Long Game 80: Skaa Tenements

[Squirrelwatcher]

I'm getting concerned with how easy the Elk push is - it feels to me that pushing an elim would have significantly more resistance and I'm kinda worried we're going after low hanging fruit.

--

I know that I was one of the people leading the push on Elk, but I'm getting serious second thoughts.

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

One thing that's standing out to me about Mat is when they voted TUO they said something like "[vote] As an experiment." It felt like an elim who is trying to head off complaints of trying to make bad wagons later. I've also gotten the sense that they're struggling to pick a good kill choice, which could be because their traditional first picks are their teammates. Steel is village, I'm pretty sure of it, so I dislike that vote. Their tone seems town. 

My experiment was seeing how TUO would react to added pressure. The vote wasn’t intended to stick unless I found their reaction worthy of it. That’s all it was.

…How the heck could you possibly make a read like ‘Mat seems like they’re struggling to choose a kill’ when a) I’ve mentioned nothing of the sort b.) We’ve already established that it’s unlikely for the elims to make a successful kill N1 c) I’m not thinking about the kills at all and there’s no reason for you to say I am and d) I’m not in the elim doc

And don’t elim read me for disagreeing with my read smh. That’s just not a good play.

[The Unknown Ajah]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

23 minutes ago, Archer said:

One thing that's standing out to me about Mat is when they voted TUO they said something like "[vote] As an experiment." It felt like an elim who is trying to head off complaints of trying to make bad wagons later. I've also gotten the sense that they're struggling to pick a good kill choice, which could be because their traditional first picks are their teammates. Steel is village, I'm pretty sure of it, so I dislike that vote. Their tone seems town. 

My experiment was seeing how TUO would react to added pressure. The vote wasn’t intended to stick unless I found their reaction worthy of it. That’s all it was.

…How the heck could you possibly make a read like ‘Mat seems like they’re struggling to choose a kill’ when a) I’ve mentioned nothing of the sort b.) We’ve already established that it’s unlikely for the elims to make a successful kill N1 c) I’m not thinking about the kills at all and there’s no reason for you to say I am and d) I’m not in the elim doc

And don’t elim read me for disagreeing with my read smh. That’s just not a good play.

No, I agree with Archer that's exactly how you sound. But I'll just go point to point.

A) It isn't talking about you saying that. You sound like you're trying to find an exe candidate that people will go after, but no one is following you. We have, but you'd still be looking for a target. This is a non-answer to the point. C) You completely sound like you're thinking about an exe candidate who people will follow you on. Also, how can you say that it has been determined that an elim kill is unlikely d1 and then say you haven't been think about the kill (not really a point in favor of you being an elim, just a little logical fallacy) D) That's equivalent to saying you're village. It's not a valid argument for the same reasons.

...We're not? You're attacking something that isn't there.

I really don't like the way your tone has sounded, nor the way you've acted, and I like the post even less. Mat (I don't think I've voted for you yet this turn? I can't remember)

[Esooa]

6 hours ago, Illwei said:

Actual picture of the council deciding this:

  Hide contents

 

lol omg

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

No, I agree with Archer that's exactly how you sound. But I'll just go point to point.

I ask again: How the heck is this even a tone that could be conveyed this is not a tone that can be conveyed stop claiming it's a tone that can be conveyed.

12 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

A) It isn't talking about you saying that. You sound like you're trying to find an exe candidate that people will go after, but no one is following you. We have, but you'd still be looking for a target. This is a non-answer to the point. C) You completely sound like you're thinking about an exe candidate who people will follow you on. Also, how can you say that it has been determined that an elim kill is unlikely d1 and then say you haven't been think about the kill (not really a point in favor of you being an elim, just a little logical fallacy) D) That's equivalent to saying you're village. It's not a valid argument for the same reasons.

lol I completely misunderstood Archer's point don't mind me

uh ignore the first line of this post as well :P. Ahem. Sorry.

In response to the correct point this time: Yeah I don't have a good exe candidate. Like I said, I'm confident in my village reads, not my elim ones. But I hazard to say that you don't really have a good candidate either :P. But I'm trying. I reread all of D1, made a big wall that no one read, made a big reads list no one commented on, have been working hard in PMs, and feel like I'm the only one really really working for this and I know I'm not so don't take it that way (talking to everyone generally here) but it feels like that.

I wrote an "In Defense of Mat" post in notepad that's kinda cheeky I suppose. I'll hold off on posting it :P. I'm kind of echoing some of the points in this one though.

12 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

...We're not? You're attacking something that isn't there.

