509 posts in this topic

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

...Maybe we're just saving it to be end-cycle psychos though :ph34r:

Always

What do you think about xino’s vote being missing from C1?

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5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What do you think about xino’s vote being missing from C1?

I hadn't seen any additional votes on that day so I just assumed someone had used the ability in order to be able to claim it later as an "I'm not Sja" card. But really what I'd have done in their shoes was to subtly claim the voteshift before doing it so when I claimed, I could say "Yeah, and here's the evidence it was me rather than someone else." It avoids worries if there's a contest between claims later on. But anyway, it's not as easy to contest, so I doubt it matters significantly.

I don't remember if @Ashbringer clarified whether Nergaoul can change a vote to a no-vote - I think I asked? - and I'm going to just shamelessly ask again because it's not like we're making him count votes so whatever. 

The important thing is xino wasn't in any danger, so it didn't matter as I was the lead train, and just as importantly, no votejacker C1 would have been Elim, so that part is moot.

I don't think the C2 vote was also meant to be as demonstrative because demonstrative votejacking - like removing a vote from a player who was never in danger - doesn't have an impact. It's just meant to prove you have that role. Now granted, Illwei and I both voted Elk really late, but given it was a 4:3 difference and it was on Illwei, and the lead votes were 2 for a decent chunk of the cycle, it doesn't read to me like a demonstrative votejack at all. A safe way to do a demonstrative votejacking would be to take a no-vote and put it on someone who wouldn't be touched, like Mint or Az. [ Hi @Ashbringer :P Can Nergaoul change a no-vote to a vote?] 

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Does anyone have a list of everyone who has claimed and what they claimed? I've had a hard time keeping up with the game but I think I can add something.

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Mat, I guess to put the same point another way: we had a last minute swing for Elan, then Elk, and you and Araris both said you'd be on late if possible to save yourselves. I don't see how any player in their right mind could look at all that volatility and go, "That's right, I'm going to swap a vote from Tani to Illwei, purely on random and not because I have any opinion on them at all, in order to prove my role." It's not purely demonstrative, and in a cycle where we know that it is possible another of us is no longer Village, it's a data point.

2 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Does anyone have a list of everyone who has claimed and what they claimed? I've had a hard time keeping up with the game but I think I can add something.

Publicly:

Kas: Stormspren
Araris: BAM.

That's it :P

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1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, reading C1 could help get an idea of who Sja might think would be a good convert.

Well yes

But ere's the thing - I'm terrible at conversion games (well, technically I've never played any, but being honest I'm pretty sure inexperience is equivalent being terrible)

Add that to the fact that I haven't even been around for most of the game means that I'm going to be pretty bad at conversion theorizing, since it's rough noticing inconsistencies in play if you havent been around them pre conversion 

But Im better at looking for pairings in a more conventional SE game with a fixed team of elims. So I'll do what I'm more experienced at (looking for e-e pairings), while you guys can look for inconsistencies and the like

Edit:

Basically I'm bad at conversion games and want to make up for it somehow

Edited by Squirrelwatcher
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5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I don't remember if @Ashbringer clarified whether Nergaoul can change a vote to a no-vote - I think I asked? - and I'm going to just shamelessly ask again because it's not like we're making him count votes so whatever. 

The important thing is xino wasn't in any danger, so it didn't matter as I was the lead train, and just as importantly, no votejacker C1 would have been Elim, so that part is moot.

I don't think the C2 vote was also meant to be as demonstrative because demonstrative votejacking - like removing a vote from a player who was never in danger - doesn't have an impact. It's just meant to prove you have that role. Now granted, Illwei and I both voted Elk really late, but given it was a 4:3 difference and it was on Illwei, and the lead votes were 2 for a decent chunk of the cycle, it doesn't read to me like a demonstrative votejack at all. A safe way to do a demonstrative votejacking would be to take a no-vote and put it on someone who wouldn't be touched, like Mint or Az. [ Hi @Ashbringer :P Can Nergaoul change a no-vote to a vote?] 

… I’m gonna go with no, they need to move a vote from one person to another.

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9 hours ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

Can someone give me a rundown about drought's playstyle? Posts feel off to me but I've never played with them before

Honestly, at this point, I don't don't know my own playstyle. With a two year break and a game where I wasn't super active to base off of, not even I know where I'll end up. 

Also, sorry, I've had some real life work stuff come up that's taking a bit of time. I should have a decent bit of time tomorrow, though. 

On 9/24/2021 at 2:02 PM, Kasimir said:

My read from the cycle discussion is that it is more likely TJ was the Elim kill, in which case, Illwei was likely the Chermoarish kill. Unclear if the vote swing was enemy action or Villager fog-of-war

I'd agree here, I don't see the elims having gone for Illwei after how much suspicion was on them last cycle. They'd prove useful as a distraction from the real elims at least. 

