crewmen.

 

As additional notes go:

I also received a PM from STINK. Nothing special.

 

Creccio, sorry I didn't get back to you yesterday. Too much stuff to do IRL and when I got back to my PC I didn't have the bothereds to go back and analyze your posts to pick out the parts that made me suspicious. I'll try to get to it today.

 

Yeah, I can understand why people are suspicious of me after that lynch. If it'll make anyone feel better, go ahead and kill me, scan me, whatever you need to do.

 

Kas, the guest thing wasn't an eliminator tactic, just something that I'd never really paid much attention to before that game. It struck me as amusing how many people visited the thread as guests instead of logging in. I assume to hide their presence here. Like right now (or rather, about half an hour ago when I started typing this post), there is only one guest. So far this game, I think I've seen it up to 5. Maybe 6.

 

I've already made one comment about it earlier in the game. I probably will do so again if I spot a high number. Doesn't mean anything though.

 

Someone, Ada, I think, said something about a comment I made towards the end of the cycle, about being excited. That was just for entertainment value. I realised about two minutes after posting it that it wasn't my first cycle end ever (I've not seen many, since most games are set to a US time frame, but there have been a few). But, I thought it was funny, so left it up.

 

Edit: Oh, I almost forgot. I also received a message from Thoreaux offering to sell me some beard butter to help me grow a long and luxurious beard. It's a great deal, and I suggest you all take it up immediately.

Edited November 7, 2015 by Bort

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

 

Kas's New Thoughts On The Kandra:

2. Is the person who contacted you Crew or Traitor?

As you may notice, this option overlaps with B. in 1. It therefore seems to me that if we can eliminate the option by which the Kandra-Claimant is a Traitor, then by necessity, the remaining options are simply that the claimant is Crew. And that's good for us. Allegiance, therefore, is a useful proxy for determining if the person is lying. (I do not claim, however, that it remains necessarily a perfect proxy.)

So the question boils down to how we can get the Kandra-Claimant's allegiances correct. Now, here, we see that asking the Kandra-Claimant [henceforth 'K-C' for short] to identify a role is unhelpful as it tells us nothing about allegiance.

Suggested ways:

A. Treat them as we would any other Seeker-Claimant in a standard Elimination game: trust, but verify. Do not ever trust 100%, but gradually accord them more trust as they accrue successes, particularly when they succeed in discovering a Traitor and getting them lynched. In other words; this requires caution and continuously being critical--in a reserved way--about the K-C.

B. Your suggestion of the Two Kandra Solution. I would agree that it is a possible solution, and actually rather clever, but it strikes me as one of those things that boil down to players' preference/temperament. (On one hand, it does require that we don't have two Eliminators trying to pull the wool over our eyes...) I do agree that the worry is that we might end up losing a kandra, because if you ask the Team Traitor kandra to scan, they'd probably scan for role, since they already know the other K-C's loyalties. Of course, if they immediately took out the other K-C, it might look really suspicious, so I'm not too sure about that.

My personal preference, I admit, is to have both K-Cs scanning other people and not each other: that way, we can cover more ground. (In fact, if one K-C was a Forged kandra, then all the better: they get to go public with their results after they stop being a kandra. Be hard to verify that in any way except through allegiance verification, IMO.) This would, however, require us to default to A. as a means of identifying if they are or aren't genuine. Since we're on a time limit w.r.t. the HI, and I don't even want to treat it as a given that the HI is unreservedly on our side, the way an ordinary Crew player is, I would prefer that slightly more chancy play.

 

If anyone is curious about what Kas is meaning in 2B, it was in reference to something I said in a pm discussion along the lines of:

In a situation with trying to find if a Kandra was evil, if two people claimed Kandra; get them to check each other. If they both say the other is good, then great, both should be good (provided their not both evil which would not be fun for us if that happened). If they both claim the other's evil then we know that at least one is evil and that team evil has a confirmed Kandra and that it is one of those two players. 

[STINK he/him]

Do we wait for the day now? 

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

Not having the fear of death at the end of the cycle is conveniently comfortable.

 

END OF LINE.

[STINK he/him]

You should really get the death bit out of your name then  

[Guest]

You should really get the death bit out of your name then

The subtle irony is, as always, lost on the British.

[little wilson she/her]

The subtle irony is, as always, lost on the British.

 

Careful. The GM is British.....