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17 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

Let me know if I'm getting this right

TUO is chemorash fake claiming moelach

Az is moelach who saw tuo and tani

And tani is...?

Evil.

Maybe.

Edit: Wait, probably not because that means she didn't do the kill, but maybe converted last night.

Edited by The Unknown Order
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1. @Azmine_king, what did you see on the other cycles? 

2. @Ashbringer — Suppose Tani is Nergaoul and removes Araris's vote on her and shifts it to Illwei. What would Moelach see if Moelach watches Illwei? 

3. Painkillers are best invention. That and caffeine. 

4. Assume for the moment that Mat, Az, and TUO are truthful. Then, out of <Archer, Elan, Squirrel, Tani, xino>, we have either: <Nergaoul, smokespren, DG, Sja> or we have <Nerg, smokespren, envoyspren, envoyspren, Sja>

Tani and I/TJ both received PMs in the same cycle. Drought's PM might be with Az—Az, can you confirm if so and which cycle? 

5. If we're in [WORST CASE] as I modelled earlier, we actually can't lynch Sja today. Well, we can and should but it's complicated. We lynch Sja and she survives and is down two charges, the night kill goes through. 4-4. Game over. This is only a good scenario if we have a good convert candidate, whom Cher should kill. Then we lynch Sja and kill the convert and go to 4-3 next cycle with a weakened Sja who can't convert. If we are in [BEST CASE], then lynching Sja means she may not survive, depending on charges remaining. Either way, Cher has to shoot well. If Cher is Village. 

Edited to add #2: I feel like the two envoyspren scenario is more likely. It's a bit weird for there to be so few PMs if D-G has been active. 

Edited by Kasimir
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17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ashbringer — Suppose Tani is Nergaoul and removes Araris's vote on her and shifts it to Illwei. What would Moelach see if Moelach watches Illwei? 

In this hypothetical scenario, Moelach wouldn't see Nergaoul visit Illwei. They'd need to be watching Araris. Nergaoul visits the player whose vote they're moving, not the player the vote's being moved to. (Or the player that the vote was originally on.)

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Veeda had been converted. She could feel her sense of purpose fading. She had tried to help, used her powers to shift the debate in what she thought had been the right direction, but it was too late. 

"Oh no," she whispered. "I'm becoming one of them. Odium help me. Wait-" 

V checked her reflection in the mirror. She didn't look any different than before. "Huh. Thought I'd appear more deranged. Maaaaaybe I misdiagnosed what type of conversion I've undergone."

"Well duh," said the voice in her head. Not her normal voice. This one was more resonant. "You haven't flipped sides. You've just gone crazy!" 

She pondered that. It made sense. "Cool, cool." 

V did a backflip, because she could. 

"Weeeeee." 

"Weeeeeeeeee. Let's go kill some people." 

*

In the interests of mechanically narrowing down who Sja is, I believe the best course of action here is to reveal that I am Nergaoul the vote manip. I moved Araris' vote to Illwei C2. Can someone tell me who hasn't roleclaimed yet? I'll find out eventually, but I suspect Kas can tell me faster. :P.

Also, I received a PM with Tani that is still active. Apparently neither of us used it, so, village points for that I guess? Unopportunistic behaviour. I'm unsure what cycle it was made in.

Village points to TUO and Az too, because of that convo. For e!Az it had bad optics because he might get exed for forcing a villager to give out info via lying. And TUO came up with their true roleclaim quickly enough that I believe its genuine and therefore they aren't Sja.

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That’s a completely unfair accusation; I ‘shouldn’t’ anything at this point in the game. I think I have about as good of a suspect pool as anybody does.

Thanks for stopping me before I tried to make some PMs. Coulda been bad. :D. 

I think a smart Sja would claim the role of whoever they converted first, because they know we'll eventually shoot whoever doesn't claim for POE. But the elims will then have a member who can't claim a unique role, so someone without a unique role is evil. So my vote on you is coming off once I get a hold of a list of who has claimed. 

That said, usually villagers have follow up suspicions after an exe. Starting with me seems odd. Not totally evil, but like you're waiting to read the room before committing to a line of attack, which can be an evil move. 

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1 hour ago, The Unknown Order said:

Evil.

Maybe.

Edit: Wait, probably not because that means she didn't do the kill, but maybe converted last night.

I mean. Didn’t do the kill does not equal not evil at this point, especially since Team Evil could have up to four members at this point. Which reminds me-

I was thinking about it, and I actually can prove to y’all that I’m still Loyal. If I, Re-Shephir, were evil, nothing would have stopped me from duplicating the elim kill. So far there is no evidence that Sja doesn’t have three teammates, and that would make the current ratio 5-4. An extra kill takes that to 4-4.