 

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Having reread Drought's large post C2, I'm honestly unconvinced of village intent. A significant motivation behind doing a thread reread should be finding someone to vote on, IMO. But Drought is just sort of positive/neutral on everyone he talks about. Drought defends Kas, which could be Sja aiming for village cred if Kas flips. I do like the vote on Mat later on, given what I've read so far.

Part of this is that it wasn't a thread re-read, it was just a thread read. That was a "live reaction" from me as I read through the thread. 

And... I think that I'm bad at finding people suspicious. I don't want anyone to be an elim and trusting people is my default stance these days. Which... isn't good but it was definetly the reads I was getting. I think I'd have to do re-read specifically searching for suspicious things to pull up any real suspect list. 

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

There's a possibility that Araris lied and that he's not BAM, but this would require the real BAM to have been converted C1. I can't see BAM remaining quiet about it otherwise, though maybe real BAM is one of our less active players. But that's one hell of a risky play since Unmade roles are unique so I wouldn't put high credence on those options.

It's also possible that there is no BAM in the game and Araris is just lying... but I think that's too much of a gamble for me to have attempted it. 

 

@Matrim's Dice I still haven't seen anything from you that gives us any more read into your thoughts or anything so my vote will be thrown onto you. 

Mat

 

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I'm going to add the the one vote chaos here and vote Azmine. This is purely a gut read, though, so I don't have much logical reasoning to back it up. I promise to try to be a bit more active in the next few days but work has been absolutely brutal and my brain is fried.

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1 hour ago, Droughtbringer said:

It's also possible that there is no BAM in the game and Araris is just lying... but I think that's too much of a gamble for me to have attempted it. 

I thought there was something about all 9 unmade being in the game if >9 people sign up

 

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8 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

I thought there was something about all 9 unmade being in the game if >9 people sign up

That eventually got taken out, as it was looking like I’d have 9-10 players and if all 9 Unmade were guarunteed, it would be pretty easy for claims to get out of hand. So that’s not currently the case. Or rather, it’s not guarunteed that all 9 Unmade are present.

(This game was intended for >19 players, quickly rebalanced for 10, and then rerebalanced for 14 :P)

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15 hours ago, Kasimir said:

My Tani vote though - just to say a bit more about it. I haven't looked too closely but it's just running off the basis that it's a really...involved effort to get Illwei killed or save Tani. It's not implausible since enough people voted for Illwei and Elk and Chantara expressed uncertainty about Illwei (remember that Illwei looks like the candidate for the Cher kill - and yes I realised I've mispelled Chemoarish's name enough times but whatever I dub thee Cher) but I tend to treat involved efforts as being more likely to stem from informed parties than uninformed, uncoordinated parties. So, from Elims rather than blundering Villagers.

A benign-ish explanation here is that Tani did the manipping. Doesn't explain the move to Illwei who also died though.

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7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

A benign-ish explanation here is that Tani did the manipping. Doesn't explain the move to Illwei who also died though.

Didn't really want to say that directly but yes, that's why I voted for her earlier this cycle, as I'm not sure it was benign activity. 

I've since swapped — at the bottom of one of the longposts — to thinking it was Village Nergaoul, and so have shifted my vote to Drought while I work on a more detailed vote analysis post (happening now.)

LATER KAS IF YOU READ THIS DON'T HIT POST CTRL + C OR YOU'LL LOSE THE POST

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Alright. My promised thoughts:

1. If the Nine are not guaranteed, then it puts a slightly different complexion on things. I feel that no matter how you slice it, balance requires at least one of <Ba-Ado-Mishram, Moelach, and Nightspren.> Probably more than one for redundancy. Conversion games are brutal for the Village and late converts can mess with trusts. Not giving the Village any way to detect conversions is rough, because it can take a while to show. But we know that minimally, Moelach exists (because Death Rattles do), and Illwei was a Nightspren, so I would shrug on the issue of BAM. BAM doesn't really significantly tip the scales either way I don't think, so it's not implausible we have BAM but also not impossible BAM is left out. If we had a way to confirm Araris was really BAM (likely requiring consent from @Elandera), it'd be helpful. But depending on the numbers, I feel that the closer we are to lylo, the more we should just go "soddit" and claim actions and roles because what do we have to lose? I can see a case for not doing it this cycle, but I do feel this has to be highlighted.

But here's an aside - let's look at the roles we know have to be in the game:

Spoiler

Confirmed:

Yelig-Nar - TJ: Lurcher/standard NK protect
Moelach - ?: Identifies all who targeted player, enables Death Rattles
Ashertmarn - Elk: Roleblocker
Nightspren - Illwei: Identifies one who targeted player, passive Death Rattle
Sja-anat - ?: OG Conversion Elim, point of this game.
Chemoarish - ?: Standard Coinshot, kills every Even cycle.

