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1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Exeing in Tani/Az/xino today, right? I guess Archer in there too but I want to somewhat limit the PoE lol

Yeah, and you gotta Re-Shepir man.

I have a theory about what happened last cycle, but I'd like to hear from Archer first, and preferably xino as well. And Az. And basically everyone -.-

It is theoretically impossible for us to have lynched Sja in any other scenario than [CASE #1] and [CASE #3] so what we do know for sure is that there are still two Elims. We're 4-2, so it's still kind of lylo: if they successfully kill and we don't lynch correctly, they hit parity and we lose. So we have to do this right.

Leaving you alive is therefore bold: if you Re-Shepir right, they lose this cycle. Unless, of course, you're Evil.

@xinoehp512, if you're a Villager, it's all hands on deck time.

The one bright point is that lynching Sja entails that we don't have to worry about conversions. Any reads from last cycle will be stable, which means I am tempted to read everyone who voted for Squirrel and stayed there as Village, which...is just me and Archer, RIP :P 

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Good job subbing in to a high pressure role, @Squirrelwatcher.

That went well! Personally, I'd like to believe TUO followed my advice and shot themselves to avoid giving the elims a weapon. :P. 

I succeeded in making Squirrel self vote. That's obviously not reflected in the vote count. Huh. 

Elandera knew she was being killed. That's why she made that post that was just a vote on Mat. Yay mindgames. That tells us she had no way of blocking it.

Someone who knows the OOA, could there have been a conversion last cycle as Sja died? 

Obviously, Tani was being set up as the fall girl last cycle. Squirrel was going for them, at least. So she's clear. Kas and me are too, for voting Squirrel. 

It's not a great look that Mat went for Xino, but my previous analysis had me thinking if he's evil, it's a three man team. Which would leave two charges open for tanking. I'd believe Mint missed a conversion when she was busy, but I need to work the math there

I'm inclined to think Xino is clear since they showed up but didn't help the hammer. 

Basically I'm down to Az

 

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1 minute ago, Archer said:

Someone who knows the OOA, could there have been a conversion last cycle as Sja died? 

No. Kills and lynch come before conversions.

Did you send in an action? Were you roleblocked? Your Nergaoul vote is missing.

Edited to add: Ah sorry Archer, I speedread.

Alright. Then I think I know what happened.

Edited by Kasimir
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8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

No. Kills and lynch come before conversions.

Did you send in an action? Were you roleblocked? Your Nergaoul vote is missing.

Ash told me I succeeded in making Squirrel vote for Squirrel. 

Also, Az voted Mat, so they probably aren't e-e. And Mat was on Xino. Add in all the other trusts and it has to be lobe elim Mat. In which case he has two charges to tank. So Mat is cleared IMO

Edit: waaaait a minute. If it has to be two remaining elims and its not anyone but Az... that doesn't work either. 

Edited by Archer
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15 minutes ago, Archer said:

Obviously, Tani was being set up as the fall girl last cycle. Squirrel was going for them, at least. So she's clear. Kas and me are too, for voting Squirrel. 

Okay and I didn't think about this either .-. I should reread

So it is down to xino/Az, but Kas said the ratio is 4-2. So wouldn't that mean it's just xino/Az? 

Another reason I should reread; get a feel for the wagons and xino/Az's posts. Luckily I don't think either of them have a huge amount of content to ISO.

Edit: Does it have to be 4-2 for any reason? Like, say Mint missed a convert, that'd make it 5-1, right? And there's no way to know until we exe and the game either ends or it doesn't. 

Or I guess Kas was saying that Sja would have had 2 charges without another convert, but that would mean that multiple Unmade were converted, which obviously isn't true unless it's like Archer/Tani or any number of those left which just... doesn't make sense at all.

I guess Az is probably the safest vote here but I'll look through some things before I vote.

Edit2: Forgot Az is an Unmade. Lol. So that does make even more sense, theoretically. Well-

5 charges, Elan 4 charges, Az 2 charges... yeah Squirrel would have survived.