Basically, in an evil!me world, the village has already lost. Which like this seems rather obvious to me but hey maybe it doesn’t to someone else :P

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

I think a smart Sja would claim the role of whoever they converted first, because they know we'll eventually shoot whoever doesn't claim for POE. But the elims will then have a member who can't claim a unique role, so someone without a unique role is evil. So my vote on you is coming off once I get a hold of a list of who has claimed. 

That said, usually villagers have follow up suspicions after an exe. Starting with me seems odd. Not totally evil, but like you're waiting to read the room before committing to a line of attack, which can be an evil move. 

See above- again, in a RS!evil world the village has already lost. More so if RS were the first convert.

Have you read the game? :P (I know the answer is no btw) but the exes so far have had a trend of killing off the people voting them as well. Doesn’t give much to go off of because it paints the whole cycle’s influence as villagers killing villagers. That in turn points to the inactives, which there’s no difference between them.

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Based off the clarification from Ash, this matches what Archer said. If Az is truthful, then Tani visited Illwei. TUO has claimed Cher and the vote manip wouldn't appear. 

One possibility that cannot yet be excluded is that Sja was trying to convert Illwei, but Cher got there first. I'd like to hear about this. Tani for now. 

@Archer

Of the living, I claimed stormspren C1 and am down to a life, Mat claimed Re-Shepir C3, Az claimed Moelach C4, TUO fakeclaimed Moelach C3 and Cher C4, and then there's you claiming Nergaoul C4 :P

That's about it. We know that there is either an unclaimed D-G or two envoyspren, and one unclaimed smokespren because of actions. 

Elan is not Sja but could be converted — she was scanned C2 by Araris before he died C3. I have also been scanned C1 so I am not Sja but could be converted. 

Fakeclaiming won't be a big challenge for Team Sja as due to player numbers, no role is guaranteed. Drought flipped vanilla. 

@Matrim's Dice — It's a fair point if we are in [WORST.] and as long as you were not converted C3. But I wonder. (No, genuinely.) The delayed Araris kill is off to me. I wouldn't be surprised if we're in an intermediate scenario between [WORST] and [BEST]. 

I'm obviously obligated to claim I wasn't converted but that's what puzzles me. If I wasn't converted and you weren't, what gives? I can understand why I'm not a kill or convert priority but I can't see why a Moelach claim wouldn't attract a kill. Or R-S a convert. Is it a time thing? Because you and Araris claimed late in cycle. Which means they didn't react in time. 

And Archer can't answer this but why vote on Elk but vote manip Illwei? She was okay with either getting lynched I guess. 

You checking on Tani is interesting too because we know she didn't kill C3 then.

Edited to add: Interesting in light of the fact the last remaining known role options don't look too great for Tani if she's capable of visiting Illwei. 

Edited by Kasimir
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4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

1. @Azmine_king, what did you see on the other cycles? 

2. @Ashbringer — Suppose Tani is Nergaoul and removes Araris's vote on her and shifts it to Illwei. What would Moelach see if Moelach watches Illwei? 

3. Painkillers are best invention. That and caffeine. 

4. Assume for the moment that Mat, Az, and TUO are truthful. Then, out of <Archer, Elan, Squirrel, Tani, xino>, we have either: <Nergaoul, smokespren, DG, Sja> or we have <Nerg, smokespren, envoyspren, envoyspren, Sja>

Tani and I/TJ both received PMs in the same cycle. Drought's PM might be with Az—Az, can you confirm if so and which cycle? 

5. If we're in [WORST CASE] as I modelled earlier, we actually can't lynch Sja today. Well, we can and should but it's complicated. We lynch Sja and she survives and is down two charges, the night kill goes through. 4-4. Game over. This is only a good scenario if we have a good convert candidate, whom Cher should kill. Then we lynch Sja and kill the convert and go to 4-3 next cycle with a weakened Sja who can't convert. If we are in [BEST CASE], then lynching Sja means she may not survive, depending on charges remaining. Either way, Cher has to shoot well. If Cher is Village. 

Edited to add #2: I feel like the two envoyspren scenario is more likely. It's a bit weird for there to be so few PMs if D-G has been active. 

 

Okay, so not gonna lie I didn't use my ability first or third cycle, my mafia brain works in day/night cycles so I forgot I could use it.

 

And no, I do not have a PM with anyone

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1 hour ago, Azmine_king said:

 

Okay, so not gonna lie I didn't use my ability first or third cycle, my mafia brain works in day/night cycles so I forgot I could use it.

 

And no, I do not have a PM with anyone

…convenient much? :P.

I feel like at this point there has to be a converted Unmade just based on probability, if that makes sense. A pool of Archer/Az/TUO isn’t one I’m super unhappy with but I also don’t love the assumption because it’s just an assumption. I feel like Archer had no reason to claim, which I instinctively suspect, and I’m not a fan of how he came out shading me immediately either. TUO, if they’re evil and we don’t kill them, we definitely lose, and I touched on earlier that Az not making an action is a bit convenient and they fit the low-profile.

