LG 112 Pseudocycle Four unCAPTCHAble

[Myst He/Him]

5 minutes ago, Kit_Kat said:

Also, even if I am meta elim, exeing me in the Pseudogame won’t do anything.

Which is why I want to vote pseudo Elims out

6 minutes ago, Kit_Kat said:

How does that require me to be meta elim? Keep in mind that I never had to tell you that I saved you, but I did. If I was elim, I probably wouldn’t have told you that.

 It only works if you’re Elim. If you are not Elim, then unless someone else told you to use your vote manip to save me, Striker’s vote change is completely meaningless because he’d have no way of knowing your vote manip was going to happen.

If we assume my survival was coordinated by the meta Elim team. That requires you to be Elim. If you’re not Elim and someone convinced you to save me, then you should tell us who now.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

25 minutes ago, Myst said:

It only works if you’re Elim. If you are not Elim, then unless someone else told you to use your vote manip to save me, Striker’s vote change is completely meaningless because he’d have no way of knowing your vote manip was going to happen.

Wait are you saying you think that if KitKat flips MetaElim I must also be MetaElim? You underestimate my ability to take stupid actions as a villager.

[Verdance he/him]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Wait are you saying you think that if KitKat flips MetaElim I must also be MetaElim? You underestimate my ability to take stupid actions as a villager.

i have been saying that this entire time

[Myst He/Him]

16 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Wait are you saying you think that if KitKat flips MetaElim I must also be MetaElim? You underestimate my ability to take stupid actions as a villager.

Oh, I don’t think you’re meta Elim right now, but if you are, Kit Kat has to be. If Kit Kat is that doesn’t mean you are, but the reverse is true.

Its highly possible that Kit Kat submitted the order to move a vote after you change your vote(thinking it wouldn’t matter) since she would’ve had plenty of time before rollover to do so.

My point was basically that Kit Kat has to be Elim if you are, and so she’s a better exe than you because she can be Elim without you being Elim, but you can’t be Elim without her being Elim as well.

So I say we exe Kit Kat or a pseudo Elim 

[coco.pudding she/they]

14 minutes ago, Myst said:

So I say we exe Kit Kat or a pseudo Elim 

If we think exeing pseudo elims is the way to go, we should do a pseudo elim today. We’re running out of chances.

Also, if Kit Kat is a meta elim, shouldn’t we exe her in the meta cycle, not here?

[Myst He/Him]

26 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

If we think exeing pseudo elims is the way to go, we should do a pseudo elim today. We’re running out of chances.

Also, if Kit Kat is a meta elim, shouldn’t we exe her in the meta cycle, not here?

Why not both? Gives the Elims less voting power in the pseudo game and makes it harder for them to rig the game

Edit: also with TJ dead that makes it highly likely an alive meta Elim is a coinshot, and we don’t want to leave that alive 

Edited 16 hours ago by Myst

[coco.pudding she/they]

54 minutes ago, Myst said:

Edit: also with TJ dead that makes it highly likely an alive meta Elim is a coinshot, and we don’t want to leave that alive 

True, true.

Would the new coinshot care to reveal themself?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, coco.pudding said:

True, true.

Would the new coinshot care to reveal themself?

Something about the way you said this has me going “hmmmmmmm”

[Divergent He/Him]

18 hours ago, Myst said:

My very bad summary as follows:

we have 4 meta elims

the meta Elims bet on a pseudo Elim victory 

Coco, Kit Kat, and Ver are 3/4 of the meta Elims. We don’t know who the 4th is yet

The Elim role composition includes a GM, a thread controller, a retiree, and an unknown role.

Do we know all of this for sure or is this / some of this speculation?

18 hours ago, CadCom said:

I agreed last cycle that I would make a fairly detailed analysis today (from my perspective) I'll try to include a more neutral summary in it. Working on it now. No promises it happens Today, but for sure this cycle. 

15 hours ago, CadCom said:

I’m not going to focus on the People analysis as much, at least at the beginning, more the public results of what happened. Maybe a bit of what information was shared in the thread.
PC1:
Xino was Killed. Action later claimed by Myst Flipped PE
Coder Dragon Exed: Myst, Hoid, Xino. Flipped PV

MC1
Coder Exed:Hoid, Coco, Myst, Mippo, Flipped MV Retiree
Mis Fallen was Killed: Thread Controller

PC2
Tineye message that Striker is collecting Investiture
Myst Exed: (Qian, TJ, Araris, Hopper, Coco.) PV coinshot
Verd was Killed PV Tineye
PMs are still open, so There is at least one other PTineye.

