Mid-Range Game 53: Unmade, Remade

[---]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

Except converting someone removes their information just as well as killing them does. I think I agree with Kas/Mat here, at least that strategically keeping your odds of getting randomly voted out low is a solid play. I personally would probably just convert Kas, but that would just be for fun.

Which is why a kill N1 is much worse for sja than a kill N2. 

Your reasoning doesnt match your reasoning. 

A conversion doesnt remove your information, it changes it and adds to it. Which shows with the more information you have. 

Say I'm Sja. Someone is suspecting me D1, or is helping the village along to see its me. What do I do? Do i kill them? No, i convert them. The next day they work off of their suspicion of me, and its completely normal. Becuase d1s change easily with the more info you have. Now i have a trusted (by the village) companion. How neat. 

Now say I'm a different Sja. This time i dont think things through and kill that person who was suspecting me. What happens now? Well, if i dont want to die alone and lose the game, i should get in a convert this next cycle just in case someone kills me at night/eliminates me and I need to have a chance at my faction succeeding. So here comes day 2 and someone is much more set on me. Maybe day 3 by the time i convert someone. At this point i have a choice, to kill someone who is a threat, to convert someone who is a threat, to convert someone who is townread but not a threat, or to kill someone who is not a threat. And only one of these is the best move.

 - killing someone who is a threat eliminates them from the game, obviously

 - killing someone who is not a threat means that threat stays alive and active. Closer to me dying

 - converting the threat means that they have to change their reads. Change them further on into the game when that could be seen as more suspect than earlier on. This will lead to both sja and their convertee being outed 

 - converting someone else leaves the same problem as killing them. 

When the kill would almost be random otherwise, theres no reason to kill insstead of convert

[Ashbringer]

26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

(@Ashbringer)

Hi!

... oh, edited vote. I see. Bold of you to assume I check things frequently.

[Kasimir]

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Except converting someone removes their information just as well as killing them does. I think I agree with Kas/Mat here, at least that strategically keeping your odds of getting randomly voted out low is a solid play. I personally would probably just convert Kas, but that would just be for fun.

 

Get. Off. My. Porch.

37 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This goes for everyone playing sja-anat: they wouldnt want to kill someone N1. Day 1 is when people have the least amount of info and are the least of a threat. If you kill (semi-randomly) on n1, then you need to get a convert in sometime later, and the later you get in the game the more you want to be killing people because the more information they have. The fact that Mat and Kas expressed that they would kill instead is ??

The fact that this fits Sja's current profile is interesting and definitely makes me take a second look at Eiwlil.

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Say I'm Sja. Someone is suspecting me D1, or is helping the village along to see its me. What do I do? Do i kill them? No, i convert them. The next day they work off of their suspicion of me, and its completely normal. Becuase d1s change easily with the more info you have. Now i have a trusted (by the village) companion. How neat. 

Now say I'm a different Sja. This time i dont think things through and kill that person who was suspecting me. What happens now? Well, if i dont want to die alone and lose the game, i should get in a convert this next cycle just in case someone kills me at night/eliminates me and I need to have a chance at my faction succeeding.

Except that you've created an artificial dichotomy within your calculus in order to gerrymander your argument into functioning.

But Sja can survive a Night Kill. Why would Sja feel urgency to convert? In fact, NKs only burn one charge, so getting lynched is - on balance - worse for Sja. 

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So here comes day 2 and someone is much more set on me. Maybe day 3 by the time i convert someone. At this point i have a choice, to kill someone who is a threat, to convert someone who is a threat, to convert someone who is townread but not a threat, or to kill someone who is not a threat. And only one of these is the best move.

 - killing someone who is a threat eliminates them from the game, obviously

 - killing someone who is not a threat means that threat stays alive and active. Closer to me dying

 - converting the threat means that they have to change their reads. Change them further on into the game when that could be seen as more suspect than earlier on. This will lead to both sja and their convertee being outed 

 - converting someone else leaves the same problem as killing them. 

