Archer Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Perfectly balanced, as all things should be. You counted your own vote twice. You're no longer my favorite vote bot (I'm sorry Illwei, I never should have doubted you!) 9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: I feel like his insistence on going for you and no one else for awhile is counterproductive. Plus, half the time I’m having trouble trying to figure out what he’s saying, so knowing his alignment and then deciding if there might be any actual info in his posts would be helpful. As for why he’s my second, it’s that I think my suspicions on TUO are a little more founded. Travis' eyes spun like tumbleweeds blowing in the wind, taking in all the possibilities. "Yeehaw, man. This is one strange game of Uno." [At this point I'm guessing either Fab or Ashbringer could be an evil third on theorized teams and we can't afford to spend a cycle finding out so I'm just ignoring them for now. Anyway, both Striker and Drake have been pretty consistent in their main suspicions being exes I dislike since pretty much the start of the game. Which makes it weird that Striker's second choice is Drake, because I had them pegged as possible e-e. If they're not, I find Striker sussing Drake for being confusing to be a red flag. It's suspicion cast because of appearance, not substance. Striker Araris Also, Ashbringer, if you get on, what card did you play and what'd you learn from it?] Edited August 5, 2021 by Archer I did it again. C/P error on the retraction. Tried to remove my vote from... myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Archer said: You counted your own vote twice. You're no longer my favorite vote bot (I'm sorry Illwei, I never should have doubted you!) RIP, this teaches me to c/p blindly without checking Wow, that was broken really fast. Current state of reads: LIGHT VILLAGE WITH SOY SAUCE: Spoiler Archer: Soy sauce because Evil Archer will powerwolf anyway. That being said, active and helpful are usually Villager markers before we get into shuffle squats. TUO: Weak read. I feel like retracting immediately is a weird play for Elim TUO, and that Elim TUO had literally...a whole Village of targets. But also, I don't see the Elims trying to burn TUO's card early on because this could be a real difference maker at Lylo, and a teammate should have intervened if it was clear he wasn't on. That being said, Elim team tends to have more action restrictions due to the NK so it is possible that they didn't feel burning the card was a big deal. VILLAGE MEHBE Spoiler ERROR 404: PLAYER NOT FOUND NULL Spoiler Ash: Unsurprisingly, if a player neither posts nor votes, it is difficult to get much of a read on them. Drake: Active and clearly engaged, but I've already expressed I distrust players with low vote flexibility. Voting shows where a player's strategic priorities are. I split the difference so he goes into NULL. BUDGET EVIL Spoiler Araris: I accept it's standard Araris behaviour, but my read of the D1 voting forces me to suspect you anyway due to my peripherality hypothesis. Steel: Could be a busy player. I get that it's hard to have solid D1 reads but we normally try anyway. Not having the slightest inclination to info vote even is odd. I could put him in null but ultimately, I get a bit of a negative gut over Steel's defensiveness on being @ for not voting. Fabien: RL reason noted, but without further knowledge of what Fabien planned to do or plans to do, I'm prompted to read this the same way I read peripheral and stable votes from crouching (in terms of thread presence) new players, which is trend negative. We blame Alv and LG5 for this. GO VILE OR GO HOME Spoiler Striker: I accept I have been wrong about him many times but at the same time, I can't get over that D1 post of his which felt like he had too strong a Village read of me given I hadn't been doing all that much. It reads a bit TMI. I feel like his suspicions are a bit inflexible given the TUO debate thus far. Hmm. I'm obviously going to go for someone low in my lists. I'm tempted to tie Fabien and Striker, honestly. I'm just not sure how helpful / wise that would be. Edited to add: Drake Fabien. Edited August 5, 2021 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Hm. Drake confuses me here. I'm gonna go with my gut here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Drake, TUO. I’m willing to die in a 3-way tie if it takes out one of my elim suspects and a quiet new player who might be hiding as an elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted August 