Long Game 80: Skaa Tenements

[Archer]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Archer, you're the only person I know with your playstyle.

If you'd like to borrow it, I can fill you in on a good plan to claim alignment scanner in all your PMs and gauge how people react to find the evils. The key is not letting people know you're doing it to anyone more than just them. 

Also, the underlying assumption of Elk's plan is that they'll survive the game, so that could generate some differences in perspective right there. 

And was that a no on the squirrel hunt? :3

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

And was that a no on the squirrel hunt? :3

Yeah :P.

Illwei is the only candidate I feel remotely good about and I don't really.

[Archer]

Mat is voting Illwei in self-pres. Kas mentioned Illwei PMing them about pressuring Chantara, which mirrors an interaction I had with them, so I believe they have a PM. Chantara voted Illwei D1. Illwei and Elk have talked about their PM in such a way to me that I believe it exists. Frozen Mint voted Illwei D1. Squirrel used the same PM title formatting in their message to me as Illwei did, so I believe Illwei PMed Squirrel. TJ voted Illwei D1. So I think that group isn't e-e with them. 

Esooa and Illwei have bantered in thread. Usually as an elim I ignore my teammates more, so I have them lightly down as not e-e. Steeldancer's annoyance at Mat's pressure seemed villagey to me. Dalinar seems slightly villagey because of their claiming gambit, and not lightly e-e with Devo or TUO because they claimed to them and drew conclusions from it. I'll put myself down as village too. 

That leaves Tani, Devo, and TUO as possible teammates. You could throw Dalinar in there, but again, there's conflict when you try to make a team with Dalinar/TUO/Devo/Mat because of the claiming thing. Ypu could sub in Esooa or Steeldancer (who would make sense because of their vote) and make a more reasonable team. 

Or we could not kill Illwei and just wait for some of those key figures to be scanned or die and they'll be cleared. I think it's worth the wait, because if we do catch e!Illwei, their team should be obvious because they had to bend over backwards to save them D1. 

Squirrel feels like they've been hanging on the fringes. They're eager to talk but their D1 vote was a safe vanity vote (one that won't achieve anything, usually cast later in the cycle) and this cycle they've withheld it until now. 

[Steeldancer]

Ok, just gonna put this in thread real quick. I'm probably going to go ahead with getting a pinch hitter; I just have too much on my plate at the moment, and I have no way to keep up with this game. Sorry. 

[Elkanah]

2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Ok, just gonna put this in thread real quick. I'm probably going to go ahead with getting a pinch hitter; I just have too much on my plate at the moment, and I have no way to keep up with this game. Sorry. 

No worries. Take care of the real stuff, and we'll be here when you come back.

Good luck

[Frozen Mint]

Alright, so I think I've hit everyone. Here's an updated reads list.

• TJ: Village. Engaged with the game and his posts have all felt very reasonable and straightforward.
• TOU: Village. They’ve focused hard on Matrim. e!TOU wouldn’t want e!Matrim lynched. e!TOU also wouldn’t want to become known as someone who led the lynch on v!Matrim because it would funnel a lot of suspicion towards himself.
• Elk: Village. Posted a list of all locations in-thread. I don’t think an elim would have brought attention to themselves like this (especially considering that the elims certainly have shared their locations with one another) and there wasn’t really a benefit for an elim to share this info. Their D2 replies also feel village.
• Chantara: Village. Keeping the same read I had on them D1
• Squirrel: Village / Neutral

 

• Archer: Neutral. Their posts continue to seem helpful and they’re engaged. But those are things that can apply to an elim as well. It’s enough for a D1 village read, since D1s are flimsy. But not enough for D2.
• Illwei: Neutral. Again, their chaotic posts were enough for a D1 vote but not D2. D1 is about making choices based on almost no info.
• Steel: Neutral. Steel’s posts thus far feel NAI.
• Dev: Neutral. Because she’s notoriously hard to figure out lol.
• Dalinar: Neutral.

