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Mid Range 50: The Northern Wind II


DeTess

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Unsolicited and probably accurate VC:

Tani (1): Exp
Illwei (4): Azmine, Quinn, Szeth, Sart
Exp (2): Illwei, TUO
TUO (3): TJ, Matrim, Biplet
Gears (2): Jondesu, Tani

Okay so I'm not sure how to feel about my Illwei vote suddenly picking up two followers... uhhh I guess I'll let it sit for now, but I'm keeping an eye on that. Especially if we later find out TUO's elim.

8 minutes ago, Tani said:

Sorry! ;-;

It's fine, it just means I have to be more careful around you :P 

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6 hours ago, Quintessential said:

being concerned with oversharing information about actions

Not so much concerned with oversharing information about actions as I am with using information to appear as villagery.

6 hours ago, Quintessential said:

I can't imagine an elim would want to publicly obligate themselves to do a specific action

Exactly what TUO did in LG73 when he announced he'd be protecting the camp and we all read him village for it. 

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Eek. Sorry. I meant to get on last night but I fell asleep. 

On 5/7/2021 at 1:40 AM, |TJ| said:

So in this case you're assuming the elims have one of their own in the hospital? Then, we'd have narrowed down the list of possible elims to the ones in the hospital. And I think forcing elims to kill the same person again is a good thing, it's like they'd have a double life which would only prolong their path to a win.

Again. They don't need someone in the hospital to kill a visitor. 

On 5/7/2021 at 1:40 AM, |TJ| said:

And this is what ticks me off everyone single time - being overly information reveal-y about self actions and seeming helpful just like in LG73. Also sorta like Books in the last LG. The Unknown Order

See, I'd agree here, but this is what pinged me in...what game? the last game that we killed TUO in Day 1.

14 hours ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

They voted for Exp., so they are suspicious now.

? wh- ??

14 hours ago, Archer said:

Seriously, I assumed I'd said something and forgotten it. You seem cool, I won't vote for you

Honestly reading this Elim. Both the "I assumed I said that" and "you seem cool" 

 

@Azmine_king get your RVS vote off me nerd

 

honestly not ever wanting to play this card because it's just not nice, but I'd keep an eye on the people who are usually against killing people D1 who die early. I just died D1 and then N2 in the last games, so I should make that list, but even the people like Quinn seem perfectly fine killing me. Not even a "I know they didn't get to play the last two games, but they're very suspicious", just a "eh why not kill an Illwei again" 

I had something to say about TUO but I don't remember it, so someone post please if you can before my next post

EDIT:

aw no one posted. I doubt people will be on anyways. 

16 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Illwei, how come you voted Experience without reasoning and then dedicated the rest of that same post to explaining why you thought Tani, TUO, and Szeth were sus? (Exp themself pointed this out already and you never explained)

Oh there's this

I already explained my thoughts on XP before, and it wasn't a post dedicated to why those three were suspicious, just the things I thought stood out to me in the cycle so far. 

15 hours ago, Experience said:

Not sure how it's odd to choose to hold off on voting at start of d1 but ok...

It's not extremely helpful, but after thinking, it's "your meta". Meaning I remember you telling me that you don't vote D1 when we were Elims together, but I don't remember whether that held for the other games we played. 

14 hours ago, Sart said:

In that regard, one person clearly stood out. Illwei had ducked Tevris's question like a scared Aviar.

how? 

Everyone's responses:

Spoiler
On 5/6/2021 at 0:00 PM, Quintessential said:

I'd choose the elims; more people would win that way xD basically the Trolley Problem but with less dire consequences :P 

On 5/6/2021 at 0:11 PM, The Unknown Order said:

I would choose the Agent simply because neutral wins are pretty rare in Mafia games. 

I will be going to the Aviar holding center this turn. If anyone else is going there you should probably declare in-thread to prevent more than three people visiting there.

On 5/6/2021 at 4:07 PM, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Probably agent. At least they’re not attacking us <_<

On 5/6/2021 at 4:08 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

^That, though I’d agree with Illwei on the principle 

On 5/6/2021 at 4:27 PM, Archer said:

I'm Team Neutral all the way. You seem very intent on getting an answer to your random question, Tani. :P Are you hoping to catch an elim who admits they'd theoretically prefer their own team wins in such a scenario? 

I have another question: where is this ship going? 

On 5/6/2021 at 4:39 PM, Azmine_king said:

Agent, I have a soft spot for neutrals

 

I'm suspicious because I didn't answer one or the other? I think the answer truly doesn't matter to me, as it's a village loss either way. 