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 50 minutes remaining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) I am awake this time tbh. what a suprise. Votecount 2.2 Fabien (2): Araris Valerian, Kasimir DrakeMarshall (2): Steeldancer, StrikerEZ StrikerEZ (2): The Unknown Order, Archer Kasimir (1): DrakeMarshall Not Voting (2): Ashbringer,Fabien Previous Vote Counts Spoiler Day 1 Ending: Elandera (3): Archer, Matrims Dice, Kasimir The Unknown Order (2): Elandera, Striker Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (1): Araris Valerian Not Voting (3): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, The Unknown Order Previous: Spoiler VC 1.0 (8/1, 10:50AM, PST) Spoiler Not Voting (11): Matrims Dice, The Unknown Order, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien VC 1.1 (8/1, 2:50PM, PST) Spoiler Drake (2): Kasimir, The Unknown Order Striker (1): Araris Valerian Not Voting (8): Matrims Dice, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien VC 1.2 (8/1, 5:10PM, PST) Spoiler Drake (2): Kasimir, The Unknown Order Archer (2): Matrims Dice, DrakeMarshall Striker (1): Araris Valerian Ashbringer (1): Archer Not Voting (5): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Fabien VC 1.3 (8/1, 11:50PM, PST) Spoiler Archer (2): Matrims Dice, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian Drake (1): The Unknown Order Kasimir (1): Fabien Araris Valerian (1): Kasimir Steeldancer (1): StrikerEZ Not Voting (3): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera VC 1.4 (8/2, 12:50PM, PST) Spoiler Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian Drake (1): The Unknown Order Araris Valerian (1): Kasimir Steeldancer (1): StrikerEZ Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrim VC 1.5 (8/3, 12:30 AM, PST) Spoiler Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian Araris Valerian (2): Kasimir, Striker The Unknown Order (1): Matrims Dice Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrims Dice, The Unknown Order Day 2: VC 2.0 (8/3, 10:30AM, PST) Spoiler Not Voting (9): The Unknown Order, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien VC 2.1 (8/4, 7:30PM, PST) Spoiler StrikerEZ (1): The Unknown Order Fabien (1): Araris Valerian Kasimir (1): DrakeMarshall Araris (1): Archer The Unknown Order (1): StrikerEZ Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Kasimir, Fabien Ping me for a votecount when you need, or wait til I feel like doing one. Edited August 5, 2021 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 19 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: This should be 8/3 or 9/2, down to 6/3 or 7/2. So we are slightly less well off in the 2-elim scenario. [OOC: Thanks for the catch. So: Scenario A: We started 8/3 and were down to 6/3 today. A mislynch takes us to 4/3, minimally, assuming two deaths. An extra death doesn't make too much of a difference as we could be on 3/3. But we can't afford anymore horseplay to create additional ties. Four bad deaths (less likely, in my view, but not impossible) immediately loses us the game at 2/3. Scenario B: We started 9/2 and were down to 7/2 today. (Thanks for the shout, Araris!) A mislynch takes us to 5/2, minimally, assuming two deaths. We do get an extra cycle in this scenario: 5/2 to 3/2, if there's always a lynch and a NK each cycle. Then we are at lylo. My difficulty is working out which scenario we're in. In theory, I have one more piece of information that you all don't, and the Elims also have that same piece of information. Given that all the two-Elim team guesses I've seen involve an Evil GC, I'm sort of hard-pressed to think of how an Evil team of two would function otherwise. It's just an odd position where a three-man team seems too strong (throws us in lylo next cycle, if not this cycle, if people go kayana with the horseplay), or - the only possibility which people have brought up for a two-man team isn't possible in my view, and the other variants just seem too weak for the Elims. Sigh. A certain player commented I play not to lose, which is...fair as an assessment, I suppose. I wish I were less tired as I just got off more or less back-to-back a week of OTing but we make do with what we have. I can't think this through in my head so the thread is just going to have to deal with my thinking aloud, RIP y'all. This is agnostic as to which of them is Village and which is Elim. I'm just doing the pathwalking. Possibility #1: Fabien/Striker/Drake = V/V/V Quote I shouldn't need to state the obvious. Losing three Villagers in a misguided three-way tie is the worst possible outcome