Araris Valerian

Long Game 80: Skaa Tenements

595 posts in this topic

4 minutes ago, Esooa said:

I threw up

Metaphorically or literally?

---

Also, not surprised about the nokill.

 

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3 minutes ago, Squirrelwatcher said:

Metaphorically or literally?

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Also, not surprised about the nokill.

 

literally

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9 minutes ago, Esooa said:

I threw up

;-; 

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40 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

TUO did not respond.

I didn't respond because, one, I was stunned, two, I forgot about it. My reaction was along the lines of "is this person crazy? Just subject to new person syndrome? Or is this some crazy master plan?

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Here's what's bugging me. Elk said they learned the four locations last Day. 

Quote

Learning the Messaging, Having the Tenements. Listing the claiming if or if not true. Eliminators having the info, Knowing also should the village. 

Venture, Hasting, Tekiel, Urbain.

I'm skeptical that a villager could have done that. He could include his own location in that list, but any villager who claimed to him would have known that doing so risked being the elim kill. Best case scenario, the three people who claimed to him had different houses, but odds are there'd be some overlap. Is everyone just being really free with their information? Or did he have the benefit of knowing some elim teammates' locations? It's difficult to parse this out without giving the elims some idea of who claimed what, but I think it's worth at least asking if anyone will admit to having claimed to Elk

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2 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm skeptical that a villager could have done that. He could include his own location in that list, but any villager who claimed to him would have known that doing so risked being the elim kill. Best case scenario, the three people who claimed to him had different houses, but odds are there'd be some overlap. Is everyone just being really free with their information? Or did he have the benefit of knowing some elim teammates' locations? It's difficult to parse this out without giving the elims some idea of who claimed what, but I think it's worth at least asking if anyone will admit to having claimed to Elk

I claimed to Elk

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Elk already knew my location, but they didn't know the location somebody I knew.

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I’m aware of some inconsistency with Elk and his location claims. Not sure how to take it, but the general idea is that he claimed to know two locations to PlayerX (PlayerX has told this to me) on Saturday morning, and Elk claimed to know only two locations to me Saturday morning as well, the PM to me being sent after the PM to PlayerX. Thing is, the sets of locations are different.

(My reread progress got halted. Conclusions from that are still coming eventually)

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

[OOC] I told Dev, Matrim's, and The Unknown Order my location. Please do not reveal this location to anyone else. If I die tonight there is a roughly 90% [1-1/(15-5)] chance that one of them is evil. On night three this information becomes meaningless. I would recommend that a village consider switching my location tonight (occurs post-scan). Dev and Matrim's had very different reactions to the same message, therefore I find it likely that they are not both elims (they would have discussed the location share). TUO did not respond.

Dev was the last minute swing vote on day one - I find this suspicious in general (correct me if I am wrong). If he is an elim, it is only worth voting to save another elim (otherwise it is pretty risky to be the swing the vote). Therefore if Dev is an elim, Chandra is likely an elim. The vice versa should also hold.

The fact that I am alive is interesting but not dispositive.

I don't think an elim would have killed you even if you did claim to one. First of all, if you were lying about your location that's a wasted charge. Secondly, if you did die the identities of everyone you claimed to would be revealed and it would be possible to identify who the elim was.

I voted at the end because I don't like to not vote. I voted on one of the leading trains because I wanted my vote to mean something, in this particular case that Illwei wouldn't die C1 like they did in LG 78 and LG 79. I don't know if that's the reason other people were willing to defend her/vote Azmine, but that's something worth looking into this turn.

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37 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I don't know if that's the reason other people were willing to defend her/vote Azmine, but that's something worth looking into this turn.

That was definitely a factor for me. Probably a larger one than I was intending it to be.

