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4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Cheers, and also, thanks Ash :P 

I'm honestly wondering whether to lynch Az instead. Xino is a Soother, but even if Archer goes down to the Elim kill, as long as you, me, Tani vote, we'd beat xino in the voting, and on the assumption xino is Evil, he can't both Soothe and kill at the same time. But I feel this is activity bias at work again because you can't really seem as sus if you haven't been saying things ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And we're still back to the "who the hell else can it be" issue where the Elim team is concerned, so that's not really rational, just paranoia.

I mean, I don’t have a preference. You seemed to imply in your post from earlier that it was Az/[xino, me, Tani] with xino being far more likely, and going by that logic alone Az would be the best option, but from my POV it’s just Az/xino because of the Tani-being-pushed-by-elims clear so I’m good either way.

And as far as activity bias goes, it’s not like either of them have been super active :P.

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14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, I don’t have a preference. You seemed to imply in your post from earlier that it was Az/[xino, me, Tani] with xino being far more likely, and going by that logic alone Az would be the best option, but from my POV it’s just Az/xino because of the Tani-being-pushed-by-elims clear so I’m good either way.

And as far as activity bias goes, it’s not like either of them have been super active :P.

I'm just going to be honest here - I take players at face value a lot so if you're ever Elim against Village me you just have to tell me you're not Evil and you were just self-presing and I'm already questioning my decisions and reasoning in a paranoia spiral :P (See: current situation.)

IMO, the reasons incriminating Az are closely tied to the reasons incriminating xino, since that only works out if we look at the voting situation last cycle. Archer does have a point that xino didn't vote to help his team when his team could've used that extra vote, but it's not the first time Elims haven't come on before a hammer and maybe they didn't want to tip their hand, IDK.

For me, the Az issue really boils down to the fact he's voting with Elan on you for a reason that makes zero sense, and his action claim is watching Elan - which as you point out, makes zero sense for a Villager. Voting with Elan on you for an informational lynch at lylo is frankly inexcusable for a Villager, either way you slice it.

With xino, it's a bit of "who else could it be", plus the fact that the Soothe - whatever xino's reasons - materially ends up creating a great situation for the Elim team if we ignore Archer's votejacking (which, our postulated team might not have noticed.) We could postulate, as Archer initially did, that Elan was just playing mindgames though. (But then once again: who else could it be?) In that sense, I do find the Az evidence to be a bit stronger than xino and I'm okay with lynching either, but I can see a case for taking down an enemy Soother first. Xino quietly self-presing while being non-communicative and ignoring Village lylo panic mode also doesn't look good though, especially if you consider that Tani was far more helpful when facing the prospect of potential lynch.

Edited to add: Yeah, point about the activity. Probably why you told Archer last cycle we had been just kind of lynching among the actives...

Edited by Kasimir
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10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Bro, it's been lylo since last cycle. You kept tabs enough to Soothe but not to help out?

Correct

I'm sorry, I didn't really have time for anything else :( I wasn't even sure who was leading the vote, tbh

We really yeeted two evils and are still at lylo, huh

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And we're about to yeet another, and will still be at lylo.

Edit: Everyone good with the PMs? Anyone want adjustments?

Maybe I should make Kas not the center of the PM spider because if I do that then he dies and we're more stuck. :(

Edit 2: Updated PMs:

1st: Mat-Tani

2nd: Tani-Archer

3rd: Archer-Kas

4th: Kas-Mat

Edit 3: I remembered something and am redoing them again.

New updated PMs:

1st: Tani-Mat

2nd: Mat-Archer

3rd: Archer-Kas

4th: Kas-Tani

Edited by Tani
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33 minutes ago, Tani said:

And we're about to yeet another, and will still be at lylo.

Edit: Everyone good with the PMs? Anyone want adjustments?

Maybe I should make Kas not the center of the PM spider because if I do that then he dies and we're more stuck. :(

New updated PMs:

1st: Tani-Mat

2nd: Mat-Archer

3rd: Archer-Kas

4th: Kas-Tani

Tani, I'm good with your latest edit. I think it's wise to have a Mat-Archer PM, and also a Archer-me PM and a PM between you and someone else - New Updated has fairly good coverage. If the cycle doesn't go well for us but doesn't end, it's good to have a point of reference for your action!

Edited to add:

3 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

We really yeeted two evils and are still at lylo, huh

They win at parity. One mislynch and their kill goes through (we have no roleblocks or protects), and we lose. This is lylo.

I'm happy being talked onto xino for interests of consolidation, but my reasoning is that we have to lynch right or lose. We know the Elim kill won't misfire, and it's chancy as to whether Mat will make the duplication. If he doesn't and we mislynch, we lose. And if xino really is the last Elim, either Mat kills him with the duplicate this cycle, or he'll have to choose between a Soothe or making the kill. 

