Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Quintessential]

53 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Can I have confirmation from @Quintessential or her correspondent please?

Yes, I can confirm that I had a PM that said roughly that. Though, I could just as easily have confirmed that you used a Hidden Transcript, since I scanned you N1 : P

 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

18 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Yes, I can confirm that I had a PM that said roughly that. Though, I could just as easily have confirmed that you used a Hidden Transcript, since I scanned you N1 : P

 

Who was the PM with? Could we also get confirmation from them?

[Quintessential]

25 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Who was the PM with? Could we also get confirmation from them?

Uhhh well it was from Illwei, so if you wanted to break the fourth wall, steal a Messenger from the other game, and have them send something to the dead doc, then maybe? But otherwise, no. Archer can confirm that I asked him to ask Gears to PM me, if you really don't trust that I'm telling the truth about something as small as this : P

[Szeth_Pancakes]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Uhhh well it was from Illwei, so if you wanted to break the fourth wall, steal a Messenger from the other game, and have them send something to the dead doc, then maybe? But otherwise, no. Archer can confirm that I asked him to ask Gears to PM me, if you really don't trust that I'm telling the truth about something as small as this : P

I trust you :). I just wanted to make sure everyone else did so that we can go for a unified Books lynch.

[Jondesu]

Szeth, that’s also incredibly convincing now. I feel like Books may have been lying and been caught in a mistake. I’ve got time to figure out whether to switch my vote again, but I very well might.

[Archer]

Can confirm I was asked by Quinn to ask Gears to PM them.

I can believe there being two Surveyors, but if there is, it's quite possible that there's one on each team, so Flyingbooks having the role is inconsequential. I'm still stuck on Quinn's attack of Araris D1, so I'll throw a vote on Flyingbooks. 

[Elandera]

5 hours ago, Jondesu said:

would temporary insanity from the idol show up the same as someone going insane from other actions?

That was poor wording on my part. The idol does not cause the mechanic of insanity. It just causes the vote to change.

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

is Danforth immune to the Insane condition, meaning Danforth can't show up as Insane at all? Or is Danforth immune to the effects of the Insane condition, meaning Danforth can still vote/use actions while Insane?

Danforth is immune to the condition.

[Ashbringer]

Good to know we're not tunneling down to a dead end 

(again... looking at you LG69...)

Two Surveyors. Interesting. Either of you manage anything fun?

[Jondesu]

So that makes Books’ claim plausible again. I don’t remember, did we see evidence of his vote being redirected? I don’t even know which day it was to check and I’m on mobile so it’s too tough to do right now.

[Ashbringer]

D3 there was a ghost vote on Vonne and one vote missing from Araris. That's either a Idol move, a Danforth Move, or a Secret Vote.

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

So that makes Books’ claim plausible again. I don’t remember, did we see evidence of his vote being redirected? I don’t even know which day it was to check and I’m on mobile so it’s too tough to do right now.

Hmm, I'll look.

I don't think Books ever said what Day they apparently dug it up, but it doesn't matter, because the answer is no :P. There is no evidence of Books' vote being redirected. The three cycles they voted their vote stayed the same, and the cycle they didn't it remained a no-vote while the rules specifically say it can change a no-vote to a vote.

Edit: Or maybe I'm dumb for looking only at the names. Ash is probably right.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Jondesu]

38 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

D3 there was a ghost vote on Vonne and one vote missing from Araris. That's either a Idol move, a Danforth Move, or a Secret Vote.

That does lend credence to Books’ claim then. It could have been one of the others, but Danforth isn’t going to claim of course, and no one has mentioned a secret vote nor would there have been good reason I can think of for doing that. I’m inclined to believe the claim that they’re a Surveyor, but as noted, that may be NAI, so now I’m frustrated in my attempts to pin down who I should vote for. I’ll come back to see if anyone can convince me.

[Ashbringer]

Well, now I’m wondering if Danforth moved a vote to allow for a “provable” Surveyor claim...

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Well, now I’m wondering if Danforth moved a vote to allow for a “provable” Surveyor claim...

And maybe specifically onto their least sussed teammate to make it seem more random? :P.

But yeah this doesn’t change anything for me. I still think there’s at least one elim in the Books/Szeth pool and one in the Books/Quinn pool, and killing the overlap makes by far the most sense. Books having a decently likely Surveyor claim doesn’t change anything because it could be Books/Szeth where Szeth is the Surveyor who’s vote was moved D3 and not Books’, or just what Ash said.

[Azmine_king]

Just looking at some vote counts, just realized I can't use red, green, or blue, so Purple=Scum, Gold/yellow = town.

Day 1 VC

Random Bystander (4) - Quintessential, Jondesu, Ashbringer, Araris Valerian
Flyingbooks (2) - Archer
Quintessential (1) - Szeth_Pancakes
Szeth_Pancakes (1) - vonnegut
Gears (1) - Illwei

Day 2

Jondesu (5) - Matrim, Archer, Quinn, Ashbringer, Araris
Araris (1) - Illwei
Quinn (1) - Szeth
Illwei (1) - Dannex
Matrim (1) - Jondesu
Szeth (1) - vonnegut
Ash (1) - Flyingbooks

Day 3

Araris (7) - Azmine, Quinn, Szeth, Dannex, Ashbringer, vonnegut, Pizza, Flyingbooks
Szeth (3) - Archer, Araris
Vonnegut (1) - — 

Day 4

Araris (7) - Azmine, Archer, Quinn, Szeth, Jondesu, Ashbringer, Flyingbooks

 

Besides how ugly this is I can't really gather anything that useful from it, maybe yall can connect something. Quinn has been on every lynch, but so has Ash so I'm not sure what to make of it, but it's something to keep in mind.

