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1 hour ago, Archer said:

So the takeaways here are if you’re village, using your Shardblade to kill an elim today is a good idea.

:thonk:

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

My issue is I can't see an Elim Ash being this completely inactive, though he's apparently resurrecting now. 

:thonk:

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Ashbringer, my fellow camper, did you play a good card C1?

:thonk:

Or more seriously, no, nothing that would have impacted much. I only saw the first half of that cycle, and nothing had really stuck out at me.

 

I'd be interested in seeing what Drake's reactions to a major lead on him. I'm feeling good about Kas (surprise), but Archer Drake Araris all are a bit off to me. I'll start with Araris, for something specific and something I'm admittedly rather biased on:

On 8/3/2021 at 11:12 AM, Araris Valerian said:

I think there's some potential for Ash/Archer to be e/e. It's really only based on Archer withdrawing from Ash when he did (and also not going back when Kas voted there).

Why start with me and not Archer?

 

Edit: Also, Ash has been green for a while, so I'm trying something new.

Edited by Ashbringer
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1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Low info kill would have to be Steel or TUO, Steel more than TUO. Paradoxically gives me more confidence in Village Archer though I'm sure he'll change his Elim strategic doctrine at some point. 

To be fair, after my last elim game, Mat would definitely be high on my kill list. :P

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

:thonk:

:thonk:

:thonk:

Or more seriously, no, nothing that would have impacted much. I only saw the first half of that cycle, and nothing had really stuck out at me.

Edit: Also, Ash has been green for a while, so I'm trying something new.

I like it! But my first reaction was why is Steel still posting? 

I asked about the card thing because I card blocked you C1. :P I wanted to see if you noticed. An elim submitting the kill wouldn't have, because they didn't have a card to be noticeably blocked. It's imperfect because for example if you submitted a block or protect of your own, it probably wouldn't register, but it's interesting that your response fits within my realm of possible eliminess. 

Also, I made an emoji snowman out of your post, you're welcome. 

Araris I'm not super comfortable with Drake and Ash being my fellow voters on Araris. I think Kas being evil is unlikely enough that I'm just going to ignore that possibility. 9v;2e could work with a lot of village Clevers to limit card play, but I think it's best to assume three elims. And I'm sticking to my TUO is village read. So. 

I think on paper a Drake, Ashbringer, Fab team works. Two experienced players plus the socially untouchable rookie. It would explain the elim apathy C1 when none of them were in danger. And why Fab and Drake voted together on Kas C1. And why Drake was so suspicious of Kas and TUO. 

I'm also pretty sure Araris sussed me for moving off Ashbringer at one point, so I've got them down as not e-e. 

The good thing about that team is we actually have a shot at village consolidation (v!Fab is a problem). I'm keeping that in mind. 

But for now, here's that pressure on you, Drake, that Ashbringer asked for.  Drake

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46 minutes ago, Archer said:

I like it! But my first reaction was why is Steel still posting? 

I asked about the card thing because I card blocked you C1. :P I wanted to see if you noticed. An elim submitting the kill wouldn't have, because they didn't have a card to be noticeably blocked. It's imperfect because for example if you submitted a block or protect of your own, it probably wouldn't register, but it's interesting that your response fits within my realm of possible eliminess. 

Also, I made an emoji snowman out of your post, you're welcome. 

:P

Well, that makes sense. Because by "nothing that would have impacted much", I meant... "nothing". I didn't use a card. Which is on me, because I'd meant to send an action in before I lost cell coverage, but... I forgot/had more important things to do with fleeting cell coverage.

But I can say that I was completely out of cell service for the last third of the cycle (@Devotary of Spontaneity, can I put that in blue if it's true, or is bluetexting retroactively not allowed? I forget), so if I put in the Elim kill I'd have to have done it without knowledge of that last third of C1, which includes who would die that turn.

I was also completely off for C2 (or I may have had time to look at the C2 post for who died, I can't remember, but I definitely didn't look at anything beyond that until C2 had ended). 

So... yup. Make of that what you will.

I also appreciate the snowman!

 

I will also say - if we're having consternation about kill decisions, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Elims are letting Fabian decide kills. That seems like something Drake or Kas or Steel would cook up (although I suspect E!Araris loves putting in the kills too much to suggest it). I could also attempt my 101%-success-rate kill analysis. That always works and never just highlights midactivity players. (Although there really aren't any midactivity players... hmm. Might actually try that.)

