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18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I mean, valid question. Tani could be a convert instead. Question is how inactive Sja can really be.

If we have sufficient pressure on Tani for the moment, I'm going to go with xino as well. xino. Fair warning, if we are 5-4, any split or any unknown vote manipulation means we may have to be wary of a hammer. But that's a tomorrow problem.

:P The whole point of me voting xino was because Tani had two (three?) votes. I'd rather vote Tani over xino, both because of the difference in what happened with my duplicate and since yknow, xino hasn't actually done much in thread.

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

A. We can double down. This means Cher/ @The Unknown Order has to kill whoever is getting lynched. And then we hope this is enough to take Sja out since she'd require three charges to stay alive. 

I like this idea, but we'd need to be decently confident. It's worth killing Sja imo.

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

B. We can hedge our bets. This means Cher/ TUO has to kill our top convert suspect. And we lynch our top Sja suspect. Ideally, this kills Sja, but even if she survives, we should have killed most of her charges, enough that a convert won't go through. So our delta should be -1 (Sja kill), and -1 to Team Sja via Coinshot kill.

This is probably safer, though, especially if the Sja exe guess is virtually a RNG out of a pool of three/four.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

:P The whole point of me voting xino was because Tani had two votes. I'd rather vote Tani over xino, both because of the difference in what happened with my duplicate and since yknow, xino hasn't actually done much in thread.

I'm happy to add the pressure, see what shakes out, talk to more people, do the analysis (probably tomorrow as I'm OTing tonight but I really want to update the vote analysis with what we know of Araris and Drought and see what we get), and then finalise a vote :P

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I like this idea, but we'd need to be decently confident. It's worth killing Sja imo.

Even if she's out of convert charges?

Edit: @The Unknown Order - You might as well. It's a "have to get this right" thing because we are either at lylo or close to it so if there's any additional info the thread has, this should be used and discussed together. Besides, if they have a roleblocker, the roleblocker will always hit you unless you're targeting a Villager and if you are targeting a Villager, it's highly likely game over for us so it's no big difference :P 

Edited by Kasimir
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1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I guess if I'm assuming worst case then Sja probably doesn't have enough charges to survive an exe... Option B probably is better, yeah.

Less that, just thinking aloud that Sja's value to Team Evil in terms of being their converter kind of drops with charges, since her converts will still have repeatable abilities, but she won't. Of course, that does imply that she's a low value target for us too if she's low on charges, but I just like hitting Sja just in case no matter what, since as long as she has even a single charge she can convert someone. Well, some of us >> 

Besides, I still feel she's the most findable in theory, if we can get some cross-checks on the roleclaims. 

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27 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

( @Ashbringer, are you in a position to be able to answer if you would require us to play out a loss scenario (e.g. 5-4, net delta minus one even if Village lynches right)? I figure it may be a bit too sensitive but it's worth asking :P 

A what now

 

… oh. Yeah, I don’t think I can really answer that without hinting at too much. I will note that the “parity” rules don’t adjust for vote manip, though.

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35 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edit: @The Unknown Order - You might as well. It's a "have to get this right" thing because we are either at lylo or close to it so if there's any additional info the thread has, this should be used and discussed together. Besides, if they have a roleblocker, the roleblocker will always hit you unless you're targeting a Villager and if you are targeting a Villager, it's highly likely game over for us so it's no big difference

Well, I have a placeholder action on Elan, but really I'm open for suggestions. 

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AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGAAAAAAAAAAAAGHAGHAAAAAAAAAAAAAGHAGhjghjdghhh

(Yous're welcome. :))

 

Edit:

I'm the Black Fisher. I tried to make a PM between Drought and Illwei the night Illwei died.

Also that night, I successfully made a PM between Drought and Araris, and another between myself and Chantara. (now Archer.) I failed to make one between myself and TJ.

I haven't seen any PM requests so I've been mostly RNG-ing the ones I've made so far. (Mostly.)

 

Edit2:

TUO

If anyone wants me to reveal PMs I made for them, just ask. If anyone wants a PM, just ask.

Note: I didn't make any last cycle.