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D1 reread notes:

Spoiler
  • Azmine was a terrible kill and I don't know what we were thinking
  • I have zero clue why I village read Illwei. There was no reason to. I think I was mostly just trying not to kill them early again and also not wanting to kill an active person... I'm finding that D1 they made reads that look almost TMI to me because of how random they seem. Things like marking TUO as definite village unless they're teammates with me.
  • Squirrel seems a lot more village to me upon the reread. This probably is also influenced by recent PM interactions. I get like an independent feel from their posts, which is interesting because I normally don't get those kinds of vibes.
  • I stand by my village reads of Esooa and Archer.
  • TUO's strong reaction still pings me, and since no one offered up the research I should do myself I guess I'll have to go do that :P
  • Steel... I get their comments on self-meta and that makes this a really hard read but I still lean elim. There's something about all their posts that sets of my gut in a way that I can't explain, which is bugging me pretty bad tbh. I wish I knew the word to describe the vibe I get off of them. Crafted wasn't right; it's maybe a slight blend of that, with urgency, they feel desperate to add something in a way I think a villager would just shrug off, or go to less extent to try to contribute.
  • I disagree with the reason behind Esooa's read of v!Elk (e!Elk wouldn't have noticed the details they did) Plus with the new weirdness of the location claims and the like I'm unsure where I sit on Elk. Probably null minus.
  • TJ is probably just village.
  • I find Mint's village read of Chantara very interesting, mainly because the question(s) they asked in thread that Mint credited her read to were asked in a way that flowed directly from the thread conversation. It wasn't as if Chantara asked random questions in thread, they were pertaining to an already asked question.
  • Steel's Az vote could suggest Steel/Illwei e/e.
  • Chantara's reads list isn't as bad as I remember. Their Mint read I think is a product of a new player getting pocketed by a village read on them (regardless of Mint's alignment) and the rest seems in line from what I guess I would expect from a new player.
  • Devo's vote would mean more with Illwei's flip.

I could see the Az vote as a train to save e!Illwei, which would incriminate Steel and Devo imo. I would stick Mint here if I'm going for a full-blown team guess (this is a bad team guess) even though she was on Illwei, though Illwei wasn't in danger when the vote was cast and Mint didn't come back during the time Illwei was in danger. So yeah if I had to make a bad team guess rn it'd be Illwei/Mint/Steel/Devo

Ordered Reads List:

  • Esooa
  • Archer
  • Squirrel
  • TJ
  • Dalinar

~

  • TUO (+)
  • Chantara (+)
  • Tani
  • Kas
  • Devo (-)

~

  • Elk
  • Mint
  • Illwei
  • Steel

Edit: Sorry about the double, I forgot no one posted since my last one.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
Formatting
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3 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Dev was the last minute swing vote on day one - I find this suspicious in general (correct me if I am wrong).

So I haven't played in a while but from what I remember, last minute votes are common from Devotary.

Just reading through the new posts right now, will hopefully post more later.

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Hm, you don't get told when you get relocated? Thrilling. Can't claim my location if I'm not even sure where I am. 
It's like being Zoro! Always lost! Also like me irl. 
Honestly, what I really need to do is do a thorough reread, but I'm still getting some homework done, and tomorrow is crazy...
I might need to take a break from SE if things get much more busy than this. 
My one thought at the moment is that when I get back I'll be interested in people flying under the radar, like Tani. But I'll worry about that later. 

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This was meant to be a short look at a few people but then I kept adding people so it’s long.

-v!TJ: I think I always view them as village, but c’mon. They clearly read the thread and had thoughts, and they proposed an awesome gambit! I think if they’d actually done the gambit, it would have cemented their villageness, but they didn’t. And there was little reaction to it, which could be elim teammates knowing not to take the bait. But because I agreed with much of what they said, I’m trusting them for now.

-n!Kas: I kinda liked their vote on Esooa, and their retraction because they’re new makes sense. I wouldn’t have switched to a player off of a hiatus, but that’s their call. There’s little to read, and the vote is a safe one, so they’re null for now.

-n!Dalinar: There was a little bit of a communication barrier, but we got there in the end. I’m not sure why they’d reveal their location and then count of someone using their one-shot ability to switch them elsewhere. I think their analysis is faulty (Devo does that regardless of alignment, ignores possibility they were scanned, ignores chance of villagers sharing information unknowingly with elims etc). Still, I keep thinking, would an elim risk being alignment scanned by claiming to three people D1? Would a villager risk being NKed? Was it their real location? I’m null on them right now. Maybe leaning village because I like their style.