 

• Matrim: Elim / Neutral. I’m starting to get an iffy vibe. Will also probably have to review their posts. That being said, I really don’t want to lynch them just yet.
• Tani: Elim / Neutral. I want to see more from them.
• Esooa: Elim / Neutral. I. Mmmmm. I’m conflicted because I have a bad gut read. But I can also see arguments for them being village. The thing is, they come across as a savvy player so it’s not hard to see the village gambits as intentional. May expand on this later (would like to, actually, if I have the time and energy to). They broke the Illwei-Az tie on D1 but this doesn’t mean much if Illwei is village.
• Kas: Elim. Kas keeps mentioning having a bad read on Esooa but doesn’t want to commit to it via votes. I didn’t put much stock in it D1 since I also don’t like lynching new players D1. But I do feel like there may have been some distancing going on (voting on Esooa without much conviction, making it easy to switch off) and now he’s still not placing his vote elsewhere. His reads list, especially for those he’s suspicious of, feels like it could be a safe play for an elim.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Frozen Mint
formatting issue re: highlighting vote in red

[Archer]

I'm a little confused. Kas basically said they have a bad gut feeling about Esooa. You also have that gut feeling, and yet, you're voting him for it? 

[---]

Off break in three minutes so this is the last youll see of me til the night maybe

Archer

I know im one to talk, but theres too many voted going around here. He seems to have opinions but theyrr all way too...not noncommittal, but. Non-committal. It feels too much like hes trying to see where people are willing to vote and switching to them. 

Also ninjad so the recent post is eh for shading mint for her vote which makes sense. She feels like they might be teamed, archer. Dont like.

If i get back on in time and things have changed then quick psa that i am not okay with killing Squirrel, Esooa, Chantara- god why are all these the newer players- TUO, and to a lesser extent dalinar.

Just in case yall decide to kill me again while im gone (smh)

Initial read on TJ is bad because we dont have a PM >:(. What are you hiding tj? I feel like he should know how i am in PMs when village and i donno how i feel about him not making one

Kiiinda same on Kas. It has more to do with him saying he was gonna chill, then immediately coming out with things. Plus he opened a PM with me...to...chill...... 

Mat i have more concrete ("concrete") thread reasons, and id have to pull those up when im not phone posting at work. Think i mentioned them earlier but its partially mixed with how he handled TUO. Fine with killing 

Already talked about archer. 

I dont wanna think abt replacements but if steel is going to get a pinch hitter then id rather give the pinch hitter a cycle to show us things. Right now i dont feel good on him but i dont see many similarities to our elim game together, and after looking at past things it does check out that he is in his villager meta. 

Ive talked about squirrel and TUO already. Dalinar feels genuine, thats about all. 

Elk i dont want to die. Thats about all there is there, hes fun to play with and its been a while :P. (Where did this get me with Archer in the marson that straw ran? Uhhhhh we dont need to talk about it) if i die today then not opposed to elk dying, ive pmd some people abt it.

With that im 10 minutes over my break so i gotta go

[Esooa]

I kinda think Illwei is town

Mat is actually my most confident town read, maybe I was just pocketed day 1 but I read him as very likely town then

I've read nothing of day 2, I've put it off because I figured it'd be easier to just make reads closer to EoD though now I'm realizing my reads probably just won't matter, lmao

Start off I think Archer's good mostly cause his recently asked question is pointed/makes a lot of sense /shrug

[Kasimir]

22 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

• Kas: Elim. Kas keeps mentioning having a bad read on Esooa but doesn’t want to commit to it via votes. I didn’t put much stock in it D1 since I also don’t like lynching new players D1. But I do feel like there may have been some distancing going on (voting on Esooa without much conviction, making it easy to switch off) and now he’s still not placing his vote elsewhere. His reads list, especially for those he’s suspicious of, feels like it could be a safe play for an elim.

I'm a little confused too. You want me to vote for someone I have bad gut of over someone I have a reasoned suspicion of?

I don't even think this needs much saying. Reasoned suspicion (for whatever value of reason we can give D1 posts) should trump raw gut.

Internet is holding for now, after I uninstalled and reinstalled half the things. Still holding my breath as it was a bad afternoon too but who knows.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

On 9/7/2021 at 1:38 AM, |TJ| said:

@Devotary of Spontaneity, I understand that you didn't want Illwei to die D1, what's your read on her?