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37 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But I can say that I was completely out of cell service for the last third of the cycle (@Devotary of Spontaneity, can I put that in blue if it's true, or is bluetexting retroactively not allowed? I forget)

You can retroactively use bluetext for "real life events/situations that affect your ability to play".

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47 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You can retroactively use bluetext for "real life events/situations that affect your ability to play".

Okay, cool. Then due to camping largely outside of cell service and having other responsibilities, I missed this game from approximately Noon on Monday/last third of C1 until the end of C2, with a possible exception of seeing the events of C1's rollover.

Ah, bluetext. The friend of many a tired soul. 

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VC 3.1 robots are stealing all of our jobs Illwei how does it feel
Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall
DrakeMarshall (1): Archer
Ashbringer (1): Kasimir

So, typically this close to LyLo you expect a train that's on the right track to have basicaly no resistance. I'm honestly kind of bummed out that things are still basically up in the air.

It is probably a poor use of my time to respond to these:

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I'd be interested in seeing what Drake's reactions to a major lead on him.

?

?

..?

I..

I get it.

3 hours ago, Archer said:

I think Kas being evil is unlikely enough that I'm just going to ignore that possibility.

SwcVXn5.jpg

3 hours ago, Archer said:

Araris I'm not super comfortable with Drake and Ash being my fellow voters on Araris. I think Kas being evil is unlikely enough that I'm just going to ignore that possibility. 9v;2e could work with a lot of village Clevers to limit card play, but I think it's best to assume three elims. And I'm sticking to my TUO is village read. So. 

I think on paper a Drake, Ashbringer, Fab team works. Two experienced players plus the socially untouchable rookie. It would explain the elim apathy C1 when none of them were in danger. And why Fab and Drake voted together on Kas C1. And why Drake was so suspicious of Kas and TUO. 

I'm also pretty sure Araris sussed me for moving off Ashbringer at one point, so I've got them down as not e-e. 

The good thing about that team is we actually have a shot at village consolidation (v!Fab is a problem). I'm keeping that in mind. 

But for now, here's that pressure on you, Drake, that Ashbringer asked for.  Drake

Okay so here's some reasons why I'm a Voidbringer. I'm going to keep most of my information secret though because this cycle's discussion is kinda a throwaway tbh.

  • You are correct, I was not ever in danger during C1, so a hypothetical eliminator team including myself never had any reason to do anything with the votes.
  • I'm not a Cheater. And we all know that Cheaters are bad guys, or at least somebody gave sorta shoddy reasons for that C1. I am not biased at all but I thought they were terrible reasons.
  • In order to belabor the point that I'm not a Cheater, and just generally to leave all of my actions as unaccounted for as possible, I will now refuse to elaborate in any way, since doing so would be pretty risky:
    • On the first cycle I didn't use the One of Swords on Kasimir and consequently didn't learn he had a One of Pens.
    • On the first cycle I didn't cheat in the Two of Swords (obviously I kept the Two of Swords, because I am good at reading the rules and knew how the Cheater rule worked and that it cost a card to use) and consequently didn't get a choice of [One of Spears, Two of Guards, Two of Pens] for next cycle.
    • On the second cycle I didn't draw the One of Spears and consequently I definitely didn't try to cheat with that card.
    • On the second cycle I didn't plan to whip out [Two of Pens] at the last second and try to vote switch + vote manipulate in order to hammer Araris, because moving slowly and deliberately is important in this game and you may not know it but I am a very risk-averse player :P This plan could have worked, though, because Araris had votes on them just before rollover, and nobody else had a clear lead as far as votes were concerned. So I definitely didn't change my mind and play [Two of Guards] to attempt to protect you, Archer. Fortunately, I wasn't roleblocked or anything. (From what y'alls are saying it sounds like I am probably correct about this, but also doesn't a roleblock stop the night kill?)
    • As for what cards I have right now, well, good news I will definitely tell you that right now :D
  • I don't really understand feeling wary about an Araris vote (it had too much opposition before you switched tbh), but.. Do you have a reason for the new vote, other than that [Drake, Ashbringer, Fabien] is one reasonable elim team configuration that you can conceive of?
  • Tbh if you think [Drake, Ashrbinger, Fabien] isn't a team, then could you vote for one of those other guys? :P Ashbringer doesn't even have any votes on them already, they are a much worse choice than I am :P There are tons of other people I could be teammates with by my reckoning, and I seriously would have a bunch of complaints with you if you voted up one of those 2 guys in particular. If you think this is a bluff, please don't call it.
2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I will also say - if we're having consternation about kill decisions, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Elims are letting Fabian decide kills. That seems like something Drake or Kas or Steel would cook up (although I suspect E!Araris loves putting in the kills too much to suggest it). I could also attempt my 101%-success-rate kill analysis. That always works and never just highlights midactivity players. (Although there really aren't any midactivity players... hmm. Might actually try that.)