So we are 4-2. Good job Kas, I should have trusted your math :P.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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18 minutes ago, Archer said:

Ash told me I succeeded in making Squirrel vote for Squirrel. 

Also, Az voted Mat, so they probably aren't e-e. And Mat was on Xino. Add in all the other trusts and it has to be lobe elim Mat. In which case he has two charges to tank. So Mat is cleared IMO

Yeah, my bad, sorry, read too fast :P

Here's my theory on the votecount. Admittedly, I considered aggressively voting for you to see if I could lure some Elims, but I'm not a good liar and without a PM, I don't think I could have sold it without confusion.

Quote
  • Squirrelwatcher (3): The Unknown Order, Archer, Kasimir
  • xinoehp512 (1): Matrim's Dice, Squirrelwatcher
  • Matrim's Dice (2): Azmine_king, Elandera

[SCENARIO #A]:

Archer was roleblocked (he has denied this), or was lying about using his Nergaoul powers to shift a vote to the Squirrel train. This essentially requires that Archer be Evil. Furthermore, the Soother Soothed a vote off xino.

I don't put much stock in this - I floated Squirrel as a way of opening up discussion last cycle, and I'm not sure I could have sold it if Archer hadn't joined. Furthermore, if Archer were Elim, I don't think the team would've just let Squirrel die like this. They'd have more tactical options. I'm considering Archer de facto Village for the Squirrel vote.

[SCENARIO #B]:

Let's look at what happens if Archer doesn't Nergaoul:

Quote
  • Squirrelwatcher (2): The Unknown Order, Archer, Kasimir
  • xinoehp512 (2): Matrim's Dice, Squirrelwatcher
  • Matrim's Dice (2): Azmine_king, Elandera

Because the fact that Archer moved a vote from the xino train to the Squirrel train means that we should have seen:

Quote
  • Squirrelwatcher (4): The Unknown Order, Archer, Kasimir
  • xinoehp512 (1): Matrim's Dice, Squirrelwatcher
  • Matrim's Dice (2): Azmine_king, Elandera

But that's not what we see. We see 3-1. Which means that the Squirrel train was Soothed (-1) and Archer's shifted vote (+1) makes the net delta zero.

But Elan's vote makes much more sense if we understand it as operating with the understanding that the Soothe was coming on the Squirrel train. And in my view, the fact xino dipped but knew to Soothe the Squirrel train damns xino as another Elim.

Minimally, they're not E-E-E: Elan wasn't going to shift a vote for a 1/3 chance at killing them all. (Unlikely, in my view.) In fact, I don't even think they're V-V-E. Because Elan had one more option:

Quote
  • Squirrelwatcher (2): The Unknown Order, Archer, Kasimir
  • xinoehp512 (3): Matrim's Dice, Squirrelwatcher, Elan
  • Matrim's Dice (1): Azmine_king

Remember that Elan's move doesn't seem to take into account Archer's votejack. I'll say a bit more about it later. The point is that the Elim team could have decisively killed xino instead, to the best of their knowledge. The fact that they do not/did not seems to point to one thing:

Xino is Evil too.

They decided to go for a 1/3 chance at hitting a Villager. I suspect this also entails that Squirrel actually still had one charge. Because if Squirrel has no more charges, then there's no reason to favour losing Sja over losing a Soother. So our Elim team is likely to be: <Az, xino, Elan, Sja> - 1 + 1 + 2 = 4. Hence they tried to save Squirrel, because if Squirrel lived, they could still get off one last conversion.

Me.