And if I were to make reads off of these answers I'd honestly probably mark Quinn village for being the only one to say the Elims. 

22 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

I am getting sussed for essentially doing what Mat did, saying I'm sus of Exp for gut mostly, I only voted. Everyone thinks it's odd I switched off of Exp and onto Striker, but that was a joke, I had always intended to switch back or to someone else. I just haven't posted since then. People are also sus of the 'this will come off later.' I fully expected a 'this is how Exp normally plays' or the response that Exp had to Mat.

I wouldn't be sharing if not sharing didn't possibly mean wasting an action. 

Why would not sharing be wasting an action? 

21 hours ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I’m back!

First off - I was only voting myself to stall for a bit. I knew that if I waited a few hours, I was bound to get an elim read on somebody. And I did! That person is Archer! Why? Well, he was suspicious of me and Tani for being indecisive, and then didn’t vote! (Please notify me if I missed a vote by Archer)

I’m not getting a very good read on anyone else, however.

I was going to comment on not liking this but I don't know how to take the "thinking I was Archer" thing. If it was planned between two Elims then Archer would have had a stronger reaction, so it's not e/e. I still do think that archer is looking suspicious off of it based on his way-too-chill response. 

14 hours ago, Sart said:

Now, Fourth agreed that taking your time in the infirmary wasn't a great idea. However, abandoning the injured in the hospital was just plain suicidal. If the Saboteurs attacked someone, that meant the victim wasn't a Saboteur. Having confirmed good people would greatly help our chances. Yes, he supposed a Saboteur could fake an injury, but that would be a huge risk, and with not much benefit. Even if we don't trust the wounded completely, it would still double the Saboteur's workload. The longer we survived, the more we have a chance to root out the traitors. It was a simple rule. When your opponent's low on chips, you bleed him dry. We win via attrition. So, for that backwards logic, Illwei had to go.

Also, if you manage to revive someone from the hospital, it's practically a 1-1 trade, so it doesn't do much. I stand by my opinions that losing a vote for a cycle isn't woth having a maybe confirmed villager. 

Edited by Illwei
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Also In response to the people, the post is not "all about why TUO, Tani, And Szeth are suspicious" 

On 5/6/2021 at 6:35 PM, Illwei said:

I'm going to throw a vote on Experience Right now. 

Noted: 

 - [1] Don't like TUO's "this will probably come off later", because that gives him reason to remove if XP gets more pressure, and it also defeats the purpose in a way of voting someone to pressure them at all.
("TUO sus")

 - [2] I think tani's question is mostly meaningless- answer wise. The Elims have to kill all the villagers to live. So even if all the villagers know who the elims are, the elims then I guess either have to work out and kill the agent first, or work out other things. Idk. So villagers don't really chose a side there 
(Response to Tani's answer, not even a "Tani's sus)

 - I think the distro is 11-4-1, and 10-5-1 feels too little (EDIT: TOO MANY. TOO MANY ELIMS. NOT TOO LITTLE ELIMS.). The Elims have functionally won once they outnumber everyone else- the only thing left for them to do is to find the agent and kill them first before the rest of the village. So that's still 4 cycles to get down to 3-1-4 in a perfect Elim game. 

 - I think the arguments about the Neutral being a threat have no weight, as their kill would only be used in endgame, where maybe it's two villagers and them, or them and a villager vs. the elims, or Villagers with one Elim left. killing off earlier than that doesn't really help them as much Imo, and if we are winning then they don't have any incentive to kill off a trusted/important town role. 

 - If there's only one engineer in this game, I'd assume it would be an Elim. 

 - Again, I don't really have a problem with the Agent winning instead of the village. I'm not gonna actively try and help them ofc (if there even is a way to do that), but I'm not going to try and delay the game if we think they have all 5 parts upgraded or whatnot. 

(and then from here down)

 - Szeth and Tani both voted on themselves 

 - Tani and TUO voted on Striker. 

 - Immediately more suspicious of all three because 

TUO didn't even stay on Exp like he said he wanted to (Implied e/e speculation between TUO/XP)
Tani and Szeth haven't made a significant vote (only on them, or on the GM)

The question is: are people's sensitivities to this because either it mentions them or they're an Elim and it mentions their teammate? If Quinn is an Elim here, being hypersensitive to seeing the names of her teammates, then I could mark Exp/Quinn as Elims, and then make another connection for TUO/Quinn for her trying to redirect the lynch onto me. 

This could fit with the e/e speculation between TUO and Exp, imo. 