MC2 
Hopper was killed MV Roleplayer
No Exe, as we didn’t reach the threshold due to vote manip. (5)
Myst had 4 votes, Qian, CadCom, Araris, TJ, Mippo. Those that didn’t vote for myst were Myst, Hopper, Hoid, Kit Kat, Verdance, Striker. Xino also had 4 votes Hoid, Myst, KitKat. 

PC3 
It was revealed during the day’s discussion that both Hoid and Coco had role changes making them Coinshots. 
Hoidslayer was exed.(Coco, Striker, Araris, Kit Kat) PE Coinshot 
Coco died PV coinshot. 

MC3
TJ died. MV PseudoIM
Myst Exed, (Myst, Qian, Striker, KitKat, Araris, coco, TJ, CadCom) Vanilla MV

A bit of analysis surrounding my Summary: I still have icky feelings about the failed exe on Myst on MC2, so that’s where I’m going to go first with my analysis. 

So I want to look at the progression of votes in that cycle now. Especially since we know that Myst is MV. 

Quian votes Myst 
Hopper votes Striker
CadCom votes Myst
Araris votes Myst
TJ votes Myst
Hoid votes Xino
Myst votes Xino
Striker votes Myst
Mippo votes Myst 
Kit_Kat  votes Xino
Verdance votes Verdance
Striker Moves to Verdance

My thoughts here are that immediately, Striker is the most suspicious, as their vote single-handedly saved Myst, dragging out the apparently inevitable for an additional cycle, keeping us from moving on to other targets. In addition to that, they reportedly have collected a large amount of investiture or engineered a large amount of investiture to coalesce in someone else. It feels very fishy to me. 

So on the next Metacycle, I think a Striker @StrikerEZexe is a good option to consider. I’m torn on whether it’s beneficial for the pseudocycle. Feel free to PM me if you want my thoughts there, just know I'm still working them out. Because I'm not certain how I feel about that vote, it's more to stimulate discussion, and it's highly possible I change it as new information is presented to me. 
 

Appreciate this, will look over this again once I've read the previous days

[Divergent He/Him]

Still midway through Pseudocycle Two and I nearly confused a Striker post from a Cadcom post... that neon green in their pfps are so similar 

[Kit_Kat She/Her]

11 hours ago, Myst said:

Which is why I want to vote pseudo Elims out

 It only works if you’re Elim. If you are not Elim, then unless someone else told you to use your vote manip to save me, Striker’s vote change is completely meaningless because he’d have no way of knowing your vote manip was going to happen.

If we assume my survival was coordinated by the meta Elim team. That requires you to be Elim. If you’re not Elim and someone convinced you to save me, then you should tell us who now.

No one told me or coordinated with me to save you. I thought exeing you would be a miss-exe and I was trying to exe Xino instead. I mis-calculated and accidentally made a draw. Striker drawing his vote back was a lucky coincidence.

 

10 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Wait are you saying you think that if KitKat flips MetaElim I must also be MetaElim? You underestimate my ability to take stupid actions as a villager.

This applies to me as well.

If you guys exe me in both, there will be a very interesting and unnecessary write-up.

[Divergent He/Him]

Caught up and only had the energy rn to read the Pseudocycles. I'll hopefully have the time to get to reading the Metacycles tomorrow

After reading the previous Pseudocycles, I came out of it feeling really confused?? Is it the general sentiment that people are indifferent about meeting their wincon in the Pseudogame? Because I'm confused why Hoid claimed Pseudo Elim in C2 and then TJ outed himself later that cycle. Mist also fakeclaimed Lurcher as Village and reading C3, it feels more that people care about Metagame outcomes

Also, I felt like social reads were kinda sparse outside of the people who were being considered for exe and I'm confused if that's just how it has been in this game, or if those are in the Metacycle threads or if those have been just discussed in PMs (are PMs open?)

 

Anyways, thoughts on the other 11 players alive:

1. Star - Pops in two different cycles to just say that they don't have anything to contribute. My initial read of it was that it feels suspect, but I agreed with Araris saying that an elim would be more likely to give something more inspiring than that. Also inclined to townlean them based on Striker placing sus on them as I think Striker's elim (more below)

2. Striker - I agree with Mippo saying in C2 that the buildup on Myst was weird and quick, and feel inclined to believe that at least one of the three who hopped on that vote is elim (Araris, Striker, Qian). I feel most suspicious of him among the three and he also made a post suggesting a Hoid/Myst pairing while voting Myst, which feels like behavior that is typical from elims, in that they'd make V/E pairings to distance with their teammates while voting for the V in that pair, so then they could move off that sus once the V flips. Also didn't like him saying in C1 that there hasn't been much actual vote discussion and at the same time, not really offering any thoughts on his end either. Other than that, I think my reservation with this scumread is that it's weird that Striker has now voted twice for dead villagers (Verdance in C3 and Coco in C4), and it makes me uncertain if he is elim as why would he not be aware that they're dead (since they were killed, I guess maybe if they've been killed by a V!Coinshot?? Wondering though if there's still more considering many have flipped already). Scumread