(Alternatively, Squirrel could tank a night kill. But thanks for saving my life anyway guys. I really don't like being Evil :P )

21 minutes ago, Archer said:

It's not a great look that Mat went for Xino, but my previous analysis had me thinking if he's evil, it's a three man team. Which would leave two charges open for tanking. I'd believe Mint missed a conversion when she was busy, but I need to work the math there

 

Ash clarified that if Squirrel had two charges left, Squirrel would have survived. So our only options are that Squirrel had one or no charges. This gives us an 'Elan-Unmade-Unmade' team or 'Elan-Xino-Unmade' team only. There are some other permutations if someone is lying about their role but either way, same issue - points back to xino.

And I already flagged last cycle that Az's behaviour is odd. You don't go for an info lynch at lylo. If you have reason to be indifferent, then yes. But there was absolutely no reason to be indifferent between Mat and xino or Mat and Squirrel.

...And I see I've been ninjaed, good job guys :P 

Edited to add: If it's not apparent, I think Tani and Az are the only two options anyway if you want to look for a reason why the Elims could have failed to factor in that Archer said he was going to Nergaoul. (Mat would've caught it, IMO.) But Tani didn't vote, and given how important that could've been to her team, I'm not buying it. On top of everything else already said.

Edited by Kasimir
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33 minutes ago, Archer said:

Cool. I'll vote Az   Xino because getting rid of the vote soother seems like a good idea

Need to red it man :P 

Edited to add:

48 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So we are 4-2. Good job Kas, I should have trusted your math :P.

It's better when people cross-check >>

Otherwise we get a Malibu 2.0.

Edited by Kasimir
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1 hour ago, Archer said:

mobile is hard okay :P  

:P I'm sorry, I don't know any Sharder by the name of mobile is hard okay.

I'm just going to PMs everyone who's not probably evil this round. Anyone want a specific PM or do I randomize it? (speak within the hour or forever hold your peace I do NOT want to miss the PMs bit again whoops)

Xino

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4 minutes ago, Tani said:

:P I'm sorry, I don't know any Sharder by the name of mobile is hard okay.

I'm just going to PMs everyone who's not probably evil this round. Anyone want a specific PM or do I randomize it? (speak within the hour or forever hold your peace I do NOT want to miss the PMs bit again whoops)

Xino

I'm okay with a randomisation! 

@Archer — You may want to get a precautionary vote manip order in just in case.

@Matrim's Dice — On the bright side, you have a 50% chance of clutching the save and ending it for us this cycle :P

Edited to add: If we are right. I always have residual paranoia. But I think the best way to make sense of the C3 voting is that Squirrel converted Az C3.

Edited by Kasimir
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4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d ask you to flip your sacred coin for me except there’s no way to tell me what it rolled without putting it to the whole thread :P 

The terrible irony is that Elan told me to keep that coin because it was a dedicated Elim hunter... 

Edited to add: If we are looking at paranoid contingencies, it'd be Xino - > Az - > Tani for me. Fairly certain Tani is Village at this point and I wouldn't consider her a suspect before Xino and Az. After Tani, Mat, Archer, then myself.

Edited by Kasimir
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25 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Considering the pressure im already getting these results won't look that great, but I watched Elandera and saw just TUO on them.

 

Xino

…Yeah, why would you target Elan when we already know TUO was going to kill them?

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50 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Is this LyLo? I haven't been keeping up much.

Bro, it's been lylo since last cycle. You kept tabs enough to Soothe but not to help out?

Edited to add:

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

…Yeah, why would you target Elan when we already know TUO was going to kill them?

For that matter, why would you target anyone not likely to be an Elim NK target?

Edited by Kasimir
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1: Mat  2: Tani  3: Archer  4: Kas

First between Kas and Tani

Second between Kas and Archer

Third between Tani and Mat

Fourth between Mat and Kas

Wow, Kas, you get all the PMs! Have fun playing spider.

Edit:

For some reason I got this weird fear that Kas is pulling a [redacted] and playing us all and is secretly evil.

Edited by Tani
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20 minutes ago, Tani said:

For some reason I got this weird fear that Kas is pulling a [redacted] and playing us all and is secretly evil.