-n!TUO: TUO has a habit of being more engaged when he’s an elim, and therefore they get contribution crusaded less. But anyway, because they do get killed a lot, they have a lower tolerance for votes. Elims generally are more scared by votes than villagers, because they care more about not dying, but TUO is susceptible to pokes because often those pokes stick and they die. They also apply an innocent until proven guilty logic to themselves than few others subscribe to D1, which makes reading their reactions all the more difficult. I don’t like how they moved their vote from me to Mat when I pressured them, as v!TUO should have seen that as confirmation I was voting on villagers like the evil parent burner I am, but I can see how of the two of us, they could find Mat’s piggyback even worse. I’m null reading the whole encounter. Biggest outstanding question about them relates to their interactions with Elk, but I’m following up on that in PMs.  

Sidenote: I think opsec means open secret?

-v!Steel: Their specific vibe is a combination of early game TUO and late Zelda-game Alvron. I’ve personally gotten them killed (as an elim) in two recent games early on, so I think it’s reasonable that they could be overly frustrated when pressured. I like TJ’s read: their rambly post was too blatant to be an attempt at appearing engaged. I know from their Link fake-claim in the Zelda game that they’re capable of better. My biggest outstanding quibble is the vote on Azmine, but I’m reading them as village currently.

-e!Elk: I remain surprised how quickly they learned all the houses, but based on some people saying they told or were approached about it, I’m a little less suspicious of the accomplishment now (pending further verification). I really don’t like their vote on Tani, which came at 40 minutes to rollover and was on someone who had yet to speak (Tani). I feel like it could be because they didn’t want to pick a fight with someone present and draw attention to themselves, or they didn’t want to be on a successful mix and take heat for it. What gives me pause though is that they didn’t need to release the house names like they did, especially if they did end up using an elim teammate’s location to get the list started. Although I don’t doubt someone in the elim doc volunteered to try PM spidering for the info he gathered.

-n!Tani: It’s D2, that’s past the time for contribution crusades. I don’t support voting them.

-e!Chantara: The PM interaction I had with them felt like someone had told them rookies don’t need to be super engaged and they’ll get a pass. Their reads list I’ve discussed already, but I’ll note again that the Illwei vote seemed arbitrary. And I’ve benefited from the ‘if they’re evil, they would have known the rules!’ logic before, it’s not always true; even elims have questions they pose in public, or mistakes they make.

 I imagine the elims had a similar problem to us: there was few solid kill options. Half the players were new or returning, several had been early kills in recent games, and of the remaining, some would have been village read. Since they have great influence over the exe, they would have had to have some sort of discussion about who they feel okay letting die. Azmine was a decent choice. I can see them liking Illwei since they play a lot of games at once anyway (I know Mat saw them as a palpable kill option). Mat, Devo, Kas, and myself rounded out the list, I imagine, minus the elims in that group.

-v!Devo: When I PMed them about the main motivations for their vote, they cited not wanting Illwei to be D1ed again. That was a satisfying answer to me. They always vote late, and usually vote on a main wagon. I like the pragmatism. I’m village reading them.

I think that’s all the easy reads out of the way. I’ll look at Frozen Mint, Illwei, Mat, Esooa (I’m Still a Rockstar), and Squirrelwatcher tomorrow. I’ve got feelings about some of them but for that I’ll actually need to thread trawl. 

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whats your conclusion on steel then

@Illwei, my conclusion is he needs to be more contributional. :P

In all seriousness though, Steel has been an active eliminator before (iirc LG78?), so I don't know why he'd want to try out this method when he's better than that. Still would like to see contributory posts before judging though :P.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

And there was little reaction to it,

Yeah, I'mma complain about this. One of the main reasons to propose a risky but village-helping gambit is to gauge reactions of other players, if they're too enthusiastic about it or if they're too opposing or if they're stoic and poker-face like, the reactions give indications of the players. Archer was like the only person to comment on it smh. 