 

Edit3: TUO

Edited by Tani
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Tani

21 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Well, I have a placeholder action on Elan, but really I'm open for suggestions. 

Seems fine to me. I don't know if it'd be worth it to look at a kill that also could be Sja, but in a way this is better since it's more likely Sja has 1 charge than zero.

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20 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Well, I have a placeholder action on Elan, but really I'm open for suggestions. 

I had a good plan that involved threatening to shoot yourself to avoid conversion, but I think I better plan would be to solicit lots of suggestions but not commit to any one person. Either the villain will have to burn two charges on the off chance you target them, or Pat Sjack will spin the wheel of fortune and possibly be killed. 

5 minutes ago, Tani said:

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGAAAAAAAAAAAAGHAGHAAAAAAAAAAAAAGHAGhjghjdghhh

(Yous're welcome. :))

Thanks! 

Just now, Tani said:

I'm the Black Fisher. I tried to make a PM between Drought and Illwei the night Illwei died.

I successfully made a PM between Drought and Araris, and another between myself and Chantara. (now Archer.)

I failed to make one between myself and TJ.

 

I haven't seen any PM requests so I've been mostly RNG-ing the ones I've made so far. (Mostly.)

Black Fisher is who I'd like to be the lead actress of any Star Wars remakes. 

why didn't you use the one you made with Chantara/me? 

Does this leave Xino as the odd man out? That's helpful, if the claim isn't contested. 

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8 minutes ago, Archer said:

I had a good plan that involved threatening to shoot yourself to avoid conversion, but I think I better plan would be to solicit lots of suggestions but not commit to any one person. Either the villain will have to burn two charges on the off chance you target them, or Pat Sjack will spin the wheel of fortune and possibly be killed. 

This doesn't matter. Sja's charges are burnt involuntarily and kills precede conversion. There's nothing they can do to stop TUO besides a roleblock, though I suppose the chance that he could be talked into slaying a Villager might encourage them to hold off on the roleblock button.

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

Does this leave Xino as the odd man out? That's helpful, if the claim isn't contested. 

Not really. We don't know Elan, we still have the unknown Soother (guessed to be xino, but) - and most importantly, Tani's claims don't account for all known PMs. Which means we're probably going to get an Envoyspren claim out of Elan. Tani can't account for:

  • Elan's claimed C1 PM with TUO ( @The Unknown Order, can you confirm this?)
  • My C1 PM with TJ

In addition, I'd like to get solid cycle timelines down. Which cycle did you open which PM, @Tani?

@Ashbringer Does an Envoyspren/D-G get a PM with just themselves and you in it if R-S makes them self-target?

Edited to add: In fact, the unaccounted for PMs are problematic because they require two Envoyspren exist, if D-G is a unique role.

Edited by Kasimir
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14 minutes ago, Tani said:

I tried for eight, made six, and I think five are still alive. I made the you/TJ PM.

I ask 'cause if this can be corroborated and we have a cycle timeline of which was when, this pretty much exonerates you from being Sja and sending a kill in. Mat's C3 scan on you does imply that you didn't send in a kill C3 at the very least.

6 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Yes.

Thanks!

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32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ashbringer Does an Envoyspren/D-G get a PM with just themselves and you in it if R-S makes them self-target?

The PM abilities are a bit weird... I ruled that if that happened, a PM would be created between one of the players that the Envoyspren/Dai-Gonarthis chose to gain a PM (randomly) and the player Re-Shephir duplicated them to.

... that will probably not be how it works in the rerun.

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AGH! Why is there so much STUFF???

On 9/26/2021 at 4:42 PM, Kasimir said:

Getting this off my brain so I can sleep in peace -.-

1.

Reads to me like he's saying he had a PM with TUO. If we can get confirmation of which cycle it was created, that'd be good.

No. Illwei. Created after C2.

On 9/26/2021 at 4:42 PM, Kasimir said:

2. [WORST CASE SCENARIO]:

C1: Convert -1 = 4
C2: Convert - 1 = 3
C3: Convert -1 = 2

On this assumption, Sja now has three converts, with an effective team size of 4. If so, we are now at lylo. A mislynch or a successful kill from Sja will put us at parity, and we lose at parity. If there's a break glass and claim time, I suggest it is now. (If someone else has info about how we can know we're not at the worst case scenario, appreciate it - then we can ignore what I'm saying.)