This is the artificial dichotomy. The moment Sja converts anyone, all reads become dubious. Anyone will be scrutinised - the perspective that this will immediately be bad for Sja is the perspective of TMI and seems to suggest you're thinking a little too distantly from Village fog-of-war. Your reasoning relies on a specific, gerrymandered scenario where Sja is under threat from one persistent player and the threat is sufficient to get Sja lynched, to the point Sja has to do something about it. In a conversion game with multiple players, and with one-on-one PMs. Only Dai-Gonarthis can create up to four, if at all.

I don't see why converting the threat means they have to change their reads. They don't. This works on the assumption that Sja is going to be the top suspicion and pursued relentlessly. How does the Village get so organised that Sja gets this cornered by C2 or C3, especially when C2 is the ideal cycle to hide activity because of Cher?

Ultimately the main thing this discussion is doing is making me more suspicious of Illwei and it's led me to the thought that Illwei's logic is predicated on Sja attracting enough attention she feels she needs a convertee. I think this would convince me to look towards the slightly more active players rather than the inactives: being under the radar is a sweet spot for Sja and that Sja is unlikely to feel pressure to convert, assuming that's what happened this cycle rather than mindgames.

But the cycle is yet young and I'd like to hear from Elan first.

Edited to add: The point is that being a negative read doesn't entail being on the lynch menu. Eliding that difference points to Elim hypersensitivity. There's a fine needle to thread between being suspicious and suspicious enough to be top of the lynch. I'm not comfortable with this elision and I feel that strategic read of Sja just seems to come more naturally from the Elim siege mentality.

Edited September 22, 2021 by Kasimir

[Mat]

Is it weird I kinda want to kill Kas again 

[Kasimir]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Is it weird I kinda want to kill Kas again 

Without setting a bad gamethrowing example, I cannot say I wouldn't be appreciative as I should probably go back to playing Wrath and Sja can't target dead players. Hope you're not Village though because that flip won't look too hot on you and I'd rather not everyone waste a cycle chasing their tail on you otherwise :eyes:

[Ashbringer]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Sja can't target dead players.

Furious scribbling for future game

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Without setting a bad gamethrowing example, I cannot say I wouldn't be appreciative as I should probably go back to playing Wrath and Sja can't target dead players. Hope you're not Village though because that flip won't look too hot on you and I'd rather not everyone waste a cycle chasing their tail on you otherwise :eyes:

Fair, but you can’t blame me for being paranoid you’ve been converted or are just Sja  

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Furious scribbling for future game

............. 

Note to self, stay far away. Can't chase the GM off my porch though, wouldn't be right. Rest of you stay off! 

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fair, but you can’t blame me for being paranoid you’ve been converted or are just Sja  

That's fair yeah. I don't think it'd be the most strategic choice on Sja's part but that being said, I saved my database so I can game again and thus can't say I'd be disappointed to be dead

[---]

Kas. The perspective of TMI is exactly the pov that is needed and expected from an argument that is specifically trying to see what sja is thinking

Im not going to go through this. That'd be a waste of a wallpost that would be repetitive and boring to read, so I'm just going to say what i said above. That yes my argument assumed TMI. of course it did. Knowing the rational path and feeling the pressure as an elim are two things. 

Elims are just generally more self aware than villagers. Not just passively self aware,  actively self aware. Will they be in the spotlight? Who knows. Will they not want to be? Who knows. 

And really it just goes back to what Araris said. Objectively? Convert > kill. if you kill someone n1 and n2 then youd be at 9 v. 1 assuming the village kills people. If you convert instead then youll be at 8 v. 2

"What illwei? Why 8!!?!?"

Oh thats right. As long as there are 2 or more elims, sja can convert and the non-sja elim can perform the kill.

So lets rehash. 

 - killing d1 is practically random anyways, so you dont let a threat you need to kill escape the next day.

 - converting d1 allows you to functionally silence two village voices the cycles on

 - the longer you leave people alive the more information they will have and have voiced when converted

So yeah. Objectively? Killing somekne D1 is worse. There shouldn't be an argument here. This shouldnt even be a topic discussion really. 