I need to go shower and get ready for work now, but  TUO

EDIT:

I feel a bit like I'm confbiasing but I don't have enough time to go through the thread (well, I guess more than 50 minutes, which is what I just spent, waking up at 6 :P. 

I don't really think it would matter either because people have a habit of not really listening to dead people's older posts, even if I did happen to be right :P. so eh.

I don't really have a read on Sart despite his post. i feel like it follows very standard logic, and I can see an Elim writing it up just as much as a villager. Still marking Szeth village at the moment for mixing up me and Archer. 

Edited by Illwei
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There's an hour left, everyone! Get your votes and actions in!
Vote tally:

Tani (1): Exp
Illwei (4): Azmine, Quinn, Szeth, Sart
Exp (1): TUO
TUO (4): TJ, Matrim, Biplet, Illwei
Gears (2): Jondesu, Tani

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TUO died C1 in the most recent game and was a villager, and I don't know if this would be any different. I also don't want to kill Illwei early again even though reviving someone from the hospital sacrifices a vote and action one cycle for an extra vote and action every cycle for the rest of the game. I'll vote for Gears I guess. Next cycle I should be able to actually pay attention to players instead of the rules.

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3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

rest of the game

Depending on the cycle it could be just what the elims need to get an advantage.

And its not for the whole game, because if someone was killed then they might end up being confirmed village if revived, which means that they will die again. So say theres 10 people left in the game:

Doc and tuo go to hospital, 4-4, elims gain advantage, they shoot tuo or other.

Also on that, TUO, you announcing the "cover" makes that "cover" meaningless.

Then they come back, two village dead which puts the village at 5-4, yadda yadda

As opposed to being at 6-4 and having those 6 votes.

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1 hour ago, Illwei said:

honestly not ever wanting to play this card because it's just not nice, but I'd keep an eye on the people who are usually against killing people D1 who die early. I just died D1 and then N2 in the last games, so I should make that list, but even the people like Quinn seem perfectly fine killing me. Not even a "I know they didn't get to play the last two games, but they're very suspicious", just a "eh why not kill an Illwei again" 

Oh wait Illwei I'd forgotten you died early in those games somehow. Sorry about that oof Besides which, your response here actually feels pretty vil to me so I'm revising my read of you for the moment.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

I already explained my thoughts on XP before, and it wasn't a post dedicated to why those three were suspicious, just the things I thought stood out to me in the cycle so far. 

Ah, okay yeah I see that now.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Why would not sharing be wasting an action? 

Because only 3 birds can be lent from the Aviar Holding Area each cycle, so if more than three people ask for birds, some of those actions will be wasted. Basically TUO is saying they want to coordinate who takes birds each cycle : P

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Also, if you manage to revive someone from the hospital, it's practically a 1-1 trade, so it doesn't do much. I stand by my opinions that losing a vote for a cycle isn't woth having a maybe confirmed villager. 

The point is that it buys us time in the form of extra cycles. Like, if I'm NKd this cycle and go to the hospital, and another villager is misexed, we go from (what I'm assuming to be) 11-4-1 to 9-4-1. With a misexe each cycle, the elims win C7 even without the extra kills from the Trapper and the Agent. With those extra kills, they could win as early as C5. However, if a Doctor goes to save me from the hospital, that moves the possible elim win-cycle up by 1--so, C8 and C6 respective, instead of C7 and C5. And that's with only one Doctor saving only one patient. Even if that Doctor and that patient are the next two to die, it still delays the elims winning.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

Well, why aren't you voting for him then?

Because I had reasons to vote Illwei at the time--all of which she's responded to convincingly and village-y imo, hence why I'm not voting her anymore. Also, she and TUO both died early in recent games, so I'd feel bad killing either of them.

I'm voting Experience because I have a mild elim read on them and... well I'd feel bad killing TUO or Illwei on C1 again : P

Current VC:

Tani (1): Exp
Illwei (3): Azmine, Szeth, Sart
Exp (2): TUO, Quinn
TUO (4): TJ, Matrim, Biplet, Illwei
Gears (3): Jondesu, Tani, Devo

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11 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

idk how to read Tani so I don't think I'm comfortable voting her... I'd rather Exp as an alternative than Tani.

And I counter this by saying that I don't know how to read Exp and am not comfortable voting him right now :P.

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Cycle 2

"Well, I think the captain is mightily suspicious." One of the engineers spoke up. They where still a relative unknown to Praza, and try as she might, she couldn't remember their name.

