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Hello. 

I am alive, but not vibrant.

So let this be a deterrent. 

Fire in the night.

I saw that which wasn't right. 

'Anat was not there

But 'Rash was there to dare. 

For Wei has died, 

Killed by grass stained by blood not for my eyes

So I beckon,

Sja await your reckon.

The 'Rash (k)night has come. 

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3 hours ago, Droughtbringer said:

Sja possibly has a 3 person team at this point meaning we have a 3:8 ratio in the worst parity situation. 

Yeah, huh. That means if we misexe and 2 night kills go through on villagers, the game will end. Assuming Sja made a second convert. If Sja did convert again, I'd guess 2 charges left, based on the unjustified guess that roughly 1/2 of the players are unmade.

I'm going to reread the whole game tomorrow and get some reads out. I'll likely ignore Kas and Elan for the most part, since they aren't Sja, and that narrows the POE, despite them being decent conversion targets (well, debatable depending on how much porch-off-getting you can put up with from Kas :P).

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13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, huh. That means if we misexe and 2 night kills go through on villagers, the game will end. Assuming Sja made a second convert. If Sja did convert again, I'd guess 2 charges left, based on the unjustified guess that roughly 1/2 of the players are unmade.

I'm going to reread the whole game tomorrow and get some reads out. I'll likely ignore Kas and Elan for the most part, since they aren't Sja, and that narrows the POE, despite them being decent conversion targets (well, debatable depending on how much porch-off-getting you can put up with from Kas :P).

1. Off! Off my porch! 

2. This seems to boil down to: cannot afford mislynch, and also, if we think Araris is still Village, Re-Shepir should duplicate his scan. Figuring out if Araris is Village matters in that we don't want to duplicate a kill instead. If uncertain, Re-Shepir should hold fire. 

Cher cannot kill on an Odd cycle so we just have R-S to factor in this time around. Along with any role-blockers. Role-blockers are generally good for us, with the worst case being that they hit Sja and we get a null result. 

Edited to add: @Ashbringer, can Re-shepir make a player self-target? Because if so, it'd be good insurance — can't stop the Elim kill but can ensure the Elim dies as well. 

Edited by Kasimir
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8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This seems to boil down to: cannot afford mislynch, and also, if we think Araris is still Village, Re-Shepir should duplicate his scan. Figuring out if Araris is Village matters in that we don't want to duplicate a kill instead. If uncertain, Re-Shepir should hold fire. 

Thoughts:

It may be beneficial for araris to claim the scan publicly so R-S doesn't duplicate the scan on the same player, but that could run into issues if there's rebel roleblockers.

Ideally the Black Fisher can set up PMs for araris and R-S so they can coordinate privately, but that requires more role coordination than I think is feasible.

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2 hours ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

 

Thoughts:

It may be beneficial for araris to claim the scan publicly so R-S doesn't duplicate the scan on the same player, but that could run into issues if there's rebel roleblockers.

Ideally the Black Fisher can set up PMs for araris and R-S so they can coordinate privately, but that requires more role coordination than I think is feasible.

Agreed about feasibility issues with D-G but why not reverse it? 

Come to a thread consensus of 1-2 players and R-S picks from them, Araris picks anyone sensible not them. 

Since R-S can redirect a player to self-target, I like the idea of R-S redirecting players to self-target better, honestly. It doesn't require us to guess if Araris is honest or unconverted (I don't feel there's much advantage to converting, but still.) As long as R-S is still Village, this gives us a chance of taking out the non-Sja Elim if R-S aims right. It may also serve as a mild kill deterrent or force Sja to take the kill instead if it is crucial to the Elim team that the kill goes through. 

@Ashbringer — Apologies as I know you've clarified this previously, but can I confirm if R-S can redirect such that Sja kills herself? 

Edited to add: Rebel roleblockers are an issue anyway, e.g if Araris is roleblocked, then I suspect R-S duplication would fail because there is no action to duplicate. @Ashbringer, can you confirm this?

I got pulled in for weekend OT. I'll come back in a bit for analysis and voting but may be busier than I expected. Currently my vote is for Tani[/color] 

Edited by Kasimir
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Okay, so we know for certain that Sja converted C1, as that is the only way to have 3 deaths last turn. We also know that if Sja converted an unmade C1, that player will not have been able to use their role action. Might be helpful, might not. 

Then we can assume a couple of things as well. The first is that Sja wouldn't have converted Kas C1 (but could have C2), and the second, related thing, is that Sja converted someone C2.

We also know for certain (or I do, at least) that Kas and Elandera are not Sja.