Implied because we had two kills last cycle, and no other role can cause a second C2 kill.

Claimed:

Dai-Gonarthis/two Envoyspren - ?: PM creator.

Implied because TJ and I received a PM that was created C1, and Tani claims to have also had a PM created C1. Minimally one Envoyspren.

Ba-Ado-Mishram - Araris: Role scanner.
Stormspren - Kas: Thug

Implied:

Nergaoul - ?: Votejacker

Implied because only Nergaoul can switch one vote from one player to another.

Smokespren - ?: Votejacker

Implied because only a Smokespren can Soothe a vote (cf. xino C1.)

2. My relook at the C1 voting:

Spoiler

Kas (4): Araris<1>, Kas<2>, Kas<5>, Mat<5>, TJ<2>, Elk
Tani (1): Araris<2>
Mint (1): Elan<1>
Illwei (1): Kas<3>, Tani<2>
xino (1): xino<2>
Araris (0): Kas<1>, xino<1>, Tani<1>
Mat (0): Mat<1>, TJ<1>
Elan (0): Mat<2>
TJ (0): Mat<3>
TUO (0): Kas<4>, Mat<4>

The main discrepancy between this and the official record is the missing xino vote. We know that Nergaoul can only transfer votes so the action on xino is clear smokespren activity. As I've said, this seems like a purely demonstrative votejack to me.

On C1, I stated that Mat was a bit less likely to be my main Malibu candidate. I chalked this down to two factors:

A. I didn't see Sja having much gain from defending Araris when the votes picked up early. I felt the claim that Araris claiming Sja was NAI was a bit too bold since nothing about pre-game chatter excluded a roleclaim, and I think that's a really confident reaction to go for to early cycle pressure on another player who: to be fair, is more likely to be Village than Sja at that point, just due to raw probability, but even so.

B. I feel like Sja had no reason to break the tie. We had a nice six-way tie going, and at that point in C1, I don't think that was actually a bad strategy at all, since that gives us decent coverage and hopefully we'll wing Sja. The one exception is if Sja is implicated in the tie and finds it unacceptable, but Sja is lynch-resistant, and 1/6 odds are not bad odds at all. But Mat breaks the tie by stacking a second vote on me.

But let's take another look at the situation, since IMO that's one of the major shifts of C1.

  • Ash reports the six-way, with xino noting (and having created it.) Xino's move is also notable - he asks us to lynch a low-activity player where Sja could be hiding as a precaution and then promptly goes for himself. Xino is exposing himself to the lynch here - it's a six-way, and only 1/6 chances of death, but should still be a little risk-loving for anyone not lynch-resistant. Why?
  • Mat is implicated in the six-way and breaks it by putting me ahead with a vote on me. This is potentially interesting because Mat does state C2 that he doesn't want to die, and he and Araris talk about 1/3 odds versus 1/4 odds. 1/6 is much less likely to kill, but even so.
  • Having tried to solicit me to join in the Araris lynch, Tani gives up on xino's defection and goes onto Illwei. I think that Tani's commitment to the Araris lynch makes a bit less sense for Sja, but then again, it's not inconsistent with Tani's playstyle and pre-game chatter, so I'm less inclined to downgrade Sja credence on that basis alone.
  • Elan responds to an early Mat poke vote - fairly responsive, but passive, which could be an Elim sign, since Sja has no reason to be especially engaged this early - with a vote on Mint that essentially goes: alea iacta est. Which is a safe place to stash a vote, and interesting because Elan just completely missed that there were already three votes on Araris so this would never have been an RNGesus deal. I'm tempted to lightly Village read C1 Elan for this, which corresponds with the results of Araris's scan - I feel like on the hypothesis that Sja carefully picked a side-train, Sja would have also realised this is not a random vote.

Because that's how the game works, most votes are likely to be Village. The real C1 question boils down therefore to two key questions:

  • Where Sja is likely to be hiding, and
  • Who is likely to be Sja.

For C1, we can look at the three sets again:

[N.B.: My reads for C1 focus on where Sja is. This does not take into consideration who has been converted or who can be converted.]