Kas talking about how they wont be wanting out of the spotlight brings up a good point though. The Elims want to waste and/or misdirect the lynch as often as they can. 

Kas not dying/offering himself up yesterday was objectively anti-town. Do i think he's sja anat right now though? 

 

...

 

Meh. 

Kasimir

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Get. Off. My. Porch.

Oh, bother. *scratches head* For some reason, I had thought I was climbing the honey tree in your front yard. Your porch seems rather taller and buzzier than most porches.

[Elandera]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

they're the players to go for unconventional doctrines

I appreciate this greatly! But also, I'm not sure conversion D1 is the unconventional play. Yes, chances of getting voted off are low when it's random, but if the odds are against you, that's game over. Getting a second person quickly helps cover the worst case scenario.

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I am always highly suspicious whenever Elan vanishes from mind.

Reading through last cycle and found this. This is a good observation, but the reason I disappeared was because the game vanished from my mind. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Elandera

[---]

Kasimir

[Droughtbringer]

Okay, gonna read through everything and post specific reactions here:

Rules:
No lynch minimum means that we could have just not voted at all to see if the RNG would help us win, but considering the turn has passed and it's not super likely to come up again...
Re-Shephir seems like it could be a scary ability. I imagine that could combo with the conversion action to convert multiple people. If so would that take multiple charges, or not?  (Changed upon reading Cycle 2 writeup) Either way, though, I'd point this ability out as something to be careful with because it could duplicate actions we do not want duplicated.
Death Rattles seem like a really fun, cool mechanic, and I'll probably spend either very little time or too much time on mine.
Saj-Anat has 5 charges, which is a solid number. Could make a significant elim team with that, or just have some really hard to take down.
Order of Actions (Roleblocks-->Re-Shephir-->Protects/Vote Manips/PM Abilities-->NKs-->Conversions-->Scans) this means that any scans will always give us the right information... so long as we survive. 

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Okay first things is to avoid paranoia about Sja converting our top trusts. So in order to avoid this, we do not give trust reads at all. Or at least we just say who we think is village without assigning any importance to how trusted they are. This is to avoid the case where we might end up trusting a player and then have to worry about Sja Anat converting that player and then us being paranoid of a trusted player in case they aren't actually converted.

@|TJ| - I don't know if this is a great idea. Posting reads is a fundamental part of getting reads on other people, as finding fake/suspicious reads is just very useful information. I definitely think we should be guarded with our reads but I think we should say more than just the binary 'village' 'elim' options.

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The best way I can see to identify who the villains are is to see how player's opinions and actions change over time. Spotting the inconsistencies will likely be critical to identifying who has been taken by the Taker of Secrets. To that end, I suggest that we state our opinions as we normally would, and try as best we can not to let paranoia consume us.

@xinoehp512 This is a great point, furthering what I was saying earlier, the more information that we can get to the village the better.

This is just a general thought back to the Random lynch if no one votes, I think this does a fantastic job of encouraging day 1 voting, as you just kinda.. have to vote if you don't want some random bloke to die.

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And yes, shifting reads is the name of the game, but... okay well I see your point. You're saying give top trusts reads and then notice changes if any to find suspicion. But normally, people (I don't include you smh, you paranoid read everyone till the end of the game :P) don't do that, they give top trust reads and barely change it during the game (at least after a trust tier is set). 

|TJ| - Your entire sets of ideas here comes off to me like a villager with an idea that... we (as in the rest of the players) just didn't agree with. I do think you bring up a good point here, that we should really be redoing our trust reads once a cycle. Well, at least our village trust reads, based only off of things that have happened since the last conversion takes place.

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Heads-up boys and girls I'm a stormspren so I won't die the first time, but I encourage you to vote on me anyway. Even if Sja eventually goes for me, it denies her a full-strength Thug, it brings me one step closer to death and blessed release, and if you actually think Illwei is right and I'm Sja-anat, I'll lose two charges that way. I'd also rather we burn a compulsory lynch on a Village Thug than on an actual Villager mislynch unless you're dead certain you can do better than random and net us Sja today.

