Long Game 81: Lasting Integrity?

[ashwastaken]

Just now, Archer said:

A vote? On ME?? I am shocked, shocked that my clever machinations were foiled by such dumb a luck as RNG. How could it be that you have ruined three hours worth of planning with the simple click of a button? I am shookth- be quiet, notifications, I'm monologuing

Stunning monologue, right there.
 

Also I totally agree that we probably won’t end up lynching someone this cycle, but like I feel like it’s probably beneficial if we try to??? I’m sorry, this might just be midnight-me talking, and I haven’t really taken a lot of time to consider wether or not voting on the first cycle is a good idea, especially since we don’t know the distribution of elims for sure.

[Archer]

2 minutes ago, ashwastaken said:

Stunning monologue, right there.
 

Also I totally agree that we probably won’t end up lynching someone this cycle, but like I feel like it’s probably beneficial if we try to??? I’m sorry, this might just be midnight-me talking, and I haven’t really taken a lot of time to consider wether or not voting on the first cycle is a good idea, especially since we don’t know the distribution of elims for sure.

*high-fives in EST*

I figured today would come down to let's either exe Player One or Player Two, or Player One or Nobody. I'd certainly like to have a valid threat of an exe, to get some reactions. The tricky part about this game is the need for consolidation. The elims will likely target active participatants to increase their thread control in the late stages of Day rounds. Then they have the power to jump off wagons, turning say a 7 person train into a 4 person one that fails, or to add to new ones to get a mix. So we'll probably need to commit the last half or so of Days to consolidation, then use the Night and first half the Day for idea sharing if we're ever going to pull off a successful elim kill. 

[Lahilt]

Hello everybody.

[ashwastaken]

8 hours ago, Archer said:

*high-fives in EST*

Heck yeah rollover is 10 minutes before my school ends

also, can we like, get some real discussion here? I feel like all we’ve done is rule discussion and poke votes, and some real random non-game-related stuff. I feel like without roles or PMs D1 is gonna be super superficial unless someone claims elim, which would be… interesting. 
 

*distantly wonders how much sleep I got because I woke up at 5:30*

Edit: ooh two pages! Good job, I guess?

Edited October 22, 2021 by ashwastaken

[Mat]

4 hours ago, ashwastaken said:

also, can we like, get some real discussion here? I feel like all we’ve done is rule discussion and poke votes, and some real random non-game-related stuff. I feel like without roles or PMs D1 is gonna be super superficial unless someone claims elim, which would be… interesting. 

I mean yeah, not much to say. Games are slower on this site then elsewhere... I'm always open for a discussion but also I'm pretty bad at starting discussions  I guess we can talk about gut reads and such, but I think I've said all of mine...

[Mage]

Well, since it is the first day and I am new at this game, I have no idea who to vote for. This has always been a problem of mine with Mafia. So I guess I'll choose randomly and vote ashwastaken? There is a 1/11 chance I'm correct. Not great odds and I would hate to kill a fellow loyal honorspren, so let me know if I should rescind this vote.

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Mage said:

There is a 1/11 chance I'm correct

Technically higher than that

Mage

[Araris Valerian]

Yeah I think I'll join on Mage. That post seems a little contrived.

[Mat]

Hmm

Araris/Mage e/e? :P.

[The Unknown Ajah]

14 hours ago, Azmine_king said:

Oh, I just realized that even though we need majority to lynch, it still isn't a hammer. I guess lets get a wagon going on someone and we can go from there, how aboutttt Mat

This feels contrived, and since my vote on Mat was pure joke and never ment to stick: Az

[Araris Valerian]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm

Araris/Mage e/e? :P.

Well, if I'm right about Mage, given that I'm practically guaranteed to be elim myself, that must be correct.

Edit: We need a bus emote I think

Edited October 22, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[ashwastaken]

27 minutes ago, Mage said:

Well, since it is the first day and I am new at this game, I have no idea who to vote for. This has always been a problem of mine with Mafia. So I guess I'll choose randomly and vote ashwastaken? There is a 1/11 chance I'm correct. Not great odds and I would hate to kill a fellow loyal honorspren, so let me know if I should rescind this vote.

1. It’s actually 1/10 to you as you dont know my alignment but know you’re village (unless you aren’t) but because I know I’m village its a 0/3 or 4 chance I’m elim to me, and a 0/x (x being the number of elims) chance I’m elim from your point of view if you were elim, as you would know all the elims and know the number. 1/11 is only if you dont know your own alignment. I therefore assume you do not know your own alignment, and therefore are not a threat because even if you are elim you wouldn’t have access to the elim doc unless you checked your gm pm and thus saw you were an elim in the process. 

 

2. Oak shook their head, smiling. “Unless you want to risk the integrity of our race, you may want to rescind that vote of yours. Thank you for coming to my ted talk.” Oak frowned, brows creasing. Why had he said that? What was a ‘Ted Talk?’