Quote

 

[HIGH ACTIVITY, CONTROL]: <TJ*, Mat, Kas, Illwei>

[LOW PROFILE, ACTIVE]: <Araris, Elan, xino, Tani, Elk>

[SEMI-INACTIVE]: <Chantara, Mint, Drought, TUO, Az>

 

TJ, Elk, and Illwei are definitively cleared. I highlight myself because that's not confirmed. Suppose we assume Araris is BAM and truthful:

Quote

[HIGH ACTIVITY, CONTROL]: <TJ*, Mat, Kas, Illwei>

[LOW PROFILE, ACTIVE]: <Araris, Elan, xino, Tani, Elk>

[SEMI-INACTIVE]: <Chantara, Mint, Drought, TUO, Az>

Two things jump out at me: Suppose we take as true that I have not been converted as Sja. We know for a fact that TJ and Illwei were not converted. If TJ was the Elim kill, then Sja was either trying to convert Illwei and got stopped by Cher, or, as I'm guessing, trying to leave Illwei alive to absorb controversy. Either way, the fact TJ is dead and Illwei dead without being converted implies to me that Sja did not go for a C1 control conversion. Instead, Sja chose a C2 control kill. This is interesting because we are looking strictly at C1 activity profiling here: the fact TJ and Illwei both died unconverted is a clear indication that whatever Sja's C1 conversion was, control was not a high priority. (Or, we could take it as an ominous sign for Mat.)

This insight does not require us to assume Araris is BAM and truthful. But if we do, then we know that the biggest pool for Sja to be converting is among the semi-inactives. We could read this two ways: first, Sja is a high activity player who preferred a teammate who can stay hidden. If so, strongest credence on Sja-aMat, with xino and Tani as potential seconds. Second, Sja is a semi-inactive or low profile player. I think I put a bit more credence on this because Sja had no issues killing TJ.

Now, C2 TJ did state he felt Araris was the least Village, but this was pre-BAM reveal, after which we proceded to panic PM each other about what the chull was going on, and he mentioned Mat and Tani as well. 

We could postulate C2 TJ was a threat kill, because he was getting close to the mark. This indicates we should look at the set of Araris, Mat, and Tani. Alternatively, TJ could have been killed to cast suspicion on them. But by and large I don't find a TJ kill odd because he tends to be a decent candidate for a threat kill anyway, and did have a decent game in LG80. (Did Sja play LG80?) But let's return to the scenario.

Team Sja did not know (unless there was info leakage somewhere) that Illwei would be NKed by Cher. Even if they did not know if there would be a Cher this game, they likely assumed - and played under the assumption that Cher exists. Furthermore, they likely thought the [HIGH ACTIVITY, CONTROL] set would be <Mat, Kas, Illwei> going into the next cycle (we add Drought in C2, I don't think that's exceptionally objectionable.) 

I think the one question that stands out to me is: why leave so many in the high activity/control set? Based off C1, we know that three people in that set were untouched.

Quote

C1: [HIGH ACTIVITY, CONTROL]: <TJ*, Mat, Kas, Illwei>
C2: [HIGH ACTIVITY, CONTROL]: <TJ*, Drought, Mat, Kas, Illwei>

I think there are only really two possibilities: first, that Sja went for one of Drought or Mat, or one of them is Sja. Second, that Sja isn't terribly concerned about the high activity/control set because that's not where Team Sja is.

True, Drought or Mat could be C1 Sja or convert candidates. But one reason to leave so many alive and unconverted could either be because of the Village's tendency to lynch players who stick their heads above the parapet on early cycles, or because of the need for cover. Namely, that it looks suspicious as all heck if you are the last high-energy player standing, and the rest are all dead Villagers.

To be sure, they could have left Illwei and myself alive and unconverted for camouflage. But if we're looking at a Drought-Mat team, Illwei and me are thin camouflage: that's 2/4 of that set gone. I don't know they would be so gung-ho about setting me up for a potential mislynch, setting Illwei up for a potential mislynch, and offing TJ.

tldr; I don't think any of these are exceptionally strong points, but I think it's well worth looking at the sets again by cross-referencing the C3 results. But that's a C3 problem. Suffice to say I have weak reason to think that Sja is in the <Chantara, Mint, Drought, TUO, Az> set, potentially <xino, Tani> too. But this isn't working off Mat's posts or voting patterns, which I feel are...weird.

I also highlight that xino has a weird vote, and Elan looks a bit more Village off C1, which fits with Araris's claim that she's not Sja.

3. My relook at the C2 voting:

Spoiler

Elan (1): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>
Kas (2): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>

Interesting point here. Tani makes a fairly opportunistic vote by swinging onto me after Illwei. We now know by this point Illwei is Village. Araris sort of doesn't like that and joins Mat on the Tani train, meaning we have a tie.

Now, obviously this isn't going to last - this is very early on in the cycle. But I think it's worth looking at, anyway, because who breaks ties is always interesting.

Here's the next move:

Elan (1): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>
Kas (3): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az

Az jumps on board to break the tie in Tani's favour.

I move off Elan and vote on Illwei, and WWF SE edition apparently begins.