Or I guess they have no reason to lie about C1 since they would have been village then, though it could be Sja!Az who converted the real Moelach.

I wouldn’t be against any of those three for those reasons, and I think Tani is an alright kill as well. I’m curious what their role is since they were tracked onto Illwei but then didn’t do anything last night, which my tinfoil brain makes her be Chemorach which only works if Az and TUO are both evil I think and is a bad theory that doesn’t hold up lol

Edit:

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice — It's a fair point if we are in [WORST.] and as long as you were not converted C3. But I wonder. (No, genuinely.) The delayed Araris kill is off to me. I wouldn't be surprised if we're in an intermediate scenario between [WORST] and [BEST]. 

I'm obviously obligated to claim I wasn't converted but that's what puzzles me. If I wasn't converted and you weren't, what gives? I can understand why I'm not a kill or convert priority but I can't see why a Moelach claim wouldn't attract a kill. Or R-S a convert. Is it a time thing? Because you and Araris claimed late in cycle. Which means they didn't react in time. 

I guess I’m assuming worst case because I don’t see a reason why we wouldn’t be in worst case. Sja converting two unmade right off the bat would mean she probably holds on to the last charge but that just makes the pool I mentioned more likely. I could see the delayed Araris kill being a product of his lateness in claiming. I don’t remember who that would implicate.

I mean I could see you as a convert choice simply because you’re a guaranteed one charge convert for the same ratio swing, even if it comes without an extra ability. I wouldn’t bet the game on it, though. I don’t think I was converted because I’m the kind of player who is expected to be, I guess? Like see everyone here assuming I’ve been converted. I think that’s why I wasn’t converted last cycle, either (assuming Sja even had enough charges for that)- the elims would rather use me as a misexe and then kill me if that doesn’t work out rather than convert me and have me likely be exed anyway. I’m 99% sure I’m dead this turn regardless of what happens though :P. And I think it’s reasonable that team evil saw my claim and not Araris’, since mine was three/four hours prior to rollover and Araris’ was closer to twenty minutes iirc.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Like see everyone here assuming I’ve been converted. I think that’s why I wasn’t converted last cycle, either (assuming Sja even had enough charges for that)- the elims would rather use me as a misexe and then kill me if that doesn’t work out rather than convert me and have me likely be exed anyway. I’m 99% sure I’m dead this turn regardless of what happens though :P. And I think it’s reasonable that team evil saw my claim and not Araris’, since mine was three/four hours prior to rollover and Araris’ was closer to twenty minutes iirc.

To be honest my main issue is if they wanted to go for a control play, since they were killing Araris, the best conversion target is either you or me, and I sure as hell wasn't :P I can see why you're not dead, mislynch issues aside - R-S is only deadly on an odd cycle, so you're kind of a C5 problem rather than an immediate one. I...am a bit at a loss as to why TUO thought claiming Moelach was any better than Cher. I absolutely agree Cher would be a target, but Moelach target scans. That's...kind of a bit more problematic for the Elim team, potentially, than BAM? Unless maybe they're hoping to fakeclaim or we were narrowing down on Sja. IDK, I'm thinking aloud right now, More work stuff so I can't update vote analysis until later.

I guess I'm not deadset on you being converted unless they were going for a control play. If we're looking at roles, TUO would've been a better shot, because Moelach/Cher is alway an immediate threat. This cycle, you become the threat because if we end up with a next cycle, R-S once again can duplicate.

But then why don't they want a control play? We've seen hints of this with the TJ kill, but eh.

26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I wouldn’t be against any of those three for those reasons, and I think Tani is an alright kill as well. I’m curious what their role is since they were tracked onto Illwei but then didn’t do anything last night, which my tinfoil brain makes her be Chemorach which only works if Az and TUO are both evil I think and is a bad theory that doesn’t hold up lol

That's why I think it doesn't make that much sense. Tani being a PM role is weird - you'd make a PM, but don't want to use it? I can see a few other possibilities here, but eh. Smokespren is odd too, but not impossible, though I have another smokespren candidate (xino.) That leaves some other role or, just really, Sja. I'm starting to think there is no D-G because we have way too few reported PMs for an active D-G.

26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I could see the delayed Araris kill being a product of his lateness in claiming. I don’t remember who that would implicate.

I don't 100% remember either. Everything else requires the Araris timestamp, which I'll pull up later. It looks better for C2 me and C2 you as well because we were both on the cycle late to react. I think the rest are all dead and flipped Village though: TJ, Illwei, Elk. The interesting question is whether Chantara was before or after, which can be referenced against her Elk vote. I have some recollection TUO was on as well, but I have no memory of Az, Elan et al being on, which makes sense.

Edited to add: @Ashbringer, is the list of those on inactivity warning publicised?

Edited by Kasimir
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1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I guess I’m assuming worst case because I don’t see a reason why we wouldn’t be in worst case. Sja converting two unmade right off the bat would mean she probably holds on to the last charge but that just makes the pool I mentioned more likely. I could see the delayed Araris kill being a product of his lateness in claiming. I don’t remember who that would implicate.

