Mid-Range Game 53: Unmade, Remade

[Ashbringer]

About 3.5 Hours until rollover!

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

2 Kasimir regrets signing up and is telling us he is a storm spren so we attack and kill him and he can relax in the spec doc.

Spoiler

I haven't gotten to throw this one in almost seven years, damn.

Edited to add:

33 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Depends. If he is Sja-anat, he 'll have 3 charges after surviving the execution. So he can either convert 3 spren  or 1 unmade + 1 spren. Depends on his preference if he likes numerical superiority or power. 

Personally I'm a five charges kind of guy. Friendship is sharing and caring and all that. And what could be better than spreading the light to my bros?

...Ugh. No. Ew. Get off my porch y'all >>

Edited September 22, 2021 by Kasimir

[Mat]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Your top trust seems to think it's a worry. I'm interested in why you disagree with him, then.

Just cause I trust TJ doesn't mean I gotta agree with everything he says; he's voting me  But I disagree because it's pointless imo to try to manipulate Sja's conversion or avoid any IKYKs whatsoever because Sja's gonna Sja and whatever they do is outside my control for the most part. There's nothing I can do that would make me feel better about the conversions and so I'm just not worrying about making anyone a 'better target'. 'Better target' is an opinion, anyway- and who knows how Sja views what that means?

[Kasimir]

34 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Just cause I trust TJ doesn't mean I gotta agree with everything he says; he's voting me  But I disagree because it's pointless imo to try to manipulate Sja's conversion or avoid any IKYKs whatsoever because Sja's gonna Sja and whatever they do is outside my control for the most part. There's nothing I can do that would make me feel better about the conversions and so I'm just not worrying about making anyone a 'better target'. 'Better target' is an opinion, anyway- and who knows how Sja views what that means?

I like it as a frame; you and Archer have a tendency to Village-read for mindmelding and it's nice to know whether that's in operation here, and it's an easy way to frame something I'd like discussed more.

12 hours ago, |TJ| said:

But yeah, screw it I'm going for stormspren!Kas/Sja!Kas gambit Kasimir

 

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I like it as a frame; you and Archer have a tendency to Village-read for mindmelding and it's nice to know whether that's in operation here, and it's an easy way to frame something I'd like discussed more.

That's true I suppose, but reverse isn't.

Also, thanks, I missed that vote :P.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That's true I suppose, but reverse isn't.

 

If A then B does not imply if B then A, certainly, unless it's a bi-conditional. Reverse isn't a valid inference, which is to say that it is not truth-guaranteed by logic. Doesn't say it can't be incidentally true which is why it's something I'd like to hear more on from you, but also really everyone. Cycle isn't fully over and I feel the need to stimulate discussion even with the lynch guaranteed  

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

If A then B does not imply if B then A, certainly, unless it's a bi-conditional. Reverse isn't a valid inference, which is to say that it is not truth-guaranteed by logic. Doesn't say it can't be incidentally true which is why it's something I'd like to hear more on from you, but also really everyone. Cycle isn't fully over and I feel the need to stimulate discussion even with the lynch guaranteed  

I'm not totally sure the point you want touched on tbh  Like, I do normally village read a mindmeld, but in this case I still am village reading TJ regardless of the fact that we didn't mindmeld at all. I trust him not directly for distrusting me, but because of the way he went about it. He totally thought he caught a slip  

So if A is mindmelding and B is village reading, then yes A leads to B but B doesn't mean A. I think that's about normal?

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm not totally sure the point you want touched on tbh  Like, I do normally village read a mindmeld, but in this case I still am village reading TJ regardless of the fact that we didn't mindmeld at all. I trust him not directly for distrusting me, but because of the way he went about it. He totally thought he caught a slip  

 

In general I just meant I wanted to hear more people talk about what they thought about TJ's thoughts and Sja, as I feel I was the only one who really engaged TJ and that was it. Framing it the way I did was useful because it targets you, lets me get some clarity on your views on TJ and whether mindmeld is at work here, and also it just is more constructive than going "Hi guys 5 marks short answer question - Discussion on TJ's anti-Sja suggestions." But also stuff like hearing how people would profile Sja or what they would look out for as potential Sja or convertee signs. That sort of thing. It's nice to ask this when the odds are pretty high it's coming from that player as a Villager - IMO, standard lynch discussion won't really cut it here as people don't quite behave the same way without lynch pressure, but this sort of thing can still be informative.

