Elandera

Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

872 posts in this topic

So I just logged on for the first time tonight, and I’m not surprised that everyone’s very suspicious of me. In retrospect, I was acting very suspicious C1 and C2.
 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I think the Randy CW D1 was supported by Araris to save Szeth, who was at risk. And he's got to be Danforth, so it makes sense that they'd be the last person to get caught, as he's their most valuable role. 

Don’t forget that I wasn’t the only one in trouble here. Araris also had a significant train of votes on him. Plus, I didn’t vote for Randby D1. If Araris was really doing that to protect me, he would have told me that in the elim doc and I would have gotten on the Randby train too. If I weren’t me, I would agree with your Danforth suspicions. It has to be either Quinn, Books, or me, and the former two seem very vil right now. Quinn aggressively called for a D1 Araris lynch (something I didn’t support), and Books’s straightforward logic feels very vil to me. However, I encourage you to scan me first. Is there anything I could do to prove myself not to be Danforth? I don’t think there is, but if anybody has any ideas regarding proving me vil, that would be welcome.

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To be completely honest I have half a mind to take no action tonight and let you guys take care of the scans so as to not risk going insane because geez RNG hates me this game

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Speaking of which, Szeth, Flyingbooks, and Quinn, if two of you could plan on going insane, that'd be really helpful. Try speaking in gibberish and spinning in circles a lot. Or check out one of the Alcatraz books from your local library and read all the footnotes, if you're feeling bold. 

@Azmine_king who do you plan on scanning? 

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Ah man, I'll need to read up before I make a decision. Any suggestions?

Also going to make an epic post to make up for my inactivity tomorrow.

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20 hours ago, Azmine_king said:

Ah man, I'll need to read up before I make a decision. Any suggestions?

Also going to make an epic post to make up for my inactivity tomorrow.

Probably scan Mat or Szeth since we have only one confirmed scan on each I think. Up to you, of course, but some redundancy on them would be helpful.

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That's time! Good luck!

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Journal of Thankful Dolittle
Geology Graduate at Miskatonic University

Forest Expedition
Day 46

(((writeup to be added later)))


No one has died!

Azmine_King has gone insane!
Szeth_Pancakes has gone insane!

Player List

Spoiler
  1. Matrim’s Dice
  2. Gears Expeditioner Scribe
  3. Azmine_king
  4. Illwei Iron-willed Expeditioner
  5. Archer
  6. Quintessential
  7. Random Bystander Expeditioner
  8. Szeth_Pancakes
  9. Dannex Expeditioner Scribe
  10. Jondesu
  11. Ashbringer
  12. Araris Valerian Elder Things Worshipper/Shade Expert
  13. Vonnegut Elder Things Worshipper
  14. PizzaPower55 Expeditioner
  15. Flyingbooks

This turn will end Tuesday, May 11 at 5 p.m. PDT.

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That’s both good and bad. We don’t get as much info, but we didn’t lose anyone.

I spied on Szeth as planned. They spied on someone else.

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I didn't take an action :P. Didn't want to go insane and figured you guys had the scans covered.

It appears that Szeth is not Danforth. Cool. Does that mean they're cleared, or could they still be elim? I can't remember what that means >.<

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Well I was wrong! Sorry, Szeth. 

Mat didn't do anything last night. But that's not very informative since there was no kill. 

Either Quinn or Flyingbooks is Danforth. Someone want to flip a coin? If the elims have given up on kills, we can just kill them both and still have time to track down the fourth. Which now that I think of it, Szeth totally could still be. But my Mat read is stronger. 

I'm leaning towards Flyingbooks being the elim because of the Araris-Quinn interactions D1. This is exciting! New twists have emerged! 

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4 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

That’s both good and bad. We don’t get as much info, but we didn’t lose anyone.

I spied on Szeth as planned. They spied on someone else.

“We didn’t get as much info?”

We now know that I am not Danforth!

So, either Quinn or Books is. My mind is telling me to go for Books because of Quinn’s D1 pursuit of an Araris vote, but my gut is telling me that Quinn was bussing, and to vote out Quinn. It doesn’t really matter what I think, since I’m insane, but I thought I would share some of my opinions.

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1 minute ago, Archer said:

Which now that I think of it, Szeth totally could still be.

Okay that's what I thought but I wasn't sure :P. I guess that virtually confirms them elim then, huh, since I know I'm village, unless there's some... severe shenanigans going on with like Jondesu or Azmine or something. So yeah I guess I'd still be just fine with a Szeth exe.