 

If anything, I think we should strategise/play as if we're in [WORST], obviously, but pathwalk for a series of more realistic options because we're trying to not mislynch again this time around :P

I'm convinced that either way, we need a good Sja candidate and a good convert candidate. Cher has to hit the convert, and we have to lynch Sja. It's better for us if we can lynch Sja because that burns two charges as opposed to one, which could be crucial to us keeping any edge we gain from a good Cher kill. And if we happen to actually kill Sja, so much the better.

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mat 

Alrighty, I've read up on the thread. Heres my thoughts, written as they came to me. 

Spoiler

 

Cycle One: Which individual can't afford to be exed?

-I like Xino's point about watching consistency. Saj can convert their critics as a defensive tactic, but their new minions will need to backtrack.

-v!Araris playing evil, and Mat voting for themselves? What is this madness. Why'd you include yourself on the RNG list, Mat? What's the logic

-Az decided Illwei was town before Illwei showed up. Why? 

-C1 conversation is dominated by people we know aren't Saj

-Tani pointedly parked on a safe vote and didn't engage much. Did show up when someone mentioned she hadn't shown up much, so she looks sus. Then moved to Illwei, which is technically normal, although I can frame it as a self aware elim move. And they were around nearish rollover, which is a Saj requirement if they want to be successful. 

-Xino, why'd ya self vote. I like the suggestion to kill a low activity person. I've liked everything I've seen from Xino so far. But I'm suspicious because it's all been non-targeted to avoid confrontation. When they said vote low activity person, they actually voted for themselves. Sus

-TUO's response to being acknowledged was typical for them. 

-I got named dropped four times and I'm not sure how to feel about it

 

Cycle Two: Who was converted? 

-There was definitely a conversion. If I were Saj, I'd avoid Kas because he's being exed, any people I'd be afraid won't be on consistently, like Chantara/me and Frozen. That leaves Elan, TUO, Xino, Tani, and Az, who all posted about the same amount as decent stealth picks, and Mat as an aggressive option. Personally, I'd avoid Mat because he was engaged enough to be suspected a bit, but he can be good for thread control. Az and TUO have occasionally been inactive for spells of games, so I wonder if they wouldn't go for them. Elan is a good pickup, although she had attracted some votes for her activity levels. Xino and Tani are regulars who don't play much, so they're unlikely to be CCed, so one of them would make sense. Tani had drawn a vote or two, so Xino seems like the best option. Unless they didn't want to grab the perfect candidate because IKYK, but that's a rabbit hole. You need to get value for your charges. 

-Doesn't make a lot of sense to vote Kas C2 because you know they aren't Saj. Az and Tani both did it, after Mat. Noted. 

-Elandera voted Illwei in opposition to the Kas train, which is probably normal but could be trust building. I'll call it a safe vote that looks bold in the moment and leave it at that. Actually, the weirder part was it was isolated. No commentary on anything else, but that's not Elan's style is it

-Weighing in on the kill vs conversion debate, I'd convert. To get to parity, I basically have to convert eventually, so best to do it early on and get the benefit of greater thread control.

-I should have temporarily hidden Illwei and Kas' posts, I'd have gotten through this a lot faster.

-Tani going from a Kas vote to an Araris one is... unreadable because it could be self pres.

-Mat-Tani not e-e because of his self pres vote on her.

-Chantara switched to Elk late based on a single post. I guess that's why her vote and manip didn't align.

-Random Elan train is inconsequential because everyone involved was village and changed their minds on their own. But it shows Elandera-Mat aren't e-e. I'll assume she wasn't lurking near rollover or she'd have reacted to the pressure, and no likely teammates were either, so can only be teammates C2 with TUO, Xino, Az, and Tani. Xino made one post about RL stuff, then dipped, which is unreadable. TUO was also quiet. Probably leaning towards Tani being the teammate in this scenario, because she was doing the job of driving a mix.

Cycle Three: DEATH

-TUO put a lot of effort into their claim poem. Paranoia says it's Saj claiming a team mate's role, but I'll working assumption that they're not Saj. It's early in the cycle for a gambit if they were freshly converted.

-Mint likely wasn't targeted for conversion, because of the pinch hitter request. Anyone under serious pressure near cycle's end is also unlikely, which takes out Tani, and Elandera if they were on to see it. Xino and TUO were too low profile to be reliable help. At this point I'd look at Az, Mat, or Kas. 

-cool, Kas made a post showing my role is village.

-Az coming in with a random contribution that e!needlessly exposes their role is a very villager move. And non Saj, unless we engage in paranoia.

-OH hello. Mat targeted Xino. Somone please explain the relevant implications of that. Can they be Saj? Can they have failed to convert? Are they cleared of being Saj?