Sja's number one priority during C1 would be to not get voted out, and thus lose 1-2 conversions. Every one else can afford to be a little less cautious.

I'm going to hesitantly say that I don't actually think Tani or Xino is Sja. The reason being that they were both pretty bold about voting for me for something that could easily backfire and draw attention back to them. Their later vote switches also seem kind of erratic, and neither of them sticks out too me as going for gambits while elim. Illwei picked up on the same thing I think.

Mat started off the cycle with a self-vote, and I could definitely see Sja-aMat doing this. It's a little risky, but it can scare away players that don't want to stack votes early in the turn, especially the sorts of players who tend to follow other players reasoning later in the cycle. Joining my votes on Tani could be an attempt at pocketing me, although this plays out weirdly, since apparently I was also one of Mat's strongest suspicions. He also has claimed to not be vanilla, and was adamant about defending himself.

Having reread Drought's large post C2, I'm honestly unconvinced of village intent. A significant motivation behind doing a thread reread should be finding someone to vote on, IMO. But Drought is just sort of positive/neutral on everyone he talks about. Drought defends Kas, which could be Sja aiming for village cred if Kas flips. I do like the vote on Mat later on, given what I've read so far.

From what little we have, I don't currently think Az is Sja. Placing a third vote on Kas without much justification is odd, and IMO doesn't fit with Sja.

We hear a little from Chantara but not anything really helpful. Easy Sja hiding place.

Really nothing from TUO or Mint/Squirrel.

So my Sja list from high to low would probably be Mat, all of (Chantara, TUO, Squirrel), Az, Drought, Xino, Tani. The last ones there could flex a bit.

In terms of converts, it's hard to say. Drought might be my strongest candidate for convert+Sja chance, under the assumption that the elims wouldn't covert someone who has been minimally active (I'd put Chantara, Squirrel, TUO here for sure, and maybe Az, Xino, and Tani). If Mat is Sja, then I wouldn't be surprised at a C2 Kas conversion.

C1 conversions seem like Mat/Tani/Az and maybe Drought, just going off activity levels and our flips. If Sja is in the low-active group, then I would be entirely surprised if Elk was a conversion target C2, and I think TJ as well could be there. So there might not be a C2 convert due to deaths. If there is, I'd probably say that Drought/Chantara/Kas. 

Basically, I think Mat sort of fits everywhere as an elim, and Drought is probably overall second. And if we have a low-active Sja, there might still be just 2 elims.

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7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Ashbringer — Apologies as I know you've clarified this previously, but can I confirm if R-S can redirect such that Sja kills herself? 

Edited to add: Rebel roleblockers are an issue anyway, e.g if Araris is roleblocked, then I suspect R-S duplication would fail because there is no action to duplicate. @Ashbringer, can you confirm this?

Yes, Re-Shephir can duplicate the Elim kill onto the Elim that used it. Sja-anat would only die if they were out of charges, though. (And actually used the kill, but that’s only to fulfil the “self”.)

Yes, if the duplicator target doesn’t use an ability - whether roleblocked or just didn’t submit an action - then Re-Shephir won’t do anything. Note this is a little different than the action “failing” because Re-Shephir isn’t told if they actually duplicated the action, just whether they successfully used their Re-Shephir ability (ie got RB’d or not). Mainly because Sja-anat does use an ability but can’t be duplicated, and there’s already BAM.

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20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

In terms of converts, it's hard to say. Drought might be my strongest candidate for convert+Sja chance, under the assumption that the elims wouldn't covert someone who has been minimally active (I'd put Chantara, Squirrel, TUO here for sure, and maybe Az, Xino, and Tani). If Mat is Sja, then I wouldn't be surprised at a C2 Kas conversion.

C1 conversions seem like Mat/Tani/Az and maybe Drought, just going off activity levels and our flips. If Sja is in the low-active group, then I would be entirely surprised if Elk was a conversion target C2, and I think TJ as well could be there. So there might not be a C2 convert due to deaths. If there is, I'd probably say that Drought/Chantara/Kas. 

Still OTing, so bandwidth is low, but I'm committing to returning to do vote pattern analysis before rollover and place a proper vote.

That being said, as a quick interjection—TJ and I actually had a PM dispute over whether Drought counted as having a decent activity level or not. I said I thought he did; TJ disagreed and asked me to go through C1 again. Activity level for Drought in C1, unless I'm mistaken, is low, and Drought's recent track record would not necessarily be confidence-inspiring (I've last played LG79 with him, someone else tell me if there's a game I've missed with Drought inside.)

