Araris Valerian

Long Game 80: Skaa Tenements

581 posts in this topic

Just a reminder that cycle closes in around 80 minutes, so make sure to get your actions/votes in!

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On 9/6/2021 at 11:38 PM, |TJ| said:

@Illwei, my conclusion is he needs to be more contributional. :P

In all seriousness though, Steel has been an active eliminator before (iirc LG78?), so I don't know why he'd want to try out this method when he's better than that. Still would like to see contributory posts before judging though :P.

Yeah, I'mma complain about this. One of the main reasons to propose a risky but village-helping gambit is to gauge reactions of other players, if they're too enthusiastic about it or if they're too opposing or if they're stoic and poker-face like, the reactions give indications of the players. Archer was like the only person to comment on it smh. 

lmaooooo I keep thinking operation security xDD

So Dalinar has claimed to TUO, Mat and Devotary about their location, and yeah there's a lot of reasons why he might not have been killed as y'all have told like pocketing scope, avoiding suspicion, etc. But there's also the fact the Dalinar could have lied or Dalinar could have been an elim. I donno, I'm finding the 'please don't tell anyone else' statement a bit performative after revealing their location to three players. 

@Devotary of Spontaneity, I understand that you didn't want Illwei to die D1, what's your read on her?

Only one real conclusion here, and it's pretty hedgey. I don't like it.

EDIT: well actually his next post is okay... Town read on Mat, wolf read on Illwei

Mat town read feels kinda out of the blue though, correct me if I'm wrong.

Illwei read is decently consensus but if she's a wolf I'm unsuure? if they can be partnered. I wouldn't say no. I don't know how often wolves bus here

I think it's weird in his post on the previous page, how he says he would have expected to town read someone by now, but then he votes someone else, and asks someone else a question... doesn't engage with the person who he thinks he should be town reading, but isn't

That seems pretty noteworthy to me. Meh. Not confident on this but I still think he's a wolf, tbh

Edited by Esooa
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That vote count is kinda yikes

Sorry for afking the whole day (and I have to leave soon so I'm gonna be afk for several more hours)

Throwing my vote on Archer because I don't want Mat out today

 

 

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The fact that Illwei and Devo are working together is intriguing. I don’t believe Illwei and Squirrel are working together though, because Illwei PMed them D1. Squirrel is probably more skeptical of my voting for them. :P

@ everyone calling Kas low effort: I’m pretty sure it’s 5 am for him right now, so that’s some level of commitment.

Mat starting a wagon instead of joining one is villagey, but we’ll see if that sticks.

Illwei, Devo, I think you're picking up on something I'm actually doing, but mischaracterizing it. I’m tracking my reads and possible pairings and targeting the gaps in my notes. I see little difference between many of the people I have few not e-e pairs for, so it doesn't really matter to me which of them die so long as it brings me towards a fuller chart.

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First, I’m sorry this isn’t coming earlier, my kitchen ceiling started leaking last night and I’ve been dealing with that all morning. Everything is alright, we caught it fast enough, but still waiting for a plumber and dealing with the landlord hasn’t been the most analysis-conducive of days. I’ve been able to lurk about just enough to stay up on conversation.

Second, I'm seeing a lot being said, but not a lot being actually said today. I'm not noticing a lot of evidence for the votes being cast, especially the early votes, somewhat forgivable in that it's D2. In all reality, there just isn't a lot of context to go on besides gut feelings to make claims. So, here's my attempt to read this in the most concrete way possible.

Spoiler

In order from least sus to most sus and the reasons I believe so:

Elkanah (Leek)- unpopular opinion, Elk is V. He didn’t have to share the tenements, but he did. It would have been extremely beneficial for the elims if he were to just keep that to himself, or claim that not enough people claimed their location for him to come to a conclusion. Therefore, I believe he’s v for now.

Frozen Mint (Em)- I could be pocketed on this one, but I feel like Mint isn’t saying anything elim-like, They feel very village to me, 

Kasimir (Airam)- I appreciate that their trying to have a quieter game, but still contribute. I don’t have any evidence they’re elim or village, but I’m leaning more village on them at the moment.

Steeledancer (Steel)- Steel reads more village to me, their unwillingness to engage D1, read to me that they wanted to hold off on just jumping in (I don’t know if that is normal for them), also him noting how busy he is and how he’s getting a pinch-hitter, says to me that he was more distracted by life than a resistance to engaging in the thread in favor of the elim doc. V

Devotary of Spontaneity (Ven)- null 

TJ (Hollaback Atcha)- null

Dalinar Kholin (Van)- null

Tani (Izi)- Still MIA.

TUO (Scorched)- could go either way, but with them and Mat going after each other, either they are on the same side e-e or are on different sides and really just want to jab each other until the other slips up.

Archer (Eron)- I feel like they are siding with Mat a lot today (I’d have to double check yesterday and there just isn’t time for that right now), They could be elim, or I could be reading both wrong.