Yeah, that pretty much would be my style :D I hate letting other people put in the actual kill order, but I could care less if I had any sort of input in the actual decision making process beforehand.

Tbh the main hallmark with me is probably that I am very restrained when it comes to making control kills and the like :D

Overall, none of the NK choices actually fit my playstyle very well, imo, and exactly for the reasons you said. I largely disagree with how the NK has been used in this game, in principle. The only thing I might agree with is that I probably would be pretty happy to attack Matrim early in a game a second time in a row without a solid reason to do that.

Take that however you won't.

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4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I will also say - if we're having consternation about kill decisions, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Elims are letting Fabian decide kills. That seems like something Drake or Kas or Steel would cook up (although I suspect E!Araris loves putting in the kills too much to suggest it). I could also attempt my 101%-success-rate kill analysis. That always works and never just highlights midactivity players. (Although there really aren't any midactivity players... hmm. Might actually try that.)

Then we have a problem, because Steel is dead and Village, bro.

I've not been an Elim in six years - seven maybe, I can't be bothered to check when MR3 was. LG20 doesn't count because I had to step out due to having surgery and didn't even get to C3. I don't know what my own Elim profile is anymore, so I'm surprised that anyone on this forum who isn't Wyrm feels confident predicting what Evil Kas will do. That being said, if my impulses are any judge, I'm very much a control and threat kill player. And Archer has called me out in a different game on the fact I don't play risky - overly so. The fact Drake or Archer or Araris aren't dead and Steel was is already too spicy from my point-of-view :P Storms, the fact the Elim team in AG7 was comfortable with a 50-50 chance their teammate died is already too risky for my blood.

Edited to add 2: Just as a reminder, you're dealing with the guy who roleclaimed Beedle D1 rather than deal with a 50% chance of being lynched if Pyro self-presed. That's the sort of risk tolerance I have in general.

6 hours ago, Archer said:

To be fair, after my last elim game, Mat would definitely be high on my kill list. :P

Mat, yes. It's the Steel that doesn't fit with your profile, IMO. And you were active enough as a QF54 Elim that I can't see you going 'welp' and letting your teammates decide in a pool that presumably included me, Drake, and Araris. Basically if you're Elim, and that's the way the kill pool worked out, it'd have to be you, Araris, and Drake, I almost think. Maybe not Araris - I think your control doctrine would be fine excluding him.

But then that doesn't make sense to me because this game is so low-activity you (in this hypothetical team) might as well have just NKed me or Araris and grabbed full thread control. I also think I'd be a better control kill choice than Araris because Araris's Elim streak tends to get him sused in terms of rallying the Village. Taking out a potential Village rally point would be down your alley. Of course, recent games may have dropped me on the threat radar, but we're talking the context of this game.

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:
    • As for what cards I have right now, well, good news I will definitely tell you that right now :D

So let me get this right.

C1 - You started with the One of Swords and Two of Swords. You traded in the Two of Swords for the Two of Pens, and used the One of Swords on me.
C2 - You now have Two of Guards, Two of Pens and One of Spears. You didn't use Two of Pens, but you used Two of Guards to protect Archer. You may or may not have used One of Spears to cheat.

Interesting lie, Drake. Because I used the Two of Swords on you last cycle, and based on the card OoA, Two of Swords comes last, meaning I should see all the cards you used before any cards were gained. Trading in Two of Pens for cheating instead of One of Spears is unlikely move for a player, Village or Elim. 

The only card you had was One of Spears.

Edited to add 3: This means I'm not buying the story of trying to hammer Araris or trying to protect Archer. You could only do one, and you claimed to have used One of Spears to cheat. Moreover, you don't actually have the Two of Pens anymore. Something's not right here.

Edited to add: @Archer, I'm interested that you said during C2 that my being the tiebreaker was a "Village problem." Elim slip there?

Edited by Kasimir
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31 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

The only card you had was One of Spears.

Nah, this result sounds fake to me.

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So let me get this right.

C1 - You started with the One of Swords and Two of Swords. You traded in the Two of Swords for the Two of Pens, and used the One of Swords on me.
C2 - You now have Two of Guards, Two of Pens and One of Spears. You didn't use Two of Pens, but you used Two of Guards to protect Archer. You may or may not have used One of Spears to cheat.