Elan (0): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Illwei (2): Kas<2>, Elan
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>
Kas (3): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az

I'm still the lead train, but if Tani is Sja, then Az's vote doesn't look really good, but neither does Elan, as Elan stacks onto a second, existing wagon. If we suppose Araris is truthful, then Elan could have been the C1 convert. If Tani isn't Sja, then Elan's vote looks worse than Az's, even as Elan finds a side-train and stays there.

Elan (0): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (1): Kas<3>
Illwei (1): Kas<2>, Elan
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>
Kas (3): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az

And this has become another near-tie as I pull off Illwei and onto Araris. Az pulls off and stays off, while Chantara shows up for the first time.

Elan (0): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (2): Kas<3>, Illwei<2>
Illwei (1): Kas<2>, Elan
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>
Kas (1): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az<1>

Leaving us with an Araris-Tani draw.

Then Drought inaugurates the Mat train:

Elan (0): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (2): Kas<3>, Illwei<2>
Illwei (1): Kas<2>, Elan
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>
Kas (1): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az<1>
Mat (1): Drought

I'm divided about this one. I get not wanting to lynch people who aren't there; at the same time, failing to put killing pressure there means that people don't have incentive to show up, especially if they're Sja. I know this feeds into a CC fight, in part. I kind of feel like the reasons that Mat is sus can apply to Tani too: she's been pretty opaque and leaning into the chaos demon rep. She has more activity than say, C2 xino or Az, but just enough to stay under the radar apart from Araris mentioning he was tempted to go after her, which seems to have been the impetus for Mat's initial vote.

Elan (0): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (2): Kas<3>, Illwei<2>, Tani<2>
Illwei (1): Kas<2>, Elan, Kas<4>, Elk<1>
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>
Kas (0): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az<1>
Mat (2): Drought, Kas<5>

We now have a two-way Illwei-Tani tie. Tani unvotes saying she'd misread something. I feel bleh about it. One one hand, that seems...really overly defensive, and I feel like an Elim would've been better off keeping the vote in place. It allows for a veneer of activity, given the threat already said I was still on the table. At the same time, Elims tend to be more conscious of how they are being perceived, and she does swap to Araris, keeping her vote live. I go from Illwei to Mat, making it a Tani-Mat-Araris tie, and Elk comes in to vote on Illwei, so suddenly it's a four-way. Apparently he's channeling Striker now.

Here's where the chaos begins. Mat self-preses:

Elan (0): Kas<1>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (3): Kas<3>, Illwei<2>, Tani<2>, Mat<2>, Kas<6>
Illwei (1): Kas<2>, Elan, Kas<4>, Elk<1>
Tani (2): Mat<1>, Araris<2>, Mat<3>
Kas (0): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az<1>
Mat (1): Drought, Kas<5>
Elk (1): TJ

And is persuaded back to Tani because Araris self-presing would make it a 1/2 odds of dying as compared to 1/4. I'm just going to say it outright: my theory was that Mat is D-G, which I now think is incorrect, but C2 me was sufficiently persuaded of that that TJ and I were talking about not voting for those we thought were D-G because they can't be Sja. As a result, I swap from Mat to Araris.

TJ goes onto Elk for reasons. Elk unvotes because he wanted a tie and is not interested now that there is none to be had. Araris claims BAM, which, well :P Mic drop.

@Chantara has a weird vote on Elk that I'd like to hear more about.

Elan (3): Kas<1>, Kas<7>, Elk<3>, Mat<4>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (2): Kas<3>, Illwei<2>, Tani<2>, Mat<2>, Kas<6>
Illwei (1): Kas<2>, Elan, Kas<4>, Elk<1>
Tani (1): Mat<1>, Araris<2>, Mat<3>
Kas (0): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az<1>
Mat (1): Drought, Kas<5>
Elk (2): TJ, Chantara
xino (0): Elk<2>

Elk tries to self-pres by getting a CC train on xino. TJ and I are panic-PMing and I unvote Araris and slam a vote on Elan while I try to think. Elk likes the Elan train better and hits that train instead. Note that this gives us a tie between Elan-Araris-Tani. Mat's vote on Elan protects both Araris and Tani at this point in time: Mat is no longer under threat as I've pulled off him.

But given Mat was okay with endangering Tani earlier, I think it's safest to read it as protecting Araris.