Archer specifically listed in his paragraph of reasons he found me suspicious, my vote and read of Steel. It's definitely there. Go look and find it.

12 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I really don't like the way your tone has sounded, nor the way you've acted, and I like the post even less. Mat (I don't think I've voted for you yet this turn? I can't remember)

You voted for me in your first post this turn, TUO.

My tone is getting increasingly more annoyed because I am getting increasingly more annoyed  (Please don't think I'm abrasive I'm not abrasive text is hard to convey tone) but I am getting tired of getting misexed because I have the most content to poke holes in. With enough posts there will be holes. Mine are found because I have enough posts to find them, not because I'm elim, every game. It's tiresome.

The way I've acted. Please explain? I don't think I've acted one way or the other? Except genuinely trying to solve? My wall, my reads list, my thoughts? What's wrong with those?

Doubt you'll like this post but what am I supposed to do lol. Claim?

Edit: I think that the people strong elim reading me here are village though. I'm kinda surprised no one is rising to my defense tbh and think that probably the people that would otherwise are elims just letting this slide through :P.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Archer]

Okay I feel bad for missing Kas' vote so here's a VC:

Mat: TUO, Dalinar, Archer 

Steel: Mat

Elk: Kas, Illwei

29 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My experiment was seeing how TUO would react to added pressure. The vote wasn’t intended to stick unless I found their reaction worthy of it. That’s all it was.

…How the heck could you possibly make a read like ‘Mat seems like they’re struggling to choose a kill’ when a) I’ve mentioned nothing of the sort b.) We’ve already established that it’s unlikely for the elims to make a successful kill N1 c) I’m not thinking about the kills at all and there’s no reason for you to say I am and d) I’m not in the elim doc

And don’t elim read me for disagreeing with my read smh. That’s just not a good play.

I was running the same experiment. But pokes don't work if they're explicitly pokes, so I'm confused why you felt the need to cover yourself by saying it was an experiment. 

I meant exe when I said kill, as in your choice of who to vote off. You backwalked the Illwei v-v read which let's you vote for them, then jumped to Steel, who is confusing in a way elims can exploit while most villagers would just walk away from. 

Going down your reads list. Even Eoosa is confused why you're village reading them. Devo I don't see why you'd think they're evilish, you had them there even when still reading Illwei as good last cycle. Chantara I'd put as more evil than good. Then Illwei as full elim seems a bit much, and Steel too. Mint I'd put more null. The point of reads lists is to see how well people are mind melding. I disagree with a number of placements, and kinda feel like you sunk Illwei and Steel so you could focus on exing them first because you've teammates near the bottom of the list. That's ranging into tinfoil though. 

Also, there's the matter of your vote on Azmine. I find you and Esooa to be the most suspicious people on that wagon. So it's worth pursuing. 

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Doubt you'll like this post but what am I supposed to do lol. Claim?

I mean, I'm planning to come back to this tomorrow and reevaluate anyway, but realistically, I'm not sure a claim would make much difference. Unless you're something cool

If you're something cool, PM me :3

[Squirrelwatcher]

here I am trying to do vote count analysis and two of my townreads are going after each other smh

---

I did a reread of mat's posts this game - here's my thoughts:

• Posts have relatively less content than I remember (go figure, my memory is that of a walnut)
• Tone still feels solvey to me
• I read the 'experiment' post and the surrounding context - I really don't feel the 'elim hunting for an easy push that they can hop off of' vibe from it. It's difficult to quantify, but it just doesn't feel like that.

So a bunch of conflicting feelings; overall I still townlean this (at least to me; your mileage (or kilometarage depending on where you live) may vary)

 

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

I was running the same experiment. But pokes don't work if they're explicitly pokes, so I'm confused why you felt the need to cover yourself by saying it was an experiment. 

It wasn't like I was trying to cover myself. It's not the same thing as a poke, and I said what it was. I think it would have had a different effect if I had just naked-voted, and that probably would have made you suspect me all the same :P.

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

I meant exe when I said kill, as in your choice of who to vote off. You backwalked the Illwei v-v read which let's you vote for them, then jumped to Steel, who is confusing in a way elims can exploit while most villagers would just walk away from. 

I didn't backwalk, I reread D1 and changed my mind. With Steel, it's a difference of reads and a difference of gut. Don't elim read me because we disagree on this one thing.

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

Going down your reads list. Even Eoosa is confused why you're village reading them.

I don't think they were confused, they just asked why (which I don't think is the same thing). And that was fair, since I never actually said why I vil read them. I now have.

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Devo I don't see why you'd think they're evilish, you had them there even when still reading Illwei as good last cycle.