I don't really like how the votes evolved after I voted but I'm going to stay on Quinn.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

VC:

Books (3): Quinn, Mat, Archer, [Szeth]

Quinn (4): Azmine, Books, Jondesu, Ash

[] = insane

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

VC:

Books (3): Quinn, Mat, Archer, [Szeth]

Quinn (4): Azmine, Books, Jondesu, Ash

[] = insane

Azmine is also insane : P it should be

Books (3): Quinn, Mat, Archer, [Szeth]

Quinn (3): [Azmine], Books, Jondesu, Ash

[Mat]

...The major flaw with this is that Danforth gets to decide which way the tie goes :P.

I've made my case for Books, no need to say it again. But I'd suggest you guys cohesify the exe a bit more. I'll move if I need to but Books is mathematically the best option here.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

25 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Azmine is also insane : P it should be

Books (3): Quinn, Mat, Archer, [Szeth]

Quinn (3): [Azmine], Books, Jondesu, Ash

Oops :/

Forgot about that

Also, @Ashbringer and @Jondesu we need a consensus on who we're going to exe. What would it take to convince you to change your vote?

Edited May 11, 2021 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Azmine_king]

I keep forgetting when I go insane, if that could stop that would be nice.

[Flyingbooks]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...The major flaw with this is that Danforth gets to decide which way the tie goes :P.

I've made my case for Books, no need to say it again. But I'd suggest you guys cohesify the exe a bit more. I'll move if I need to but Books is mathematically the best option here.

Maybe mathematically, but not based on my actions. Giving a protection from elims item to a confirmed villager would be a bad idea for the elim!me, even more so for Danforth!me.

I am beginning to suspect that Szeth & Quinn are e/e if there are 4 elims. Szeth could cover up sending in a kill by saying that they got a hidden transcript & having Quinn tell them about what she talked about in some PM. 

On 5/10/2021 at 10:33 AM, Szeth_Pancakes said:

@Archer Do you want to coordinate votes? I think that would be useful for a coordinated village effort. also I don't want to be misexed

17 hours ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I trust you :). I just wanted to make sure everyone else did so that we can go for a unified Books lynch.

These posts strike me the wrong way. Maybe I'm just biased against my own exe, but they feel sort of... controlling? If you get what I mean.

Can somebody who took notes on D1 tell me if Araris was ever in any clear & present danger of being exed D1? Because if not, then it increases the probability of that being distancing.

 

[Ashbringer]

I've got no plans for leaving it tied near the end.

But I also don't have much time, and honestly would rather exe Quinn than Books... I haven't seen much in the way of points for either, and Books has decent potential to be a Surveyor.

(Particularly, Mat I don't understand your "math".)

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Flyingbooks said:

Can somebody who took notes on D1 tell me if Araris was ever in any clear & present danger of being exed D1? Because if not, then it increases the probability of that being distancing.

I think he was ahead at one point, but it would have been early and like a 2-1 lead.

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

(Particularly, Mat I don't understand your "math".)

Ok ok ok maybe I'm the only one to understand my thoughts.

We all agree that one of Books/Quinn is evil. Yes? Yes. Good.

Also, we should all agree that one of Books/Szeth is evil. Why? Two Surveyor claims, correct? I personally don't think there are two Surveyors, meaning one claim is false and comes from an elim. But, Archer proposed that there's an elim Surveyor alongside a village one, but not two village ones. I really don't think there are two village ones. Meaning that either way one of them is evil.

Killing the overlap here makes the most sense. Books flips elim, go from there. Books flips village, and Szeth/Quinn is... virtually confirmed.

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Books has decent potential to be a Surveyor.

Books claimed a Surveyor action, that's not the same thing. You said it yourself, it easily could be Danforth and a setup. But then there's the pendant that Archer now has- who's to say that eSurveyor!Szeth didn't pass it to Archer, giving the credit to Danforth!Books? Like, maybe that's my paranoia speaking, but it's certainly possible. Possible enough that it isn't enough to overturn the benefits of 'killing the overlap', as I put it.

Does that make sense? :P. Killing Quinn gives us info only on Books (is/isn't Danforth) and killing Szeth gives info only on Books (is/isn't Surveyor), while killing Books gives us both at once.

[Ashbringer]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

We all agree that one of Books/Quinn is evil. Yes? Yes. Good.

... yes.

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also, we should all agree that one of Books/Szeth is evil. Why? Two Surveyor claims, correct? I personally don't think there are two Surveyors, meaning one claim is false and comes from an elim. But, Archer proposed that there's an elim Surveyor alongside a village one, but not two village ones. I really don't think there are two village ones. Meaning that either way one of them is evil.

I could definitely see two Village ones, at least in general. It would have to be balanced by something, but we've already got one Elim Shade Expert which essentially let them ignore Shades if they can get away with missing Actions, which it seems they certainly have been.

And if we're going off of that logic, why would Elim!Surveyor!Szeth - who we know isn't Danforth now, and was thus off of a lot of suspicion - claim Surveyor? I asked for it, but honestly I wasn't expecting to get it.

I could also see both Books and Szeth being evil, with Danforth!Books claiming Surveyor, faking a vote move on themself, and then having Elim!Surveyor!Szeth pass an item to Archer. But that raises the same question.

Hmm. Is there a world where we've got Danforth!Quinn and E-Surveyor!Szeth?

[Mat]

47 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Is there a world where we've got Danforth!Quinn and E-Surveyor!Szeth?

Yeah, the world where Books flips village Surveyor :P. Which we can’t know until Books flips.