for us. I've modelled the possibility of a fourth death due to vote manip. It doesn't matter if someone happens to vote-manip us to only a single death. The point is that we also want to look at Striker's calculations. Played straight: Scenario A: 6/3 -> 3/3 or 2/3 or 3/2. [Last two possibilities simulate an additional kill: I think more than that would be going too far.] Scenario B: 7/2 -> 4/2 or 3/2 or 4/1. If we are in scenario A, note that only the middle possibility is game-ending. Either way, next cycle is lylo. If we are in Scenario B, the first possibility gives us one cycle between us and lylo. The second does not. Possibility #2: Fabien/Striker/Drake = V/V/E Quote I would not be terribly surprised if this were the case, and one of the Elims may be banking on a vote redirect. Scenario A: 6/3 -> 4/2 or 3/2 or 4/1. Scenario B: 7/2 -> 5/1 or 4/1 or 5/0. Possibility #3: Fabien/Striker/Drake = V/E/E Quote I don't find this as likely. That's a lot to have at stake. Scenario A: 6/3 -> 5/1 or 4/1 or 5/0. Scenario B: 7/2 -> 6/0 or 5/0. Possibility #4: Fabien/Striker/Drake = E/E/E Quote I'm not going to do this one. I think this one is kind of absurd and requires Striker to hope a friendly Villager catches it in time and saves him, though he could be doing this as a gambit and be planning to spend a card to protect himself. It'd sacrifice potentially two teammates or one teammate. I don't see the point in this. To be fair, the more Elims there are in the pool, the better for us. But part of the issue with reasoning too powerfully from this tie is that I've been lurking in this thread and I've just seen...myself, Araris, Eiwlil, Lotus, and Striker, who's lurking right now. So it's possible the Elims simply didn't even see this appear. I'm going to go Fabien and Striker to break the tie and consolidate the train on my main sus. I was hoping that Fabien's teammates, if any, might be baited into showing up, since you can't actually redirect a vote from another player. The last Fabien logged into the Shard was 0348hrs yesterday, the same as when they posted in the thread. It could be an entire Elim team of inactivity (active enough to submit the kill though), but I'm not about to reduce our count this way - even if they're Elim, we can deal with them later. If they're not logging in, they're not submitting kills, and I'm not certain enough on Fabien to roll the dice this way, and especially not when a player I suspect is chill with doing this. Guess that player was right about me, huh. I really don't like risk and really play to not lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) Friendly reminder that vote manipulating and Shardblade kills are a thing. So I'm sticking with the Striker vote because aaaaaaaaaa ties? Edited August 5, 2021 by Archer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Just now, Archer said: Friendly reminder that vote manipulating and Shardblade kills are a thing. So I'm sticking with the Striker vote because aaaaaaaaaa ties? MTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Quote Color Key Strong Village Read Village Read Slight Village Read Conclusive Read Slight Elim Read Elim Read Strong Elim Read Reads List TUO Steeldancer Ashbinger Striker Araris Kasimir Archer Drake Fabien Anyways: Kasimir Striker. I wasn't particularly wondering if Kasimir would break the tie when I saw them online around now, and this is not an acceptable outcome to me for this vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said: I wasn't particularly wondering if Kasimir would break the tie when I saw them online around now, and this is not an acceptable outcome to me for this vote. I've expressed my views on the matter, yeah. But you're consolidating on your Village read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Fabien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted August 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Annnddd that's time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted August 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 MR52 Cycle 3: 7 is a lucky number As they sat and fingered there cards, the pile of spheres grew ever larger in the middle. Karnan put a diamond mark in the middle. 