Long Game 80: Skaa Tenements

[The Unknown Ajah]

53 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can you talk to me about where else you've had experience with mafia?

EDIT: @The Unknown Order has your read on mat changed at all today

If anything it has gotten worse.

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

If anything it has gotten worse.

Could you like try to articulate that at all?

[---]

17 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm finding that D1 they made reads that look almost TMI to me because of how random they seem. Things like marking TUO as definite village unless they're teammates with me.

Sigh. I point you to LG75, where i got voted out D1 for doing exactly this. you might not remember well, since you were the GM-

lmao Fura just called me asking why i spilled rice on his computer who told him smh

Don't ask, idk. I just felt like it. Meant to post this last night (in game night, N1) but i couldn't figure out how to table. I figured it out now though. lol.

Spoiler

[P]	Matrim	votes	Squirrelwatcher	+1
[P]	TUO	votes	Archer	+1
[P]	Archer	votes	Squirrelwatcher	+2
[P]	Illwei	votes	Archer	+2
[P]	Esooa	votes	Archer	+3
[P]	Kasimir	votes	TJ	+1
[P]	Kasimir	unvotes	TJ	- 0
[P]	Kasimir	votes	Illwei	+1
[P]	Elkanah	votes	Esooa	+1
[P]	Archer	unvotes	Squirrelwatcher	- 1
[P]	Archer	vote	TUO	+1
[P]	Illwei	unvotes	Archer	- 2
[P]	Illwei	votes	Kasimir	+1
[P]	Matrim	unvotes	Squirrelwatcher	- 0
[P]	Matrim	votes	TUO	+2
[P]	TUO	unvotes	Archer	- 1
[P]	TUO	votes	Matrim	+1
[P]	Archer	unvotes	TUO	- 1
[P]	Archer	votes	Azmine	+1
[P]	Squirrelwatcher	votes	Elkanah	+1
[P]	Kasimir	unvotes	Illwei	- 0
[P]	Kasimir	votes	Esooa	+2
[P]	Illwei	unvotes	Kasimir	- 0
[P]	Illwei	votes	Dalinar	+2
[P]	TJ	votes	Illwei	+1
[P]	Matrim	unvotes	TUO	- 0
[P]	Matrim	votes	Azmine	+2
[P]	Kasimir	unvotes	Esooa	- 0
[P]	Kasimir	votes	Frozen Mint	+1
[P]	Frozen Mint	votes	Illwei	+2
[P]	Esooa	unvotes	Archer	- 0
[P]	Esooa	votes	Azmine	+3
[P]	Elkanah	unvotes	Esooa	- 0
[P]	Elkanah	votes	Tani	+1
[P]	Steeldancer	votes	Azmine	+4
[P]	Chantara	votes	Illwei	+3
[P]	Azmine	votes	Esooa	+1
[P]	Azmine	unvotes	Esooa	- 0
[P]	Azmine	votes	Illwei	+4
[P]	Devotary	votes	Azmine	+5

 

What do I got from this? Idk, Mat and Archer aren't e/e i don't think. Mat basically just follows Archer's votes. TUO had the same reaction to both Mat and Archer voting on him, so if TUO is an elim either mat and archer both are, or neither of them are. Leaning towards neither if so.

The only people who ever got above three votes are me, Archer, and Azmine, and Archer's i think barely counts.

right now I'm more interested in people like Elkanah and Kas, who were off in their own world a little.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Illwei
Quote instead of spoiler oops lol

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Sigh. I point you to LG75, where i got voted out D1 for doing exactly this. you might not remember well, since you were the GM-

Yeah no lol I don't remember this. But I it probably happened.

Thing with Elk is though that I doubt he'd send varying lists of tenements within 24 hours of the game starting to separate people as elim. It just seems like a weird and pointless gambit. I mean, it seems like that regardless of alignment but more so as elim imo. I PMd him asking about this last night (not in game last night, it was during D2) but he hasn't responded.

Steel

[---]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Thing with Elk is though that I doubt he'd send varying lists of tenements within 24 hours of the game starting to separate people as elim. It just seems like a weird and pointless gambit. I mean, it seems like that regardless of alignment but more so as elim imo. I PMd him asking about this last night (not in game last night, it was during D2) but he hasn't responded.

Elaborate on that please

[Mat]

Just now, Illwei said:

Elaborate on that please

Wdym? I already explained the gambit itself:

19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m aware of some inconsistency with Elk and his location claims. Not sure how to take it, but the general idea is that he claimed to know two locations to PlayerX (PlayerX has told this to me) on Saturday morning, and Elk claimed to know only two locations to me Saturday morning as well, the PM to me being sent after the PM to PlayerX. Thing is, the sets of locations are different.

(My reread progress got halted. Conclusions from that are still coming eventually)

So like he told someone else that the two locations he had worked out were A and B, and ten minutes later told me that the two locations he had worked out were B and C.