My mental image of Drought is based off the mid-SE period but there's a chance I've just confused him with then-Devo's play profile entirely. 

I'm curious why you'd put Drought as a potential C1 candidate, if so, or Az. Tani or xino seem less of a gamble to a Sja working off C1 info and the assumption she'd like a reasonably active teammate. I feel like you're also overlooking Elan as a potential convert. She was minimally active C1 but anyone not Chantara (I think?) is likely aware that Elan could be trusted to not go inactive on an Elim team.

On the assumption that you remain unconverted and honest (for even a converted Araris might decide there is no harm in telling the truth here), Elan would not be Sja but nothing says Elan can't be converted. Same logic for me since all you're attesting to is that I'm not Sja, really.

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Having reread Drought's large post C2, I'm honestly unconvinced of village intent. A significant motivation behind doing a thread reread should be finding someone to vote on, IMO. But Drought is just sort of positive/neutral on everyone he talks about. Drought defends Kas, which could be Sja aiming for village cred if Kas flips. I do like the vote on Mat later on, given what I've read so far.

This is in a sense my gut feel off his post, as I've mentioned, but I also hesitate as I don't think Sja/converts gain as much Village cred this game from flips, due to the presence of conversions. That being said, players may default to standard game patterns so maybe that's what's going on here.

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

From what little we have, I don't currently think Az is Sja. Placing a third vote on Kas without much justification is odd, and IMO doesn't fit with Sja.

My disagreement largely comes from the fact that this seems to be how Az plays to a large extent, so I don't know if Sja!Az would be motivated to change his playstyle since that could also be pretty indicative. But I don't feel strongly about Az beyond "potential Sja hiding place."

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

In terms of converts, it's hard to say. Drought might be my strongest candidate for convert+Sja chance, under the assumption that the elims wouldn't covert someone who has been minimally active (I'd put Chantara, Squirrel, TUO here for sure, and maybe Az, Xino, and Tani). If Mat is Sja, then I wouldn't be surprised at a C2 Kas conversion.

Question: why is Drought your strongest candidate, and but your vote on Mat? If the probabilities on your calculus shift to Drought, why go for Mat instead?

Edited to add:

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Yes, Re-Shephir can duplicate the Elim kill onto the Elim that used it. Sja-anat would only die if they were out of charges, though. (And actually used the kill, but that’s only to fulfil the “self”.)

Yes, if the duplicator target doesn’t use an ability - whether roleblocked or just didn’t submit an action - then Re-Shephir won’t do anything. Note this is a little different than the action “failing” because Re-Shephir isn’t told if they actually duplicated the action, just whether they successfully used their Re-Shephir ability (ie got RB’d or not). Mainly because Sja-anat does use an ability but can’t be duplicated, and there’s already BAM.

Cheers :P Then I'm more in favour of duplicating the Elim kill back onto the Elim via self-targeting. An extra scan helps us find Sja but we'd still have to take her out, and still have to gamble on Araris's allegiances over one cycle or another. Return to sender doesn't harm anyone not an Elim making a kill, and helps us - if aimed well - by directly removing an Elim and kicking back Team Sja's progress to win-con.

Edited by Kasimir
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26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question: why is Drought your strongest candidate, and but your vote on Mat? If the probabilities on your calculus shift to Drought, why go for Mat instead?

I think I ended up revising that opinion by the end of the post but didn't say it, mostly because I'd hedged on the opinion in the first place. There's a lot of guesswork that goes into my suspicion of Drought, while my suspicion of Mat is mainly based on my reads of his posts and votes. I'd be perfectly happy voting either of them out, but then I also think Mat is a fair bit more likely to be Sja than Drought, so there is more value in voting him out.

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26 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

Wait how did I not notice this

I legit just thought you felt she was a convert rather than Sja.

55 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think I ended up revising that opinion by the end of the post but didn't say it, mostly because I'd hedged on the opinion in the first place. There's a lot of guesswork that goes into my suspicion of Drought, while my suspicion of Mat is mainly based on my reads of his posts and votes. I'd be perfectly happy voting either of them out, but then I also think Mat is a fair bit more likely to be Sja than Drought, so there is more value in voting him out.

Agree it's more practicable to go after Sja and to find Sja if we can, but that being said, if we absolutely need an Elim removed, I'm starting to think it depends, since the win con doesn't matter on Sja's parity. Then again, if we burn enough of her charges, she can't convert, so overall, yeah, I'd be happier to go for a stronger Sja candidate. (I know, I know, later...Still OTing and typing up a report so I can't spend more than a little attention here.)

I don't want to bank on R-S making a clutch save to take out an Elim but you never know.