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Sidenote: I think opsec means open secret?

lmaooooo I keep thinking operation security xDD

So Dalinar has claimed to TUO, Mat and Devotary about their location, and yeah there's a lot of reasons why he might not have been killed as y'all have told like pocketing scope, avoiding suspicion, etc. But there's also the fact the Dalinar could have lied or Dalinar could have been an elim. I donno, I'm finding the 'please don't tell anyone else' statement a bit performative after revealing their location to three players. 

@Devotary of Spontaneity, I understand that you didn't want Illwei to die D1, what's your read on her?

Edited by |TJ|
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It was a quiet night.

Airam primed Kion and kept Kion near, and slept lightly but nothing disturbed him. The way Airam saw it, sleeping with a loaded crossbow wasn't all that safe, but so was lying there waiting for a Ministry agent to off him in his sleep. Or one of Tellam's.

At least Arenta had the decency to leave him alone, for all she insisted on squeezing him dry with her claims of rent owed.

As he locked up the store and headed out to get his morning baywrap, all Airam heard was whispering. People had been scared, he realised. People had wondered if someone else was going to die. 

No one had, but Airam supposed that if people had been safe, and had not told the entire slums where they slept—he revised that belief a few moments later when the baker told him that Stuart Sampson [OOC: Mat] had been sighted running through the slums screaming that Scorched [OOC: TUO] was likely skaa, rather than a Ministry agent. The more Airam heard, the more tenuous it sounded: only if Van wasn't Ministry, because Van had gone around telling half the slums where he slept, why someone would do this Airam didn't know, unless it was part of a ploy or a gambit to elicit information. It wasn't Van's first run, Airam knew that much. [OOC: Dalinar's SE contemporaries with Steel, played Steel's Princess Bride game IIRC, and was an Elim in AG3. Whatever it is, new player weirdness isn't featuring into this.]

And then it turned out that Leek [OOC: Elk] had been going all around the slums as well, telling everyone he knew where everyone was. 

He grunted sourly as he bought a hot tea as well. That was the one thing you could count on, in the slums. Information travelling faster than Arenta's exorbitant rents. Everyone liked to roll the dice.

Still, Airam supposed he thought maybe the Ministry wasn't into guessing. Maybe they'd considered the likelihood that people were lying, or had changed their location. Or maybe someone in that entire tangled mess with Van and Leek was working for the Ministry, and figured the slums'd come down on them like a load of bricks if they killed another skaa. Or it could be a risk-averse group of Ministry agents. Or maybe they had tried and they had failed. 'Course, that meant they were going to be more desperate, then. Airam wasn't sure he liked that idea.

Thing was, Airam didn't like the sound of that Tara girl. [OOC: Chantara] Eron and Ill Way [OOC: Archer and Illwei] had flagged out Tara's behaviour from the previous day, and the more Airam thought about it, the more Airam agreed. Ill Way hadn't been especially aggressive. In that light, Tara claiming that Ill Way was likely a Ministry agent for aggressively defending herself just seemed like someone reaching to try to see if they could rub some suspicion onto Ill Way, see what stuck. Maybe someone was coaching Tara too, telling her where to stick the knife. 'Course, that would be someone on the Ministry end. What interested Airam just as much though was Ill Way's sudden retraction; Ill Way suddenly changing views at the drop of a hat and thinking maybe Tara wasn't all that suspicious after all. 

But Airam thought about it and he didn't think Tara and Ill Way were both working for the Ministry. Either way you cut it, Ill Way had no reason to finger Tara and then no reason to back off just as fast. Wasn't really her style. [OOC: Illwei has no reason to both immediately sus a new player teammate this hard, and no reason to back off after C1.] 'Course, Ill Way wasn't the most predictable skaa in the slums, but even so. 

There was Steel, too. Izi [OOC: Tani] was an easy pick, a safe one, and Airam didn't really like it. Thing was, Arenta didn't stand for laggards in her tenemants. If Izi wasn't paying the rent, she'd be out on her ear by nightfall. So what was the point, really? [OOC: There's an inactivity filter, and it's two cycles. Tani will be removed by D3 if she doesn't post. Now if she does lurk, that's a different issue, but there's no reason to worry too much about her for the moment if she's scheduled to be hit by the filter. Agree with Archer on this.]