[Dalinar Kholin]

21 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Lol I'm clearing you. Technically I'm clear as well but /shrug. 

(emphasis added). 

21 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 

K so Dalinar PMd me D1 and told me their location. They said that TUO knew their location as well (which I assume they can confirm, or something weird is happening). Since Dalinar is alive, TUO is basically clear (and me, but that's more dicey for me to say)

I guess technically something more complex could be going on but I'm inclined to go with Occam's Razor here.

Edit: Lol if I were a Tineye who scanned TUO I wouldn't out myself for one green check

(emphasis added) Then here.

Twice Matrim's soft proposed that he was clear (along with TUO). This raised a lot of red flags. Then Matrim's followed my theory re. Illwei (attempt to pocket?). Placing my vote on Matrim's Dice. @Matrim's Dice

I'm flipping on Illwei to strong village for one main reason: Illwei didn't vote for Azime day one. That seems like a natural elim (or village) move, and I would be very surprised if an elim died merely by failing to vote/leaving a 4-4 split to chance. Various open posts defending Dev further persuade me against my previous logic. I lean village on Dev. Just about everyone else I see decent arguments both ways.

Side note: I'm notoriously awful at SE strategy and analysis. I've noted that I tend to suspect more active players simply because that is my elim style & the more information out there the easier it is to find something suspect. Anyways, I'm starting 2L year of law school today, so probably will be in and out with much RP . I will do my best to engineer a few more spicy (?) plays and/or die in a blaze of glory. 

Edit: Added tag b/c I like to give people notice when I vote for them.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Dalinar Kholin

[Mat]

21 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Twice Matrim's soft proposed that he was clear (along with TUO). This raised a lot of red flags. Then Matrim's followed my theory re. Illwei (attempt to pocket?). Placing my vote on Matrim's Dice. @Matrim's Dice

That’s why I included the shrug and ‘dicey’ lol. Because I’m actually not. But if TUO is, then I am as well (and Devo)- and let’s face it I’d love to be cleared. Every player in this game would. And since we decided that TUO isn’t actually cleared, this is pointless anyway.

[---]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

So like he told someone else that the two locations he had worked out were A and B, and ten minutes later told me that the two locations he had worked out were B and C.

okay yeah i still don't understand but I will take your word for it

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah no lol I don't remember this. But I it probably happened.

Just read over D1 i love it

Whysper was totally evil.

anyways, as for this its just me, and at the very least NAI and at the most very villagery, and therefore should be ignored or i should be townread for it. Any other conclusions are just wrong and suspicious. :P. (especially coming from someone who has seen my play offsite, and has seen me make read like this offsite. I'm like, 50% sure you specced my champs games mat, tho i'm not quiiiiite suree :P.)

That aside I both agree with the train forming on Mat although i'm not sure about the conclusions of how the others got there. but I have things to do today- such as sit around doing nothing for 4 hours waiting for the finals votes to come in knowing i won't be progressing but being panicked anyways. lol.

Also walking my dog.

I still think Chantara is still more likely village here. Esooa and I seem to have been mindmelding a little so a little trust there. I need to re read why I think TUO is village, and Squirrel is still village.

[Esooa]

how long until EoD?

[---]

1 minute ago, Esooa said:

how long until EoD?

26? hours?

[Esooa]

Oh okay I still have time cool

[Archer]

Looked at D1. The remaining group is all some shade of null. I strongly suspect there’s elim(s) in the set, but I can’t place who they are. 

-Esooa: Feigned newness initially, but freely admitted it afterwards, which is positive. Seems to gravitate towards Illwei interactions and vice versa, which I’m struggling to read.

-Squirrel: Possibly overcompensating.

-Frozen Mint: Started by advocating for all locations to be shared, which is a fun idea, although they later retracted it.

-Mat: I liked them saying Illwei-Azmine was probably v-v yesterday, but since they’ve retracted that, I’m retracting my village read for it. Had that post at the end of D1 that could have been them mistakenly feeling they needed to say something because they were present near rollover. I confess I also got vague evil vibes from them, but I couldn’t identify why so working assumption is that it was because they were talkative, and that’s NAI. I disagree with a few of their reads though, which is notable.

-Illwei: If Illwei is evil, the team is probably Devo, Steel, Esooa, which the option of switching in a TUO, Dalinar, Tani, or Kas. I’m reading Steel as village, but my Devo read is out the window if Illwei is evil. The Illwei wagon came out of nowhere, so you could argue them almost being killed isn’t super AI. As much as my instinct is to trust them for it, based on how it went down, I don’t think that’s a fair assessment. They got lucky if they’re evil though, picking up cover from me, Mat, and Steel.