@Kasimir - This is so convenient to post right as some suspicion starts to come on you, but it also reads like a village. I feel like Sja would have waited to claim stormspren instead of doing it this early. There could be a big brain play of claiming that for a future notice, but it reads fairly real to me.  I think this also soft clears you for this cycle (to conversion, at least) because it is highly unlikely that Sja would take a risk converting someone who might die (OOA would have not had the convert go through because kills are first, but getting a few more players on the board is probably a priority for Sja)

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Anyway, my point stands. Unless everyone else other than Illwei has a stronger candidate (and I do - lynch Illwei), I propose myself as the lynch candidate. It's a win/win for everyone - we don't mislynch a Villager (unless we're fairly certain we have Sja), if you think I'm Sja, I'll have lost two charges, which is still a good thing for the Village, since that's less conversion charges. If you think I'm not Sja, my point and Mat's about the odds still stands considering everyone except Sja starts Village.

Kasimir - Oooh. Those are some really good points. Like maybe a crazy Sja play, but I'd be quite surprised.

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i am operation on two hours of sleep any arguments against me are automatically invalid

@Illwei - I honestly just confused by this post. I read it one way, typed up a response, read it another way, typed up a different response, read it a third way and already went through the work of getting a quote one here so it's staying. 

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 I can't remember Drought that much though

@The Unknown Order Don't know if we've ever met, or played a game together. Nice to meet you!

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Yello!

I'm not saying stuff cuz there's not much for me to say.

Kas, you should come help us kill Araris to keep Arenta off your porch. Also, Araris isn't helping you die.

Here, how about this: If you help us kill Araris this cycle, I'll help you kill you next cycle. Unless you don't want me to.

@Tani - There's always tons to say! I would like to hear more from you, as this post doesn't have much on your reads just on... killing people.

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I'm going to venture the claim that a low activity player is the best one to off D1, so as to cut down on the prospect of a convert hiding in the weeds of inactivity. And self-voting seems to be trending this cycle. So, xinoehp512.

Xino - I'm uncertain why you voted on yourself here, Kas has a pretty great, thought out argument but this just seems to be a self vote. Doesn't read village, I'm just confused by it  

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Hi, I'm here. On the Kasimir kill, I wish I had put more time into accusing people to get their responses. At this point in the cycle, I'm afraid four hours means we should be firming up our lynch options rather than bringing more into the fray so I'll get on the Kasimir is a stormspren wagon. My tinfoil hat is yelling at me saying this is Sja Anat trying to gain village credit, but I don't think that would be Kasimirs way to play this.
Reasons for voting Kasimir
1 He asked us to
2 Prevent a powerful conversion (both in role and player) that would only take one charge.
3 Everyone continues to play a fun conversion game.

Tinfoil thoughts
1 Kasimir wants to gain our trust as Sja Anat, will survive the first kill and pretend that makes him a bad choice for Sja, but still gets two conversions for a three elim team in a relatively small game.
2 Kasimir regrets signing up and is telling us he is a storm spren so we attack and kill him and he can relax in the spec doc.

As long as we don't trust him based on his surviving, lynching Kas this cycle may not be the worst way to go. 

@Elkanah (I just changed the formatting on this post to be a bit smaller height wise) - All great points and I'm just going to use this moment to talk about more about my read on the Kas situation here. Sja would gain a decent bit of trust from this play, but have high risks. Kas is now going to be on our radar as a possible Sja until we find the other one, or kill him (or lose the game, but...), and would have lost 2 points out of five. That is a significant hit with relatively little gain. Do we still keep an eye on Kas? From now until forever, but I would be quite surprised if he was Sja.

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And I mean, it's telling too, isn't it? Players who are too off from how Sja is behaving - that's a datapoint. Players who are too on the money - that's a datapoint. We force Sja to blend in and talk casually about that. Just trying to eke more out of this C1, really.