'All in' he said, eying the others. Honest Jake followed suit with his own diamond mark, and after a few moments the rest of them hurried to put in the spheres. All except two. "I fold," Striker said, standing up and heading over to a nearby table to watch. Steel considered his cards for a moment, before someone stamping on his foot made him stutter out 'I fold!' Striker was voted off the table! They were a Clever Knight radiant! Steel was pushed off the table! They were a Clever Knight radiant! VC: Spoiler Fabien (2): Araris Valerian, StrikerEZ DrakeMarshall (1): Steeldancer StrikerEZ (4): The Unknown Order, Archer, kasimir, Drake Not Voting (2): Ashbringer, Fabien Player list: Spoiler 1. @Matrim's Dice, Clever Knight radiant 2. @The Unknown Order 3. @Steeldancer, Clever Knight radiant 4. @Ashbringer Faleast 5. @StrikerEZ Clever Knight radiant 6. @Elandera Lucky Knight radiant 7. @Araris Valerian 8. @Kasimir Karnan, lighteyed swordsman, formerly working for Brightlord Terneas 9. @Archer 10. @DrakeMarshallHonest Jake 11. @Fabien Jack Oliver Travis 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) Not Voting (7): idk the players. the alive ones. Previous: Spoiler Day 1 Ending: Quote Elandera (3): Archer, Matrims Dice, Kasimir The Unknown Order (2): Elandera, Striker Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (1): Araris Valerian Not Voting (3): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, The Unknown Order VC 1.0 (8/1, 10:50AM, PST) Spoiler Not Voting (11): Matrims Dice, The Unknown Order, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien VC 1.1 (8/1, 2:50PM, PST) Spoiler Drake (2): Kasimir, The Unknown Order Striker (1): Araris Valerian Not Voting (8): Matrims Dice, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien VC 1.2 (8/1, 5:10PM, PST) Spoiler Drake (2): Kasimir, The Unknown Order Archer (2): Matrims Dice, DrakeMarshall Striker (1): Araris Valerian Ashbringer (1): Archer Not Voting (5): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Elandera, Fabien VC 1.3 (8/1, 11:50PM, PST) Spoiler Archer (2): Matrims Dice, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian Drake (1): The Unknown Order Kasimir (1): Fabien Araris Valerian (1): Kasimir Steeldancer (1): StrikerEZ Not Voting (3): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera VC 1.4 (8/2, 12:50PM, PST) Spoiler Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian Drake (1): The Unknown Order Araris Valerian (1): Kasimir Steeldancer (1): StrikerEZ Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrim VC 1.5 (8/3, 12:30 AM, PST) Spoiler Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (2): Archer, Araris Valerian Araris Valerian (2): Kasimir, Striker The Unknown Order (1): Matrims Dice Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrims Dice, The Unknown Order Day 2 Final: Quote StrikerEZ (4): The Unknown Order, Archer, Kasimir, DrakeMarshall Fabien (2): Araris Valerian, StrikerEZ DrakeMarshall (1): Steeldancer Not Voting (2): Ashbringer, Fabien Spoiler VC 2.0 (8/3, 10:30AM, PST) Spoiler Not Voting (9): The Unknown Order, Steeldancer, Ashbringer, StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Fabien VC 2.1 (8/4, 7:30PM, PST) Spoiler StrikerEZ (1): The Unknown Order Fabien (1): Araris Valerian Kasimir (1): DrakeMarshall Araris (1): Archer The Unknown Order (1): StrikerEZ Not Voting (4): Steeldancer, Ashbringer, Kasimir, Fabien VC 2.2 (8/5, 8:30AM, PST) Spoiler Fabien (2): Araris Valerian, Kasimir DrakeMarshall (2): Steeldancer, StrikerEZ StrikerEZ (2): The Unknown Order, Archer Kasimir (1): DrakeMarshall Not Voting (2): Ashbringer,Fabien MY FORMATTING BROKEE Edited August 5, 2021 by Illwei 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Well, this is good. Yo Araris (@Araris Valerian) are you a Voidbinger? Also @Ashbringer where you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Yo Araris (@Araris Valerian) are you a Voidbinger? Yes, I am definitely a Voidbinger. That's why my face goes red and black when I'm really angry, you see? And don't expect further participation from me for some time. Grades are due in ~4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Hi. Sorry. I was out camping the past few days, and had very limited access to internet connection. (I did have some internet connection, but that was spent... either working on something or avoiding working on something that I am not allowed to speak of any further but is no longer a major concern of mine ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯ .) TL;DR, didn't really have a chance to do anything, as I barely saw the first half of C1 and never even saw C2 until post-rollover. Archer, didn't respond to your vote because I never saw it. I'm going to do some yard work and then read through things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) I'm going camping from Friday at 5pm EST to Sunday night. I don't know how good the reception will be and even if I can get on, I