Elandera

Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

872 posts in this topic

Quinn 

Books 

Not only do I not want a tie, I was convinced by the overlap argument that Books just makes the most sense to kill.

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Eh, sure. Quinn, Books.

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7 hours ago, Azmine_king said:

Quintessential (1) - Szeth_Pancakes
Szeth_Pancakes (1) - vonnegut

If Quinn flips elim (even by proxy, through a v!Books), Szeth is village. Voted for an elim, was voted on by one. Plus iirc Quinn has been sussing them for a while. 

3 hours ago, Flyingbooks said:

Can somebody who took notes on D1 tell me if Araris was ever in any clear & present danger of being exed D1? Because if not, then it increases the probability of that being distancing.

He was certainly the top suspect in the first half, thanks to Quinn and lack of other leads. It was the kind of exe that could and did turn easily, but it was genuine pressure, even if it wasn't reflected by cast votes. Some people *cough Szeth* were suspicious but not willing to vote for him with what we had. 

19 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Not only do I not want a tie, I was convinced by the overlap argument that Books just makes the most sense to kill.

beep beep that's a bus

Just kidding. But I am assuming the 4th elim has to distance or die in this situation. 

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Maybe the overlap argument makes sense, but I believe that it is by far overshadowed by the action-evidence. The main evidence against Quinn being an elim is her push of an Araris exe, but that could easily be distancing. Meanwhile, I handed a protection item to Archer, which would have been a horrible decision if I was an elim. This isn't very good for my case, but I admit it does sound a bit like the sort of thing that I might do as an elim (see: LG73 Shadowblaze). However, it's far too extreme, even for me, if I was Danforth. If one of me or Quinn must be Danforth, then I I would not be an elim surveyor because e/e me/quinn is rather implausible. (from my point of view I know that am a villager, but I am trying to make this argument from the perspective of an outside observer who does not know my alignment for certain) Thus, I would have to use up 2 player night turns (instead of just the one that having the elim surveyor pass it, which would have the same theoretical increase in trust, would), decreasing kill versatility, risk failing to give Archer the totem, and make it more difficult to kill villagers in the future now that there's another protection item in circulation, all for a little bit of a potential increase in trust.

The cycle that I scanned Szeth and got no-action, they could have  had a Pallid Mask, concealing a theoretical kill action. 

My prediction for the remaining elim team is Quinn & Szeth

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About one hour left! This cycle will close at 5 p.m. PDT, even if I'm not around to close it (I should at least be able to hit it from mobile), but the rollover might take longer. I had a few things come up and will be away from my computer for a bit.

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Just now, Flyingbooks said:

@Ashbringer @Jondesu @Archer @Matrim's Dice (and, though unlikely, @Szeth_Pancakes @Quintessential), are you going to change your votes?

Someone’s desperate :P.

Were you scanned passing the item, or just said you did? The latter means your teammate could have passed it and you taken credit just as easy. It’s an alibi, but one that has just as many holes created as holes filled.

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Of course I'm desperate. I would very much prefer not to die.

And even if I wasn't scanned passing it, then it still wouldn't be a good plan for the elims because it'd give the village a protection item. Plus, in that scenario, the elim surveyor could have contacted Archer instead of me and there would not have been the possibility of a scan outing me. It's not a very plausible alternative, even you admit that that plan would have been full of potential holes where it could be discovered by scans, which everybody has access to.

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Mat, you were supposed to scan Books passing the item, but you decided you’d rather go insane instead :P

I would assume the Elims have some way of accessing Pallid Masks, whether Surveyor or otherwise.

And speaking of passing the Pendant... Books, why’d you give it to Archer and not to me?

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11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And speaking of passing the Pendant... Books, why’d you give it to Archer and not to me?

Because at the time, I was still a bit paranoid about the potential for an elim Silence, while I am totally confident in Archer being village.

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Well, I think it's going to end in a tie, since Archer and Danforth (who I'm currently assuming is Books, because of all the evidence) can give Books and Quinn one extra vote, respectively. If there's a tie, does no one get exed, or does it go to RNG?

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As I am not Danforth, it will not be a tie.

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Time! It shouldn't be too long for rollover.

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Posted (edited)

Flyingbooks was executed! They were a Surveyor and Expeditioner! They had a Hidden Transcript and Silver Dust!

Vote Count

Flyingbooks (5) - Matrim's Dice, Archer, Quintessential, Jondesu, Ashbringer
Quinn (1) - Flyingbooks

Player List

Spoiler

 

  1. Matrim’s Dice
  2. Gears Expeditioner Scribe
  3. Azmine_king
  4. Illwei Iron-willed Expeditioner
  5. Archer
  6. Quintessential
  7. Random Bystander Expeditioner
  8. Szeth_Pancakes
  9. Dannex Expeditioner Scribe
  10. Jondesu
  11. Ashbringer
  12. Araris Valerian Elder Things Worshipper/Shade Expert
  13. Vonnegut Elder Things Worshipper
  14. PizzaPower55 Expeditioner
  15. Flyingbooks Expeditioner Surveyor

 

This turn ends Wednesday, May 12 at 5 p.m. PDT.