Squirrelwatcher (Rastan)- The defense of Elk was unique, not something I would expect from an elim, nor someone who voted for Elk D1. They could have stuck with that vote, but don’t seem to want to. It’s interesting, but NAI per se.

Matrim's Dice (Stuart Sampson)- I strongly suspect them, though I have no concrete evidence to point to. Also he’s been showing me in a favorable light, which makes me not want to vote for him, but that could be me being pocketed.

Esooa (Nameless)- I just am not getting over the D1 posts. Those, combined with how much they've backed off today as if to just fly under the radar instead of continuing to risk drawing attention to themselves, rub me the wrong way.

Illwei (Ill Way)- has been coming after me since I voted for them. It took me a long time to realize they were baiting me, but I realized it right after posting last night and haven't had time until now to write up a response. Either Illwei is an elim, or they strongly suspect me. I see you @Illwei, well-played, friend, well-played.

That all said, it may be in poor form (I have no idea), but I'm placing my vote on Illwei.

PS. If I missed anyone, I apologize, it's a long list to try to organize and give reasons for.

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14 minutes ago, Chantara said:

Either Illwei is an elim, or they strongly suspect me. I see you @Illwei, well-played, friend, well-played.

?

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1 hour ago, Esooa said:

Archer town

I'm skimming so not explaining these in this post but ask if you're curious ig

Archer is actually almost certainly town

What made you go from 'Archer's recent question makes sense' -> Archer town -> strong Archer town?

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

I’m tracking my reads and possible pairings and targeting the gaps in my notes. I see little difference between many of the people I have few not e-e pairs for, so it doesn't really matter to me which of them die so long as it brings me towards a fuller chart.

Who are the people you're willing to kill today? Are you trying to keep people alive if you have more not e/e pairs for them?

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2 minutes ago, Esooa said:

?

What would you like explanation on?

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Not gonna quote because im skimming but @Matrim's Dice im not even going to comment on how hypocritical of it is for you to get annoyed at people for suspecting you and MLing you early on while simultaneously suspecting me and trying to get me voted off on d1 and then d2, before then backing off. Im not saying that if you dont genuinely suspect me dont vote on me because of that, but i am saying that i think you dont have good reasons for putting me in your PoE especially after coming off of reading me wrong in about the last 5 games or so. Realistically i think i could still pocket you relatively well as an elim if i wanted to. 

@Chantara, i dont extremely suspect you? Was i baiting you? Probably?? I try to bait about everyone...so...

Also id say that @Kasimir staying up until 5am isnt necessarily commitment to this game :P. 

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3 hours ago, Archer said:

For the record, I haven't told my location to anyone. So if I'm killed, it's because I was scanned or someone swapped my location for a known one. The other puzzling part about the Elk situation is why people claimed to them at all. I'm a little surprised they haven't followed up on that. I feel like elims would offer their locations up first, because they have less reason to fear. At this point, I'm leaning village on Elk, but they're not executing this the way I would have, so it's not a solid read. Personally, I'd say yo alignment scanner, let's try and use this info. 

I thought this was good. Considering things about if he was killed. Also, I liked that he said I'm probably not with illwei; I don't see him saying that if Illwei is an Elim, considering thread consensus, and it just seemed like a villagery thing to pick up regardless

And I liked other stuff from then generally; them town read Dalinar's gambit fitting into a perspective of a towny who says the quoted thing, which would probably be an internal consistency an Elim would gloss over

Etc etc

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2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Not gonna quote because im skimming but @Matrim's Dice im not even going to comment on how hypocritical of it is for you to get annoyed at people for suspecting you and MLing you early on while simultaneously suspecting me and trying to get me voted off on d1 and then d2, before then backing off. Im not saying that if you dont genuinely suspect me dont vote on me because of that, but i am saying that i think you dont have good reasons for putting me in your PoE especially after coming off of reading me wrong in about the last 5 games or so. Realistically i think i could still pocket you relatively well as an elim if i wanted to.

....Fair. Extremely fair. It wasn't fair for me to get annoyed, which I'm not anymore. I guess I could claim that I did back off but like. Yeah. This is fair. Nothing I can say to this.

I don't have a good reason to put you in my PoE, but I also feel like I need to have a PoE and at this point I'm reading 3/4 of the game village and the other 1/4 is largely village read by other people. And I don't doubt that you could pocket me easily either :P.

Tbh I'd be fine with Chantara after their more recent post. More fine I guess than before.

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6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Are you trying to keep people alive if you have more not e/e pairs for them?

Generally, I'm trying to kill people who I have less non e-e pairs for and no village read. That includes Frozen, Squirrel, Essoa then to a lesser extent Chantara, TUO, Devo, Tani. 

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

 

@Chantara, i dont extremely suspect you? Was i baiting you? Probably?? I try to bait about everyone...so...

How many people did you PM about them?

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Just now, Archer said:

How many people did you PM about them?