I only think they're evil if Illwei is, and it's a bad read. I had Devo as true null D1 so I dunno what you're talking about here.

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Chantara I'd put as more evil than good. Then Illwei as full elim seems a bit much, and Steel too. Mint I'd put more null.

Here's the thing again. Don't elim read me because we disagree. That's not a valid reason. I think Chantara is village. I'm paranoid about Illwie and Mint and have a bad gut on Steel. I don't see why that's suspicious.

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

I mean, I'm planning to come back to this tomorrow and reevaluate anyway, but realistically, I'm not sure a claim would make much difference. Unless you're something cool

If you're something cool, PM me :3

I'm actually something decidedly not cool. It would make like no sense for an elim to have the role I do.

1 minute ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

• Posts have relatively less content than I remember (go figure, my memory is that of a walnut)

This is probably fair. I bet they have less content than I remember as well

[Archer]

What do you call a Mistborn that's good at entrepreneurship? 

A House Venture Capitalist

Mat  

[Kasimir]

I'm going to drop the RP for the moment to try to take advantage of the fact I have Internet for a bit. Highlighting that these reads are defeasible/will probably adjusted as and when I have the bandwidth to take a closer look.

Light Village with Soy Sauce:

Spoiler

 

-Archer, with asterisk

Generally Village-read those who are active and promoting discussion

-Dalinar

I feel that of the two players who were phishing/gambiting C1, Dalinar's gambit comes off as being a bit more positive Village-wise. It could be because Dalinar was giving location info rather than getting it, though to be fair, it could be a subtle attempt to phish as well, knowing players will feel some psychological pressure to reciprocate. Essentially feels like he's trying to solve things, so light Village.

 

Himalaya Rock Salted Village:

Spoiler

 

-TJ

TJ's clearly engaged with the game on some level, and feels the way he usually does in our interactions (nice to not need a Postman this time!) At the same time, I kind of feel that TJ's proposed plan doesn't give him too much Village credit because it's just as effective a means of phishing. This is especially so since TJ suggested the plan but then didn't bother to follow through.

-Devo

Another asterisk because Devo is often one of the last Elims standing for a good reason. Acting within Devo parameters which doesn't say much because Devo is often hard to read. Tentative light read for making decent points as usual.

-TUO

Weak, notice that TUO narrowed on Mat and hasn't budged since. Low vote flexibility is not usually a good sign but TUO has been more active and engaged than usual (and has been a low-activity/disengaged Elim in our last two games together) so I'm going to lean light Village as well.

 

Plain Porridge:

Spoiler

 

-Tani

Haven't heard from her, have seen her checking out the thread, will not be our problem unless she shows up to head off the filter.

-Steel

Low engagement, behaviour is within Steel parameters which isn't pushing me one way or another. Mat flip might be interesting in that regard.

-Illwei

Standard Illwei. Not sure how I feel about Illwei pushing hard on Chantara behind-the-scenes D1 and then veering off N1. Main conclusion is not likely E/E with Chantara.

 

Crackers with Tabasco:

Spoiler

 

-Mint

Could easily put into null. Makes some good points, started off hedgy but it's D1.

-Squirrel

Post on disliking the Elk push was a bit hedgy and weird given Squirrel never voted on Elk anyway, and semi-distancing.

-Elk

Could easily be null. I don't like how Elk is phishing for information and not really clear on what the pay-off is. Villagers and Elims both have incentive to phish in this game, but if I can't see how a player gathering info is trying or thinking it will benefit the Village, then I'm side-eying them.

 

A Little Nandos:

Spoiler

 

-Mat

Here's the thing. Mat's sudden leap about clearing TUO and Dalinar reads (tonally) more to me like an overexcited Villager than an Elim. I have a fairly okay Village read from that. I feel there's little reason for Evil!Mat and Evil!Dalinar to arrange for this: easier for Evil!Dalinar to also deliver the conclusion rather than to connect them (so Bondsmith.) Minimally I suppose, we should read Dalinar-Mat as not E!-E! But I still don't really like the sudden "Should've gone for Steel over Azmine" thing. And Mat's tone now strikes me as being different from the last time he was under lynch threat, which is giving me some misgivings. Tldr; not feeling this the way TUO et al evidently are, but exactly going to be upset if he dies.

-Chantara

Reason already mentioned: read on Illwei D1 seems forced and fishing for reasons. Especially eh in light of the fact that she's part of the Illwei train. Reaction to sus also seems off - I'm looking at the "yeah this will probably not convince you" post which reads a bit too defensive.