Cycle Four:

-I see no reason we shouldn't all role claim at this point. Villagers are usually freer with information than the elims, so I'm village reading everyone who has done so so far. That, and they can't be Saj. My claim was in response to Kas asking for any details that might trun this game around for us earlier. 

-I like Mat's reason why he is clear. I actually think one of his targets to date has probably been Saj, so I'm hoping we aren't at 4 elims. 

-Not sure I follow the inferences Kas is making about my Tani PM. I saw she mentioned getting one C2?, so I think that was me? She didn't make it though, the GM did. Reminder that it went unused so I doubt she made it

 

 

At this point, I figure either Saj has been steadily converting and therefore doesn't have enough charges to tank a kill, so we can target them, or they have 2 charges saved so they only have 3 minions and. Welp. That'd be bad. Nevermind. But we could also coinshot them, right? All the role names are jumbling together now and I can't think of tactics. 

My focus is not on who might have been converted yesterday. Could be anyone. I'd rather look at who might have been evil in the earlier cycles, because we have a better idea about those. 

And even better, I'd rather just shoot Saj because it's a small shortlist that overlaps a lot with their likely minion choices. Elandera, Xino (pending me figuring out what Mat did to them), and Tani are good choices. 

 

Edited by Archer
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44 minutes ago, Archer said:

-Not sure I follow the inferences Kas is making about my Tani PM. I saw she mentioned getting one C2?, so I think that was me? She didn't make it though, the GM did. Reminder that it went unused so I doubt she made it

GM has to make all PMs. If it was gotten C2, it was made C1 by someone who sent in an action. All PMs are made at the end of the cycle by the GM. Issue is just that we have either an unaccounted for D-G (who cannot be Sja) or two envoyspren (because if Tani is truthful, and to be fair, you are at least agreeing with her) - then we have two known PMs which were created C1. I ascribe low credence to D-G existing because we've seen far too few PMs for this, but could be mistaken. As of this point, we have a mysterious Drought PM (cycle unknown) which both Az and TUO deny having (was it with Araris? Don't know), Tani-you created C1, and TJ-me created C1.

My personal suspicion is the Drought PM was more likely to be created C2 because Drought was more active then. One possibility as to why we've stopped seeing PMs is a PM creator got converted and is using their action slot for the kill, so cannot make PMs.

To recap, D-G can create up to four PMs with one action. Envoyspren can only create one PM with their action.

I'm ascribing slightly lower probability to Tani being a PM role because I don't think you'd make a PM you ddin't intend to use. (So, agreed.) But that leaves the smokespren (Soother) and Sja unaccounted for, unless there's something we're missing, e.g. one D-G allows a final slot for any role. All this assumes everyone is truthful. 

Edited to add #2: When I say 'unaccounted for', I mean: "We have seen evidence of these roles in action so they must exist, even if we don't currently have claims for them." Xino's vote was Soothed C1 and the only role that could have done it was a Smokespren. We know Sja exists in this game. And we know that given the existence of two PMs created in C1, this logically entails either D-G or two envoyspren. Since we don't have a Tani claim, it's possible to match what we know of her against the unaccounted-for roles. That's the angle I'm taking.

44 minutes ago, Archer said:

And even better, I'd rather just shoot Saj because it's a small shortlist that overlaps a lot with their likely minion choices. Elandera, Xino (pending me figuring out what Mat did to them), and Tani are good choices. 

I think we have to lynch Sja. If we don't, and Sja has enough charges, the conversion should still carry on, which penalises us unnecessarily. Moreover, a lynch burns two Sja charges, while a Cher kill [=Coinshot] burns one charge. If we make Sja run out of charges, minimally she can't convert - if we get lucky, she dies.

44 minutes ago, Archer said:

-OH hello. Mat targeted Xino. Somone please explain the relevant implications of that. Can they be Saj? Can they have failed to convert? Are they cleared of being Saj?

Mat targeted xino C1, and Mat claims not to have been roleblocked. There was also a missing vote on xino C1. This means several possibilities:

  • xino could be the smokespren and was redirected to Soothe a vote on himself
  • xino was roleblocked (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else
  • xino was Sja who converted (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else
  • xino had no action to send in (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else.

tldr; we just don't know. Sja can't be roleblocked and Mat's ability is a dup- huh. That's right.

God I'm a bloody moron, as Wyrm would say. The ability is a duplication, not a redirect. In other words, if xino was the smokespren, and Mat targeted xino C1, we should have seen a double Soothe. The only reason/situation in which xino is a smokespren and we don't see a double Soothe is when xino was targeting himself anyway (which, to be fair, is possible), so:

  • xino could be the smokespren and was dupli-redirected to Soothe a vote on himself, but was already Soothing himself
  • xino was roleblocked (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else
  • xino was Sja who converted (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else
  • xino had no action to send in (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else.

Edited to add: Oh, you're thinking of doubling Cher and lynch on Sja. Not a bad idea - I guess it's the trade-off between getting the convert right and also draining Sja or doubling down. Off the top of my head, can't tell which is the better strat.