[BEST CASE SCENARIO]:

Sja has two converts. (Assume that the Tani cycle had no conversions, either because of Sja making the kill, or because Cher killed Illwei, or that Sja's charges are insufficient  because Sja hit three Unmade.)

Why do I have a cycle named after me?

On 9/26/2021 at 4:49 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

PMs are only created through Di-Gonarthis (I know I butchered the spelling) so that can’t happen.

Confusion. @Matrim's Dice?

On 9/26/2021 at 4:49 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Again I haven’t been in any PMs so idk how many there have been.

Confirmation. Six, five running.

On 9/26/2021 at 4:49 PM, The Unknown Order said:

I don't know what that Rattle is about because I didn't have a PM with Drought. 

Confirmation.

22 hours ago, Kasimir said:

1. @Azmine_king, what did you see on the other cycles? 

2. @Ashbringer — Suppose Tani is Nergaoul and removes Araris's vote on her and shifts it to Illwei. What would Moelach see if Moelach watches Illwei? 

3. Painkillers are best invention. That and caffeine. 

4. Assume for the moment that Mat, Az, and TUO are truthful. Then, out of <Archer, Elan, Squirrel, Tani, xino>, we have either: <Nergaoul, smokespren, DG, Sja> or we have <Nerg, smokespren, envoyspren, envoyspren, Sja>

... Dai-Gonarthis?

22 hours ago, Kasimir said:

5. If we're in [WORST CASE] as I modelled earlier, we actually can't lynch Sja today. Well, we can and should but it's complicated. We lynch Sja and she survives and is down two charges, the night kill goes through. 4-4. Game over. This is only a good scenario if we have a good convert candidate, whom Cher should kill. Then we lynch Sja and kill the convert and go to 4-3 next cycle with a weakened Sja who can't convert. If we are in [BEST CASE], then lynching Sja means she may not survive, depending on charges remaining. Either way, Cher has to shoot well. If Cher is Village. 

Edited to add #2: I feel like the two envoyspren scenario is more likely. It's a bit weird for there to be so few PMs if D-G has been active. 

I don't do Shard things on Sunday, and Saturday was full of things like a temple trip and house cleaning.

17 hours ago, Azmine_king said:

And no, I do not have a PM with anyone

Confirmation.

16 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I feel like at this point there has to be a converted Unmade just based on probability, if that makes sense. A pool of Archer/Az/TUO isn’t one I’m super unhappy with but I also don’t love the assumption because it’s just an assumption. I feel like Archer had no reason to claim, which I instinctively suspect, and I’m not a fan of how he came out shading me immediately either. TUO, if they’re evil and we don’t kill them, we definitely lose, and I touched on earlier that Az not making an action is a bit convenient and they fit the low-profile.

Or I guess they have no reason to lie about C1 since they would have been village then, though it could be Sja!Az who converted the real Moelach.

I wouldn’t be against any of those three for those reasons, and I think Tani is an alright kill as well. I’m curious what their role is since they were tracked onto Illwei but then didn’t do anything last night, which my tinfoil brain makes her be Chemorach which only works if Az and TUO are both evil I think and is a bad theory that doesn’t hold up lol

I still don't do Shard things on Sunday.

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Just now, Ashbringer said:

The PM abilities are a bit weird... I ruled that if that happened, a PM would be created between one of the players that the Envoyspren/Dai-Gonarthis chose to gain a PM (randomly) and the player Re-Shephir duplicated them to.

... that will probably not be how it works in the rerun.

Okay, but...uh, alright, here's the thing. Hypothetical for you:

Kas is Dai-Gonarthis. He creates a PM between himself and Wyrm. Suppose further this is the only PM D-G creates.

Ren is Re-Shepir, and Ren causes Kas to self-target. Since R-S only duplicates, what would the result of the self-target be?