Illwei shows up to protect Araris, and Elk decides to peel off Elan for some reason and to go back onto Illwei, giving us a 2-2-2 tie between Elan, himself, and Illwei. I want to highlight this because let's look at the state of play after Illwei and I make the last vote shifts onto Elk:

Elan (1): Kas<1>, Kas<7>, Elk<3>, Mat<4>
Drought (0): Araris<1>
Araris (2): Kas<3>, Illwei<2>, Tani<2>, Mat<2>, Kas<6>
Illwei (2): Kas<2>, Elan, Kas<4>, Elk<1>, Elk<4>
Tani (1): Mat<1>, Araris<2>, Mat<3>
Kas (0): Illwei<1>, Tani<1>, Az<1>
Mat (1): Drought, Kas<5>
Elk (4): TJ, Chantara, Illwei<3>, Kas<8>
xino (0): Elk<2>

That is a lot of end-cycle activity and volatility, and mostly Village-directed. (Again, I'm just going to assume I'm Village in my analysis because I'm tired and CBA to go figure out the alternatives, someone else can do the 'what if Evil Kas' reasoning.) I feel like it is true that Sja is not in too much danger here. If Sja was, the last flurry of votes should not have come from Villagers, and I at least had no existing PMs with anyone not TJ, who was another Villager.

Unless, of course, Tani is on Team Sja. Let's try to assume that for now.

Supposition: Tani is Team Sja

The votejack was meant to save Tani/someone on Team Evil and was placed at some point in the cycle, clearly a decent time before Mat made the vote shift to Elk. This does make it a bit weird that Mat-Tani would be teammates given that Mat had kept his vote on Tani for quite a bit, and even returned to her. 

I find this a strange analysis. It is true that Tani was in danger for a decent chunk of the cycle but the odds ranged from 1/2 to as much as 1/4 or 1/5, and then 1/3 again. This may not be bad odds: also consider that if Tani is saved, the Elim team has to forgo a conversion or a kill. Illwei, too, was on 2 votes for decent parts of the cycle, but by the end, had fallen off: Illwei only really came back under threat because Elk swung by and wanted a tie.

At slightly over two hours to rollover, this was our votecount from Ash:

Quote
  • Araris Valerian (3): Illwei, Tani, Matrim's Dice
  • Matrim's Dice (2): Droughtbringer, Kasimir
  • Illwei (2): Elandera, Elkanah
  • Tani (1): Araris Valerian

Tani would not have been under threat, and shifting the vote to Illwei would have caused an Araris-Illwei tie. 

But at around fifteen minutes to rollover, we were looking at this official votecount:

Quote
  • Tani (2): Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian
  • Elkanah (2): |TJ|, Chantara
  • Araris Valerian (2): Tani, Illwei
  • xinoehp512 (1): Elkanah
  • Elandera (1): Kasimir
  • Illwei (1): Elandera

Note that Ash forgot about Drought's vote on Mat, but we can ignore this :P 

Moving a vote from Tani to Illwei would have caused an Elk-Araris-Illwei tie. Maybe someone wanted RNGesus to decide. I don't really see this as being an Elim move: why not just swing the vote to Araris? (Unless, of course, Araris is Elim, in this possibility.) But this leads us to a bigger absurdity because Araris has claimed BAM, which means we must assume Tani is Nergaoul, and Araris actually Sja. (We've been down this line of reasoning before: I have a moderate credence that Araris is actually BAM.)

Moreover, tanking a 1/3 or 1/4 tie is no big deal, when balanced against the prospect of losing either a conversion or a kill. And we've established that Sja prioritises conversions and kills - this is precisely why Sja converted C1. I think that we have stronger reason to believe, therefore, that the votejacker (i.e. Nergaoul) was Village C2, and weaker reason to believe that Team Sja did not come under serious threat C2.

tldr; I think we have stronger reason to believe that Nergaoul was Village C2, and weaker reason to believe that Team Sja did not come under serious threat C2. Note also that Tani and Araris (whether converted or not) are unlikely to both be Evil together. A votejack here turns the Tani-Elk-Araris tie to an Elk-Araris-Illwei tie, which doesn't make too much sense, especially when all the last vote changes came from Villagers.

So suppose we are looking for Sja or one member of Team Sja from those who are not under threat: <Mat*, Araris*, xino, Elan, Kas*, Chantara, Az, Drought, TUO, Squirrel.> I asterisk Mat and Araris because they were under pressure at at least one point in the cycle. I suppose the same is true of myself.

Compare that to the C1 list: <Chantara, Mint, Drought, TUO, Az> set, potentially <xino, Tani>

This...is not so helpful, and Araris and Elan have been removed on the assumption that Araris is BAM and truthful, though if we are looking for any Elim then it becomes trickier. 

I don't want to LG80 Chantara again, and I think I can see why she voted for Elk, though I'd like to hear from her directly. That vote is odd, though I also feel like an Elim is just better off not voting at that point; the opposite being that Chantara wants to appear active enough, but had no real horse in the race. This was right after the Araris mic drop, and the Elk train was safe enough. For now, I lean a bit more towards the view an Elim would've just stayed away instead of trying. Squirrel is promising engagement and I don't really want to kill him off as he's becoming more active so I'm a bit wait-and-see on Squirrel. Az seems to be doing something interesting, and I hope we get a response there fast. Really, the issue with going among the semi-actives is that any vote feels like a bit of a crapshoot in the dark, which can be psychologically unnerving.