Edited to add #3: ...Squirrel. It's with Squirrel isn't it. He who claims to watch. Squirrelwatcher. Drought had a PM with Squirrel.

Edited by Kasimir
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2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add #3: ...Squirrel. It's with Squirrel isn't it. He who claims to watch. Squirrelwatcher. Drought had a PM with Squirrel.

This is incorrect - and before you ask, no, this isn't a lg80 gambit

I'm guessing drought meant a PM with a moelach claim, since they watch a player to see who targeted them

I like your thought progression though

Edit: did a bit of rereading and I like the case on Tani. As of right now the biggest concern I have is the lack of resistance on such a push - you'd expect elims to try to keep their partner alive, especially if they're close to majority like we think they are. But that's not really much of a defense in itself and I'd at least like to know Tani's claim.

Edited by Squirrelwatcher
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4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I ascribe low credence to D-G existing because we've seen far too few PMs for this, but could be mistaken.

Someone created a PM between TUO and I on C1 (got it C2). I don't know if that's one of those that's been listed quite yet.

4 hours ago, Archer said:

And even better, I'd rather just shoot Saj because it's a small shortlist that overlaps a lot with their likely minion choices. Elandera, Xino (pending me figuring out what Mat did to them), and Tani are good choices.

If you believe Araris (confirmed now), I am not a Sja candidate.

These votes on Tani are interesting, but I'm inclined to let her either die to the filter or have a chance to come back and defend herself (or a pinch hitter if one is available). I'm still catching up on the other bits of the thread though, so my vote is still pending.

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1 hour ago, Elandera said:

Someone created a PM between TUO and I on C1 (got it C2). I don't know if that's one of those that's been listed quite yet.

1 DG, or one D-G and one envoyspren, or one D-G and a role we don't know about.

Those we don't know about: <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino>, and the roles we do know about but have no claims for: either <D-G, envoyspren, smokespren, Sja>, or <D-G, ?, Sja, smokespren>.

Logically, since TUO and Elan got a C1 PM, and so did Archer and Tani, and myself and TJ, this requires us to posulate either three envoyspren (more claims than players; not impossible but suggests one of our <Cher, Moelach, R-S, Nergaoul> claimants is lying; note we have definitive evidence that Cher (C2 kill), Moelach (existence of Death Rattles) and Nergaoul (C2 votejack) exist, so we should have gotten a counterclaim if they were lying, unclear about R-S. This isn't to say they can't be converted, but just focuses on where Sja is hiding. Or, we have to postulate the two sets above.

So to recap:

Based on our current claims:

Either:

  • <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino> -> <D-G, envoyspren, smokespren, Sja>
  • <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino> -> <D-G, ?, smokespren, Sja>

As Elan pointed out, one way or another, she can't be Sja. Araris died loyal BAM and scanned me C1, and scanned Elan C2. Araris is unlikely to have lied about his scan results given the importance of narrowing a Sja pool. So however we assign the results, we know that Elan can't be Sja. It has to be one of <Squirrel, Tani, xino>. But this branch assumes that everyone else who roleclaimed has been truthful so far. What happens if we question that?

  • <Archer, Mat, Az, TUO> -> <Cher, Molelach, ?, Nergaoul>

Then we get this branch. I'm excluded because I was scanned stormspren C1. This leaves us with our pool of four: <Archer, Mat, Az, TUO>. Now, this actually doesn't wash out too well, because Cher, Molelach, and Negaoul all exist. As I've mentioned, we have direct evidence for this. So our main Sja/liar candidate in this pool is Mat: anyone else would require another player to be lying. Consider:

If TUO is lying about being Cher, then TUO has to be Sja - unlikely that another role would feel pressure to lie. But if TUO is Sja, then another player must actually be Cher, which means that that player is lying. 

17 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I've missed most of what happened though

We're at lylo. If you can claim actions and role, minimally, it'd be helpful, even better if you can tell us if you were in a PM or who your suspicions are :P 

Edited to add:

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

These votes on Tani are interesting, but I'm inclined to let her either die to the filter or have a chance to come back and defend herself (or a pinch hitter if one is available). I'm still catching up on the other bits of the thread though, so my vote is still pending.

Elan, I'd he happy to hear it if my models are mistaken, since we'd be in a better position but the maths points out we're at lylo, which is one reason the thread has turned into a claims party. I don't think we can afford to wait for her to come back, because we can't afford to get it wrong this cycle. If we're 5-4, a single successful Elim kill brings us to parity and they win. If we're 6-3, we do have more leeway but that's the most optimistic scenario.

Her inactivity, if not a ploy, could be a sign she's not Sja, but that's always hard to affirm until closer to rollover.