26 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

Can someone give me a rundown about drought's playstyle? Posts feel off to me but I've never played with them before

Join the club. Drought's been gone for quite a while and back recently (I think LG79 was his first returning game?) so I don't really know anyone can give you a good read on now!Drought. I've only just discovered my memories of Drought - based off QF29 - are kind of off, too.

In the games I've played with him, Drought hasn't been a super active player. His C2 posts aren't too different from his LG79 D4 posts, or that's my impression from a cursory re-read. I've linked them here for you to have a reference point - just the first of several, but if you scroll down, you can catch anything by Charcoal Hyena, which is Drought. Drought gets lynched that cycle and doesn't say anything the cycles before (had a quiet D1 I believe) so it doesn't really matter if you're just looking at D4.

Edited to add: He doesn't get lynched, my bad, no one did, what a clusterchull... But anyway he dies that Night so same difference.

Edited by Kasimir
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2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Mat started off the cycle with a self-vote, and I could definitely see Sja-aMat doing this. It's a little risky, but it can scare away players that don't want to stack votes early in the turn, especially the sorts of players who tend to follow other players reasoning later in the cycle. Joining my votes on Tani could be an attempt at pocketing me, although this plays out weirdly, since apparently I was also one of Mat's strongest suspicions. He also has claimed to not be vanilla, and was adamant about defending himself.

My self vote was randomly generated, in which I stuck the numbers 1-14 in a generator and it spat out a 1. That’s NAI.

I might have ‘joined’ you on Tani, but I clued into the fact I might have been voting them way before that with my dumb Sja!Tani converted Illwei hot take which obviously aged horribly (I didn’t really believe this; see me saying Kas/Illwei v/v later) but it wasn’t a pocket attempt since it wasn’t prompted by you.

Why do you think you were one of my strongest suspicions? That never was the case and I never said anything to make it seem as such, or at least I didn’t mean to. You were a solid null through C1 and I voted/sussed Tani/xino for voting you. I didn’t have much of a stance on you until you claimed though.

And yeah, I’m not vanilla. But I’m not Sja either. I don’t want to have to claim.

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21 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My self vote was randomly generated, in which I stuck the numbers 1-14 in a generator and it spat out a 1. That’s NAI.

Excepting that we have to take your word for that, so it could just as easily have been a ploy. I’m following Quinn’s school of thought here, which looks at votes and mostly ignores the reasoning given.

23 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why do you think you were one of my strongest suspicions?

You were happy to vote for me last cycle, rather than to try and engineer a new train (since Tani wasn’t going to die, and you didn’t want to vote Illwei). 

But this and/or any pocketing doesn’t really matter all that much. That was just me trying to make sense of how elim!you might have done those things.

Also, if you aren’t Sja, I think you would have been a decent convert for either of the two previous cycles, since you have a strong presence in thread, but haven’t been suspected, and apparently also have a role.

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1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I legit just thought you felt she was a convert rather than Sja.

Oh

See that would have made sense if the posts I was looking at weren't from c1 lol

Edit: 

Wait I just realized something

I can skip reading C1 and just read C2+ and look for associatives

 

Edited by Squirrelwatcher
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28 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Excepting that we have to take your word for that, so it could just as easily have been a ploy. I’m following Quinn’s school of thought here, which looks at votes and mostly ignores the reasoning given.

…Reasoning tends to be pretty important

And like yeah, I just decided to early C1 self vote in some ploy that… does what, exactly? Scare people from voting me? Because that makes sense?

28 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You were happy to vote for me last cycle, rather than to try and engineer a new train (since Tani wasn’t going to die, and you didn’t want to vote Illwei). 

I was happy to vote you over me. That literally is the only thing there. I had a village read on Illwei, and a null read on you, so obviously I’ll go for you out of us three. Tani wasn’t going to die, like you said, and any other flyers under the radar wouldn’t have been killed either because it was too close to rollover to start a countertrain.

30 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, if you aren’t Sja, I think you would have been a decent convert for either of the two previous cycles, since you have a strong presence in thread, but haven’t been suspected, and apparently also have a role.

Haven’t been suspected

Lol you think I haven’t been suspected

Anyway, you’re right, I would have been a decent convert. But I haven’t been converted, yet. I think if it comes to the endgame and I’m alive you guys absolutely should kill me but I think the elims are likely to beat you to that. At this point Sja probably has not a lot of charges left and she’d likely rather save them as an extra life than convert someone who’s probably going to be exed anyway.

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I'm done with work, it's 5.40AM, and I need sleep.