Correct.

Where do you think I got the Two of Guards from? It was within my abilities to choose that card and also obtain the Two of Pens.

26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Trading in Two of Pens for cheating instead of One of Spears is unlikely move for a player, Village or Elim.

 

27 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Drake

I--

Did--

Kas are you voting during a possible LyLo based on something you said was NAI?

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Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

Kas are you voting during a possible LyLo based on something you said was NAI?

Did I stutter? Did I say this was my final vote? We're not even halfway through the cycle and you're already panicking because I put a vote on you?

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20 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Where do you think I got the Two of Guards from? It was within my abilities to choose that card and also obtain the Two of Pens.

See, here's the thing.

One of the reasons I'd actually relaxed my suspicions of you is the fact you had a lone card, One of Spears. In my view, you're one of the Elim team best positioned to make the kill due to time flexibility, and the fact you had a single card gives me weak confident [Edit: confidence] you're using card actions rather than making the NK. Of course this is defeasible - you could be letting another teammate stick in the knife. If so, it'd have to be Araris or Archer. I don't have enough data on Ash, it sure as hell isn't me, and I'd like to know how Fabien can put in a kill when he hasn't been online since Wednesday 0348hrs GMT+8.

Or TUO, I suppose. Light Village isn't confirmed Village.

( @Lotus, can you confirm that a player must send in kill orders via the GM PM? You're not accepting NKs from the Elim doc?)

My issue isn't with the Two of Guards per se. My issue is that you started C2 with three cards and were scanned to only have the One of Spears. You claimed to have used the Two of Guards, so what happened to the Two of Pens?

My read is you're either lying about having vote manip or you're lying about trying to protect Archer for Village cred. I'm more wary of the latter, and eh whatever about the former.

Edited to add: Fair warning, I'm gonna do the thing where I think aloud in the thread again.

Let's go with the crack possibility I suppose. If TUO is Elim, it's likely to be as part of a three-man team. I can't see a teammate failing to protect TUO on realising that TUO wasn't coming online in time to self-pres. But if we postulate protection, it'd just have to be Archer. There's no one else in that scenario who could be it. 

Thing is, as Archer pointed out, if he'd wanted to protect TUO, he should've added to the three-vote train on me, which I agree would be a better move, as I wouldn't flip. It could be Archer favours splinter-train tactics instead since they generally tend to be less overt, and also TUO had a card. But I feel like this is a crack enough possibility I'm not giving too much credence on it.

My current state of credences, in crude form before I do proper reads:

Village

Evil

TUO (weak)

Araris (profile, pool, PoE)

Ash (weak)

Fabien (????)

Drake (weak)

 

Archer (weak)

 

I just culled this by a very weak PoE. I looked at everyone I had weak Village credences on and stuffed everyone else into the Evil section. Which to me reads like I have a number of mistakes somewhere. Inactive new Elims isn't impossible. Being inactive doesn't mean Fabien can't be Elim, just means he can't put in the kill, isn't an immediate threat, and is a warm body between the Village and loss at this point in time if Villager.

My credences push me more to Araris and to be fair, I am tempted to make Araris my final vote. I just don't believe in deciding a train before the halfway mark of the cycle, and Meta always told me to keep my suspicions fluid, so I try. This sometimes leads to awkward situations like reversing course on a trust oh, about two hours to rollover and trying to get him lynched.

So I guess let me try to look at my weak trusts again.

Ash:

-Just the reasoning that Elim Ash wouldn't be that dead TBH. Very weak because I feel as though Elim Ash would at least vote or try some sort of perfunctory post, just to appear present. Could be that Ash is really that busy because that's just how life is.

TUO:

-Honestly, I haven't liked TUO's voting patterns much. That hasty D1 retraction, and that early, stable vote on Striker does make TUO a peripheral Elim candidate. I guess I might be okay re-adding TUO into the pool of suspicion. Certain recent events have left me cautious of putting too much credence on the occurrences of D1 lynches. I feel like what Archer said D2 isn't wrong either - that the fact TUO has a card might've let his teammates feel there was some kind of safeguard, so they didn't need to intervene, though perhaps they would have if I hadn't. ...God I should've Two of Swords him eh. Whoops. 

I don't know. I guess doing up this list makes me feel like I have overstated the strength of my Village credences in TUO. Maybe I should try ranking these four players afterwards.