-Esooa

I genuinely cannot give a reason for this other than negative unrelenting gut. I feel like Esooa is partly trying to Illwei, I suppose, and I don't know if this is to frustrate analysis or because that's her natural playstyle.

 

Burn a prayer glyph for me to the Internet gods y'all. I don't want to have to ask for a pinch-hitter or get filter-killed.

Chantara is the other real vote option for me now, and since I don't know if I will be back in time (please pray for my Internet!), here we go. Not fond of Elk dodging the question but what can you do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Elkanah]

I promise a nice hot plate of answering everyone one by one when I wake up tomorrow, but for now it seems the common question is why would I phish the info/what do I get.

A) I'm going for the additional win.

B ) I haven't really found much interesting to do with my role, so I'll contribute in a different way.

C) I like getting people to tell me stuff they shouldn't (I'm a bit of a servant to the beholding).

D) I figured that if the elims already have this information, we may as well have it, too

Further specifics to come when I've slept

[---]

Archer's votes aren't sticking

Matrim

EDIT:

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Plain Porridge:

 

Also smhsmh

Edited September 8, 2021 by Illwei

[|TJ|]

Okay so stuff - village reading Archer, Squirrel, Dalinar (last post pushed him into village). 

Unsure of all the votes suspicion on Mat, I'm still reading him as mild village. Disagree with the reasoning Dalinar gave, because he's done the 'ofc I'm village' thing in other games too. And the other reason was the the 'vote as an experiment' bit, and him voting without needing to give a reason. Again, I think the reaction to this statement has been a bit over the top. So I'll be not voting for him. Won't encourage a Steel vote either. He's not said anything of importance and alignment indicative. 

No, Elk's case is a bit weird. The question again is if he's evil, why reveal the names of tenements he found out? Villagers with allomantic roles know only their own tenement so any info given would be helpful to us. I'd like to see Elk's reply to Mat's accusation. @Elkanah, any reason why you revealed two locations to Mat and different locations to someone else?

Don't have anymore suspicions to add to D1, I still think Illwei and/or Esooa is/are off and Mint too. Chantara and Kas are not null, shame I'd expect to be village reading Kas by now smh :P.

Illwei whyu votin' for Mat?

[Squirrelwatcher]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

-Squirrel

Post on disliking the Elk push was a bit hedgy and weird given Squirrel never voted on Elk anyway, and semi-distancing.

I actually voted Elk D1 but sure

For future reference my elim play normally involves trying to push out villagers and explaining away why I did that after the fact instead of pushing people and hopping off the wagon before it gets exed

---

Edit: will post reads tomorrow after I finish looking at D1 votes, signing off for now unless y'all ping me in the next 5 minutes lol

Edited September 8, 2021 by Squirrelwatcher

[Kasimir]

15 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

I actually voted Elk D1 but sure

Referring to today since you're presumably referring to today's train, but sure.

15 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

For future reference my elim play normally involves trying to push out villagers and explaining away why I did that after the fact instead of pushing people and hopping off the wagon before it gets exed

The irony of players talking about their Elim play as I presumably will also have to do at some point and have done previously is that you need to consider them a reliable source of testimony to begin with. You see the problem I would hope.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

Chantara and Kas are not null, shame I'd expect to be village reading Kas by now smh :P.

Already said: quiet, RPful game. I busted my back trying to do my share of the carry in MR53 and LG79. I'm having a chill game. You're just going to have to learn to read me when I apply about maybe 30% effort to a game, I'm not sorry  

[Quivil]

...

Wait what's happening? And what happened for all of the first cycle?

I exist. Maybe.

[Elkanah]

Spoilering so I don't take the whole page

Spoiler

On 9/6/2021 at 4:11 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

 

K so Dalinar PMd me D1 and told me their location. They said that TUO knew their location as well (which I assume they can confirm, or something weird is happening). Since Dalinar is alive, TUO is basically clear (and me, but that's more dicey for me to say)

I guess technically something more complex could be going on but I'm inclined to go with Occam's Razor here.

Edit: Lol if I were a Tineye who scanned TUO I wouldn't out myself for one green check

This could go either way. When I first read it, it felt bad. Upon rereading it, it's really not an indicator. 

On 9/6/2021 at 4:55 PM, Esooa said:

I threw up

I'm sorry. I hope you get feeling better. I hate throwing up.

On 9/6/2021 at 5:43 PM, Archer said:

Here's what's bugging me. Elk said they learned the four locations last Day. 