I am not going to do proper vote pattern analysis until I have sleep. 

My Tani vote though - just to say a bit more about it. I haven't looked too closely but it's just running off the basis that it's a really...involved effort to get Illwei killed or save Tani. It's not implausible since enough people voted for Illwei and Elk and Chantara expressed uncertainty about Illwei (remember that Illwei looks like the candidate for the Cher kill - and yes I realised I've mispelled Chemoarish's name enough times but whatever I dub thee Cher) but I tend to treat involved efforts as being more likely to stem from informed parties than uninformed, uncoordinated parties. So, from Elims rather than blundering Villagers.

Given at least three or four players were tied for a decent chunk of the second half of the cycle, including Tani and Illwei, the vote manip also seems to stem from...huh. Actually, no, yeah, I change my mind. Tani. Unless we're looking at a Tani/Mat or a Tani/Araris team (recall that there could be only one convert on C1 at most!), I feel as though Team Sja has no reason to aggressively use vote manipulation. 

The theory here is as follows: we know Elk and Illwei are Village, so for the Elims to have vote manipulated, they must have felt under threat. A 1/3 or 1/4 chance at being lynched is not very threatening, so for the vote manip to be called for, we're looking at at least two Elims up for the lynch. But there cannot be more than two Elims, due to conversions, so we are looking for at most two Elims up for the lynch.

So, suppose we are looking at a Tani/Araris team. This would require Araris to be lying about his role - otherwise, they simply don't have the vote manip capabilities here with Sja and BAM. (Of course, it's also possible that we do have a Tani/Araris team who were just going to shrug and roll the dice at the lynch. But 2/3 is bad odds so I doubt it. 2/4 less so so maybe. In any case, I need to recheck how willing Araris is to lynch Tani as compared to Mat from C2.) The main proof we have of Araris being BAM is the fact he scanned me, but that's...not very sophisticated, since I had already claimed stormspren and anyone on Team Sja would know I'd have to be stormspren. The real question is Elan but I'm not necessarily going to get on the 'out Elan' train here. 

There's a possibility that Araris lied and that he's not BAM, but this would require the real BAM to have been converted C1. I can't see BAM remaining quiet about it otherwise, though maybe real BAM is one of our less active players. But that's one hell of a risky play since Unmade roles are unique so I wouldn't put high credence on those options.

Long story short, a Tani/Araris team just doesn't really pan out if we're speculating Elim involvement.

Let's look at our other main possibility: a Tani/Mat team. On this account, one of them is a vote manipulator, and one of them is Sja. I do find this possible, based on our current information. We know there are more than nine players, so the Unmade are guaranteed to be in this game. If we eliminate the Nine, we are left with five players. We know one of them is a stormspren (me), and another is a nightspren (Illwei.) In fact, we know that it was likely Nergaoul who targeted Tani—because smokespren can add or remove votes but can't shift votes. Appealing to Ockham's Razor here, it's more likely to be Nergaoul action. But that's an aside and I'm tired and rambling. The point is that if we postulate the vote manipulation was due to enemy action, then I feel as though it might to some extent imply a Tani/Mat team.

But the thing is, that's not all the possibilities. It could, I think, also be Village Nergaoul extremely distrusting Illwei. And it could also be an Elim Nergaoul looking to sew chaos - but I feel as though the more promising route would have been to try to save Illwei and lynch someone else. The fact that Illwei was not likely Elim killed shows interest in converting Illwei or leaving Illwei alive to absorb suspicion. But a better route, if they had the capability, would be to pretend to save Illwei and prime us for a potential mislynch or at least a lot of wasted suspicion the next day. Again, unless two Elims were on the lam.

I think my conclusion in my current state of mind is that it makes the most sense for the vote manip to be from Village Nergaoul. There is some possibility that it is from Elim Nergaoul (one of Mat/Tani) trying to save themselves but I feel like if it were Mat, the obvious response would be to vote manip onto Araris once Araris claimed BAM. Maybe Tani wasn't online in time (?) but Mat certainly was. Unless, of course, the Elim team wanted to convert Araris.

I'm going to place a holding vote on Drought and go get some sleep and analyse once I've woken up. Rollovers are...really early in the morning for me anyway so I won't be in danger of not having done vote pattern analysis before it hits. 

Edited to add: Nevermind ignore most of this I'm a bloody moron as Wyrm would say I just remembered you cannot use your role action if you use the Sja kill so for all of this to be true, Sja would have had to put in the kill because vote manip happened meaning Sja's convert couldn't have killed so yeah I'm going to say I think it's Village Nergaoul.

Edited by Kasimir
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