Edited by Elandera
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What did I say, tsk tsk

Quinn dies tomorrow

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... so, anyone got a Crossbow?

(Don't answer that. You know what to do.)

 

Quinn, why haven't you been moving votes around? Vote manip is so much fun! :P

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Posted (edited)

6 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Quinn dies tomorrow

Why me? :rolleyes:

Edit: @Ashbringer Because I'm not Danforth, obviously!

Edited by Quintessential
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Just now, Quintessential said:

Why me? :rolleyes:

Why not you:D

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Posted (edited)

Quinn and Szeth! Stick em up!

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Quinn first :)

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11 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Quinn first :)

No, Szeth first! C'mon, even if you believe I'm Danforth (which I'm obviously not), Szeth is clearly still more of a threat! I mean, all of Danforth's actions have a 20% chance of failing, and their vote-manip isn't particularly useful if all the villagers vote for the same person. Besides which, I'm not Danforth, so obviously Szeth is a higher-priority target :) 

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12 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

No, Szeth first! C'mon, even if you believe I'm Danforth (which I'm obviously not), Szeth is clearly still more of a threat! I mean, all of Danforth's actions have a 20% chance of failing, and their vote-manip isn't particularly useful if all the villagers vote for the same person. Besides which, I'm not Danforth, so obviously Szeth is a higher-priority target :) 

You are... most definitely Danforth. Everyone except for you has gone insane at some point in the game.

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The 20% thing might be an almost valid point though :P.

But Szeth, are you actually a Surveyor? Or did you make that up to discredit Books?

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SNOOPS’ TRAVEL DIARY: THE FORREST OF DREAMS: DAY 46

I write today’s entry in a state of shock. Our group finds ourselves in the midst of a… religious disagreement. Two of our party have already revealed themselves to be Elder Things Worshippers. Fortunately, the majority of us follow a different path. After this adventure, I am now a stalwart believer in the Gods of Luck and Chance.

***

Obviously, the logic holds that Quinn is Danforth, so tomorrow’s vote is going to be a formality. She will submit the NK, so scanning isn’t going to tell us anything. After the next three rounds, we’ll be left without Quinn and two less than myself, Ashbringer, Mat, Azmine, Szeth, and Jondesu. That’s a 3:1 ratio. A mix brings us to 2:1, then the NK ties it. Fortunately, the elim wincon is outnumber, so if I’m the last man standing, we win. Otherwise, it’ll be a coin flip. So we probably will get one good shot at picking off the final elim, then hopefully luck will continue to be on our side.

I don’t have an action I can take tonight, besides risking insanity for a foregone conclusion. Maybe I’ll PM more people. I kinda stopped doing that when I thought I knew who was evil… I never suspected Quinn for a moment, so I think I’ll have to spend the next few days re-reading.

Some random notes:

-D1, Quinn voted for Mat and Araris, sussed me and Szeth, Nulled Azmine, and villaged Azmine (irrelevant individuals have been excluded). Since we know she was distancing from the get-go, it’s going to be difficult to figure things out.

-Araris claims to have scanned Quinn N1, while Quinn claimed to scan Szeth.

-Quinn’s action claim list is:

D1: Spied on Az and Illwei [NAI on Az, I pressured her to do it]
N1: Scanned Szeth
D2: Spied on Illwei and Mat

N2: Scanned Ash
D3: Spied on Araris and Mat [This is fakable]
N3: Scanned Dannex
D4: No action
N4: Scanned Books. [Also fakable]

-On a quick scan, Araris wasn’t in as much danger as I thought, although I still get good vibes from Azmine directing Szeth towards them. But Szeth and Jondesu voted for Quinn near the end of D1. To quote Szeth, “Oh, I thought it was weird how you were so quick to accuse Araris, and how it was seeming like you were trying to cover that up. It's far from proof, but it's more evidence than we have against anyone else.” Meanwhile, Mat held their vote in reserve. I think my suspicions are edging towards Mat being the final elim.

-Hey Quinn, if you were to have two players on your tennis team, who would you pick and why?

-I think a good topic of discussion would be how can we make a balanced elim team based on the pieces we know to be in play? People have been villaging Jondesu for having an extra life like Araris, and I agree, but we may be able to figure out more if we do a role reveal party. (I'm being unduly over confident again, aren't I) 

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2 minutes ago, Archer said:

I think a good topic of discussion would be how can we make a balanced elim team based on the pieces we know to be in play? People have been villaging Jondesu for having an extra life like Araris, and I agree, but we may be able to figure out more if we do a role reveal party. (I'm being unduly over confident again, aren't I) 

Yeah, that sounds like undue confidence to me. Granted, ya’ll know everything about me that there is to know, except of course no one else can be as confident as I am that I’m not Elim, but I don’t know that everyone revealing their roles is important or necessary. Let’s just get rid of Danforth!Quinn and go from there. I’m leaning Szeth for the final Elim if there’s another, but I may be tunneling and I want to think it over.

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