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm leaning towards Flyingbooks being the elim because of the Araris-Quinn interactions D1. This is exciting! New twists have emerged! 

Do you want to go for Danforth first, or does it not matter? Because I'd rather exe Szeth then try to wrap my head around this, but I'd probably support either of these. I'm basically deferring to what you guys say at this point xD

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@Quintessential, if you do not post this turn, you will be replaced by a pinch-hitter!

Also, general announcement! We are getting down to few enough players and the end of the game, I will no longer be calling up pinch-hitters after this cycle.

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Danforth is the priority target, right, because they can redirect actions and that's scary? Plus we've got a guaranteed elim exe within two cycles, whereas technically looking elsewhere has lower odds. I've said... a lot to Quinn. But I've only had one PM exchange with Flyingbooks so here's a fun convo from Night 3 y'all can analyze:

Me: Do you have a spellbook and would you be willing to use it on Araris?
Flyingbooks: No. Actually my plan tonight is to yeet you this NK blocking pendant.
Me: Thanks! But could you send that to Ash instead?
Flyingbooks: I'd rather not. I'm still a bit suspicious of them.
Me: cool

And then Archer proceeded not to ask any followup questions, happy to have gotten some swag 

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1 minute ago, Archer said:

because they can redirect actions and that's scary?

...Pretty sure they can't? Are you thinking of the Spellbook? :P.

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

And then Archer proceeded not to ask any followup questions, happy to have gotten some swag 

At what point was Ash's claim? It was... before, but like at what point was he confirmed confirmed?

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Archer, how many times do I have to say it’s a vote move and not a redirect....

Unfortunately, I think the three people that confirmed my protect actions were... Quinn, Books, and Vonne. Fun. But Quinn confirmed me in-thread D3 (the item pass happened N3 iirc), and I’ve been doing the same action every cycle in case anyone else wants to check.

(Side note: I didn’t block a kill, the Elims didn’t put one in/Danforth put it in and it failed.)

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Posted (edited)

I can confirm that Quinn scanned me tonight.

If there are 3 elims, then there is no way that I could have acquired the pendant that I passed to Archer. If there are 4 elims and I am Danforth, then an elim surveyor would have had to have used a night turn to pass it to me and then I spent a night turn passing it, which would be a total of 2 night turns with decreased versatility for kills in exchange for giving the village better protection against elim kills. Furthermore, the pass would have had a 20% chance of failing, which would have let Archer know that I'm Danforth. Overall, this would be an absurdly risky, costly gambit for the elims to take with very little reward, so me being elim (especially Danforth) makes no sense.

Edited by Flyingbooks
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... points taken, but why is it confirming if Quinn hasn't posted yet?

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*blink* I guess I forgot to post last turn, huh. 

Yes, Books did scan me (I scanned them). Also Books. The rest of you can flip as many coins as you want, but I have the fortunate advantage of knowing which of us is Danforth already :P I'd also be fine with voting out Mat, if that's the exe that gets more traction, but since Books is (for me) confirmed elim and Mat isn't, I'm putting my vote here first.

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7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

At what point was Ash's claim? It was... before, but like at what point was he confirmed confirmed?

This was late in the day, after Ash was outed Silence and no one really questioned it. In retrospect, I'm getting Elim Plan to Bribe Archer vibes. 

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Archer, how many times do I have to say it’s a vote move and not a redirect....

AAAAAAAAAAAAH

STILL SCARY THOUGH

MAYBE THERE'S SECRET RULES ONLY I KNOW ABOUT

6 hours ago, Flyingbooks said:

If there are 3 elims, then there is no way that I could have acquired the pendant that I passed to Archer. If there are 4 elims and I am Danforth, then an elim surveyor would have had to have used a night turn to pass it to me and then I spent a night turn passing it, which would be a total of 2 night turns with decreased versatility for kills in exchange for giving the village better protection against elim kills. Furthermore, the pass would have had a 20% chance of failing, which would have let Archer know that I'm Danforth. Overall, this would be an absurdly risky, costly gambit for the elims to take with very little reward, so me being elim (especially Danforth) makes no sense.

Or you could have started with it, although did you claim vanilla at some point? I can't remember. Good point about the possibility of failure though. 

We know there's a surveyor out there because they had their vote moved that one day. Wanna tell us who you are and if you handed Flyingbooks some swag? Or shoot me a PM whisper. 

By the way, Mat and Szeth not being e-e is still wild to me. I guarantee, Surveyor, for all the digging you've been doing, I've been tunneling harder. :P. 

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8 hours ago, Flyingbooks said:

If there are 3 elims, then there is no way that I could have acquired the pendant that I passed to Archer. If there are 4 elims and I am Danforth, then an elim surveyor would have had to have used a night turn to pass it to me and then I spent a night turn passing it, which would be a total of 2 night turns with decreased versatility for kills in exchange for giving the village better protection against elim kills. Furthermore, the pass would have had a 20% chance of failing, which would have let Archer know that I'm Danforth. Overall, this would be an absurdly risky, costly gambit for the elims to take with very little reward, so me being elim (especially Danforth) makes no sense.

I mean. Couldn't you have just started with the Pendant? :P. Is that out of the question? (Apparently Archer also said this. I should read the whole thread before commenting)

I don't think being vanilla prohibits you from getting items. Maybe that's not what Archer meant though.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

This was late in the day, after Ash was outed Silence and no one really questioned it. In retrospect, I'm getting Elim Plan to Bribe Archer vibes. 

...Yeah... I could see that...

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

but since Books is (for me) confirmed elim and Mat isn't, I'm putting my vote here first.

Taking a page out of Quinn's book here- 

Player list: Me, Archer, Ash, Quinn, Books, Szeth, Jon, Azmine.

People that are confirmed village: Me, Archer, Ash.

People that are very likely village: Jon (extra life), Azmine (hehe secret)

People that are left: Quinn, Books, Szeth

There is one elim in here: Quinn, Books

Leaving: Szeth for the fourth. No? I guess there could not be a fourth, or I guess technically Azmine could have been lying to me, though I don't really get the point of that. Could Quinn/Books be e/e and just be laughing their heads off? That's something to be paranoid about xD

I'd probably be convinced to vote for Books or Quinn too. Probably the former quicker than the latter, but I'm likely gonna end up on whatever train has the most people cause I have no clue.

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So what tells us that Szeth isn’t Danforth, rather than simply hiding his identity by spying instead of using his role action?

I think Szeth is more likely still, but I might could be convinced to switch to Quinn or Books.

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1 minute ago, Jondesu said:

So what tells us that Szeth isn’t Danforth, rather than simply hiding his identity by spying instead of using his role action?

Danforth can't go insane.

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53 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Danforth can't go insane.

Ooh. Forgot that. 
So yeah. Szeth 

I think I feel more trusting of Quinn right now that Books, so there. Just feeling from their posts rather than specifics, but Quinn has felt more villagery from their tone and comments.

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2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Taking a page out of Quinn's book here- 

Player list: Me, Archer, Ash, Quinn, Books, Szeth, Jon, Azmine.

People that are confirmed village: Me, Archer, Ash.

People that are very likely village: Jon (extra life), Azmine (hehe secret)

People that are left: Quinn, Books, Szeth

There is one elim in here: Quinn, Books

Leaving: Szeth for the fourth. No? I guess there could not be a fourth, or I guess technically Azmine could have been lying to me, though I don't really get the point of that. Could Quinn/Books be e/e and just be laughing their heads off? That's something to be paranoid about xD

I'd probably be convinced to vote for Books or Quinn too. Probably the former quicker than the latter, but I'm likely gonna end up on whatever train has the most people cause I have no clue.

This list feels problematic. Why? Because Mat wrote himself off as village. You need to consider yourself as a possibility if you're going to do an analysis like this - otherwise, you can't convince everyone else that this is correct. PLUS, Ash is not confirmed vil. It's likely, sure, but he was one of the people who knew of the crossbow holder's identity. (Now that I mention is, so was Mat). Sure, that could have been leaked through some lucky PM spying, but it's worth considering.

Here's a more concrete list, based on public facts.

Player list: Szeth, Archer, Ash, Quinn, Books, Jon, Azmine, Mat

Confirmed Village: Archer

Very likely Village: Jon

Likely Village: Ash, Azmine

Remaining: Mat, Szeth, Quinn, Books

One elim in here: Quinn, Books

Mat, Szeth, and either Quinn or Books (the one that's not Danforth) could be elim #4.

If all else fails, we should consider Ash and Azmine seriously.

Plus, there could only be 3 elims - meaning that the only one left is Danforth. Maybe think about that possibility before you hastily vote me out.

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