Edited to add 2:

3 hours ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

I'm guessing drought meant a PM with a moelach claim, since they watch a player to see who targeted them

This was my initial thought, but both Moelach claims have denied this. Moreover, near the end of last cycle, Drought came on at your ping and voted for TUO, who had claimed Moelach. He was genuinely surprised and retracted instantly when you warned him TUO was our Moelach claim. This was two minutes before rollover. Would Drought have time to change a death rattle?

(I guess it's not impossible. But it's odd.)

Edited to add 3: My point is that we can't wait for the filter to help us, if it will. We absolutely have to get it right this cycle, and that means looking/going for whoever has the highest chance of being Sja.

Edited by Kasimir
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9 hours ago, Archer said:

Why'd you include yourself on the RNG list, Mat? What's the logic

Because I forgot to take myself off tbh

I like your thoughts, Archer. I'm still curious why you felt the need to claim but we need a successful exe and something tells me yours won't catch on :P.

Tani's is catching on too fast and that makes me nervous, but I'm probably just getting cold feet... idk. I'll propose Az for an alternative.

Edit:

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 3: My point is that we can't wait for the filter to help us, if it will. We absolutely have to get it right this cycle, and that means looking/going for whoever has the highest chance of being Sja.

Oh right, this is probably a good idea :P. Az is more likely to be a convert than Sja.

Az

What'd you say? A Sja pool of xino/Tani/Squirrel?

xino

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Either:

  • <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino> -> <D-G, envoyspren, smokespren, Sja>
  • <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino> -> <D-G, ?, smokespren, Sja>

It has to be the second one.

I'm a nightspren - I no actioned c1, targeted araris c2 (saw illwei), and targeted TUO c3 (saw no one)

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This was my initial thought, but both Moelach claims have denied this. Moreover, near the end of last cycle, Drought came on at your ping and voted for TUO, who had claimed Moelach. He was genuinely surprised and retracted instantly when you warned him TUO was our Moelach claim. This was two minutes before rollover. Would Drought have time to change a death rattle?

(I guess it's not impossible. But it's odd.)

Oh hmm

It could be a nightspren, then since they watch players - in that case, it would be illwei since I don't have a pm

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8 hours ago, Elandera said:

Someone created a PM between TUO and I on C1 (got it C2). I don't know if that's one of those that's been listed quite yet.

If you believe Araris (confirmed now), I am not a Sja candidate.

These votes on Tani are interesting, but I'm inclined to let her either die to the filter or have a chance to come back and defend herself (or a pinch hitter if one is available). I'm still catching up on the other bits of the thread though, so my vote is still pending.

C1 PM had to be made by a villager, so that's NAI. Tani talked about 3 hours ago in our PM saying she thinks the PM was made at the start of C3 by Ash, I'm still waiting on GM confirmation. But the more relevant detail is she's active, so a filter kill is unlikely. 

2 hours ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

It has to be the second one.

I'm a nightspren - I no actioned c1, targeted araris c2 (saw illwei), and targeted TUO c3 (saw no one)

Oh hmm

It could be a nightspren, then since they watch players - in that case, it would be illwei since I don't have a pm

That's a very late claim, so I'm suspicious of it. I imagine the elims will be the last to claim. But for now, I'm looking for people without role claims, so you're off my chopping block. Same with Elandera, who I forgot had a role. 

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Tani's is catching on too fast and that makes me nervous, but I'm probably just getting cold feet... 

What'd you say? A Sja pool of xino/Tani/Squirrel?

xino

Assuming it's 6 votes to 4, even if we all vote for elims, if we all don't vote for the same elim, they can pick which elim they lose, which is a strategic advantage we need to be cognizant of. 

Kas, I won't quote your posts because I'm on mobile. But I don't think I disagree with anything you said. Except for me maybe being evil. :P. Anyone want to counterclaim my role? That's our big confirmation measure we're relying on this game. Plus, Chantara's activity levels explain the lack of manip in most cycles and her stated suspicion of the person she manipped onto matches. 

Re: Xino's action the time Mat messed with them. He might have soothed himself, but his vote came... from himself. Was he just trying to prove his role? I can see that. Otherwise, we have an unclaimed soother, right? That's interesting. 

Also, I'm definitely not voting Mat today, but if Tani flips Saj, there's the possibility he covered for her. Can't he have submitted the kill instead and said he targeted her while she did the conversion? 

Anyway, my biggest quibble with Tani is her C1 votes seemed off. Biggest issue with Xino is their lack of confrontational posting. I'm sure my thoughts yesterday about who was the best conversion picks were off in some ways, but at this point, I'm comfortable keeping pressure there until we can get defenses from them. 

Edit: my PM with Tani started in C3, so a C2 action made it

Edited by Archer
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4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Tani's is catching on too fast and that makes me nervous, but I'm probably just getting cold feet... idk. I'll propose Az for an alternative.

I mean, valid question. Tani could be a convert instead. Question is how inactive Sja can really be.