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, ashwastaken said:

1. It’s actually 1/10 to you as you dont know my alignment but know you’re village (unless you aren’t) but because I know I’m village its a 0/3 or 4 chance I’m elim to me, and a 0/x (x being the number of elims) chance I’m elim from your point of view if you were elim, as you would know all the elims and know the number. 1/11 is only if you dont know your own alignment. I therefore assume you do not know your own alignment, and therefore are not a threat because even if you are elim you wouldn’t have access to the elim doc unless you checked your gm pm and thus saw you were an elim in the process. 

I think the original reasoning here is flawed in enough places that "not having read GM PM" is not the most likely explanation. My personal take is that it's hedging. An elim could definitely post misleading probabilities (in the case of a newer player, likely at the behest of their team) in order to throw people off.

[ashwastaken]

Mostly for myself but:

Mat: Az

Danex: Lani

TJ: Danex, Archer

TUO: Ash, 

Ash: Mage

Mage: Araris, mat

Az: TUO

There’s a lit of weird stuff going on here, and I’m not sure what to think about all the stuff going on here. Also, if I missed anything, please tell me? 

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think the original reasoning here is flawed in enough places that "not having read GM PM" is not the most likely explanation. My personal take is that it's hedging. An elim could definitely post misleading probabilities (in the case of a newer player, likely at the behest of their team) in order to throw people off.

This… was mostly a joke? It was also kind of fun to write, but I was basically explaining that the 1/11 was wrong and then got myself on a tangent  I doubt anyone would actually post in the thread without reading their gm pm, but I figured it was an interesting possibility? 

[Mat]

I mean, when I said the probability was off I was referring to there being more than one elim

But that's also true

[Archer]

Hm. Confusing the thread with the mystic art of math is a classic elim tell, but I’m giving the cactash a pass for now because they’re driving discussion. :P. That said, I was confused by their explanation of their poke vote. Danex also advertised their vote as a poke. It’s never made sense to me to say it’s a poke if you’re genuinely trying to scare someone.

Mage’s post is full of things I don’t like. Distancing from the consequences of their vote by claiming newness and RNG isn’t a great look. I’d tend to agree that it looks like the elim doc told them to be low profile because of how isolated the statement is, with few connections that could draw attention.

I like the thought process behind TUO’s vote, but Az made the post fairly early in the cycle, so the vote isn’t that suspicious to me. The framing Az went with is notable though; focussing on consolidation that early in the cycle does seem off.

I’d like to get some consensus on our elim team size predication, and whether skipping exes makes sense.

8 hours ago, Lahilt said:

Hello everybody.

Howdy! I forgot to say hi to all the people I haven't played with yet, so hi to the rest of you as well. When in the cycle do you like to vote, Lahilt? I see you're not really getting in on the poking game

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Hm. Confusing the thread with the mystic art of math is a classic elim tell, but I’m giving the cactash a pass for now because they’re driving discussion. :P. That said, I was confused by their explanation of their poke vote. Danex also advertised their vote as a poke. It’s never made sense to me to say it’s a poke if you’re genuinely trying to scare someone.

You did that your first elim game didn't you

I remember this now  I spec'd that one.

But advertising as a poke I don't think means anything either way. I did it, it's just a thing that happens. I wasn't trying to scare Tani, though. (Even if it's late October)

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

I like the thought process behind TUO’s vote

I don't, fwiw. But you're obviously entitled to have your own opinions  TUO's first vote was better for me tbh

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

I’d like to get some consensus on our elim team size predication, and whether skipping exes makes sense.

I agree with 3. Skipping D2 I think would be more helpful than D1, or D3 even- we need information to move forward, and two flips before D2 will be way better than one.

Depending on how the game moves forward from there I could see a case for skipping at any point, but I think we should exe someone today.

[danex]

9 minutes ago, Archer said:

I’d like to get some consensus on our elim team size predication, and whether skipping exes makes sense.

I really have no guess as to elim team size. The majority vote exe feature really throws a wrench in the usual way we think about that. 

Maybe there's only one. I can see illwei doing that.

They definitely don't have thread control, so at most there are 5 and then this is exlo, which it probaly isnt, so i'd say elim team is most defintely between 1-4 (which is kinda just obvious from the get-go) but beyond that I'm really not sure. 

 

edit: I think we should definitely try to exe someone every cycle. the only real action we have is voting and exeing, if nobody dies, we essentially lose an entire cycle of potential vote analysis and the elims get a free kill

 

edit2: the only time i think maybe we should abstain from exeing is exlo, because then we could delay the end one cycle.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Danex

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, Danex said:

I really have no guess as to elim team size. The majority vote exe feature really throws a wrench in the usual way we think about that. 

I don't think it does at all, but /shrug

9 minutes ago, Danex said:

Maybe there's only one. I can see illwei doing that.

I can't  Not in a game without roles or PMs.

Four is too many with the ratio, and two isn't enough. In my opinion.

[ashwastaken]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't think it does at all, but /shrug

I can't  Not in a game without roles or PMs.

Four is too many with the ratio, and two isn't enough. In my opinion.