And I mean, it's telling too, isn't it? Players who are too off from how Sja is behaving - that's a datapoint. Players who are too on the money - that's a datapoint. We force Sja to blend in and talk casually about that. Just trying to eke more out of this C1, really.

Hearing more about why you trust TJ for that vote works too though  

[Ashbringer]

Vote Count:

• Kasimir (4): Matrim's Dice, Elkanah, |TJ|, Kasimir
• xinoehp512 (1): xinoehp512
• Tani (1): Araris Valerain
• Frozen Mint (1): Elandera

 

Just under an hour! Get your actions and Death Rattles in!

Edited September 22, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Quivil]

...Where's my Illwei vote, @Ashbringer?

[Ashbringer]

7 minutes ago, Tani said:

...Where's my Illwei vote, @Ashbringer?

Uhhh... right here!

 

Vote Count:

• Kasimir (4): Matrim's Dice, Elkanah, |TJ|, Kasimir
• xinoehp512 (1): xinoehp512
• Tani (1): Araris Valerain
• Frozen Mint (1): Elandera
• Illwei (1): Tani

[Ashbringer]

T-minus 5 4 minutes!

[Kasimir]

Final Thoughts:

• One thing a lot of players - Elk, myself (to some extent!) and TJ are missing is that there are two dimensions to this game. I do not know if this omission is just one of those things that happens, or if it is a sign that the player is Sja-anat benefiting from the chaos.
  
  Dimension 1: Finding Sja-Anat. Obviously, we want to find and lynch/kill Sja-anat. She's kill resistant/lynch resistant, but taking her out either wins us the game or significantly weakens the Elim team because of the charges consumed. What people who over-obsess about the conversion element keep forgetting is that Sja-anat starts evil and remains Evil. Players who are provably not Sja-anat are not - by extension - proven Village because of conversion, but narrowing on Sja-anat can help us narrow down on the Elim team by connections and also simply gives us one player who is decently findable by mechanical reasoning. This should not be downplayed. (Think LG79 and Malibu  Sorry Elan.) BAM is useful in this regard but so are players with role abilities. Be careful about who you claim to, but you should be narrowing down on your Sja-anat PoE.
  
  Dimension 2: Finding the Defectors. This is the more complicated part because players can swap allegiances. This is where it's important to keep suspicions and trusts fluid. Voting track record is not necessarily helpful because a player can be converted, but one thing people forget is that Sja can only either convert or kill. Sja's team can only kill or put in role actions, so we do have mechanics coming in again. Barring complications from redirects and extra kills on Even cycles thanks to Cher, we do have some defeasible way of telling if Sja has converted someone - if there was a kill, or we know that there was no complicating Village action, then Sja did not convert anyone. This can be a powerful indicator in the early game on Odd cycles - we force Sja to do nothing, or to kill (which is still not that great for us) which will tell us that we do not need to worry about the conversion element on that cycle. Conversely, the longer a player has been converted, the more they build a new track record of action with their new allegiance. This, too, can be monitored. I feel as though TJ has been overplaying the paranoia element here, and am slightly suspicious of him for it. (Yes, yes, last son of House Urbain, I know.)

Players need to keep in mind that the two dimensions are related, since Sja and the defectors know each other. But making progress towards identifying Sja is still progress. We mustn't conflate the two dimensions of the game with each other. Finding Sja can be informative in terms of how players react. It won't help us if the rest of Sja's team loves buses, but if you think about it, that's still all to the good. And as Elk pointed out, finding Sja is still strategically helpful because burning a lynch or kill or her still forces her to use up conversion charges - which weakens her team. Because executions and kills come before conversions on OoA, if we force her to burn charges, we can even nullify her conversions.