  • I've said this already but I'm going to repeat once just for the sake of it: I think Az comes off looking very badly off last cycle, due to both his starting a Mat train, and his target.
  • I agree with Archer that I am happy to exclude Archer and myself from the PoE on the basis of the swing to the Squirrel vote. This leaves us with: <Mat, Tani, xino.>
  • I agree as well that Tani was being pushed as the alt train; either way, I think C2 looks a bit good for Tani (due to how long she spent as the vote train), and I think the only reasonable way to make sense of the Az-TUO C3/C4 altercation and the C3 Squirrel-and-Elan-caused train on Az is as follows (remember, they tied Az with Drought!) : Az was converted C3, they noticed/guessed Az was Moelach due to Az asking TUO and Tani about night visits (a specific word!) and decided on either a lynch or a conversion. We lynched Drought so the conversion order went through on Az.
  • If C2 looks good for Tani, then by extension, it wasn't likely she was converted C1. But if Az was converted C3, then by extension, I'm committed to retaining a Village read on Tani. (If Tani wasn't converted C1, C2, and can't be converted C3, then she's still Village.)
  • Mat doesn't really look good for the xino vote. But we have two big questions about Mat:

    A. Did he lie about Re-Shepir? True, Mat was trying to save his own life C3, but it seems to me that since Mat is demonstrably not Sja, the pay-offs for lying about being Re-Shepir to avoid getting lynched do decrease. The Re-Shepir claim is on the face of it plausible.
    B. Was he converted as Re-Shepir? The issue with this question is we have to ask when he was converted. We now know that we started C4 5-4 (inferred due to Elim numbers and conversions.) If Mat was converted pre-C3, then we would have lost on C3; furthermore, since it seems likely Az was converted C3, this entails Mat cannot have been converted C3. So Mat is likely Village too.
  •  By extension, this commits me to Evil xino one way or another.

Because I am a bit more certain about Az than xino (IDK, if you guys are more certain about xino, let me know - I'm okay with consolidation on xino and probably too paranoid), I think Az is the safer defensive choice - at Lylo, lynch from high to low certainty.

[BEST CASE]

  • Az/xino team
  • We lynch Az, and Mat gets the Elim kill to hit xino
  • We win C5, at 3-0.

[MEH CASE #1]

  • Az/xino team
  • We lynch Az, and Mat fails to duplicate the Elim kill
  • We go into C5 3:1.
  • Assume failure to lynch correctly: 

...You know what. Ignore the thing about swapping to Az, I realised this doesn't matter. Because our real pool is between <xino, Mat>. Tani is formally in the pool but not significantly so. Unless we foresee getting more information about Mat next cycle, going into C5 just pushes the problem back one step. We could get more info about Tani in theory but with a teammate alive (Tani's would still be Az), it's unlikely Tani would put in the kill as failure to make PMs would be dead obvious. 

Dovie'andi se tovya sagain?

Edited to add 2: Az, xino ignore me I'm thinking aloud again.

Edited by Kasimir
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There's only one scenario in which the Re-Shepir argument doesn't work, and that's the one in which Mat is converted C3.

It borks what Az and Squirrel and Elan are doing C3 a little, so I've not put too much weight on it but let's just suppose for the sake of argument that Mat was converted C3.

If so, we lose if we lynch anyone not Az. Az is always Evil on this calculus.

Because newly-converted!Mat duplicates the Elim kill.

4-2 -> 1-2, game over.

If we take Az out, then:

4-2 -> 2-1

I'm starting to really think Az is a better defensive option here. Any takers?

Disclaimer: This conversation was inspired by a coin flip and also two things that bugged me: namely, that xino didn't add votes, and more importantly, that it seems very strange for an Elim team to go completely low-profile/low-activity in conversions and not go for a single control player at all.

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4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

There's only one scenario in which the Re-Shepir argument doesn't work, and that's the one in which Mat is converted C3.

It borks what Az and Squirrel and Elan are doing C3 a little, so I've not put too much weight on it but let's just suppose for the sake of argument that Mat was converted C3.

If so, we lose if we lynch anyone not Az. Az is always Evil on this calculus.

Because newly-converted!Mat duplicates the Elim kill.

4-2 -> 1-2, game over.

If we take Az out, then:

4-2 -> 2-1

I'm starting to really think Az is a better defensive option here. Any takers?

Disclaimer: This conversation was inspired by a coin flip and also two things that bugged me: namely, that xino didn't add votes, and more importantly, that it seems very strange for an Elim team to go completely low-profile/low-activity in conversions and not go for a single control player at all.