I read your clarification as saying in the case Kas creates two PMs, one between himself and Wyrm, and one between Gamma and Maili, then the result would be you RNG in the <Kas, Wyrm, Gamma, Maili> pool for who gets a free PM with Kas courtesy of R-S. Would that be correct? What happens in the single PM case though?

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... So me claiming Dai-Gonarthis just means I'm dead now?

Humph.

Ok, in that case, here's all the PM information.

C1:

First between Kas and TJ (because they said they can read each other with a PM) (Went through)

Second between me and xino (me --> RNG because I wanted a PM.) (Went through)

Third between TUO and Elan (RNG all because having four random ones is better than having fewer more specific ones.) (Went through)

Fourth between Elk and Mint (RNG all, same reason) (Went through)

C2:

First between me and TJ (because I wanted TJ's read on Kas) (Failed)

Second between me and Chantara/Archer (This was either me-->RNG or RNG all. I don't remember.) (Went through)

Third between Araris and Drought (Because I wanted an experienced player to read Araris) (went through)

Fourth between Drought and Illwei (Because they talked about making the thread their PM so I gave them one) (Failed)

C3:

None. Life stuff like Saturday-house-cleaning-and-excessive-sneezing and Sunday.

C4:

If nobody requests PMs, Imma just RNG this again so PLEASE ASK and ping me when you do.

 

There. Now everybody knows everything and nothing gets lost when I die.

@Kasimir you asked for this?

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12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, but...uh, alright, here's the thing. Hypothetical for you:

Kas is Dai-Gonarthis. He creates a PM between himself and Wyrm. Suppose further this is the only PM D-G creates.

Ren is Re-Shepir, and Ren causes Kas to self-target. Since R-S only duplicates, what would the result of the self-target be?

I read your clarification as saying in the case Kas creates two PMs, one between himself and Wyrm, and one between Gamma and Maili, then the result would be you RNG in the <Kas, Wyrm, Gamma, Maili> pool for who gets a free PM with Kas courtesy of R-S. Would that be correct? What happens in the single PM case though?

In that case, Re-Shephir just wouldn't change anything (although they'd still recieve the "you successfully didn't get roleblocked" message). I won't create a one player PM. That would just feel mean.

But yeah, that's what I meant. 

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Just now, Ashbringer said:

In that case, Re-Shephir just wouldn't change anything (although they'd still recieve the "you successfully didn't get roleblocked" message). I won't create a one player PM. That would just feel mean.

But yeah, that's what I meant. 

(You should create one-player PMs in that case. It'd be hilarious. :))

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1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

A what now

 

… oh. Yeah, I don’t think I can really answer that without hinting at too much. I will note that the “parity” rules don’t adjust for vote manip, though.

Reasonable, thanks :P

Okay, I'm going to swap the order around because I'd preferably like to get a bit more discussion alongside just role/claim reasoning, so I'll try to shift my scheduling around and do some vote analysis first and then leave it there and go back to work.

A. C1 voting revisited:

Spoiler

Kas (4): Araris<1>, Kas<2>, Kas<5>, Mat<5>, TJ<2>, Elk
Tani (1): Araris<2>
Squirrel (1): Elan<1>
Illwei (1): Kas<3>, Tani<2>
xino (1): xino<2>
Araris (0): Kas<1>, xino<1>, Tani<1>
Mat (0): Mat<1>, TJ<1>
Elan (0): Mat<2>
TJ (0): Mat<3>
TUO (0): Kas<4>, Mat<4>

Again, I'm just going to denote myself - and obviously for those Villagers, substitute yourself in.

The issue of course is that looking at trains is not especially helpful: C1, almost every train except the one Sja votes on (if at all) will be Villager-dominated. I've highlighted the ones that are interesting: on the assumption Sja participated D1, we're looking at just three possible trains: the vote on me (which really started happening when Mat added his vote to mine), xino's vote on xino (which could be xino planning to prove his role by self-voting and Soothing, but all the same), and Tani's vote on Illwei.