We have a lot of info on Illwei because of the near death experience. I’ve got them down as not being e-e with Mat, Chantara, Frozen, Squirrel, and TJ. If you’re an alignment scanner, it might be worth your time to figure out how to get a read on them, because it has a high potential payoff.

I was initially going to vote Esooa today, but I don't have a good reason for it. Elk had a vanity vote, so that's a lead anyway. 

Edit: I just remembered why I was sus of Eossa: they were too suspicious of Azmine, like an elim who wanted to justify a bad vote 

Edited September 7, 2021 by Archer

[---]

FYI I won't be around at all for rollover again because i'm at work from 10am-6pm PST

EDIT:

PSA: Illwei will not be revealing her location for alignment scanners. Consider this an Excercise in Reading Illwei. The council has decided, this decision is final.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat]

40 minutes ago, Illwei said:

anyways, as for this its just me, and at the very least NAI and at the most very villagery, and therefore should be ignored or i should be townread for it. Any other conclusions are just wrong and suspicious. :P. (especially coming from someone who has seen my play offsite, and has seen me make read like this offsite. I'm like, 50% sure you specced my champs games mat, tho i'm not quiiiiite suree :P.)

I specced those yeah. Which like sure I misread you as elim in those but I think this is different somehow. Or maybe it’s not. Well I’m not voting you anymore so there’s that I guess.

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

mistakenly feeling they needed to say something because they were present near rollover.

Yeah I admit to doing this regardless of alignment

[---]

Actual picture of the council deciding this:

Spoiler

 

[Mat]

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

Actual picture of the council deciding this:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I think I'm the only one here who actually knows what this means lol

edit: no actually I’m stupid and thought this was a wiml pfp change thing from mu and I didn’t see the edit so ignore this 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

Just watched the new cinderella movie and it feels like a complete joke

i think it was a good joke tho, tbh

[Squirrelwatcher]

Yay I'm back from work

Thoughts incoming after I shower

[Mat]

My reads list remains mostly unchanged but I’d move Elk to Null+. My issue is that I’m confident in my village reads but not my elim ones, which I get is a bit of a paradox but eh

It’d be disappointing if the trains only were limited to me and Elk, since I’m pretty sure it’s v/v. If the same people are fringe voting me and Elk that were fringe voting Az/Illwei, that could clue in to the elims as well as if yesterday was v/v.

[---]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My reads list remains mostly unchanged but I’d move Elk to Null+. My issue is that I’m confident in my village reads but not my elim ones, which I get is a bit of a paradox but eh

It’d be disappointing if the trains only were limited to me and Elk, since I’m pretty sure it’s v/v. If the same people are fringe voting me and Elk that were fringe voting Az/Illwei, that could clue in to the elims as well as if yesterday was v/v.

I dont think its a problem to be more confident in your village read fwiw

[Squirrelwatcher]

On 9/6/2021 at 4:46 PM, Illwei said:

I claimed to Elk

 

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

PSA: Illwei will not be revealing her location for alignment scanners. Consider this an Excercise in Reading Illwei. The council has decided, this decision is final.

Lol

Slight villaread for that because scum probably care more about how they're perceived but still funny

 

[Kasimir]

11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

You do realize the game is tagged with PM unsafety, right?

I did offer not to play for a reason  I feel I'm not really the kind of player you need in this game.

[Archer]

7 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Twice Matrim's soft proposed that he was clear (along with TUO). This raised a lot of red flags. Then Matrim's followed my theory re. Illwei (attempt to pocket?). Placing my vote on Matrim's Dice. 

I'm flipping on Illwei to strong village for one main reason: Illwei didn't vote for Azime day one. 

I'm getting villager vibes from Dalinar, but I want to point out that Illwei wasn't present when the wagon on them formed. I believe they were at work for that 6 or so hour span, so they couldn't have self pressed. 

One thing that's standing out to me about Mat is when they voted TUO they said something like "[vote] As an experiment." It felt like an elim who is trying to head off complaints of trying to make bad wagons later. I've also gotten the sense that they're struggling to pick a good kill choice, which could be because their traditional first picks are their teammates. Steel is village, I'm pretty sure of it, so I dislike that vote. Their tone seems town. 

Congrats, Elk, you out-waited me. Mat  

YO Kas, who ya voting for. I forget if you have a vote down yet

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

YO Kas, who ya voting for. I forget if you have a vote down yet

[OOC: Are you frickin' serious I was the first Elk vote >>

I'm considering now though as Elk is not a top suspicion but I did want to hear from him; less sure if Elk is the person I am most suspicious of and most want to die today. As I noted in my single post today, I am more suspicious of Chantara. I also continue to have negative gut reads on Esooa and recently a bit on Squirrel.

Fair warning I may ask for a pinch-hitter/disappear. My Internet is now crapping out, I have windows of connection and then zilch otherwise, I've spent the entire morning/last night trying to troubleshoot and it's frustrating af.]