Drake:

-I feel like his early strategy was designed to avoid being overly-scrutinised for voting, but I can't disagree that he's been active, engaged, and at least apparently trying to solve things. The card scan makes me a bit more willing to say he's a Villager, but only by a bit, due to all the possible confounding factors. I'm wary of a potential false Two of Guards claim, which might be a response to Archer's suspicion.

Archer:

-Generally getting helpful and engaged Villager vibes. Defeasible because Archer's Elim profile is a known powerwolf. Archer's voting patterns aren't peripheral but they do tend to be stable, which is fair but can also be a warning sign. I agree not everyone is kayana enough to change their vote seven times in a cycle ( :P ) but stability can be an Elim as they already know what the answer is, and where they want the cycle to go. Also what I commented before on kill profile. I guess of all the weak trusts, potentially strongest in Archer, but I'm either getting an eh gut feeling or my paranoia is rearing up again.

Fabien, we already know. Opportunistic and peripheral voting pattern, and then just never showed up again so it's impossible to really change/get a new read. Araris, I've mentioned as well.

Time to re-read and re-rank after I get a life, I guess.

Edited by Kasimir
what is grammar
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2 hours ago, Lotus said:

I can confirm this.

Thanks!

I guess if I think about it this way: if I were more certain about Fabien, I'd be more gung-ho about just voting him. We know that one person does not an Elim team make, and honestly I have no other data points than his initial voting pattern which still raises a red flag for me. Since we're at lylo or presumably at lylo, and we know he couldn't have submitted the Elim kill, I'm inclined to go back and try to scrutinise my reads and decide who I have the highest credence in being Elim.

Ideally, we'd take out an active Elim. Not so ideally, honestly any Elim will do, since that's what gets us out of lylo, though I guess we'll be in perma-lylo (hello lylo hello lylo hello lylo - God am I beginning to hate this phase of the game) so it's touch and go anyway, but that's when we go to the "Is Fabien really our best shot at bagging an Elim?" question. The answer may very well be yes but I am not yet prepared to say so.

I'm interested in why Archer is now suspicious of being joined on an Araris vote by Drake and Ash. They're in his Elim pool but not everyone in his Elim pool is surely Elim. You've got Araris and Ash down as not E/E but I'm curious why you would think so, as it's still fairly young in the cycle, and Araris has not put Ash under serious end cycle pressure.

Edited to add: I am starting to think Striker played a card and was card-blocked. Striker was getting lynched and then swapped at 0000hrs precisely to Fabien. It could just be showing his suspicions but he hasn't really pointed too hard at Fabien before this. TUO was his first, and Drake his secondary. It was too late to really hope to invite anyone to switch, so I suspect he had One of Pens and likely also hoped Araris was double-voting or that the extra vote, if peeled, would go to the Fabien wagon over the Drake wagon. It's not an awful gamble since it does put things 50-50 at taking his suspect out with him. If so, I suspect Striker got card-blocked at the time he set up the tie, or a little after.

Anyone want to admit to cardblocking Striker?

Edited by Kasimir
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Okay, lets see what I can do here. For starters, we are at LyLo only under certain circumstances. Namely, that Fabien is not an elim, or that there are 3 elims, or that there are 2 elims and they pulled a Shardblade. And any of this is negated by a village Shardblade (assuming they can guess correctly).

So it seems like the best course of action for this cycle is to ignore Fabien and assume 3 elims. Ignoring Fabien is a little painful, but if he is elim, based on his lack of activity, the elims won't have a voting majority next cycle.

Next up is Kas. There was discussion earlier in the game about the viability of an elim GC with a 3-person team. Certainly, if Kas is elim and Fabien is village, the game is already over, assuming Fabien remains inactive. So I don't think there's a whole lot of value in pursuing Kas this cycle either. Also Kas has been generally helpful and trying to solve the game, so he gets a village read independent of role stuff.

TUO was linked to Kas during C1, but the link is rather weaker than I originally thought, as Kas pointed out last turn. All the final votes on him D1 were village. Really not a whole lot to go on here, especially because TUO is kinda just playing like he usually does, trying to copy my signature strategy. He doesn't really have a strong link with other players, and that's making this hard.

Archer has been pretty active this game. We had early pressure D1 on him from Mat and Drake, and Mat has since flipped village. I voted alongside Archer on Ashbringer, and Archer ultimately moved to Elandera near the end. So potential teammates are Ash, like I mentioned earlier, or Drake, for the D1 vote and retract. Last cycle, Archer voted on me before moving to Striker, who died. Drake and Archer did vote together that cycle. And given what's played out so far this cycle, and could see a Drake/Archer/Ash elim team.