Azmine

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3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Tani, any chance you'll be on later? Because assuming @Matrim's Dice and @Archer are more for staying on xino, it's better to consolidate than just split like this.

And I have a known tendency to paranoid when left to my own devices >>

I'll probably be able to get on sometime in the last half hour before rollover.

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Just now, Kasimir said:

@Tani, any chance you'll be on later? Because assuming @Matrim's Dice and @Archer are more for staying on xino, it's better to consolidate than just split like this.

And I have a known tendency to paranoid when left to my own devices >>

I'm fine with either. I know the elim in Mat/xino :P But I'm also fine with voting wherever you do.

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4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm fine with either. I know the elim in Mat/xino :P But I'm also fine with voting wherever you do.

Fair, can't blame a guy for wanting to cover the other contingencies though >>

I'm considering, but I feel like the real issue is whether Archer can realistically swap in time, because if he's busy (possible), then we just have to go with xino. Anything else gifts our most probable Elim team a hammer opportunity on a silver platter and that's far worse.

Edited to add:

5 minutes ago, Tani said:

I'll probably be able to get on sometime in the last half hour before rollover.

Understood. Is there a chance you can't get on? Because if there is, then we should just stick with xino. Any plan that requires us to synch two players to avoid getting hammered is playing with fire at lylo.

Edited to add 2: I realise there is a bit of a "then why did you ask" element and I have to confess I checked Archer's login after I posted this and realise he was last on in my afternoon so it's possible he might not be on in time and then started to go, "Oh crap this was maybe unwise" :P 

Edited by Kasimir
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Just now, Tani said:

Could you hop to Az then, for Kas's reasoning?

I could, but like Kas said it's better to consolidate. I'd want to know if it was the train that actually will happen. I should be on at rollover to switch wherever is necessary.

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Ash as we start swapping votes trying to figure if we can consolidate in time:

Spoiler

765.jpg

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I could, but like Kas said it's better to consolidate. I'd want to know if it was the train that actually will happen. I should be on at rollover to switch wherever is necessary.

MTE. Essentially our problem in a nutshell.

Edited by Kasimir
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I'm working from the moderate assumption that out of the Tani, Archer, me, Mat pool, at least three of us are Village, but since Archer is my stronger non-me Village credence, I'm not willing to get on any train that Archer won't be on.

There's no point in counting on votes from suspected Elims because that just makes matters worse.

@Tani, going to suggest you do a cancel and swap back to xino. It's two hours to rollover, and last minute vote swaps are more problematic, so whenever you see this would be good.

For myself: just on the off-chance I didn't cancel anything:

Az
Anyone not xino

xino

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Cycle's over in about 13 minutes!

...

You guys want a vote count?

 

Edit: Actually the vote count did change, so why not.

  • xinoehp512 (5): Matrim's Dice, Azmine_king, Tani, Archer, Kasimir
  • Azmine_king (1): xinoehp512
Edited by Ashbringer
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MR53 Cycle 6: Unanimous-Ish

[Writeup to come approximately never]

 

xinoehp512 was executed! They were a Defector Smokespren!

  • "Fools you are, for following the god of Hatred. Weep! - for in hatred, you have destroyed yourselves."

Kasimir was killed! They were a Loyal Stormspren!

  • "Why do you take my Blade, Despot? The Night of Sorrows falls and your hands are stained to the elbow in a kinsman's blood. I see a city in flames, Kholinar, the jewel of Alethkar, broken asunder. I hear the wail of darkeyes, weeping for their slain. I see slaughter in the streets, and I weep.

    You have made of ambition a desolation. What is left, then, beyond the ash rains?

    You know where logic leads. Even though I be dead, the work is left unfinished. The Azure Dragon or the Blue Bird. They must be stopped."

 

Final Vote Count:

  • xinoehp512 (5): Matrim's Dice, Azmine_king, Tani, Archer, Kasimir
  • Azmine_king (1): xinoehp512

 

The cycle will end on Saturday, Oct. 2nd at 12:00 PM (Noon) PST

 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @Matrim's Dice - a random voidspren
  2. xinoehp512Defector Smokespren
  3. The Unknown Order - Jimmith - Loyal Chemoarish
  4. Elkanah - TBD (not to be confused with tbd) Loyal Ashertmarn
  5. Araris Valerian - Winnie the Pooh - Loyal Ba-Ado-Mishram
  6. |TJ| Loyal Yelig-Nar
  7. Frozen Mint - Emma - Squirrelwatcher - Sja-anat
  8. @Azmine_king
  9. Elandera - Defector Voidspren
  10. @Tani
  11. Droughtbringer - Loyal Voidspren
  12. Chantara - Veeda, or V - @Archer
  13. Kasimir - AizuLoyal Stormspren
  14. Illwei Loyal Nightspren

 

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