I'm skeptical that a villager could have done that. He could include his own location in that list, but any villager who claimed to him would have known that doing so risked being the elim kill. Best case scenario, the three people who claimed to him had different houses, but odds are there'd be some overlap. Is everyone just being really free with their information? Or did he have the benefit of knowing some elim teammates' locations? It's difficult to parse this out without giving the elims some idea of who claimed what, but I think it's worth at least asking if anyone will admit to having claimed to Elk

You underestimate the size of my butt and the things I can pull therefrom! I aspire to be as spidery as Mailliw and as chaotic as Alvron. Maybe someday. Although if I had been as interested in solving the game as I was in determining what house everyone was in for the additional win, I'd have gone about it in a different way. The better application of my private messages would have been to claim a different tenement to four different people. The goal in doing so is to see who is talking to whom. It brings down more suspicion on me for the fist few turns, but it also helps me find potential eliminator teams since depending on who assumed I was in which tenement would tell me who they talked to.

I threw all of my effort into messaging and didn't leave enough time for the thread sadly.

On 9/6/2021 at 5:48 PM, The Unknown Order said:

Elk already knew my location, but they didn't know the location somebody I knew.

XD

On 9/6/2021 at 6:02 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m aware of some inconsistency with Elk and his location claims. Not sure how to take it, but the general idea is that he claimed to know two locations to PlayerX (PlayerX has told this to me) on Saturday morning, and Elk claimed to know only two locations to me Saturday morning as well, the PM to me being sent after the PM to PlayerX. Thing is, the sets of locations are different.

(My reread progress got halted. Conclusions from that are still coming eventually)

This was an attempt to obfuscate my own location. If I claimed to be aware of only two and I claimed a different two to different people, it would be more difficult for people to be able to put together where I started. It was also a small attempt to see who was contacting whom. Matrim is a respectable elim, so I gave him a different set from anyone else to see who he'd ask. 

On 9/6/2021 at 7:59 PM, Steeldancer said:

Hm, you don't get told when you get relocated? Thrilling. Can't claim my location if I'm not even sure where I am. 
It's like being Zoro! Always lost! Also like me irl. 
Honestly, what I really need to do is do a thorough reread, but I'm still getting some homework done, and tomorrow is crazy...
I might need to take a break from SE if things get much more busy than this. 
My one thought at the moment is that when I get back I'll be interested in people flying under the radar, like Tani. But I'll worry about that later. 

I love the analogy! XD

I support you in your righteous decisions. Do all the homework and rejoin us. 

On 9/6/2021 at 9:34 PM, Archer said:

-v!TJ: I think I always view them as village, but c’mon. They clearly read the thread and had thoughts, and they proposed an awesome gambit! I think if they’d actually done the gambit, it would have cemented their villageness, but they didn’t. And there was little reaction to it, which could be elim teammates knowing not to take the bait. But because I agreed with much of what they said, I’m trusting them for now.

-n!Kas: 

-n!Dalinar:

-n!TUO: 

-v!Steel: 

-e!Elk: I remain surprised how quickly they learned all the houses, but based on some people saying they told or were approached about it, I’m a little less suspicious of the accomplishment now (pending further verification). I really don’t like their vote on Tani, which came at 40 minutes to rollover and was on someone who had yet to speak (Tani). I feel like it could be because they didn’t want to pick a fight with someone present and draw attention to themselves, or they didn’t want to be on a successful mix and take heat for it. What gives me pause though is that they didn’t need to release the house names like they did, especially if they did end up using an elim teammate’s location to get the list started. Although I don’t doubt someone in the elim doc volunteered to try PM spidering for the info he gathered.

-n!Tani: It’s D2, that’s past the time for contribution crusades. I don’t support voting them.

-e!Chantara:

 I imagine the elims had a similar problem to us: there was few solid kill options. Half the players were new or returning, several had been early kills in recent games, and of the remaining, some would have been village read. Since they have great influence over the exe, they would have had to have some sort of discussion about who they feel okay letting die. Azmine was a decent choice. I can see them liking Illwei since they play a lot of games at once anyway (I know Mat saw them as a palpable kill option). Mat, Devo, Kas, and myself rounded out the list, I imagine, minus the elims in that group.

-v!Devo: 

I left only what I felt it was relevant for me to respond.

I must have completely missed this gambit. I have no idea about what you are talking.

I appreciate the compliment! The vote on Tani was regrettable. It was a mixture of some things. I didn't want to kill Illwei because they always seem to be an early scapegoat and it felt bad not to let them play. I didn't want to kill Azmine as it's their first game (as far as I've seen). I meant to post that post three hours earlier (which would have made poking a bit more reasonable), but got distracted and wasn't able to post until around an hour before the end. And I didn't feel I had time or opportunity to move the lynch to someone I really suspected, so I went ahead with a vote on someone who wasn't in danger of getting killed, but might be spurred into activity. 