If for some reason both Fabien and TUO are elims, I need to pick one out of Ash/Archer/Drake. But metagaming a bit, I don't think both Fabien and TUO would be elims together. Too much chance of having a really low activity elim team. So that means at least 2 out of Ash/Archer/Drake. Ash hasn't really given much, so that means I can ignore him and just look at Drake. Who I don't want to read any posts from, as entertaining as they have been to read up to this point.

Drake wasn't really under a lot of pressure C1, just a brief stint with Kas and TUO voting on him. And he ended on Kas. Honestly, I've been reading the Drake/Kas interactions this game as pretty v/v. Although that impression comes from a game where I was interacting with Drake as an elim, so IDK. I guess I think villagers have more incentive to butt heads with each other than elims with villagers. 

To cap it off, I'm not really sure there is anything I can say in my own personal defense, but I've been aligned evil the last 5 games I've played, so if someone wants to compare my playing and look at my elim profile, there's plenty of material available to you :). At this point I should run a game where all the elims are the various elim RP characters I've had during this streak. Maybe all the villagers will be Kasimir clones, given his rather long (time-wise, at least) village streak.

I guess from most to least suspect would be something like Fabien, Archer, Ash, Drake, TUO, Kas. And the team is likely 3 out of the top 4. Should be pretty hard to get this wrong, so I'll vote Archer.

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Oof. Sorry Araris, I think you ninjaed me. @Devotary of Spontaneity, do you need me to cancel that edit and repost or will the current set-up be fine?

Edit: @Araris Valerian, I'm not sure I follow why we're at lylo if Fabien isn't an Elim. Fabien shouldn't, by Lotus's ruling, be considered inactive just yet due to the two cycle inactivity requirement. There is also no filter in place.

Edited to add 2: 

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

At this point I should run a game where all the elims are the various elim RP characters I've had during this streak. Maybe all the villagers will be Kasimir clones, given his rather long (time-wise, at least) village streak.

Sounds like a grumpy old guy face-off :ph34r:

Edited by Kasimir
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16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edit: @Araris Valerian, I'm not sure I follow why we're at lylo if Fabien isn't an Elim. Fabien shouldn't, by Lotus's ruling, be considered inactive just yet due to the two cycle inactivity requirement. There is also no filter in place.

The Fabien being an elim thing only applies to a 2-person elim team. In which case, since Fabien hasn't been voting, we are at 4-2, which is essentially LyLo, although the outcome would probably come down to what cards people draw. I'm basically saying that we can't count on village!Fabien's vote today.

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1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

The Fabien being an elim thing only applies to a 2-person elim team. In which case, since Fabien hasn't been voting, we are at 4-2, which is essentially LyLo, although the outcome would probably come down to what cards people draw. I'm basically saying that we can't count on village!Fabien's vote today.

Right, yeah. I'm going to proceed under the lylo assumption and re-evaluate if it turns out to not be, though. I'd rather have that buffer :P 

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1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

The secondary issue is that village!Fabien and a 3-person elim team kinda just stinks. Even perfectly guessing the elim team here the game will come down to luck of the card draw, or Fabien returning.

It does, but there's nothing we can do about that, and no reason Lotus et al would have been able to predict this prior to the game actually starting. I think we have to wait two cycles before Lotus will replace Fabien which is unfortunate but that's the effect of her inactivity rules. I'd just like to focus on finding an Elim today, and if it ends, it ends, but getting one will buy us a tiny bit of breathing room.

We're generally losing Archer anyway, which is fair, but is going to be a problem if Archer is Village because we do need active Village voting, and one way or another, the kindness of RNGesus.

I'm sticking by my Drake vote for the moment as something still doesn't smell right and I suspect Striker was card-blocked, which again resolves to a very narrow list of possibilities. But I fully intend to do some more analysis in the morning.