If we have sufficient pressure on Tani for the moment, I'm going to go with xino as well. xino. Fair warning, if we are 5-4, any split or any unknown vote manipulation means we may have to be wary of a hammer. But that's a tomorrow problem.

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What'd you say? A Sja pool of xino/Tani/Squirrel?

*pained look*

Nothing against this, just paranoia >>

If we think the <Mat, Archer, Az, TUO> pool is pretty much accurate as <R-S, Nergaoul, Moelach, Cher>, then yeah - we're left with the <Squirrel, Tani, xino> pool since Araris scanned Elan as not-Sja.

I just think there's some logical room here for one of you to be Sja in cahoots with actual Nergaoul et al - point taken Archer, and I agree that it fits Chantara's behaviour, I'm...shall we just say I'm covering the escape hatches this time, given the Malibu-artform escape hatch I didn't emphasise the last time. In other words, roles clear only for the Sja pool and only partially, since Sja will obviously fakeclaim anything but Sja, and a teammate may help. (I don't know if that's promising though since it's easier in general for Sja to tank a lynch and the more she's out of charges, the more her value to the team decreases.)

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Assuming it's 6 votes to 4, even if we all vote for elims, if we all don't vote for the same elim, they can pick which elim they lose, which is a strategic advantage we need to be cognizant of. 

Okay, yeah, this.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Re: Xino's action the time Mat messed with them. He might have soothed himself, but his vote came... from himself. Was he just trying to prove his role? I can see that. Otherwise, we have an unclaimed soother, right? That's interesting. 

I suspect it was just a role proof, because the margin was way too big. Tani hasn't been on, so IDK if she could be our missing soother claim. But generally it doesn't make sense for it to be anyone else.

3 hours ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

I'm a nightspren - I no actioned c1, targeted araris c2 (saw illwei), and targeted TUO c3 (saw no one)

Hmm. So if this is true, Illwei probably tried to check Araris C2 after his claim, which is reasonable since he'd have been a good kill/convert target. What's interesting is that if this is true, no one went after TUO C3. Which...why not? Time of the claim, as Mat suggested? Converted earlier?

1 hour ago, Archer said:

C1 PM had to be made by a villager, so that's NAI. Tani talked about 3 hours ago in our PM saying she thinks the PM was made at the start of C3 by Ash, I'm still waiting on GM confirmation. But the more relevant detail is she's active, so a filter kill is unlikely. 

It's helpful insofar as we have some D-G confirmation on the assumption that Squirrel is truthful. Which, well, let's mark as an assumption. There had been too few PMs for D-G activity but now we almost need someone to be lying if there's no D-G because three C1 PMs is a lot. Tani saying the PM was made start C3 by Ash is weirder because Tani claimed in thread C2 to have a PM, meaning she then has a PM created C1 with someone else.

It's not a thing of suspicion in and of itself, just confirms we have a missing D-G, which is moderately checkable. Either that, or as I said, someone's lying and we have a missing envoyspren or bunch of envoyspren alongside D-G. 

Filter kill requires non-posting in thread. But I agree: if she's active, then likelihood the filter will hit her is low.

Strategy talk

Alright guys, let's talk strategy. Assuming [WORST CASE], even supposing we lynch correctly, if Sja doesn't die (the lynch will just knock her down two charges), the kill goes through and we're done for. We have two ways we can play this:

A. We can double down. This means Cher/ @The Unknown Order has to kill whoever is getting lynched. And then we hope this is enough to take Sja out since she'd require three charges to stay alive. 

But this won't kill Sja in this intermediate scenario (probably a few others like it), where Sja successfully converts non-Unmade C1 and C3 but not C2 because Illwei dies before being converted. Sja has three charges in this model. I don't think situations like this are common, but all the same. In that scenario, we automatically lose as soon as the Sja kill goes through.

And [WORST] assumes Sja hasn't hit Unmade. If Sja has, then she will be lower on charges such that a combined kill will be likely to succeed.

B. We can hedge our bets. This means Cher/ TUO has to kill our top convert suspect. And we lynch our top Sja suspect. Ideally, this kills Sja, but even if she survives, we should have killed most of her charges, enough that a convert won't go through. So our delta should be -1 (Sja kill), and -1 to Team Sja via Coinshot kill.

Of course, here, the tricky thing is finding our top convert suspect on top of our top Sja suspect >> The one advantage I think this has is that this to some extent nullifies attempts by Team Sja to control who is hit, since they can't stop a Cher kill (unless they have a roleblock, then RIP us.)

I don't feel particularly strongly about this. I think a lot hinges on Cher either way, but I could see us having to play this last cycle out even if Cher is already on Team Sja, with Team Sja having a conversion left. ( @Ashbringer, are you in a position to be able to answer if you would require us to play out a loss scenario (e.g. 5-4, net delta minus one even if Village lynches right)? I figure it may be a bit too sensitive but it's worth asking :P 

Worth getting clear on which we go for.

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