I'm going to go on TUO, for no particular reason than that he clearly wants someone to take the bait, and if we don't ask about that cryptic post, we are probably never going to get. I am currently indifferent between Mat and Drought, especially since I don't think my hypothesis on Mat pans out anymore, and Mat is sufficiently in the lead we don't need me to pad it for now.

If you're reading this analysis longpost, I'm sorry for you as it feels like I've gone in circles without too much progress, but I'm going to throw it here in the hopes someone can bounce something off it and give me something to chew on and make more sense with. :P

Doubleposting because this is hella long.

Edited by Kasimir
justification
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TUO

10 hours ago, Droughtbringer said:

@Matrim's Dice I still haven't seen anything from you that gives us any more read into your thoughts or anything so my vote will be thrown onto you. 

Reads:

Village:

  • Kasimir- A for effort at this point lol. The Illwei/Kas thunderdome I still believe was v/v and there's no reason to have converted Kas at this point.
  • Squirrel- Maybe it's stupid to put them so high but I read a pinch-hitter coming in willing to read past cycles for analysis very village. An elim would have zero incentive to do that.
  • Drought- I don't know what 'gut' dislike people are having with Drought tbh, their posts seem jsut fine to me. Maybe I should sus whoever said that most recently? Wasn't it Squirrel? Hmm.
  • Araris- This one is light light because I don't like his push on me (I suppose the same could be said for Drought because I know I've given thoughts since his last post) but in a way I don't think an elim would push me as hard as he is with the reasons that he has.

Everyone else is varying levels of null/elim. Nothing anyone has said has struck me as elimmy or partnery or whatever but I don't like the people just hanging on to the edges. TUO and Elan are probably worst for me, with xino and Tani close behind (there is no specific reason for this)

I won't be on for the rest of the cycle, I have things irl starting in ~30 minutes that go till rollover.

I'm Re-Shephir. Please don't kill me.

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12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:
  • Drought- I don't know what 'gut' dislike people are having with Drought tbh, their posts seem jsut fine to me. Maybe I should sus whoever said that most recently? Wasn't it Squirrel? Hmm.

It's a-me, Kario!

But no, seriously. In short, I feel like if Sja were going for active Village cred play, C2 Drought is a good place to be. C2 Drought seems to say a lot without saying very much: his reasoning on you C2 more or less condemns Tani and is a reason to go for the quiet ones as well; his vote is extremely stable which can be of concern in a high-volatility end-cycle with significant Village voteswing to the end, Drought reads as exceptionally conciliatory (which is ironic, I recognise this), but could also be a player who does not want to get into any fights because fights draw attention and get you killed. And there's his positioning against the me-train, which he half-takes-back later, and he votes on a side-train which later gets big.

Quote

I'm not a fan of the lynch on Tani, there's almost no reason to it, and I have a pretty good gut read on Araris at the moment. My gut is leaning elim on Illwei, but it is likely because of their playstyle. Kasimir I could see lynching, but I think that just the amount of discussion that he brings up (both with his posts and with his existence at this point) is useful. I don't want to vote on anyone who hasn't posted much as I'd like to both get more reads on them and let them play a bit before we murder them...

Defends Tani and Araris, but there's a lot of hedging.

I get this, and it #feelsbad to lynch when a player isn't present, but if we don't vote on them, they don't speak up, and it's hard to get reads, gut or otherwise, that way. It's a Catch-22.

But it's worth noting this isn't too off from LG79 Drought, at least at a brief glance. So I honestly don't feel terribly strongly about this read, and I feel we are partly suffering from the 'lynch actives' bias Village always has, which is why I went back to try to do some analysis. If I were to talk certainty, yeah, I'd be willing to lynch you and Drought - or well, before you claimed anyway. As I mentioned, I think that it's psychologically tough to go for a quieter player because it feels like a crapshoot in the dark, and there's the illusion of more information with talkative players (yes, sort of, but also, if we're not reading the data right, it doesn't matter, does it?)

In a way, I see the vote on you and Drought to be more or less identical - it's a "well, could fit the profile" kind of thing.

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm Re-Shephir. Please don't kill me.

Who did you go for C1, by the way?

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5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Who did you go for C1, by the way?