3. Qian - I felt suspicious of him from the way that he was piggybacking off of Araris' Myst vote, which changed because Hoid made the same observation and he is elim lol. I feel like Qian is spewed town from Hoid angling to vote him and the position he's taken towards him at least from C2 where he was like, Araris and Striker have justified reasoning for voting Myst. Townlean

4. Hopper - He was one of two people who pushbacked on Hoid suggesting to treat the Pseudogame as a regular game, which I felt was an unpairing interaction

5. CadCom - Tbh, I kinda glossed over the longer posts. There was a post in C2 that I skimmed where I felt like it had too many words that I feel like could have been more concise for what it was saying. Idk if that's just typical behavior to expect from him. Feeling inclined to townread though based on his behavior which reads more as being pro-town

6. Mippo - The other person to push back against Hoid's plan to play this as a regular game in C1, which I felt was unpartnering. Outside of that, I have liked some of his content such as pointing out the fast wagon on Myst in C2. Townread

7. Araris - His C1 felt kinda eh, but C2 forward, he's made pushes that have tried to progress the village wincon and in general, his behavior has been quite townie. Wish I noted it down though cus I can't elaborate on it more rn, but townreading him

8. TJ - His C1 also left much to be desired, it didn't feel very town!TJ because he didn't really try to do any solving outside of mech discussion, which I felt is what I'd expect more from t!TJ. C2 he stepped up and I thought the way he approached for voting Myst was towny in the way that it felt he believed in the push and not just walking it as an easy misexe for that cycle... but then he outed himself as elim?? So like huh...

9. Kit_Kat - I've seen posts from them, but honestly they were very sparse and I don't remember any of them

10. Lettuce - I don't remember that they posted, like, at all?? Do they exist only in the Metagame. Myst said that the slot is elim, so can someone tell if that's speculation or a fact?

11. Miss Fallen - I also don't remember that they ever posted

Current reads as they stand

Townreads - Mippo, Araris, CadCom

Townleans - Qian, Star, Hopper

Null - Kit_Kat

Scumleans - Fallen, Lettuce

Scumreads - TJ, Striker

Striker

Also, do we know why only Xino was killed on C1? And not anyone else? Finding it odd no one died when Xino was a Coinshot and there wasn't a factional either

I also don't get the voting thing, I saw a link to the spreadsheet on the Pseudocycle 1 and dunno if that's still the one we're using or there's a different one per cycle

 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

53 minutes ago, Divergent said:

2. Striker - I agree with Mippo saying in C2 that the buildup on Myst was weird and quick, and feel inclined to believe that at least one of the three who hopped on that vote is elim (Araris, Striker, Qian). I feel most suspicious of him among the three and he also made a post suggesting a Hoid/Myst pairing while voting Myst, which feels like behavior that is typical from elims, in that they'd make V/E pairings to distance with their teammates while voting for the V in that pair, so then they could move off that sus once the V flips.

Okay, not sure if you missed this because it was in a MetaCycle or what, but I’ve literally still been going for Hoid. Just because I was wrong about Myst being a MetaElim doesn’t mean I think I’m wrong about Hoid being one.

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

1 hour ago, Divergent said:

After reading the previous Pseudocycles, I came out of it feeling really confused?? Is it the general sentiment that people are indifferent about meeting their wincon in the Pseudogame? Because I'm confused why Hoid claimed Pseudo Elim in C2 and then TJ outed himself later that cycle. Mist also fakeclaimed Lurcher as Village and reading C3, it feels more that people care about Metagame outcomes

So the Thing is the result of the Pseudogame is not as important as the Metagame and is a bit tricky what your wincon is. The Meta Elims bet during N0 if the Pseudo Village or Pseudo Elims will win the Pseudogame and are theoreticly trying to influence the Pseudogame in that direction. The Metavillagers do not want the Bet to succeed and should be trying to get the other outcome, they unfortunately do not know what the Meta Elims have bet on and who they can trust, because allignment between the Game can differ.