Yeah I’ve been thinking two or three elims from the get go, although I dont know anyone here enough to know how Illwei would distribute the roles, but we do actually know that the game is dysfunctional with 8 players and best with 10+, so it’s definitely no more than 4 elims.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Hm. Confusing the thread with the mystic art of math is a classic elim tell, but I’m giving the cactash a pass for now because they’re driving discussion. :P. That said, I was confused by their explanation of their poke vote. Danex also advertised their vote as a poke. It’s never made sense to me to say it’s a poke if you’re genuinely trying to scare someone.

Uh, what does Cactash mean? 

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think the original reasoning here is flawed in enough places that "not having read GM PM" is not the most likely explanation. My personal take is that it's hedging. An elim could definitely post misleading probabilities (in the case of a newer player, likely at the behest of their team) in order to throw people off.

…this is D1, right? >.> I really hope no one was mislead into thinking someone hadnt read their gm pm, cause that’s kind of important.

I can promise I’m not elim, or otherwise I would be playing the way I did my first game where I was like ‘Yo how do use an action’ even though I’d already asked that to my elim buddies. That was really fun.

10 hours ago, Lahilt said:

Hello everybody.

Hi! Thoughts on the game so far? 

Anyways I probably won’t post many in-depth post by post notes here unless someone asks me my opinion on something.

[Lahilt]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Hm. Confusing the thread with the mystic art of math is a classic elim tell, but I’m giving the cactash a pass for now because they’re driving discussion. :P. That said, I was confused by their explanation of their poke vote. Danex also advertised their vote as a poke. It’s never made sense to me to say it’s a poke if you’re genuinely trying to scare someone.

Mage’s post is full of things I don’t like. Distancing from the consequences of their vote by claiming newness and RNG isn’t a great look. I’d tend to agree that it looks like the elim doc told them to be low profile because of how isolated the statement is, with few connections that could draw attention.

I like the thought process behind TUO’s vote, but Az made the post fairly early in the cycle, so the vote isn’t that suspicious to me. The framing Az went with is notable though; focussing on consolidation that early in the cycle does seem off.

I’d like to get some consensus on our elim team size predication, and whether skipping exes makes sense.

Howdy! I forgot to say hi to all the people I haven't played with yet, so hi to the rest of you as well. When in the cycle do you like to vote, Lahilt? I see you're not really getting in on the poking game

I usually work during the day so I am more likely to vote in the evenings EST.

I did not really have time to get into the poke voting this morning.

So for analysis I do not see too much I can read into this game I expect 3 elims to be the most likely. The majority vote does make things a bit interesting as that will have players bandwagoning to ensure a kill.

I will poke TJ. I am not sure how to RP  as an Honor spren will have to think about it.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Lahilt
spacing

[Mat]

1 hour ago, ashwastaken said:

Uh, what does Cactash mean? 

I think like cactus + ash

Like your pfp + username

Edited October 22, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[ashwastaken]

17 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think like cactus + ash

Like your pfp + username

Ohhh hahaha that’s lovely. I’m really proud of that drawing. I thought it was some SE specific term-

Also I wish I could see what the spec doc looks like rn, like if there’s anyone screaming at me that something I said was incredibly stupid

[Mage]

5 hours ago, ashwastaken said:

1. It’s 1/10 to you as you dont know my alignment but know you’re (unless you aren’t) but because I know I’m village its a 0/3 or 4 chance I’m elim to me, and a 0/x (x being the number of elims) chance I’m elim from your point of view if you were elim, as you would know all the elims and know the number. 1/11 is only if you dont know your own alignment. I therefore assume you do not know your own alignment, and therefore are not a threat because even if you are elim you wouldn’t have access to the elim doc unless you checked your gm pm and thus saw you were an elim in the process. 

 

2. Oak shook their head, smiling. “Unless you want to risk the integrity of our race, you may want to rescind that vote of yours. for coming to my ted talk.” Oak frowned, brows creasing. Why had he said that? What was a ‘Ted Talk?’

Oh yeah, I guess it isn't quite 1/11. My math was sloppy. Since I know my village alignment that reduces the suspect pool to 10, so the chance of a random guess being an elim is # of elims / 10.

4 hours ago, Danex said:

edit: I think we should try to exe someone every cycle. the only real we have is voting and exeing, if nobody dies, we essentially lose an entire cycle of potential vote and the elims get a free kill

I rescind my vote on ashwastaken and switch it to TJ. That way we get closer to a majority. Whatever the math is, every time we execute someone, innocent or not, we get more information on who is actually guilty.

edit: I would love to see an honorspren ted talk. It would probably involve a lot of ranting about broken oaths, and not much presentation of actual research, but I would appreciate it from the POV of a twisted sense of humor.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Mage

[ashwastaken]

the unknown order I was going to rescind this vote earlier but I just… forgot? Anyways, I’d like to know other people’s thoughts on lynching someone d1 here versus waiting? I think voting would make the most sense with a 3/11 elim distribution, but if we lynch a villager and there are 4 elims we’d be screwed, but I don’t really think there are 4 elims soooo my immediate thought is lynch somebody (possibly an inactive)  I haven’t played in a while so I’m not entirely certain.

also just had a thought what if you had to use APA citations in Sanderson elimination in order for a vote to count?