I do take a bit of issue with 'not wanting to draw attention' to myself. I stated what is still my best guess for the four tenements. I expected to draw attention with that, and I certainly did. Not the least of which has been yours. As you point out, the only possible reason to put it in the thread is to help the village. Why would an elim give such valuable information to the village?

I refute you thus. Day 2 is the perfect time to start Contribution Crusading. On day one, it's a poke. On day two, it's a crusade! I would agree that leaving Tani to die to the filter would have been the best play today if not for two things. 1. I want them to join us and love this game as much as we do. I think the best way to enjoy this game is to play it. (Sorry Spec Doc). 2. They have now posted and qualify as lurking. They are safe from the filter, and while I don't think I'm going to vote for them again today, it would be nice to hear their thoughts.

While I don't envy the elim's selection of who is socially acceptable to kill, I don't think it would stop them. We all have to accept this is a game, and we can be killed even if it's not as fun on the sidelines. I expect they really just didn't have a safe kill option. Unfortunately, we don't have that luxury again tonight. 

Finally, it looks like you only suspect myself and Chantara. I don't really have a read on Chantara yet. I have filed everything they've said as non-indicative. I appreciate the reads list and Illwei always comes off a bit... eager? aggressive? and I just have to factor that in when I'm reading them. A newer player wouldn't know that and the vote seems to make sense given those parameters.

On 9/6/2021 at 11:38 PM, |TJ| said:

Yeah, I'mma complain about this. One of the main reasons to propose a risky but village-helping gambit is to gauge reactions of other players, if they're too enthusiastic about it or if they're too opposing or if they're stoic and poker-face like, the reactions give indications of the players. Archer was like the only person to comment on it smh. 

lmaooooo I keep thinking operation security xDD

I'm sorry. I completely missed what the gambit was. I'll probably have to go back and reread day one.

It is...

On 9/7/2021 at 0:26 AM, Kasimir said:

And then it turned out that Leek [OOC: Elk] had been going all around the slums as well, telling everyone he knew where everyone was. 

If Izi wasn't paying the rent, she'd be out on her ear by nightfall. So what was the point, really? [OOC: There's an inactivity filter, and it's two cycles. Tani will be removed by D3 if she doesn't post. Now if she does lurk, that's a different issue, but there's no reason to worry too much about her for the moment if she's scheduled to be hit by the filter. Agree with Archer on this.]

Either way, it was still morning, if a little later in the day than Airam'd meant to get up, and he thought that if there was anyone here he'd side-eye, it was probably Leek. Sure, both a Ministry agent and skaa had reason to collect information, but the way Airam saw it, it wasn't just about collecting information, but what you'd planned to do with it. Looked like Van was trying to exculpate a few players, which seemed a bit of a skaa thing to do, though it was thin gruel. Stuart probably wasn't in cahoots with Van either: the speed with which he'd run screaming through the slums seemed to imply he was a skaa who'd gotten a bit over-excited and lost his head.

So the real question was Leek. Leek'd been fishing around. What did he have to show for it? What were his plans?

I laughed so hard. This is exactly what I was doing! XD Fear the ceaseless watcher!

I don't want to say 'let's lynch Izi now that they're here', but what are your updated thoughts now that they aren't going into the mulcher by themself?

I plan to get the extra win. What else would I do with it? I have a decent guess on six people's locations, which I'm hoping is better than the elims have. Especially given they failed to get a kill last night.

23 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

You do realize the game is tagged with PM unsafety, right?

I love this more than I can say. 

23 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

I haven't told anyone where I am, and don't plan on doing so. 

But what if I ask really nicely 

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

right now I'm more interested in people like Elkanah and Kas, who were off in their own world a little.

Ouch. I mean fair, but ouch

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

Elaborate on that please

19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Wdym? I already explained the gambit itself:

So like he told someone else that the two locations he had worked out were A and B, and ten minutes later told me that the two locations he had worked out were B and C.

The gambit was to see who Matrim was in contact with. I have a decent idea of who he was talking to, but it's clear it was through PM and not in a doc. Otherwise, he wouldn't have timestamps. 