Either way, it was still morning, if a little later in the day than Airam'd meant to get up, and he thought that if there was anyone here he'd side-eye, it was probably Leek. Sure, both a Ministry agent and skaa had reason to collect information, but the way Airam saw it, it wasn't just about collecting information, but what you'd planned to do with it. Looked like Van was trying to exculpate a few players, which seemed a bit of a skaa thing to do, though it was thin gruel. Stuart probably wasn't in cahoots with Van either: the speed with which he'd run screaming through the slums seemed to imply he was a skaa who'd gotten a bit over-excited and lost his head.

So the real question was Leek. Leek'd been fishing around. What did he have to show for it? What were his plans?

[OOC: So I'd be tempted to lean Village on Archer for helpfulness but Archer is one case I'd always asterisk because Archer has deepwolf tendencies, or as OOG!Eiwlil said forever ago, effortposting never clears Archer :P And opsec means operational security, so PM safety but also thread safety seriously guys am I the only one who didn't tell the entire bloody Village where I am? No real opinion on TJ for now.]

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5 hours ago, Esooa said:

Why am I so town read for you @Matrim's Dice

Bit of gut, added with our general agreement of almost everything. PM and thread interactions with you seem genuine, as well as your D1 as a whole.

And I don't think an elim would ask this question. They'd totally just let the read exist happily untouched.

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8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

And opsec means operational security, so PM safety but also thread safety seriously guys am I the only one who didn't tell the entire bloody Village where I am?

You do realize the game is tagged with PM unsafety, right? :P

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I haven't told anyone where I am, and don't plan on doing so. 

Archer, it is true I can do better, particularly when I have time and energy to devote to a game. But as noted, school has started, and I have a lot less time available nowadays. I plan on helping as much as I have time for, but like I doubt I'll have time to get back on today. Just got a short break right now. Therefore I'm going to be more cagey, and generally less optimal than my best possible playing. 

If at any point I do feel like I no longer have enough time for the game at all, I'll just end up asking for a pinch hitter. 

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11 hours ago, Archer said:

I’ll note again that the Illwei vote seemed arbitrary

To be fair, on D1 most votes are arbitrary. What little is known is based on gut feelings and reactions. I was actually debating between two people, but I felt Illwei was more likely to be an elim. Tbh I don't feel as strongly that Illwei is an elim. But I'll come around with another reads list later. I want to reread through the game so far and reassess before I dig in my heels on some of these reads.

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47 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I don't think an elim would ask this question. They'd totally just let the read exist happily untouched.

eh

I've done it before as elim for townpoints

though idk anything about esooa's meta or the site meta here so it could be a little valid ig

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edit: possibly revising my opinion on chantara. something about their last post seemed odd to me.

Edited by Squirrelwatcher
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2 hours ago, Chantara said:

To be fair, on D1 most votes are arbitrary. What little is known is based on gut feelings and reactions. I was actually debating between two people, but I felt Illwei was more likely to be an elim. Tbh I don't feel as strongly that Illwei is an elim. But I'll come around with another reads list later. I want to reread through the game so far and reassess before I dig in my heels on some of these reads.

Can you talk to me about where else you've had experience with mafia?

EDIT: @The Unknown Order has your read on mat changed at all today

Edited by Illwei
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9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can you talk to me about where else you've had experience with mafia?

So, this is my first forum game, but I played werewolf and mafia in-person plenty of times, which is why SE was recommended to me. But really it's just logic and rhetoric. If you think about it, we don't have any information D1, it's all panic and little to no evidence for who is on what side. It's not until we get through the first night, we get enough of a sample of everyone to start really seeing the little things in their writing that make us lean one way or another, all depending on interpretation.

I know this sounds like I'm using a new player card, and I know that probably none of this will convince anyone either way.

 

Tara stammers "I just moved here."

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