I don't expect Sja to waste a conversion this early, by the way. I expect Sja to go for a kill for several reasons, none of which I am going to elaborate on but which are easily surmisable. (I don't work for free, Sja - in fact, I'd rather you stay off my porch >>) So the point is to remind people that if/when we see a kill, keep in mind that we are not dealing with a conversion yet. Sja's conversions in a way are - to quote Gamma on LG6 Padan Fain - like a limited series of slaps the Village knows is coming. But we mustn't obssess too much on the fact the slaps will be coming. We do have a number of inferences we can draw. We should focus on what we can control, and stay wary and keep suspicions fluid.

[Note: Once Sja has her first conscript, that team can kill and convert at the same time, but until that happens, this is moot.]

• Park lynch plan:

I say a bit about it later on, but I was a bit blase about the potential costs to lynch discussion that such a plan would bring about. Lynches, to be sure, are more contentious in a conversion killer game. All the same, some suspicion to Mat and TJ and Araris and Elan and potentially Elk for not calling me on this - slight plus to Illwei for not really being sold on it. I note Tani was fine with lynching Araris which is a bit of a switch given her usual play preferences.

• Current reads:

Unlikely Sja: 

Spoiler

• Wyrm

Somehow I feel like you can never go wrong trusting this guy.

Null:

Spoiler

• Illwei

I still feel she's playing like she does as Kohga, but I also feel that Sja has no reason to want to go for that level of pushback. That being said, Illwei's backing off reminds me of what happened with Chantara, so null for Illwei, leaning positive. Was dubious of the park lynch plan, which is actually a slight point in her favour.

• Tani

Null leaning positive. I would expect Tani to behave differently if Sja. But this is a weak and defeasible point.

• Mat

Absolutely null. Some reactions seem a bit off, and Mat seems very willing to have firm positions on C1 (cf. TJ.) That's unusual, and could possibly be TMI. At the same time, I feel like Sja has no reason to frontline, e.g. pointing out the Araris train early on, so all in all, mixed views on Mat. I feel like Mat should have pushed more on the discussion point, especially with my suggestion that we just park the lynch on me, which is not a point in his favour.

• TJ

Null as well. I feel that TJ's strategic worries on conversion could be legit - this happened with Orlok in LG12, but could also be Sja trying to coax the Village into playing less openly. Ultimately, TJ doesn't really feel off but I've never played with Elim TJ, so I'm staying null on him for now. I feel like TJ should have pushed more on the discussion point, especially with my suggestion that we just park the lynch on me, which is not a point in his favour.

• Xino

Null, leaning negative, which is itself interesting. Xino for me falls in the sweet spot of active but not too on the frontlines, which is a good place for Sja to be, particularly if Cher is kill-happy. Peripheral vote too.

• Elk

Null leaning negative, similar analysis to Xino.

Sja Candidate:

Spoiler

• Araris

It's a gut thing. Araris's reactions don't seem right. I'm having difficulty articulating why I feel that way but they remind me of how he played MR52/53, the cards one. Peripheral voting but one way or another, Mr Invisible is a pretty lethal bet as Sja.

• TUO, Drought, Chantara, Az, Mint, Elan

Potential hiding spots for Sja, assuming Sja wants to keep a low profile. Mint promised to be more high activity, and it's worth looking in on Mint to see if she keeps up on that next cycle. I am always highly suspicious whenever Elan vanishes from mind.

That's about it from me.

Good luck, Team Village. Make this count for something.

[Ashbringer]

That's time! Rollover will hopefully be short.

[Ashbringer]

MR53 Cycle 2: Back Where We Began

"We were all in the area when it happened," said Karach. "Zeigest died, and the Investiture he emitted was not of Odium. I believe Sja-anat has gone rogue."

The Voidspren looked around nervously. Some of them, of course, weren't Voidspren. They were the Unmade, in a form that better suited them to anonymity. Avatars, Karach thought she'd overheard. Significantly weaker than their true form, but easier to protect and still much, much stronger than even the spren that formed the Regals. And much, much more dangerous if the Taker of Secrets sunk her teeth into them.

"We have to start somewhere," said a vaguely bear-shaped individual. "I say we look at Aizu. They want a porch."