"That's ridiculous." the chief engineer responded. "The captain was one of the few survivors of the debacle of the first Northern Wind. He's pretty much the only person that's beyond suspicion." She shook her head.

"Yeah, he might be a hardass, but the captain is trustworthy!" Another crew member chimed in. "And didn't I see you loitering around the engines when that saboteur got caught?" he added, pointing at the crewmember whose name Praza still could not remember.

"Yes, I saw that too!" one of the scientists chimed in. "And I saw them meet with some shady looking people in a bar near the shipyard a couple of days ago as well!"

Other members of the crew now started to chime in with their own suspicions, and it wasn't long before the captain walked voer to see what the commotion was all about. When he heard about the accusation leveled against him, as well as the accusations leveled against hat oen crew member, he didn't waste time calling over the constables, and the unknown crew member was dragged away.
***
The mood on the shipyard was pretty good the next morning, the various members of the crew feeling more relaxed now that a likely saboteur had been caught. That good mood lasted until the captain called a meeting at his office. The smell of sewage emerging from the room clued everyone in that not all was as it should be.

"As I'm sure you can all smell, some joker rerouted the waste water plumbing into my quarters..." The captains voice was quiet and intense, a look of cold fury in his eyes. "The next shift won't end until you've found the culprit. Get out of here, and get to work!"

***

The unknown order has been arrested, they were a Village engineer

The captain's quarters have been sabotaged! Until it is repaired, a tied vote results in all people in the tie being dismissed.

The ship's search-lights spotted Quintessential following gears around.

A new message has been posted in the crew's mess:

Quote

H cj xck oqcvpsr sywrflxw.

improved part count: 0

players:

  1. Illwei
  2. Matrim's Dice as Philico
  3. Gears as Roko the Basilisk in the aspect of Fourth of the Dark
  4. Random Bystander
  5. Tani as Tevris
  6. Azmine_king
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity as 36th of the Tundra, who hopes to bring the secrets of airship travel back to their nomadic community so she can help them with future moves.
  8. The Unknown Order Village engineer
  9. Experience as Zara
  10. Sart as Fourth of Legend
  11. Szeth_Pancakes
  12. |TJ| as Sixth of Shade
  13. Archer as First of the Red Dawn, whose defining character trait is that he is ridiculously unlucky. 
  14. Biplet
  15. Jondesu as Second of the Passing Wind
  16. Quintessential

Vote tally:

Tani (2): Exp, Matrim
Illwei (3): Azmine, Szeth, Sart
Exp (2): TUO, Quinn
TUO (4): TJ, Biplet, Illwei, Tani
Gears (3): Jondesu, Tani, Devo

Edited by DeTess
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2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

@DeTess @StrikerEZ if the elim kill was blocked, I'm assuming that it wouldn't show up in the write-up. What about if the elim-kill hit someone with protection? Would that person appear as having been attacked but survived?

There aren't any roles with extra lives, and the two ways to avoid getting attacked involve not being there when the attack hits (because your bird warned you or because you are in the brig), so the attack wouldn't be mentioned in that case either.

edit: There are no rules specifically against code as far as I'm aware.

Edited by DeTess
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4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

There aren't any roles with extra lives, and the two ways to avoid getting attacked involve not being there when the attack hits (because your bird warned you or because you are in the brig), so the attack wouldn't be mentioned in that case either.

Does requesting Aviars come before or after kills in the order of actions? (that is, is it possible for someone to be saved by an Aviar C1?)

Edit: huh, and the Agent didn't improve any parts. I wonder what that means...

Edited by Quintessential
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Just now, Quintessential said:

Does requesting Aviars come before or after kills in the order of actions? (that is, is it possible for someone to be saved by an Aviar C1?)

A Sak will protect you for the cycle after you got it (and any cycles after that if the aviary gets sabotaged so you can't return it). So someone getting attacked C1 while also getting a Sak C1 wouldn't be protected by the Sak from that attack.

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Okay, so either A. the elims forgot to submit the kill? B. the elim submitting the kill got thrown into the Brig or C. the elims attacked someone who got thrown into the Brig. Any security officers out there... well, it's up to you whether you claim but it could provide us useful information. Alternatively, you could send an anonymous message this cycle saying who you blocked (but not who you are).

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@Illwei, concerning your confusion, I had originally thought Archer was suspicious for declaring he was suspicious of Tani and I, but then not voting. Then I realized that the post I thought Archer was sussing  us in was actually your post. So, using the same reasoning, you were suspicious. Also, Sart came up with some points that solidified my suspicions of you.

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