That would be quite the play and I wouldn’t even be sad if we lost tbh

I did not get a PM; is this your action for the current cycle?

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29 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I did not get a PM; is this your action for the current cycle?

Tani posted after rollover that she forgot to submit an action last cycle (RIP). So that has to be this cycle.

50 minutes ago, Tani said:

For some reason I got this weird fear that Kas is pulling a [redacted] and playing us all and is secretly evil.

Hah, fortunately I'm not that good at deepwolfing :P If I'm right about xino, and Sja really had one charge, I'm going to pray to the sacred coin for sparing me from the terror of conversion.

 


Mat, obviously the decision is up to you and you shouldn't say in thread to give Team Sja a harder time predicting you, and my saying it is going to start a clusterchull of IKYKs, but a thought I had is that if xino is going to try to Soothe again, then he can't submit a kill. :P 

In a way: that obviously exonerates Archer (and ironically, xino) of having sent in the Elim kill, if we didn't need that already. Tani being D-G had a good alibi, so has no reason to tell the thread she'd forgotten if she didn't really. That being said, Elan probably sent it in anyway.

Personal thoughts/speculation, since I always have just a bit of doubt (so I get the weird fear!) -

I like both Archer's and Mat's PoE because I'm always wary of basing it just on projection of what the Elim team might have done, since the fact they have chosen not to convert and to kill too many actives is not necessarily what I'd have expected. So it's nice to see people arrive in the same ballpark.

I think my fundamental issue is that even if we assume xino checked in enough to clock he was in trouble and quietly self-pres via vote manip but not to bother helping the Village or at least notifying us to go lynch someone else (which is itself sketchy), if it's not xino, it has to be one of <Mat, Tani> and I generally have better credences in both of you than I do in xino. We're not going to mention Az, I think Az is Evil either way, and I'm ruling myself and Archer out because of Squirrel.

Obviously due to OoA, no C4 conversion, but this does entail C1 -> C2 -> C3 conversions. I think Az being converted C3 explains why Archer got a Village read off him C3; it would also explain why Squirrel and Elan both voted on Az, with Drought voting alongside. It'd be weird for Squirrel to endanger a teammate, but it'd be nice to convert someone you aggressively distanced from. 

We don't have much of a voting record for xino so I don't think it substantially makes a difference whether you assume he was converted C1 or C2. Elan backing me against Illwei makes sense if you look at the fact the Elim kill avoided Illwei C2, so she was likely a C1 convert. Tani wasn't really present for C3 so no comment; and if anything, I'd expect Mat to be more of a target after the Re-Shepir claim.

Mat, I like your C3 Re-Shepir reasoning more now. If you're not Sja, there's little reason to fakeclaim Re-Shepir given the risk (though to be fair, you did claim to stop us from killing you.) Agreed about Tani being set up to be a mislynch target, and if you accept she forgot to send in actions, she materially helped Team Sja less than xino did. PoE really just narrows to xino/Az either way.

Edited to add: I just think aloud in the thread let me live >> I can't be rambling in my GM PM all the time.

Edited by Kasimir
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10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: I just think aloud in the thread let me live >> I can't be rambling in my GM PM all the time.

Pshh whatever, your ramblings are nice :P No one ever got upset about more thoughts in the thread.

Thanks for the VC Ash, I was wondering :P 

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2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Pshh whatever, your ramblings are nice :P No one ever got upset about more thoughts in the thread.

Thanks for the VC Ash, I was wondering :P 

Cheers, and also, thanks Ash :P 

I'm honestly wondering whether to lynch Az instead. Xino is a Soother, but even if Archer goes down to the Elim kill, as long as you, me, Tani vote, we'd beat xino in the voting, and on the assumption xino is Evil, he can't both Soothe and kill at the same time. But I feel this is activity bias at work again because you can't really seem as sus if you haven't been saying things ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And we're still back to the "who the hell else can it be" issue where the Elim team is concerned, so that's not really rational, just paranoia.

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