"I doubt you could kill me if you wanted to," snapped Aizu. That elicited a gasp. For one thing, there were many Unmade here who could definitely kill most things. For another, Sja-anat had a propensity for surviving when she shouldn't. Then again, so did most Stormspren, at least for a while.

Aizu seemed to pick up on the tension. "Try. I dare you."

Suddenly a group of spren looked at each other, nodded, then rushed Aizu, drawing ethereal blades. Aizu simply stood there. Then there was a flash of power, and Aizu stood alone, with his three attackers on the ground next to him.

"Told you so."

---

Kasimir was executed, but survived!

No one was attacked!

You don't get any Death Rattles because no one is dead.

 

Final Vote Count!

• Kasimir (4): Matrim's Dice, Elkanah, |TJ|, Kasimir
• xinoehp512 (0): xinoehp512
• Tani (1): Araris Valerian
• Frozen Mint (1): Elandera
• Illwei (1): Tani

 

A bucketload of rule clarifications:

Spoiler

• The Defectors have a factional Night Kill; however, the player who submits the Night Kill cannot use their role ability the same turn. This includes Sja-anat being unable to Convert and Kill the same turn.
• Sja-anat can't turn her "last life" into a conversion charge. Also, Kills/Executions occur before Conversions, so it is possible for her to lose too many charges to Convert from surviving.
•  Kills are not differentiated in the write-up (Executions are, but not Elim Kill vs Chemo Kill vs Re-Shephir-Doubled-Elim Kill).
• Re-Shephir doesn't learn whether she duplicated an action or what she duplicated, just whether she successfully used her ability / whether she got roleblocked or not. (Because the only action she can't duplicate is Sja-anat's Conversion or a no action).
• In the same way, Re-Shephir's targets don't learn whether they had their action duplicated unless they would recieve results more than an action succeeding/failing. (ie Ba-Ado-Mishram, Moelach, and Nightspren
• If Re-Shephir is A, and B is using an action on C, and Re-Shephir uses her ability to make B also target D, Moelach/Nightspren could see A and B visit C and B visit D (ie Re-Shephir will not be seen targeting the duplicated-action-target, just the player who's action got duplicated).
• There are no secret roles/abilities/anything.
• I'm not enforcing "crypticness" on the Death Rattles, just explicit player and role names. 

 

I didn't set this up with an activity filter, but I've got inactives and pinch hitters so I should get on that. There is a 2-cycle inactivity filter - you must post at least once every 2 cycles or be killed/replaced. @Chantara, I don't believe you posted last cycle so please do so this one.

 

The cycle will end Friday, Sept. 24 at 12:00 PST.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice - a random voidspren
2. @xinoehp512
3. @The Unknown Order - Jimmith
4. @Elkanah - TBD (not to be confused with tbd)
5. @Araris Valerian - Winnie the Pooh
6. @|TJ|
7. @Frozen Mint - Emma
8. @Azmine_king
9. @Elandera
10. @Tani
11. @Droughtbringer
12. @Chantara - Veeda, or V
13. @Kasimir - Aizu
14. @Illwei

 

[Kasimir]

Interesting. No vote missing. @Ashbringer, can Nergaoul turn their vote into a no vote?

Smokespren or Nergaoul, most likely.

Also, get off my porch, bear-shaped thing! You heard me!

Edited September 22, 2021 by Kasimir

[Mat]

Kas' big wall post made me think he didn't have an extra life smh

Looks like we have our first convertee. Anyone willing to claim it?  

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Kas' big wall post made me think he didn't have an extra life smh

Gotcha

But no, I'd expected to be a kill target actually. I didn't do it just to troll I swear...

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

No one was attacked!

Survivals are written up, roleblocks are not. But Sja is not roleblockable so either Sja chose to do nothing (unlikely, but I could see a certain profile of player go for this - mindgames at no real cost due to both Village and Sja skipping a tempo, plus the possibility of camouflage with a Cher kill), or more likely, Sja went for her first convert, as Mat pointed out.

[Mat]

Just now, Kasimir said:

But no, I'd expected to be a kill target actually. I didn't do it just to troll I swear...