don't expect I will very often during that period. I enjoy playing, but I also enjoy vacationing "What in the name of star-spangled banners is going on here?" Travis shouted, exasperatedly. "I know we all look like idiots, but you didn't have ta underscore it by having all the Clever people leave the table." [Striker being village is interesting. The upshot of all this though is it makes the game easier to solve now. I trust TUO and Kas, so three of Araris, Fab, Drake, and Ashbringer are likely evil. I'll +1 that Araris vote. Araris] He glared at God and her assistant. "Anyway, I'm being wondering if Steel was pushed out because they were unlikely to recieve protection from their fellow players." "I'm also hoping that y'all saved your best playing for last. I don't want to lose because somebody didn't show up." He leaned back, flipping through his cards. "Also, I reckon it's do or die time. So if any of y'all have a pointy ace up your sleeve, it's now or never." Edit: Quote Hi. Sorry. I was out camping the past few days, and had very limited access to internet connection. a likely story, who even does that Edited August 5, 2021 by Archer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) O7 Shield of the Lynch indeed. Sorry, Striker. Day One: Spoiler Elandera (3): Archer<2>, Mat<3>, Kas<5> The Unknown Order (2): Mat<2>, Elan, Striker<3>, Kas<4> Kasimir (2): Drake<1>, Fabien, Drake<3> Ashbringer (1): Archer<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<3> Araris (0): Kas<2>, Striker<2> Archer (0): Mat<1>, Drake<2> Steel (0): Striker<1> Striker(0): Araris<1> Drake (0): Kas<1>, TUO<1> Extremely high credence in the side-train hypothesis for me at this juncture. Day Two: Spoiler Striker (4): TUO, Kas<3>, Archer<2>, Kas<7>, Drake<2> Fabien (2): Kas<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<6>, Striker<3> TUO (0): Striker<1> Archer (0): Kas<4> Araris (0): Archer<1> Drake (0): Kas<2>, Kas<5>, Steel, Striker<2> Kas (0): Drake<1> Ash (0): Araris<1> Fabien and Ash are non-voting. I don't believe Ash has ever voted. I'll do a Fabien activity check again later. Steel is an interesting choice for a kill if you theorise the Elims are hiding among the peripherals, because this means that they're cutting down the peripheral pool, though this game is short enough we can likely expect they don't expect to be found. In light of this information, the main D1 trains look especially Village-driven. Strictly for the same of culling a pool, without taking into account reads: Day One Cull: Spoiler Elandera (3): Archer<2>, Mat<3>, Kas<5> The Unknown Order (2): Mat<2>, Elan, Striker<3>, Kas<4> Kasimir (2): Drake<1>, Fabien, Drake<3> Ashbringer (1): Archer<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<3> Araris (0): Kas<2>, Striker<2> Archer (0): Mat<1>, Drake<2> Steel (0): Striker<1> Striker(0): Araris<1> Drake (0): Kas<1>, TUO<1> Non-voters: <Steel, TUO, Ash> We now know Steel was Village, and I lean Village on TUO. Day Two Cull: Spoiler Striker (4): TUO, Kas<3>, Archer<2>, Kas<7>, Drake<2> Fabien (2): Kas<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<6>, Striker<3> TUO (0): Striker<1> Archer (0): Kas<4> Araris (0): Archer<1> Drake (0): Kas<2>, Kas<5>, Steel, Striker<2> Kas (0): Drake<1> Ash (0): Araris<1> What's interesting D2 is that at one point, Striker tried to go for a three-way tie: Spoiler Striker (2): TUO, Kas<3>, Archer<2> Fabien (2): Kas<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<6> TUO (0): Striker<1> Archer (0): Kas<4> Araris (0): Archer<1> Drake (2): Kas<2>, Kas<5>, Steel, Striker<2> Kas (0): Drake<1> Ash (0): Araris<1> This does make Steel a very interesting kill, as both players who voted on Drake are dead. I broke the tie, and Drake cemented it. No sign of card activity that I can make out. Drake mentioned being suspicious of Striker, as did I, so at least that much is on the level. Archer was against the idea of a tie. Non-voters this cycle: <Fabien, Ash> Given my current light Village Archer and TUO credences, this narrows my pool to <Drake, Araris, Fabien, Ash.