The alternative is that Sja didn't, in which case our formal pool includes: <Squirrel, Archer, Az, TUO.>

I asterisk Archer, Az, and TUO: TUO fakeclaiming Moelach and getting called out by Az seems to be genuine on both their parts. It could be a team ploy, but I don't ascribe high probability to that. It also seems weird that in a game with a known Cher, Sja TUO would lie about being Moelach, get caught, and then go for round two by lying about being Cher. We don't have counterclaims for Nergaoul at the moment, so I will take the three claims are being initially plausible. (Again, the escape hatch is that actual Cher/Moelach et al is on the same team. The issue with that is that there is only a point in protecting Sja if Sja still has charges left, and for Sja to still have charges and one of the Unmade, we are left with three charges and two cycles, requiring Sja to have failed conversion on one cycle (the only candidate is C2, meaning we must postulate Sja went for Illwei and failed), or requiring Sja to have gone for two non-Unmade. I feel like there is no real value in faking us out about a single charge Sja because a Cher klill would deplete that charge anyway. Unless, of course, Cher is not on our team.)

Reserve judgement on Squirrel's claim: it's plausible to me, because Village would definitely need spare scans in a conversion game with a Cher kill as well as conversions and Elim kills flying around, but at the same time, given we know Unmade roles are unique but not voidspren ones (evidenced by being Nightspren), well, yeah.

B. C2 voting revisited:

Spoiler

Elan (1): Kas<1>, Kas<7>, Elk<3>, Mat<4>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (2): Kas<3>, Illwei<2>, Tani<2>, Mat<2>, Kas<6>
Illwei (2): Kas<2>, Elan, Kas<4>, Elk<1>, Elk<4>
Tani (1): Mat<1>, Araris<2>, Mat<3>
Kas (0): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az<1>
Mat (1): Drought, Kas<5>
Elk (4): TJ, Chantara, Illwei<3>, Kas<8>
xino (0): Elk<2>

The one thing that this does make clear for us now is that Araris was Village, meaning that at various points in the cycle, we had several tie variants operating:

  • Kas-Tani: Broken by Az as the third vote on me
  • Kas-Tani-Illwei: I vote on Illwei, and Elan stacks a second vote on. Not quite a tie but close. We now know Illwei is Village. It looks interesting if we think Tani is Evil, or Elan is.
  • Araris-Tani: I pull off Illwei and onto Araris. Az pulls off me, as Chantara shows up. The Tani votes remain stable - this could be interesting because if C2 Tani is Evil, we should expect to see more side-train activity as her teammate tries to coax people onto another train.
  • Illwei-Tani: Largely my fault, as I swap off Araris to Illwei.
  • Araris-Mat-Tani: Tani unvotes and goes to Araris, Drought inaugurates a Mat train, which I join on, making it a three-way. What's interesting is that we don't know about Mat and Tani, obviously, but...
  • Araris-Mat-Illwei-Tani: Courtesy of Elk, who is known to be Village. Granted, there are just two people on Team Sja, but that's a lot of Village activity on the ties.
  • Araris-Tani: I go from Mat to Araris due to my faulty Mat = D-G theory.
  • Elan-Araris-Tani: I vote on Elan and unvote Araris while trying to think. Elk likes this and goes onto Elan. Mat breaks this by moving off Araris and onto Elan.
  • Elk-Elan-Illwei: Chantara seconds the Elk vote. Discrepancy suggests trying to break the Araris-Mat-Illwei-Tani tie, or trying to introduce yet another option for an RNGesused tie. Elk decides to go from Elan to Illwei - but we now know Elk and Illwei are both Village. End cycle swing comes from Illwei and me breaking the tie by slamming onto Elk.

Here's the thing I guess. Suppose we are correct in theorising that Sja is Tani. Where is the movement to bait votes off Tani? A mislynch would have burned charges and looked worse since I had claimed stormspren the cycle before. We know there are other trains: inaugurated by Drought and by TJ and Elk, but that's all Village. I do start an Elan train, while I'm trying to work out where to go since Araris's BAM mic drop.

This is making me a bit more inclined to Village-read C2 Tani: Mat left Tani on the lam enough I can't see them being teammates, and most of the other swings were made by known Villagers so I feel as though the natural conclusion is that the Elims weren't under serious threat. 

We know Elan can't be Sja so even if Elan was a convert, I have the sense that the late cycle swing is more Village than anything. 2/3 odds are not awful, and Sja might not want to expose herself being too obvious about it. There's the Chantara vote, but the Chantara vote does match with Nergaoul, and the only other real possibility for Nergaoul I can see is Elan, and Elan hasn't counterclaimed. I guess there's a paranoid Sja-Chantara and Nergaoul-Elan team here, which would explain this, but then Chantara posted five minutes after the BAM claim, meaning she could see it.

Now, to be sure, the alternative is possible: there was no need for Elim activity because the Village just backed off on our own. This was true of Archer-Araris-TUO in MR52, so maybe I shouldn't weight the "where are the Elims?" question too strongly.

This pushes me a little towards <xino, Squirrel> at this juncture.

C. C3 voting revisited:

Spoiler

Tani (0): Kas<1>
Mat (0): Araris<1>, Drought<1>
Drought (3): Kas<2>, Kas<4>, Araris<2>, Mat<2>
Az (3): Elan, Squirrel, Drought<3>
TUO (1): Kas<3>, Mat<1>, Az, Drought<2>

This was surprisingly easy to track :P

Az's remaining vote on TUO is easily explained if Az saw TUO's claim last cycle so left it on. @Azmine_kingany reason you went for TUO over Tani when you saw both visit Illwei?

The Drought-Az trains are competitive, we tied, no vote-change happened. This is consistent with the assumption xino was our Soother, and Chantara was too busy to get involved, so no votejacks occurred. 

I feel a bit weird about Squirrel's @ing Drought that late in the cycle. I feel like an earlier response might have been better and I'm curious about what exactly set @Squirrelwatcher off about Az. Our two main hypotheses are that Team Sja either didn't get involved, or they just snuck in. I see the Drought train as being majority-Village, so the hypothesis that they bundled onto Az won't make sense in this context. So the main possibilities as I see them:

  • Az-Drought is V/V: they could have just sort of gotten on the trains to appear engaged enough. Or we could find them on side-trains. I'm still really seeing the <Mat, Elan, Squirrel, Az> pool; Chantara was too busy so that doesn't say much, and Tani doesn't Shard on Sundays, which, fair enough.
  • Az-Drought is V/E: but then where are the Elims? Drought has a late self-pres, and Squirrel invites Drought to cause chaos, which doesn't really make sense for a Squirrel-Az team. Mat going onto Drought could be an Elim protecting a teammate by securing a margin, but then in context, we're looking at a 2-1-1 vote split at that time so I feel meh about it. 

D. This is really putting me in some confusion. In general, what Tani is saying checks out in that I feel if she's committed to confirming PM claims and the timeline, then yeah. We know she can't be a C1 or C2 convert - Sja's convert killed off the bat, and Tani not killing would defeat the purpose. 

Of xino and Elan, I'd have thought Elan is the more likely Sja candidate: it's weird to Soothe someone else's vote to prove your role, because you don't always know if the vote will remain stable, and then there goes your self-proving attempt. But contextually, we know Elan cannot be Sja: Araris confirmed this, and Araris had no reason to lie in that context. (I know Villagers sometimes lie but considering he was a Village scanner role, that's kind of eh.)

Which means that we have to go and look at claims in terms of overall shakiness.

STRONG:

Spoiler

Kas - survived lynch, scanned not-Sja C1 by Araris
Elan - scanned not-Sja C2 by Araris

MODERATE:

[=not impossible for there to be an issue, but requires a teammate who is actually the role and lying/covering up]

Spoiler

Tani - timeline and PM claims check out, plus we know D-G or envoyforms must exist.
Az - was confident enough to challenge TUO on being Moelach, Death Rattles exist
TUO - fakeclaimed Moelach but went to Cher on being challenged; Cher killed C2, and for TUO to be Sja and lying, he would likely have to have converted both Moelach and Cher, in which case, gg.
Archer - claimed Nergaoul, and we know Nergaoul exists. Theoretically possible for Nergaoul to be someone else, but fits Chantara's pattern, with the only other candidate being @Elandera, who has not counterclaimed.

WEAK:

Spoiler

Mat - claimed Re-Shepir. No evidence of Re-Shepir in this game, but not impossible.
Squirrel - claimed Nightspren. Not unlikely we would have extra scanner roles in a game like this, and claims don't disagree, but all the same.
xino - ?

If we're looking for Sja, my immediate thought is that our weak points are Squirrel, xino, Mat, and Elan, with a maybe on Archer. The fact we have not seen another Soothe since might be inactivity, or might be the Soother becoming the dedicated killer. I would rank Archer's claim as the weakest of all the MODERATES, but all the same. Xino has been too low activity to be Nergaoul. So it's within the <Squirrel, xino, Mat> band for me for Sja.

I'm okay with the current pressure on xino but I want to look at Squirrel as well.

Mat claiming Tani was Re-Shepired is a bit of a bold claim if he didn't know what Tani was. Possible he converted Tani at some stage, I guess, but then he's connecting himself and Tani by claiming to have targeted her so I'm not sure about that.

I got ninja-ed countless times while writing this, RIP >>

And thanks, @Tani - I don't think you are immediate danger of getting lynched as the Sja candidate, anyway. And I referred to it as the Tani cycle because it's the one you spent a decent chunk getting voted on, and someone votejacked you (Archer.)

Temple trip ftw :P

Alright, I need to go pack it up and go back to OTing, but hopefully I've got stuff people can bounce off and discuss more.

Edited to add: In case I'm confusing any Mormons here (always a risk on Sanderson forums), I'm speaking from a Daoist perspective here.

Edited by Kasimir
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1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

If we're looking for Sja, my immediate thought is that our weak points are Squirrel, xino, Mat, and Elan, with a maybe on Archer. The fact we have not seen another Soothe since might be inactivity, or might be the Soother becoming the dedicated killer. I would rank Archer's claim as the weakest of all the MODERATES, but all the same. Xino has been too low activity to be Nergaoul. So it's within the <Squirrel, xino, Mat> band for me for Sja.

I'm okay with the current pressure on xino but I want to look at Squirrel as well.

I like this list minus the fact that I’m in it :P I don’t think that lowers the credibility of it though. I was lowkey kinda shocked I was in the weak category until I thought about it for a second :P.

I’m good on xino; I like Squirrel more.

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33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I like this list minus the fact that I’m in it :P I don’t think that lowers the credibility of it though. I was lowkey kinda shocked I was in the weak category until I thought about it for a second :P.

I’m good on xino; I like Squirrel more.

To be fair, it would be weird to not have R-S because Cher is in and I see R-S and Cher as complementary. You fakeclaiming R-S would also be a risk as you wouldn't know if R-S would call you on it... Gneorndin ;)

It's balanced by the issue that we've seen nothing that definitively says R-S has to exist, probably out of sheer bad luck on your part. In that sense, I consider Nergaoul a more daring claim because Archer must know real Nergaoul would call him out, unless, of course, teammates. But really, the only reason to go for a swap play is to hide Sja. But I digress. 

To me, it's like Squirrel's claim—immediately plausible, and nothing contradicts it, but also can be explained by other means. I'd probably rank it a bit higher than Squirrel's claim because you claimed before Tani showed up, though it's inferrable from activity potentially and there's always the teammate paranoia angle. 

Why Squirrel over xino? 

I feel like xino or Elan would be my convert candidates anyway. Slight preference for Elan, so I agree with TUO's choice of target. 

If everyone is currently truthful then it looks like we have all the Nine. Which would make sense but at the same time, as with the distro symmetry issue, I prefer to try to avoid leaning too much into it. I blame Wyrm ruining my symmetry expectations in LG7. I was so dead certain Jain had to be a Seeker too—the symmetry would have been beautiful :/

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48 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why Squirrel over xino? 

I’ve liked Squirrel’s posting, as opposed to a nothing from xino.

49 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If everyone is currently truthful then it looks like we have all the Nine.

Ashertmarn?

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