No, I expected one too. Tells us something about the player profile of Sja, maybe? Idk I'm bad at that kind of thing.

[Kasimir]

It's just one datapoint, so I would be careful not to put too much weight on it.

But I'd say for me: (-) Mat, (-) TJ - weaker credences for them because I read them as being a bit more conventional in Elim doctrine though I could be wrong. Normally I'd increase my Araris credence because Araris is capable of risky play, but Araris isn't really the type to surrender tempo to the Village once the Village has surrendered it, so I guess I'd split the difference and go zero delta. (+) Elan, (+) Illwei - they're the players to go for unconventional doctrines and Illwei especially has wanted to go unconventional for some time.

Not enough data on Chantara. The LG80 soothe suggests some risk tolerance, and the refusal to claim caution but also a slightly different strategic doctrine. Slight (+) for xino - I think xino has that unconventional edge to his play. Very slight for Elk but still a (+) because of the Elariel issue. Anyone I've missed - Drought, Mint etcetera, not enough info to really shift beliefs on. Slight (-) for Tani - I think Tani doesn't specifically go ham on mindgames, and that's what this strat would fundamentally be.

Elan.

[Araris Valerian]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Also, get off my porch, bear-shaped thing! You heard me!

I was just checking to see if you had any honey. Which you apparently don’t. It was an Honest Mistake, and I hope you’ll forgive me.

I’m still bothered by Tani, but not going to vote there, since it didn’t go anywhere last cycle. I’m currently thinking some sort of CC might be a good way to start things off, since Sja has plenty to gain by staying quiet and not much to lose. I’ll vote on Drought for now. 

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Araris isn't really the type to surrender tempo to the Village once the Village has surrendered it

Watch out village, the bus is coming for you!

[Kasimir]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I was just checking to see if you had any honey. Which you apparently don’t. It was an Honest Mistake, and I hope you’ll forgive me.

You seem moderately sincere but I am wary of strange bears bearing Greeks - sorry, I mean strange Greeks bearing...

I'm wary of strangers. Especially those with honeyed words. If it isn't a bother, I'd like you to go find your own porch please, without trying to Murder me this time.

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Watch out village, the bus is coming for you!

Real question: Is it a bear-shaped bus or a bus-shaped bear? 

[---]

Well looks like mat was converted

Obviously kas wasnt going to kill someone on when he himself is that much closer to death.

This goes for everyone playing sja-anat: they wouldnt want to kill someone N1. Day 1 is when people have the least amount of info and are the least of a threat. If you kill (semi-randomly) on n1, then you need to get a convert in sometime later, and the later you get in the game the more you want to be killing people because the more information they have. The fact that Mat and Kas expressed that they would kill instead is ??

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

If you kill (semi-randomly) on n1, then you need to get a convert in sometime later, and the later you get in the game the more you want to be killing people because the more information they have.

Except converting someone removes their information just as well as killing them does. I think I agree with Kas/Mat here, at least that strategically keeping your odds of getting randomly voted out low is a solid play. I personally would probably just convert Kas, but that would just be for fun.

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Well looks like mat was converted

You're next

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This goes for everyone playing sja-anat: they wouldnt want to kill someone N1. Day 1 is when people have the least amount of info and are the least of a threat. If you kill (semi-randomly) on n1, then you need to get a convert in sometime later, and the later you get in the game the more you want to be killing people because the more information they have. The fact that Mat and Kas expressed that they would kill instead is ??

I was thinking, like- the elims win at parity, and so Sja wants numbers. She has five charges, and since it takes two to convert another Unmade Sja wouldn't want to convert more than one of those, maybe not even any. If so, BAM or Chemorish or Re-Shephir probably would be the ones she wants and like would want to be careful in general. So if I were Sja I would have waited to try to spot spren softs or an Unmade soft that's useful to her more.

Or just go for Kas instantly ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

Edit:

46 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m still bothered by Tani, but not going to vote there, since it didn’t go anywhere last cycle.

Tani

(@Ashbringer)

Edited September 22, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Ninja'd by Araris