> I'd like to hear more from Ash in the time being. Edited to add: Woes of longposts - everyone and their chull ninjas you... Edited August 5, 2021 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 So Archer and Kasimir are on totaly different pages. That's not a good sign, probably? I can't really see an Araris, Fabien, Ashbringer team. I also still can't see an Araris, Kasimir team. Way I see it, both of those options are off the table, so Araris is probably the worst possible vote for me right now. I think Archer and TUO are both *probably* voidbringers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 I’m gonna game this out. Let’s assume everyone will vote. 1. Let’s assume it’s 4v;3e with the NK taking out the Guard Captain. -We can have a v/e tie with successful NK: makes it 2v;2e, at which point the elims can force another tie and submit the NK for the win. There’s a fun endgame scenario where it’s down to a villager with a vote manip versus an elim who submits the NK, and because the OOA doesn’t include the exe, I’m not sure who wins. -A mix and a blocked NK results in a similar scenario, where it comes down to the exe coinflip and card use to see who ends up winning. -We can have an elim exe and an NK, which results in a 3v;2e round, which is functionally similar to this round. -And we can have a mix and NK, which ends the game the other way. I’m ignoring Shardblade shenanigans because those can throw a wrench into any scenario and turn a loss into a continuation of the game and vice versa. Speaking of which, did anyone Shardblade Steeldancer? 2. Let’s assume it’s 5v;2e with Kas being evil. -We can have a mix and a successful NK and end up at 2v;2e. It will be apparent that Kas is evil, but for the village to win, he’s gotta be Shardbladed. -An elim exe and an NK would make it 3v;1e. With a Kas-exe and another NK, it then makes it 2v;1e. Kas can only submit the NK or vote manip, not both, so he loses there. -We can exe Kas today and if they NK, it’ll be 3v;2e. In that scenario, we’re committed to hunting down Kas, so it’d probably go to 2v;1e, which is similar to where we are now. So the takeaways here are if you’re village, using your Shardblade to kill an elim today is a good idea. If you don’t have that, using your vote manip to ensure the exe hits an elim is also a good plan. I think an elim flip is more guiding than a blocked NK, so cardblocking should be your third option. I don’t think card blocks work on the NK, so unless you stop an elim vote manip, you aren’t accomplishing much. Scanning cards is pretty useless at this point. * Ashbringer, my fellow camper, did you play a good card C1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 I'm curious if it's prima facie impossible for there to be a two Elim team without the GC. Largely because I should in theory have the info needed to rule out that possibility but am considering an oddball Lucky pair or something of that sort. I'm not going to bother with the usual disclaimers. I am Village and if your predicted scenario of a NK on me is right, you'll be able to go back to this using info from my flip so hopefully I won't have died in vain. I'm going to work towards that at the moment. Fun quote about a message to posterity from Tenet comes to mind. Paranoia points me towards some Drake-Archer Elim variant: thus too risky to kill another vocal player, so Steel. I doubt that though. If it's Archer-Drake, with or without someone else, they already control the thread anyway. A control kill would immediately cut off resistance. So I'm going to stick with my peripheral pool. Higher credence on Village Archer than Village Drake. My issue is I can't see an Elim Ash being this completely inactive, though he's apparently resurrecting now. If I really had to pick someone to smite of the Ash-Araris-Fabien pool, I guess I would go with Araris, but I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that, too. I also can't see Evil Araris just leaving so many active players alive. But maybe I need more sleep. The cycle is young so I'm not about to move my vote just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Lotus Posted August 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Hey y’all quick note, I’m moving rollover a hour later for this cycle so it will end on Saturday at 10:00 am PST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Come to think of it, Mat IMO is a classic control kill. Steel is not. So mixed prospects. Archer's theory of unlikely to be protected makes sense but also—Striker, Drake, and Fabien were up for the lynch at various points, even collectively. Which means: <TUO, Archer, Kas, Araris, and Steel> as the effective pool. Low info kill would have to be Steel or TUO, Steel more than TUO. Paradoxically gives me more confidence in Village Archer though I'm sure he'll change his Elim strategic doctrine at some point. I'm still curious why Archer and Araris didn't get targeted though. Even if the Elims are hiding among the low activity players, low activity players generally can't do much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts