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Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness


Elandera

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6 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

This list feels problematic. Why? Because Mat wrote himself off as village. You need to consider yourself as a possibility if you're going to do an analysis like this - otherwise, you can't convince everyone else that this is correct.

Yeah I know :P. It was less trying to convince others and more me talking through it myself. I know my alignment for sure, and therefore I know yours based off a few safe assumptions. If people trust me then it heavily incriminates you because there's not really much else it could be, aside from a 3 person team.

6 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

PLUS, Ash is not confirmed vil. It's likely, sure, but he was one of the people who knew of the crossbow holder's identity. (Now that I mention is, so was Mat). Sure, that could have been leaked through some lucky PM spying, but it's worth considering.

Did he know Dannex's identity? I didn't think he did, but maybe... But he's been protecting without fail for a lot of cycles and I don't see how Silence would be elim with a Shade Expert. So yeah I'm considering Ash confirmed.

Noting that you seem to trust Azmine as much as I do when afaik I'm the only one to have an actual concrete reason to :P.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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3 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

This list feels problematic. Why? Because Mat wrote himself off as village. You need to consider yourself as a possibility if you're going to do an analysis like this - otherwise, you can't convince everyone else that this is correct. PLUS, Ash is not confirmed vil. It's likely, sure, but he was one of the people who knew of the crossbow holder's identity. (Now that I mention is, so was Mat). Sure, that could have been leaked through some lucky PM spying, but it's worth considering.

The point of Mat's thing isn't to convince the rest of us, it's to explain why he's voting the way he is. That being said, I don't necessarily agree with his choice of vote, since we have a pool of two people, one of whom must be elim. The logical thing to do would be to vote for one of those two people, rather than focusing on the rest of the group. 

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Just now, Quintessential said:

The point of Mat's thing isn't to convince the rest of us, it's to explain why he's voting the way he is. That being said, I don't necessarily agree with his choice of vote, since we have a pool of two people, one of whom must be elim. The logical thing to do would be to vote for one of those two people, rather than focusing on the rest of the group. 

For someone who isn't me, yeah. But it's the same as you immediately writing off Books as Danforth, we don't have any proof of that but you do. Or you have proof that he isn't, but either way. For me Szeth is actually the safest option.

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Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

For someone who isn't me, yeah. But it's the same as you immediately writing off Books as Danforth, we don't have any proof of that but you do. Or you have proof that he isn't, but either way. For me Szeth is actually the safest option.

My point, Mat, is that I would expect villagers to be focusing on the high(er) chance of hitting an elim within [me, Books], rather than trying to look outside those two--perhaps to protect a teammate? >> Obviously I wrote off Books as Danforth, because I know I'm not elim. You don't know that, so I can't fault you for voting me if you think I'm more likely to be Danforth than Books, but I can find it odd that you're ignoring the easiest opportunity to catch an elim, in favor of looking for one who may not even exist, depending on the number of elims at the start.

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1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

My point, Mat, is that I would expect villagers to be focusing on the high(er) chance of hitting an elim within [me, Books], rather than trying to look outside those two--perhaps to protect a teammate? >> Obviously I wrote off Books as Danforth, because I know I'm not elim. You don't know that, so I can't fault you for voting me if you think I'm more likely to be Danforth than Books, but I can find it odd that you're ignoring the easiest opportunity to catch an elim, in favor of looking for one who may not even exist, depending on the number of elims at the start.

I personally think there's a higher than 50% chance that Szeth is elim. So that's what I'm doing, focusing on the highest chance of hitting an elim. I don't blame anyone else for not following me because they don't have the point of view where I know I'm village :P. So in my eyes I'm not ignoring the easiest opportunity to catch an elim, I'm pursuing it. But it's only the easiest opportunity for someone who knows I'm village :P. So when Szeth probably doesn't get any more votes I'll probably switch to one of you two.

The point about the one not even existing is fair though :P.

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10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah I know :P. It was less trying to convince others and more me talking through it myself. I know my alignment for sure, and therefore I know yours based off a few safe assumptions. If people trust me then it heavily incriminates you because there's not really much else it could be, aside from a 3 person team.

Did he know Dannex's identity? I didn't think he did, but maybe... But he's been protecting without fail for a lot of cycles and I don't see how Silence would be elim with a Shade Expert. So yeah I'm considering Ash confirmed.

Noting that you seem to trust Azmine as much as I do when afaik I'm the only one to have an actual concrete reason to :P.

Well, I trust Azmine because both you and him can't be elim at once. Elim!you wouldn't have any incentive to lie about this, so the only possibilities are that both of you are elim, elim!Azmine is lying, which you said is unlikely, and again, elim!you wouldn't have reason to lie about this, or that elim!you is telling the truth.

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Aye, we exe one of Books or Quinn here. To me, Elim #4 could be anyone who isn't Ash, Archer, and I guess Jondesu (because 2 extra lives is nearly a 6-person team in a 15-player game). That leaves the non-Danforth Quinn/Books, Mat, Azmine, and Szeth, and we can likely narrow things down from there. But getting rid of that vote move (or any secret redirect abilities, yes) is probably better.

If anyone's going to decide which, I'd prefer Archer do it, though.

This is finals week for me (!!!!) so don't expect me to do too much... I should be around enough to post/vote/action/etc but that's had a habit of not happening when I get busy.

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4 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Need to read up from D4 but for now, I think Quinn is a decent lynch.

Why Quinn? Remember that she rather aggressively pursued an Araris lynch D1. She could have been bussing, but I think Books is a better option for now.

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1 minute ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Why Quinn? Remember that she rather aggressively pursued an Araris lynch D1. She could have been bussing, but I think Books is a better option for now.

Im going to look more closely at the two of them but for now, I just feel like Quinn went unaccounted for too long, its a bit of gut.

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8 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Im going to look more closely at the two of them but for now, I just feel like Quinn went unaccounted for too long, its a bit of gut.

Unaccounted in what regard? If you're referring to the drop in activity, that was/(is?) due in part to my addiction to Netflix shows and in part to the other game that's started. If you're referring to actions, here are all of the actions I've taken this game:

D1: Spied on Az and Illwei
N1: Scanned Szeth
D2: Spied on Illwei and Mat
N2: Scanned Ash
D3: Spied on Araris and Mat
N3: Scanned Dannex
D4: No action--at this point I didn't think PM-spying would really do anything.
N4: Scanned Books.

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Ugh, I just read through the thread today again and everyone’s arguments, and Books has me convinced. His argument about passing the pendant and the required processes involved are very compelling, while Quinn has less evidence on her side. Sorry, but I have to switch.

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19 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

I am the Surveyor, and I did dig up a forbidden idol that day. 

Since I know that I'm not an elim, Quinn.

...Doesn't the Forbidden Idol render you insane?

We would know if you went insane, because it would prove you innocent.

I know my vote doesn't count, but... Books.

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3 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Doesn't the Forbidden Idol render you insane?

Hmm, the rules are different from normal insanity.  Their vote gets redirected randomly, instead of them edit: not being able to vote.
 

@Elandera, would temporary insanity from the idol show up the same as someone going insane from other actions?

Edited by Jondesu
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... I assume so. I don’t know why it would be called the same thing if it didn’t.

Books at least until we get an answer. A Danforth exe is best today and catching them in a lie is a pretty solid way of finding who’s who.

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... one second.

@Elandera, is Danforth immune to the Insane condition, meaning Danforth can't show up as Insane at all? Or is Danforth immune to the effects of the Insane condition, meaning Danforth can still vote/use actions while Insane?

Quinn claimed roleless to Archer if I remember correctly, so I'd rather exe her than our only Surveyor claim. Anyone want to Counter, now's the time.

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1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

... one second.

@Elandera, is Danforth immune to the Insane condition, meaning Danforth can't show up as Insane at all? Or is Danforth immune to the effects of the Insane condition, meaning Danforth can still vote/use actions while Insane?

Quinn claimed roleless to Archer if I remember correctly, so I'd rather exe her than our only Surveyor claim. Anyone want to Counter, now's the time.

I guess this is probably a good time - I would also like to claim Surveyor. I dug up a Hidden Transcript back in D1, and used it N1. The conversation it revealed was nothing revealing - it was two people talking about how one of them said they weren’t going to PM very much (I’m assuming that was Quinn) and the other one was saying that they sure had a lot of PM’s despite that statement. There was a line about how telling Archer to tell Gears to make a PM with the first person “didn’t count.”

Can I have confirmation from @Quintessential or her correspondent please?

Edited by Szeth_Pancakes
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@Szeth_Pancakes directly quoting PMs is illegal. You can summarize but not quote exact wordings, which that looks like. 

We might be wrong about there being four elims. The non-Quinn/Books pool could be entirely village. So I think it's best to focus on those two, for the guaranteed return. Beyond saying that, I'm not inclined to whip any votes. Flyingbooks and Quinn are obliged to vote for each other, and only one other person is evil maximum. We can have a reasonable discussion and figure this out together. (Plus, I have a feeling I've been very wrong at some points in this game.)

 

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Just now, Archer said:

@Szeth_Pancakes directly quoting PMs is illegal. You can summarize but not quote exact wordings, which that looks like. 

We might be wrong about there being four elims. The non-Quinn/Books pool could be entirely village. So I think it's best to focus on those two, for the guaranteed return. Beyond saying that, I'm not inclined to whip any votes. Flyingbooks and Quinn are obliged to vote for each other, and only one other person is evil maximum. We can have a reasonable discussion and figure this out together. (Plus, I have a feeling I've been very wrong at some points in this game.)

 

Oh frig. Sorry. Changing it now.

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Hmm

Its realistic to say that one of Books/Szeth is elim. It’s also realistic to say that one of Books/Quinn is elim.

I dunno about you guys, but killing the overlap seems like a pretty darn good bet to me.

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