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10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

 

SwcVXn5.jpg

 

[:D this is fabulous 

Of my four-person elim suspect pool, one person is village. Therefore no interactions between members of the pool are v-v. So if you take Drake and Ashbringer's votes as face value, both of them wanting to kill Araris can't be doing so in good faith. At least one of them is evil, and more likely, both of them are evil and want to kill the only villager they viably can with the exe.
The one complication is hammering, but since I have a self-imposed mid-cycle deadline to come to a decision, I'm hoping the elims are first trying to force a mix. It makes sense because a Shardblade kill extending the game is a good hammer deterrent. Also, if they're working around an inactive elim, they probably don't have the numbers to do it anyway.
Speaking of Fab, I don't support killing them. I think they're evil, but I'd rather focus on the most catchable elim, and that's someone who is here and talking. I get nervous about exing people who aren't here to respond. An Araris-Drake-Ashbringer team is still possible, so I'd prefer a pick with a larger sample size of posts to get a bead on.
I feel like Ashbringer was intentionally cagey about their C1 card play. I didn't expect them to admit to having not played any card, which would fit with an elim submitting the NK. I think Mat is enough of a perennial threat that the elims could have decided early to kill him, then Ashbringer did it and dipped. His absence is NAI to me, since from the looks of it, he really did have limited screen time and IRL does have priority, regardless of alignment.
Drake also has some interesting card play, if Kas is to be believed. I'm going to let Kas follow that lead because as excited as I am to see the card mechanic come into play, I'm struggling to follow waht happened there.
You can build an elim team around any role, so falling back on Cheaters are villagey is a weak defence. And suggesting we split the vote isn't a great look either. Also, I feel like the elims would feel better about killing Mat because of how short this game is.
Kas, I believe the comment was more of a 'this is a problem for the village to solve because the elims are happy with the status quo' than a 'the village is in trouble, MWA hahah >:)'. Also, I didn't cardblock Striker.
I keep seeing new post notifications so I'm gonna post this then respond to whatever you've all been saying.

Edit: Oi! Not a fan of that vote. And either way the implications are bad. E!Araris and v!Fab means we're in trouble. V!Araris is workable, but those reads open up the possibility of a split village vote. I suppose it could be e!Araris and v!Ashbringer, in which case we're in a better spot, but I need to do a  revaluation 

Edited by Archer
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Hmmm. I think I have a way to resolve the Drake issue. If I am correct, it's a misunderstanding/miscommunication.

@Lotus - I'd like a clarification of the Cheating rules. I'm going to give you a scenario. Please tell me if I am correct in surmising this is how it works.

Wyrm is a Cheater. 

Suppose that Wyrm begins the game C1 with the One of Spears and One of Pens.

Wyrm uses his Cheat action. He sacrifices the One of Pens to gain a card. You present him with three options during C2 (well, rollover) [Two of Pens, One of Swords, Two of Guards.] The One of Pens is already written-off. At any point during C2, terminating at rollover, Wyrm is allowed to select one of these three cards. Selection does not cost an action as he has already spent his role action C1 on this. 

So Wyrm can select and use the Two of Guards and then change his mind and go for the Two of Pens. It's allowed because it's 3C1 and the role action has already been spent. Whatever he confirms in the GM PM at rollover is final. Moreover, he is allowed to use the card in the same Turn it is selected.

Am I correct in my understanding?

Edited to add: Here are two more questions I'd like to build into this scenario.

A. What would someone who scans Wyrm during C1 with a Two of Swords see?

B. What would someone who scans Wyrm during C2 with a Two of Swords see?

Edited by Kasimir
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2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Hmmm. I think I have a way to resolve the Drake issue. If I am correct, it's a misunderstanding/miscommunication.

@Lotus - I'd like a clarification of the Cheating rules. I'm going to give you a scenario. Please tell me if I am correct in surmising this is how it works.

Wyrm is a Cheater. 

Suppose that Wyrm begins the game C1 with the One of Spears and One of Pens.

Wyrm uses his Cheat action. He sacrifices the One of Pens to gain a card. You present him with three options during C2 (well, rollover) [Two of Pens, One of Swords, Two of Guards.] The One of Pens is already written-off. At any point during C2, terminating at rollover, Wyrm is allowed to select one of these three cards. Selection does not cost an action as he has already spent his role action C1 on this. 

So Wyrm can select and use the Two of Guards and then change his mind and go for the Two of Pens. It's allowed because it's 3C1 and the role action has already been spent. Whatever he confirms in the GM PM at rollover is final. Moreover, he is allowed to use the card in the same Turn it is selected.

Am I correct in my understanding?

Edited to add: Here are two more questions I'd like to build into this scenario.

A. What would someone who scans Wyrm during C1 with a Two of Swords see?

B. What would someone who scans Wyrm during C2 with a Two of Swords see?

You are correct in your understanding

A. If Wyrm were to be scanned during C1, the scanner would see his starting hand of [One of Spears, One of Pens]

B. If Wyrm were to be scanned during C2, the scanner would see [One of Spears] as the cards he is offered to cheat with are not considered to be in his hand until he chooses them.

aaaaaand then because I'm supposed to be a VC bot, right right.