19 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Twice Matrim's soft proposed that he was clear (along with TUO). This raised a lot of red flags. Then Matrim's followed my theory re. Illwei (attempt to pocket?). Placing my vote on Matrim's Dice. @Matrim's Dice

I'm flipping on Illwei to strong village for one main reason: Illwei didn't vote for Azime day one. That seems like a natural elim (or village) move, and I would be very surprised if an elim died merely by failing to vote/leaving a 4-4 split to chance. Various open posts defending Dev further persuade me against my previous logic. I lean village on Dev. Just about everyone else I see decent arguments both ways.

Side note: I'm notoriously awful at SE strategy and analysis. I've noted that I tend to suspect more active players simply because that is my elim style & the more information out there the easier it is to find something suspect. Anyways, I'm starting 2L year of law school today, so probably will be in and out with much RP . I will do my best to engineer a few more spicy (?) plays and/or die in a blaze of glory. 

Edit: Added tag b/c I like to give people notice when I vote for them.

I'm not sure this is as big an indicator as you are hoping for. I have had a bad gut read of Matrim for most of the game, but there are two things that are preventing me from voting for him. I think I have them quoted, so I'll address them when I get there.

18 hours ago, Archer said:

I was initially going to vote Esooa today, but I don't have a good reason for it. Elk had a vanity vote, so that's a lead anyway. 

What in this post led you to vote on me? What do you mean by a 'vanity vote?'

17 hours ago, Illwei said:

Actual picture of the council deciding this:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Bwahahaha. This is brilliant!

12 hours ago, Archer said:

One thing that's standing out to me about Mat is when they voted TUO they said something like "[vote] As an experiment." It felt like an elim who is trying to head off complaints of trying to make bad wagons later. I've also gotten the sense that they're struggling to pick a good kill choice, which could be because their traditional first picks are their teammates. Steel is village, I'm pretty sure of it, so I dislike that vote. Their tone seems town. 

Congrats, Elk, you out-waited me. Mat  

YO Kas, who ya voting for. I forget if you have a vote down yet

I apologize. While I am certainly a villager, I didn't intend for silence to clear me. 

Mat's experiment is the main reason I'm not voting for him right now. I can't imagine an elim pulling that, and I absolutely would have done the exact same thing if I thought it would give me an alignment on The Unknown Order. To me it feels like he's trying to solve the game there, not find an excuse.

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: Are you frickin' serious I was the first Elk vote >>

I'm considering now though as Elk is not a top suspicion but I did want to hear from him; less sure if Elk is the person I am most suspicious of and most want to die today. As I noted in my single post today, I am more suspicious of Chantara. I also continue to have negative gut reads on Esooa and recently a bit on Squirrel.

Fair warning I may ask for a pinch-hitter/disappear. My Internet is now crapping out, I have windows of connection and then zilch otherwise, I've spent the entire morning/last night trying to troubleshoot and it's frustrating af.]

Or we could all not vote for Elk 

I hope your internet situation works out. That's rough.

11 hours ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

I'm getting concerned with how easy the Elk push is - it feels to me that pushing an elim would have significantly more resistance and I'm kinda worried we're going after low hanging fruit.

--

I know that I was one of the people leading the push on Elk, but I'm getting serious second thoughts.

Thank you!

11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My experiment was seeing how TUO would react to added pressure. The vote wasn’t intended to stick unless I found their reaction worthy of it. That’s all it was.

…How the heck could you possibly make a read like ‘Mat seems like they’re struggling to choose a kill’ when a) I’ve mentioned nothing of the sort b.) We’ve already established that it’s unlikely for the elims to make a successful kill N1 c) I’m not thinking about the kills at all and there’s no reason for you to say I am and d) I’m not in the elim doc

And don’t elim read me for disagreeing with my read smh. That’s just not a good play.

This is my main reason for thinking you aren't an elim. The rest of the post feels bad, but the empirical evidence is in your favor.

8 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Unsure of all the votes suspicion on Mat, I'm still reading him as mild village. Disagree with the reasoning Dalinar gave, because he's done the 'ofc I'm village' thing in other games too. And the other reason was the the 'vote as an experiment' bit, and him voting without needing to give a reason. Again, I think the reaction to this statement has been a bit over the top. So I'll be not voting for him. Won't encourage a Steel vote either. He's not said anything of importance and alignment indicative. 

No, Elk's case is a bit weird. The question again is if he's evil, why reveal the names of tenements he found out? Villagers with allomantic roles know only their own tenement so any info given would be helpful to us. I'd like to see Elk's reply to Mat's accusation. @Elkanah, any reason why you revealed two locations to Mat and different locations to someone else?

Don't have anymore suspicions to add to D1, I still think Illwei and/or Esooa is/are off and Mint too. Chantara and Kas are not null, shame I'd expect to be village reading Kas by now smh :P.