Wouldntyouliketoknow,Weatherboy.png

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Aight. I was hoping to avoid having to post this, but here's my notes. X means strongly believe not e-e, x means probably not e-e, Y means could be teammates based on a notable interaction. (Image warning if you're on mobile) 

Squirrel Illwei

Spoiler

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Version with explanations:

Spoiler

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25 minutes ago, Esooa said:

I thought this was good. Considering things about if he was killed. Also, I liked that he said I'm probably not with illwei; I don't see him saying that if Illwei is an Elim, considering thread consensus, and it just seemed like a villagery thing to pick up regardless

And I liked other stuff from then generally; them town read Dalinar's gambit fitting into a perspective of a towny who says the quoted thing, which would probably be an internal consistency an Elim would gloss over

Considering if he's killed is fine, but also something an elim who doesn't expect to be killed could say. The second part seems like it would only be relevant if Archer and Illwei are evil together, which is looking unlikely given Illwei's vote this turn.

I don't see how 'elims would offer up their location first' fits with town reading Dalinar for claiming his location to three different people. Is there something else about this part you were referring to?

24 minutes ago, Archer said:

Generally, I'm trying to kill people who I have less non e-e pairs for and no village read. That includes Frozen, Squirrel, Essoa then to a lesser extent Chantara, TUO, Devo, Tani. 

And then Elk and Mat for their own demerits? Not having e-e pairs tends to correspond with not having a lot of connections to other people in general. I prefer going for possible e-e pairs, although admittedly my current vote is not that.

 

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you know what, Illwei is very likely village. I think Devo is looking evil, but I'd rather not make a hasty choice like that 

Mint Illwei

Edit: for future reference, Devo, Chantara, Mat, Essoa and myself are the ones hanging around near rollover. And Illwei, who I'm PMing with right now

Edited by Archer
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Mint

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Okay, cycle is closed! Night will go up in a bit, and remember, no PMing between turns.

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Without any further action from the Ministry, the skaa were somewhat directionless. Accusations were retracted just as rapidly as they were made, and it didn't seem like they would reach a conclusion. Attention briefly turned to Ill Way for her near death the day prior, but as the sun began to set, she and Eron diverted everyone's attention, and then killed Em. After rifling through Em's things, it was determined that she had held a relatively privileged position at a nearby textile mill, but nothing linked her to the Ministry. Now she was just another dead skaa on the streets, body abandoned as the crowd fled the coming mists.

Frozen Mint was a Skaa Overseer! Night 2 has begun and will end at 6:00 PM EDT. Please welcome @Condensation to the game; she is replacing Steel moving forward.

Vote Count:

Spoiler

Frozen Mint (3): Mat, Archer, Illwei
Illwei (2): Chantara, TJ
Archer (2): Devotary, Squirrel
TJ (1): Esooa
Kasimir (1): Mint
Mat (1): TUO
Chantara (1): Kasimir
No Vote (4): Steel, Dalinar, Tani, Elkanah

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @Matrim's Dice (Stuart Sampson)
  2. @Archer (Eron)
  3. @The Unknown Order (Scorched)
  4. Steeldancer/@Condensation (Steel)
  5. @Dalinar Kholin (Avanchel "Van")
  6. @Tani (Izi)
  7. @Kasimir (Airam)
  8. @Chantara (Tara)
  9. @Devotary of Spontaneity (Ven)
  10. @Elkanah (Leek)
  11. @Illwei (Ill Way)
  12. Frozen Mint (Em) Skaa Overseer
  13. @Squirrelwatcher (Rastan)
  14. @|TJ| (Hollaback Atcha)
  15. @Esooa (Nameless)
  16. Azmine_king Skaa Informant

 

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I appreciate the pun, Araris, but I got way too excited at the title thinking that Mint was elim :P.

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I want to speak to the alignment scanner. I have an idea

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10 minutes ago, Archer said:

I want to speak to the alignment scanner. I have an idea

I think this a bad idea I don’t trust you as much anymore lol

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5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think this a bad idea I don’t trust you as much anymore lol

You right. I just made up my notes and decided not to have my teammates (besides Illwei, I guess) help me out there because I'm cocky. And I refrained from drilling down on an easy target because danger seems fun. I read the threads. If I was evil, I would have put together a stronger case for my vote, in a more coherent fashion. Or just kept my vote on you, Mat, because it was defensible. 

Barring an alignment scanner, I'm down to talk to the coinshot, but I'd rather not kill someone just to check if they're good or not

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2 hours ago, Archer said:

You right. I just made up my notes and decided not to have my teammates (besides Illwei, I guess) help me out there because I'm cocky. And I refrained from drilling down on an easy target because danger seems fun. I read the threads. If I was evil, I would have put together a stronger case for my vote, in a more coherent fashion. Or just kept my vote on you, Mat, because it was defensible. 

I mean when you put it that way

I just don’t know who it is then lol at this point I have almost everyone as village 

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Hello! It's me, back again. Forgive me if I take a little while to get it, but the threads aren't nearly as long - I'm sure I'll be in the swing of things soon.

Anything people think I should know?

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