Well the most suspicious thing about Illwei is that people showed up to defend her D1. They weren't really in danger until Mint's vote, so if she is evil the most likely teammates are Esooa and Steel. Esooa thinking Az/Ill were e/e and voting for the former makes sense for v!Esooa I think. I don't know what Steel's reasoning was. If neither of those two are evil I don't see any particular reason for Illwei to be an elim, and if either are that certainly increases the chances even if it isn't a guarantee.

Not interested in playing the clearing/condemning people because of their role game. There's no guarantee Araris assigned roles based on how useful they would be to their respective alignments.

3 hours ago, Elkanah said:

 

  Hide contents

I must have completely missed this gambit. I have no idea about what you are talking.

I do take a bit of issue with 'not wanting to draw attention' to myself. I stated what is still my best guess for the four tenements. I expected to draw attention with that, and I certainly did. Not the least of which has been yours. As you point out, the only possible reason to put it in the thread is to help the village. Why would an elim give such valuable information to the village?

What in this post led you to vote on me? What do you mean by a 'vanity vote?'

 

TJ wanted to claim a tenement in thread, because if only one person did so they could get confirmed village by a tineye and protected by a lurcher before being shifted to a new location. Possibly could have worked, but would depend on their being a village tineye, lurcher, and location shifter willing to participate and then not an elim shifter.

I don't necessarily think it was helpful to have dumped all the locations in thread because that can help the elims narrow down where people are, but also elim!you probably could have gotten away with not sharing that information and maybe even killing someone who claimed to you.

Vanity vote presumably referring to anyone who didn't vote for Azmine or Illwei.

I'm less suspicious of Mat today than I was D1. I think this is mostly because people have been voting on Mat for reasons that don't really make sense, although the thing that most felt like this was Archer's vote immediately after disagreeing with Mat's reads and that vote has since been retracted. TUO is voting for I think similar reasons as Archer did, I'm not sure why Illwei's going for Mat over Archer since their complaint was about the latter, and then Dalinar's vote made sense at the time but I'm willing to give Mat a pass for his first few comments this turn as being part of a gambit.

I was going to vote for Archer at the end of this post. I see Illwei has already done so, which I guess makes sense since she indicated suspicion of him earlier. Archer does read like he cares more about exing someone than making sure that person is an elim. I think I will vote for Archer here but go back and check if this is something e!Archer does more than v!Archer.

[Kasimir]

Since I got ninja-ed by Devo:

@Elkanah, in answer to your question. Now that Tani has shown up, she's still a solid null for me, having not said enough to be read, though I lean a bit negative. Might be my bias/annoyance with low activity, which is semi-hypocritical as I don't intend to take this game that seriously and so haven't been bothering either. Point remains that it is a good spot to skate under the radar, and so players who narrowly avoid the filter with a bit of participation here and there, I tend to side-eye. But really it is that and a mix of "not enough information" at the moment.

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Kiiinda same on Kas. It has more to do with him saying he was gonna chill, then immediately coming out with things. Plus he opened a PM with me...to...chill...... 

I've told you this before everytime it's come up, and I think I want to say this in the thread because I've gotten enough/heard enough about this from players in the past couple games even though I also admittedly slipped out of the chill zone in MR53 and LG79: chilling doesn't mean being completely irresponsible and telling the Village "lmao too bad guys I'm chilling so I'm not gonna contribute." That's being inconsiderate because if I'm a Villager, then Village still needs to be able to read me. Staying in the null zone by being zero effort isn't really doing my job either. Everytime I say I'm chilling, it boils down to: I don't intend to deep-read posts or do my usual vote pattern analysis for as long as I can avoid it, and I absolutely refuse to do link analysis. But if I don't give reads, how do I expect to be read? How do I expect to help my team?

Like seriously guys. If you all think chill means 'sit back and don't do any analysis at all', I seriously worry for your interpretation of how to play this game, because you don't seem to have a conception of dialing it down without being an obstruction to your team.

If it's not blatantly clear from my reads list, everything there was gleaned from a quick glance-over at the thread. I didn't do any in-depth reading, or cross-referencing. A lot of it is gut, and in some cases, I'm so uber low-effort I'm not even bothering to really poke and figure out why I feel the way I do. 