Illwei whyu votin' for Mat?

Couldn't have argued the case to wait on Matrim better myself.

Also a very good point. That's why I haven't revealed anyone's location to anyone else. The names of the tenements can only help us, but who is in what location is only their business.

I explained above that I wanted to perform a test of my own on Mat. That's why I gave him a unique set of tenements. 

2 hours ago, Tani said:

...

Wait what's happening? And what happened for all of the first cycle?

I exist. Maybe.

Welcome to SE!!!! I'm glad you are here. Have you read the backlog? It's a bit intimidating, but I'm keen to hear your insights.

A few more thoughts: I don't like the train on Matrim at the moment. If the lynch is currently V/V, he likely has the more useful ability. I'm happy to keep infodumping in thread the generic information I find, but I'm also not planning on selling anyone out. I know what tenement Azmine was in, but I don't know how useful or relevant that is now. I'm happy to answer any more questions. I hope to post a reads order if not a reads list before rollover, but I'm finishing this right now at work. Work ends for me the same time as rollover, so it will all depend on how busy we are.

[Quivil]

7 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Welcome to SE!!!! I'm glad you are here. Have you read the backlog? It's a bit intimidating, but I'm keen to hear your insights.

No, I haven't. It's too intimidating for me to deal with right now.

[Elkanah]

11 minutes ago, Tani said:

No, I haven't. It's too intimidating for me to deal with right now.

Reading today's may be enough to start. We've mostly rehashed last cycle anyway.

[Mat]

17 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

A few more thoughts: I don't like the train on Matrim at the moment. If the lynch is currently V/V, he likely has the more useful ability. I'm happy to keep infodumping in thread the generic information I find, but I'm also not planning on selling anyone out. I know what tenement Azmine was in, but I don't know how useful or relevant that is now. I'm happy to answer any more questions. I hope to post a reads order if not a reads list before rollover, but I'm finishing this right now at work. Work ends for me the same time as rollover, so it will all depend on how busy we are.

I'm nearly confident Elk is village now. Reading their responses to everyone and seeing the effort they put into that feels very village to me. I'm laughing about how you think I have the more useful ability, because I can almost guarantee I don't, and if no one agrees to change off of us in the next few hours I'm happy to be the one to die :P. I'm not playing very well this game so it makes sense to keep you alive.

When you say you know Az's tenement, does that mean you're a Night Crew who used your ability? Cause that'd technically put me as more useful role-wise than you, but not by much

I won't vote Elk for self pres, if it stays just us. Steel. I feel like I should reread today's events with the lens of assuming Mat/Elk v/v to maybe get a hint of the elims that jumped on either.

Does anyone have a VC?

[Archer]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I feel like I should reread today's events with the lens of assuming Mat/Elk v/v

:eyes: 

Effort doesn't equal goodness, especially since Elk had some time to cook that up. 

Mat: TUO, Dalinar, Illwei

Steel: Mat

Illwei: TJ

Chantara: Kas

Esooa: Archer

Anyone feel like making a gut wagon on Esooa. They did vote Azmine super suspiciously...

[---]

21 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Cause that'd technically put me as more useful role-wise than you, but not by much

Ew

EDIT:

Aaaand that is all illwei has time for today. This was brought to you by the unexpected morning traffic that shoulda been expected 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat]

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

Effort doesn't equal goodness, especially since Elk had some time to cook that up. 

That's just a part of my read. An elim wouldn't go for the additional win since it requires the village to win first, and everything Elk has done has been in line with going for that additional win.

19 minutes ago, Archer said:

Anyone feel like making a gut wagon on Esooa. They did vote Azmine super suspiciously...

Of all the suspicious Az votes you pick the one person I have a village read on .-.

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Ew

What's that supposed to mean :P. 

[Archer]

I mean, if I was an elim collecting locations to swap or kill, I'd lean into trying to win the bonus prize as an excuse. 

For the record, I haven't told my location to anyone. So if I'm killed, it's because I was scanned or someone swapped my location for a known one. The other puzzling part about the Elk situation is why people claimed to them at all. I'm a little surprised they haven't followed up on that. I feel like elims would offer their locations up first, because they have less reason to fear. At this point, I'm leaning village on Elk, but they're not executing this the way I would have, so it's not a solid read. Personally, I'd say yo alignment scanner, let's try and use this info. 

Anyway, next on my list of people to start a wagon on sometime was Squirrel, so do you like that choice better?

[Mat]

23 minutes ago, Archer said:

but they're not executing this the way I would have

Archer, you're the only person I know with your playstyle.