Kas - This is a really good point. The more we post, as the village. No, strike that, the more information and reads ands guesses and thoughts that we give out as a village the more information we have to win the game. This is prevalent in all games of SE, but especially so in Conversion games. So, I'll say it again, everyone please say stuff!

 

And onto Cycle 2!

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m still bothered by Tani, but not going to vote there, since it didn’t go anywhere last cycle. I’m currently thinking some sort of CC might be a good way to start things off, since Sja has plenty to gain by staying quiet and not much to lose. I’ll vote on Drought for now. 

I just honestly haven't had/made the time till now, but fair.

3 hours ago, Illwei said:

Which is why a kill N1 is much worse for sja than a kill N2. 

I agree with this, if I was Sja I would want to convert night 1; giving more information, more actions, more chances to make the plays that will win you the game. Depending on who was converted Sja might go for another one this cycle. I imagine if they got an unmade for two charges and are now down to 3 then they'll hold off on converting to try and get some more info on roles to try and keep at least some form of an extra life for the future, but if they got a 1 charge convert then I could see them going for another conversion with this cycle.
A Kill on N1 would reduce the village by the same amount, but lack the information and power that can be gathered by a conversion.

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Furious scribbling for future game

Please let me know when this game is up, that sounds delightful.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Kas talking about how they wont be wanting out of the spotlight brings up a good point though. The Elims want to waste and/or misdirect the lynch as often as they can. 

Kas not dying/offering himself up yesterday was objectively anti-town. Do i think he's sja anat right now though? 

I strongly disagree with this. I've talked about it a bit earlier in this massive post (sorry everyone about that), but taking center stage as Sja just seems like a bad idea to me. I do not believe that Kas offering himself up was an elim play, that is such a massive risk in a game where you're the only elim and failure means near instant loss of the game. That being said, I don't read this post as an elim post either. I see this as another villager disagreeing with Kas' plan, but not an elim trying to get Kas lynched.

 

Final Thoughts: That was a lot to read through... and now you all have even more. I have a few people I'm reading village, but no one that I'm reading strongly elim at this point. I won't be voting for now, but I will by the end of the cycle

[---]

34 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

strongly disagree with this. I've talked about it a bit earlier in this massive post (sorry everyone about that), but taking center stage as Sja just seems like a bad idea to me. I do not believe that Kas offering himself up was an elim play, that is such a massive risk in a game where you're the only elim and failure means near instant loss of the game. That being said, I don't read this post as an elim post either. I see this as another villager disagreeing with Kas' plan, but not an elim trying to get Kas lynched.

I thought i said i didnt think he was sja. I also think he isnt not sja. 

Good to see we have one sane person here though. 

My point being though that kas claiming suprise + him offering himself up + a converter d1 just. Fits. It doesnt risk failure. It what, takes away two charges? Thats honestly a lot but it leaves three which is good for 1, 2, or 3 converts iirc. And frankly with just one convert you alreasy have enough to be getting functionally two kills a cycle. 

Regardless of if he was sja or not, kas would almost always be my first pick convertee. 

EDIT: 

Also, Drought,  you say you have village reads? Shoot them at me and ill shoot them down

Edited September 23, 2021 by Illwei

[Frozen Mint]

Alright guys, so I requested a pinch hitter Life is just too busy right now. Hopefully I'll get to play a conversion game some other time.

[Ookla of Colors]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Is it weird I kinda want to kill Kas again 

Hey me too. Kasimir.

[Mat]

Hot take: Tani converted Illwei

[Araris Valerian]

I'm impressed with Drought's post, and am happy to join Mat on Tani. I'm mildly opposed to killing Kas, at least for this turn.

[Droughtbringer]

51 minutes ago, Illwei said:

My point being though that kas claiming suprise + him offering himself up + a converter d1 just. Fits. It doesnt risk failure. It what, takes away two charges? Thats honestly a lot but it leaves three which is good for 1, 2, or 3 converts iirc. And frankly with just one convert you alreasy have enough to be getting functionally two kills a cycle. 