Votecount 3.1

Araris (1): Drake
Drake (1): Archer
Archer (1): Araris

Previous:

Spoiler

Day 1 Ending: 

Quote

Elandera (3): Archer, Matrims Dice, Kasimir
The Unknown Order (2): Elandera, Striker
Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall
Ashbringer (1): Araris Valerian
Not Voting (3): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, The Unknown Order

VC 1.0 (8/1, 10:50AM, PST)

Spoiler


Not Voting (11): Matrims Dice, The Unknown Order, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Araris Valerian,
Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien

VC 1.1 (8/1, 2:50PM, PST)

Spoiler


Drake (2): Kasimir, The Unknown Order
Striker (1): Araris Valerian
Not Voting (8): Matrims Dice, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien

VC 1.2 (8/1, 5:10PM, PST)

Spoiler


Drake (2): Kasimir, The Unknown Order
Archer (2): Matrims Dice, DrakeMarshall
Striker (1): Araris Valerian
Ashbringer (1): Archer
Not Voting (5): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Fabien

VC 1.3 (8/1, 11:50PM, PST)

Spoiler


Archer (2): Matrims Dice, DrakeMarshall
Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian
Drake (1): The Unknown Order
Kasimir (1): Fabien
Araris Valerian (1): Kasimir
Steeldancer (1): StrikerEZ
Not Voting (3): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera

VC 1.4 (8/2, 12:50PM, PST)

Spoiler


Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall
Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian
Drake (1): The Unknown Order
Araris Valerian (1): Kasimir
Steeldancer (1): StrikerEZ
Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrim

VC 1.5 (8/3, 12:30 AM, PST)

Spoiler


Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall
Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian
Araris Valerian (2): Kasimir, Striker
The Unknown Order (1): Matrims Dice
Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrims Dice, The Unknown Order

Day 2 Final:

Quote

StrikerEZ (4): The Unknown Order, Archer, Kasimir, DrakeMarshall
Fabien (2): Araris Valerian, StrikerEZ
DrakeMarshall (1): Steeldancer
Not Voting (2): Ashbringer, Fabien

Spoiler

VC 2.0 (8/3, 10:30AM, PST)

Spoiler



Not Voting (9): The Unknown Order, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian,
Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien

VC 2.1 (8/4, 7:30PM, PST)

Spoiler



StrikerEZ (1): The Unknown Order
Fabien (1): Araris Valerian
Kasimir (1): DrakeMarshall
Araris (1): Archer
The Unknown Order (1): StrikerEZ
Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Kasimir, Fabien

VC 2.2 (8/5, 8:30AM, PST)

Spoiler



Fabien (2): Araris Valerian, Kasimir
DrakeMarshall (2): Steeldancer, StrikerEZ
StrikerEZ (2): The Unknown Order, Archer
Kasimir (1): DrakeMarshall
Not Voting (2): Ashbringer,Fabien

 

Edited by Illwei
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1 minute ago, Illwei said:

You are correct in your understanding

A. If Wyrm were to be scanned during C1, the scanner would see his starting hand of [One of Spears, One of Pens]

B. If Wyrm were to be scanned during C2, the scanner would see [One of Spears] as the cards he is offered to cheat with are not considered to be in his hand until he chooses them.

Perfect. Resolves it, and gives us the plus of two players who have been at loggerheads for a decent chunk of the game agreeing. Sorry @DrakeMarshall, you're vindicated now :P Thanks Eiwlil, I'm gonna go ahead and think through my reads again now :P 

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11 minutes ago, Archer said:

-Striker was Clever. He could only play a card every other turn. 

This requires he didn't play one on Day One, I think. But good point, that's harder to assess.

Edited to add:

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

TUO was linked to Kas during C1, but the link is rather weaker than I originally thought, as Kas pointed out last turn. All the final votes on him D1 were village. Really not a whole lot to go on here, especially because TUO is kinda just playing like he usually does, trying to copy my signature strategy. He doesn't really have a strong link with other players, and that's making this hard.

Araris, I'm interested in why TUO is so low on your suspicions list. I agree that there was no real movement to save TUO, and that spending cards recklessly isn't Elim, but the more I look at his voting patterns, the more I don't feel good marking him more than lean Village, especially given the fact he had an anti-lynch card. I feel like there's a tendency to over-anchor on the D1 vote here when we've acknowledged a less risk-averse Elim team (or one that inactive) could be happy with those events.

Same from @Archer, really.

Edited by Kasimir
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