If the Metaelims win the Bet they get one conversion

If the Metaelims loose the Bet, half of the living Metaelims get outed

[Qianweilian He/him]

2 hours ago, Divergent said:

After reading the previous Pseudocycles, I came out of it feeling really confused?? Is it the general sentiment that people are indifferent about meeting their wincon in the Pseudogame? Because I'm confused why Hoid claimed Pseudo Elim in C2 and then TJ outed himself later that cycle. Mist also fakeclaimed Lurcher as Village and reading C3, it feels more that people care about Metagame outcomes

Basically, as our GM said, throwing the game as either pseudo village or pseudo elim is a legitimate strategy, if you think the meta elims bet on the other side winning.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Apologies for my absence so far. Are we going to assume now that the meta-slims are going for a village win? We have 2-3 pseudo-elims left, I’d assume. I guess coco makes the most sense to exe here for being made a Coinshot when the meta-elims may have thought that there was no pseudo-whatever role can see roles. I don’t think coco’s flip will tell us too much though.

As for meta-elims, Versace is locked in pretty hard, and I’d prefer to exe him first. We don’t want any outed elite left alive when we win the bet, since we could “learn” their identity. There’s also a small chance that Verdance has just been lying as a villager this whole time, and we don’t want to build any speculation on a faulty foundation.

I guess I’m kinda skeptical about Kit Kat and Striker being elims, especially with Myst flipping village. If Kit Kat’s manip could have stopped Myst’s exe on its own I’d say that looks bad, but Striker also needed to swap his vote to enable that option, and I doubt the elims would out two of their members just to delay an exe by one turn. So I’m leaning towards “village misplay” for these two rather than elim. I’d agree that Kit Kat is the more suspicious of the two by a decent margin though, since vote manipulation is private.

[Through The Living Star She/Her]

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Apologies for my absence so far. Are we going to assume now that the meta-slims are going for a village win? We have 2-3 pseudo-elims left, I’d assume. I guess coco makes the most sense to exe here for being made a Coinshot when the meta-elims may have thought that there was no pseudo-whatever role can see roles. I don’t think coco’s flip will tell us too much though.

 Coco is already dead in the Psuedocycle

[coco.pudding she/they]

3 hours ago, Divergent said:

Also, do we know why only Xino was killed on C1? And not anyone else? Finding it odd no one died when Xino was a Coinshot and there wasn't a factional either

Yeah, so Myst killed Xino and the elims tried to do a kill but the person who was going to do it got roleblocked because their shard world was destroyed. We don’t know if Xino or Coder tried to do a kill.

3 hours ago, Divergent said:

I also don't get the voting thing, I saw a link to the spreadsheet on the Pseudocycle 1 and dunno if that's still the one we're using or there's a different one per cycle

We’re not doing spreadsheet voting anymore. It’s normal in thread voting now.

24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess coco makes the most sense to exe here for being made a Coinshot

Y’all really gotta stop trying to double exe me I’m already dead ya know

[Questioning Lettuce She/Her]

5 hours ago, Divergent said:

10. Lettuce - I don't remember that they posted, like, at all?? Do they exist only in the Metagame. Myst said that the slot is elim, so can someone tell if that's speculation or a fact?

I do exist, I just don't post a lot.

I'm mildly overwhelmed by the game, and am still trying to figure everything out.

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

I've been a little suspicious of Striker for a while, and I'd like to get information with his flip.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

17 minutes ago, Through the Living Hopper said:

I've been a little suspicious of Striker for a while, and I'd like to get information with his flip.

Care to elaborate on why you’re suspicious of me?

Also, anyone got a VC?

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

VC:

Striker (3) Cad Com, Divergent, Hopper

Kit Kat (1) Striker

Dead Coco (1) Araris

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Araris Valerian You willing to vote KitKat with me? Or would you prefer someone else? Maybe Lettuce?

[CadCom he/him]

Ok. So far, Hoid, Striker, and Araris have all asked if we could, or directly voted for Coco. Oddly enough that gives me townread on all of them. Since COCO IS DEAD HERE. I would think the M!Elims would know that by now and be a bit more coordinated. Even though I have leaned a bit more town on Striker, they're still in my Neutral zone, so I don't know how I feel about voting KitKat, right now. 

@gms @Through the living Wahr @The Unknown Medallion Maybe this was in the rules but I missed it, but after a pseudo-elim is killed in the pseudo-game, do they still have access to the pseudo-elim doc? and can they still comment in it? Maybe @Hoid Slayer or @xinoehp512 could answer that question since you were both pseudo-killed? 

Edit. Can I vote for Coco?

Edited 38 minutes ago by CadCom

[Myst He/Him]

@Divergent

the meta game is really all we care about. So we’re not really interested in winning the pseudo game, just making it so the meta Elims don’t win their bet. 
 

So, things to know:

TJ, Hopper, Araris, and Fallen are all cleared in the meta game(Araris is a bit subjective but not too much)

as for my brief summary and which parts we know and which parts we don’t, the only part we really don’t is that they bet on an Elim win(that’s my opinion) everything else I think everyone agrees with