Regardless of if he was sja or not, kas would almost always be my first pick convertee. 

EDIT: 

Also, Drought,  you say you have village reads? Shoot them at me and ill shoot them down

It would just be 2 converts max, possibly just one if they got the unmade. One of the clarifications was that Sja can't self kill with a convert.

Village Reads:
Kas - I just don't feel like someone would pull that off of Sja, it seems like a stupid, risky play. I also don't think that Sja would have converted him as he was being lynched, and sure he likely was telling the truth, but if he was lying because he wanted to not play a conversion game, or just thought it would be fun, or if someone else targeted him then you lose an action which could put Sja even further behind.

Illwei - Your posts have all read village thus far, you have put in a decent bit of time and effort and generated useful discussion for the village. I don't know your play style that well, but I have disagreed with a few points that you have made in ways that makes me think you're a village. I don't know if that makes sense, but I tend to find Elims to be a bit less confrontational in thread at this point in the game.

|TJ| - Their posts just read as authentic to me? Not certain why, but it's a gut read at least. 

 

Realized I switched to 2nd person for your read, so apparently this entire post is just directed towards you and everyone else is just here to coincidentally read it all. 

[---]

11 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

Realized I switched to 2nd person for your read, so apparently this entire post is just directed towards you and everyone else is just here to coincidentally read it all. 

This is our thread now

I was swan in the Anon game recently, btw. No one seems to remember that so they can remember that when they coincidentally read this.

What do you think of kas' approach to me?

[Droughtbringer]

1 hour ago, Tani said:

Hey me too. Kasimir.

 

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Is it weird I kinda want to kill Kas again 

 

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Kasimir

I wish you and the other two would give a bit more info on why you're voting on/wanting to kill Kas (again) just so that we can discuss it. I have some reasons in my head that someone might vote for Kas, but this thread has talked about the posibility of him being Sja, but haven't given any other reasons. Are there others?

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

What do you think of kas' approach to me?

Care to clarify what you're asking? Sorry, don't quite know what you mean by his approach.

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This is our thread now

Ha! The rules say no PMs, but they said nothing about turning the thread into our own PM

[---]

My vote on kas is completely unfounded

Im just hitting people with sticks.

What do you think of Kas' progression on me, i mean. I know you dont know much about me but i was in an elim game with Kas as village more recent than LG 78, and so for him not to mention that is interesting to me. Adding that with his flip flop and blatant voting-me-becayse-i-voted-him.

The thread is always mine, i just let people borrow it

Right now im sharing it with you

[Droughtbringer]

Well, thank you for having me then.

Is there a reason that he would need to mention that he had been in a recent LG with you? 

As for his vote on you... a hypothetical scenario

If I was Sja then I would probably have started this cycle trying to push the Kas lynch. It keeps the lynch away from me, I have justified reasons for voting on them because no one knows what Kas is, and it feels like it has potential. So I'd say that there is a decent chance that Sja is one of the people wanting to lynch Kas. I wouldn't say a super large chance, but my guess would be ~25% chance that Sja is one of you three.
That being said, villagers also have a pretty decent chance of wanting to vote on Kas, because, again, we have no idea what Kas is. 

All that's to say that I feel like his vote on you is fair. 

[Mat]

I’m just paranoid, and am actually voting Tani

[Azmine_king]

2 hours ago, Droughtbringer said:

Village Reads:
Kas - I just don't feel like someone would pull that off of Sja, it seems like a stupid, risky play. I also don't think that Sja would have converted him as he was being lynched, and sure he likely was telling the truth, but if he was lying because he wanted to not play a conversion game, or just thought it would be fun, or if someone else targeted him then you lose an action which could put Sja even further behind.

So mostly TWTBW and WIFOM arguments, seems pretty weak to me.

 

Kasimir

Then we lynch Illwei tomorrow