That's low effort but still giving something, and that's the kind of zone I want to stay in when I'm chilling. I don't want to chill selfishly. That's about it.

[Mat]

Nah I'm moving to Mint, final answer. Unless I need to self pres. 

@Frozen Mint (and everyone)

Quote

Matrim: Elim / Neutral. I’m starting to get an iffy vibe. Will also probably have to review their posts. That being said, I really don’t want to lynch them just yet.

The iffy vibe you mention here likely is a product of suddenly being up for exe. It caught me off guard and my tone conveyed that, and I'm trying to dial it back

Edited September 8, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
I really hope that didn't double tag Mint :P I had to fix the tag because everything after the vote turned red

[Esooa]

Mat clearing people for location stuff is towny, obviously

I'm unsure what I think of Dalinar apparently having given out his location

I'm always inclined to say this kinda of... emptiness of worry is wolfy, but also, townies just do that kinda thing. I don't know why.

I just remembered Squirrel is ~always town, btw, which makes me feel better again about Illwei for not wanting to kill both myself and Squirrel, though, I have some hesitations here as it could just be to pocket me (based on PM's I'd expect wolf her trying to pocket me to also carry along my Squirrel read), as well as for the fact she's town reading TUO, who I think is town for reasons above.

If I think Dalinar or Chantara may be wolves I'll consider her more, but I'm going to be looking at that first because I don't think a wolf town cores 5 townies, and if they are, I'm not bothered enough to actively pursue killing them today

TJ sus

Illwei's Mat read is kinda meh, I guess I need to check PM's for why she said it, I forgot

Okay if Mat is wolf here then he sohuld take me to f3 I don't feel like I'm ever voting him

Elk town

Archer town

I'm skimming so not explaining these in this post but ask if you're curious ig

Archer is actually almost certainly town

okay well that's all

TJ

EDIT: TJ

idfk what's the eright color, oh well

Edited September 8, 2021 by Esooa

[Dalinar Kholin]

Anyone know the vote count?

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Esooa said:

idfk what's the eright color, oh well

-Any red

-[*color=red]STUFF[/*color] minus the asterisks is your best friend.

-Actually really any red but try to bold it, it saves the GM's life and eyes.

Source: Used to be a GM on this site, then I took a hammer to the knee.

[---]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Since I got ninja-ed by Devo:

@Elkanah, in answer to your question. Now that Tani has shown up, she's still a solid null for me, having not said enough to be read, though I lean a bit negative. Might be my bias/annoyance with low activity, which is semi-hypocritical as I don't intend to take this game that seriously and so haven't been bothering either. Point remains that it is a good spot to skate under the radar, and so players who narrowly avoid the filter with a bit of participation here and there, I tend to side-eye. But really it is that and a mix of "not enough information" at the moment.

I've told you this before everytime it's come up, and I think I want to say this in the thread because I've gotten enough/heard enough about this from players in the past couple games even though I also admittedly slipped out of the chill zone in MR53 and LG79: chilling doesn't mean being completely irresponsible and telling the Village "lmao too bad guys I'm chilling so I'm not gonna contribute." That's being inconsiderate because if I'm a Villager, then Village still needs to be able to read me. Staying in the null zone by being zero effort isn't really doing my job either. Everytime I say I'm chilling, it boils down to: I don't intend to deep-read posts or do my usual vote pattern analysis for as long as I can avoid it, and I absolutely refuse to do link analysis. But if I don't give reads, how do I expect to be read? How do I expect to help my team?

Like seriously guys. If you all think chill means 'sit back and don't do any analysis at all', I seriously worry for your interpretation of how to play this game, because you don't seem to have a conception of dialing it down without being an obstruction to your team.

If it's not blatantly clear from my reads list, everything there was gleaned from a quick glance-over at the thread. I didn't do any in-depth reading, or cross-referencing. A lot of it is gut, and in some cases, I'm so uber low-effort I'm not even bothering to really poke and figure out why I feel the way I do. 

That's low effort but still giving something, and that's the kind of zone I want to stay in when I'm chilling. I don't want to chill selfishly. That's about it.

The answer i was looking for was "isnt that the reasoning you gave in lg78, where you were an elim?"