I made xino target himself, hoping to hit Sja while attacking :P There are a few ways to interpret his vote being gone. Either he's manip and self targeted (making my ability useless) or he's Sja who someone else manipped off of to prove they have a role. (Edit: Or he didn't take an action and someone manipped off of him to prove they have a role) I didn't take this as clearing since there was room for doubt, and he's a low-profile conversion target.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I made xino target himself, hoping to hit Sja while attacking :P There are a few ways to interpret his vote being gone. Either he's manip and self targeted (making my ability useless) or he's Sja who someone else manipped off of to prove they have a role. (Edit: Or he didn't take an action and someone manipped off of him to prove they have a role) I didn't take this as clearing since there was room for doubt, and he's a low-profile conversion target.

Ah yeah my bad re-read this cycle, Squirrel has it too. But I'm definitely guilty of complaining I have an eh read of Drought so I felt I should own up.

Nice, and yeah I'd agree. Xino targeting someone else makes a bit less sense anyway since there was no outcome to be changed, and it's not something that exonerates him from being Sja. But I think - provided you were not told your action failed - xino took an action. If xino was roleblocked, or if xino failed to take an action, Ash has ruled you would be told your action failed.

Which means:

1. Is anyone going to own up to xino's soothed voted?

2. Is anyone going to own up to roleblocking xino or Mat?

Edited to add:

22 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Yes, if the duplicator target doesn’t use an ability - whether roleblocked or just didn’t submit an action - then Re-Shephir won’t do anything. Note this is a little different than the action “failing” because Re-Shephir isn’t told if they actually duplicated the action, just whether they successfully used their Re-Shephir ability (ie got RB’d or not). Mainly because Sja-anat does use an ability but can’t be duplicated, and there’s already BAM.

Ah no. No on this implying xino took an action. Here's the relevant WoA:

Quote
  • Re-Shephir doesn't learn whether she duplicated an action or what she duplicated, just whether she successfully used her ability / whether she got roleblocked or not. (Because the only action she can't duplicate is Sja-anat's Conversion or a no action).

From the C2 post. So no, we just want to know if there's a roleblock claim on Mat C1.

Edited by Kasimir
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1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

If you're reading this analysis longpost, I'm sorry for you as it feels like I've gone in circles without too much progress, but I'm going to throw it here in the hopes someone can bounce something off it and give me something to chew on and make more sense with. :P

Don't worry- if anything it made me feel better now that I know people who have been in the whole game are just as lost as I am. ;)

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

That is a lot of end-cycle activity and volatility, and mostly Village-directed. (Again, I'm just going to assume I'm Village in my analysis because I'm tired and CBA to go figure out the alternatives, someone else can do the 'what if Evil Kas' reasoning.) I feel like it is true that Sja is not in too much danger here. If Sja was, the last flurry of votes should not have come from Villagers, and I at least had no existing PMs with anyone not TJ, who was another Villager.

I generally agree - I think an elim team would prioritize protecting Sja, since that's their strongest role.

That said, I think the C1 convert could be in there - obviously Sja wouldn't risk her life to save her convert, but she would at least try to get someone else out.

If we assume the convert is under threat, Sja would probably be one of the more opportunistic votes from people who themselves weren't under threat.

If we assume the convert and Sja weren't in trouble, then the end of cycle voters were probably vil because elims wouldn't care about which one got voted out.

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2 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

If we assume the convert and Sja weren't in trouble, then the end of cycle voters were probably vil because elims wouldn't care about which one got voted out.

Issue is that depending on how you define end of cycle, most of the activity comes from me, Illwei, Elk, TJ, possibly Chantara, and Mat. That's 3/6 we know are Villagers, due to flips, if we put me as a ?. Extreme end of cycle just involves Elk, me, and Illwei, but without that activity, it would likely have been Elan getting lynched, and we are 2/3 Villager there minimally because of Elk and Illwei's flips. (4/6 and 3/3 if we assume I'm Village, which my analysis up there definitely did.)

So I think it's easier to work from what we know, which is that at least half, if not majority, of end of cycle voters have flipped Village, and ask what that says.

8 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

If we assume the convert is under threat, Sja would probably be one of the more opportunistic votes from people who themselves weren't under threat.

I think if we assume this scenario, then we're left with one of Tani-Araris-Mat being the convert. Illwei and Elk have flipped Village, and most of the countertrains seemed to be motivated by both Araris and Mat trying to avoid getting lynched.

I've already broken my brain trying to work out if one of them is Elim. I'd like to hear from more people :P 

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6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Last post of the turn

@Araris Valerian @Droughtbringer

Kas, I was told I was not roleblocked. 

Yeah, I see. Now I gotta decide if I want to stay on you as a possible convert or think about which of the quiet folks is secretly Sja.

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11 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Weird that the two people I ask for night actions disappear.

 

TUO

?

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Hey everyone, I apologize for being so inactive. I’ve had some RL stuff come up. it’s taking all my energy and I just can’t keep up with this game. I’ve asked for a pinch-hitter to step in for me. 

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