[Esooa]

TJ

[Kasimir]

Just now, Illwei said:

The answer i was looking for was "isnt that the reasoning you gave in lg78, where you were an elim?"

Too thinky for me, not sorry ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Besides I felt the need to defend my sacred right to be a lazy barve and low effort af.

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Anyone know the vote count?

Mat (2): TUO, Dalinar
Illwei (1): TJ
Chantara (1): Kas
Squirrel (1): Archer
Kas (1): Mint
Archer (2): Illwei, Devo
Mint (1): Mat
TJ (1): Esooa

Kinda sad considering the cycle ends in less than two hours.

I actually won't be on for the last ~30 minutes, so I hope it doesn't get too swingy :P.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Esooa]

16 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You voted for me in your first post this turn, TUO.

My tone is getting increasingly more annoyed because I am getting increasingly more annoyed  (Please don't think I'm abrasive I'm not abrasive text is hard to convey tone) but I am getting tired of getting misexed because I have the most content to poke holes in. With enough posts there will be holes. Mine are found because I have enough posts to find them, not because I'm elim, every game. It's tiresome.

The way I've acted. Please explain? I don't think I've acted one way or the other? Except genuinely trying to solve? My wall, my reads list, my thoughts? What's wrong with those?

Doubt you'll like this post but what am I supposed to do lol. Claim?

Edit: I think that the people strong elim reading me here are village though. I'm kinda surprised no one is rising to my defense tbh and think that probably the people that would otherwise are elims just letting this slide through :P.

This is rly just like, the most obv towning post I've seen in the game

Not gonna vote this guy

[Kasimir]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The iffy vibe you mention here likely is a product of suddenly being up for exe. It caught me off guard and my tone conveyed that, and I'm trying to dial it back

Mat. I'm curious, and I've mentioned this briefly before, I think.

Why did you not have that tone issue when pressed as Rhino? Were you deliberately trying to suppress it to hide your identity?

[Dalinar Kholin]

*Sigh* Matrim's Dice. If Matrim's is evil I'm going to feel very dumb...I'm going to check rollover and be back later.

[Esooa]

For explanation if you don't know why, I find down playing/attempting to hold back annoyance very towny. Elim would be faking their emotions, so it's less natural in that way, imo

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Mat. I'm curious, and I've mentioned this briefly before, I think.

Why did you not have that tone issue when pressed as Rhino? Were you deliberately trying to suppress it to hide your identity?

Y'know this is actually a really good question... I wasn't trying to hide my tone at that point, no. I think I saw more maybe actual reason behind my push, or I could sort of see where it was coming from more? I think that one also came as less of a sudden thing. And I won't deny that, like, the more I almost get misexed D2, the more annoying it is the next time  But I don't really know, that's a self meta question I can't answer. I'm bad at self meta lol.

Ok I really need to figure out a coherent reads list but then I also have productive things I should be doing oh well this won't take too long

Spoiler

Elkanah (previously explained)
Esooa (gut+sub-mindmelding)
Squirrel (gut+interactions, and an independent and/or detached vibe I'm getting from their posts)
Archer (interactions, actions, bit of gut because everything has a bit of gut, something else I don't remember from D1)
TJ (ok this one is 100% gut. Probably deserves to be null+ tbh)
Chantara (D1 reads list, in-thread questions, general newness that I read as genuine)
-
Dalinar (+) (Ploy with location claiming)
TUO (+) (Intensity and committal)
Tani
Kas
Devo
Steel (-) (Eh he's probably just village :/ I think I underestimated his irl stuff and feel bad about that :P)
-
Illwei (I am not reading them village at all which is not normal. Illwei does not seem normal to me. Idk)
Mint (Gut, reads list, etc)

That's where I'm at right now. The small last tier makes me almost confident that someone in my village group shouldn't be there. I'll try to figure out that but I want a red flip before I try to come up with anything. I like player linking analysis. EDIT: Well, I'll still try to figure it out if that red flip doesn't come lol but it'd be easier if it did

I kind of want to switch Archer/TJ with Dalinar/TUO. They're all about the same, I guess. Tani/Kas/Devo are all just true null with no difference between them.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Matrim's Dice